Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/14/19
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
430 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Northwest to north winds at mt top level across nrn and central NM at
23Z becoming west to northwest aft 14/12Z and diminishing. Dry cold
frontal boundary along and west of a KRTN-KLVS-KSXU line and sewd to
south of KCVN at 23Z to continue moving south and wwd with potential
for a relatively light east wind at KABQ aft about 14/03Z. HRRR and
HREF indicate there may be potential for patchy low clouds from the
KRTN to KCAO to KTCC area approximately 14/09Z-15Z but not confident
enough to add to the KTCC TAF at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and plenty of sunshine has led to highs closer to normal
across the state today. However, temperatures will cool a little bit
Thursday as another backdoor cold front slides into eastern New
Mexico later tonight. Friday and Saturday will be near seasonal
averages, before another system brings a chance for cooler
temperatures and the possibility of light wintry precipitation
Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
It`s been quite the temperature roller coaster this week, with highs
now returning near to above normal today under dry NW flow. A dry
backdoor cold front currently entering eastern New Mexico will
likely reach the RGV later tonight. There will be a round of gusty
winds across the eastern plains through this evening. Lows will be
near to above normal tonight, but daytime highs for Thursday will
stay 5 to 15 degrees below normal across the eastern and central
portions of the state. Temperatures across the western portion of the
state will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
A ridge of high pressure will cross the state Friday, leading to
highs roughly 5 to 15 degrees above normal with a few high clouds to
start off the weekend. A deepening trough crossing the northern
Rockies will reach the state Saturday, leading to cooler temperatures
and the potential for light wintry precipitation across the northern
mountains by Saturday night. Precipitation is likely to start off as
snow Saturday night across the northern Sangres to Clayton, before
turning to a rain/snow mix Sunday morning. The system is expected to
be quick- hitting, but the GFS more bull-ish on the precipitation. If
the GFS solution wins out, there is the potential to see a few
sprinkles as far south as the ABQ metro area Sunday morning. Sunday`s
highs will be below normal across the east and near to above normal
across the central and western portions of the state.
Dry and mild NW flow is possible again for Monday and Tuesday with
highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. There is the potential for
another quick- hitting system towards the middle part of the week,
but precipitation amounts are far from enthusiastic at this point.
31
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Marginal critical fire weather conditions over northeast NM behind a
back door cold front today will subside by sunset. High temperatures
will trend cooler with higher humidity across eastern NM Thursday.
An upper level high will crest over NM through Friday with warmer
temperatures, weaker mixing, and poor vent rates areawide. The upper
level high will break down quickly Friday night with increasing high
clouds. Temperatures will stay above normal Saturday with more high
clouds ahead of an upper level trough approaching from the northern
Rockies. This system will force another strong cold front through NM
Saturday night and Sunday. There is a chance for some light snow and
rain from northeast NM south along the east slopes of the central mt
chain. Temperatures will warm above normal again Monday and Tuesday
with more poor ventilation.
Guyer
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019
The early afternoon surface analysis showed a downslope modified
cold front pushing quickly south down the central High Plains,
reaching the northwestern Texas Panhandle as of 19z. A channel of 20
to 30 mph sustained winds out of the north developed, mainly along
and west of U83. The HRRR model did a good job of warming
temperatures up into the mid to even upper 60s despite the north
winds across far southwest Kansas, as 19z observations showed
temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range (70 at Elkhart).
Tonight, winds will drop off in speed, but remaining out of the
north. The north winds will actually bring in higher dewpoints from
Nebraska, which is unusual in the cold season. Dewpoints tonight
will likely increase to the mid to upper 20s, and this may actually
lead to development of patchy light fog in spots. The NAM12, WRF-
ARW, and WRF NMMb all suggest fog development, but the HRRR and RAP
do not. It is quite unusual to get fog development with a north or
northwest wind, but it is something the evening and overnight shifts
will need to pay attention to. For now, the official forecast will
not have fog development. On Thursday, north winds will continue,
however much lighter at around 7 to 12 mph. With the fresh, cooler
airmass in place, temperatures will be slow to warm through the 40s,
topping out in the lower to mid 50s most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019
The long term portion of the forecast, Friday through next
Wednesday, will be rather quiet. An upper level ridge will build
across the Rockies and move out across the Western Plains at the
beginning of this period before it dampens out and moves east. This
will be followed up by another quick-moving trough over the weekend.
The precipitation event with this system will be confined primarily
to the higher terrain of Wyoming, Colorado and eventually northern
New Mexico.
For Kansas, our only shot at any measurable precipitation (which is
very low) will be tied to the 700mb cold front passage some time
late Saturday Night or early Sunday. POP grids from the latest
NationalBlend still show less than 15 percent for the entire DDC
forecast area, and we will maintain this forecast, so no mention of
precipitation during this period. The ECMWF does have some light
QPF, less than 0.05 inch though, but may be enough to warrant some
20 POPs of the other models join in on precipitation along this
700mb front. If we do not see any measurable moisture out of this
system, then it will be quite awhile until the next possible chance.
Through the end of this period, the daily temperatures are forecast
to be remarkably stable with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s
each day across much of the area.
There is an interesting pattern change to potentially wetter just
beyond this forecast period in the 8-10 day time frame as a potent
Southwest Low may develop during this time frame. It is far too
early, obviously, to begin getting excited about any big
precipitation event affecting any portion of western Kansas, though.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019
VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites
through early Thursday afternoon. North winds 5 to 15kt will
persist overnight as surface high pressure spreads southward
across the Northern Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 53 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 24 54 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 26 56 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 24 54 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 26 50 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
P28 27 52 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
920 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
- Lake Enhanced snow tonight Muskegon to Ludington
- No storms but remaining colder than normal into next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
We did lower the accumulations slightly in the winter weather
advisory area. Overall the light snow persists in the advisory
area. So far this event as featured mainly light snow and
accumulations...however more snow is forecasted to move in
overnight. The latest HRRR is showing 1 to 2 additional inches of
accumulation into Thursday morning. As a result we will keep the
headline going but lower the values down to 2 to 4 inches.
Elsewhere around the area a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow is
predicted...which could lead to some localized slick spots on the
the roadways.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory. Isentropic ascent is
expected to combine with modest lake effect banding to produce a
general 2 to 4 inch area of snow from Muskegon to Ludington from
late this afternoon to early morning Thursday.
Forecast and observed soundings show dry wedge being eroded this
afternoon and the DGZ saturated near the top of the inversion
around 5 to 6 kft, then again at mid levels where there is
isentropic ascent. So we expect about a six hour period from
about 6 pm to midnight where enhanced snowfall rates are possible
then winding down after midnight as the mid levels dry out and
inversion heights lower.
Generally quiet and dry weather is expected from late Thursday
into early next week as northwest flow continues with
temperatures higher than the current record cold levels, but
still below normal for mid November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 613 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
The dry air in the low levels has limited the snow for the TAF
sites. However as we go through the evening the axis of deeper
moisture pivots east which will allow for the snow to move into
most TAF sites for a period. MVFR conditions are forecasted to
prevail once the snow moves in. Conditions could lower to IFR
mainly for KMKG. The snow will pull away later tonight into
Thursday morning. Conditions will improve slowly from the west
during the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
Gale warning will transition to a Small Craft Advisory this
afternoon and then continuing into Thursday. After a brief lull on
Thursday afternoon, winds and waves will increase again Thursday
night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043-
050.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1019 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Radar shows scattered showers along the Upper Keys and adjacent
waters, and across the offshore Gulf waters to the NE of the Dry
Tortugas. In between, dry conditions prevail across the Middle and
Lower Keys as of mid evening. ENE winds of 5 to 10 knots along the
island chain are holding temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary located just
north of the Keys and over extreme SE Florida, with more
concentrated shower activity along the front over Biscayne Bay and
the Atlantic waters east of Miami. Aloft, water vapor imagery
shows a broad trough exiting over the Atlantic, with the next
trough digging over the central CONUS, and a well-defined
mid/upper level cyclone over northern Mexico. The 00Z Key West
sounding found relatively moist low levels with an above normal PW
of 1.61 inches, but drier mid levels above an inversion based at
7000 feet. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows an area of increased moisture
with estimated PWs around 1.8 inches moving into the Upper Keys
along the stalled front.
Overnight, the front will remain stalled just to the north of the
Keys and over far SE Florida, with the highest rain chances likely
remaining across the Upper Keys nearest to the front, and rain
chances dropping as you move west, down to slight chance in the
Lower Keys. This scenario is supported both by radar trends and
recent HRRR runs. A forecast update has been sent to increase rain
chances for the Upper Keys overnight. Otherwise, expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures falling only a few degrees
from current readings, into the lower to mid 70s by morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Evening observations vary quite a bit across the Keys waters, with
the strongest winds, near 20 knots, over the offshore Gulf waters
and the far eastern waters off the Upper Keys. In between, wind
speeds generally range from 10 to 15 knots as of mid evening. A
forecast update was sent earlier to raise Small Craft Exercise
Caution (SCEC) across the Atlantic waters and Hawk Channel off the
Upper Keys due to the persistent fresh NE winds of 18 to 20 knots
at Carysfort Reef Light. Winds have recently increased to SCEC
range at Smith Shoal Light also, as expected. For the late evening
forecast update, will likely drop the Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
for the Lower Straits, as seas are likely now subsiding below 7
feet. SCA will remain posted for the offshore Gulf waters west of
Mainland Monroe and around the Dry Tortugas, where stronger winds
to the north of the frontal boundary are present.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Thursday at the EYW and
MTH island terminals. A stalled frontal boundary will remain just
north of the Keys overnight, with scattered shower activity
tending to remain mostly along the front and north/east of the
terminals. Isolated showers and brief MVFR conditions will be
possible, but the probability of occurrence is too low to mention
in the terminal forecasts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The high temperature in Key West on Wednesday was 82 degrees. This
marked the 231st consecutive day that the high in Key West reached
at least 80 degrees. This is the longest streak of 80+ degree
highs on record at Key West, dating back to 1872. The last day on
which the high remained below 80 degrees was March 27, when the
high temperature was 78. Before this year, the previous longest
streak of 80+ degree highs at Key West was 225 days, ending on
October 22, 1965. Current model guidance indicates that our
current streak of 80+ highs will probably come to an end this
weekend, in the wake of a strong cold front.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076-077.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033-034-055-075.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Climate...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts.......Jacobson
Data Collection.........Chesser
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