Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/28/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
856 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 A band of snow showers is moving southeastward across the eastern plains this evening. This band is heaviest across Lincoln and southern Elbert Counties and will make for poor travel conditions on I-70 east of Limon this evening. This band should move out of our CWA by around midnight with accumulations between 1-2 inches across the far eastern plains. Water vapor imagery shows a dry intrusion progressing eastward across the central mountains this evening. Mid and upper level clouds have dissipated behind this dry intrusion leaving scattered low level clouds behind. With the drier air moving in, we considered canceling the Winter Weather Advisory for the Park Range. However, the limited observations and webcams that are available in the area haven`t shown a drastic improvement in road conditions so the Winter Weather Advisory will be left to expire at midnight. Low temperatures across the urban corridor and plains were increased tonight due to the cloud cover and high relative humidities. Most areas should see lows in the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 GOES-16 water vapor showing a well defined vorticity maximum moving east-north east across south central Colorado. It`s moving at a fairly good clip with a well-defined edge to the upward forcing getting ready to move across the Grand valley in western Colorado. The best synoptic-scale forcing should remain to the south of our area until the far eastern plains when the northern edge skirts southern Washington/northern Lincoln Counties. A frontogenesis band sets up across this area, coincident with the best QG forcing late afternoon into the evening. The HRRR has latched onto this feature and generates about a quarter inch of liquid through midnight across this area. From the Palmer Divide east and northeast out to about Holyoke, and southeast of there should be where the best precipitation occurs. 1-3 inches with the potential for 4 are possible across that area. With road temperatures currently in the mid 40s, wet and temporarily slushy roads are the only expected impacts along this band. Elsewhere, from Denver northward to Wyoming, and north of I-76, precipitation chances are slimmer. There will be a lot of virga and at times wet pavement, but the showers will be hit or miss and shouldn`t amount to much QPE. Roads are plenty warm to just remain wet through this evening. Do feel that any precip that falls would be in the form of snow. Best chance is from now through 6 PM. Further east closer to Kansas, precip may stick around until midnight. In the mountains, the snowfall has been light throughout the day so far after a robust start across the lower elevations of western Colorado. Area web cams continue to show wet roads across the highest mountain passes along and in the vicinity of I-70. Can`t rule out a moderate, brief snow shower through about 10 PM as the trough axis moves across the area, but at this point travel impacts should be minor. Additional accumulation of 1-2", maybe 3 are possible until then. Further north across the northern Front Range and Park Range, orographics and moisture is better but lapse rates continue to be poor, and getting poorer with time. This will limit amounts, with the most snow expected across the Rabbit Ears Pass area, with an additional 3-5" possible through around midnight. By late morning Tuesday the trough is in Oklahoma, and the entire state is under decent subsidence. Skies should clear out and become mostly clear throughout the day, with no precipitation expected. Despite the dry northwest flow, some warm advection will occur throughout the atmospheric column, going from -12 to -7 degC at 700 mb. Thus, highs will be seasonal in the mid to upper 40s across the plains, with 20s to near 30 in the high country. West winds 25G35 mph are possible at and above 10 kft MSL, but light winds across the I-25 corridor should occur throughout the day, with some northwest winds across far eastern Colorado 12G20 mph or so. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 No significant adjustments planned in the extended period. The next system will pass mainly to the west and south of the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with weak mid level QG Omega passing over the forecast area. A cold front associated with this system will move across the I25 corridor and northeast plains Wednesday evening, with weak north to northeast post frontal winds in the low levels. In the mountains, 24-hr snowfall totals in the 2-5 inch range. Weak orographic potential Wednesday and Wednesday night as mid level winds will be light with more of a deformation zone over CO. The upper trough will be over central AZ/NM by 00Z Thursday and into old MX by 12z Thursday. Snowfall totals over the foothills and Palmer Divide, should be light with anywhere from a trace to 2 inches. Generally isolated to scattered snow showers across the I25 corridor and adjacent plains Wednesday night with no accumulating snowfall expected. Thursday and Thursday evening, lingering residual moisture and better mid level winds may allow for some light orographic snowfall in the mountains along the higher north/northwest facing slopes but dry elsewhere. Friday through the weekend, it will be dry and warmer as a ridge of high pressure builds over the western U.S. The high temperature in Denver by Sunday could close in on 70 degrees. It will be cooler on Monday with the next storm system expected to drop northwest to southeast across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring snow to the mountains and could produce light snow to the i-25 corridor and northeast plains as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 809 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 All precipitation has moved southeast of the terminals this evening and dry weather is expected through Tuesday. Low level moisture remains in place as dew point depressions are between 1 to 2 degrees. This will create some haziness with visibilities possibly dropping to 5 miles from time to time. Ceilings should stay above 8 kft before a dry intrusion clears skies out around midnight. Winds at DEN will be tricky as there is low confidence that northeast winds will develop around midnight. It is possible weak drainage flow persists through the early morning hours. Tomorrow, northerly winds will develop before veering easterly around sunset. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ031. && $$ UPDATE...Danielson SHORT TERM...Schlatter LONG TERM...Cooper AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions with a mix of clouds from time to time through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region during Tuesday, bringing a batch of colder air. Ocean effect rain and snow showers may develop across the eastern waters late Tuesday and Tuesday night especially near eastern Cape Cod and Nantucket. Temperatures will be rather mild tonight, but will be much colder by Tuesday night after the front moves offshore. Dry conditions with closer to seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the work week. Still watching for the potential for a coastal storm which may impact the region for the weekend, though it remains far from a certainty. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update... Increased cloud cover overnight. As with the previous update think it will be tough to shake the cloud cover. May be able to once a shortwave slides offshore after midnight. Have also increased overnight low temperatures a few degrees based on the cloudier forecast. Previous discussion... Infrared and nighttime microphysics RGB imagery shows considerable wrap-around moisture/clouds across much of Southern New England in cyclonic flow aloft. This cloudiness really extends northward across a good part of New England and into Quebec as well. While flow is downslope (WNW/NW), suspect that clouds will be tough to fully shake free from. Following upward (moister/more clouds) trends in the 18Z NAM and the past few runs of the RAP guidance, used those as a basis for increasing sky cover through overnight areawide, but particularly for northern and western MA. These results in skies from partly cloudy to overcast. May be some spotty sprinkles or flurries falling through the clouds at times, with some snow pellets/snow grains reported earlier in the Canton CT area; however, significant sub-cloud dry air with sizable dewpoint depressions will make any flurries or sprinkles the exception versus the rule. I also warmed temperatures up some through early-overnight to account for the increased cloudiness and continued at least modest NW winds permitting limited radiational cooling. Most areas should be at or below freezing in the interior by pre-dawn, and just above that in RI and eastern MA/Cape Cod. If clouds linger, current lows in the mid-20s to low-mid 30s may be too cold and could need an adjustment upward in later forecasts. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday... Another mainly dry cold front will shift S out of central New England during the day. However, short range models are indicating this front may stall close to or just into the Route 2 corridor of N Mass by late Tuesday morning. Even with the slow moving, albeit dry, front moving across, colder air will work in during the remainder of the day as H85 temps drop to -7C to -10C and H925 temps fall to -3C to -5C by late in the day. Another question for the day will be whether a band of ocean effect precip develops as winds veer to N-NW during the afternoon across portions of the mid and outer Cape as well as Nantucket. Some question amongst the hi res model suite as to where the band positions itself as it develops late in the day. At this point, looks like the band will start off as rain during the afternoon as temps are forecast in the upper 30s at around 18Z-19Z. Temps should fall to the mid 30s by 00Z. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies to start, but clouds will work southward as the front moves across. Also, as the winds become northerly, will see the most clouds develop across the eastern waters, which will move across the Cape and islands during the afternoon. Overall, expect temps to top off several degrees cooler than today, ranging from the 30s across the higher terrain to around 40 elsewhere, but readings will start to fall after 18Z as the colder air moves southward. Tuesday night... As the colder air works across the region Tuesday night, with H85 readings dropping to -6C to -9C by around 09Z, the coldest temps will lie across E Mass as well as the Cape and islands. With these cold temps and the northerly wind trajectory, will see the ocean effect rain quickly change to snow. Current forecast suggests this should occur by around 02Z and last through most of the night before tapering off during the pre dawn hours. QPF amounts should be around 0.1 inches, highest across the outer arm of the Cape. Based on this, could see some light snow accumulations, possibly up to an inch. Clouds will linger across central and eastern areas as well as the E slopes of the Berkshires, but could see partly cloudy conditions from N central Mass through the CT valley into N CT. Expect lows in the mid teens to around 20 across the higher terrain to near 30 across outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. These readings, while still around 5 degrees above normal, will run a good 5 to 7 degrees below tonight`s lows. With the northerly winds at around 10 mph, except up to 15 mph or so across the Cape and islands, wind chill values will drop to the single digits across the higher terrain to the teens to around 20 elsewhere toward daybreak. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Dry conditions with seasonal to slightly above normal temps through Fri. * Still monitoring for a potential storm next weekend, but uncertainty remains high Details... Tranquil stretch of weather for the rest of the workweek as ridging both at surface and aloft builds across Southern New England. A weak shortwave trough will dig southward from eastern Quebec through much of New England during the latter part of Wednesday; though it will be a dry passage and its only real influence will be to induce a shot of cooler air (925 mb temps -8 to -11C per ECMWF, not exactly cold but a colder airmass than seen recently) for Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then shifts off the coast later Thursday, affording more of a milder southerly flow Thursday night into Friday. Overall looking for seasonable temperatures with good diurnal ranges, with mostly sunny skies during the day and clear/calm nights. Highs in the mid-upper 30s for Wednesday, with the coldest day being on Thursday with the cooler thermal profiles (low to mid- 30s); warming back into the mid 30s to lower 40s for Friday. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights into the teens to lower 20s; while lows Friday night in the mid 20s to near freezing. Saturday into Sunday: Still a considerable degree of uncertainty on the forecast for the weekend, as models continue to simulate a coastal low pressure near the Carolinas on Saturday. While today`s guidance has shown some tendency for a south/east-of-the-benchmark track, the exact track and resulting impacts remains uncertain. Phasing of trough energy in the northern stream (digging south from the Canadian Prairies) and southern stream (South Texas into the Gulf Coast states) will prove critical in determining how close to Southern New England this potential storm system may get. Today`s deterministic model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF indicate this phasing occurs late, with resulting deepening occurring south and east of the 40N/70W benchmark. These more offshore solutions have some support (a loose majority) from their respective ensemble members (EPS, GEFS). This would verbatim bring a glancing blow to the east and southeast coasts with little if any QPF in the interior, instead supporting a colder/largely dry northwest flow. Only the Canadian GEM brings a larger extent of the precip shield back far enough west to permit some impacts across a larger spatial area later Saturday into Sunday (on the western end of the guidance). While today`s guidance indicates a more offshore track, there does remain a number of members in the 12z GEFS and 12z EPS that are closer to the benchmark; given this and the evolution of this potential system hinging on aforementioned phasing, it still is too early to lock into any solution. Lack of antecedent colder air also opens the door for continued questions on p-type. Given the above, and that were are still a good 6 days out with guidance highly probable to change in subsequent days, think it is prudent to side the official forecast fairly close to continuity, with maybe a slight decrease in PoP in the interior given the SE track. Chances for snow/rain are thus indicated for all locations. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows in the 20s. Monday: Some uncertainty exists on Monday depending on how weekend developments transpire. Most guidance indicates dry conditions under high pressure, with temperatures remaining near to slightly above seasonal normals. Were any snowpack to be around, again contingent on what may happen over the weekend - could see some pretty chilly overnight lows. Stuck more closely to a guidance blend for this period. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Short Term...High confidence. Rest of Tonight: Leftover lower-level moisture looks to be tough to fully scour out, resulting in SCT- OVC VFR ceilings (bases 040-060) the rule for tonight. Greatest coverage furthest north and west. Winds WNW-NW around 6-12 kt. Tuesday... VFR most areas. May see MVFR CIGS develop across the E slopes of the Berkshires by midday as well as move into portions of E coastal Mass. Isold -SHSN possible across higher terrain of NW Mass, and SCT -SHRA across the outer Cape. N-NW winds 10-15 kt, highest along the E coast. Tuesday night... VFR most areas. MVFR CIGS across E slopes of the Berkshires and E coastal Mass. MVFR VSBYS in mixed SHRA/SHSN through 03Z- 04Z, changing over to -SHSN across the mid and outer Cape terminals which should end by around 10Z. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance SHSN. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. Through 00Z...W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Dry conditions. Seas 4 to 6 ft on the open waters. Good visibility. Tonight...NW winds 15-20 kt early, diminishing to around 10 kt by around midnight. Seas up to 4 to 6 ft on the outer waters then subsiding after midnight. Dry weather and good visibility. Tuesday...N-NW winds 10-15 kt. Scattered rain showers during the afternoon across the eastern waters from Nantucket to Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Mainly dry elsewhere. Seas lingering at around 5 ft E and S of Cape Cod, otherwise 4 ft or less. Dry weather and good visibility. Tuesday Night...N-NW winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern waters. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered rain showers early, changing to snow showers across the eastern waters from east of Boston Harbor to near and east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Mainly good visibility, except 1 to 3 nm in vicinity of snow showers. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/EVT NEAR TERM...BL/Loconto SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...BL/Loconto MARINE...BL/Loconto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
803 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low will slowly depart across the Canadian Maritimes tonight, but will still maintain low overcast conditions and scattered snow showers overnight. An additional coating to 2 inches of snow will be possible through early Tuesday morning, and a few icy spots are expected as temperatures fall into the 20s. Thereafter, high pressure will build eastward from northern Ontario, bringing drier weather and more seasonable temperatures through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 803 PM EST Monday...Quick update to introduce patchy/areas of -dz/-fzdz mixed in w/occnl light snows into the overnight hours per recent report from eastern Chittenden County and Pierre-Trudeau Intl in Montreal also reporting very light -fzra. Model sounding profiles are quite mixed, showing the dendritic snow growth zone going in and out of a saturated vs. unsaturated state overnight depending on the solution, though most recent HRRR output seems to be leaning toward the latter. Light snow accumulation forecasts were not changed with this update owing to uncertainty in future coverage of any -dz/-fzdz. The rest of the forecast in regard to cloud cover, winds, temperatures etc. also remain unchanged at this point. Prior discussion... A moist cyclonic flow prevails across the North Country on the swrn periphery of departing deep-layer low over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A low overcast and periods of light showers will continue this afternoon through tonight, and 18Z radar trends indicate an increase in radar reflectivity across nwrn VT nwd into srn Quebec. PBL temperatures are marginal for snow in the valley locations, thus continued with the idea of a light rain/snow mix at times in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. As we get past sunset, low-level thermal profiles cool sufficiently that we should see just snow showers across the region, and a better chance at some accumulating snow at the lower elevations. It does appear based on 12Z BTV-4kmWRF that orographically blocked flow will become an increasing factor overnight, with Froude Numbers falling below 0.5 along the western slopes of the Green Mtns after 02Z. This is also reflected in the NAM-12 forecast sounding at BTV, with a slight increase in hourly snowfall rates late this evening through about 12Z Tuesday. Have increased PoPs upwind of the Green Mtns on the VT side of the Champlain Valley as a result as we head through the evening hours. Still a minor event overall, with total snowfall accumulations through 12Z Tuesday of a dusting to 2" in most locations, including 1-2" around BTV and points east. May see 2-4" across the higher summits of the nrn Adirondacks and central/nrn Green Mtns. Also, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s tonight, will see some developing icy spots, so drivers should exercise caution tonight and into the morning commute time frame on Tuesday. On Tuesday, snow showers will taper off to mountain flurries and a few breaks are expected to develop in the overcast with loss of cyclonic flow aloft and diminishing mid-level moisture. NW winds of 5-10 mph expected overnight into Tuesday bring modest low-level CAA, and temperatures several degrees colder for Tuesday. Highs are expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Surface high pressure builds ewd across northern Ontario on Tuesday night. Should result in a quiet night across the North Country. Lows mainly in the teens, but single digits above zero are expected across the northern Adirondacks and far nern VT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Monday...A 1030 mb surface high will sink south across the North Country on Wednesday which will cut off any lingering light snow showers along the higher terrain. Although this high pressure has origins over northern Hudson Bay in Canada, the cold air remains locked up in the arctic which will keep afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday right around normal with readings in the lower to upper 20s. Wednesday night, however, looks on the chilly side as the surface and boundary layer will decouple shortly after sunset which will allow winds to become light and variable while skies continue to clear. Overnight lows in the single digits above and below zero are expected, with the coldest temperatures expected across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Some of the hi-res guidance shows 10-15 knots of due northerly flow right off the deck Wednesday night which could create some lake induced clouds across parts of the Champlain Valley given the lack of ice coverage on Lake Champlain. This could cause temperatures in a few locations to remain in the teens overnight with the possibility of a few flurries but otherwise should have little impact on the forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday...High pressure will remain entrenched across the North Country on Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies expected across the region. The air mass underneath the high pressure system will continue to moderate with high temperatures on Thursday in the lower to upper 20s and in the mid 20s to mid 30s on Friday. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer Thursday night with lows in the single digits above zero and in the teens Friday night. The next chance for any type of measurable precipitation won`t occur until Saturday afternoon as a complicated system approaches the region as high pressure departs to the northeast. There will be two separate waves of energy with the first forming over the Gulf of Mexico and the second developing over the Mid-West. The Gulf of Mexico system will likely be the stronger of the two systems but it looks like it`s going to pass well to our south and east into the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty amongst some of the ensemble members but the majority show this system pushing east of benchmark which would follow the pattern so far this winter with both positive NAO and AO currently being observed. This would likely keep us as spectators as all precipitation would likely be east of Vermont. The second wave will move across the Mid-West Saturday morning and track into New England Saturday night/Sunday morning. This wave will be enhanced by a closed 500 mb low that will help bring the return of some snow showers. Moisture will be extremely limited with the first system over the Atlantic shunting the majority of the moisture offshore. Nevertheless, it looks like 1-4 inches of snow will be possible with the highest amounts along the western slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains. The upper level trough will swing through Monday with upper level ridging building in Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures will continue to moderate over the weekend with temperatures on Sunday warming into the lower to mid 30s across all of the North Country. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wedesday...Mainly OVC skies expected over the next 24 hours under light north/northwesterly flow in the 3-7 kt range. Cigs to range mainly MVFR to VFR, though some occnl IFR in light snows/snow showers likely to occur here and there through the evening/overnight hours, mainly at KBTV and KSLK. After 18Z Tuesday a gradual trend toward VFR at valley sites of KMSS/KPBG/KBTV expected. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
740 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 Light snow is falling generally along and west of the CO/KS border north of the interstate as a weather disturbance approaches. Snow will expand in coverage from west to east with visibilities as low as one mile. Latest available guidance is advertising snowfall totals of 2 to 3 inches for all but the far east and southwest portions of the area. WPC showing 40 to 70 percent chance of at least 2 inches. Felt it was best to get an advisory out despite being potentially a marginal event. Luckily winds will be light. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 318 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 The main forecast concern in the short term period is on snowfall amounts tonight through early Tuesday morning. With temperatures across the north and east remaining cooler today than previously expected, and warmer than expected over the far southwest, the distribution of rain/snow as it initiates across the forecast area has been modified somewhat from previous forecasts. Widespread snow amounts ranging mostly from 2 to 3 inches are now expected between tonight and mid day Tuesday with localized max snowfall amounts around 3 inches showing up along a line extending from central Yuma county to Gove county. The HRRR earlier this morning was advertising much higher total snowfall amounts over northeast Colorado, which was concerning and bore watching, but was also somewhat of an outlier. That max area has since diminished somewhat and traveled more eastward over northwest Kansas, which is more in line with what the larger scale models were showing in their latest runs. Confidence in measurable precipitation is high and is reflected in the area of definite PoPs that traverses the CWA tonight, but the total precipitation and snowfall amounts are still somewhat lacking in confidence. As a result, confidence was still not high enough in snow amounts of 3" or greater to need an Advisory. Localized amounts of 3 are still possible, although the snow probability graphics are still showing 25th to 75th percentile snow amounts of T-3" across a large part of the forecast area with no location coming up with more than 3". Snow should be done in Colorado around midnight tonight with locations over Nebraska and Kansas continuing through Tuesday morning, diminishing from west to east through the morning. As light snow continues over the far eastern sections of the forecast area around mid-day on Tuesday, there is a possibility of the light snow changing back to light rain before it diminishes completely. Dry conditions are expected beyond Tuesday afternoon with some clearing Tuesday night. As skies clear, there is a possibility of some areas seeing fog develop, especially over areas of fresh snow cover. Confidence in any one area will depend heavily on sky cover, which is low right now, so did not end up introducing any fog at this time Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 The extended forecast will remain mainly dry with unseasonably warm temperatures. A deamplifying upper ridge over the High Plains will move east through the day Wednesday with an upper trough extending from the western part of the Dakotas to southwest of the Four Corners region. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40s and lows will range from the upper teens to mid-20s. Thursday, a cutoff low will develop south of the Four Corners region with split flow setting up. The southern trough will be situated over Northern Mexico while the upper split will be over the Tri- State area. The pattern will become a little more active as an upper level shortwave trough embedded in the trough will progress east. A second shortwave trough will move through the Tri-State region Thursday night into Friday morning with northwest flow aloft over the region. Dry conditions will persist Thursday and Friday with a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to mid-50s on Friday. Saturday and Sunday, a ridge over the Western U.S. will shift east into the region. Warmer temperatures are expected across the region through the weekend. Saturday temperatures will range from the mid-50s to low 60s for highs and upper 20s to mid-30s for lows. Sunday highs will range from the mid-60s to low 70s. Relative humidity values are expected to be in the teens to low 20s in Eastern Colorado in the afternoon. Sustained winds at this time will be around 10-15kts. With the low RH values, dry vegetation in the region, warm temperatures, and marginal winds, Sunday afternoon will need to be monitored in the coming days for possible fire weather concerns. Monday, a cold front will move through the region. Temperatures will be much cooler, ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s. Monday night holds a very slim chance for moisture as a mid-level trough approaches the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 440 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 KGLD, sub vfr cigs/vis expected with light snow from around 02z- 13z as a weather disturbance moves through the area. Winds generally from the east at speeds of 10kts or less. After 14z sub vfr cigs are expected through about 18z with winds becoming northwest and increasing with gusts around 25kts expected. After 19z vfr conditions expected with northwest winds continuing to gust in the 25-30kt range. KMCK, sub vfr cigs/vis expected through about 20z. Light snow expected from around 03z-15z with some fog through 19z. Winds generally under 10kts. After 21z vfr conditions are expected with northwest winds near 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-042. CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Tuesday for COZ090-091. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Tuesday for NEZ079. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
723 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 - Chance of snow showers late tonight and Tuesday - Fairly quiet this week with occasional light precipitation && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 -- Chance of snow showers late tonight and Tuesday -- A 500 mb vorticity maximum and 850 mb cold pool over northwestern Ontario will dive through Michigan late tonight into Tuesday. This should allow boundary layer inversion heights to increase and cool off just enough for lake-enhanced snow showers to increase tonight into Tuesday. The DGZ will remain unsaturated above the inversion, so substantial snow amounts are unlikely and flake size should be rather small. Global models are wringing out a few hundredths of an inch of QPF by Tuesday evening west of US-131, while the NAM-3km and HRRR are depicting narrow swaths of QPF around 0.10 inches where bands of showers train downwind of a shoreline convergence zone. We can`t rule out that amount of precipitation, but a majority of locations won`t see that much. This translates to a thin coating of snow and mainly west of US-131 but locally a half to 3/4 inch of snow. Surface temperatures will be marginally cold enough to support snow and slick spots Tuesday morning, then marginally warm enough to promote melting in the afternoon. Showers should end Tuesday evening as shortwave ridging re-establishes and surface winds shift northeast. -- Fairly quiet this week with occasional light precipitation -- No significant sources for precipitation are present much of this week, as upper level flow is split and weak over the region and low- level baroclinicity is weak. There are several upper level shortwaves within this flow regime, though their reflection on the surface is minimal, and they seem to mainly serve as a lift to the dry air in the midlevels, which results in little tangible weather occuring at the surface. Precip chances will increase by the weekend as an energetic north Pacific jet propagates into North America and an amplifying Alberta-clipper-like trough digs into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 718 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Low clouds will remain in place for the forecast period as little motion in the extensive cloud shield over the Great Lakes Region is expected. There were some holes in the shield...but any breaks should not last long. Some lowering of the bases is expected the IFR could increase somewhat...but for the most part...MVFR ceilings should prevail. We will need to monitor the light snow/drizzle risk. Radar shows a few patches of precipitation dropping down from the northwest and but not many sites show that it is reaching the ground. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Generally 1 to 3 ft waves are expected today into Tuesday and fairly calm conditions continuing through mid-week. Northwest winds up to 15 knots are expected through Tuesday. The next chance of conditions hazardous to small craft should hold off until at least Friday or the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 River levels remain well above normal (90th percentile) for January, with several still above bankfull but short of flood stage. This week`s weather is favorable for allowing rivers to crest and begin falling without much incident. While not much snow is on the ground in the Grand/Kalamazoo basins, the amount of water that is locked up in the snowpack is quite substantial (1 inch of water per 2 inches of snowpack). A slow meltoff during the week should reduce the rate of fall of the rivers, keeping levels well above normal as we head into February. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAS DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...CAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
909 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of weak disturbances will cross the region in northwest flow through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the northern Great Lakes during the middle of the week as a cold front drops south from New England and low pressure passes well to the south near Georgia. A larger area of low pressure may approach from the Southeast U.S. Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The main forecast updates tonight revolve around cloud cover in the moist northwest flow, with nearly-solid overcast extending into Canada and back to the northern Plains. A shortwave trough/vorticity axis is pivoting across the area this evening. After that passes, it`s possible there`s enough subsidence to allow some clearing with south/eastward extent (with more of a downslope influence as well). However, am not convinced we return to totally clear skies any time soon, especially given RAP RH cross sections. Will be taking a look to see if low temperatures need to be adjusted upward any as a result, not to mention there could be a slight surface wind remaining through the night. Other than a brief sprinkle, and precipitation should be limited along/west of the Allegheny Front in the upslope regime. Moisture depth is shallow, so accumulations should be minor. It also may mean there could be a bit of freezing drizzle/mist, but do not foresee widespread travel impacts at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... In general, high pressure will be building toward the area through the middle of the week. Embedded in northwest flow ahead of the high, however, will be another weak disturbance Tuesday. Drier air squashes any threat for precipitation east of the mountains (with minimal chances along the Allegheny Front). Due to the continued northwesterly winds, temperatures should trend closer to, if not slightly below normal Tuesday through Wednesday night thanks to a dry backdoor cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure should keep conditions cool and mainly dry Thursday through Friday, though a disturbance passing to the south could bring some light precipitation to the Allegheny highlands/I-81 corridor Thursday. A low pressure system over the Southeast U.S. could impact the region Friday night through Saturday night. Confidence remains low at this time as to the scale of impact. The later model guidance suggests some wintry precipitation moving into the region Friday night and Saturday morning, then a secondary low pressure system from the west bringing a chance for a mix of rain and snow showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The exact track of either or both of the low pressure systems remain highly uncertain. The possibilities of a wintry impact range from a weak system suppressed far to our south with little to no precipitation across the region, to a major coastal low tracking either along the coast or out to sea. For now, we have low end chances for precipitation advertised throughout the weekend. We will monitor trends in the guidance throughout the week and gradually focus in on a solution as we move closer to the event. For Sunday through Monday, it appears no matter what the track and outcome of the low pressure systems are, a milder and drier pattern appear to be in store with high pressure becoming established farther to the east in the U.S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR ceilings FL040-080 will likely continue through much of the night and could occur at times through Tuesday in a moist northwest flow regime. There is a low chance (probably less than 20%) of brief MVFR conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly at MRB. It does seem like wind gusts should be diminishing for the night now, but will pick up again and gust to 15-20+ knots mid-morning (14-15Z) Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday night through Friday night with NW flow becoming NE by late Thursday, generally at or below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Northwesterly winds continue across the waters. There has been a a surge this evening with numerous (but generally brief) gusts up to 20-25 knots. It does appear the narrower waterways are beginning to stabilize nocturnally, confirming the brevity of the event. Will have to keep an eye on the wider waters for potential adjustments to the advisory, but will otherwise let the conditions described below prevail. A weak disturbance will cross tonight, and with air temperatures cooling that component of mixing will not be as much of a factor. Therefore, anticipate more widespread/frequent gusts in excess of 20 knots from late this evening through Tuesday morning. The more sheltered waters of the middle and upper tidal Potomac River, Baltimore Harbor and the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay may not have gusts quite as high or frequent due to narrower trajectories over water, so have opted to leave them out of the advisory for now. Winds may see a brief uptick over all marine zones right after daybreak Tuesday before the wind field diminishes Tuesday afternoon. A second weak disturbance will cross tomorrow evening. Although the attendant wind field will be weaker, more of a northerly channeling component to the low-level flow could result in gusts in excess of 20 knots over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ531- 532-539-540-542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
534 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 401 PM EST MON JAN 27 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a split flow pattern with the northern Great Lakes dominated by a relatively weak northern stream. A mid/upper level ridge was building over the central Great lakes but a shortwave trough or compact mid level low was sliding sse through northwest Ontario toward Lake Superior. At the surface, weak northerly flow prevailed between a ridge over the Eastern Plains and a low near the Canadian Maritimes. Even with a shallow moist layer to near 5k ft and 850 mb temps only around -8C, mainly snow has been observed. Tonight, as colder air (850 mb temps dropping to around -11C) and slightly deeper moisture arrives with the upstream shrtwv, expect light lake enhanced snow to increase for nnw flow favored locations. However, with only marginal instability, any accumulations will remain light, generally around an inch or less. With clouds lingering, look for min temps above guidance, from around 20 inland to the mid 20s near the Great Lakes. Tuesday, as the shrtwv over eastern Lake Superior early slides off to the southeast, expect the light northerly flow lake enhanced snow to diminish by afternoon. 850 mb temps around -11C should still support enough ice nuclei to minimize any fzdz chances. Less than an inch or additional accumulation is expected. Otherwise, under cloudy skies temps will remain near highs from recent days in the upper 20s to around 30. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 258 PM EST MON JAN 27 2020 For those longing for colder, more "winter-like" temperatures we`re going to have to wait at least one more week. While we will have a very minor cool down through mid-week, overall temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Through mid-week daytime highs look to top out in the mid to upper 20s, with a warming trend towards above freezing throughout the weekend. As for overnight lows, the coldest nights/pre-dawn temperatures look to be Tuesday night and Wednesday night as temperatures look to fall into the single digits across the far east and the interior west, elsewhere temperatures will probably only fall into the teens. Much like the daytime highs, overnight lows will gradually warm into the 20s throughout the weekend. Overall, precipitation chances look slim through mid-week, perhaps some light freezing drizzle/snow showers Tuesday night across the north. Wednesday through Thursday night looks dry as the tail-end of surface ridging, associated with high pressure centered in Ontario pushes northeast into Quebec. There could be some clearing of skies across the far east on Wednesday, as drier, downsloping easterly winds briefly becomes established off of Canada. Otherwise, expect the cloudy conditions to persist. A shortwave arrives on Thursday, but overall there doesn`t look like much in the way of good moisture to produce anything other than maybe some flurries. Opted to not include mentions of flurries in the forecast that far out though. Lingering sheared out vorticity than lingers into Friday across the region, with a stronger shortwave digging south across the Midwest. As this next wave tracks across the region, warm air advection will increase Friday into Saturday, so we could see some very light snow develop late Friday into Friday night. Then, another shortwave is progged to dig south across the region, bringing better chances for widespread light snow Saturday into Sunday. Overall, these waves look to be removed from any deeper, moisture (esp. those coming up and over the Rockies), so not expecting any high-impact snow events to end the week, just overall light snow. Sunday into Monday, another wave looks to dig south across the region, but the placement and timing of this wave will need to be monitored to determine if any additional precipitation will be possible. With a highly amplified ridging looking to build into the region quickly behind this shortwave that could end up shutting down precipitation chances a bit sooner than currently reflected in the forecast, or at a minimum keep any lingering chances for precipitation for late weekend/early next week more closely tied to any shallow, upslope/onshore flow from Lake Superior. Continuing to look out a bit further, the upper-level pattern remains highly amplified across the CONUS as longwave troughing tracks across the central CONUS by middle parts of next week. This will favor a transition from the above-normal temperatures to what will likely end up being below-normal temperatures for the middle of next week. How long this colder air will hold on, remains to be seen. Will need to monitor the potential for any impactful winter weather and winds during this transition, depending on where the resulting surface low tracks and if we will be warm enough aloft to create p-type issues. However, this pattern would favor the return of lake-effect snow to some of our snow belt areas, especially given the lack of overall ice on the big lake. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 533 PM EST MON JAN 27 2020 Persistent low level moisture over the region will result in mainly MVFR conditions for most of the forecast period which is the highest category that it has been in a while. Upslope northerly flow will also continue to support some light snow. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 401 PM EST MON JAN 27 2020 Winds expected to remain light, at or below 20 knots through the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020 Large scale pattern consisting of an upper ridge situated over the High Plains with a shortwave trough following close behind over the the northern/central Rockies. Meanwhile, extensive cloud cover was seen across the region. Surface high pressure was in control across the Central Plains. Tonight through Tuesday morning Latest HRRR and RAP are advertising that the thick cloud cover will hang on tight through the overnight period over the region. Tuesday afternoon and evening Aforementioned shortwave trough currently over the northern/central Rockies will across the Central Plains and be the focus for precip activity. Bufkit soundings indicate that the column will be cold enough for the dominate precip type to be snow. However, given that moisture will be lacking, amounts will be on the light side with an inch or less expected. Wednesday through Sunday Dry conditions will prevail as an upper ridge builds in. This will allow for a decent warming trend with highs going from the upper 20s/low 30s on WEdnesday to the mid 40s/low 50s by next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020 MVFR ceilings will continue through this TAF cycle with some patchy fog possible, reducing visibilities to IFR at times. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DEE AVIATION...Kern
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
415 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 307 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 KRIW radar imagery showing persistent area of light to moderate snow shifting south and east from the southern Bighorn Basin. HRRR has a decent handle on the progression of this snow, moving it out of much of Fremont County between 3 and 4 PM. Attention will then shift to Natrona and Johnson counties where light to moderate snow is anticipated to continue to increase through about sunset. Shortwave energy within an upper trough traversing the northern Rockies will lend support. Div-Q fields still show weak lift across the I-25 corridor Monday evening. Thus, the snow will linger longest over far eastern Natrona County before winding down between 7 and 9 PM. Clearing that has occurred over the lower elevations west of the Continental Divide will progress east later Monday evening. One bit of concern with this scenario will be the melting snow Monday afternoon contributing to increased boundary layer moisture. Decreasing clouds would allow for better radiational cooling and the possible development of valley and basin fog. For now, will go ahead and add patchy fog to the overnight and Tuesday morning forecast. Shortwave ridging will replace the departing trough by Tuesday morning. Upper flow backs to the southwest allowing for the return of Pacific moisture ahead of the next incoming trough. Weak isentropic lift will begin in the west late Tuesday morning with mainly light snow over the mountains. The isentropic lift will peak Tuesday afternoon and early evening with the snow spreading across the western valleys too. Locations east of the Continental Divide will see dry conditions with a pressure gradient favoring 20 to 30 mph southwest wind in central Wyoming. Shortwave energy and dynamics will then dominate through the late evening and overnight as the isentropic lift wanes. Cold air advection will bring 700mb temperatures down to around -10C/-11C by 12Z/Wednesday across the west. This will enhance snowfall production in northwest flow aloft. Cyclonic flow at 700mb and a weak frontal boundary should be enough to generate areas of light snow in the northern Bighorn Basin. Southwest Wyoming bears watching as the energy within the approaching trough may take a track to our southwest that would favor the potential for snowfall in that region. Therefore, have increased snow chances across the far south and far north early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be seasonal for many areas through the short term. Warmer than average temperatures are again likely in the eastern foothills of the Absaroka and Bighorn ranges and the snow-free areas of the Bighorn Basin Tuesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 307 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 The next round of snow will be moving east of the Divide by Wednesday morning. Additional accumulations on Wednesday west of the Divide will be minor, while areas east will see up to an inch or so. Locally higher amounts are likely (especially in the Bighorns and Casper Mountain) but nothing significant is expected from this system. The messy upper flow pattern will continue through the end of the week, with another embedded shortwave likely bringing more snow to western Wyoming on Thursday. Models continue to suggest modest ridging will set up by the weekend which would bring a reprieve from the snow. In fact, 700mb temperatures are currently progged to be in the 0 to +6C range during the weekend. This would likely mean many locations would see their warmest temperatures of the year so far, especially in Johnson County where temperatures could approach 60F. As is usually the case in warmer winter days, wind would also be a factor in this scenario. Additionally, the GFS has now come into agreement with the ECMWF on not only the warmer/windy weekend, but on a widespread winter event beginning early Monday. This would be in the form of a strong cold front sweeping into the area, and with northwest flow/favorable jet dynamics both sides of the Divide would have a good chance of significant snowfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 408 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Conditions have improved across western terminals, although some light snow will linger in the mountains tonight with partial mountain obscurations possible. The next system will move in to far western Wyoming after 20z Tuesday. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals Conditions have improved at most terminals, although snow and low ceilings are expected to continue at KCPR through around 03z. A gusty wind will develop at KCPR after 17z Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued AT 307 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020 Accumulating light snow will persist into Monday evening across central Wyoming. Elsewhere, conditions will become drier as a trough of low pressure shifts to the east of the region. These dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening east of the Continental Divide. To the west, Pacific moisture will begin to spread into the Teton and Yellowstone dispatch areas by midday Tuesday. The heaviest snow is likely to fall from mid-afternoon Tuesday through sunrise Wednesday. Mountain snowfall will generally range from 3 to 6 inches with up to around 8 inches in the Teton Range. This weather system will push east of the Continental Divide late Tuesday night with light snow spreading into the northern portions of the Cody and Casper dispatch areas as well as southwest Wyoming. Drier conditions arrive for all areas by Wednesday night. Gradually warming temperatures are anticipated through the weekend with readings well above normal in the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County. The next chance for widespread snowfall comes next Monday as a weather system brings moisture and colder air to the forecast area. Smoke dispersal will be best over the weekend given the warm temperatures and the likelihood of increasing west wind, especially Sunday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CNJ LONG TERM...Myers AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...CNJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .UPDATE... Latest RAP and surface analysis shows a closed surface low about 80 or so miles west of Tampa. A stalled frontal boundary extends across Central Florida. Low-level southwest flow is resulting in weak isentropic upglide along this boundary, leading to low-topped sprinkles north of the I-4 corridor. These will dissipate by midnight as the low drifts southeast and drier, northerly wind prevail across much of the area. The dense cloud cover will shift farther south as the low approaches SW Florida overnight. A sprinkle also cannot be ruled out across this area but overall very low chances. Otherwise, slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected tomorrow with highs in the 70s... Very minimal changes were needed to the ongoing forecast tonight. && .AVIATION... 00Z Issuance... VFR expected with the exception of southern terminals where lower CIGS are possible through the overnight hours, causing periods of MVFR conditions. Winds out of the northeast generally AOB 7 knots. && .MARINE... An isolated sprinkle or two over the waters through remainder of the evening. As the low moves southeast over the Peninsula, northeast winds will briefly reach cautionary levels overnight across the central offshore waters... A second weak surface low will move across the northeast Gulf waters late on Wednesday with a chance for showers possible. A stronger low will move into the region Friday into Saturday with marine hazards possible, especially behind the system as high pressure builds in across the Gulf. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 54 70 53 72 / 30 0 0 30 FMY 57 75 56 75 / 10 0 0 10 GIF 53 71 49 75 / 30 0 0 20 SRQ 54 73 54 74 / 20 0 0 20 BKV 48 72 46 74 / 30 0 0 30 SPG 54 69 54 71 / 30 0 0 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...29/Delerme