Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/07/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
632 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 No major changes are needed for this update. The 18Z NAM and NAMnest want to bring some light freezing rain across far north central North Dakota tomorrow morning associated with strong low level warm air advection. Even though the RAP does not generate any QPF, its BUFKIT soundings support this potential. Will leave this out of the forecast for now and see if there is greater consensus and/or consistency with the 00Z suite of guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 Tonight we are expecting some patchy fog to form again over the persisting snowpack. Overnight lows will be in the teens east to upper 20s west where there is less/no snow and westerly winds will a little more persistent. Saturday should be mild and dry with continued warm air advection and more robust westerly winds. Temperatures in the upper 40s are likely across western North Dakota with lower readings east where snow will continue moderating temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The concerns for the long term are the chance for accumulating snow with a weak clipper system followed by much colder temperatures next week. Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with timing, placement and amounts of snow for Sunday. It appears snow will start across northwest North Dakota early Sunday morning. Snow will slowly shift southward through the day. Initial precipitation should be rather light with limited ascent and forcing, but snowfall rates/amounts should pick up Sunday afternoon across southwest North Dakota when/where more robust ascent and forcing are expected. There is the potential for some banded snow to develop with mid-level frontogenesis, moderate lapse-rates and upper-level ascent. Generally, between two and four inches of snow is possible from Williston down through Dickinson, Bismarck, Linton and Ellendale. It is possible some locations across the southwest could see some isolated higher amounts if a narrow band of more intense snow does develop. After the snow ends Monday morning, several arctic high pressure systems will bring reinforcing shots of cold air into the region through Thursday morning. High temperatures during this period will only rise to around zero east to the teens west, and overnight lows 10 to 15 below zero. Wind chills could fall into the advisory category of 25 below central and east. Cold and dry for the week after Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The expectation is that MVFR/IFR stratus will continue across central into southeast ND through the night, with conditions gradually improving from west to east Saturday morning. There is also potential for fog developing across northern, central, and into southeast ND tonight with IFR to possibly LIFR visibilities. The MVFR/IFR stratus and potential fog may briefly move over KXWA this evening and early overnight. Otherwise, western ND terminals should see VFR conditions through the forecast period. Expect light winds overnight, becoming west to southwest around 10 kts Saturday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1014 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Clearing skies with colder, drier air moving across the region overnight with high pressure building in from the west. Many areas will have sub- freezing high temperatures on Saturday, followed by a frigid Saturday night. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder and moist air for the first half of the week. This will bring off and on rain for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, and there might be some back-end snow on Wednesday although confidence is very low at this point. We dry out by late Wednesday and return to colder than normal temperatures for early December on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1005 PM update... All precipitation has exited the region. Skies were becoming mostly clear over most of the region. Low pressure was centered off of Cape Cod with high pressure building eastward from the eastern Great Lakes region. The gradient between the two was causing some very gusty winds...Worcester/Willimantic/Windsor Locks were all gusting to 26 kt (around 30 mph) during the past hour. These winds are forecast to only be brief, until the air gets colder and the boundary layer decouples. Have combined the RAP wind gusts with existing grids to arrive at wind gust forecast. This has necessitated extending the Small Craft Advisories for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay through the night. Overnight lows should reach the teens to lower 20s, with mid 20s to lower 30s Cape Cod and the Islands. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... Saturday colder and drier air pours into the region as high pressure builds in, though cyclonic flow lingers aloft. Subsidence under this high will keep things dry and skies mostly clear. Diurnal cumulus should develop given a cyclonic flow set up with cold air advection and daytime heating. Much of the area would see sub-freezing highs, with the interior higher elevations only reaching the upper 20s. Low to mid 30s near the coast. Albedo effect from snow cover would also negate daytime heating. On Saturday night, a combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to drop even more quickly than the previous night. A few locations in the interior higher elevations could even see single digit lows. Elsewhere, widespread teens are expected and 20s on the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights... Cold start to Sunday before temperatures rebound during the day. Rain spreads in early next week with temperatures trending upward. Potential for strong winds on Monday and Tuesday especially across eastern MA. Temperatures trending downward on Wednesday and Thursday. Possibility of snow as precipitation is ending on Wednesday. Daily Concerns... Sunday... Cyclonic flow initially with a mid level ridge building over the eastern Great Lakes. A trough will lift off to the northeast and the ridge will slide in over New England. This will bring clear skies and very light winds with the high overhead. Still have high confidence in strong radiational cooling. Knocked down temperatures toward the 25th percentile of guidance. Held off from the 10th percentile because it seemed too cold along the coastline given there may be some clouds exiting. Nudged down temperatures a bit further in the typical cold spots. Overnight lows range from the single digits above zero across the Berkshires and I-495 west corridor to the mid 20s across Cape Cod. The ridge axis shifts off to the east on Sunday which shifts flow aloft to a southwesterly direction and advects warm air into the region. This will trend temperatures upward during the day. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs ranging from the low 30s across northwest MA to the low 40s along the coast. High confidence in the forecast during this period. Monday and Tuesday... Pattern change underway with zonal flow shifting to a more amplified flow. Models have come into agreement with a northern and southern stream trough digging in from the west. The weaker southern stream trough will dig into the desert southwest on Monday while the northern trough digs into the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes. As the trough digs into the western Great Lakes several shortwaves will ripple along the central and eastern Great Lakes. This will provide lift along with a warm front and spread rain into the region. Still seeing a strong 40 to 70 kt low level jet develop. This continues through Tuesday with the low level jet shifting to the east. The GFS and ECMWF have come into good agreement, but still uncertain how much of these winds will translate to the surface. Did bump up speeds and gusts with gale force gusts anticipated across the coastal waters late on Monday into early Tuesday. If we tap more into the low level jet speeds then winds will need to be increased further. There will also be some instability present and suspect that there will be a few rumbles of thunder, but confidence in particular timing and placement is low at this time. It will be much warmer with high temperatures in the 50s on Monday and Tuesday. Suspect that there will be some 60 degree readings on Tuesday. Could see a good slug of precipitation with GEFS QPF still quite spread out with amounts between 0.75 to 3.0 inches when it is all said and done. Will be worth keeping an eye on for future updates. Low to moderate confidence in the forecast for this time frame. Wednesday and Thursday... Precipitation coming to an end on Wednesday. Overall there is pretty good agreement amongst guidance synoptically, but the ECWMF holds onto heavier precipitation longer than the GEM and GFS. If the ECMWF holds true there could be some snowfall accumulation, but confidence at this point in time is very low. Do have high confidence in the colder air moving in as the trough lifts to the northeast. Temperatures will be trending downward with readings in the low 30s across the west on Wednesday and in the low to mid 40s across the coast and east. Temperatures will be colder on Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 20s across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills to the low 30s along the coast. Moderate confidence in the cooler temperatures, but low confidence in weather expected on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence. 0305Z update... Tonight...Local IFR/MVFR in eastern MA until 05Z-06Z. Otherwise VFR most areas. W-NW winds increasing to 25-30 kt in gusts briefly, for a couple of hours, then diminishing late. Saturday...VFR. Light NW winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. IFR becoming VFR before 06Z. Wind gusts to 25 kt expected, diminshing by daybreak. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence. 1005 PM update... Overnight... Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay through 4 AM because winds were becoming gusty between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure. Have also increased seas to 4 ft on Nantucket Sound based on reports from the Steamship Authority. NW winds gusting to 25-30 kt nearshore and 30-35 kt offshore, slowly diminishing late. Seas 3 to 6 ft except 8 to 10 ft on the southern outer waters. Saturday... Clear skies and light winds. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely. Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain showers likely. Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain showers likely. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ254. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Field/BL/Chai NEAR TERM...Field/Frank/Chai SHORT TERM...Frank/Chai LONG TERM...BL AVIATION...Field/BL MARINE...Field/BL/Chai
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
452 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 223 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Quiet and dry weather will continue this afternoon, as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead. A deck of high clouds will continue to stream across the region this evening, with lower clouds lingering across the north. Some clearing is likely tonight, while winds aloft transition to west-southwest flow. Low level clouds and fog will likely develop again across northeastern Utah and western Colorado Saturday morning. Light winds at the surface combined with lingering low level moisture will support fog forming across the Gunnison and Yampa Valleys, portions of the Grand Valley, and near the Uinta Basin. Patchy areas of fog will quickly clear after sunrise; however, other regions with a more consistent stratus deck aloft (such as Gunnison and Vernal) may experience poor visibilities and low cloud ceilings persisting into afternoon hours. Expect winds to shift towards the west Saturday afternoon, as upper level flow turns zonal ahead of the next system. Zonal flow accompanied with increased winds aloft will briefly improve mixing at low levels for most of western Colorado and eastern Utah. Areas with decent mixing will result in slightly warmer temperatures and could see stronger winds reaching the surface. Mixing should also help conditions improve across areas with lingering low level clouds and morning fog. Otherwise, weather conditions will remain dry across the region into Saturday evening, however cloud clover will begin to spread across the region ahead of the next system. Chances for precipitation also increase late Saturday night, mainly over higher terrain, while the rest of the region will experience mild overnight lows due to the insulation from a blanket of cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Precipitation will break out over much of the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado early on Sunday morning. The trough responsible for the unsettled weather is not particularly strong, but it will make up for this with a broad shield of moisture and favorable westerly upslope flow through the day on Sunday. A diffuse frontal boundary does pass east through the western slope on Sunday afternoon as well, with 700mb temperatures dropping 2-4 degrees across the board by the end of the main event on Sunday evening. This will help snow ratios, especially in the central and northern mountains. Latest QPF guidance in the 12z forecast cycle today showed a slight uptick in precipitation totals, with snow totals possibly exceeding 6 inches in the Park, Flat Top, Gore and Sawatch ranges. Farther south in the Elks and San Juans, close to 1" of liquid is forecast by some models...which could result in nearly a foot of snow in favored westerly and northwesterly slopes. Lower elevations are a bit more tricky, as snow levels and warm air in the valleys will play a role in Precipitation Type early in the event. If enough cold air filters in on Sunday afternoon, an inch or so will be possible in places like Craig, Rifle and Montrose, with 1-3 inches in Steamboat (town), Vail, and Gunnison. The US160 corridor is a particularly challenging forecast, as the San Juan Mountains may block the progress of much of the colder air from the north. Durango could easily see 0" in this case, however a slushy inch or so in the grass is also possible if colder air makes it in before precipitation ends Sunday evening. The trough axis with this system passes east of the Continental Divide by early Monday morning with flow turning northwesterly over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A shallow stream of moisture will remain in place over the northern Colorado mountains in this northwest flow pattern from Monday through Tuesday morning. Favorable upslope flow will result in additional snow accumulations in the northern Parks and Elkhead mountains, however model consistency has not been high in this timeframe. Things finally dry and clear out on Tuesday evening up north as a ridge builds in over the Four Corners for Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a weak, dry trough moving through on Thursday resulting in a mainly cloudy day. The next opportunity for precipitation will arrive by Friday morning as a fast Pacific jet moves inland and into the Great Basin. Both the ECMWF and GFS support the idea of unsettled weather from Friday into Saturday however specific details with this system will have to wait for better model consistency on both temperatures and the position of the best moisture stream. Overall, forecast confidence is moderate throughout the long term. Winter weather headlines will likely be needed in the mountains for the storm arriving on Sunday morning, and will be addressed in forthcoming forecast packages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 445 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Mid level ceilings around 4K to 5K feet persist over the northern valleys at this hour and cross sections suggesting this will continue through the overnight. HRRR data thinks otherwise though as RH values drop off significantly. Satellite data showing some movement to the low clouds so gave the nod to the HRRR with some clearing over the next few hours. KVEL will likely come back down though as dewpoint depressions are very similar to yesterday when fog dropped the airport to 1 1/2 miles and ceilings near 200 feet. Outside of those areas, expect some high clouds especially down south. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ERW LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...TGR
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier, seasonable air mass will build into the region for the weekend. A low pressure system will lift up across the Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance of precipitation to start off the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Northerly winds are continuing to usher drier air into the region through the boundary layer, with clouds now limited to just the far southern tier of ILN counties, and soon to exit the area entirely. Outside of some streaks of cirrus moving southeast through the Great Lakes, skies are expected to be clear overnight, with winds generally becoming light. This has allowed for temperatures to drop significantly already, with several locations (including the NWS office) already reaching the upper 20s. The min temp forecast (mid to lower 20s) still looks mostly good, but some outlying areas may even drop a couple degrees further than that. Comparing to current numbers, the 01Z RAP looked most reasonable, and was used as a basis to adjust the grids for this evening update. Previous discussion > A cold front moving through the area today has resulted in a concentration of light rain primarily south of I-70 with sprinkles to the north. Any remnant showers clear the southeast by late this afternoon with scattered stratocumulus remaining through the evening. Clouds clear overnight and temperatures cool into the mid to lower 20s area wide as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure moves east across the region during the day on Saturday. This leads to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Winds are forecast to be weak and temperatures will be seasonable with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 40s. Upper level clouds stream in from the northwest late in the day but nighttime low temperatures are still expected to drop into the lower 30s (west) and upper 20s (east). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The region will be in southwest low level flow at the beginning of the extended as the area is located between a retreating high pressure center located over the east coast and a cold front in the western Great Lakes into the plains. With the southerly flow, broad isentropic lift will begin to affect the region on Sunday. The NAM continues to produce the light rain showers across the area, while the operational GFS and ECMWF keep the region dry. Will keep continuity and will have a 20 PoP on Sunday only for the Cinci Tri-State. Sunday night into Monday an approaching cold front will increase the lift and rain will become more widespread. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s as the region is on the warm side of the front. Models are still showing some minor differences in the strength and location of the surface low that is driving the cold front. However, they are in pretty good agreement on the timing of the frontal passage. General consensus is that fropa will be late Monday night. With a strong arctic airmass behind the front, it is looking like temperatures will fall on Tuesday. A change over from rain to snow will accompany the change in airmass. With the strong cold air advection will linger flurries Tuesday into Tuesday night. Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as the arctic high builds into the region. Morning lows will be in the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning, and highs will only recover into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon. On Thursday the center of the high will slide off to the east and the airmass will begin moderating. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The warming trend will continue into Friday as highs will push into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front has moved through the area, and winds have shifted to the north at all TAF sites. Rain has also come to an end, and any remaining MVFR ceilings at KCVG/KLUK/KILN will dissipate in the next hour or two. Through the rest of the TAF period, skies are expected to remain VFR and mostly clear, mainly with just some high clouds. With very light north to northeast winds and clear skies tonight, some MVFR/IFR fog appears possible at KLUK. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...Hatzos/McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .UPDATE... Mid level shortwave in northwest flow aloft to exit the GA/FL coastal waters by midnight. Virga associated with this disturbance will end from west to east across SE GA and adjacent coastal waters by 03Z per mosaic radar composite and HRRR trends. inverted surface trough axis with SCT SHRA to remain east of the GA/FL coastal zones tonight. A weak low pressure system will drop into the Western Gulf as well, but not a player for SE GA/NE FL. Weak high pressure will bridge these two systems bringing dry conditions to the forecast area. Extensive mid-high cloudiness expected along and north of I-10 mainly this evening as the aforementioned shortwave darts through the forecast area. Less cloud cover anticipated overnight in wake of this feature. Further south...skies mostly clear per model time/height plots. Winds shift light northerly tonight. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the mid 50s coast. .MARINE... No significant changes to the coastal waters forecast for tonight. Winds will eventually turn to the north tonight increasing to around 10 kt by sunrise Saturday, with further increases in wind speeds during the day Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [614 PM EST]... .Near Term.../through Saturday/... The region will be between an inverted trough off the Atlantic coast, and a low approaching from the central Gulf coast Tonight, with a weak frontal boundary stretched across area between these systems. An upper trough will move across region this afternoon and evening. Additional cloud cover will accompany this trough, with a few sprinkles or light showers possible. During the day Saturday, the trough to the east will move further east, as low over gulf moves slowly to the southwest of the region. High pressure will ridge south across the region, pushing weak frontal boundary to the south. Mainly dry conditions anticipated for Saturday, but a brief shower can not be ruled out. Temperatures will trend near normal this period. .Short Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday night/... Atlantic coast trough will move west back toward the coast Saturday night into Sunday, while the low over the gulf weakens, and ridge continues over forecast area extending from high to the north. A few showers will be possible, mainly near the coast. The low pressure areas weaken Sunday night into Monday, with high pressure building to the east. The high will sink to the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move through Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with a round of showers expected to accompany it. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. .Long Term.../Wednesday through Friday/... High pressure will build to the northwest Wednesday, pushing the front to the south. High pressure will strengthen to the north Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to a period of enhanced onshore flow, and the potential for mainly coastal showers. The high will build to the northeast Thursday night into Friday increasing the onshore flow and potential for showers. Temperatures this period trend near normal Wednesday into Thursday, then above normal for Friday. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] Extensive mid-high cloudiness expected along and north of I-10 mainly this evening as a shortwave darts through the forecast area. Less cloud cover anticipated overnight in wake of this feature. Further south at KGNV and KSGJ...mostly clear conditions. Surface winds will gradually become light northerly. Broken cumulus field around 5000 feet should develop after 15Z SAT as winds turn moist northeasterly at 7-11 knots. .Marine... An inverted trough will be over the coastal waters through Sunday night. High pressure will build to the east southeast Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will move southeast across area waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will build to the northwest Wednesday. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Risk Saturday NE FL Moderate Risk Saturday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 46 67 46 65 52 / 10 10 0 10 10 SSI 52 64 54 65 56 / 10 0 10 10 10 JAX 47 69 54 69 55 / 0 10 20 20 10 SGJ 52 69 57 72 57 / 0 10 30 30 10 GNV 46 70 54 73 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 OCF 46 71 54 76 56 / 0 10 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .DISCUSSION... Temperatures have fallen quickly after sunset under clear skies and very light to calm winds. Min temps will generally be in the low to mid 50s, except upper 40s over Okeechobee county and western (rural) Indian River and St Lucie counties as well NW Volusia/Northern Lake. With good radiational cooling occurring, full recovery of RH is expected in many areas, so patchy ground fog should form. But widespread fog is not expected. On Saturday, high pressure ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard will produce a light north to northeast wind flow. Skies will be mostly sunny in the morning but there will be an increase in mid level cloudiness (altocumulus) by afternoon esp from Orlando northward. No rain is expected as low levels will remain pretty dry. Max temps will range from the lower 70s along the immediate Volusia coast to the upper 70s over the south interior (Okeechobee and adjacent western Treasure coast counties). && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Favorable radiational cooling conditions overnight should lead to some patchy shallow ground fog. However, significant fog is not expected per LAMP and HRRR guidance. Will therefore leave any mention out of the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... No significant changes to current coastal waters forecast. Tonight-Saturday...Favorable boating conditions expected, with veering wind flow from southerly to westerly overnight 5-10 knots, becoming northerly tomorrow. Seas will range from 1-2 feet tonight, increasing up to 3 feet well offshore late Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 51 72 62 74 / 0 10 30 30 MCO 53 75 58 77 / 0 0 10 20 MLB 53 76 63 76 / 0 0 10 20 VRB 53 76 63 77 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 51 74 57 76 / 0 10 20 20 SFB 52 74 58 76 / 0 0 20 20 ORL 54 75 58 77 / 0 0 20 20 FPR 53 77 64 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Kelly/Blottman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
937 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 .UPDATE... Only minor changes during this update. Added additional cloud cover the the entire region as cirrus continues to move into the region from the northwest. Also, made slight adjustments to the diurnal temperature trend overnight to reflect current trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 814 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ AVIATION... VFR conditions across the TAF sites currently. However, patchy low cigs will develop and move across the region. Additional low cigs and patchy fog may redevelop overnight, bringing additional flight category reductions to portions of the region. Otherwise, expect nwly winds around 10 kts to gradually veer around to the ne by sunrise Saturday. /20/ && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/ The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a 500mb short wave now well east of the area in Alabama. In the wake of this feature, the area is in a northwesterly mid-level flow. At the surface, a weak area of relatively low pressure (1017 mb) is centered over southern Louisiana and moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico with a 1029mb high centered well north of the area in Iowa. Diurnal cumulus have develop in an area from Texarkana southwest into east Texas and across central Louisiana with mostly sunny skies otherwise. There is HRRR/NAM 3km agreement that the area will remain in a mid-level northwesterly flow will slowly become more zonal with conditions staying dry as a surface high passes well north of the area through Saturday. Diurnal cumulus will mostly diminish this evening with some pre-dawn stratus developing and patchy fog possible Saturday morning. Partly to mostly sunny skies will decrease in coverage through the day on Saturday with mostly clear skies Saturday night. For temperatures, lows tonight will range from the upper 30s northwest of the I-30 corridor to the upper 40s in central Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Saturday will be a comfortable late Fall day with highs ranging from the upper 50s in southwestern Arkansas and McCurtain County, Oklahoma to the mid 60s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana. Lows on Saturday night will range from the near 40 in southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas to the mid 40s across much of East Texas and northern Louisiana. /04-Woodrum/ LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/ Starting 12z Sunday, generally zonal upper level flow is expected across the area throughout the day Sunday and into Monday morning. Southwesterly low level flow will make a return to the area by early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough will begin digging south across the western CONUS. As this trough works eastward, an associated cold front will begin to move through the area by Monday afternoon. Forcing will be sufficient ahead of the front to support scattered showers to develop. The best chances for precipitation across the area will come post- frontal on Monday night and continue through early Tuesday night. We should see a brief break in the rain for much of the day Wednesday and into Thursday afternoon before another deep upper- level trough is expected to move through the late Thursday night into early Friday morning. There remains some model disagreements in regards to this trough, anywhere from abundant moisture to no moisture. As a result, will leave mention of some low end PoPs in to account for the potential. Despite increasing cloud cover on Sunday, temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable normals. These unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Sunday night and into Monday. Monday will be the warmest day of the upcoming week as temperatures climb to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In the wake of the passing cold front Monday afternoon, temperatures will fall to and remain below normal throughout the remainder of the week. Tuesday night will be the coolest night of the week with portions of the area possibly seeing sub-freezing temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 48 63 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 48 60 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 39 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 42 58 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 42 59 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 44 62 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 45 63 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 50 66 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 20