Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/26/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 335 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 The main focus on the short term forecast is with the period beyond midnight and through late day Tuesday. Weak easterly upslope flow will develop tonight ahead of a fast approaching storm from the west. The overall trend ahead of this system will bring short lived warm advection across south central Kansas on Tuesday as a cold front quickly moves across the area in the morning, where the heavy precipitation is forecast across far northwest and north central kansas. HIgh uncertainty exists with respect to any snow accumulation, but if snow does accumulate with any appreciable amount (in excess of an inch) - locations from around Scott State lake to Ellis area the most likely areas with amounts as much as a half inch southward to say garden city. A winter weather advisory will be hoisted to reflect the area with best potential for accumulation, and therefore best chance for blowing snow and travel impacts. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 335 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 A second, perhaps more significant storm at least precipitation-wise will begin to impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday. There a re already significant differences between models , however the potential for multiple rounds of rain toward the weekend is possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Easterly winds will gradually increase overnight from 10 knots or less at 00z Tuesday to around 15 knots by 12z Tuesday. This easterly upslope flow will draw more humid area into southwest Kansas which will result in areas of low stratus ( at or below 1500ft AGL) after 10z Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will then cross southwest Kansas during the day on Tuesday. A brief period of improving ceilings at Dodge City and Liberal early in the afternoon but IFR or low MVFR ceilings will linger through the day at Garden City and Hays. In addition to the low clouds there will be a chance for light rain or light snow Tuesday afternoon in the Garden City and Hays areas. Snow accumulations in these areas between 18z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday are expected to be one inch or less. Very windy conditions will develop behind this cold front that will be crossing southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon. As the north winds develop behind the cold front the winds will increase to 25 to 30 knots with gusts around 45 knots. In the Liberal area strong west winds prior to the frontal passage can also be expected. The chance for snow combined with the strong northwest winds in the Garden City and Hays area may produce some reduced visibilities from blowing snow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 Strong winds and dry fuels will contribute to significant fire weather risk on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are likely to touch high wind criteria at times with potential for 40 mph sustained as well as as an occasional gust to 60 mph, through even early evening along the Oklahoma line. It is very questionable, and probably unlikely red flag criteria is met as the HRRR model has been showing too rapid of a decrease in RH behind the front - although a couple of hours of relative humidity around 15 percent is possible Tuesday afternoon. Limited fire weather conditions are expected the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 48 21 42 / 10 40 20 0 GCK 31 44 16 42 / 10 60 10 0 EHA 30 47 18 43 / 0 10 0 0 LBL 32 51 17 43 / 0 10 0 0 HYS 30 38 20 38 / 10 60 40 0 P28 35 57 25 47 / 10 0 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from noon to 9 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ074>078- 080-084>090. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>045. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
822 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 We`re 24 hours from the mid point of what over this potent storm will bring us. With that said, 00z guidance suggests the primary convective event will be taking place between 6 PM and 2 AM tomorrow. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest this is a shallow, but slightly elevated supercell threat, while the NAM is saying most of the activity is in Illinois, and dominated by weaker updrafts. The Namnest has one round of strong storms, with rotating updrafts, moving over west central Illinois around 9 PM. Needless to say, this fast paced strongly forced storm will bring storms through the region, and the buoyancy of the boundary layer will either allow or prevent rotating updrafts from reaching the surface. Storm motion may be over 60 mph from southwest to northeast! These will mostly after dark and not easily diagnosed visually by spotters. ERVIN && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 18Z surface data has low pressure over the arrowhead of Minnesota. A cold front ran southeast from the low across eastern Wisconsin and then into southwest Missouri. Dew points were in the 30s and 40s ahead of the front with 20s behind the front in the Plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 A significant storm system will impact the area. High winds look to be the primary impact. However new information now suggests the possibility of fast moving isolated severe storms Tuesday night. A high wind watch will be issued for the entire area from 3 AM to 6 PM Wednesday. Late this afternoon through Tuesday Assessment...high confidence Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through mid-morning Tuesday. Starting mid to late morning on Tuesday and continuing into the afternoon light rain will develop and/or move into the area from south to north. Areal coverage of rain will be the greatest by mid to late afternoon. Tuesday night and Wednesday Assessment...high confidence on high winds developing. Low to medium confidence on severe potential Tuesday night. Forcing increases significantly Tuesday night. As winds aloft reach a maximum during the evening a strong impulse will move through in the flow aloft. This impulse will likely develop a broken line of shallow convection that will be moving at 60 mph. Given the difference in wind speeds at the surface and aloft, and, an unstable atmosphere, isolated severe storms are possible. The primary risk looks to be damaging winds. However an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The main severe risk area generally looks to be south of a Sterling, IL to Kirksville, MO line. Precipitation Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning looks to be all rain with perhaps a rain/snow mix north and west of a Manchester, IA to Belle Plaine, IA line around sunrise Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon will be dry and very windy. In the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday very strong winds will begin moving into the southern areas and spread northward during the morning on Wednesday. Sustained winds Wednesday look to be 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph likely. It is very possible that some wind gusts may approach or exceed 60 mph in spots. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Key Messages: 1. Light snow or a rain/snow mix remains possible Thanksgiving PM - early Friday AM. Confidence is low, but it continues to bear watching for the potential of some low travel impacts, especially along and north of I-80. 2. Active weather continues with another storm system slated for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which could potentially impact post holiday travelers especially from the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest. Pattern remains active into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as a a large upper trough undergoes amplification over the western CONUS. Warm advection developing well ahead of this trough could bring about precipitation chances on Thanksgiving. This WAA will be occurring atop a drier and shallow colder layer within easterly flow, and therefore could struggle to make inroads into the CWA owing to low confidence. Precipitation type would favor snow with aid of evaporational cooling, possibly mixing with or changing to rain in some areas with continued warm advection. Best chances would appear to be across portions of our south/west, and if this occurs impacts would be very low as temperatures in these areas would likely be above freezing. But, if the precipitation makes further inroads we could see some impacts to travel with slick spots as temperatures likely to be below freezing over the north/east CWA. Friday through Sunday, confidence remains high on a storm system affecting the central CONUS as the main energy within the western trough is ejected. However, there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the track and strength of the storm, thus can`t get specific with details but rather just generalized expectations of rain, snow and wind across the central CONUS. But, just where and how much, etc. TBD. In addition the developing deep snow cover to our north/west over the next couple of days and adjusted thermal gradient could play role in eventual storm track. Those with travel interests throughout the Midwest and Plains this weekend are encouraged to monitor the forecast closely in the coming days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 519 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 VFR weather tonight with light winds from the northeast will give way to windy east winds Tuesday morning around 15 to 20 kts, and by late morning, low clouds and rain should move into the entire area as a warm front lifts northward. Through 00z, this should mainly be a light rain and lower cig event, with some thunder possible between 00z and 09z Wednesday as the main system moves overhead. This will bring high west winds to the area from 9z Wednesday through 00z Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Rainfall of 0.25 inch to around 0.75 inch is forecast from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, with the higher amounts favoring the northern half of the HSA. Forecasts incorporated around 0.8 inch of rain in the Pecatonica and Rock River basins, which results in forecasts of mostly within bank rises above action stage except at Joslin which is shown to just go above minor flood stage (Friday). With the anticipation of fast moving convection these higher amounts could end up being more localized, thus confidence in these forecasts for the Rock and Pecatonica rivers is low at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson- Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren- Washington. IL...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for Bureau-Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson- Warren-Whiteside. MO...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for Clark-Scotland. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...McClure
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Summary. Strong system moving through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring winter storm conditions to northeast Nebraska. Up to 10 inches of snow along with strong winds will create near blizzard conditions there. Snow and wind near and just south of Interstate 80 will likely have travel impacts, thus a winter weather advisory has been issued there. More snow could accumulate on Thanksgiving Day as well. Through Wednesday. Upper trough was diving toward the Four Corners region this afternoon, and will swing through the Rockies and emerge in western Kansas by Noon Tuesday, then lift through southeast Nebraska Tuesday evening before heading into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. Surface low will take a similar track, placing much of Nebraska in area of enhanced precipitation in left quadrant of low position. Highly diffluent flow ahead of system will promote strong low level theta-e advection into the Mid Missouri Valley region on Tuesday, providing plenty of moisture for this already dynamic system. Isentropic upglide is expected to begin tonight in northeast Nebraska and points west as boundary layer temperatures cool to or below freezing. Strong forcing spreading west to east across the state overnight will lead to gradual moistening of initially dry low layers, holding off precipitation until well after 12Z in northeast Nebraska. However when precip begins, it should be heavy at times through the afternoon and evening when strong lift in dendritic temperature layer occurs. HRRR et. al. indicate periods of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall is likely Tuesday evening there. Also, strong pressure gradient and cold advection will translate to wind speeds 25 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. Falling snow combined with strong winds will cause near-blizzard conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening, with blowing snow continuing into Wednesday morning as storm system begins to lift to the northeast. Farther south, warmer temperatures will keep precipitation liquid for most of the afternoon from I-80 south. However, some colder air beginning to wrap south will transition rain to snow just north of Lincoln in the early afternoon, while I-80 from Lincoln to Omaha should remain mostly rain until the sun sets around 6 PM. Also in this area near and south of the Interstate, convective rains are likely in the morning and early afternoon as pockets of moisture and instability rotate north. During the mid to late afternoon, convective elements are still likely where potential dry slot sets up and mid level static stability is low, leading to either pockets of sleet or a change to all snow given dynamic cooling. If this occurs, forecast snow totals along I-80 could be a bit low and greater impacts to the evening commute would be encountered. Otherwise expect a transition to all snow by early evening with a gradual change shifting southeast into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the evening. Snow totals along the Interstate are forecast to be around an inch or two from Omaha east, two to four Omaha to Lincoln, and a bit higher amounts to the west of Lincoln. Snow ends by Wednesday morning with strong winds gradually diminishing. Blowing snow could linger through mid morning, but impacts should be limited after noon. High temps will only rebound into the 30s on Wednesday. Thursday into Friday. Main upper flow pattern will become southwesterly into the Plains ahead of upper low/trough settling along the West Coast. A potent mid level shortwave is expected to eject into the region on Thursday, bringing a good chance for precipitation then. Modest isentropic upglide under weak forcing suggests precipitation will begin before noon Thursday and continue through the afternoon. Forecast soundings point to snow being the main precip type, and Garcia calculations suggest totals around 2 inches are likely over a wide area. A break in the precipitation is likely Thursday night, but another shortwave ejecting through the Plains will bring more precip Friday. This system will favor more rain than snow as 850 temperatures swing well above 0C. However will have to watch for potential freezing rain early give low level cold air in place. Saturday through Monday. Confidence in how the weekend will play out is low. Upper low in the West is expected to move into the Plains, but extent of precipitation with it is in question. Also, ECMWF is slower in moving system to the east, so would linger precipitation longer. Temperatures should be warm enough for rain for Saturday, with cooler air in place Sunday suggesting snow is most likely. Will have to wait a day or so to get more clarity for Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Mid and high level cloudiness will increase, thicken and lower overnight. MVFR ceilings will be possible at KOFK by around 12Z and for KOMA and KLNK by 15Z-18Z. Conditions will deteriorate as snow and a rain/snow mix develop over eastern NE. IFR conditions are likely to develop in the afternoon Tuesday, with LIFR or even lower conditions possible. Light north winds will become northeast later tonight, then increase and become gusty on Tuesday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ045-051>053-065-066-078. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ015-033-034-043-044-050. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ055-056-069. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dergan AVIATION...Miller
range forecast part of this Area Forecast Discussion (see below).
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2019 There is remarkable agreement through the extended period for portions of Colorado, primarily on the Continental Divide. Differences arise on the Plains where there have been some inconsistencies in how wet or dry it will be. Given the high confidence of heavy snowfall over the San Juans during the extended period, have hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for that area. Tuesday night and Wednesday...the upper level storm system over the area will eject northeast into Nebraska during the evening hours with high pressure building in overnight. Any lingering snow across the Plains and Mountains will dissipate by sunset with dry conditions expected to prevail through morning. Strong north winds on the Plains will also ease during the evening hours, and transition southwesterly by morning. Overnight lows will be cold with single digits to lower teens over most of the area. High pressure will transition across the area on Wednesday ahead of the next upper level storm system, which is forecast to slowly move across the region through Saturday. Cool conditions will continue to prevail across the state with mid to upper 30s for most areas. Isolated light snow showers will likely move into the San Juan Range by late afternoon, with dry conditions elsewhere. Wednesday night through Saturday...a large and slow moving upper level storm system will begin to really impact the region Wednesday night. Snow will increase during the evening hours over the San Juan Range, and continue through Saturday. Snow will likely be heavy, with several feet of snow expected. Travel will likely be difficult to impossible, especially over Wolf Creek Pass and La Manga Pass. Strong southwesterly to westerly winds will cause blowing and drifting of snow. Extreme caution is advised with any travel for the Thursday through Saturday period over the San Juan Range. Elsewhere, snow is expected over all the mountains from Thursday into Saturday. Less favorable orographics will produce lower snowfall amounts with a foot or two possible over the Central Mountains, and possibly a foot over the Eastern Mountains. Travel will also be difficult over Monarch Pass and La Veta Pass Thursday and Friday. Blowing and drifting of snow is likely as well. Across the Plains, there remain much uncertainty with precipitation chances. A disturbance lifting north out of the Desert Southwest may clip for the far Eastern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Minor snow accumulation may be possible out near the Kansas border. Both the GFS and ECMWF are more aggressive with a disturbance wrapping up around the main low on Friday which may produce our best possibility of rain and snow across the Plains. There is still a lot of uncertainty at this time over the Plains. One thing there is confidence in are winds. Strong southwesterly winds will blow from Thursday into Friday across the Plains. Widespread winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible with higher gusts. By Saturday, the upper system will reform over Nebraska and lift away from the area. Any precipitation will come to an end by Saturday morning on the Plains. More isolated to scattered snow showers will continue over the Continental Divide, slowly dissipating into the overnight hours. Sunday into the upper low moves east, upper level ridging will move across Colorado. Generally dry and warmer conditions are expected into early next week. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2019 KCOS and KPUB... VFR until mid to late evening. Snow will develop at KCOS prior to midnight with snow continuing into the morning hours. Snow will be heaviest prior to sunrise and last into the mid to late morning hours. 3-4" of accumulating snow is anticipated. Winds will pick up from the north prior to sunrise and last through the day. Conditions will gradually improve during the afternoon time period. For KPUB, dont expect much in the way of accumulating snow, but an intense snow band could move across the region during the morning hours producing a quick inch or two of snow. It will get windy from the NNW after sunrise. Conditions will improve by late morning. KALS... VFR expected for the most part, some snow showers will be possible around sunrise. Winds will be gusty at times. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ058>061- 063. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Tuesday for COZ095-096. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ099. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Tuesday for COZ073-075. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ068-076. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday afternoon for COZ066>068. Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM MST Tuesday for COZ081-082-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Tuesday for COZ085. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1014 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend the southeastern US ahead of a cold front that will cross our region late Wednesday and early Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1010 PM Monday... Quasi-zonal/low amplitude/weakly perturbed flow aloft will persist across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas tonight. One such perturbation over the TN Valley/srn Appalachians vicinity this evening will pass harmlessly through a still-deeply dry, stable, and mostly clear environment across the Carolinas. At the surface, 1015 mb high pressure over the sern US will remain tonight. Calm and clear related to the synoptic pattern described above will favor strong radiational cooling once again tonight, though with continued modification of the air mass that will favor low temperatures a few degrees less chilly than last night - generally lwr to mid 30s. Both the SREF and HRRR indicate an area of (radiation) fog will be possible over the ern Carolinas overnight, including into portions of mainly Cumberland and Sampson Co. The moisture profile evident on the observed MHX sounding is more supportive than that at GSO, where sharply decreasing moisture with height should simply favor dew/frost. As such, areas of fog, possibly dense, will be included in those couple of counties. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Monday... The center of high pressure will help to provide 36 to 48 hours of seasonable and quiet weather across the state, then will shift off the southeastern US seaboard by daybreak Tuesday. This will help to enhance the southerly flow across the Carolinas, establishing a gradual WAA type regime across the region. As a result, afternoon temperature potential will increase by another 3 to 4 degrees across the region, allowing afternoon highs to top out in the 64 to 68 range, even with the presence of an increasing upper-level cloud deck. By Tuesday night, pressure gradients will sharpen across the region as a cold front approaches the western slopes of the Appalachians. This will retain a light to moderate southwest wind and increasing insolation, preventing low temperatures to fall much below the middle 40s. Precipitation chances across the Triad region will begin to rise around sunrise on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 PM Monday... Wednesday: An upper level low will move NE through the Great Lakes and the NE US Wednesday and Wednesday night. Well removed from the accompanying height falls and upper forcing exiting off to the north, a band of pre-frontal WAA showers moving into the southern Appalachians Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, will weaken and gradually dissipate as it advances west to east across the area during the day on Wednesday. Precip amounts with this system will be very light, ranging from a tenth across the far NW Piedmont to trace amounts or less across the coastal plain zones. Breezy SWLY winds will develop ahead of the late day frontal passage, gusting to 25-35 mph, strongest across the western Piedmont. Highs ranging from lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Weak CAA will govern overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s. Thursday through Monday: The flow pattern across the CONUS will undergo some amplification this period with the development of an anomalously deep upper low over the western CONUS. Moderately strong shortwave ridging will build downstream of this feature and will keep the Carolinas dry Thursday through Saturday. Model spread is decreasing with the eastward ejection of the aforementioned strong upper low into the eastern US Sunday and into early Monday, marking a wet end to the holiday weekend. Temperatures will cool to slightly below normal late week and into next weekend, followed by a brief moderation to above-normal on Sunday, before returning to below normal early next week. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 PM Monday... No changes needed with the 00Z TAF package. High confidence that VFR conditions will persist across central NC for the next 24 hours. The possible exception will be isolated to widely patchy fog development across the region early Tuesday morning. Uncertainty on placement remains high, however, it looks most likely in the vicinity of KRWI/KFAY where low-level moisture content will remain high. Any fog formation will burn off mid Tuesday morning with SKC remaining dominant until the end of the period. Outlook: VFR conditions will persist under high pressure through at least Wednesday morning. A cold frontal passage on Wednesday will introduce a slight chance of showers and brief sub-VFR conditions Wednesday primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, a return to VFR expected to end the work-week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...JJM/Green
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