Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/10/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
926 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into Quebec overnight, dragging its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region late Tuesday night and remain through Thursday, before shifting offshore of New England as low pressure develops over and approaches from the southeastern United States. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... KLWX WSR-88D at 0130Z shows scattered light showers primarily east of Blue Ridge. Short-range HREF and HRRR has these scattered showers becoming more isolated as the overnight continues, with the overwhelming majority of the CWA staying dry between midnight and daybreak. Temperatures are not going to change much overnight, as low level moist advection and southerly flow keep pumping in warmer air. This will result in overnight lows 5-10 deg F above average. Gusty surface winds before midnight as evidenced by numerous surface reports throughout the CWA at 01Z of G15-25KTS, caused by a 60KT H85 jet which was directly overhead the CWA at 10/00Z. This low level jet will eject northeastward towards Cape Cod by midnight, and the winds will slacken after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... (02Z Update)...Rain showers will develop Tuesday morning, and will be prevalent by Noon across the entire CWA, especially along and east of Interstate 95. The cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday afternoon, which will start to filter in colder air. The 18Z ECMWF continues to be consistent with its prior 4 model runs with measurable snow across much of the CWA Tuesday night. There will be a brief lull in rainfall late tomorrow afternoon and early evening, before the region begins to feel the effects and influence of the right rear quadrant of a 170KT H3 jet which will be optimally positioned late Tuesday night providing jet induced dynamics. By 06Z Wed, the column should be cold enough to support all snow west of a line from Bel Air-Damascus-Sterling-Harrisonburg. Any pcpn that falls after 06Z west of this line will likely be all snow. East of this line, there will be a gradual transition from rain to a mixture to finally all snow by daybreak Wednesday. Accumulations along and east of I-95 will be limited as the race for the cold air to arrive in time before the precipitation departs will be on. There will likely be a sweet spot in this colder region north and west of the Balt/Wash metro areas where 2-3 inches could accumulate on grassy surfaces, i.e., near the Catoctins, northern portions of Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford Counties, and along the Blue Ridge. Impact-wise, I am concerned about I-70 from eastern Frederick County to Hagerstown, and the confluence of other high-speed roads around Frederick MD, including the I-270 corridor from Frederick to Rockville. Motorists on the roads in these areas between midnight and daybreak will be prone to slick roads and low visibilities. The one thing that is working in favor of lesser accumulations on roadways is that temps will max out at least mid-50s CWA-wide today, and along and east of I-95 will be hovering in the lower 60s. I do think that snowfall early Wednesday morning will make its way to the Chesapeake, although the surface temps will still be AOA freezing, thus very unlikely to stick on roadways. I have updated the snow graphics reflecting grassy accumulations to the Bay, and slightly increased snowfall totals north and west of the major metro areas. Reminder...official NWS snowfall forecasts are for accumulations on whiteboards/grassy areas, and not on road surfaces./End 02Z update/ The latest model guidance has honed in on the 10:00AM to 4:00PM window for greatest coverage of shower activity Tuesday, as low level convergence increases along an eastward advancing cold front and PVA associated with another mid level shortwave pivot across. Showers will probably become a bit less widespread for a time during the late afternoon and evening following the frontal passage, but coverage is expected to increase again by late evening into the overnight in concert with RRQ jet dynamics associated with a very strong upper jet. Since the low level front will have passed by Tuesday night, temperatures will begin to cool. As such, rain is expected to change to snow. There is still uncertainty in the timing of temperatures becoming cold enough for snow, especially east of the Blue Ridge where downsloping and compressional warming effects tend to be most notable. Even when precipitation changes to snow, surface temperatures will likely be near or above freezing, so snow may have trouble sticking in the lower elevations. Overall, the setup remains largely unchanged, with typical run to run and model to model variability noted. The highest confidence in snowfall accumulations will be over the higher terrain (above about 1000 feet), with the higher elevations of north-central/northwestern Virginia likely to see the highest totals. Even though boundary layer temperatures are expected to be marginal in the lower elevations and especially in the I-95 corridor, the timing of wintry precipitation lines up with the Wednesday morning commute, and the powerful mid/upper jet dynamics may result in localized heavier bands of precipitation, beneath which snowfall rates could overcome surface temps and result in accumulation even on paved surfaces. Precipitation should come to an end by midday Wednesday, with gusty northwest winds ushering in an Arctic airmass in its wake. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Guidance overall is in good agreement with the synoptic pattern concerning the long term. A strong area of high pressure moves eastward out of the Great Lakes region and extends down the majority of the Eastern Seaboard. The resultant is dry yet chilly conditions expected for Thursday. At the same time, low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico and will begin to lift northeastward late Thursday night into Friday. While guidance is in better agreement about the timing of precip, there is still some spread in regards to timing, track and temperatures. The GFS/GEFS bring precipitation into the CWA by Friday morning, while the ECMWF/EPS delay precip onset by about 6 hours. Interesting to note that today`s 12Z ECMWF suite advanced the precip by about 6 hours, compared to the 12 hour difference (from the GFS) it showed yesterday. Therefore, there is better confidence that precip onset will occur by Friday afternoon. With the chilly air mass in place, some wintry precipitation (freezing rain), will be possible at the onset, mainly near and west of the Blue Ridge. Elsewhere, mainly plain rain is most likely. The low will exit the region by early Saturday morning with some partial clearing expected for the afternoon. Dry weather persists through Monday as temperatures remain slightly on the cooler side of normal. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR CIGS will prevail through 05Z/midnight then improve to LIFR and remain through daybreak. Winds should start to relax too after 05Z as the H85 ejects northeastward. Latest guidance pegs the 15-21Z window Tuesday for most likely showers and sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs. A brief respite is anticipated Tuesday evening, before precipitation re-develops and changes to snow after midnight. The most likely terminal to see accumulation is MRB, least likely at CHO/DCA, though there could be a quick coating even on paved surfaces at any terminal if a localized heavier band of snow moves overhead, overcoming marginal surface temperatures. VFR returns by midday Wednesday with gusty NW winds. Another round of rain seems definite Friday afternoon into Saturday as coastal low pressure develops to the southwest and lifts northeast. Expect IFR conditions in moderate rain Fri night and Saturday. Mixed pcpn possible mainly near MRB. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to blow SCA overnight as the H85 jet impacts continue. There will likely be a lull in the winds Tuesday, so the headline drops to just the lower most Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac. Winds likely increase in NW flow behind a cold front Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. Winds lighten Wednesday night through Thursday night as high pressure builds overhead. SCA conditions possible Friday into Saturday as pressure gradient tightens in advance of a coastal low pressure lifting northeast. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ531>533- 538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lee NEAR TERM...Lee SHORT TERM...Lee(update)/DHOF LONG TERM...MSS AVIATION...LFR/DHOF MARINE...LFR/DHOF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1001 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 .UPDATE... Latest surface analysis places a cold front from Camden, Tennessee southwest back through Bolivar, Tennessee, and into Oxford, Mississippi. North and west of the front, temperatures are in the 50s with light rain and gusty northwest winds. South of the front, temperatures are still in the low to mid 60s with westerly winds. Latest Hi-Res data remains pretty consistent wrt to mixed precipitation for tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. The aforementioned front is expected to push completely south and east of the area overnight, dropping temperatures into the 30s areawide. However, the majority of the area is expected to remain at or above freezing tomorrow. Overrunning precipitation will develop and remain along and south of I-40 tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours, fed by a southern branch shortwave. As the southern wave phases with the northern jet in the afternoon hours, a more concentrated area or snow in the form of a band or two may set up over northern Mississippi by the late afternoon hours. Both the HRRR and NAM have continued to advertise this solution for successive runs. If a band or two can set up over an area for an extended period, accumulations could approach an inch over portions of northeast Mississippi. However, confidence still remains low as the cold and dry air will likely undercut the moisture, resulting in drizzle or nothing at all. The current forecast captures the mixed precipitation well during the morning hours with a changeover to mostly light snow in the afternoon hours. Accumulations will be confined to mainly elevated and grassy surfaces and should remain below half an inch. Unless 00Z model data or Hi-res model data drastically changes, the impacts look to be little to non-existent as no accumulations are expected on roadways at this time. AC3 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ UPDATE... Update for 00Z Aviation. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ DISCUSSION... 20Z / 2 PM CST surface map showed an Arctic cold front over southern MO. The freezing line extended from Kansas City to Dubuque to Green Bay. GOES water imagery showed subtropical moisture extending from a small upper low over southern AZ, eastward across the TX and the southeast states. The aforementioned compact upper low will track east into TX by midday Tuesday, weakening as it phases with a longwave trof axis extending from the upper Midwest to the southern plains. Rainfall will expand downstream over the lower MS River valley, supported by an elevated warm conveyor belt and isentropic lift over the front. For the Midsouth, this main area of rain will set up along and south of I-40 in the morning, and then translate east during the afternoon. It is along the northern periphery of this precip shield where thermal profiles will become favorable for mixed (sleet/snow/rain) precip. Further north, toward the MO/KY borders, lift will be significantly weaker, confined mainly to a narrow band of marginally-moist isentropic upglide. Model soundings depict less of a sleet potential from Jonesboro over across NW TN Tuesday afternoon, with rain/snow a mixture more likely. With surface temps above freezing across the area Tuesday afternoon, expect snow/sleet accumulations to be light and mainly confined to grassy areas. As we head into Tuesday evening, precip will end over west TN and east central AR, leaving weakening rain/slow/sleet over north central and portions of northeast MS. 12z models were in agreement in ending precip over northeast MS by midnight Tuesday night, followed by temps cooling to below freezing during the overnight. With light winds expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, evaporation of moisture on bridges may not complete before temps fall below freezing. A few slick spots on bridges Tuesday night may be main impact of this marginal winter event. Sunny skies and temps in the 40s should follow for Wednesday, The model depict an open southern branch upper trof passage Thursday night into Friday. This system won`t have much moisture to work with until it gets to the east of the Midsouth. After this system exits, zonal flow will transition to southwesterly, setting up for our next chance of measurable rainfall next Monday. PWB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs A sfc cold front continues to move into the Mid-South this evening causing winds to shift NW then N. Winds are currently 8-12kts, however, as the front passes gusts 18-21kts are possible. Cigs have improved to VFR/MVFR for the time being but are expected to lower to MVFR with the onset of rain showers. Rain will begin shortly after 06Z, becoming a RA/SN mix by mid-morning and -SN by early tomorrow afternoon. Have not included -SN at TUP at this time based on temperatures and low confidence. Winds will remain out of the north tomorrow generally 8-10kts and gusts possible at TUP. 17 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted across the area at 23Z with an area of low end MVFR CIGS along and west of Mobile Bay. General low end MVFR conditions are expected to become IFR with local LIFR conditions along and just north of the I-10 corridor as southerly winds over the area weakens to around 5 knots or less. Impact to operations at area TAF sites are possible after 06Z as dense fog forms. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise to low end MVFR CIGS and VFR VISBYS. A slowing cold front moves south across the area Tuesday, bringing scattered rain showers along with drops in conditions to the IFR/MVFR juncture. The I-20 corridor is expected to be impacted after 21Z Tuesday afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 knots will become northerly around 10 knots as the cold front moves south across the area. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A CONUS-wide trough is currently present aloft, with a prominent shortwave over the southwest CONUS. This feature is expected to progress eastward over the southern CONUS tomorrow and towards the southeastern CONUS through midweek. A surface cold front will also approach the region late tonight into early tomorrow, increasing showers from the northwest. Model reflectivity shows showers in the form of a line, with scattered showers ahead of the line, that will move from northwest to southeast over the region through midweek. Model soundings for areas near the coast and even further inland show CAPE values generally between 200 and 700 J/kg Tuesday morning and through the afternoon. Therefore, this combined with frontal forcing will lead to the possibility of a few thunderstorms as the line moves through Tuesday morning and through the afternoon. The other concern will be the potential for fog development tonight into early tomorrow morning due to southerly flow leading to increased warm and moist air. Some of this fog may become dense towards dawn, particularly for Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and areas surrounding. Model guidance from the SREF and HRRR also supports this. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued from tonight through mid-morning tomorrow for Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound areas. Will monitor through the evening to see if the advisory needs to be extended to the land areas as well. Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal norms tonight, with lows around 60 degrees further inland (SW AL and SE MS) and in the mid 60s along and south of I-65. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s for areas south of I-65, but highs will be lower in the interior SW AL and SE MS due to FROPA. Expecting highs to only reach the mid to upper 60s in this region. /26 SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A cold front associated with an upper trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley pushes offshore Tuesday night, ushering in a cooler and more stable low-level airmass. Aloft, the upper trough lags to the west, with an unsettled southwest flow continuing and showers lingering across the area throughout the day Wednesday. Rain chances end over inland areas Wednesday night as the upper trough departs to the east, though a slight chance continues right along the coast. Another trough moves east across Texas right on the heels of this one, with southwest flow returning aloft by Thursday night as it approaches the lower Mississippi River Valley. Rain chances increase across the entire area Thursday and Thursday night in response to the impinging trough. /49 LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The upper trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley continues east across the Deep South during the day Friday. A surface low develops over the northern Gulf as the upper trough takes on a slight negative tilt. The low moves quickly northeast, but in doing so keeps the local area in its northwestern quadrant and firmly entrenched in a cool and stable airmass with daytime temps hovering in the 50s across much of the area. Above the stable surface layer, however, south to southwest flow prevails and enough mid-level instability develops for a chance at some elevated convection mixed in with the showers. Best rain chances Friday and Saturday will be over the eastern half of the area, in closer proximity to the passing surface low and beneath the best region of upper divergence associated with the passing trough. Drier air finally moves into the area Sunday and Monday, with skies clearing and temps climbing back into the 60s. /49 MARINE...Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon. Areas of marine fog may restrict visibility tonight over bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters. Thus, Dense Fog Advisories may be needed tonight. Winds will then shift from onshore to offshore and increase dramatically across the marine area Tuesday night as a cold front moves east over the region. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory was issued and is in effect from Tuesday night through Friday morning. Moderate to strong easterly flow will then take hold for late week, especially over the open Gulf waters. Light to moderate northwest flow will then follow for the beginning of the weekend. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675. Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>632. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1016 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west tonight, before crossing the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front Tuesday night before moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday. Another storm system will impact the region for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1006 PM EST Monday... Cold front was located from the Ohio/Indiana border south into western Tennessee this evening. Aside from patchy light rain across the area, mainly dry tonight, before better lift ahead of the front moves in Tuesday morning. Fog will be an issue early near the Triad, but overall mainly cloudy skies should render less fog issues. Temperatures will start to warm overnight in the east as flow turns more southwest. Previous early evening discussion... Update to increase pops over the southeast WV to Alleghanys of VA based on radar trends. The 18z NAM/21z RAP showing this area overall better than any of the other high-res solutions. This precip looks short-lived but overnight expect patchy light rain/drizzle along the Blue Ridge and east with fog. Will see showers increasing ahead of the cold front in the mountains toward dawn. Previous discussion from early this afternoon... A cold front from the Great Lakes to the southern plains this afternoon will move east tonight into the Ohio valley and across the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday. The first batch of rain associated with the isentropic lift and warm front aloft is lifting northeast out of the forecast area as expected this afternoon. Lingering showers and patches of drizzle will continue this evening into tonight. Moisture with the approaching cold front will increase across the mountains late tonight resulting in a redevelopment of widespread precipitation west of the Blue Ridge toward daybreak Tuesday. Low temperatures may occur this evening, otherwise temperatures will be nearly steady or slowly rising overnight into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures readings will range from around 40 degrees in the northern mountains to the lower 50s in the southeast. A cold front will move east across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture associated with the cold frontal passage will linger post surface fropa, with the precipitation not ending until the associated 850mb cold front clears the area late Tuesday night. There is enough cold air on the backside of the front to change rain to snow in the mountains Tuesday afternoon. The best CAA will be delayed several hours from the front. Through 00z Wednesday, any snow accumulations will be light from a coating to around half inch in western Greenbrier county in southeast West Virginia. High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Confidence in the Near Term forecast is moderate. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 226 PM EST Monday... The surface low along the front will be in the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday evening as it slowly fills and moves east and offshore. High pressure builds from the Tennessee Valley across the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night then gets reinforced with a 1040MB high over Pennsylvania by Thursday morning. This will set up a strong wedge for Thursday and Thursday night. 850MB temperatures begin to drop below zero on Tuesday afternoon and will range from zero in the piedmont along the Virginia/North Carolina border to -8 in southeast West Virginia by Wednesday morning. Favorable lift in the form of upper diffluence in the right entrance region on the upper jet will cross the area mainly between 06z/1am and 12Z/7AM Wednesday. Forecast of partial thicknesses support snow northwest of a Buckingham to Boone line by Wednesday morning with a transition zone of winter mix southeast between the snow and the rain over central North Carolina. Bufkit forecast soundings show more sleet than freezing rain in the transition area. Models still end all the precipitation across the region by Wednesday afternoon. But seeing no support in the HREF/SREF and other ensembles for 4 or more inches of snow. HREF does show the potential for over 0.25 to 0.50 inches of flat ice accumulation along the southern Blue Ridge in the 00Z/7PM Tuesday to 12Z/7AM Wednesday (roughly 0.20 of radial ice.) No headlines will be posted today. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM EST Monday... The surface based wedge will remain in place Friday. Seeing significant differences in the surface pattern between the GFS and the ECMWF Friday night through Sunday, with the ECMWF in general slower with the systems in the southern stream. WPC was leaning toward the ECMWF solution in this time frame. Southwest surface and low level winds will warm the airmass and place the region in the warm sector Friday and Saturday. Combination of upper diffluence, deep moisture and upslope flow Friday afternoon into Saturday will support precipitation. ECMWF and GFS bufkit soundings have the precipitation stating as freezing rain on Friday then warm up the column enough for only rain Friday night and Saturday. Leaned toward the cooler NBM temperatures for Friday. Low clouds, snow showers and upslope remain along the western slopes of the central Appalachians through Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 628 PM EST Monday... Ceilings will be fluctuating from IFR or lower in the east with wedge starting to erode to VFR in the west. A few showers will make for sub-VFR vsbys at LWB/BLF, with MVFR vsbys in the east with drizzle/fog. Confidence is high for some improvement in the cigs out east but not anticipating VFR if any to last very long. Strong low level jet above surface inversion creates low level wind shear through about 10z Tuesday. Southwest winds become west along the front then northwest during the day Tuesday. Expect showers to make it into BLF/LWB by 12z, reaching ROA/BCB 11-13z, and LYH/DAN by 18z. These showers will bring sub-VFR ceilings/vsbys with some gusty winds possible in the mountains. Colder air behind the front lags somewhat but could see some snow/sleet mixing into BLF by the end of this taf period. Confidence is high for most of the taf period being sub-VFR, but not as high in the east on breakdown of wedge overnight-Tuesday morning. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Expect widespread low MVFR/IFR conditions to persist through early Wednesday areawide, mainly due to low ceilings but also reduced visibility associated with rain/drizzle/fog, and an eventual change over to snow across the mountains as colder air arrives Tuesday night. A transition to VFR is expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, followed by poor flying conditions again for Friday and into the weekend as low pressure envelops the southeast CONUS. There is also the potential for this system to produce freezing rain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Friday. Sub-VFR is possible on Saturday with precipitation and clouds. Forecast confidence is moderate to high. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...KK/PM/WP
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 PM MST Mon Dec 9 2019 .UPDATE...Adjusted clouds, precipitation, fog, temps and dewpoints for the overnight hours. && .SYNOPSIS...Skies will continue to gradually clear off this evening then some valley fog and patchy very low clouds will likely form by dawn and linger into the mid morning hours. Otherwise dry conditions are expected Tuesday into next weekend with a slow warming trend. && .DISCUSSION...The primary dynamics associated with the upper low moving across SE AZ have moved off to the east and what we are left with is the cold pool aloft and without the sunshine to trigger the convection, it quickly died off this evening. Now we enter the gradual clearing out phase which will be difficult with the abundant low level moisture we have around and we will likely end up with some fog and/or patches of low stratus clouds. With the mid and high clouds quickly dissipating I opted to increase the fog to "Areas" from "Patchy" for the favored valley locations and left some clouds in the Gila valley near the NM border. The HRRR is suggesting LIFR conditions (fairly thick fog) in many of those valleys and it just `feels like` a fog night for many areas. It will be interesting to see how this plays out overnight but be prepared for the potential for fog during your early morning travels. At any rate, I removed the threat of showers from the forecast from here forward and tweaked with the clouds, winds, temps and dewpoints. The sunshine will return tomorrow and you should be safe to wash your car once the puddles disappear as we are not expecting rain at least into the weekend at this time. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. SCT to locally BKN clouds 3k-6k ft MSL through midnight then clouds thinning out. From 10/09Z thru 10/15Z areas of valley fog with VSBYS AOB 3SM and ISOLD-SCT stratus AOB 1k ft eastern valleys. KOLS and KDUG terminals potentially will be impacted. Becoming clear after 10/16Z. Winds diminishing to under 6kts by midnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimal fire weather concerns. Dry conditions return Tuesday and continue into the weekend. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph through the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM MST Mon Dec 9 2019/ The low over central to south-central Arizona continues to bring areas of valley rain and mountain snow showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms. This will continue through the late afternoon hours before ending from the west with partial clearing overnight as the low merges into the base of the broad trough downstream. Patchy fog possible in the early morning hours as things clear out. We`ll probably have enough residual boundary layer moisture and patchy cloud cover to keep from reaching the cold potential of the airmass Tuesday morning, but still freezing in some colder valleys east and south of Tucson. A dry zonal flow the rest of the week with a slow warm-up into the weekend. Another system could impact the region early next week, but the inland trajectory looks kind of dry for our neck of the woods. Primarily gusty winds and cooler temperatures by next Monday or Tuesday. Still seeing some signs of an active pattern the second half of the month with long range ensembles suggesting low height anomalies. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Cerniglia/Meyer Aviation...Rasmussen Fire Weather....Rasmussen Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at