Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/09/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Drier air is working over much of northern and eastern NM and will result in VFR conditions persisting, with a couple possible exceptions where sufficient near-surface moisture is hanging on. KROW may deteriorate overnight to IFR in fog, but forecast confidence is trending down given latest model guidance. Fog may redevelop in the Rio Grande Valley late tonight as well, but should remain below KAEG and KABQ thanks to the drying of the lower boundary layer currently taking place. Otherwise, winds will generally be light through the TAF period. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...159 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Another area of fog and low clouds will redevelop over southeast New Mexico tonight. Visibility may fall below one half mile in some areas along the Pecos River Valley and the Caprock. Saturday will feature much warmer temperatures with light winds and mostly sunny skies. A back door cold front will move southwest into northeast New Mexico on Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures. The remainder of the region will stay warm and sunny with light winds. The cold front will surge west through central New Mexico on Veterans Day with much colder air and more low clouds for the eastern plains. Light snow is possible near the Colorado border Monday morning. Temperatures will stay cool into Tuesday before warming again Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level winds indicate a col pattern developing over central NM as a sheared upper wave drifts northward into a weakening upper level ridge. 21Z surface obs indicate low level moisture is struggling to scour out from north to south with light winds and very weak mixing beneath the col. Remnant low level moisture tonight will lead to another round of low cigs and fog across the Pecos Valley and the Caprock region. NAM, RAP, and HRRR Bufr profiles for KROW and KCVS show fog development likely overnight so have expanded coverage area from the lower Pecos to the Caprock. The HRRR was suggestive of fog again in the middle/lower RGV and Estancia Valley but confidence was too low to include at this time. Saturday will be much warmer for the entire area with patchy high clouds and light winds. The next back door cold front arrives Sunday over eastern NM as a 1048mb surface high builds southward down the Front Range. Temps will cool a few degrees in the east while central and western NM remain mild with above normal readings. The cold front will slide west through the RGV Sunday night and lead to much cooler temperatures areawide for Veterans Day. Enough shallow moisture will be present along and east of the central mt chain for another round of low clouds, freezing fog, and perhaps some light snow along the CO border. Temps will remain chilly through Tuesday before warming again Wednesday. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent for the next 7 days, except for sub 15 percent humidities across much of the northeast on Saturday afternoon. A gusty back door cold front will dive southwestward across eastern areas late Sunday night and into central and western areas on Monday. Moist, easterly, upslope flow with the front could result in some very light precipitation along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and across the far northeast plains late Sunday night and Monday. After a warming trend today and Saturday pushes highs a few to 13 degrees above normal by Saturday afternoon, Sunday night/Monday`s back door cold front will cause readings to plummet up to 16 degrees below normal across central areas on Monday, and as much as 28 degrees below normal across the east. Readings will begin to rebound in the east on Tuesday, but not until Wednesday in the west. Most areas will experience poor ventilation this afternoon and Saturday, except for pockets of improvement across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon. Gusty west winds will develop Sunday across central and southern areas leading to broader and stronger ventilation improvement there, but vent rates will be fair to poor across the north. After a mixed bag of vent rates with the crossing of Monday`s front, widespread poor ventilation is again expected Tuesday through the middle of next week. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
552 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 As anticipated, the moderating of our temperatures continues into Saturday, and we enjoy widespread agreement and consistency among short and mid-range models for a very warm Saturday. The timing of the approaching cold front from the north should help us reach near our maximum potential for highs, barring any unforeseen thick cirrus. The NAM appears to be a relatively cool outlier, which is sometimes the case as it sometimes is a little too moist with pre- frontal airmasses. I went with a combination of Bias corrected ARW and HRRR and adjusting for recent cool bias recent warm day(s) that we have had. This generally puts temperatures a bit above guidance for highs tomorrow with highs near 70 to the mid 70s southwest. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 Overall synoptic pattern still looks like it is on track as the amplification of the west coast/eastern Pacific ridge allows very cold air to settle south into the eastern 2/3 to 3/4 of the United States. Highs are still on track for only lower 40s for the tri- cities on Sunday as plenty of stratus will move in behind the cold front passing through Saturday night. All model solutions agree that 0.5 km AGL dewpoint depressions will support a completely stratus- filled day and a stiff east northeast wind to accompany it. Monday highs still look quite cold in the 20s, and perhaps some in our north may have trouble breaking into the 20s, with a stiff north wind. This would be considered quite a cold day in January, so this is going to be particularly cold for this time of year and is anomalous. By Monday night/Tuesday morning, I can say with good confidence that the surface high will be nearby, and will be near 1040 mb, give or take, when it makes it into the central Plains. This will support a very cold morning on Tuesday morning, with lows in the single digits. A second push of cold air arrives Sunday night along with a quick shot of snow. The precipitation type is not in question as conditions will be very cold throughout the vertical column of air. I increased wind speeds significantly with strong cold air advection anticipated. Overall, models are going rather light with precipitation amounts for Sunday night, and keeping higher qpf to the north and west of the CWA. Considering the quick-hitting, northwest flow nature of our synoptic pattern, the low amounts of snowfall in our forecast will be continued in the half to one inch range. Even using the higher ratio of the Kuchera method, the highest amounts that we muster is 1.5 inches in the Ord area from the ECMWF, which is a clear outlier compared to other solutions that are much lighter. The NAM hardly gives us anything. I think that a half inch or less is about all that most can expect, perhaps landing more in the one half to one inch range toward Ord and Lexington/Cozad/Gothenburg. It is starting to look apparent that most of any accumulating snow will remain north of Interstate 80. Still expecting some moderating temps after Monday/Tuesday, but still cool for this time of year as the upper level trough focuses its cold farther east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 This will be a quiet weather period with clear to mostly clear skies. If there are clouds they would likely just be a few high clouds. The wind will remain rather light and out of the southwest or west. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Heinlein LONG TERM...Heinlein AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 .UPDATE... As advertised, cooler and drier air has begun filtering into the region this evening in the wake of a cold front currently located over the southern peninsula. Temps have fallen into the low/mid 60s thus far across the Nature Coast while temps down south and closer to the front are still hovering in the upper 70s. Periods of rain behind the front are likely to continue through Saturday morning, affecting areas from the Nature Coast down through the central/southern peninsula through mid-morning before gradually dissipating by late morning/early afternoon. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will linger into the afternoon before gradually improving by evening. Winds will be a bit breezy owing to the gradient behind the front as high pressure builds into the state, particularly over coastal/offshore waters, while afternoon highs will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Friday. Existing forecast package looks to be on track with no adjustments necessary at this time. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 655 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019/ AVIATION... MVFR cigs expected for most of period with occasional IFR cigs most likely after 03Z as cold front moves south across peninsula. North/northeast winds 8 to 12 knots most of period with gusts to 18 knots after 15Z. Showers likely through 15-16Z across terminals before diminishing. Prev Discussion... /issued 203 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019/ DISCUSSION... A cold front extending west-southwest across northern FL and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico will slowly progress southeast through the day. The latest radar imagery is showing scattered showers already moving onshore just north of Tampa Bay and into the Nature Coast. This is lining up well with the current HRRR guidance which has the scattered showers moving through Tampa Bay and SW Florida between 21Z - 06Z. With increasing cloudiness and rain chances, the temps will be a little cooler than the past several days, but it will still feel very humid. High pressure will build in over the southeast U.S. behind the front, which will help bring in cooler and drier air mass on Saturday and Sunday. Atmospheric moisture will drop from around 1.6 inches today to around 0.5 - 0.7 inches on Saturday and Sunday making for a much more comfortable day for outdoor activities. Temps on Saturday will be 4-6 degrees below average before a gradual warm up on Sunday and into next week. A second cold front moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another chance of rain and storms. Models are indicating another shot of even cooler weather behind this front bringing temps down 6-10 degrees below average on Wednesday and Thursday next week. AVIATION... VFR conditions expected early afternoon with NNW winds less than 10 knots. A front approaches the region later today and will bring in some lowers CIGs, so have put periods of MVFR/IFR after 20Z as well as VCSH at all terminals. Winds will become a little more gusty in the wake of the front with NE winds in the 10-15 knot range expected toward the end of the period. MARINE... A cold front will move through the eastern gulf coast waters today bringing a chance of showers and storms. As the front shifts to south over southern Florida later this evening into early Saturday morning, high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. A tight pressure gradient between these 2 features will bring increasing northeast winds over the gulf coast waters, which has warranted the issuance of a SCA for the outer gulf coast waters north of Englewood, with Exercise Caution for all the other waters. Winds will decrease to less that 15 knots for Monday and Tuesday before the next front comes through next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will produce the next chance of showers and storms as well as increasing winds and seas on Wednesday and Thursday next week. FIRE WEATHER... A cold front moves across Florida with a chance of showers and storms through the day. Cooler and drier conditions filter in behind the front on Saturday and Sunday, but remaining above any fire weather threshold. No other fire weather concerns anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 64 77 60 80 / 50 10 0 0 FMY 68 80 64 83 / 40 20 0 0 GIF 65 77 59 81 / 50 10 0 0 SRQ 66 79 62 83 / 50 10 0 0 BKV 60 76 55 80 / 50 0 0 0 SPG 66 78 62 81 / 50 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...Hurt UPPER AIR...Sobien DECISION SUPPORT...Mroczka