Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/25/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1010 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across Quebec will ridge into our region and provide
dry weather through Thursday. The next chance for any precipitation
will arrive Thursday night into Friday with increasing chances
of rain, possibly a mixture of rain and snow across the North
Country.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
high pressure will continue to ridge into the region overnight
which will maintain dry weather and through Christmas Day. The
main weather concern for tonight is the potential for fog to
move into far western New York late tonight and into Wednesday
morning. This fog and stratus can easily be seen on Nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery, and is located across eastern
Ohio and central Lake Erie. Light easterly surface winds will
keep this to our west for most of the night, but as the high
moves further away surface winds will become SSW. This flow will
move the stratus and fog very close to the far western New York
and the Niagara Frontier. Following the HRRR and other
mesoscale guidance, expect that this fog to remain north and
west of downtown Buffalo, probably just clipping Niagara County
and Grand Island. If this happens, it would be roughly between 6
a.m. and noon on Christmas day. There is a potential for locally
dense fog and possibly freezing fog, but confidence is not high
enough to issue any headlines.
Otherwise, a marginally strong sw low-level jet H925-H8 up to
30 kts closer to the warm front will keep temps mainly steady in
the upper 20s to lower 40s across western NY. It will be a bit
colder closer to the surface high toward Finger Lakes and the
North Country where overnight lows will range from the teens to
upper 20s.
There will be renewed warm air advection Wednesday afternoon
with the passage of a weak warm front and as upper heights
start to build. This will lead to well above normal temperatures
for Christmas Day. Projected inbound thermal profile and mixing
potential translating into temperatures warming into the upper
40s and lower 50s from the western Finger Lakes and Genesee
Valley westward with around 40 degrees across the North Country.
Favor an optimistic cloud forecast with dry conditions and
mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak shortwave along with the northward pushing front will
bring in a bit more moisture Wednesday night, but with little
forcing expect only an increase in cloud across the area.
A period of deeper southwesterly flow will exist across the area
Thursday and Thursday night as the upper ridge axis eases eastward
and greater height falls commence upstream. A greater northward
transport of moisture will emerge during this time. This noted
increase in moisture quality may support the development of a few
light rain showers starting late Thursday afternoon or Thursday
evening as a lead surface trough and trailing cold front transit the
region. The underlying forcing remains weak, so simply a low end
potential and of limited coverage/duration. Thursday again should
feature above average warmth with highs ranging from the upper 30s
across the North Country to the mid and upper 40s across far western
New York.
Moisture quality continues to improve Thursday night with
additional chances for showers, although thermal profiles suggesting
it will likely be cold enough to support some light snow showers or
even some freezing rain across portions of the North Country.
On Friday any risk for any freezing rain across the North Country
will end early as warmer air floods northeastward following the
passage of the warm front. At the same time sharply diminishing lift
and moisture in the wake of the warm front should result in greatly
reduced precip chances for the remainder of the day, with a
trailing cool front looking to be far too weak and moisture
starved to produce much more than some scattered light showers
as it traverses our area during the afternoon.
By Friday evening the trailing cool front should be largely to our
east. Increasing ridging and drying in its wake will bring an end to
any lingering light showers across the North Country, while
supplying dry and quiet weather to the remainder of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An amplified upper air pattern will be present this long term period,
with the Great Lakes region starting the period under an amplified
ridge, and fair weather. Under a deep trough over the Plains, a
storm system will deepen, driving a warm front through the Great
Lakes region Saturday night. On the eastern fringes of this warm
front a few rain showers may sneak into WNY late Saturday night.
Sunday our region will be within the warm sector of this storm
system, with a mild southerly flow bringing low to mid 50s across
WNY, and upper 40s east of Lake Ontario. As the storm system nears
us from the Plains there will be an increasing threat of mainly rain
showers Sunday.
The models are still somewhat in disagreement with the passage of
this system`s cold front...and leaned upon the slower ECMWF within
this amplified pattern...bringing the cold front across our region
Monday with additional rain showers. The cold air will deepen behind
this front to allow a change over to rain/snow through the day
Monday, with cold air sufficiently deep enough by Monday night to
support lake effect snow bands falling to the east of the Lakes
through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No issue for aviation operations with VFR expected through
09Z. The main concern is the risk for areas of dense fog to
clip the area. By a narrow margin, this is likely to reach KIAG
around 11Z, but most guidance keeps it `just` to the west of
KBUF. This bears close attention since areas of fog upstream
have lowered visibility to a quarter mile at many locations. Any
fog will likely dissipate by 15Z or so, with associated stratus
possible through 18Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR flight conditions through 00Z Thursday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Patchy fog with local IFR conditions.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday night Through Friday...Some restrictions possible in
rain showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR with showers.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure centered over Quebec will keep winds and waves below
small craft advisory criteria through at least Thursday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel
SHORT TERM...JJR/TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel/JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1007 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An anomalous upper level ridge will continue to bring a lack of
cloud cover and mild temperatures to the region for the next
couple days. A weak cold front is likely to pass through the
area early Friday, then a stronger cold front will sweep
through the state Sunday night or Monday bringing widespread
rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Large patch of fog and low clouds continues to slink back
toward the area from wrn PA. HRRR and RAP progs continue the
thought of only allowing the clouds/fog to get into Warren
County. The clear skies have already allowed temps to drop to
22F at THV, 25F at SEG, and 25F at HMZ. These numbers should
level off soon, though, as they near the dewpoints. Fog is
possible as well, mainly in the southern valleys. "That
wonderful nose of yours will cut through the murkiest storm
they can dish up." -Santa
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure brings quiet weather for Christmas Day with full
sunshine and temperatures above average yet again. Perhaps some
increase in high clouds tomorrow night with mild temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front lifting into the region from the Ohio Valley could
produce a bit of light rain/drizzle across the northern
mountains late Thursday into early Friday. Deeper moisture and
more significant large scale forcing ahead of mid level
shortwave are progged to pass well north of the forecast area.
Over central Pa, model soundings shows a relatively shallow
layer of moisture and southerly flow, favoring the best chance
of measurable rain over the northern mountains, where orographic
forcing will be greatest.
The bulk of medium range guidance indicates a more potent cold
front will sweep through the area Sunday night or early Monday.
Strong forcing and a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture is progged
to accompany the fropa and latest GEFS projects rainfall of
between 0.5 and 1 inch. Have therefore ramped POPs upward into
the likely category Sunday into Monday AM. Also expect breezy
conditions behind the cold front Monday and Tuesday.
Both the 00Z NAEFS and ECENS indicate a return to drier
conditions and more seasonable temperatures early next week, as
upper trough swings over the state.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of dense fog west of the Laurel mountains all day today
is inching closer to the forecast area. This increase in low
level moisture may affect KJST and KAOO overnight. Otherwise,
good VFR conditions will continue through Christmas Day.
.Outlook...
Thu-Fri...Low cigs and isold --shra possible N Mtns late in
period.
Sat... No sig wx expected.
Sun... Low cigs and rain, poss LLWS
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert
AVIATION...Tyburski
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
742 PM PST Tue Dec 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...24/301 PM.
Precipitation will develop along the Central Coast overnight then
spread across the region by early afternoon. The heaviest rain
and snow will fall late Wednesday night into early Thursday with
gusty easterly winds. Conditions will clear on Friday and
temperatures will be near normal by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/740 PM.
***UPDATE***
It was a pleasant day today with a sunny start and a mostly
cloudy finish. Hgts were only 552 DM today and as a result max
temps across the coasts and vlys only reached the upper 50s or
lower 60s
All eyes on Christmas as a large cold upper low will roll into and
through Srn Ca.
Unfortunately this storm has been a very difficult to predict and
the latest thinking is different from even just 12 hours ago. The
upper low is now forecast to develop a little more to the west of
the state and then start its eastward swing a little later. This
has resulted in delay of the onset of the main rain band. Cannot
rule out a few stray showers overnight but if there are any they
should be pretty inconsequential. In the morning a trof ahead of
the main system will roll through the Central Coast and will bring
light rain to the area nothing more than a quarter inch though.
This trof will dissipate as it rolls into VTA and LA counties.
There will likely be some stray showers but nothing much. Both the
HRRR and the NAM agree that the main rain band will move into SLO
and SBA counties early tomorrow evening...into VTA county mid or
late evening and then into LA county before dawn.
Will have to wait for the GFS run but beginning to think that
there is a chance that this storm may not quite live up to its
billing esp with respect to snow. But not ready to give up yet as
the NAM has not been the mdl of choice over the past few days.
Will issue update soon to slow arrival of rainfall.
***From Previous Discussion***
The much more impactful part of this storm will come Wednesday
night into Thursday as the upper low tracks south just west of the
coastline and south to southeast flow increases below 850mb. The
strong orthogonal flow across the Transverse mountains and
synoptic forcing from the frontal boundary will generate periods
of very heavy rain, mostly south of Pt Conception during this
period. There is a little bit of instability over the coastal
waters but because the low is expected to stay offshore most of
the convective potential will remain there as well. However, even
without thunderstorms the upslope enhanced rain rates will peak at
around .75"/hr which is right at the very low end of where we
could see some minor debris flows near the recent burn areas.
Should the low track a little farther east and bring more of that
convective potential into the mainland areas that could be enough
to push this into a flash flood watch situation (especially
LA/Ventura Counties) and will see how the pattern evolves over
the next 24 hours. Rain amounts from earlier forecasts still look
good, generally 1-2" coast/valleys 2-4" mountains, and again 90%
of that falling Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
The biggest impact from this system is likely to be the snow and
very low snow levels impacting some major roads and communities,
including the Antelope Valley Thursday. The pattern is looking
very similar to what we saw over Thanksgiving with strong
northeast wrap around flow developing Thursday morning across our
interior (including the Cuyama and Antelope Valleys). Given the
good consistency in the models the last couple days decided
confidence was high enough to go with a Winter Storm Watch for the
AV with up to 8" of snow possible (especially in the foothills).
Not as much in the Cuyama Valley but enough for a Winter Weather
Advisory. Higher elevations of the mountains in LA/Ventura
Counties could see up to 2 feet of snow.
The strong northeast flow Thursday will result in gusty winds
across much of the area, possibly advisory level in the LA/Ventura
coast/valleys.
Precip will taper off Thursday afternoon and night, lingering
longest across the eastern portion of the AV and San Gabriel
Mountains. Dry weather expected Friday but still breezy and cool.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/123 PM.
Much quieter period of weather this weekend into early next week.
Dry and warmer over the weekend as a brief ridge builds. That will
break down Sunday as another trough approaches. However, recent
model solutions have shifted this trough farther east making it
more of an inside slider pattern which significantly cuts down on
the available moisture. All the GFS ensemble members have removed
rain from their forecasts but a few EC ensembles still show a
little precip so will keep some low pops going Sunday night into
Monday but the trends are definitely drier.
Models differ quite a bit after that in terms of where that upper
low will go but all solutions still pointing to a dry forecast
Tue/Wed for New Years eve and day.
&&
.AVIATION...25/0128Z.
At 0045Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer nor any inversion.
Good confidence in TAFs through 14Z. Then less confidence due to
timing of the onset of rain and lower cigs associated with the
rain. Light showers with VFR cigs are possible at every site but
KPMD AND KWJF aft 14Z with increasing chcs of shower activity and
MVFR cigs aft 20Z.
KLAX...Good confidence in TAF through 14Z. Then less confidence
due to timing of the onset of rain and lower cigs associated with
the rain. Light showers with VFR cigs are possible aft 14Z with
increasing chcs of shower activity and MVFR cigs aft 20Z. Good
confidence in no east wind component through 02Z there is a good
likelyhood of 8 kt or more of an east wind component after 06Z on
the 26th.
KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 14Z. Then less confidence
due to timing of the onset of rain and lower cigs associated with
the rain. Light showers with VFR cigs are possible aft 14Z with
increasing chcs of shower activity and MVFR cigs aft 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...24/156 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the current
forecast. Hi confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
across the southern zone (PZZ676) through this evening. Otherwise,
winds and seas should remain below SCA levels tonight and
Wednesday. For Wednesday night, moderate confidence in strong SCA
level southeast winds with hazardous seas, and north to northeast
winds to SCA levels Thursday into Thursday evening. SCA level seas
can be expected into Friday, then high confidence in winds and
seas dropping below SCA levels for Friday night and Saturday.
There is then a 50% chance of SCA level winds for Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, moderate confidence in
SCA level southeast to northeast winds and hazardous seas. SCA
seas should linger Thursday night then winds and seas should
remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday. There is then a
50% chance of SCA level winds for Sunday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in the current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA
level northwest winds through this evening, otherwise winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.
For Wednesday night, moderate confidence in SCA level southeast
winds, then turning east to northeast Thursday and Thursday night.
Northeast wind will continue Friday with a 30% chance of SCA
level gusts Friday morning. For Friday afternoon through Sunday,
generally high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels, except for a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts on Sunday
in the east Santa Barbara Channel.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM Wednesday to
noon PST Thursday for zone 38. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning for zone 52. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon for zone 53. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening for zone 54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday night
through Thursday evening for zone 59. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).
High surf possible Friday, mainly along the Central Coast.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Kj
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MST Tue Dec 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM MST Tue Dec 24 2019
Initial upper wave lifting northeastward through Arizona this
afternoon, with precip spreading into wrn CO from ern AZ and nwrn
NM. Wave looks fairly vigorous, with even some occasional lightning
associated with stronger convection over far srn AZ earlier today.
Overnight, as disturbance moves through the area, expect precip to
expand across srn CO, with San Juans looking most favored for heavy
snow, especially in the 00z-09z timeframe. Advisory here looks fine,
with even some spotty 8+ inches possible by early morning on west
facing slopes/Wolf Creek Pass area. Remaining mountains and interior
valleys will see a period of snow showers overnight, with some light
accumulations over mainly the higher peaks of the Sangres and
Sawatch range. NAM and a few runs of the HRRR have even suggested
some snow showers on the plains late this evening as wave comes
across, and will throw in some minor pops for much of the east with
the updated forecast. Not expecting anything significant away from
the mountains, but a few spots could at least see some Christmas Eve
snowflakes to enhance the holiday spirit.
On Wednesday, upward vertical motion weakens as main wave shifts
northeastward into the plains, leaving only some light snow showers
over the higher peaks of the Continental Divide by late afternoon.
Westerly component to low and mid level flow should keep max temps
on the mild side once again, with a few near 60f readings on the
plains by late day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM MST Tue Dec 24 2019
Wednesday night-Thursday night...Moderate southwest flow aloft
across the region Christmas night becomes more west to southwest
through the day Thursday and into Thursday night, as one embedded
short wave, ejecting from the deep upper trough across the West
Coast, translates across the Rockies, with short wave ridging then
progged to build across the region ahead of more eastern Pacific
energy digging across the southern California Coast. This system
is progged to develop a closed cutoff low across southwest Arizona
by 12Z Friday. The Wednesday night passing wave keeps light
orographic snow showers in place along and west of the Continental
Divide through the day Thursday, with its associated weak cold
front translating across the plains Wednesday night, ushering in
slightly cooler temperatures (closer to seasonal norms) for
Thursday. Latest models are trying to generate some showers along
this cold front Wednesday evening/night across the plains,
however, the lower atmosphere looks to remain too dry for anything
but a flurry, mainly along the Palmer Dvd.
Friday-Sunday...Still a lower confidence forecast through the
upcoming holiday weekend, as operational models continue to
experience run to run differences on timing and location of the
southern stream cutoff low and its merging with developing northern
stream energy digging across the Northern Tier. The latest GFS and
Canadian runs remain similar to their previous runs, however, the
latest 12Z EC run is much different as tries to lift the cutoff low
across the Central Rockies. At any rate, model ensemble means
(including the EC) have moist south to southwest flow developing
across southern Colorado through the day Friday as the southwest
cutoff low slowly lifts north and east into central New Mexico, with
the low weakening as it merges with a strong northern stream trough
digging across the Rockies Friday night and Saturday. With that
said, forecast challenges remain how far west will the main
precipitation shield set up and how fast the colder air associated
with the northern stream system moves across the Rockies. For
now, I stayed with current NBM pops, which has chance to likely
pops across the southern tier of Colordo and out across the far
southeast plains Friday and Friday night, with lesser chances the
further north and west you go. Precipitation chances continue
through Saturday night, though with developing north to northwest
flow behind the merging systems, would tend to believe snow
showers would be mainly confined to the higher terrain. Currently,
snow levels across the area on Friday are between 6000-7000 with
mainly rain forecast across the plains until snow levels fall
later Friday evening. With that said, the best chances of
accumulating snow and travel impacts through the period look to be
across the southern mts, though too many uncertainties are abound
for any real handle on snowfall amounts. Temperatures at to below
seasonal levels remain in the offing for the weekend, with
Saturday currently looking to be the coldest day, with breezy
north to northwest winds expected areawide.
Monday-Tuesday...Slightly warm (near seasonal) and drier weather
looks to be in place across the region into early next within modest
northwest flow aloft, save for possible orographic snow across the
northern and central mts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 302 PM MST Tue Dec 24 2019
At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hours with light winds. At KALS,
VFR through late afternoon, then a chance of snow showers develops
after 00z, bringing occasional IFR conditions through the night. May
even see some patchy fog for a few hours as precip ends toward 12z.
VFR conditions then return by 17z-18z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
Unseasonably warm weather and quiet conditions persist through
Christmas Day.
The axis of a broad longwave upper-tropospheric ridge has started
propagating eastward over the last 24 hours as a sharp meridional
shortwave trough over NW Mexico begins lifting northeastward.
This trough de-amplifies as it tracks overhead tonight, with the
trough axis passing through by 12Z Wednesday. A region of DCVA
ahead of the shortwave should promote an increase in mid to upper
level saturation/clouds, but the transient nature of the forcing,
coupled with a dry lower-troposphere, should inhibit any
precipitate generated aloft from reaching the surface. Expansive
cirrostratus emanating from the east-central Pacific and streaming
around the mean West Coast longwave should persist through
tomorrow, with a break in the clouds likely Wednesday morning
owing to localized subsidence behind the departing shortwave.
At the surface, a broad region of depressed pressure values
extending northeastward from a Front Range lee cyclone should
tighten into a more pronounced trough tonight into Wednesday as
the mean longwave trough across the West deepens. The boundary
stalls during the day on Wednesday owing to subtle height rises
behind the departing shortwave, but should begin advancing into
the forecast area by Wednesday evening. Highs today reached the
low to mid-60s despite the ample high cloud cover and readings on
Christmas Day should reach similar if not higher values. The EC
/GFS-based MOS guidance and the raw RAP temperature fields
indicate a region of higher temperature values along and just
ahead of the front, a feature often observed in these scenarios
and have boosted temperatures in these areas to account for this
possibility.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
A storm system affects the area Friday through Sunday with colder
temperatures arriving in its wake.
The surface cold front pushes through the forecast area by midday
Thursday, though with only weak CAA behind the front, highs may
still reach the mid-40s to low 50s during the daytime hours.
Surface high pressure spreads along the Platte River Valley
Thursday night, ahead of a secondary H300 shortwave ridge working
along the downstream flank of the upper wave cutting off over the
northern Baja. Model guidance solutions differ on the spatio-
temporal evolution of the upper low as it lifts northeastward
Friday through Sunday. However, there is a strong concensus in a
prolonged period of moderate to locally heavy precipitation from
Friday through Sunday. Isentropic upglide over the baroclinic zone
lifting northward as a warm front on Friday will be the main
driver for light to moderate rainfall, with increasing upper level
kinematic support with the maturing H300 wave and frontogenesis
associated with an advancing cold front driving a more intense
swath of rainfall Friday night into Saturday. GFS forecast
soundings even show a narrow ribbon of 50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE in
the eastern forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning and have
added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast.
Temperatures will also rebound for Saturday in the warm sector
positioned over the eastern forecast area, with many locations
reaching the 50s.
Moisture transport vectors through the lower to middle
troposphere parallel the frontal orientation on Saturday, enabling
for repetitive rounds of rainfall along the sharply-sloped
frontal surface. In addition, forecast PWATs of 0.75 to 1 inch
would be in the 99th percentile of observed values for Topeka in
late December, underscoring the unusual moisture fetch attendant
with this system. The mean 12Z GEFS storm-total QPF for Topeka is
centered around 1.5 inches, with a solid clustering of members
between 1 and 2 inches. Whether a deformation zone forms within
the colder sub-freezing airmass on Sunday remains even more
uncertain and hinges on the structure of the lower to mid-
troposphere cyclone, thus the forecast contains a broad region of
lower PoPs through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
VFR continues at terminals as a strengthening LLJ ensues aft 00Z,
increasing low level speed shear from the southwest at 40 kts, up
to 50 kts aft 03Z. Some of these winds may mix down to the sfc,
keeping sfc winds near 10 kts sustained overnight. Gusty winds
return shortly after sunrise with the potential for restricted ceilings
dropping southward shortly after the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
Record high temperatures for December 25:
68 degrees at Topeka, set in 1922 and 2016
64 degrees at Concordia, set in 2016
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...65/Skow