Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/16/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region overnight. Dry and cold conditions will follow in the wake of the front on the weekend. A coastal storm may bring a wintry mix or rain to portions of the region Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 950 PM EST...A cold front continues to move across the region early this evening with the scattered snow showers and flurries shriveling up due to the lack of low-level moisture and the strong inversion on the 00Z KALY soundings. An isolated snow showers or flurry is possible the next couple of hours with a stray dusting, but the activity should cease based on the radar and 3-km HRRR and NAMnest trends. Low-level cold advection will continue with temps falling into the teens with a few lower 20s over the mid Hudson Valley. Some single digits are possible in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Region and southern VT. North to northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph are likely with a few gusts 20-30 mph with the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday, should be mostly sunny and dry, however there could be a narrow band of clouds and perhaps snow showers or flurries in the morning across portions of Washington County and western Bennington County, due to a potential response from Lake Champlain. Will have to watch radar and NYS mesonet trends closely, in case some minor accumulations occur over isolated areas. Otherwise, cold with decreasing wind, with highs mostly in the teens and 20s across northern areas and higher terrain, with lower/mid 30s in valley areas. Saturday night should be mostly clear and very cold as winds decrease/decouple along with lingering snowpack in northern areas. Expect low temps to drop to between zero and 10 below across the southern Adirondacks, zero to 10 above southern VT and the Saratoga/Lake George region, with mainly teens elsewhere. Sunday, confidence levels decrease in forecast beginning Sunday, as low level moisture from the offshore storm system potentially draws north to northwest into the region by late in the day. 09Z/SREFs actually indicate possibly light precipitation developing across SE areas before sunset. For now, have kept out mention of precipitation, although trends will need to be watched over the weekend in case timing and areal coverage of late day precipitation increases. Otherwise, still chilly with highs mainly in the 30s for valleys, 20s across higher elevations. Sunday night-Monday, high degree of uncertainty for this time period, track of offshore storm system remains uncertain, as does the potential interaction of low level moisture around the storm which could draw further north/west into portions of the region, and additional upper level energy approaching from the southwest. Latest 12Z/EC has trended even farther east with system than 00Z/15 cycle, keeping conditions mainly dry during this time period, while the GEM/NAM bring precipitation into the region Sunday night into Monday. Thermal profiles suggest warming aloft, favoring mainly sleet/freezing rain initially once precip develops, and with mainly light intensity expected, potential diabatic cooling of column may remain minimal (thus preventing change over to snow). Will be indicating chances for freezing rain late Sunday night into Monday morning, changing to plain rain by Monday afternoon for most areas, although can not rule out freezing rain lingering longer in some higher terrain areas and even some valley areas north of I-90 in NY, and the CT River Valley in southern VT. Ice accretion looks relatively light, generally less than one tenth of an inch, however the very cold temps from this weekend could allow for icing to occur rather easily on untreated surfaces during the Monday morning commute. So, despite light amounts, impacts for travelers could be quite high Monday morning. Lows Sunday night mostly in the 20s to around 30, with temps expected to gradually rise from S to N overnight. Highs Monday mainly in the 30s, although may only reach the lower 30s in some areas of the southern Adirondacks, the Lake George region, and areas adjacent to the CT River Valley in SE VT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast period will continue to feature a mean longwave trough over the Northeast. Low pressure near the New England Coast opens the long term with mixed precipitation transitioning to rain and snow, as an upper low moves over the region. More tranquil weather moves into the region for late WED-THU. Monday night into Tuesday...There continues to be some uncertainty concerning the location and the position of the coastal low Monday night into Tuesday. However, another northern stream trough looks to be moving in from the north and west with a transition of any light mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain to some snow by Tue morning with light accums of a coating to less than an inch over the higher terrain. The cyclonic vorticity advection with the short-wave will produce some isolated to scattered rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Temps will be below normal, but not as cold as this week. Lows will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in the valleys and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tuesday night into Wednesday...A weak frontal boundary moves across the region with some isolated to scattered rain and snow showers depending on how warm the boundary layer gets. There is not a lot of moisture with this front and its associated mid-level trough. Temps will be similar to Mon night into Tuesday with perhaps some slightly cooler temps WED due to the low-level cold advection in the wake of the front. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s over the mtns, and upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in the valley. Wednesday night into Thursday...High pressure builds in from the TN Valley and the Southeast with mainly fair, cold and dry weather before a warm front approaches from the lower Great Lakes late in the day. Lows fall back into the 20s to lower 30s. Some sunshine before thickening and lower clouds will allow for highs to trend close to normal late November readings. Thursday night into Friday...A low pressure system and cold front will bring widespread chances for rain and snow showers to close the week. Some lake and gulf moisture may be tapped, but the system looks very progressive to keep amounts light. Temps looks slightly below normal to normal to close the week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will move across the region early this evening with a reinforcing shot of arctic air. High pressure will build in from southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected most of the next 24 hours ending 00Z/SUN at KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered snow showers to locations north of KALB-KPSF between 00Z-05Z/SAT. The best chance of brief MVFR conditions is at KGFL where we have a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs/vsbys with snow showers between 01Z-03Z. Further south, VCSH groups were used 01Z-04Z/SAT at KALB with some high MVFR cigs. The moisture dries out and cigs may get to 3.5-4.0 kft AGL prior to midnight for KALB/KPSF, but then the skies will clear quickly with just some mid or high clouds near KPOU and scattered stratocumulus. Overall, clear or mostly clear skies are likely after 07Z/SAT at all the sites and continuing for the rest of the TAF cycle. The winds will be west to northwest at 8-14 kts with some gusts 20-25 kts at KALB/KPSF. The winds will veer to the north/northeast after 06Z/SAT at 5-10 kts and will continue through the morning into the afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of FZRA...SLEET. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FZRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... An arctic cold front will cross the region tonight, bringing some snow showers to northern areas. Dry and cold conditions will follow in the wake of the front for Saturday through Sunday. A coastal storm may bring a wintry mix or rain to portions of the region Sunday night into Monday. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible with the frontal passage early tonight, with some gusts up to 25 mph lingering until late tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through early next week. A passing Arctic cold front will return another round of cold temperatures for the weekend. Little precipitation is expected with this boundary and what little does occur will be only across northern areas and will be in the form of snow showers. Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be early to mid next week thanks to a coastal storm and exact amounts and precipitation types are still uncertain at this time, although current indications favor light amounts some of which may be in frozen/freezing form. With the cold temperatures in place, some ice will continue to form on shallow bodies of water. Otherwise, river and streams levels will generally hold steady into early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...JPV/Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 At 2 PM, broken high clouds were found along and south of Interstate 94. Elsewhere, skies were mainly sunny. Temperatures ranged from 35F at Medford, WI to 46F in Austin, MN. For tonight, there continues to be uncertainty on whether low clouds will once again develop. The SREF shows that these clouds would develop across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the RAP would have it mainly in eastern Wisconsin. While the low cloud forecast are uncertain, the models are in good agreement that mid and high clouds will move into the area. With very dry air over central and north- central Wisconsin, temperatures will drop off quickly this evening and be around 20 by midnight and in the teens overnight. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid and upper 20s. The Saturday high temperatures will be highly dependent on whether the low clouds develop or not. Due to this, opted to stay close to the 50th percentile on high temperatures (mid- and upper 30s). If they do not develop, we will likely be more around the 75th percentile which would have high temperatures around 40 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 From Saturday night into Sunday, a low pressure system will move east through the region. The models are in general agreement that this precipitation will move into the area around or after midnight and then continue into Sunday afternoon or evening. The soundings are saturated and the boundary layer is cold enough that the precipitation will be mainly snow on Saturday night and then transition to a mix as the boundary layer warms and there is a loss of ice aloft as the dry slot moves into the area. There could be even a brief period of freezing drizzle. Snow amounts will range from around a half inch in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin to around 2 inches north of Interstate 94. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 559 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 VFR conditions are expected tonight through the day Saturday. Mainly VFR high clouds are expected tonight, with winds becoming more southeast as the night wears on. There is potential for some low clouds or fog to form over areas with recent snowpack melt, but at present confidence in this is low as it looks like increasing winds just off the surface overnight will be enough to keep fog/low clouds at bay. This will have to be watched overnight, however. Tight pressure gradient between high pressure moving to our east and incoming area of lower pressure will lead to gusty southeasterly winds for Saturday, with gusts from 20 to 25 knots possible. Mainly high clouds are expected during the daytime ahead of the next system, which looks to spread in rain/snow chances and lower clouds later Saturday night. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Lee
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
614 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface high pressure over northwest Ontario and a weak cold front settling over the southern part of the Badger state. Some low clouds have pushed into far northern WI off Lake Superior, but otherwise, mostly clear skies prevail across northern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the next system is moving into the Pacific Northwest. As this system draws closer to the region, forecast concerns mainly revolve around clouds and temps. Tonight...The high pressure system will slide to the southeast across the far northern Great Lakes. After a mostly clear start to the evening, winds will be veering to the northeast and then southeast through the night. Delta T`s will be more than sufficient for lake clouds to move inland over the lakeshore late this evening, and possibly move into the Fox Valley and Bayshore areas after midnight. Forecast soundings look quite dry above 925mb, so don`t think will see any precip. Otherwise, will see mid and high clouds increase through the night ahead of the next system. Some low clouds may also redevelop over north-central WI late as moisture returns north. Due to onshore flow and increasing clouds, temps should remain relatively mild and range from the mid teens to mid 20s. Saturday...High pressure will continue to exit east of the region while the next front moves across the Dakotas. Low clouds are expected to remain over parts if not most of the area during the morning. Some erosion of the low clouds may occur with heating during the late morning and afternoon. It will likely remain a mostly cloudy day though, as a result of a blanket of mid and high clouds. Highs should remain mild despite the cloud cover and range from the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Initially, a relatively amplified and progressive flow to exist across the CONUS that will persist into the start of next week, before a new upper trough hits the West Coast and eventually becomes a closed upper low off the southern CA coast. This results in a split flow with a northern stream system impacting the Great Lakes late Wednesday night/Thursday. Temperatures should be mainly at or slightly below normal. As a cold front and mid-level shortwave trough move into the Upper MS Valley Saturday night, look for clouds to thicken over northeast WI with a chance of light snow reaching central WI by daybreak. A prevailing south wind, combined with the clouds, will prevent temperatures from falling much through the night. Min temperatures to mainly be in the 25-30 degree range. This front/ trough push into the western Great Lakes region on Sunday with sufficient lift/forcing/moisture present to make light snow or a rain/snow mix likely across the forecast area. This system is progressive and with temperatures at or above freezing, accumulation numbers should be on the light side (1-2 inches north and central, less than an inch east-central). Any rain/snow mix over eastern WI should transition to all snow by Sunday evening as temperatures cool after sunset. The bigger forecast problem could be the potential of freezing drizzle as a loss of ice aloft occurs behind the system. If freezing drizzle were to occur, this would impact the Monday morning commute, especially on untreated roads, bridges and overpasses. Min temperatures to range from the middle 20s north-central WI, to around 30 degrees east-central WI. A very weak surface ridge to drift across WI on Monday and may not have enough dry air or subsidence to break up the clouds. Thus, mostly cloudy skies to prevail through the day with max temperatures primarily in the middle to upper 30s. After a quiet, albeit cloudy Monday night, models show a weak shortwave trough to dive southeast through Lake Superior toward the eastern Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This system would bring a chance of a rain/snow mix or all rain to northeast WI as temperatures reach the middle 30s to around 40 degrees. As a new upper trough digs south over the western CONUS mid-week, a modest downstream upper ridge to develop over the central CONUS. At the surface, another weak surface ridge to pass through WI Tuesday night and reside to our east on Wednesday. There could be a brief break in the cloud dover as the ridge moves by, however clouds are expected to return on Wednesday as a return flow develops and WAA overspreads WI. From all indications, Wednesday could be the warmest day of the extended forecast as max temperatures reach around 40 degrees north-central, lower to middle 40s east-central WI. The western CONUS upper trough becomes a closed upper low off the southern CA coast, the mean flow becomes split east of the Rockies. a piece of energy ejects into the central Plains Wednesday night with an inverted surface trough to extend northeast into the Great Lakes. Southwest winds aloft to pull gulf moisture northward into WI where convergence along the surface trough should allow for precipitation to break out over northeast WI. Temperatures should cool enough by the time any precipitation were to begin, such that snow would be the main precipitation type. On Thursday, an area of low pressure to ride northeast along the eastward moving surface trough and combine with a northern stream shortwave trough, to continue the precipitation chances over the area. Precipitation type may become an issue as temperatures are mild initially, but colder air spilling into WI through the day would transition the precipitation to all snow. Plenty of details will need to be sorted out (location of surface trough, track of low pressure, timing of shortwave trough, amount of moisture, etc.), thus confidence is too low yet to even give a snow estimate on this system. This system quickly exits by Thursday evening, leaving cooler air and a northwest wind over WI. This may lead to some lake effect snow showers over north-central WI as 8H temperatures over western Lake Superior drop to around -12C. A ridge of high pressure to then build across WI on Friday, allowing skies to become partly cloudy. Max temperatures Friday to be around 30 degrees north, lower to middle 30s south. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 613 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 VFR conditions prevailed across the area during the afternoon hours. As winds veer to the northeast, look for lake effect clouds to push into eastern WI, bringing MVFR ceilings to MTW, GRB and ATW. Flurries will also be possible. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop overnight as flow becomes southeast and the low levels moisten up. Once the clouds develop, it will be tough to get rid of them on Saturday. Even if the lower clouds do break up some, mid and high clouds will be pushing across the area, so not much sunshine is expected. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......AK AVIATION.......Bersch