Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/28/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
729 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
Updated forecast for mainly areas along and east of the Laramie
Range tonight with patchy dense fog already beginning to form this
evening, occasional snow flurries, and drifting snow across area
roadways. A combination of these elements along with locally dense
fog is resulting in increasing travel difficulities along the
I-80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne this evening. Expect the
south to southeast wind to gradually diminish through midnight,
which should result in improving conditions along the I-80.
Further east, low clouds and some patchy fog are expected
along/east of I-25 until early Thanksgiving morning, but impacts
should be minimal to low, mainly due to drifting snow across area
roadways. Quiet weather conditions for the rest of the region
tonight and early Thursday well ahead of the next storm system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
Upper level ridging remains temporarily in place over the CWA
between the 990 mb low from our early week snowstorm now situated
over the Great Lakes and the 994 mb low over Central OR per recent
RAP analysis. The later will setup for more unsettled weather across
the Northern Great Plains headed into the weekend. Recent GOES WV
imagery already shows a large cloud shield associated with the upper
level low off to the west which will increase cloud cover over SE WY
and the NE Panhandle this evening. Despite upper level cloud cover,
temperatures will still drop into the teens overnight. Patchy fog
may develop after 11z over extreme SE WY and the southern NE
Panhandle. Forecast NAM soundings are moistening the low-levels with
a sharp inversion aloft. The limiting factor here may be forecast
winds of 10-15 kts in this area.
Chances for precipitation remain low over the next 36 hours with
temperatures remaining below average for this time of the year.
Thursday`s high temperatures look to remain in the 30s across the
CWA with remaining snow cover limiting heating potential. The
longwave trough will continue to dig along the Pacific Coast while a
shortwave disturbance currently located off the coast of Baja
California will eject out in front during the day Thursday, but
most of the precipitation will remain east of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
The focus for the long term remains on evolution of the Pacific
long wave trough through the weekend. There is currently high
confidence on the potential for impacts with this system. Thus, a
number of products were updated this forecast cycle, ahead of
typical scheduling, to message emerging threats.
Thursday night and early Friday morning, the Pacific trough is
expected to have closed off and taken on a slight negative tilt
over the California coast. Southwesterly 500 and 700 mb flow ahead
of this system signal the merger of the subtropical jet with the
main branch of mid latitude flow. On the backside of the longwave
trough, a very powerful mid level jet on the order of 100 kts is
expected to take shape and move through the base of the trough.
This will rapidly intensify the system by mid morning Friday. A
strong negative tilt is expected to develop as the jet and a
subtropical branch shortwave rocket north out of New Mexico and
cross eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska. At the
surface, rapid lee side cyclogenesis is expected, supported by 12
hour height falls on the order of 200-240 DAM and very strong
differential vorticity advection. Most models show the low sub 990
mb by 12z Saturday.
The threats will be two fold with this system. Firstly, with
access to gulf moisture near 3 to 4 g/kg initially, the system
should be able to produce significant precipitation as it moves
through. The best chance for heavy snow will be to the north
across the panhandle and eastern Wyoming. Amounts are uncertain as
small changes in the low could potential bring big differences.
However, as it stand snow a widespread 5 to 10 inches looks
probable. Enhancement on the pine ridge and any subtle changes in
the strong dynamics could change those totals by a lot. The winds
will be blowing this around and Blizzard wording was included to
address the likelihood of low vis and drifting snow.
The second and potentially more impactful aspect will be the wind.
The rapid deepening and the presence of extremely strong mid
level jet energy will mean widespread high winds for the area.
Very strong surface pressure gradients are expected with the
rapidly deepening low. This will drive extremely strong winds
across much of the area. WRKHGT WRKBRX and WRKCYS are impressive
to say the least, with some height gradients on the order of 140
meters. 650 mb winds on the GFS are 60 to 70 kts with some higher
spikes. the combo of jet winds and strong downward omega are
extremely supportive of strong surface gusts. Model soundings are
showing some extreme mixing potential and mountain wave activity.
The gap areas of the Summit and Bordeaux are extremely likely to
see strong surface gusts. It is not out of the question we see an
80+ mph gust given the dynamics at play. But widespread 65 mph
gusts spilling onto the plains are likely. The snow across the
areas will also mean that blowing snow will be widespread and
visibility impacts could easily come into play. This is a very
dynamic system and will need to be watched closely with the extra
holiday travelers.
Next week zonal flow is expected with some chances of off and on
precip and cool temperatures. model differences are not helpful in
diagnosing anything significant at this time but the general
pattern matches with the CPC trend through dy 8 to 14.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Wind gusts to 35 knots
at Laramie until 03Z. IFR at Cheyenne until 14Z, then MVFR until
16Z, then IFR.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR at Chadron until 04Z, then MVFR. VFR at
Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney until 04Z, then MVFR until 15Z or
16Z, then IFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots at Chadron and Scottsbluff
until 04Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots at Alliance after 13Z. Wind
gusts to 28 knots at Sidney until 04Z, then to 31 knots after 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019
Widespread snowpack from our recent snow storm will keep fire
weather concerns minimal over the next several days. Another
strong low pressure system is expected to track into the area
Friday into Saturday for widespread very strong winds for most
areas. Widespread wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely across
the area Friday night into Saturday. This low will also bring
increasing chances for more significant snow amounts...so fire
weather concerns will be minimal into the first part of next week
as well.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for WYZ101-102.
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for WYZ107-108-115-117>119.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for WYZ103>106-110-116.
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for NEZ002-003-095-096.
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for NEZ019>021-054-055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
830 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019
...DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...
No major forecast changes with dry cold front on track to push
across the forecast area tonight. A few sprinkles are possible
over the next few hours across our Suwannee River Valley zones,
otherwise dry conditions will prevail with low stratus clouds
expected to expand inland from Apalachee Bay after midnight just
ahead of the front under WSW winds. These low clouds are expected
to drift eastward toward the St. Johns River basin with a gradual
shift southward through sunrise as drier NNW flow trails the
frontal passage.
Temperatures were on track to fall to above climo minimums ranging
from the upper 40s across inland SE GA trailing the front to the
upper 50s across our SE FL zones where cloud cover will linger and
insulate a bit longer.
&&
.MARINE...
SW winds 10-15 kts this evening will shift NNW after midnight as
dry surface front pushes slides south over the waters. Speeds
will increase over the outer waters to 15-20 kts after midnight
through Thu midday where Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
will continue to be headlined. Combined seas of 2 ft or less this
evening will build up to 4 ft over the outer waters Thu.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [648 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Thursday]...Cold front with
accompanying showers will continue to weaken as it enters se Ga
this evening. Mid-upper trough expected to remain well to the
north so only expect a few dying showers over interior se Ga this
afternoon. HRRR and SREF models indicate stratus and fog moving
into interior ne Fl off the Gulf late tonight ahead of the frontal
boundary. The front will be to our south by early Thursday
morning with clearing skies and high pressure building in from
the nw. Slightly cooler temperatures with lower humidity is expected
on Thursday.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday night through Saturday night]...Deep layer
ridge will move over the area through the period. This will
maintain a dry weather pattern along with light winds and
temperatures close to average.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...Another cold front will
bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday as
weak elevated instability develops. The front will push across the
area Sunday night bringing an end to the rain. Windy and cooler
conditions for Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between a
deepening surface low near the ne U.S. coast and high pressure to
the west. Dry weather with below normal temperatures will prevail
Monday through Wednesday.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 06z as clouds increase
from the west ahead of approaching cold front. WSW winds generally
7 kts or less will continue ahead of the front this evening.
Elevated confidence of low stratus moving inland from the Gulf of
Mexico after 05z bringing restrictions of IFR to LIFR at GNV
first then low stratus spreading farther ENE toward VQQ, JAX, CRG
and SGJ through 08z. Prevailing VFR expected at SSI tonight.
Winds transition to WNW after 06z through sunrise trailing
frontal passage. Low stratus and fog will shift southward through
daybreak with prevailing VFR conditions expected 13-14z under dry
northerly winds < 10 kts Thu.
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will advect into the area late tonight
and Thursday behind a cold front. RH values will lower to critical
values by the afternoon hours with readings in the upper 20s/lower
30s. No headlines needed as winds speeds will be 10 mph or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 48 69 44 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
SSI 53 68 49 64 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 72 49 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
SGJ 59 72 53 69 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 75 47 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 77 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
944 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 925 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
I`ve made a few changes to the forecast for tonight and Thursday.
The main change with tonight was dealing with clouds the remainder
of this evening and into the overnight hours. The large stratus
field over Iowa has been pushing southeastward this evening
within the cyclonic low level flow. Based on current trends and
low level RH progs from the RAP, this stratus will impact northern
portions of the CWA through 07-08z and then shunt more eastward.
Meanwhile high clouds will be increasing as the upper level flow
gradually backs as the short wave ridge aloft progresses eastward.
I have also trimmed back pops/slowed the onset of precipitation on
Thursday morning. The trends in guidance this evening from the RAP
runs and resultant HRRRs, and even a quick look at the new 00z NAM
is showing little if any measurable precipitation in the CWA
prior to noon. This appears to be a reflection of the dry low
levels and also the slower evolution of isentropic lift and
attendant increase in moisture. These dry low levels will promote
some cooling once precipitation does begin and thus the previous
thinking of some brief light sleet at the onset still looks
possible, especially with precipitation in the morning across the
southern CWA. Otherwise warming through the lower trop would
support all rain. If all the precipitation holds off until
afternoon as suggested by the RAP then any sleet looks quite
unlikely. No impacts are expected even if we should get some sleet
give the light intensity and short duration.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Main focus thru this period will be precip chances as well as severe
chances thru the weekend.
Period begins with a ridge across the region. The surface ridge
builds to the east during the day Fri as SW flow deepens across the
region. The SW flow will advect moisture into the region. The very
strong WAA across the area will help temps slowly climb on Fri
despite the ample cloud cover. This WAA will keep all precip as
liquid through this period.
Model solns, including ensembles, remain in good agreement with the
strength and location of the upper low thru Sat. The location hasn`t
changed much from yesterday either. At the surface however, small
differences exist. That said, model solns are in good agreement that
the CWA remains within the warm sector, ensuring precip remains all
RA. These differences in the surface low location and evolution lead
to some uncertainty in a possible severe threat for Sat. The overall
theme is still a conditional threat for the southern half to, more
likely third, of the CWA. Models suggest that the system will
occlude on Sat, limiting the area and time of the CWA within the
true warm sector. Still, will need to monitor this system with
updates.
As the system exits the area on Sun, will need to monitor trends for
another gusty wind event. Luckily, this system does not support
winds similar to this morning. However, the potential for advisory
level gusts across at least the northern portions of the CWA is
possible.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
The residual diurnal cu continues to dissipate across the region
with loss of heating. Will have to keep an eye on the area of MVFR
stratus across IA to see if it may try to encroach upon KUIN later
this evening. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected tonight
with increasing high clouds ahead of the next system. Northwest
surface winds have already begun to diminish as the pressure
gradient relaxes and this trend will continue this evening as
well.
Clouds will thicken/increase across the region on Thursday. I
think the lions share of the clouds will remain VFR, with the
possibility of MVFR flight conditions at KCOU late in the
afternoon. We are expecting some light precipitation tomorrow and
present thinking is the majority may not really get going until
the afternoon and largely be centered across southern MO and
southern IL. If this timing is correct then the precipitation
should be just rain with KCOU and the St. Louis terminals
(including KSTL) on the northern edge.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions this evening in light rain will deteriorate
to MVFR/IFR tonight through Thursday morning across the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 15 mph.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Current water vapor loop shows a closed low off the Baja coast
with a plume of subtropical moisture streaming out ahead of this
feature into N Mexico. This moisture will be the focus for
increasing precipitation chances beginning this afternoon. All
models show this closed low transitioning to an open wave and
translating northeastward into NM/TX over the nxt 24-36 hrs.
During this time frame, precipitation should initially begin as
rain until efficient wet bulb cooling occurs from aloft. An early
transition to freezing rain will be likely across the Guadalupe &
Delaware Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico per 12Z
NAM/GFS bufr soundings. High res-model guidance including 3km NAM
and HRRR depict ice accumulations that will meet or exceed Winter
Storm Warning thresholds across the mountains. Therefore, we will
go ahead and upgrade the current Advisory to a Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains and maintain the Advisory across the
southeastern New Mexico Plains. Strong sustained gap winds up to
45 mph will be possible through Guadalupe Pass which will add an
additional travel hazard. Any travel along the HWY 62/180 corridor
is not recommended tonight. Temperatures are expected to increase
above freezing early tomorrow morning between 12-15Z which will
put an end to the frozen precipitation. Rain will begin to taper
off across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos from west to
east throughout the day and temperatures will top out in the mid
40s to lower 60s while you are gobbling down turkey.
A secondary trof will begin to deepen over the Western CONUS on
Friday and promote southwesterly flow aloft across West TX. This
will elevate temperatures well above normal region-wide with highs
in the mid 70s anticipated. Winds will also increase across the
western areas. After a warm and windy day on Friday, a dry Pacific
front will pass through the area on Saturday which will cool
temperatures down to near normal. Cool and dry conditions will
last into early next week before another storm system arrives mid
week.
-Salerno
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 36 48 47 73 / 90 70 30 30
Carlsbad 33 48 41 69 / 90 50 20 10
Dryden 46 58 50 75 / 40 20 20 10
Fort Stockton 40 61 51 78 / 70 40 20 10
Guadalupe Pass 29 49 45 63 / 90 70 20 10
Hobbs 31 44 41 70 / 90 40 20 10
Marfa 37 61 42 73 / 80 30 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 36 50 48 72 / 80 60 20 20
Odessa 36 50 47 72 / 80 50 20 20
Wink 37 54 48 77 / 80 40 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for Central Lea
County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
&&
$$
03/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
432 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 404 PM EST WED NOV 27 2019
RAP analysis this afternoon shows a 993mb low across Northern Lower
that should continue to move ENE rather quickly this evening,
reaching the Atlantic Ocean by Thanksgiving morning. The Great Lakes
certainly held down snow totals today, as SLRs were in the single
digits. Away from the Great Lakes, snow remains wet and heavy with
SLRs coming in a little lower than forecast. The combination of this
wet and heavy snow may have led to the snow compressing quicker than
normal as some BLSN continues as well.
Expect some BLSN conditions going into this evening as the winds
remain elevated before the pressure gradient relaxes. As synoptic
forces moves out over the next few hours, SN will gradually become
lake-effect SHSN along the Northern wind lake-effect snow belts.
Model 850mb temps suggest temps will continue to cool off over the
next few hours, before beginning to warm back up after 06Z. Expecting
-SHSN to begin to decrease around this time as model soundings
indicate a broad area of subsidence will cut off moisture aloft
leaving perhaps a few flurries.
Despite a area of broad subsidence, models suggest low-level moisture to
remain keeping sub-900mb relatively saturated. This may lead to some
lingering flurries on Thanksgiving morning...though any widespread,
accumulating snow will be finished. As a ridge of high pressure
begins to take hold north of Lake Superior tomorrow, model soundings
indicate some clearing is possible across eastern UP, but expecting
generally cloudy conditions across much of western and central UP.
High temperatures should remain near 30 degrees across the entire
CWA, except across Menominee county and along Lake Michigan, which
may climb into the mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EST WED NOV 27 2019
...Next complex winter storm on the horizon...
Tomorrow night through Friday:
High pressure across northern Ontario for this time frame will
keep much of the U.P. dry, with perhaps a few showers (likely
snow) starting to creep toward the WI border by later in the day
on Friday. In other words, other than cloudy skies, expect
generally benign conditions. Lows will range from the upper teens
to mid 20s, and highs will top out in the 30s, struggling to get
above the freezing mark for many within the interior sections.
Friday night through Sunday night:
Although the main event will probably hold off until Saturday,
precip chances will start increasing from southwest to northeast
overnight Friday into early Saturday. These initial showers will
be associated with height falls in the region out ahead of the
responsible/parent low, still projected to be centered way back
over the Central Plains at this point. Vort max/subtle shortwave
riding out ahead on the periphery of the main trough over the
Rockies will aid in providing just enough lift for said showers,
along with ample moisture starting to advect into the Upper Great
Lakes simultaneously. Decent moisture stream feeding in from the
GoMex meeting with preexisting moisture already pulled in from
the Pacific/Bay of California in the Central Plains will be
setting the stage for yet another higher-end QPF event. With all
of that said, there are two questions that then remain:
1. Where will the swath of highest QPF setup in the region? Will
it make another direct path right over the heart of the U.P., or
remain just south of the forecast area, as the Canadian is
attempting to suggest?
2. What will the thermal profile look like? How much mixed precip
will occur, as the GFS is suggesting with WAA occurring aloft?
For the first question, there has been some run-to-run consistency
in decent QPF amounts making their way well into the U.P., despite
the Canadian solution. The bulk of the highest QPF looks to hold
off entering into the area until Saturday night, so still plenty
of time to nail down this forecast a little tighter in future
forecasts, but am leaning toward agreeing with the GFS/ECMWF in
anticipating this next system to be another higher QPF-maker.
As for the second question, have a bit more uncertainty into this.
The low has been fairly consistent in it`s track of entering into
and marching across the Lower Great Lakes region, leaving Upper
Michigan on the cooler side of the low throughout the event.
However, some WAA occurring on the front end well before the low`s
approach could easily allow for mixed precip to occur, primarily a
rain/snow mix, with some light freezing rain not entirely out of
the question. Again though, still enough time to refine these
details as the period approaches.
Therefore, here`s the bottom line: regardless of these finer
details, folks in and/or traveling to/from the U.P. should expect
another highly impactful storm system this weekend, likely
disrupting travel for the holiday weekend. Regardless of the
precip type, impacts will be felt, especially as any additional
wetter snow falls on top of the existing snow pack created today.
Moderate to heavy, wet snow is not out of the question, with rain
initially potentially creating a layer of ice once again
underneath this next round of snow. Stay tuned, but more
importantly, prepare accordingly in spite of lingering
uncertainties.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near normal for this time of
year, in the 30s, and lows each night in the teens and 20s.
Monday onward:
As the low traverses off toward the Mid-Atlantic, the precip/snow
will go with it. Dry/benign conditions look to dominate for the
start of the work week, with some PoPs reappearing by the middle
of next week as a weak clipper system looks to pass through. Near
normal temps will continue through this time period, with the
coldest night of the entire forecast period looking to occur
Monday night (widespread teens).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM EST WED NOV 27 2019
Heavy and blowing snow continues into the afternoon before tapering
off this evening. VLIFR vsbys will continue as well before tapering
off this evening as winds and snow intensity comes down as the an
area of low pressure continues off to the northeast. IFR cigs at all
sites will continue with LIFR at times. Expect improvement to MVFR
cigs and IFR vsbys by tomorrow morning as high pressure moves in
behind the low pressure system tonight.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 404 PM EST WED NOV 27 2019
Storm-force winds across Lake Superior will continue to relax from
west to east through Gale conditions before falling below 20 knots
by Thanksgiving morning. Winds should remain below 20 knots through
Saturday morning before increasing from east up to 35 knots. As a
low pressure system moves across the Northern Plains Saturday
evening into Sunday, there remains a chance that prevailing gales
from the east to northeast are possible. This low pressure system
will move out by Monday morning as winds relax below 25 knots
through the rest of the forecast period. Some models indicate
another trough moving across Lake Superior during the middle next
week, which may bring an increase in winds up to 30 knots.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
MIZ002-009>011-013-014-084.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ003>007-085.
Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Thursday
for MIZ001>003-009.
Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001.
Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for MIZ005-006.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ007.
Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MIZ012.
Lake Superior...
Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Thursday for LSZ249>251-266-267.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LSZ243>248-264-265.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
LSZ240>242-263.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...JAW
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through tonight. Deepening low pressure will
move off the New England coast on Thursday. High pressure
builds into the region Friday and Saturday. Another area of low
pressure impacts the area for the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week before high pressure briefly returns in
its wake.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will be moving through the Tri- State area over
the next few hours. Winds will increase from the west with its
passage and become more gusty. Gusts 30-40 mph anticipated
overnight. There still could be a shower or two with enough
moisture and lift, but overall coverage should be low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, W/NW winds will turn toward the NW as the day
progresses. Speeds increase and frequent gusts could exceed 40
mph. After collaboration with surrounding offices, will not post
a wind advisory attm as it still seems to be a marginal event.
While cannot rule out greater than 30 mph sustained winds in
spots, or a 50 mph gust somewhere, feel that these conditions
will be more isolated in location and more occasional in
frequency. Some forecast profiles do show around 50 kt at the
top of the boundary layer, but only a percentage of this will
mix down. In addition, HRRR ensemble 50th percentile wind gusts
show gusts of 35 to 45 mph (taking this to be prevailing) and
max winds of 45 to 50 (peak or isolated gusts). Regardless, will
continue to monitor.
Temperatures during the day will warm through the 40s, possibly
reaching or exceeding 50 in a few spots under partly sunny
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With high pressure in control and upper ridging building across the
area, plenty of sunshine is expected on both Friday and Saturday
before clouds gradually increase Saturday evening ahead of a
developing area of low pressure across the northern plains.
This low will slowly approach the area Saturday night as the upper
ridge begins to break down. As the parent low crosses the Great
Lakes during the day on Sunday, energy transfers to the coast, with
a secondary low developing along the Mid Atlantic coast before
passing over or just east of Montauk Point Monday morning. Compared
to 24 hours ago, models are noticeably slower with the onset of
precipitation on Sunday, which has significant implications for the
precipitation type forecast. Other than the possibility of a brief
period of snow right as precipitation begins, the later start time
will result in warmer temperatures, allowing the vast majority of
the precipitation to fall as rain. The primary exception to this is
across Orange County, where enough cold air may remain trapped for a
more prolonged period of snow or a rain/snow mix. Given the
significant model changes over the past day, uncertainty continues
in terms of the exact timing and track of the system and the
resulting precipitation types.
The steadiest precipitation comes to an end Monday morning as the
low pushes east. While precipitation will remain plain rain across
the coastal plain, a transition to snow or a rain/snow mix is
possible Sunday night into early Monday morning across much of the
Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut as the
steadiest precipitation ends. Showers then linger across the area
into Monday night under the upper low. With a cold pool aloft, some
of these showers may fall as snow or a rain/snow mix, especially
Monday evening into Monday night. While any snow showers will
primarily be confined to the interior, snow showers are possible
even at the coast if enough moisture lingers into the overnight
hours.
Any remaining showers then come to an end Tuesday morning as the low
moves farther out to sea and high pressure briefly builds across the
area. A shortwave then approaches the region on Wednesday. With the
best dynamics passing south of the area, expect primarily an
increase in clouds with this feature at this time.
Highs will generally remain in the 40s through the long term period,
several degrees below normal for late November into early
December.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves through most terminals by midnight. High
pressure then builds in through Thursday.
VFR with only a low chance of additional showers tonight.
Winds increase tonight as they veer to the west behind the
front. Gusts incrsaing to 25-35 kt by midnight. LLWS for some
terminals mainly before 06z.
For Thursday, VFR with winds veering NW to NNW and gusting up to
around 35 kt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday...VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt in the evening.
.Friday...VFR with NW gusts 15-20kt.
.Saturday...VFR.
.Sunday...MVFR with possible rain showers.
.Monday...MVFR with NW gusts 15-20kt & possible rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front moves across the waters this evening, and winds
shift to the W/NW and increase further. Gales are likely tonight
and through the day Thursday as low pressure deepens over the
Gulf of Maine. Winds diminish Thursday night, with winds coming
down below gale force around midnight or prior.
Seas increase tonight, building to 5 to 11 ft over the ocean
waters, and 3 to 6 ft across the eastern sound. Waves diminish
Thursday, with the eastern sound coming down below 5 ft by early
Thursday night, while the ocean waters are expected to remain
above 5 ft through Thursday night.
Marginal SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters through the
day on Friday with gusts to around 25 kt and seas around 5 feet,
especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Winds and seas then fall below
SCA criteria everywhere during the day on Saturday before increasing
again Sunday into Monday as the next low pressure system impacts the
waters. Wind gusts could approach gale force for a period Sunday
night into the day on Monday on the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight.
Precipitation amounts Sunday into Monday could approach one inch,
but given the long duration of the precipitation, no hydrologic
impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...FEB/JP
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JP
EQUIPMENT...