Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/27/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
557 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
High zonal polar jet across the Pacific becomes split and perturbed
over the CONUS making our local forecasting rather challenging as of
late. Pattern resulting in milder airflow overall with influx of
Pacific air but ingested disturbances passing off of the northern
extension of polar jet throwing wrenches into the works. As such,
GOES-East this afternoon was very busy looking with various cyclonic
circulations across Canada/northern CONUS. GOES showing that closed
low that gave the area light snow last few days now progressing
eastward and now over NY. Meanwhile, several other smaller cyclonic
circulations where rotating southward on it`s western periphery. One
was over eastern IA with nothing resulting other than increased mid
cloud over the widespread stratus entrenched across the area.
Another circulation was moving through ND. Models take this wave and
light snow/freezing drizzle chances just west of our area
tonight/Monday morning before dampening/washing out as it progresses
through IA/MO/southern IL. Meanwhile, could be enough moisture in
the column across central/eastern WI tonight for a few patches of
light freezing drizzle per RAP soundings. Otherwise, clouds will be
hanging around the area tonight and will help to keep lows tonight
in the lower/mid 20s.
Weak ridge of high pressure drifts overhead Monday but forecast
soundings/0.5-1km RH show an abundance of moisture trapped under the
inversion. So, another cloudy day on tap with highs in the 30-35
degree range.
Yet another mid-level wave of low pressure drops south out of Canada
into the region Monday night. Weak lift with this wave may produce
some light snow grains or freezing drizzle mainly east of the
Mississippi River as forecast soundings show top of cloud in the -8
to -10C range. Not expecting much more than trace amounts but will
have to watch for the possibility of traces of some light glaze
going into the Tuesday morning commute. Plan on overnight lows in
the upper teens to mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
A stronger ridge of high pressure builds in Tuesday during the day.
Soundings showing occasional thinning of the stratus in place, so
could see a few peaks of sun but looks mostly cloudy overall. Look
for highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will see another mid-level trough move
through the area along with another chance of some light snow or
flurries -looking very minimal at this point with main pv-forcing
staying south of the area.
Quasi/modified Pacific northwest flow and mid-level wave train
continues through Saturday. This brings a high degree of uncertainty
on timing/intensity/resulting precipitation of incoming waves. Model
consensus is carrying low-end/spotty precipitation chances through
the period. As mentioned earlier looks like overall milder then
normal temperatures otherwise with highs in the 30s and lows in the
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
IFR conditions are expected at KRST tonight and Monday, with LIFR
ceilings possible at times tonight/Monday morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected at KLSE this evening, lowering to IFR overnight.
Challenging forecast tonight, as a large area of dense fog/low
visibilities is currently being observed just west of KRST as of
0Z. This area has been moving very slowly east, with IFR ceilings
likely to move back into KRST shortly. There is lower confidence
on whether IFR/LIFR visibility fog will make it east to KRST, as a
subtle shift to light northerly winds tonight may be just enough
to keep it west. Therefore, only MVFR visibility reductions were
kept for KRST for the first part of tonight. Trends will have to
be carefully monitored for possible updates/reductions to
IFR visibility if fog pushes farther east than anticipated. There
are hints that LIFR ceilings/IFR visibility fog may eventually
develop at KRST during the morning, and have kept that in the
current TAF. KLSE has a lower risk of fog tonight, as better
moisture/current foggy areas are well to the west. Still, light
winds and continued ample low level moisture may lead to gradually
lowering ceilings into IFR again tonight. Similar to today, both
TAF sites may see improvement in ceilings by late Monday
morning/early afternoon with daytime influence.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Lee
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
524 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
The main forecast concern tonight into Monday was yet again fog,
but this time over the central and eastern sections of the
forecast area. Another forecast concern was on FZDZ potential over
the northwest Leaned toward a blend of the 26.18z HRRR and RAP
for timing of the dense fog to redevelop this evening.
Hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory for the southeast late tonight
through midday Monday, but certainly could see this expanded
further north if the shortwave anticipated to move south across
the state is slower than forecast. The latest HRRR/RAP suggest fog
to develop b/t 02-04z and really thicken quickly during this time
over the central and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Forecast soundings saturated up to around 850mb with light winds
and some fog remaining across the CWA, should quickly thicken this
evening with the sunset. Confident fog will linger through much
of the morning Monday as per this morning with little to no flow.
The shortwave that looks to pass through b/t 06-12z Monday over
western Iowa will provide just enough lift to support mention of
FZDZ across the northwest for a short hours during this period. No
mention of any snow attm as ice introduction doesn`t appear
likely or at least for a limited time. Low confidence with
widespread impacts from the FZDZ in the northwest due the short
duration of the precip.
Tuesday through Sunday...Generally quiet weather for much of the
week and even into next weekend. GFS and ECMWF are flip-flopping
on solutions for weak shortwave Thursday into Friday. The
remains differences in timing and location. Regardless of which
model wins out, the system remains weak with little QPF and
forcing available.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Widespread dense fog is possible across much of the TAF sites
region tonight along with LIFR cigs. These conditions will likely
persist through much of Monday morning and potentially much of
the day as light flow will not help much scouring the fog/cigs
out. Best chance for improvement will be over the far north where
some drier air will arrive but event there confidence remains low.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Monday
for IAZ074-075-083>086-094>097.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Donavon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
953 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Expanded the dense fog advisory to include more of the area west/south
of the Quad Cities /roughly CID-BRL axis/ based on trends -- westerly
flow advecting in lowering visibilities, reservoir of very low
surface dewpoint depressions, and proximity to higher low level
moisture with dew points in the upper 20s to near 30F. The dense
fog advisories are out through 10 am, but it`s quite possible late
tonight through daybreak Monday we could see improvement in
visibilities develop, as low level flow turns northerly advecting
in slightly lower dewpoints.
UPDATE Issued at 810 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Have expanded the dense fog advisory to include Buchanan, Benton
and Iowa counties, as webcams and obs show visibilities have begun
to drop considerably. While not quite to 1/4 mile or less yet,
with the collapsing surface dewpoint depressions believe dense fog
is likely and should become more widespread not only in this area
but also eventually further south where the advisory was
initially issued.
Aside from the fog can`t completely rule out patchy freezing drizzle.
However, this threat appears rather low, as 00z DVN raob and the
majority of model forecast soundings show shallow saturated layer
less than the 1km depth typically needed for freezing drizzle.
Will continue to monitor obs/webcams and trends for any further
adjustments to the dense fog advisory.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
It`s been a busy afternoon across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois
and northeast Missouri with a variety of weather features to note.
The first is a passing shortwave seen on water vapor imagery and
SPC mesoanalysis. On the northern side of the shortwave, snow
showers were falling across northern portions of the CWA, but were
not producing much impact due to the light nature of the
precipitation.
Elsewhere, skies were partly to mostly cloudy with weak surface high
pressure passing overheard. Some areas were even seeing breaks of
sunshine, especially in northwest Illinois. Temperatures were
generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
To the west, clouds were filling back in over central Iowa with the
help of some weak low-level WAA and a second approaching shortwave
over southeast South Dakota. This shortwave will pass across our
area for the short term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Key Messages:
1) A few light snow showers or flurries expected north of I-80 this
evening.
2) Areas of fog expected in southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri
later this evening and tonight.
3) Isolated areas of freezing drizzle possible in eastern Iowa
tonight and Monday morning.
Discussion:
The first round of flurries and light snow showers will slowly
exit the area to east this evening, leaving the region under
mainly mostly cloudy skies. Some areas, especially in northeast
Iowa and north central Illinois, may have a peak at stars briefly
before clouds fill back in from the west. This will be the
weather for most of us tonight with temperatures expected to drop
into the lower to middle 20s.
Across southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri, an approaching
boundary from the southwest will help set the stage for another
round of fog development late this evening and overnight. All
guidance is in good agreement, with SREF and HREF ensembles showing
the highest probabilities of fog mainly south of a line from Mason
City IA, to Sigourney IA, and to Quincy IL. HRRR appears to be an
outlier in latest runs with taking convergence too far east. In
coordination with surrounding offices, have decided to issue a Dense
Fog Advisory across the extreme southwest of the CWA. With
temperatures expected to be well below freezing, there will be
potential for moisture from the fog to freeze on exposed surfaces,
resulting in a thin glaze of ice.
The other concern for overnight and Monday morning is the potential
for freezing drizzle. Several CAMs including the NAMnest, HRRR, ARW
and NMM have been more aggressive in latest runs with pockets of
light QPF across the area as the second shortwave passes to our
south and west. However, moisture profiles are not very deep, with
the NAM and GFS only showing saturation up 900-875 hPa at the most.
The most favored area for moisture saturation and lift will be along
the shortwave track from northwest Iowa to east central Missouri,
where I have included a schc of POPs for the latest forecast.
Once the shortwave passes and fog dissipates late Monday morning,
the remainder of the day will feature broken clouds with filtered
sunshine (similar to the past few days). Afternoon highs will be
in the lower to middle 30s.
Another shortwave will pass across our north Monday night, and may
have the potential to bring a round of flurries or freezing drizzle.
Confidence on this occurring remains low, but model forecast
soundings are indicative of a deeper moisture profile, especially
along and north of Highway 30. Temperatures will once again fall
into the lower to middle 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Key Messages:
1. Little change in the long term as quiet weather period expected
through most of the period with average to above average
temperatures.
2. A few waves late week are expected to move across the area and
may cause light precipitation, none of them look to be
significant
Discussion:
Overall low impact weather is expected through the beginning of the
period. Towards the end of the period, chances for precip return.
The freezing line looks to be close to the area so ptype will be an
issue and depending on the ptype may be more impactful. As
mentioned previously we are on a warming up trend into the weekend.
This may lead to local snow melt. With area rivers high, we will
need to keep on eye on how fast the melt occurs and any possible
river flooding.
Later in the week the next series of waves diverge in timing and
thus make a low confidence forecast. The GFS is the fastest of the
models and has QPF. The GEM is slower and has QPF and ECMWF is dry.
As mentioned earlier, impacts appear to be low with this system.
Otherwise, by Saturday we could be into the 40s across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Anticipate predominantly IFR to LIFR conditions in low cigs and
fog given abundant low level moisture and weak low level flow.
Improvement to MVFR is possible by Monday PM, especially at the
northern sites where a bit more northerly flow and drier advection
is being hinted at.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Ice on the Mississippi River is causing flooding concerns near the
Quad Cities. Pool 16 currently has the most impacts from this ice.
Even though the river has dropped at the RCKI2 gauge, reports from
EM still have flooding on Enchanted Island. This will likely
continue until the ice breaks up. The exact time that the ice will
break up is hard to ascertain.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for Benton-Buchanan-
Iowa-Johnson-Linn.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for Des Moines-Henry
IA-Jefferson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-Van Buren-Washington.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for Hancock.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for Clark-Scotland.
&&
$$
UPDATE...McClure
SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure
HYDROLOGY...Gibbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
736 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING UPDATE:
Forecast for this evening was mostly on track for now. So, moved
forward a bit and gave the snow/rain passage for tonight/tomorrow
a refresh with the latest model data. This had the impact of
spreading out the QPF/PoP spatially during the passage and not
focused on such a narrow line and also allowed the thermal profile
to be reassessed. The latest data show no warm nose wetbulb above
0*C to melt snow before refreezing in both the RAP and NAM.
Therefore, freezing rain and sleet were mostly stripped out of
the forecast this evening into tomorrow. GAH
AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Low clouds have lingered over the majority of area and is expected
to continue tonight through tomorrow. Areas of patchy fog along
with the low stratus clouds are possible tonight around the Opheim
Plateau. Another weak shortwave trough will move through Montana
bringing precipitation after midnight. The RAP and NAM soundings
have deep saturation with a small warm nose. There is uncertainty
around how the precipitation type will begin overnight, but should
transition to snow by the morning. With daytime highs tomorrow in
the 30s to mid 40s, any precipitation north of the hi-line will
probably continue as snow, whereas areas south will transition to
rain as the band moves east.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail this week. A series
of weak embedded shortwaves will bring periods of cloudiness and
chances for minor precipitation. Details for each wave will emerge
as they propagate through the week. Later this week, an upper
level broad ridge with zonal flow over the west on Thursday and
Friday may produce a Rocky Mountain leeside pressure gradient with
stronger, gusty winds out of the north and northwest to keep
watch.
Rux
&&
.AVIATION...
CATEGORY: MVFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: Low stratus and the potential for freezing fog
possible over the majority of the area will cause flight
categories to waver between MVFR and IFR with the main control
being ceilings. A band of precipitation will bring a chance of
light snow showers to GGW by about 17Z tomorrow morning. This
should exit the majority of the terminals by 03Z Monday night.
Showers may transition to rain in the afternoon for southern TAF
sites before migrating back to snow in the evening.
WINDS: Light and variable tonight. Swinging to the south and
west and remaining light during the day.
Rux/GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
527 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 411 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2020
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated northerly circulation into
Upper Michigan on the periphery of a persistent mid/upper level
from northern New England into southern. Although the weak shortwave
helping to support the light snow was drifting to the south of Upper
Michigan, IR/VIS imagery still shows a band of upstream mid level
moisture moving toward central upper Michigan.
Tonight, with abundant low level moisture remaining over the area
along with northerly flow and 850 mb temps around -5C dropping to
-8C, expect primarily upslope pcpn to continue tonight. As the mid
level moisture gradually shifts off to the southeast, a lower
probability of ice nuclei suggests that the pcpn will transition
to mainly fzdz. Although only a few hundredths of an inch at most
would be expected, any untreated surface could become icy
leading to hazards for motorists and pedestrians. An SPS was
issued to highlight the fzdz potential. Otherwise, mild
conditions will continue with lows in the mid 20s to around 30.
Monday, with a sfc ridge ridge building toward the area with
increasingly anticyclonic and weaker low level flow, expect the pcpn
to diminish. In addition, weak 850 mb CAA will bring in enough
colder air so that some of the fzdz may changeover back to light
snow/flurries. Temps will remain in the narrow range with highs in
the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2020
Multiple shortwaves look to track across the region over the next
week, with the stronger of the waves are expected early this week
and then later in the week/weekend. These waves will bring some
chances for light wintry precipitation. Otherwise, the middle part
of the week looks mostly dry, but we likely will see cloud cover
hold on through much of the week. Temperatures, especially day-time
highs, will remain a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
There will be a subtle "cool down" Tuesday into Thursday where day-
time highs will only climb into the mid to upper 20s and overnight
lows may drop into the single digits inland from the Great Lakes.
Otherwise, expect day-time highs in the 30s and overnight lows in
the teens to 20s through the end of the week and upcoming weekend.
The above mentioned first shortwave is progged to dig south across
the region Monday night into Tuesday. As this shortwave arrives, low-
level flow looks to remain northwesterly overnight, then veers north
to northeast throughout the day on Tuesday. This will favor
lingering, shallow upslope/onshore flow bringing more chances for
freezing drizzle and snow showers to much of the area. A pocket of
colder air arriving with the shortwave (850mb temps around -10 to
-12C) may allow for the shallow lift to push into the DGZ at times,
especially out west Monday night into Tuesday morning. Therefore, it
is possible there could be an uptick in snowfall rates at times, but
the shallow inversion heights due to an increasing subsidence
inversion should put a cap on any well-defined, stronger lake-effect
snow bands. While snowfall amounts are expected to remain light, the
combo of light snow and some freezing drizzle could still make for
slick spots, especially on untreated snow-free roads.
Tuesday night through Thursday, high pressure and upper-level
ridging slowly push southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. This
will bring us a nice break from the ongoing, long stretch of wintry
precipitation. There could be a few peaks of sunshine here or there
at times through mid-week, but overall it doesn`t look promising to
get a nice full day of sunshine.
Friday through next weekend, attention turns to the longwave trough
expected to exit the Rockies and push eastward across the central
CONUS. The southern stream continues to look like it will cutoff any
Gulf moisture from getting this far north, so with the northern
stream progged to impact the Upper Great Lakes we will need to see
how much remnant Pacific moisture is left after traversing the
northern Rockies. As for timing and how much precipitation
confidence is low as models continue to struggle to paint a
consistent upper-air pattern as another shortwave is progged to
quickly skirt through the northern Rockies and cause some phasing
differences downstream. Given the uncertainty did opt to leave
widespread chances of snow this weekend across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 527 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2020
Persistent low level moisture over the region will result in mainly
IFR conditions. Upslope northerly flow will also continue to support
some light pcpn. Light snow will gradually mix with or change over
to fzdz into tonight as mid level moisture moves out.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 411 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2020
Northerly winds approaching 25 knots will diminish tonight as a low
pressure system over Quebec continues to move to the east. Winds
then remain light and below 20 knots through the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
928 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
.UPDATE...
The latest mid-level analysis indicates a weak trough axis
centered across the Mississippi Valley with short wave energy
rounding the base of the trough and pushing into MS/AL. Behind this
feature, the local area is in a northwesterly mid-level flow. At
the surface, a low is passing south of the area across the western
Gulf of Mexico while high pressure slides southward across the
Plains. In a weak pressure pattern, relatively high pressure is
sliding in from the north. GOES IR satellite imagery indicates an
area of low-level moisture blanketing the four state region and
sliding slowly southeastward with clear skies across central
Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas. The 00z SHV
sounding and RAP RH time-height cross section show the layer of
moisture in the 1000-800mb layer.
Overnight, hi-res models agree that the low-level moisture will
settle in across the area and expand westward across the area.
This along with near calm winds will allow for areas of fog to
develop and become dense at times. A Dense Fog Advisory will
likely be needed for at least portions of the area if not the
whole area, but will hold off at this time until more widespread
dense fog sets up over the area.
On Monday, relatively weak high pressure will continue to slide in
from the north. Fog and a stratus deck will be slow to burn off
across the area, lingering through much of the morning. It is
anticipated it will first burn off in East Texas on the western
periphery of the low-level moisture. By the afternoon hours,
skies will begin to clear with sunshine finally breaking through
for many areas after a cloudy weekend.
For temps, forecast is closest to the NBM with lows overnight
ranging from the lower 40s in McCurtain County, OK to the upper
40s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana. Highs on Monday will
be contingent on the stratus deck breaking late in the day and
forecast sides closest with the GFS, indicating that the deck will
break and highs will range from the lower to mid 60s across much
of the area. If the stratus deck across areas before sunset,
temperatures will be closer to the NAM solution, in the mid to
upper 50s across much of the area. /04-Woodrum/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/
AVIATION...
Low-level moisture lingering across the area will allow for IFR
ceilings across most of the terminals to lower to LIFR with fog
overnight. Saturated grounds and calm winds overnight will develop
fog with visibilities dropping down to a 1/4-1/2SM across most
locations. Tyler and Lufkin will have VFR conditions prevailing
this evening just beyond the western edge of the low ceilings.
LIFR restrictions will likely also develop at Tyler and Lufkin
with fog developing overnight and lasting into the mid-morning.
Aside from Tyler and Lufkin, morning fog will be slow to burn off,
lasting into the late morning hours across the terminals. VFR
conditions will finally return late Monday afternoon as low-level
moisture finally diminishes and skies clear. Winds through the
period will be near calm across the terminals.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/
Weak/shallow cold front associated with a weak impulse in nwly
flow aloft making its way into our region this aftn. Front will
continue sewd across the region this evening, with sfc high
pressure finally settling in by Monday morning. Saturated soils,
light winds, and temp/dew point spreads of less than two degrees
will likely result in fog overnight. Uncertain as to whether the
fog will become dense over a widespread area, so will hold off on
the issuance of any headlines attm. However, cannot rule this
possibility out.
Clouds and fog should begin to clear out by mid to late morning
Monday, allowing for temps to rebound into the 60s areawide.
Meanwhile, progressive upper flow will be bringing another compact
disturbance ewd, and clouds and shwrs will return by Monday night.
/12/
LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday Night/
Progressive Westerlies pattern will persist with our next rain-maker
arriving as we begin this long term period. The approaching short
wave will creep along across the southern plains under weak ridging
in the pattern which extends farther North into Canada. So being out
of phase with the Northern branch of the jet and lacking a good
backdoor push with higher pressure, the short wave will take more
time to clear our area.
Tuesday will see periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms with
a weak surface low developing over our cwa moving from NE TX and
across the MS River by daybreak on Wednesday with rain finally
ending. The WPC QPF totals for the event adding days 2 and 3 will be
around an inch at most for an average. Then a weak 1024mb will
sprawl down the MS river valley and keep us dry for a couple of
days. The surface winds will shift to N/NE as the weak surface low
moves Eastward overnight Tuesday and we will keep that N/NE for the
remainder of the work week and then back to Westerly for a little
warmer weekend.
The whole week looks cool with lower heights aloft in the pattern
and those surface from the NE will be keeping highs in the 50s and
lows which begin in the 40s, chill to mix in some 30s as skies begin
to clear out bit mid to late week. Averages for late January upper
50s and upper 30s, so not much climate changing this week, just
normal mid-Winter weather for us.
The second system bringing rainfall this week will take a farther
South approach in the storm track and keep much of the heavier QPF
signal along the I-10 corridor. Much of the light rain of this event
will push through the region on early Friday into Friday evening and
only add another tenth or quarter inch looking at the WPC days 4/5.
Unlike the previous system, this one will be in a little better
phase with a trough moving over the Great Lakes and swing by quicker
for us anyway helping improve conditions for the weekend. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 64 46 57 / 10 0 20 80
MLU 48 64 43 58 / 20 0 10 60
DEQ 40 63 42 50 / 0 0 30 70
TXK 43 62 44 53 / 0 0 20 80
ELD 45 63 42 55 / 10 0 10 70
TYR 45 67 49 58 / 0 0 50 70
GGG 45 66 47 59 / 0 0 30 80
LFK 48 67 48 64 / 0 0 20 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
04/12/24