Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/11/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Complex, dynamic storm system arriving on the plains on schedule
at midday. Currently, rain and embedded thunder across the SE
zones, snow has developed near Ellis county, with a mix in
between. Latest HRRR iterations are lining up well with radar and
satellite trends, and followed HRRR closely through this evening.
Convection in eastern zones will exit into central Kansas shortly.
HRRR has really honed in on snow and blowing snow favoring areas
along and especially west of US 83 this afternoon. It is across
these western 6 counties (Morton, Stanton, Hamilton, Kearny,
Grant, Stevens) where several hours of degraded travel is expected
this afternoon, with light snow accompanied by increasing north
winds. North winds are already gusting to 35 mph here at the
office at this writing, and they will only get stronger through
the afternoon, with gusts reaching near 50 mph. The true cold air
is crashing south through Nebraska into NE Colorado at midday, and
the cold air will pour into SW KS quickly through sunset. Radar,
HRRR trends and pattern recognition suggest that much of the
central SW KS CWA (Dodge City) will see little if any
precipitation from this event, and started to trend grids that
way. As has always been expected, the fast progression of this
trough will greatly limit impacts in SW KS. Will keep winter
weather advisory going for now, but winter weather impacts will
strongly favor I-70, the western counties west of US 83, and
perhaps Barber county tonight.
The coldest air we have seen in a couple months will arrive
tonight. HRRR still suggests the developing snow storm across NW
Oklahoma early Saturday may clip Barber county, and will need to
monitor the Medicine Lodge to Kiowa (town) areas for accumulation
through sunrise. Elsewhere, sky will rapidly clear with strong
subsidence behind the departing cyclone. NW winds will only
gradually ratchet down overnight, such that NW winds of 10-20 mph
will still be common at sunrise, as air temperatures fall into the
5-15 degree range. This results in subzero wind chill indices for
several hours around sunrise Saturday. A strong taste of January.
Saturday will be sunny with strong subsidence, but plenty cold.
Afternoon temperatures will struggle in the lower to mid 30s at
most locations, with NE zones (Hays) failing to reach freezing
(upper 20s) while Elkhart will manage lower 40s. Winds will weaken
rapidly Saturday; the storm system is exiting so quickly, expect
surface winds to trend light and variable by afternoon as pressure
gradients collapse.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The entire long term forecast is dry for all zones, through Friday
January 17th. There will be several progressive shortwaves during
this time, and associated weak frontal passages/wind shifts with
each one, but they will all be moisture-starved as they traverse
SW KS.
Afternoon temperatures will moderate on Sunday, back to the 40s
for most zones, expect mid 30s far NE and near 50 far SW. This
temperature moderation will occur despite a rather strong, but
moisture deprived, shortwave that crosses SW KS midday Sunday. In
effect, what the shortwave will do is increase gentle W/NWly
downslope components and help push remaining Canadian air out of
SW KS. Further warming is expected on Monday, well into the 50s,
except lingering 40s along the I-70 corridor.
After Monday, models fall into disarray regarding the timing of
specific shortwaves and related cold frontal passages. As such,
model guidance temperature forecasts show disparity among them.
The most obvious difference is GFS continues to be far colder than
other guidance Wednesday/Thursday. GFS-related guidance continues
to show a strong arctic surface high across the northern plains
during this time, with much more cold influence bleeding into
Kansas. 12z ECMWF suggests more of a glancing backdoor flirtation
with the colder air Wednesday, and ECMWF continues to show strong
return flow south winds and strong warming Thursday. Suspect the
warmer solutions will verify, as the fast near zonal flow across
the Rockies/plains will not be favorable for cold air intrusions
of any longevity. As such, going forecast from the NBM/GFS/MEX for
Thursday is likely too cold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Light precipitation has come to an end across central and
southwest Kansas late this afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs
at the beginning of the period will gradually improve to VFR
through the evening hours. The strong north winds will slowly
subside through late evening and lose the gusty component later
tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 10 33 17 44 / 40 0 0 0
GCK 9 34 15 45 / 40 0 0 0
EHA 11 40 21 49 / 50 0 0 0
LBL 10 37 18 49 / 60 0 0 0
HYS 9 28 15 36 / 40 0 0 0
P28 16 33 20 44 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1011 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system to our west will bring rainfall and
possibly thunderstorms to the area through Saturday night. After a
brief break on Sunday, unsettled weather returns for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EST Friday: Upglide/upslope showers continue to
increase in coverage this evening, but rates are still very light.
Tweaked QPF for the overnight down a little bit to line up with
trends. Otherwise, PoPs/temps/winds all look on track.
Otherwise, surface high pressure is gradually pulling away from the
area as it drifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and though a
wedge of high pressure remains in place across our area (and is
keeping winds at many sites NErly), it should erode allowing the
winds to shift more E-SErly overnight. PoPs will continue to ramp up
thru the night, as moisture deepens within a persistent southerly
upglide flow. Temps will warm slightly overnight thanks to the
strong low-level WAA and eroding in-situ wedge.
As the surface cold front and upper level low approach the area,
forcing in both low and upper levels will increase through the day
tomorrow, and with better moisture in place, expect shower activity
to be more widespread. Rainfall could be heavier at times in upslope
areas, but overall expect a showery nature to rainfall during the
day, limiting QPF. CAMs suggest the best QPF will be with the
convective line moving towards the area ahead of the approaching
front. Though there are some hints in guidance that the line may
approach the far western zones of the forecast area by the end of
the near term period, think any weather of interest will hold off
til the short term period begins, so after 00Z Sunday. Instability
will be limited during the day on Saturday, so no threat for severe
weather outside of the approaching line of convection is
anticipated during the near term period.
Finally, stronger warm air advection will commence ahead of the
approaching cold front tomorrow morning, with winds increasing and
becoming gusty through the day tomorrow. Most of the area will be
breezy by the afternoon, but expected higher gusts especially in the
higher terrain and mountain zones. Winds and especially gusts in the
going forecast get close to wind advisory criteria in these areas,
so tipped toward a wind advisory running through the end of the near
term period for all NC mountain zones and Rabun and Habersham
counties in NE GA. With soil already wet and more rain expected, a
few trees could fall in these zones, again more in higher elevations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Fri: Deep upper trough will be near the mouth of
the Ohio River at 00z Sunday, with sfc low over the central Ohio
Valley. A line of convection is expected to have already developed
along the cold front and will be entering the westernmost zones
of the CWA around that time. LLJ preceding the front is progged to
be upwards of 60 kt in spots as the convection pushes east. SBCAPE
is likely to be sufficient to sustain some updrafts at least part
of the way across the CWA. A limiting factor for the threat of
severe weather will be a lack of dynamic forcing due to the track
of the shortwave, although a narrow zone of upper divergence will
traverse the area in the RR quad of a jet streak. Significant
updrafts do become sparse in HREF plots as the line crosses the
mtns, as does associated helicity swaths. Nevertheless the threat
is sufficiently great for SPC to have placed most of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk on Day 2. Gusty winds across the mountains and NE
GA will continue until around 06z, which is the expiration time
of our Wind Advisory. The line likely will have fizzled and/or
exited the CWA by daybreak. With the heavy precip being relatively
short-lived, and in light of FFGs, only the most problematic areas
are at risk for hydrologic issues.
Rapid departure of shortwave into eastern Canada, along with
persistent strong offshore high pressure, will stall out the
front across the Southeast later on Sunday. The next shortwave
in the train will be moving into the upper Mississippi Valley
around that time, helping to reinforce southwesterly flow across
the Southeast, and activating the stalled front in the very low
levels. Thus PoPs gradually begin to ramp up again from south to
north Sunday afternoon; this trend continues through Monday.
Warm temps mainly in the upper 60s are expected for Sunday
afternoon across the Piedmont and lower mountain valleys, with
some sunshine. Temps take a slight hit Monday due to cloud cover
but will remain pleasantly warm, in the mid 60s, still a good 15
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 pm Fri: Details on the medium range remain a bit murky,
though a generally unsettled pattern is expected to continue. The
development of a warm front across the Southeast will continue
Mon night into Tue; just as the Midwest shortwave begins to carry
this feature past the area and bring back westerly flow and CAA,
another shortwave will take a similar track in its wake, essentially
beginning the cycle again. Warm but moist conditions will persist
until that wave pulls a cold front through our area late Wed night
or Thu. Another fairly short period of dry weather will return to
end the official period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Deteriorating conditions expected across the
area this evening thru the overnight, from mainly VFR to IFR by
daybreak Saturday, as moisture increases within a persistent
southerly flow. A weak in-situ wedge will form, as -SHRA increases
in coverage near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but then some
improvement may occur later in the day on Saturday with slightly
deeper mixing. Winds will start out mainly out of the NE (except SE
at KAVL), then shift to S/SE early Saturday morning. Winds should
become gusty by early aftn. A line of intense showers and embedded
tstms will start pushing into the area around 00z, but may reach CLT
before 06z (so will include PROB30 there).
Outlook: A cold front will clear the area by early Sunday, with
brief drying in its wake. Moisture will quickly return again from
the south Sunday night and persist thru at least the first half of
next week.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT High 91% High 88% Med 75% Med 67%
KGSP Med 78% Med 78% High 85% High 92%
KAVL Low 55% High 96% High 96% High 82%
KHKY Med 60% High 80% High 86% Med 73%
KGMU Med 78% Med 75% Med 76% High 81%
KAND Low 56% High 90% Med 78% Med 75%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for GAZ010-
017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...17
NEAR TERM...ARK/17
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
A rapidly changing weather situation is currently underway across the
forecast area at this time. First wave of precipitation is
currently working its way NE with a mixture of freezing rain/sleet
and light snow across NE KS and central KS, with elevated showers/
thunderstorms for areas east of the KS Turnpike. Surface analysis
shows the arctic cold front continues to push into the Flint Hills
and SE KS, currently located from KCNU south to KCFV. Current
visible satellite image shows some sunshine trying to peak out
across the warm sector, which may lead to a renewed round of
convection for SE for the late afternoon hours. Think overall severe
threat is diminishing, as arctic front continues to push into
extreme SE KS, but an elevated strong storm cannot be ruled out
until 23z. Directional shear suggests tornado threat is shifting
east of the area.
Further to the NW in the below freezing temp air, expect a few
rounds of light freezing/sleet and even some light snow, with a
continued light glazing of ice on elevated surfaces. Think ice
accumulations will average from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in
the heaviest glazing. Sometimes lighter freezing rain can lead to
some sneaky ice accumulation amounts.
Onset of the wintry precip (Freezing rain and sleet), was a little
faster than short range models suggested, so went ahead and
converted the winter storm watch over to a winter weather advisory
and winter storm warning earlier today.
For the rest of the late afternoon into the evening, think much of
south central KS and portions of central KS, may see a lull in the
wintry precipitation, with some lingering very light freezing rain
or freezing sprinkles or freezing drizzle the main precip type for
the evening hours. Latest RAP bufkit soundings suggest warm nose
just off the surface will gradually shift east as the evening
progresses which will lead to slow changeover from freezing rain to
freezing drizzle and eventually a few pockets of light sleet by late
this evening.
For late tonight into early on Sat, the main shortwave will shift
east across OK and become slightly negatively tilted. As the lift
from this shortwave moves in, expect cold air aloft to changeover
the precip to ALL snow, as deformation zone on the NW side of the
shortwave lifts north into areas east of the KS Turnpike by sunrise
on Sat. This deformation zone will lead to a nice band of moderate
snow moving across most of the Flint Hills and areas just east of
the KS Turnpike for the morning hours on Sat. Current thinking is
that there is will be a swath of 3 to 4 inches of snow with some
localized 5 inch amounts, given the bufkit soundings showing some
steep lapse rates in the main snow growth region. Expect to see a
sharp cutoff in the heavier snow for areas west of the KS Turnpike,
with the ICT metro area seeing a sharp gradient of 1 to 2 inches,
with the 2 inch amounts in SE Sedgwick Co and lessor amounts further
NW.
So when is comes to headlines, went with a winter weather advisory
for areas west of the KS Turnpike for a mixture of freezing
rain/freezing drizzle and the light snow early on Sat. Went ahead
and issued a winter storm warning for the Flint Hills with the
mixture of freezing rain around a quarter of an inch and the
snowfall amounts mentioned above.
Most of the wintry precip will wind down rather quickly for Sat
afternoon as the system pulls rapidly to the east of the area, with
new snow cover and cold advection in its wake leading to a cold day,
even with the clearing skies.
Another fast moving and compact shortwave moves across the area
during the day on Sunday. Latest short range models are coming in
drier as this system moves across the area. Could still see some
flurries for Sunday afternoon, but will not include this mention for
now.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Warm advection looks to return for Mon as another quick hitting
system moves rapidly across the area in the SW flow. This warmup is
expected to be short lived, as this impulse ushers in another cold
front into the area for Tue.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
IFR conditions are expected to dominate the region for the first
12 hours of the TAF period. Most areas will be the rain come to
an end during the night tonight with freezing rain, sleet and snow
becoming the dominate forms of precipitation. RSL, GBD and SLN
look to get more minimal amounts of snow during the overnight and
may see some clearing during the day tomorrow. HUT and ICT may see
some more snow but not major amounts. CNU on the other hand is
the one terminal that is expected to receive the lion share of the
snow fall tonight and tomorrow. By the late afternoon and into
the evening the snow is expected to diminish and end with clearing
likely close to sunset.
Metzger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 17 28 19 40 / 70 70 0 0
Hutchinson 15 28 17 38 / 60 30 0 0
Newton 15 25 16 37 / 70 70 0 0
ElDorado 17 25 18 38 / 80 90 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 19 29 20 42 / 80 100 0 0
Russell 11 27 15 36 / 50 0 0 0
Great Bend 12 29 17 39 / 50 0 0 0
Salina 13 25 15 36 / 80 20 0 0
McPherson 14 26 15 37 / 70 30 0 0
Coffeyville 23 26 18 45 / 100 100 0 0
Chanute 20 23 15 41 / 90 100 0 0
Iola 19 23 15 40 / 100 100 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 22 25 17 43 / 100 100 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ069>072-
093>096-098>100.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CST Saturday for KSZ049-051-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-083-091-092.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ052-053.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
805 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
It`s relatively quiet so far this evening. Showers are streaming
into the mid-state and will continue to do so for awhile. Rains
are light though, and should become much less widespread after
midnight. I backed off on PoPs from about midnight through 5 am.
Then...models are still not in great agreement regarding the
timing of this line moving into Middle TN. The 18Z NAM doesn`t
have the line into the Metro area until early afternoon. The
latest HRRR has the line racing into the Metro area mid-morning.
So, let`s go with a 6-9am across the TN River, 8-11am into the
Metro area and 12-3pm on the Plateau. That`s a ballpark, but the
bigger issue is the need to focus on what the environment is going
to be ahead of the line. Shear is DEFINITELY not a problem.
Forecast soundings continue to show helicities off the charts,
mainly due to the low-level jet that`s going to ramp up overnight
(this is also the instigator for the Wind Advisory). 0-1km
numbers are a ridiculous 500 m2/s2 in the NAM and GFS soundings.
Needless to say, things will be rotating tomorrow morning.
Instability numbers are topping out at 250 J/Kg or less. That
isn`t impressive by any means and without any dry air aloft, I`m
not sure how we get any higher than that. That said, combined with
the atrocious amount of forcing along the front as the upper
ridge swings negative in the morning, we`re definitely going to
run the risk of damaging winds.
I like the focus of the severe to be south of I-40 where SPC
currently has the Enhanced Risk. CAPE is better down there, which
will help increase the threat. That`s not to say areas north of
I-40 are out of the woods by any means. The latest HRRR is
indicating bowing of the line as it approaches Nashville. Can`t
stick to that strictly by any means as far as location, but it`s
an indicator that the Slight Risk across the north is warranted.
I alluded to the Wind Advisory a moment ago and it has to be
stressed that winds even outside of the thunderstorms could be
wicked at time. 40-50 mph gradient wind gusts aren`t out of the
question, as strong as the LLJ will be. With the grounds still
saturated, I have a feeling there will be a lot of trees down
tomorrow between the gradient winds and the thunderstorm winds.
This is the time to review your safety plan and it`s also the time
to remind people to take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings seriously.
It doesn`t matter whether the wind is spinning in a circle or in a
straight line at 70 mph. Trees come down in either instance. Have
a place where you can take shelter if you go under any kind of
warning tomorrow.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...An area of mainly light showers will affect most
of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau early this
evening. The remainder of the evening and overnight appears to be
largely rain-free. Tomorrow, a strong cold front will push through
Middle Tennessee with a line of convection likely to form along
the front and track across the mid state beginning after 12Z. A
broad area of showers should linger for several hours even after
the surface front passes through. Low-level wind shear is going to
be an obvious hazard throughout the TAF period.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday for
all of Middle TN.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Potent storm system will bring a variety of hazards tonight and
Saturday. Flash flooding concerns have increased due to the swath
of heavy rainfall that occurred overnight and this morning
northwest of the Ohio River. Already around 2 inches have fallen
from around kcgi up into southwest Indiana. Fortunately, rainfall
rates have been rather low. This rainfall has been associated with
a zone of persistent warm moist advection and moderate elevated
instability.
The high rainfall rates expected later tonight will pose a serious
problem where heavy rainfall caused flooding today. There is good
model agreement that an organized round of convection will move
east from the Ozarks tonight. The timing shown in the hrrr model
is representative of many other models, which take the convective
system across se Missouri from 06z to 10z, then across southern
IL and far western KY around 12z to 15z. High rainfall rates will
accompany this convection, possibly up to an inch in an hour. An
additional 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast from this afternoon
through Saturday in the watch area, which covers all but the khop
area.
The severe weather potential has increased somewhat, as well.
Instability is generally higher than the models have indicated.
Elevated most unstable capes (mucapes) have been in the 500 to
1000 j/kg range over se Missouri, per spc mesoanalysis. Weak
surface-based instability is forecast to develop over se Missouri
this evening. The strong to severe convection over the Ozarks is
forecast to move into an environment of very strong wind shear
late tonight over se Missouri, with 850 mb winds near 60 kt. There
is some potential for the convection to maintain intensity after
it crosses the Mississippi River around 12z, despite a model
signal for the instability to weaken. The tremendous shear (50
knots down to 1500 feet agl) and strong forcing associated with
the potent 500 mb shortwave may compensate for the weaker
instability. The potential exists for an isolated tornado or two,
in addition to pockets of wind damage. The northern edge of the
surface based instability corresponds rather closely with the edge
of the spc slight risk area for both days 1 and 2. The strongest
convection should exit western Kentucky by around 18z Sat.
The third hazard is strong non-convective winds. As mentioned,
more than one model is indicating winds around 50 knots less than
2k feet above ground, mainly early to mid morning Saturday. The
timing and strength of surface wind gusts will depend on low level
lapse rates, which will depend on the timing of convection and
how much diurnal heating occurs. The models are not in agreement
on details that fine scale. The high-res hrrr complicates the
issue by developing an intense wake meso-low behind the
convective system. This scenario cannot be ruled out either. The
Wind Advisory will remain in effect tonight into Saturday evening,
though the most impactful winds will occur within a shorter time
frame. There is a slight chance of meeting High Wind Warning
criteria (58 mph gusts) if the wake meso-low develops behind the
storms.
The low pressure system will exit our region Saturday night, with
a few leftover showers in the evening. Winds will diminish and
skies will begin to clear. A brief period of colder northwest
winds will bring temperatures down into the mid 20s to mid 30s
Saturday night. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The overall pattern during work week over the WFO PAH forecast area
will be a broad low amplitude southwest flow Monday through
Wednesday, with ridging aloft Thursday, with a sharp trough over the
area next Friday.
About a ten degree rise can be expected each day on Monday and
Tuesday, as the WFO PAH remains in the warm sector, with a warm
front north of the area during this period. At this time, have low
forecast confidence on the warm advection precipitation generated
for the area Monday night and Tuesday. Regardless little or no
measurable QPF (rain amounts) are forecast for this time period, so
figure most of the precipitation will be Trace amounts. For
collaborative purposes, kept a small chance mention of showers with
a lesser chance of thunderstorm activity over west Kentucky on
Tuesday.
A shortwave is expected to move from the Central Plains and through
the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
European and Canadian numerical guidance are similar with this
feature, so felt comfortable with keeping a chance of precipitation
in place through Wednesday evening.
There is some model disagreement with the NBM (National Blend of
Models) during the daytime hours on Thursday as the mid-upper level
ridge moves across the area. Opted to keep the daytime period dry
with this package.
For Thursday night through the end of the forecast period, kept a
chance of rain in place as the next shortwave moves from the four
corners area of the desert southwest to Michigan by Friday night.
Don`t have high confidence on the low temperature forecast for
Wednesday through Friday night, but had to consider a mention of a
wintry mix (rain and snow) after midnight Wednesday night through
early Thursday morning, then again Thursday night into Friday. Given
the antecedent warm conditions and marginal freezing temperatures,
any snowfall accumulation will be very minor to non-existent at
best.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
There will be a general lull in the rainfall coverage this evening
as a cluster of showers continues to move northward through southern
IL/southwestern IN. Aside from a few breaks in the clouds here and
there, MVFR cigs can be expected in the western half of the region
this evening, with the eastern half decreasing from VFR to MVFR
shortly after midnight. A line of showers and possibly strong to
severe tstms, just ahead of a cold front, is forecast to move
eastward through the region after midnight, starting in southeastern
MO and progressing across eastern parts of the region by midday Sat.
IFR cigs/vsbys should be associated these showers and tstms.
Meanwhile, robust southerly winds, gusting to as much as 35 to 40
knots ahead of the front, will turn to the west or southwest late,
after a period of becoming light and variable.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for KYZ001>016-018>020.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DWS
AVIATION...DB