Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/01/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 The forecast looks to be on track. Just waiting on precipitation to start approaching northwest North Dakota in the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations of the sensible weather fields into the going forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Quiet weather across the area this afternoon and evening as a weak surface warm front nudges its way eastward across central North Dakota. Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to warm ahead of the front, and may see some daily highs occur after sunset east of Highway 83 after the warm front passes through. A mid level shortwave is moving along the Canadian border this afternoon, but is only producing mid to high clouds. A clipper system will move across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight through Wednesday, and will be the primary feature of interest for the short term period. An additional mid level shortwave to the south of the clipper, along with low level warm air advection, may lead to the development of light precipitation from northwest into north central North Dakota late tonight. Model soundings suggest this precipitation will fall in an environment with maximum temperatures aloft anywhere from +1 to +4 C. The RAP has been consistently warmer than other guidance. Therefore, with surface temperatures below freezing, freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all possible precipitation types through tonight. The QPF is expected to be light, but could still see a few tenths of an inch of snow and a thin layer of ice in some areas across northwest and north central North Dakota through Wednesday morning, enough to make surfaces slick. A steady stream of mid level PVA will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday afternoon. By this time, precipitation is expected to be a rain/snow mix across the north and rain elsewhere as most locations see highs above freezing under the warm sector of the clipper. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A cold front will move down from Canada Wednesday evening and into the night. Chances for precipitation will mainly be confined along the cold front Wednesday night, with rain/snow eventually changing to all snow. Any accumulations should be light. There were previous concerns for freezing drizzle potential behind the cold front late Wednesday night. While there is certainly a loss of ice production aloft, the current suite of guidance does not appear to contain enough low level saturation and vertical lift to support freezing drizzle, so will leave out of the forecast with this issuance. Several clippers are forecast to move across the region through the long term period. Temperatures will vary, but bitterly cold Arctic air is expected to remain locked up in Canada. The first clipper to arrive in the long term period is late Thursday into Friday. This clipper will give us our best chance of accumulating snow. Only expecting around 1-2 inches at this time, but there are some hints in frontogenesis and EPV fields that mesoscale banding may be possible. After a brief period of ridging late Friday into Saturday, the next clipper arrives late Saturday into Sunday. Most guidance keeps us dry for this clipper passage, but winds look to be much stronger. Depending on how temperatures impact the snowpack and additional snowfall from now until then, cannot rule out some minor blowing snow concerns on Sunday. Winds may reach headline criteria. Another clipper or two look to move through early to mid next week, but predictability decreases past this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 VFR conditions are expected for the first few hours of the period. However, a clipper system will enter the northwest overnight, brining with it mainly MVFR ceilings and a mix of light snow, freezing rain, and sleet across portions of the west and north. As this precipitation spreads south and east, expect precipitation to be either light rain and/or light snow by late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon/evening hours. Southwesterly winds will increase through the period with some gusts potentially exceeding 20 knots across the west. Low level wind shear remains a concern tonight and into Wednesday morning across the southwest and south central. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...Hollan LONG TERM...Hollan AVIATION...ZH