Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 .Overview...Today will be/was the warmest day for many across central Iowa. However, temperatures today and over the next week will continue to be well below normal for early November, especially this Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances are highest through tonight and then again Tuesday afternoon/evening with a small sliver of southern Iowa perhaps have a shot Wednesday night. .Details...Early afternoon upper level water vapor imagery from GOES-East showed a fast moving shortwave over the state that was continuing to move eastward. While clouds were plentiful over the state, light precipitation was just beginning to be reported over central Iowa. 12z KOAX RAOB showed a good deal of dry air below 700mb with the lowest 1 km very dry. More recently, 18z model cross sections depict this dry air below 2km over southern Iowa and less so over northern Iowa. Deep saturation should occur within the next few hours with light rain expected over parts of the northern half of Iowa and perhaps as far south as the Interstate 80 corridor. This rain will lift and become focused over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota tonight as low pressure passes north of the state. Soundings show that the low level air is too warm for any snow until the precipitation begins to wind down toward and after midnight tonight with perhaps a dusting in few locations. Trailing behind the low pressure will be a front that will drop through the state overnight. This will bring gusty breezes from the northwest on Monday and slightly cooler air as well. Models, namely CONSShort and RAP, also hinting at some light precipitation coming down in the broad northwest/west flow aloft later tomorrow. Cross sections from the NAM show a shallow saturated layer, but that deepens at night. At this time, have confined any mention to the evening hours as sprinkles or flurries, but these may need to be backed up into the afternoon hours over northern Iowa if recent runs of the HRRR start to have agreement among other guidance. The next chance for precipitation will arrive Tuesday afternoon into the evening as warm air advection coincides with QG convergence. While current forecast has mainly rain during the day that transitions to snow at night, NAM and GFS soundings do hold the potential for more time for the precipitation to be snow over northern Iowa. Both have a dry near surface layer and with the wet bulb temperature below or near freezing, this could result in wet bulbing and more time as snow. Any snow accumulations still look quite minor and likely an inch or less Precipitation chances late Wednesday into Thursday look to remain largely south of the state. Upper level low in GOES East imagery off the California coast will move eastward early this week with broad moisture return into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, a sprawling, 1040mb zone of high pressure will be dropping southeastward into our region. This high will help to keep most of the precipitation south of the state, but southern Iowa could be brushed with some light precipitation. A quick shot of colder air will affect the area Thursday and Friday with highs mainly in the 30s. As the high moves off to the east, heights will rise this weekend with temperatures back into the 40s to perhaps low 50s in some spots. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/ Issued at 625 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Some light rain showers around this evening, and will linger through late evening before diminishing late tonight. May see some light snow mix in at times by late evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise CIGS to remain in the VFR to potentially MVFR range overnight, then may have low MVFR stratus in place through much of Monday. Winds to become more westerly to northwesterly through tonight and could be gusty at times Monday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Beerends
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
315 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low remains just off of southern California. This keeps bringing slightly moist and warm air into the region. The weather pattern changes on Tuesday night and Wednesday when this system starts moving to the east leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Late this week, an area of high pressure develops over the western United States, but a short-wave trough may bring some rain chances on Saturday before drier weather returns on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... The split flow continues across western US. We are being affected by the southern branch of this flow which is bringing warm and moist air. This led to some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning as a shortwave embedded with the main flow provided enough dynamics to get those showers going mostly south of the border. Currently, satellite imagery continues to track high clouds moving through the region along with some convective activity in Chihuahua. However, short-term models are not indicating rain chances across the CWA tonight. The HRRR and the NAM are keeping all of the convection to the south in Mexico, but I can`t rule out a few sprinkles, especially over Hudspeth county. The warm air coming from the southwest will lead to an increase in temperatures over the next couple of days. Max temps are expected to be in the upper 70s in the lowlands by tomorrow and Tuesday. This scenario persists as a closed upper low sits just off of the southern California coast. The unstable and more moist airmass at the mid levels will be pulled into the region as the closed upper low starts moving east over the Southwest Deserts. Precipitable water goes up from around half an inch on Tuesday morning to around an inch by Tuesday night. Surface dewpoints also go up as the southerly flow in the lower levels brings air from the Gulf of Mexico. The closed low becomes an open waves and moves through the area on Wednesday. As we have enough moisture in place along with the unstable air. MUCAPE values appear to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along with LI`s between -2 and -4C, and rather steep lapse rates. Also we are seeing some good dynamics as we have some diffluence in the upper levels ahead of the trough, as well as a weak upper jet developing along this feature on Wednesday. Prog soundings are showing a good veering profile and 0-6 km shear between 40 to 50 kts. This is a good pattern for a chance for severe storms and for the development of large hail. However, there is still the possibility of a cloud deck forming ahead of Wednesday afternoon which would reduce the chances for severe storms due to a lack of heat during the day. The GFS and the ECMWF have some disagreement as to how fast the system leaves the region. The GFS has the system along with the rain chances lingering through Thursday, while the EC has everything out by Thursday morning. So, I reduced the POPs across the region, especially over the western portions of the CWA to account for both solutions. Right behind this system an upper high pressure develops over western US which would set a northwesterly flow over the Borderland. A back door cold front moves pushes through at the same time. This will bring temperatures back down a few degrees. The presence of the high pressure won`t stop the passage of a shortwave on Saturday bringing back more rain chances into the area, before quiet weather prevails again across the area on Sunday and early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid 04/00Z-05/00Z... VFR conditions at all terminals. Skies FEW-BKN250, FEW-SCT150. Winds S/SW at 5-10 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper level low pressure sitting over southern California has aided in minor ridging aloft this afternoon. The southwest flow is streaming in subtropical moisture manifesting in mid/high-level clouds. As the low pushes east over the next few days, low level moisture will slowly increase, raising dewpoints and RH. Min RH on Monday will be the lowest of the week, ranging from lower teens to upper 20s under light wind. Min RH raises into the 20-30 percent range on Tuesday, and will stay above 30 percent for the rest of the week. Winds will continue to be on the light side through Wednesday. Warmer weather each day today through Tuesday. Mixing heights will slowly increase, but transport winds stay fairly light, keeping vent rates down. The upper low approaches the Borderland overnight on Tuesday, bringing increased rain and thunderstorm chances through the day on Wednesday. Models show a backdoor "cool" front pushes through the area on Thursday (though temperatures won`t drop much behind the front) bringing the chance for a breezy afternoon depending on frontal passage timing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 49 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 66 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 73 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 78 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 49 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 45 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 47 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 44 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 73 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 37 72 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 74 28 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 78 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 76 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 75 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 25 76 29 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 75 28 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 76 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 45 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 29- Crespo/ 33- Reynolds
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 .AVIATION... The southerly winds continue to show a steady surge in surface dewpoints across the area. Visible imagery shows a small cu field over the middle Texas coast indicative of some low level moisture trying to make its return into our CWA. With that in mind and the model MOS still divided on whether or not tonight will see some MVFR ceilings, stuck with the previous forecast with a tempo group of some MVFR in AUS by morning and SCT group of low stratus at SAT/SSF. Both the RAP and HRRR shows the boundary layer surge of 70 percent RH happening from the coast, but that percent is still on that borderline mark on where I would be comfortable including prevailing MVFR for the sites. Will wait for the 00z runs of MOS and the latest short term models later this evening for possible uptick on MVFR for the 06Z taf issuance. Cross sections for tomorrow show some high clouds and SCT/BKN 035-050 across AUS/SAT/SSF. DRT should remain fairly clear except some high cirrus. Late Mon night into Tue does show a fairly widespread MVFR/IFR event with dewpoints well back into the mid 60s. Winds will remain southerly for the most part, backing a bit to east Mon night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... Run to run trends of the models indicate more low level dry air has to be replaced in order for a mostly cloudy morning to occur Monday. Areas east of a line from Austin to Cuero have a better chance to see morning low cloudiness with only a brief stratus episode expected to form just after daybreak over central counties. The later arrival of higher dew points means that evening temps should cool faster and could lead to min Monday morning temps a degree or two cooler than projected by blended guidances, which had trended warmer in recent runs. Portions of the Coastal Prairies may not see much clearing on Monday, so afternoon temps may struggle to get out of the mid 70s there while areas west of San Antonio could see low 80s. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... A weak cold front becomes partially hung up over Central TX Tuesday while increasing surface pressures over East TX eventually build south and wash out the kink in the front Tuesday night. With southwest flow aloft tapping in to more tropical Pacific air, a light overrunning pattern develops with mostly cloudy skies and some scattered light showers and possibly a storm or two. GFS pwat trends are coming in drier to indicate more influence of the surface high, so expect to see only a few areas to see more than 1/10 inch through Wednesday. A more formidable cold front enters North TX late Thursday and is through all areas by Friday morning. Model timing is still not in good agreement with the GFS solution slower than the ECM/CMC. At this time prefer the faster solution which also leads to lower rainfall totals which would look similar to the past front that went through Wednesday. This front should be strong enough to kill the rain chances by around midday Friday, but doesn`t look to have the strength to drop temperatures nearly as cold as the previous one. Expect just a small portion of northern counties to see mid 30s Saturday morning, with low to mid 40s expected across most areas. Cool and dry conditions carry over into next weekend, but there could be some more overrunning Pacific clouds that could dampen diurnal temperature spreads. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 53 77 59 76 59 / 0 0 0 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 78 59 77 57 / 0 0 0 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 79 59 77 58 / 0 0 0 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 51 76 56 73 57 / 0 0 - 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 51 82 61 79 65 / 0 0 - 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 51 76 57 75 57 / 0 0 - 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 51 81 61 80 62 / 0 0 0 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 51 79 58 77 57 / 0 0 0 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 76 59 76 57 / 0 0 0 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 54 79 61 77 61 / 0 0 0 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 53 79 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...09 Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen