Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
945 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Brief period of precip-free wx in northern MI was, well, brief. Low-level moisture has pooled along the cold front that is moving into eastern upper MI. This has re-activated the lakes in a regime of marginal instability, with some light snow that started at the twin Saults at about 7 pm. This has diminished in intensity somewhat, though MQT radar already showing a post-frontal streamer poking into the Gd Marais area. There will be more, with central/northern Chippewa Co being the primary target. Potential for 1-2" in snow overnight in western Chip. Ahead of the front, mid-level moisture associated with a shortwave is increasing into northern lower. The strongest forcing with this wave will slip just to our south. However, with the surface cold front making steady progress to the se tonight, we will have enough deep moisture to allow weak lake enhanced precip to develop. Latest guidance suggests this will spotty at best, with an uptick in coverage perhaps toward daybreak over the higher terrain of northern lower. Will be reducing pops in northern lower MI for much of the night. Even as (initially) weak cold advection begins post-fropa, clouds will temper/delay further temp falls. Min temps have been boosted a bit in northern lower MI. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 337 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 ...Back into snow showers later tonight... High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal through tonight. Some accumulating lake snows by Sunday morning. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Surface low pressure has slowly migrated into northeast Lake Superior with much of the state within some semblance of a "warm sector" this afternoon (0C H8 isotherm is nudging into western Lower Michigan per latest RAP forecasts). Warm/dry air advection into the region has eroded a good portion of the lower cloud cover particularly south of M-72 where there is a good amount of bonus sunshine. Lake cloudiness is hanging on across northern Lake Michigan into the tip of the mitt/Straits and eastern Upper Michigan...although precip has substantially dwindled this afternoon. Upstream, surface cold front stretches back into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Another round of thicker cloud cover and light precip is sliding southeastward through the Upper Midwest along the front/tight thermal gradient with some light RA/SN being reported. Primary Forecast Concerns: Minor. Increasing lake effect snows late tonight into Sunday. Surface low over Lake Superior further departs into Canada, gradually nudging the cold front back down into northern Michigan later tonight. Round of upstream light precip will eventually spread across the region later this evening and overnight. But similar to last night, I don`t expect much...some light snow or flurries with minor accumulations. However, winds veer northwesterly with colder air spreading back into the region. This will push lake effect precip back through eastern Upper Michigan and eventually back into parts of northern Lower Michigan as we go through the night. Heavier of the lake effect snow showers will impact parts of northern Chippewa county, especially around Whitefish Point, where a couple of inches of snow are possible overnight. Lesser amounts in the snowbelts of northern Lower Michigan, maybe an inch. No headlines planned at this juncture. && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 ...More Lake Lake Effect... High Impact Weather Potential...There could be moderate to heavy lake effect Sunday night as the winds veer north overnight into Monday morning. Temperatures remain cold enough to keep the lake effect at least moderate depending on the consistency of the wind directions. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...As today`s clipper moves into Quebec, the cold air behind it pushes into the Upper Great Lakes, and drops our 850 mb temperatures to around -8c by 12z/Sun. High pressure continues to build int the region, through the day, which veers the winds from NW to NNW to N by 00z/Mon. 850 mb temperatures by 00z/Mon are -17c in E Upper and -15c over N Lake Michigan. The models have most of the snow bands roughly west of US-131 Sunday night into Monday morning with the SREF showing some spread to put snow into areas near I-75. Also, the models begin to have different degrees of NNE winds over Lake Huron so that portions of NE Lower may see some LES Sunday night as well. Monday, the winds begin to back to the NW which looks to move the snow bands into the NW and NC Lower with the more favored NW flow regions. This flow regime looks to last through Tuesday afternoon before the 1000-850 mb layer wind ridge axis pushes into the region by the evening, as well as the 850-700 mb layer dry air. Primary Forecast Concerns...Most of this forecast is dominated by the cold air that is pushing into the region from the Arctic high that has been progged over the last couple of days. So the main concern will be the wind direction. While temperatures are expected to fall, and put us into a favorable LES pattern that could support some really good instability, the main concern then comes down to the wind direction and how long the wind remains from a particular direction, and thus how long will the snow be falling in one place. Also a concern, when the winds veer or back, if the change in direction is significant enough, then band mergers are possible, and very heavy snow is possible in a smaller time period. All of the models point at these being an issue, especially the SREF as the mean snow fall amounts are spread out quite a bit, with fewer bull`s eyes down the streamlines. That seems to mean that the snow is more spread out, than any of the deterministic models. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 337 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 High Impact Weather Potential...The rest of the week looks to be LES dominated as the cold temperatures (<-10c 850 mb) continue. Extended (Tuesday evening through Saturday)...Tuesday evening, the ridge axis moves through the region, and turns the winds from NW to S. This would produce some snow in NW lower, but probably closer to MBL and FKS, otherwise the band that would form would impact ISQ to about Naubinway overnight and into Wednesday evening. Wednesday evening, the trough moves through the region and the winds veer NW, and we continue the chance for snow showers through Thursday. Thursday night, the winds begin to back again to the west, and the 850 mb temperatures warm to around 0C. So the precipitation will come to an end by Thursday evening. The models show another cold front on Friday, but all of them are bringing it through dry. With the 850 mb temperatures falling upstream, not sure that I buy it. However, will leave the forecast as is. The reason I`m not sure about it is the -15C temperatures over Lakes Superior and Michigan. Think that with the instability there will be some snow, but the air is very dry, so it may be flurries if there are any. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 IFR cigs PLN late tonight. Low pressure ne of upper MI will continue to move away from the region. However, this system will drag a cold front across northern MI tonight and early Sunday. MVFR cigs are already prevalent across eastern upper and far northern lower MI. These will expand southward today and lower a little further. Expect IFR cigs for a period at PLN late tonight. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR to VFr conditions is forecast. Patchy light snow will also expand back into the region as cooler air returns. Present ssw winds will become nw early Sunday and north later in the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Gustier SW winds diminish this evening. Will keep small craft advisories going on Lake Michigan through the evening as waves diminish back below small craft criteria. Gustier NW winds develop late tonight through Sunday night...and a fresh round of small craft advisory headlines will likely be needed at that time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...BA SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...BA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1020 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will linger into early next week. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday, before high pressure returns and prevails through Thursday. A low pressure system could the impact the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... The biggest concern for tonight is in regards to how cold temps get and how much frost there will be. Almost ideal radiational cooling will continue away from the coastline, and we expect lows most places inland to drop colder than they were Saturday morning. There is definitely a potential for us being too cold as the HREF, HRRR, SREF and RAP all continue to show min temps a bit above freezing. But since much of this guidance initialized to "warm" and some of the MOS guidance still suggests min temps of 31-32F, we have maintained the Freeze Warning as before. No changes to the Frost Advisory, with scattered to widespread coverage. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday and Monday: The center of sfc high pressure will remain across the forecast area on Sunday, sliding NE along the Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. Sunny conditions and light winds will remain across the CWA, resulting in temperatures to warm around 30 degrees between sunrise and mid-afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to generally range in the mid to upper 60s. As the high center shifts north, light return flow should develop across the region late Sunday night into Monday. As a result, milder thicknesses will limit cooling Sunday night, but values are expect to fall 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Using a blend of MOS, I will forecast low 40s inland to the mid to upper 40s across the coastal counties. A cold front is forecast to run from the Arklatex NE across the Ohio River Valley by sunset Monday. LLVL return flow is expected to gradually increase through the day. High temperatures on Monday should peak around seasonable normals, ranging in the low to mid 70s. The cold front is forecast to slide across the southern Appalachians Monday night. Mid and high clouds ahead of the cold front will spread across the CWA, yielding at least BKN sky conditions by Tuesday morning. Low temperatures are expected to remain around 10 degrees warmer than Monday morning values. Short range guidance times a band of showers associated with the cold front sweeping west to east across the CWA during the daylight hours Tuesday. I will forecast low likely PoPs on Tuesday, QPF should favor values around a quarter of an inch. High temps expected to range in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry/cool high pressure will build across the area behind a departing cold front Tuesday night, then will persist through at least early Thursday. The main issue will be cold overnight temps Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Latest guidance suggests cold air advection followed by radiational cooling helping temps lower into the upper 20s inland to lower/middle 30s near the coast Tuesday night. A Frost Advisory or Freeze Watch/Warning could eventually be needed for most areas away from the coast. Conditions will remain dry and struggle to warm during the day on Wednesday with afternoon highs only peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday night will see conditions similar to the previous night as a light north/northeast wind prevails along the southern edge of high pressure centered to the north. However, low temps should be a degree or two warmer, ranging in the low/mid 30s inland to upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast. Temps should slowly warm back into the mid/upper 50s Thursday while a coastal trough develops along the Southeast coast. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, especially later in the day as the coastal trough enhances ahead of a potentially strong low pressure system developing over the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure system could track across the Southeast United States and/or just offshore Thursday night through Saturday, producing scattered to perhaps numerous showers during the weekend, some of which could be heavy rainfall producers given PWATs approaching 1.5-1.75 inches across southern areas. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR at KCHS and KSAV through 00Z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Monday night at both CHS and SAV terminals. Ceiling and/or low vsbys restrictions are possible Tuesday morning into Tuesday night due to showers along and ahead of a passing cold front. VFR conditions expected at both CHS and SAV terminals Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to slowly decline through the night as high pressure builds over the Southeast United States. We still have a Small Craft Advisory for lingering 6 foot seas on the outer GA waters, with seas no more than 3 or 4 feet elsewhere. Winds on average will be north at 10-15 kt. High pressure will remain across the coastal waters Sunday through Monday night. The pattern should yields winds 10 kts or less with seas of 1 to 3 ft. A cold front will sweep across the region on Tuesday, gusty NW winds are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours. Short term guidance indicates that winds will strengthen to near gale force with the arrival of CAA Tuesday night. Gale Watch/Warning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger across waters on Wednesday, the outer GA waters through Wednesday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tide levels in the Charleston Harbor will be close to the requirement of a Coastal Flood Advisory early Sunday morning. Our latest thinking is for around 7.0 to 7.1 ft MLLW. Tide levels will not be high enough at Ft. Pulaski for an advisory. Levels will remain elevated through at least the middle of the week, and Coastal Flood Advisories could be required for the morning high tides. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ087-088-099>101. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ114>116-137-138. SC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST Sunday for SCZ040-042>045-047. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
443 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 432 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Afternoon update to the forecast included the cancellation of the Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zone 313 in the Nebraska Panhandle. Several daytime maximum high temperatures were tied or broken in regard to temperature records. A more detailed report will likely be available on social media and the website within the next 12-24 hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Rest of this afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 The early afternoon WV/IR loop revealed a upper ridge over the southwestern US, with a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing. Warming/drying downslope winds lee of the Front Range and mostly sunny skies resulted in near record or record high temperatures. Cheyenne WY tied its record high of 70 in 2016, and may exceed the record by late afternoon. Scottsbluff and Sidney NE already broke their respective record high temperatures. Strong westerly winds continued across portions of the wind-prone areas of southeast WY. Bordeaux (zone 106) measured a peak gust of 58 mph and Arlington (zone 110) 57 mph. Peak gusts of 50 to 55 mph were observed near the I-80 Summit. Winds the past hour were slowly diminishing, as are the 700/850mb gradients and winds aloft. High Wind Warnings may be cancelled by 3 PM. Expect partly cloudy skies and seasonably chilly temperatures tonight. Attention turns to the arrival of the arctic front which currently extends from northern MT and ND into central MN. There are minor timing differences, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. Front enters east-central WY and the northern NE Panhandle early Sunday afternoon, and southeast WY and southern NE Panhandle late Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 50s ahead of the front Sunday afternoon, and fall through the 30s and 40s behind it. Rain will transition to a wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle Sunday evening, then become all snow per model sounding profiles. Modest dendritic growth will result in light snow accumulations, mainly one to two inches east of the Laramie Range. Ice accretion will be minimal. Travel impacts will be limited to snow-covered, slick road surfaces. Visibility restrictions will be minimal due to light snow and lack of blowing snow. Snow tapers off from north to south Monday morning. It will be much colder compared to today/s highs with 700mb temperatures in the -10 to -16C range. The arctic front stalled just west of the Front Range shifts east Monday night. CAG-CPR and CAG-BRX 700/850mb gradients increase to 55 to 65 meters by 12Z Tuesday as well as GFS 700mb winds near 45 kt. High wind headlines may be required for Arlington late Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Cold air quickly departs the CWA Tuesday as the surface high sinks into the southern plains with temps rebounding nicely. It will also be windy at times across southeast Wyoming. Next shortwave clips the area Weds but latest model runs backing off on effects with little or no QPF and just a minor cool front. Will keep low pops in place for now to see if this stays consistent. Upper ridging Thursday and Friday keeps mild and dry weather over the area. Next shortwave approaches the CWA Saturday and could spread some pcpn into the CWA by late in the day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 406 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Changes coming in the TAFs as a backdoor cold front moves into the area from the northeast after 06Z. Northeast winds behind the front will create low clouds and some fog over the northern Nebraska Panhandle airports...possibly as far southwest as KTOR and KBFF. Used HRRR timing on onset of low clouds. Next surge with front moves in Sunday afternoon with snow developing after 00Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Minimum relative humidities from 10 to 15 percent combined with gusty west to northwest winds up to 30 mph and prime fuels will create critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MST for the southern Nebraska Panhandle. A surge of colder air arrives Sunday afternoon and evening, along with occasional light snow and freezing drizzle. The mixed precipitation will end by Monday afternoon. Breezy and milder weather is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...BW SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...MAJ