Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/03/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
538 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Cyclonic flow aloft has been slowly to break down over Illinois this morning, and with an inversion base around near the 900 to 850mb level, the stratus has been far slower to clear than model data would suggest leading into today. Still, the flow aloft is progressive, and westerly flow is developing in the lowest 5000 ft this afternoon, and that is allowing the western edge of the cloud deck to begin shifting east. By 4 PM, this should be mostly an Illinois cloud layer, with clearing to all locations in the 5 pm to 7 pm window. The HRRR is best handling this trend, though it may be a bit slow. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 The synopsis cloud discussion is the main challenge this evening. For the overnight, high and mid clouds will spread in, with lows in the mid to upper 20s expected. Dry conditions are confident, as the passing short wave will lack deep saturation. South winds will develop through the night and shift to the west Tuesday. These winds winds will help combine with partial sun on Tuesday to bring highs up to the upper 30s north to mid 40s south. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 141 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Despite a progressive flow aloft through the extended, it appears our region will lack both significant cold air, and significant moisture through the entire extended. Though several cold front should pass through, mainly dry weather is expected until Sunday, when a short wave is expected to pass through the region at the base of a broad upper trof. That process should occur with a surface high pressure ridge in place from the Carolinas through west Texas, shutting off any deep moisture return. That fact is enough for me to think models are over-forecasting the QPF for Sunday, which are on the order of 0.01 to 0.10 anyhow. In any case, there is little reason to go dry in the cold season for a short wave in the extended. The main point here is that there is now big storms, no significant snows, and no arctic intrusions forecast this upcoming 7 days. Highs in the 40s will pair with lows in the 20s to lower 30s through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 534 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 The MVFR cloud deck has moved east of TAF locations and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will develop tonight then switch to west late tomorrow morning as a weak trough moves through the area. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ervin SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Wolf