Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/03/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

 538 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

Cyclonic flow aloft has been slowly to break down over Illinois
this morning, and with an inversion base around near the 900 to
850mb level, the stratus has been far slower to clear than model
data would suggest leading into today. Still, the flow aloft is
progressive, and westerly flow is developing in the lowest 5000 ft
this afternoon, and that is allowing the western edge of the cloud
deck to begin shifting east. By 4 PM, this should be mostly an
Illinois cloud layer, with clearing to all locations in the 5 pm
to 7 pm window. The HRRR is best handling this trend, though it
may be a bit slow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

The synopsis cloud discussion is the main challenge this evening.
For the overnight, high and mid clouds will spread in, with lows
in the mid to upper 20s expected. Dry conditions are confident, as
the passing short wave will lack deep saturation. South winds will
develop through the night and shift to the west Tuesday. These
winds winds will help combine with partial sun on Tuesday to
bring highs up to the upper 30s north to mid 40s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

Despite a progressive flow aloft through the extended, it appears
our region will lack both significant cold air, and significant
moisture through the entire extended. Though several cold front
should pass through, mainly dry weather is expected until Sunday,
when a short wave is expected to pass through the region at the
base of a broad upper trof. That process should occur with a
surface high pressure ridge in place from the Carolinas through
west Texas, shutting off any deep moisture return. That fact is
enough for me to think models are over-forecasting the QPF for
Sunday, which are on the order of 0.01 to 0.10 anyhow. In any
case, there is little reason to go dry in the cold season for a
short wave in the extended. The main point here is that there is
now big storms, no significant snows, and no arctic intrusions
forecast this upcoming 7 days. Highs in the 40s will pair with
lows in the 20s to lower 30s through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

The MVFR cloud deck has moved east of TAF locations and VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds
will develop tonight then switch to west late tomorrow morning as
a weak trough moves through the area.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Wolf