Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/09/19
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Drier air is working over much of northern and eastern NM and will
result in VFR conditions persisting, with a couple possible
exceptions where sufficient near-surface moisture is hanging on.
KROW may deteriorate overnight to IFR in fog, but forecast confidence
is trending down given latest model guidance. Fog may redevelop in
the Rio Grande Valley late tonight as well, but should remain below
KAEG and KABQ thanks to the drying of the lower boundary layer
currently taking place. Otherwise, winds will generally be light
through the TAF period.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...159 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another area of fog and low clouds will redevelop over southeast New
Mexico tonight. Visibility may fall below one half mile in some areas
along the Pecos River Valley and the Caprock. Saturday will feature
much warmer temperatures with light winds and mostly sunny skies. A
back door cold front will move southwest into northeast New Mexico on
Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures. The remainder of the region
will stay warm and sunny with light winds. The cold front will surge
west through central New Mexico on Veterans Day with much colder air
and more low clouds for the eastern plains. Light snow is possible
near the Colorado border Monday morning. Temperatures will stay cool
into Tuesday before warming again Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level winds indicate a col pattern developing over central NM
as a sheared upper wave drifts northward into a weakening upper level
ridge. 21Z surface obs indicate low level moisture is struggling to
scour out from north to south with light winds and very weak mixing
beneath the col. Remnant low level moisture tonight will lead to
another round of low cigs and fog across the Pecos Valley and the
Caprock region. NAM, RAP, and HRRR Bufr profiles for KROW and KCVS
show fog development likely overnight so have expanded coverage area
from the lower Pecos to the Caprock. The HRRR was suggestive of fog
again in the middle/lower RGV and Estancia Valley but confidence was
too low to include at this time.
Saturday will be much warmer for the entire area with patchy high
clouds and light winds. The next back door cold front arrives Sunday
over eastern NM as a 1048mb surface high builds southward down the
Front Range. Temps will cool a few degrees in the east while central
and western NM remain mild with above normal readings. The cold front
will slide west through the RGV Sunday night and lead to much cooler
temperatures areawide for Veterans Day. Enough shallow moisture will
be present along and east of the central mt chain for another round
of low clouds, freezing fog, and perhaps some light snow along the
CO border. Temps will remain chilly through Tuesday before warming
again Wednesday.
Guyer
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent for the next 7
days, except for sub 15 percent humidities across much of the
northeast on Saturday afternoon. A gusty back door cold front will
dive southwestward across eastern areas late Sunday night and into
central and western areas on Monday. Moist, easterly, upslope flow
with the front could result in some very light precipitation along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and across the far
northeast plains late Sunday night and Monday.
After a warming trend today and Saturday pushes highs a few to 13
degrees above normal by Saturday afternoon, Sunday night/Monday`s
back door cold front will cause readings to plummet up to 16 degrees
below normal across central areas on Monday, and as much as 28
degrees below normal across the east. Readings will begin to rebound
in the east on Tuesday, but not until Wednesday in the west. Most
areas will experience poor ventilation this afternoon and Saturday,
except for pockets of improvement across the eastern plains Saturday
afternoon. Gusty west winds will develop Sunday across central and
southern areas leading to broader and stronger ventilation
improvement there, but vent rates will be fair to poor across the
north. After a mixed bag of vent rates with the crossing of Monday`s
front, widespread poor ventilation is again expected Tuesday through
the middle of next week.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
552 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019
As anticipated, the moderating of our temperatures continues into
Saturday, and we enjoy widespread agreement and consistency among
short and mid-range models for a very warm Saturday. The timing of
the approaching cold front from the north should help us reach near
our maximum potential for highs, barring any unforeseen thick
cirrus. The NAM appears to be a relatively cool outlier, which is
sometimes the case as it sometimes is a little too moist with pre-
frontal airmasses. I went with a combination of Bias corrected ARW
and HRRR and adjusting for recent cool bias recent warm day(s) that
we have had. This generally puts temperatures a bit above guidance
for highs tomorrow with highs near 70 to the mid 70s southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019
Overall synoptic pattern still looks like it is on track as the
amplification of the west coast/eastern Pacific ridge allows very
cold air to settle south into the eastern 2/3 to 3/4 of the United
States. Highs are still on track for only lower 40s for the tri-
cities on Sunday as plenty of stratus will move in behind the cold
front passing through Saturday night. All model solutions agree that
0.5 km AGL dewpoint depressions will support a completely stratus-
filled day and a stiff east northeast wind to accompany it. Monday
highs still look quite cold in the 20s, and perhaps some in our
north may have trouble breaking into the 20s, with a stiff north
wind. This would be considered quite a cold day in January, so
this is going to be particularly cold for this time of year and
is anomalous. By Monday night/Tuesday morning, I can say with good
confidence that the surface high will be nearby, and will be near
1040 mb, give or take, when it makes it into the central Plains.
This will support a very cold morning on Tuesday morning, with
lows in the single digits.
A second push of cold air arrives Sunday night along with a quick
shot of snow. The precipitation type is not in question as
conditions will be very cold throughout the vertical column of
air. I increased wind speeds significantly with strong cold air
advection anticipated.
Overall, models are going rather light with precipitation amounts
for Sunday night, and keeping higher qpf to the north and west of
the CWA. Considering the quick-hitting, northwest flow nature of
our synoptic pattern, the low amounts of snowfall in our forecast
will be continued in the half to one inch range. Even using the
higher ratio of the Kuchera method, the highest amounts that we
muster is 1.5 inches in the Ord area from the ECMWF, which is a
clear outlier compared to other solutions that are much lighter.
The NAM hardly gives us anything. I think that a half inch or less
is about all that most can expect, perhaps landing more in the one
half to one inch range toward Ord and Lexington/Cozad/Gothenburg.
It is starting to look apparent that most of any accumulating snow
will remain north of Interstate 80. Still expecting some
moderating temps after Monday/Tuesday, but still cool for this
time of year as the upper level trough focuses its cold farther
east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019
This will be a quiet weather period with clear to mostly clear
skies. If there are clouds they would likely just be a few high
clouds. The wind will remain rather light and out of the southwest
or west.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019
.UPDATE...
As advertised, cooler and drier air has begun filtering into the
region this evening in the wake of a cold front currently located
over the southern peninsula. Temps have fallen into the low/mid 60s
thus far across the Nature Coast while temps down south and closer
to the front are still hovering in the upper 70s. Periods of rain
behind the front are likely to continue through Saturday morning,
affecting areas from the Nature Coast down through the
central/southern peninsula through mid-morning before gradually
dissipating by late morning/early afternoon. Mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will linger into the afternoon before gradually
improving by evening. Winds will be a bit breezy owing to the
gradient behind the front as high pressure builds into the state,
particularly over coastal/offshore waters, while afternoon highs
will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Friday. Existing forecast
package looks to be on track with no adjustments necessary at this
time.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 655 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019/
AVIATION...
MVFR cigs expected for most of period with occasional IFR cigs
most likely after 03Z as cold front moves south across peninsula.
North/northeast winds 8 to 12 knots most of period with gusts to
18 knots after 15Z. Showers likely through 15-16Z across terminals
before diminishing.
Prev Discussion... /issued 203 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019/
DISCUSSION...
A cold front extending west-southwest across northern FL and into
the northeast Gulf of Mexico will slowly progress southeast
through the day. The latest radar imagery is showing scattered
showers already moving onshore just north of Tampa Bay and into
the Nature Coast. This is lining up well with the current HRRR
guidance which has the scattered showers moving through Tampa Bay
and SW Florida between 21Z - 06Z. With increasing cloudiness and
rain chances, the temps will be a little cooler than the past
several days, but it will still feel very humid. High pressure
will build in over the southeast U.S. behind the front, which will
help bring in cooler and drier air mass on Saturday and Sunday.
Atmospheric moisture will drop from around 1.6 inches today to
around 0.5 - 0.7 inches on Saturday and Sunday making for a much
more comfortable day for outdoor activities. Temps on Saturday
will be 4-6 degrees below average before a gradual warm up on
Sunday and into next week. A second cold front moves in late
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another chance of rain and storms.
Models are indicating another shot of even cooler weather behind
this front bringing temps down 6-10 degrees below average on
Wednesday and Thursday next week.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected early afternoon with NNW winds less than 10
knots. A front approaches the region later today and will bring in
some lowers CIGs, so have put periods of MVFR/IFR after 20Z as well
as VCSH at all terminals. Winds will become a little more gusty in
the wake of the front with NE winds in the 10-15 knot range expected
toward the end of the period.
MARINE...
A cold front will move through the eastern gulf coast waters today
bringing a chance of showers and storms. As the front shifts to
south over southern Florida later this evening into early Saturday
morning, high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. A tight
pressure gradient between these 2 features will bring increasing
northeast winds over the gulf coast waters, which has warranted the
issuance of a SCA for the outer gulf coast waters north of
Englewood, with Exercise Caution for all the other waters. Winds
will decrease to less that 15 knots for Monday and Tuesday before
the next front comes through next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
produce the next chance of showers and storms as well as increasing
winds and seas on Wednesday and Thursday next week.
FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front moves across Florida with a chance of showers and
storms through the day. Cooler and drier conditions filter in behind
the front on Saturday and Sunday, but remaining above any fire
weather threshold. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 64 77 60 80 / 50 10 0 0
FMY 68 80 64 83 / 40 20 0 0
GIF 65 77 59 81 / 50 10 0 0
SRQ 66 79 62 83 / 50 10 0 0
BKV 60 76 55 80 / 50 0 0 0
SPG 66 78 62 81 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for Waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hurt
UPPER AIR...Sobien
DECISION SUPPORT...Mroczka