Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/11/20


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Complex, dynamic storm system arriving on the plains on schedule at midday. Currently, rain and embedded thunder across the SE zones, snow has developed near Ellis county, with a mix in between. Latest HRRR iterations are lining up well with radar and satellite trends, and followed HRRR closely through this evening. Convection in eastern zones will exit into central Kansas shortly. HRRR has really honed in on snow and blowing snow favoring areas along and especially west of US 83 this afternoon. It is across these western 6 counties (Morton, Stanton, Hamilton, Kearny, Grant, Stevens) where several hours of degraded travel is expected this afternoon, with light snow accompanied by increasing north winds. North winds are already gusting to 35 mph here at the office at this writing, and they will only get stronger through the afternoon, with gusts reaching near 50 mph. The true cold air is crashing south through Nebraska into NE Colorado at midday, and the cold air will pour into SW KS quickly through sunset. Radar, HRRR trends and pattern recognition suggest that much of the central SW KS CWA (Dodge City) will see little if any precipitation from this event, and started to trend grids that way. As has always been expected, the fast progression of this trough will greatly limit impacts in SW KS. Will keep winter weather advisory going for now, but winter weather impacts will strongly favor I-70, the western counties west of US 83, and perhaps Barber county tonight. The coldest air we have seen in a couple months will arrive tonight. HRRR still suggests the developing snow storm across NW Oklahoma early Saturday may clip Barber county, and will need to monitor the Medicine Lodge to Kiowa (town) areas for accumulation through sunrise. Elsewhere, sky will rapidly clear with strong subsidence behind the departing cyclone. NW winds will only gradually ratchet down overnight, such that NW winds of 10-20 mph will still be common at sunrise, as air temperatures fall into the 5-15 degree range. This results in subzero wind chill indices for several hours around sunrise Saturday. A strong taste of January. Saturday will be sunny with strong subsidence, but plenty cold. Afternoon temperatures will struggle in the lower to mid 30s at most locations, with NE zones (Hays) failing to reach freezing (upper 20s) while Elkhart will manage lower 40s. Winds will weaken rapidly Saturday; the storm system is exiting so quickly, expect surface winds to trend light and variable by afternoon as pressure gradients collapse. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 The entire long term forecast is dry for all zones, through Friday January 17th. There will be several progressive shortwaves during this time, and associated weak frontal passages/wind shifts with each one, but they will all be moisture-starved as they traverse SW KS. Afternoon temperatures will moderate on Sunday, back to the 40s for most zones, expect mid 30s far NE and near 50 far SW. This temperature moderation will occur despite a rather strong, but moisture deprived, shortwave that crosses SW KS midday Sunday. In effect, what the shortwave will do is increase gentle W/NWly downslope components and help push remaining Canadian air out of SW KS. Further warming is expected on Monday, well into the 50s, except lingering 40s along the I-70 corridor. After Monday, models fall into disarray regarding the timing of specific shortwaves and related cold frontal passages. As such, model guidance temperature forecasts show disparity among them. The most obvious difference is GFS continues to be far colder than other guidance Wednesday/Thursday. GFS-related guidance continues to show a strong arctic surface high across the northern plains during this time, with much more cold influence bleeding into Kansas. 12z ECMWF suggests more of a glancing backdoor flirtation with the colder air Wednesday, and ECMWF continues to show strong return flow south winds and strong warming Thursday. Suspect the warmer solutions will verify, as the fast near zonal flow across the Rockies/plains will not be favorable for cold air intrusions of any longevity. As such, going forecast from the NBM/GFS/MEX for Thursday is likely too cold. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Light precipitation has come to an end across central and southwest Kansas late this afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs at the beginning of the period will gradually improve to VFR through the evening hours. The strong north winds will slowly subside through late evening and lose the gusty component later tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 10 33 17 44 / 40 0 0 0 GCK 9 34 15 45 / 40 0 0 0 EHA 11 40 21 49 / 50 0 0 0 LBL 10 37 18 49 / 60 0 0 0 HYS 9 28 15 36 / 40 0 0 0 P28 16 33 20 44 / 40 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ046- 064>066-078>081-088>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1011 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system to our west will bring rainfall and possibly thunderstorms to the area through Saturday night. After a brief break on Sunday, unsettled weather returns for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1000 PM EST Friday: Upglide/upslope showers continue to increase in coverage this evening, but rates are still very light. Tweaked QPF for the overnight down a little bit to line up with trends. Otherwise, PoPs/temps/winds all look on track. Otherwise, surface high pressure is gradually pulling away from the area as it drifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and though a wedge of high pressure remains in place across our area (and is keeping winds at many sites NErly), it should erode allowing the winds to shift more E-SErly overnight. PoPs will continue to ramp up thru the night, as moisture deepens within a persistent southerly upglide flow. Temps will warm slightly overnight thanks to the strong low-level WAA and eroding in-situ wedge. As the surface cold front and upper level low approach the area, forcing in both low and upper levels will increase through the day tomorrow, and with better moisture in place, expect shower activity to be more widespread. Rainfall could be heavier at times in upslope areas, but overall expect a showery nature to rainfall during the day, limiting QPF. CAMs suggest the best QPF will be with the convective line moving towards the area ahead of the approaching front. Though there are some hints in guidance that the line may approach the far western zones of the forecast area by the end of the near term period, think any weather of interest will hold off til the short term period begins, so after 00Z Sunday. Instability will be limited during the day on Saturday, so no threat for severe weather outside of the approaching line of convection is anticipated during the near term period. Finally, stronger warm air advection will commence ahead of the approaching cold front tomorrow morning, with winds increasing and becoming gusty through the day tomorrow. Most of the area will be breezy by the afternoon, but expected higher gusts especially in the higher terrain and mountain zones. Winds and especially gusts in the going forecast get close to wind advisory criteria in these areas, so tipped toward a wind advisory running through the end of the near term period for all NC mountain zones and Rabun and Habersham counties in NE GA. With soil already wet and more rain expected, a few trees could fall in these zones, again more in higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Fri: Deep upper trough will be near the mouth of the Ohio River at 00z Sunday, with sfc low over the central Ohio Valley. A line of convection is expected to have already developed along the cold front and will be entering the westernmost zones of the CWA around that time. LLJ preceding the front is progged to be upwards of 60 kt in spots as the convection pushes east. SBCAPE is likely to be sufficient to sustain some updrafts at least part of the way across the CWA. A limiting factor for the threat of severe weather will be a lack of dynamic forcing due to the track of the shortwave, although a narrow zone of upper divergence will traverse the area in the RR quad of a jet streak. Significant updrafts do become sparse in HREF plots as the line crosses the mtns, as does associated helicity swaths. Nevertheless the threat is sufficiently great for SPC to have placed most of the CWA in a Marginal Risk on Day 2. Gusty winds across the mountains and NE GA will continue until around 06z, which is the expiration time of our Wind Advisory. The line likely will have fizzled and/or exited the CWA by daybreak. With the heavy precip being relatively short-lived, and in light of FFGs, only the most problematic areas are at risk for hydrologic issues. Rapid departure of shortwave into eastern Canada, along with persistent strong offshore high pressure, will stall out the front across the Southeast later on Sunday. The next shortwave in the train will be moving into the upper Mississippi Valley around that time, helping to reinforce southwesterly flow across the Southeast, and activating the stalled front in the very low levels. Thus PoPs gradually begin to ramp up again from south to north Sunday afternoon; this trend continues through Monday. Warm temps mainly in the upper 60s are expected for Sunday afternoon across the Piedmont and lower mountain valleys, with some sunshine. Temps take a slight hit Monday due to cloud cover but will remain pleasantly warm, in the mid 60s, still a good 15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 pm Fri: Details on the medium range remain a bit murky, though a generally unsettled pattern is expected to continue. The development of a warm front across the Southeast will continue Mon night into Tue; just as the Midwest shortwave begins to carry this feature past the area and bring back westerly flow and CAA, another shortwave will take a similar track in its wake, essentially beginning the cycle again. Warm but moist conditions will persist until that wave pulls a cold front through our area late Wed night or Thu. Another fairly short period of dry weather will return to end the official period. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Deteriorating conditions expected across the area this evening thru the overnight, from mainly VFR to IFR by daybreak Saturday, as moisture increases within a persistent southerly flow. A weak in-situ wedge will form, as -SHRA increases in coverage near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but then some improvement may occur later in the day on Saturday with slightly deeper mixing. Winds will start out mainly out of the NE (except SE at KAVL), then shift to S/SE early Saturday morning. Winds should become gusty by early aftn. A line of intense showers and embedded tstms will start pushing into the area around 00z, but may reach CLT before 06z (so will include PROB30 there). Outlook: A cold front will clear the area by early Sunday, with brief drying in its wake. Moisture will quickly return again from the south Sunday night and persist thru at least the first half of next week. Confidence Table... 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z KCLT High 91% High 88% Med 75% Med 67% KGSP Med 78% Med 78% High 85% High 92% KAVL Low 55% High 96% High 96% High 82% KHKY Med 60% High 80% High 86% Med 73% KGMU Med 78% Med 75% Med 76% High 81% KAND Low 56% High 90% Med 78% Med 75% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for GAZ010- 017. NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033- 048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...17 NEAR TERM...ARK/17 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 A rapidly changing weather situation is currently underway across the forecast area at this time. First wave of precipitation is currently working its way NE with a mixture of freezing rain/sleet and light snow across NE KS and central KS, with elevated showers/ thunderstorms for areas east of the KS Turnpike. Surface analysis shows the arctic cold front continues to push into the Flint Hills and SE KS, currently located from KCNU south to KCFV. Current visible satellite image shows some sunshine trying to peak out across the warm sector, which may lead to a renewed round of convection for SE for the late afternoon hours. Think overall severe threat is diminishing, as arctic front continues to push into extreme SE KS, but an elevated strong storm cannot be ruled out until 23z. Directional shear suggests tornado threat is shifting east of the area. Further to the NW in the below freezing temp air, expect a few rounds of light freezing/sleet and even some light snow, with a continued light glazing of ice on elevated surfaces. Think ice accumulations will average from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the heaviest glazing. Sometimes lighter freezing rain can lead to some sneaky ice accumulation amounts. Onset of the wintry precip (Freezing rain and sleet), was a little faster than short range models suggested, so went ahead and converted the winter storm watch over to a winter weather advisory and winter storm warning earlier today. For the rest of the late afternoon into the evening, think much of south central KS and portions of central KS, may see a lull in the wintry precipitation, with some lingering very light freezing rain or freezing sprinkles or freezing drizzle the main precip type for the evening hours. Latest RAP bufkit soundings suggest warm nose just off the surface will gradually shift east as the evening progresses which will lead to slow changeover from freezing rain to freezing drizzle and eventually a few pockets of light sleet by late this evening. For late tonight into early on Sat, the main shortwave will shift east across OK and become slightly negatively tilted. As the lift from this shortwave moves in, expect cold air aloft to changeover the precip to ALL snow, as deformation zone on the NW side of the shortwave lifts north into areas east of the KS Turnpike by sunrise on Sat. This deformation zone will lead to a nice band of moderate snow moving across most of the Flint Hills and areas just east of the KS Turnpike for the morning hours on Sat. Current thinking is that there is will be a swath of 3 to 4 inches of snow with some localized 5 inch amounts, given the bufkit soundings showing some steep lapse rates in the main snow growth region. Expect to see a sharp cutoff in the heavier snow for areas west of the KS Turnpike, with the ICT metro area seeing a sharp gradient of 1 to 2 inches, with the 2 inch amounts in SE Sedgwick Co and lessor amounts further NW. So when is comes to headlines, went with a winter weather advisory for areas west of the KS Turnpike for a mixture of freezing rain/freezing drizzle and the light snow early on Sat. Went ahead and issued a winter storm warning for the Flint Hills with the mixture of freezing rain around a quarter of an inch and the snowfall amounts mentioned above. Most of the wintry precip will wind down rather quickly for Sat afternoon as the system pulls rapidly to the east of the area, with new snow cover and cold advection in its wake leading to a cold day, even with the clearing skies. Another fast moving and compact shortwave moves across the area during the day on Sunday. Latest short range models are coming in drier as this system moves across the area. Could still see some flurries for Sunday afternoon, but will not include this mention for now. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Warm advection looks to return for Mon as another quick hitting system moves rapidly across the area in the SW flow. This warmup is expected to be short lived, as this impulse ushers in another cold front into the area for Tue. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 IFR conditions are expected to dominate the region for the first 12 hours of the TAF period. Most areas will be the rain come to an end during the night tonight with freezing rain, sleet and snow becoming the dominate forms of precipitation. RSL, GBD and SLN look to get more minimal amounts of snow during the overnight and may see some clearing during the day tomorrow. HUT and ICT may see some more snow but not major amounts. CNU on the other hand is the one terminal that is expected to receive the lion share of the snow fall tonight and tomorrow. By the late afternoon and into the evening the snow is expected to diminish and end with clearing likely close to sunset. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 17 28 19 40 / 70 70 0 0 Hutchinson 15 28 17 38 / 60 30 0 0 Newton 15 25 16 37 / 70 70 0 0 ElDorado 17 25 18 38 / 80 90 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 19 29 20 42 / 80 100 0 0 Russell 11 27 15 36 / 50 0 0 0 Great Bend 12 29 17 39 / 50 0 0 0 Salina 13 25 15 36 / 80 20 0 0 McPherson 14 26 15 37 / 70 30 0 0 Coffeyville 23 26 18 45 / 100 100 0 0 Chanute 20 23 15 41 / 90 100 0 0 Iola 19 23 15 40 / 100 100 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 22 25 17 43 / 100 100 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ069>072- 093>096-098>100. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CST Saturday for KSZ049-051-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-083-091-092. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ052-053. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
805 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... It`s relatively quiet so far this evening. Showers are streaming into the mid-state and will continue to do so for awhile. Rains are light though, and should become much less widespread after midnight. I backed off on PoPs from about midnight through 5 am. Then...models are still not in great agreement regarding the timing of this line moving into Middle TN. The 18Z NAM doesn`t have the line into the Metro area until early afternoon. The latest HRRR has the line racing into the Metro area mid-morning. So, let`s go with a 6-9am across the TN River, 8-11am into the Metro area and 12-3pm on the Plateau. That`s a ballpark, but the bigger issue is the need to focus on what the environment is going to be ahead of the line. Shear is DEFINITELY not a problem. Forecast soundings continue to show helicities off the charts, mainly due to the low-level jet that`s going to ramp up overnight (this is also the instigator for the Wind Advisory). 0-1km numbers are a ridiculous 500 m2/s2 in the NAM and GFS soundings. Needless to say, things will be rotating tomorrow morning. Instability numbers are topping out at 250 J/Kg or less. That isn`t impressive by any means and without any dry air aloft, I`m not sure how we get any higher than that. That said, combined with the atrocious amount of forcing along the front as the upper ridge swings negative in the morning, we`re definitely going to run the risk of damaging winds. I like the focus of the severe to be south of I-40 where SPC currently has the Enhanced Risk. CAPE is better down there, which will help increase the threat. That`s not to say areas north of I-40 are out of the woods by any means. The latest HRRR is indicating bowing of the line as it approaches Nashville. Can`t stick to that strictly by any means as far as location, but it`s an indicator that the Slight Risk across the north is warranted. I alluded to the Wind Advisory a moment ago and it has to be stressed that winds even outside of the thunderstorms could be wicked at time. 40-50 mph gradient wind gusts aren`t out of the question, as strong as the LLJ will be. With the grounds still saturated, I have a feeling there will be a lot of trees down tomorrow between the gradient winds and the thunderstorm winds. This is the time to review your safety plan and it`s also the time to remind people to take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings seriously. It doesn`t matter whether the wind is spinning in a circle or in a straight line at 70 mph. Trees come down in either instance. Have a place where you can take shelter if you go under any kind of warning tomorrow. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...An area of mainly light showers will affect most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau early this evening. The remainder of the evening and overnight appears to be largely rain-free. Tomorrow, a strong cold front will push through Middle Tennessee with a line of convection likely to form along the front and track across the mid state beginning after 12Z. A broad area of showers should linger for several hours even after the surface front passes through. Low-level wind shear is going to be an obvious hazard throughout the TAF period. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday for all of Middle TN. && $$ DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Potent storm system will bring a variety of hazards tonight and Saturday. Flash flooding concerns have increased due to the swath of heavy rainfall that occurred overnight and this morning northwest of the Ohio River. Already around 2 inches have fallen from around kcgi up into southwest Indiana. Fortunately, rainfall rates have been rather low. This rainfall has been associated with a zone of persistent warm moist advection and moderate elevated instability. The high rainfall rates expected later tonight will pose a serious problem where heavy rainfall caused flooding today. There is good model agreement that an organized round of convection will move east from the Ozarks tonight. The timing shown in the hrrr model is representative of many other models, which take the convective system across se Missouri from 06z to 10z, then across southern IL and far western KY around 12z to 15z. High rainfall rates will accompany this convection, possibly up to an inch in an hour. An additional 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast from this afternoon through Saturday in the watch area, which covers all but the khop area. The severe weather potential has increased somewhat, as well. Instability is generally higher than the models have indicated. Elevated most unstable capes (mucapes) have been in the 500 to 1000 j/kg range over se Missouri, per spc mesoanalysis. Weak surface-based instability is forecast to develop over se Missouri this evening. The strong to severe convection over the Ozarks is forecast to move into an environment of very strong wind shear late tonight over se Missouri, with 850 mb winds near 60 kt. There is some potential for the convection to maintain intensity after it crosses the Mississippi River around 12z, despite a model signal for the instability to weaken. The tremendous shear (50 knots down to 1500 feet agl) and strong forcing associated with the potent 500 mb shortwave may compensate for the weaker instability. The potential exists for an isolated tornado or two, in addition to pockets of wind damage. The northern edge of the surface based instability corresponds rather closely with the edge of the spc slight risk area for both days 1 and 2. The strongest convection should exit western Kentucky by around 18z Sat. The third hazard is strong non-convective winds. As mentioned, more than one model is indicating winds around 50 knots less than 2k feet above ground, mainly early to mid morning Saturday. The timing and strength of surface wind gusts will depend on low level lapse rates, which will depend on the timing of convection and how much diurnal heating occurs. The models are not in agreement on details that fine scale. The high-res hrrr complicates the issue by developing an intense wake meso-low behind the convective system. This scenario cannot be ruled out either. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect tonight into Saturday evening, though the most impactful winds will occur within a shorter time frame. There is a slight chance of meeting High Wind Warning criteria (58 mph gusts) if the wake meso-low develops behind the storms. The low pressure system will exit our region Saturday night, with a few leftover showers in the evening. Winds will diminish and skies will begin to clear. A brief period of colder northwest winds will bring temperatures down into the mid 20s to mid 30s Saturday night. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 The overall pattern during work week over the WFO PAH forecast area will be a broad low amplitude southwest flow Monday through Wednesday, with ridging aloft Thursday, with a sharp trough over the area next Friday. About a ten degree rise can be expected each day on Monday and Tuesday, as the WFO PAH remains in the warm sector, with a warm front north of the area during this period. At this time, have low forecast confidence on the warm advection precipitation generated for the area Monday night and Tuesday. Regardless little or no measurable QPF (rain amounts) are forecast for this time period, so figure most of the precipitation will be Trace amounts. For collaborative purposes, kept a small chance mention of showers with a lesser chance of thunderstorm activity over west Kentucky on Tuesday. A shortwave is expected to move from the Central Plains and through the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The European and Canadian numerical guidance are similar with this feature, so felt comfortable with keeping a chance of precipitation in place through Wednesday evening. There is some model disagreement with the NBM (National Blend of Models) during the daytime hours on Thursday as the mid-upper level ridge moves across the area. Opted to keep the daytime period dry with this package. For Thursday night through the end of the forecast period, kept a chance of rain in place as the next shortwave moves from the four corners area of the desert southwest to Michigan by Friday night. Don`t have high confidence on the low temperature forecast for Wednesday through Friday night, but had to consider a mention of a wintry mix (rain and snow) after midnight Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, then again Thursday night into Friday. Given the antecedent warm conditions and marginal freezing temperatures, any snowfall accumulation will be very minor to non-existent at best. && .AVIATION... Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 There will be a general lull in the rainfall coverage this evening as a cluster of showers continues to move northward through southern IL/southwestern IN. Aside from a few breaks in the clouds here and there, MVFR cigs can be expected in the western half of the region this evening, with the eastern half decreasing from VFR to MVFR shortly after midnight. A line of showers and possibly strong to severe tstms, just ahead of a cold front, is forecast to move eastward through the region after midnight, starting in southeastern MO and progressing across eastern parts of the region by midday Sat. IFR cigs/vsbys should be associated these showers and tstms. Meanwhile, robust southerly winds, gusting to as much as 35 to 40 knots ahead of the front, will turn to the west or southwest late, after a period of becoming light and variable. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday afternoon for KYZ001>016-018>020. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for KYZ001>022. && $$ SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...DWS AVIATION...DB