Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/05/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 548 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1589 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Another quiet and mild day across the area with highs ranging from
the 30s to low 40s as of 2 pm. Some low to mid clouds were present
across parts of western and north-central Wisconsin this afternoon
associated with a large scale upper trough located to the east of
the region.

Mid to high clouds increase late tonight into Thursday as an upper
shortwave trough glides southeast across southern Canada/the far
northern Upper Mississippi River Valley. There are some models
picking up on the development of patchy fog overnight across
southeast Minnesota where a snowpack is present. However, confidence
in this occurring is currently low. Overnight lows will range from
the middle teens to 20s.

On Thursday a weak cold front will move across the area, bringing
light precipitation chances mainly to north-central Wisconsin from
late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Mostly light snow is
expected with minimal to no accumulations. However, as the shortwave
trough pushes east and ice is lost in the mid to upper levels, a
short period of light freezing drizzle will be possible late
Thursday afternoon/early evening over north-central Wisconsin.
Further south and west, some flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, but the better precipitation chances will remain further
north near the better forcing. High temperatures on Thursday will
range from the 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

High pressure builds in Thursday night with clearing overnight. Cold
air advection/clearing will produce overnight lows in the teens
to mid 20s.

Friday will be a mostly sunny but rather chilly as that area of high
pressure drifts overhead. Plan on highs mainly in the 20s
-perhaps a few lower 30s across far northeast IA/southwest WI.

Warm air advection kicks in Friday night into Saturday on the
backside of the high as it drifts into the eastern CONUS. After
lows in the teens/lower 20s Friday night, plan on highs Saturday
well into the 30s, possibly a few lower 40s across far northeast
IA/southwest WI.

Sunday will see a cold front sliding southeast into the area.
Main moisture feed/convergence/saturation with this boundary
appears to stay northeast of the area but will see an increase in
cloud cover. However cannot rule out a stray sprinkle or two as
the front passes through. Otherwise, warm air advection ahead of
the front before it comes through will push highs into the mid 30s
to mid 40s.

Incoming mid-level trough/vorticity spins up weak surface
cyclogenesis somewhere across MO/IA/IL Sunday night, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region Monday/Monday night. This
brings deformation area snow up into our area with some light
accumulations.

A blast of modified Arctic air advects into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley region Tuesday, settling in for Wednesday. Plan on
highs in the single digits/teens. Overnight lows Tuesday night
look to be in the single digits above and below zero.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this afternoon into
tonight. West-northwest winds around 12 kts will lessen this evening
and turn more southerly overnight. Mid to high clouds spread in late
tonight into Thursday, with some models picking up on some fog
development mainly out west where a snowpack is present. However,
with no indications of low clouds or even any fog present
upstream, confidence is rather low on this occurring. Added a MVFR
group for a few hours at KRST overnight, but with this being
rather conditional, it will need to be monitored or refined for
later issuances. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely Thursday
morning into the early afternoon hours, with winds generally below
10 kts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

An area of high pressure will drift across the region tonight.
Some concern about fog formation underneath the high, especially
over areas where there has been melting snow the past few days.
There should also be an increase in mid level clouds overnight as
a short wave trough scoots across southern Canada toward the Great
Lakes. Forecast soundings from both the 04.12Z RAP and 04.18Z NAM
show winds of 10+ knots just above the surface at the top of the
shallow saturated layer. This along with the increasing mid level
clouds could preclude the fog formation, but for continuity, will
continue to show some MVFR conditions with a little bit of fog for
KRST. The short wave trough will push a cold front across the area
Thursday afternoon. Short range guidance is suggesting the MVFR
ceilings will develop behind the cold front and spread across the
area. However, looking at forecast soundings again, there is no
signal for these clouds and will keep both sites VFR for now.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 638 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Models suggest the potential for slantwise convection exists with
the wave grazing our northeast counties late tonight into tomorrow
morning, especially in the RAP which simulates large areas of
negative EPV. Another factor that could locally enhance snowfall
is low level northerly flow generating orographic lift in the
Turtle Mountains area. Because these ingredients are present,
decided to raise potential snow amounts to near one inch in the
Turtle Mountains. However, the probability of occurrence remains
around 30 percent, mainly due to a lack of deep moisture.

Another signal that is emerging in recent model guidance is the
potential for stronger winds along and behind the cold front that
moves south across our area tomorrow morning. Strong pressure
rises and cold air advection favor winds towards the high end of
guidance, but low level lapse rates are not steep, which may
inhibit 20-30 kt low layer winds from being mixed down to the
surface.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Cloud cover will increase this evening with skies becoming
overcast across nearly all of western and central North Dakota
tonight as a surface cold front begins moving southward through
the area. Some patchy fog is possible across central North Dakota
this evening/tonight before the cold front passes. Cold air
advection associated with this front will help temperatures drop
into the mid teens across northern North Dakota tonight with
warmer temperatures in the 20s expected south. An upper-level
wave swings out of southern Canada and into far northern North
Dakota tomorrow morning. Short- term models indicate enough upper
level ascent will present to spark some light snow with this
passing wave. The rest of Thursday should be mostly cloudy and
cool with north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Becoming colder by the end of the weekend, with widespread
snow possible Sunday through Sunday night. Significant snow
amounts are not expected.

Temperatures will warm back up on Friday and Saturday as warm air
advection returns with southwesterly to westerly surface winds
developing. Highs will be warmest across western North Dakota,
mainly in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the 30s can be expected
across central North Dakota, especially where snowpack is still
significant.

Precipitation chances return to the area late Saturday night
through Sunday night, as a series of two upper level shortwaves
and surface cold fronts move through North Dakota. A widespread
swath of snow is expected Sunday through Sunday night, with most
of western and central North Dakota picking up at least an inch by
Monday morning. From a forcing perspective, it appears mid level
lapse rates will be steep enough to support a brief period of
moderate snow where frontogenetical forcing is the strongest. Some
areas could see slightly higher amounts than an inch, possibly 3
to 4 inches. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the
location of the slightly higher amounts as the 12z GFS/EURO
deterministic runs still disagree quite a bit with QPF location.
In addition, the GEFS plumes are still showing lots of ensemble
member spread for the QPF forecast.

Although dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, it will be
very cold. The GFS/EURO both show 850 mb temperatures falling down
to 20 to 25 below zero by Tuesday, with the NBM suggesting highs
around zero degrees north central to the teens southwest. Below
zero temperatures are expected Monday night and Tuesday night
across most of North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

All terminals start this forecast period with VFR conditions. A
cold front will move from north to south across the area late
tonight through Thursday morning. MVFR to near IFR ceilings are
expected with the arrival of the cold front. These lower ceilings
are forecast to linger into Thursday afternoon and then begin
lifting from north to south. The cold front may also bring a
period of gusty north-northwest winds, potentially as strong as 25
kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...Hollan




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 835 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2019

No significant adjustments to the grids at this time. Still looks
like the next system will move across Colorado on Thursday. Should
see an increase in cloudiness from west to east overnight. Spatial
cross-sections show the best upslope will be late Thursday morning
to late afternoon. Weak mid level QG omega over northeastern CO
through 18z then QG descent. Trend from potential rain showers in
15z-18z transitioning to snow showers in the afternoon still looks
reasonable with just light snowfall expected. All this reflected
in the grids so will stay the course.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2019

A Pacific storm system continues to approach Colorado. Based on
the latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery, the trough is slowly
moving east across California. Several lobes of vorticity maxima
are rotating around the main trough. The trough moves almost due
east between now and early Friday, with the trough axis passing
overhead Thursday afternoon. It`s a relatively quick moving system
with some moisture to work with. The system is again a bit slower
getting to Colorado per latest model guidance, so we expect snow
to begin in the mountains until after midnight tonight. The best
synoptic forcing is focused across the southern half of Colorado,
with weaker lift expected across our area. Cold advection at 700
mb should help with the snow showers in the mountains, as it goes
from 0 degC at 5 AM Thursday down to -5 degC by 5 PM. The flow
along the west slope, although upslope, is weak because the core
of the trough passes just to our south. Thus, we are not
anticipating highlights for the mountains and snow rates in
general shouldn`t be higher than light to moderate, and if
moderate only for a little while as the trough axis passes
overhead early Thursday afternoon. Snow totals could reach 6
inches across the most favored location across the Park, Gore, and
Front Range above 9,000 feet. Elsewhere totals should be in the
1-5 inch range.

Across the plains, there is actually uncertainty about the p-type!
Not the most common thing to have to deal with in December.
However, there isn`t really much of a cold front, it`s more of a
wind shift to the north-northeast after 6 AM across the Wyoming
border, reaching Denver metro around 8 AM or so. Temperatures will
already be in the mid to upper 30s by midday, and wet bulb
temperatures should be in 31-35 deg as well. The 700 mb temps
drop to around -5 degC by late afternoon, which should help
transition just about all of the plains over to snow. Late
morning, precipitation chances increase with weak upslope and the
trough axis approaching. It will probably start off as rain
showers until enough cold air (and perhaps a little heavier
precipitation) is advected into our area after 2 PM. It should be
snow after that but amounts will be light and we don`t anticipate
any impacts given temperatures in the low to mid 30s during the
precipitation. Parts of Weld County may not changeover to snow at
all with just enough downslope off the Cheyenne ridge. It should
be noted that the HRRR consistently keeps the precipitation as
liquid across just about all of the plains below 5800 feet
elevation until the very end of the event. We are not agreeing
with the HRRR for this event given wet bulbing and an overly
optimistic warming in the HRRR. Total snow amounts should be an
inch, at most two, and mostly on grassy surfaces.

The trough moves quickly east with strong subsidence in it`s wake,
resulting in a sharp cutoff on the precipitation from west to
east, ending across the I-25 corridor by 6-7 PM, the far eastern
plains by 9 PM, if not sooner.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2019

Thursday evening should see the weak and fast moving upper
disturbance making its way out of the state. Lots of subsidence
will be moving into the state, bringing precipitation to an end,
both in the mountains and out across the plains. Friday and
Saturday will see a strong upper ridge build over the Desert
Southwest, with dry and warmer weather across Colorado. Winds
aloft will decrease over time as the ridge axis moves across the
state. Temperatures will climb to slightly warmer than normal.

As the weekend comes to an end, the upper ridge will give way to
an amplifying upper trough working its way down from the Pacific
Northwest. The ECMWF and GFS both show this upper trough remaining
open as it migrates eastward early next week. The curvature of the
trough and jet level dynamics should produce a period of rising
motions across Colorado from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. This will be the next chance of precipitation across the
forecast area, but once again it looks like it will be a rapidly
moving upper level system. There will be a fair shot of cold air
also coming down with the trough, so we will see if later model
runs show any additional development as the trough approaches. For
now the forecast will be a generally worded chance of snow and
cooler temperatures. The unsettled weather should then last into
Tuesday as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 821 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2019

VFR conditions will continue through 5 am Thursday. A storm
system will impact the metro area terminals after 8 am, with
ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR after 8 AM. Light rain
showers are possible by 11 am. Colder air in the afternoon with a
a changeover to snow or a rain/snow mix by mid afternoon, most
likely after 2 PM.

The impact to the runways should be minimal, as temperatures in
the low to mid 30s should keep them wet throughout the afternoon.
With any snow, ceilings may reach IFR. We expect generally light
snow rates, mainly between 2-5 PM. IFR to MVFR CIGs will continue
into early Friday. Winds from Thursday mid-morning through early
Friday morning should be out of the north, with strongest winds
10-15 kts occurring sometime Thursday afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Cooper




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 559 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Aloft: Animations of WV imagery and RAP tropopause analyses
indicate low-amplitude WNW flow over the Cntrl Plns. That will
remain the case thru tomorrow. The potent low currently over CA
will move inland and rapidly weaken. The remnant trof will still
spread substantial cloud cover over the rgn tomorrow.

Surface: 1020 mb high pres was over the Srn Plns. Wk 1004 mb low
pres was over Srn AB. The high will move E to the Gulf Coast
states tonight while the low weakens and advances into ND. This
low will weaken further tomorrow with its trailing weak cool front
crossing the CWA. 1028 mb high pres will quickly drop out of
Canada into the Nrn Plns Thu aftn and begin building in.

Rest of this afternoon: Partly cldy. Temps a little warmer than
yesterday with highs ranging from upr 40s N to upr 50s S.

Tonight: Clearing. Temps will fall below frzg but still be svrl
degs abv normal. Good radiation conds with nearly calm winds.

Thu: Bcmg mostly cldy. Not as warm as an extensive thick
cirrostratus cloud shield moves over the rgn ahead associated with
a weakening shrtwv trof. Any lgt rain will remain SW-S of the
CWA. This will keep temps down a little bit..but they will still
be a few degs abv normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 112 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Aloft: The past 2 runs of the GFS-FV3/EC/UKMET/CMC cont in very
good agreement on amplification of the longwaves beginning Sun.
WNW flow will cont over NEB/KS Fri...but a deamplifying Wrn USA
ridge will move E and cross the rgn Sat. A deep trof will move
into the NE Pac inducing downstream amplification...forcing a
ridge to build from the W coast up to Yukon...with a trof
temporarily deepening over the Plns Sun-Mon. This trof will then
shift into the Ern USA Tue-Wed and deamplify.

Surface: Fairly strong high pres over the Cntrl Plns Fri will
quickly depart with downslope-warmed return flow Sat-Sun until a
strong cold front slams thru here Mon AM. A reinforcing shot of
cold air will move in Mon night or Tue (the Arctic front). High
pres will follow behind.

Temps: Colder than normal Fri. Warmer than normal Sat-Sun. Back
to colder than normal Mon-Wed...possibly much colder than
normal...but there is mdl disagreement on if the Arctic air
plunges in here full-bore or if we get brushed by its SW edge. The
06Z/12Z GFS runs are much sharper with the upr trof. The 00Z/12Z
EC runs are much broader. That will make all the diff between a
direct discharge of Arctic air or it mostly misses to the N and E
of the rgn. Until this diff is resolved...there is uncertainty on
how cold temps will be Mon-Tue.

Precip: Essentially dry. There is a slight chance that there
could be some flurries or lgt snow shwrs in CAA Mon.

Wind: MOS wind speeds were loaded on Sat and Mon to incrs winds
above NBM. Also boosted gusts a bit abv the algorithm output for
both periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 554 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

VFR conditions are forecast. Wind will turn to the northwest
behind a cold front Thursday afternoon with wind speeds picking up
a bit late in the forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 935 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds return late this afternoon and evening along with the
chance for sprinkles and flurries. High pressure will briefly
build in Thursday before a slight chance of showers arrives
again early Friday near and south of the Ohio River. Drier and
seasonable conditions are expected this weekend until late
Sunday into early next week before the next system arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
850mb temperatures over ILN dropped about 3 degrees C from the
12Z sounding to the 00Z sounding, steepening low level lapse
rates and leading to increases in both cloud cover and wind
gusts this evening. The gusty winds (20-30 knots) should persist
for another couple hours, but the increasing stratocumulus
clouds will stick around for a bit longer, and should actually
continue to increase through at least 06Z. There are definitely
going to be some breaks, as upstream satellite depictions would
suggest, but in general conditions will be more and more cloudy
with northeastward extent through the ILN CWA tonight. It is
interesting that despite the clouds and wind, both the NAM and
RAP are fairly insistent on some significant drops in
temperature tonight -- which does not seem totally realistic.
The HRRR appears fairly close to the previous forecast, which
was left unchanged.

Finally, a couple bands of showers have been moving through the
eastern ILN CWA, with no real impacts expected. These should be
out of the forecast area by 05Z.

Previous discussion >
While abundant sunshine has made an appearance for much of the
day today, an upper level disturbance and an increase in low
level moisture results in another wave of clouds late this
afternoon and evening. Visible satellite imagery already shows
clouds increasing across parts of northwest Ohio. These will
continue to move southward over the next few hours. The upper
level disturbance does enhance vertical motion this evening,
however, dry mid- level air prevents the possibility of
widespread precipitation. Instead, low level lift supports
slight chances for scattered rain/snow showers, primarily across
northeast areas. In fact, looking at forecast soundings, this
forecast remains in agreement with previous forecasts that much
of the hydrometeors may fall as drizzle/flurries as saturation
fails to reach the DGZ zone.

Highs today have approached forecast temps with observations
topping out in the mid to upper 40s (SW) and the upper 30s and
lower 40s (NE). West- northwesterly winds have gusted over 30
mph at times this afternoon with winds expected to remain gusty
into the evening before subsiding after midnight. Low level
clouds persist late this evening, but temperatures are still
expected to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low level clouds linger the longest after sunrise across
northeast areas as dry low level air associated with a building
ridge gradually shifts eastward. Surface high pressure passes to
the south for much of the day, providing partly cloudy skies and
seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Low level
clouds decreasing during the morning but, upper level clouds
are on the increase throughout the day as the next upper level
trough moves into the central plains. Overnight, a cold front
approaches from the northwest with the best chance of
precipitation arriving toward sunrise across the southwest, near
and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will start off with the passage of a cold
front through the Ohio Valley on Friday under northwest flow
aloft. The frontal passage is expected to be accompanied by
limited precipitation chances since the best forcing associated
with two short waves embedded within the northwest flow aloft
will be north and south of the area. However, the best chances
for precipitation across our local area will be near and south
of the Ohio River where the highest PWAT values will be located.


After the frontal passage, high pressure will build in from the
northwest on Friday night/early Saturday morning. With the high
pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley, highs on
Saturday are expected to be in the lower 40s across central
Ohio/Indiana and mid 40s near the Ohio River (below normal)
under mostly clear skies. Fair weather and cool conditions will
prevail Saturday night with lows in the lower 30s across the
area.

By Sunday, the high pressure system responsible for the
tranquil weather on Saturday will be off to the east and
southwesterly flow will move in on the western side of the high.
WAA will aid in temperatures rebounding into the 50s on Sunday
as moisture increases thereby setting the stage for our next
widespread precipitation event.

Precipitation chances start to increase Sunday evening/night in
the WAA advection regime ahead of the next cold front.
Precipitation chances will continue to increase into Monday and
Tuesday as a shortwave diving into the northern Great Plains the
will lead to cyclone development to our west. The shortwave and
cold front associated with the surface cyclone (forcing for
widespread precipitation) will push through the region on
Tuesday, but the exact timing is uncertain at this time. Thus,
the high temperatures on Tuesday have uncertainty since an early
cold frontal passage will lead to cooler highs than currently
forecast. Regardless of the time of day, temperatures will drop
behind the front and rain showers will transition to snow
showers as colder air moves in.

A cold high pressure system will then build in out of Canada
and bring below average temperatures for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are beginning the TAF period this evening, but
stratocumulus clouds are beginning to move into the area from
the north. This is expected to lead to MVFR ceilings at
KCMH/KLCK, with perhaps some temporary MVFR ceilings at
KILN/KDAY. KCVG/KLUK should remain south of the thickest clouds,
with generally VFR conditions expected. Some light precipitation
is also possible in the Columbus area in the next few hours, but
without any additional impact to aviation. While WNW winds
remain somewhat gusty, this should subside by 06Z.

Tomorrow morning, any remaining MVFR clouds should clear east of
Columbus, with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the TAF
period. Very light winds will eventually shift from the west to
the south, as high clouds begin to move into the area tomorrow
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are expected on Friday. MVFR
conditions are possible again Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hatzos




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 528 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

High pressure systems across nwrn Canada and Pacific off the coast
of British Columbia will fuse across the nrn Plains and move through
wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday and Thursday night. The NAM and to a
lesser extent the GFS, SREF and 36 hr run of the RAP suggest the
potential for stratus, areas of fog and patchy freezing drizzle
Thursday night. The short term model blend and the SREF were the
basis for the fog and freezing drizzle forecast Thursday night.

Confidence in the stratus is high, the fog is moderate and the
freezing drizzle low to moderate. The freezing drizzle forecast is
somewhat uncertain as it relies heavily on the NAM model and is
outside the range of the RAP and HRRR models which will support or
contradict the NAM as the event time draws closer.

The temperature forecast tonight through Thursday night uses the
guidance blend plus bias correction. High temperatures Thursday were
marked down across northern Nebraska where snow cover is widespread.
No adjustment was needed across srn Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

 Two strong arctic high pressure systems will come down in
rapid succession from northern Canada. The first arriving Sunday
followed by a second Wednesday. This will likely keep wrn and ncntl
Nebraska below average in temperature and precipitation. The upper
level flow is highly amplified up into Alaska and then south through
wrn Canada. Any energy in the flow appears to be passing south
through the srn Rockies and Midsouth.

It is too early and uncertain exactly what sensible weather, such as
the potential for freezing drizzle, will accompany the cold air
across Nebraska. The coldest air will move mostly through the upper
Midwest. This setup might favor a period of freezing drizzle
somewhere across Nebraska. Today`s model blended forecast is drier
favoring points across the SD and MN for light snow. Sporadic
slight chances of snow are in place across nrn Nebraska Sunday
night through Monday night. The first arctic high will likely
flush most of the moisture out of Nebraska and a dry forecast is
in place Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period with
the exception of the northern Sandhills late Thursday afternoon.
Lower cloud ceilings will move into the area bringing MVFR
conditions. There is also a possibility of some patchy fog
developing across the northern Sandhills tomorrow, but at this
time it looks to be in the evening, outside of the forecast
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

A river flood warning continues for the North Platte river near
Lewellen with the river gage and NDOT cameras suggesting minor
flooding. Warm temperatures this week may cause the ice jam to
break up, perhaps on Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...CDC