Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/14/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
430 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Northwest to north winds at mt top level across nrn and central NM at 23Z becoming west to northwest aft 14/12Z and diminishing. Dry cold frontal boundary along and west of a KRTN-KLVS-KSXU line and sewd to south of KCVN at 23Z to continue moving south and wwd with potential for a relatively light east wind at KABQ aft about 14/03Z. HRRR and HREF indicate there may be potential for patchy low clouds from the KRTN to KCAO to KTCC area approximately 14/09Z-15Z but not confident enough to add to the KTCC TAF at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Light winds and plenty of sunshine has led to highs closer to normal across the state today. However, temperatures will cool a little bit Thursday as another backdoor cold front slides into eastern New Mexico later tonight. Friday and Saturday will be near seasonal averages, before another system brings a chance for cooler temperatures and the possibility of light wintry precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... It`s been quite the temperature roller coaster this week, with highs now returning near to above normal today under dry NW flow. A dry backdoor cold front currently entering eastern New Mexico will likely reach the RGV later tonight. There will be a round of gusty winds across the eastern plains through this evening. Lows will be near to above normal tonight, but daytime highs for Thursday will stay 5 to 15 degrees below normal across the eastern and central portions of the state. Temperatures across the western portion of the state will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A ridge of high pressure will cross the state Friday, leading to highs roughly 5 to 15 degrees above normal with a few high clouds to start off the weekend. A deepening trough crossing the northern Rockies will reach the state Saturday, leading to cooler temperatures and the potential for light wintry precipitation across the northern mountains by Saturday night. Precipitation is likely to start off as snow Saturday night across the northern Sangres to Clayton, before turning to a rain/snow mix Sunday morning. The system is expected to be quick- hitting, but the GFS more bull-ish on the precipitation. If the GFS solution wins out, there is the potential to see a few sprinkles as far south as the ABQ metro area Sunday morning. Sunday`s highs will be below normal across the east and near to above normal across the central and western portions of the state. Dry and mild NW flow is possible again for Monday and Tuesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. There is the potential for another quick- hitting system towards the middle part of the week, but precipitation amounts are far from enthusiastic at this point. 31 && .FIRE WEATHER... Marginal critical fire weather conditions over northeast NM behind a back door cold front today will subside by sunset. High temperatures will trend cooler with higher humidity across eastern NM Thursday. An upper level high will crest over NM through Friday with warmer temperatures, weaker mixing, and poor vent rates areawide. The upper level high will break down quickly Friday night with increasing high clouds. Temperatures will stay above normal Saturday with more high clouds ahead of an upper level trough approaching from the northern Rockies. This system will force another strong cold front through NM Saturday night and Sunday. There is a chance for some light snow and rain from northeast NM south along the east slopes of the central mt chain. Temperatures will warm above normal again Monday and Tuesday with more poor ventilation. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 The early afternoon surface analysis showed a downslope modified cold front pushing quickly south down the central High Plains, reaching the northwestern Texas Panhandle as of 19z. A channel of 20 to 30 mph sustained winds out of the north developed, mainly along and west of U83. The HRRR model did a good job of warming temperatures up into the mid to even upper 60s despite the north winds across far southwest Kansas, as 19z observations showed temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range (70 at Elkhart). Tonight, winds will drop off in speed, but remaining out of the north. The north winds will actually bring in higher dewpoints from Nebraska, which is unusual in the cold season. Dewpoints tonight will likely increase to the mid to upper 20s, and this may actually lead to development of patchy light fog in spots. The NAM12, WRF- ARW, and WRF NMMb all suggest fog development, but the HRRR and RAP do not. It is quite unusual to get fog development with a north or northwest wind, but it is something the evening and overnight shifts will need to pay attention to. For now, the official forecast will not have fog development. On Thursday, north winds will continue, however much lighter at around 7 to 12 mph. With the fresh, cooler airmass in place, temperatures will be slow to warm through the 40s, topping out in the lower to mid 50s most areas. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 The long term portion of the forecast, Friday through next Wednesday, will be rather quiet. An upper level ridge will build across the Rockies and move out across the Western Plains at the beginning of this period before it dampens out and moves east. This will be followed up by another quick-moving trough over the weekend. The precipitation event with this system will be confined primarily to the higher terrain of Wyoming, Colorado and eventually northern New Mexico. For Kansas, our only shot at any measurable precipitation (which is very low) will be tied to the 700mb cold front passage some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday. POP grids from the latest NationalBlend still show less than 15 percent for the entire DDC forecast area, and we will maintain this forecast, so no mention of precipitation during this period. The ECMWF does have some light QPF, less than 0.05 inch though, but may be enough to warrant some 20 POPs of the other models join in on precipitation along this 700mb front. If we do not see any measurable moisture out of this system, then it will be quite awhile until the next possible chance. Through the end of this period, the daily temperatures are forecast to be remarkably stable with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s each day across much of the area. There is an interesting pattern change to potentially wetter just beyond this forecast period in the 8-10 day time frame as a potent Southwest Low may develop during this time frame. It is far too early, obviously, to begin getting excited about any big precipitation event affecting any portion of western Kansas, though. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through early Thursday afternoon. North winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight as surface high pressure spreads southward across the Northern Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 26 53 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 24 54 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 26 56 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 24 54 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 26 50 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 P28 27 52 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
920 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 - Lake Enhanced snow tonight Muskegon to Ludington - No storms but remaining colder than normal into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 We did lower the accumulations slightly in the winter weather advisory area. Overall the light snow persists in the advisory area. So far this event as featured mainly light snow and accumulations...however more snow is forecasted to move in overnight. The latest HRRR is showing 1 to 2 additional inches of accumulation into Thursday morning. As a result we will keep the headline going but lower the values down to 2 to 4 inches. Elsewhere around the area a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow is predicted...which could lead to some localized slick spots on the the roadways. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory. Isentropic ascent is expected to combine with modest lake effect banding to produce a general 2 to 4 inch area of snow from Muskegon to Ludington from late this afternoon to early morning Thursday. Forecast and observed soundings show dry wedge being eroded this afternoon and the DGZ saturated near the top of the inversion around 5 to 6 kft, then again at mid levels where there is isentropic ascent. So we expect about a six hour period from about 6 pm to midnight where enhanced snowfall rates are possible then winding down after midnight as the mid levels dry out and inversion heights lower. Generally quiet and dry weather is expected from late Thursday into early next week as northwest flow continues with temperatures higher than the current record cold levels, but still below normal for mid November. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 613 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 The dry air in the low levels has limited the snow for the TAF sites. However as we go through the evening the axis of deeper moisture pivots east which will allow for the snow to move into most TAF sites for a period. MVFR conditions are forecasted to prevail once the snow moves in. Conditions could lower to IFR mainly for KMKG. The snow will pull away later tonight into Thursday morning. Conditions will improve slowly from the west during the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Gale warning will transition to a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and then continuing into Thursday. After a brief lull on Thursday afternoon, winds and waves will increase again Thursday night. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043- 050. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS SYNOPSIS...Ostuno DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...MJS MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1019 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 .DISCUSSION... Radar shows scattered showers along the Upper Keys and adjacent waters, and across the offshore Gulf waters to the NE of the Dry Tortugas. In between, dry conditions prevail across the Middle and Lower Keys as of mid evening. ENE winds of 5 to 10 knots along the island chain are holding temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary located just north of the Keys and over extreme SE Florida, with more concentrated shower activity along the front over Biscayne Bay and the Atlantic waters east of Miami. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a broad trough exiting over the Atlantic, with the next trough digging over the central CONUS, and a well-defined mid/upper level cyclone over northern Mexico. The 00Z Key West sounding found relatively moist low levels with an above normal PW of 1.61 inches, but drier mid levels above an inversion based at 7000 feet. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows an area of increased moisture with estimated PWs around 1.8 inches moving into the Upper Keys along the stalled front. Overnight, the front will remain stalled just to the north of the Keys and over far SE Florida, with the highest rain chances likely remaining across the Upper Keys nearest to the front, and rain chances dropping as you move west, down to slight chance in the Lower Keys. This scenario is supported both by radar trends and recent HRRR runs. A forecast update has been sent to increase rain chances for the Upper Keys overnight. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures falling only a few degrees from current readings, into the lower to mid 70s by morning. && .MARINE... Evening observations vary quite a bit across the Keys waters, with the strongest winds, near 20 knots, over the offshore Gulf waters and the far eastern waters off the Upper Keys. In between, wind speeds generally range from 10 to 15 knots as of mid evening. A forecast update was sent earlier to raise Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) across the Atlantic waters and Hawk Channel off the Upper Keys due to the persistent fresh NE winds of 18 to 20 knots at Carysfort Reef Light. Winds have recently increased to SCEC range at Smith Shoal Light also, as expected. For the late evening forecast update, will likely drop the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the Lower Straits, as seas are likely now subsiding below 7 feet. SCA will remain posted for the offshore Gulf waters west of Mainland Monroe and around the Dry Tortugas, where stronger winds to the north of the frontal boundary are present. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Thursday at the EYW and MTH island terminals. A stalled frontal boundary will remain just north of the Keys overnight, with scattered shower activity tending to remain mostly along the front and north/east of the terminals. Isolated showers and brief MVFR conditions will be possible, but the probability of occurrence is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts. && .CLIMATE... The high temperature in Key West on Wednesday was 82 degrees. This marked the 231st consecutive day that the high in Key West reached at least 80 degrees. This is the longest streak of 80+ degree highs on record at Key West, dating back to 1872. The last day on which the high remained below 80 degrees was March 27, when the high temperature was 78. Before this year, the previous longest streak of 80+ degree highs at Key West was 225 days, ending on October 22, 1965. Current model guidance indicates that our current streak of 80+ highs will probably come to an end this weekend, in the wake of a strong cold front. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076-077. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033-034-055-075. && $$ Public/Marine/Climate...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts.......Jacobson Data Collection.........Chesser Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: