Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/30/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1115 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild conditions through Thursday. Showers will overspread the
area Thursday with a widespread soaking rainfall Thursday night.
It will become windy Friday and turn much cooler for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
11pm update - Adjusted temperatures to reflect the mild air
still in place under the stratocumulus deck. NYS mesonet and
ASOS stations show many sites still in the low to mid 50s and
newest guidance shows temperatures remaining steady overnight.
As a result, we also adjusted temperatures to better match the
12z ECMWF MOS guidance which is handling the temperature trends
the best. Morning low temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 40s to low 50s which is 15-20 degrees warmer than normal
for late October and is better fit for daytime highs than early
A.M lows. Other than, reduced POPs in Litchfield County, CT and
the Berkshires from low end chance to slight chance tonight
given low confidence on light rain/drizzle coverage.
Previous discussion: As of 7:45PM, GOES16 nighttime fog channel
showing stratocumulus clouds becoming more widespread through
the region as southerly flow around high pressure positioned off
the New England coast continues to advect in moisture off the
Atlantic. Cloud ceilings expected to lower through the night as
moisture continues to stream inland and become trapped
underneath the inversion, similar to last night. Clouds should
become the lowest in the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills and mid-
Hudson Valley.
HRRR shows potential for very light rain and/or drizzle possible
mainly for NW CT and the Berkshire where the onshore flow should
have the most influence. Also a few showers are possible into
the southern Adirondacks as a cold front approaches from the
Great Lakes Region. Temperatures tonight will stay rather mild
thanks to the cloud coverage and weak warm air advection. Lows
are forecast to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s which is
about 15 degrees above normal for late October.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A potent low pressure system with impact the region Thursday into
Friday with a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and strong
and gusty winds.
Wednesday the surface ridge dissipates across the area and an
inverted surface trough develops offshore which should extend
inland. Also a cold front will be gradually approaching from the
west. Thus expecting cloudy conditions with the threat for some
showers to the south and east of the Capital District. The
approaching front stalls as cyclogenesis commences Wednesday
night across the lower Mississippi Valley as an upper low cuts
off. It then becomes negatively tilted as it moves across the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region Thursday and Thursday night.
The low level jet will increase markedly east of the low center.
The GEFS and SREF indicate the following anomalies: +5-6SD for
850 moisture flux, +3-4SD PWAT, +3-4SD 850 winds and +1- 2SD
850T ahead of the system`s aggressive cold front which is
forecast to sweep across the local area Thursday night. Guidance
continues to indicate a very strong 850 mb jet of 55 to 75
knots ahead of the cold front. It will not take much to mix
strong wind to the surface and a cold frontal rainband is
possible. Showalter values are forecast to drop to around zero.
There continues to be uncertainty with respect to the exact
track of the storm, but generally looking at the Ohio Valley
across the Great Lakes Region into eastern Canada.
Mild day Thursday with increasing chances for showers in the
morning with widespread showers for the afternoon. Rain will
come down heavy at times Thursday night with the bulk of the QPF
occurring. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches expected,
however there are still uncertainties expected QPF. The Weather
Prediction Center has an excessive rainfall outlook for the area
for Day 3. Please refer to the hydrology section for the
flooding threat.
Southerly flow will increase Thursday night and will become
gusty with the flow shifting more to the southwest as the cold
front moves in.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main hazard for the long term period will be potentially strong
winds on Friday as a vertically stacked closed low exits the
region and strong winds develop in its wake. Winds could reach
wind advisory criteria, especially in the Mohawk Valley,
Adirondacks and Berkshires. Read on for details.
We start the long term off 12z Friday with an occluded/mature ~990hPa
low tracking up the Saint Lawrence River Valley and its potent
cold front quickly sweeping through the region. Strong pressure
rises are noted behind the cold front with the GFS showing
6-hourly pressure rises ranging 8-11hPa through 18z Friday.
Since the low is occluded, the system`s dry slot should reach
into the ALY CWA Friday morning behind the front and provide an
opportunity for strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
Given this set-up plus the fact that the winds are expected to
be from the west, we have enhanced the wind gusts down the
Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and the Berkshires which
traditionally experience the strongest winds under these flow
and synoptic regimes. For now, we have peak wind gusts up to
35-45mph in the latest forecast which would meet wind advisory
criteria. We will continue to monitor model trends in the coming
days and issue any wind products as necessary.
Besides the winds, rain Friday morning should quickly exit from west
to east behind the departing cold front and temperatures
through the day should actually drop. In fact, we have placed
the high temperature for the day at 12z Friday and show
temperatures staying steady in the upper 40s to low 50s before
falling into the 40s through the afternoon due to strong cold
air advection.
Surface high pressure builds from the mid-Atlantic northward into the
Northeast Friday night into Saturday which should allow winds
to decrease. Ridging builds aloft which should keep skies mostly
clear but the breeze should impede temperatures from becoming
too chilly. Right now, expecting lows Fri night to only fall
into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
High pressure remains in control Saturday leading to a pleasant start
to the weekend and final day of Daylight Savings Time.
Temperatures should remain seasonable in the upper 40s to low
50s under mostly sunny skies. However, a potent trough looks to
swing through the region and become negatively tilted. Its
associated surface cold front looks to move through Saturday
night and although the front is rather moisture starved with
limited moisture at 700hPA, it should usher a much cooler air
mass into the Northeast. 850hPa isotherms on Sunday decrease
through the day due to strong cold air advection and with 850hPa
isotherms between -6C and -8C moving over the warm ~11C Lake
Ontario waters (according to GLERL), guidance is in good
agreement that the critical 13C threshold should be surpassed
leading to lake effect showers for the Adirondacks. Temperatures
initially in the Adirondacks look to be mild enough during the
day to support mainly rain but after 18z, temperatures above
2kft may support a rain/snow mix before becoming mainly wet snow
showers by sunset. Elsewhere should be dry and chillier than
normal on Sunday. The window of opportunity for lake effect snow
showers looks to be limited though as high pressure and ridging
build into the region Sunday night which should "shut off" the
lake effect showers. Overnight lows should turn chilly as skies
clear and winds decrease, leading to the first night with
widespread freezing temperatures. Temperatures by Monday morning
should fall into the upper 20s to near 32 throughout eastern NY
and western New England.
Monday should be dry as high pressure takes back control but
chilly as most areas likely remain near or below 50F. The next
chance for rain looks to arrive Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOES16 nighttime fog channel showing stratocumulus
clouds becoming more widespread through the region as southerly
flow keeps onshore flow in place. Ceiling heights have responded
at POU and especially PSF which have remained steadily MVFR
with PSF varying between IFR and MVFR ceilings. ALB and GFL have
remained VFR and should so through 04z/30.
Ceiling heights are expected to lower towards 04z/30 - 06z/30
leading to more persistent IFR ceilings at PSF and POU and MVFR
at GFL and ALB. Occasional drizzle is possible at PSF and POU
but omitted it at this time given uncertainty. For now, only
reduced visibility to MVFR levels due to BR.
As mixing improves Wednesday morning, expected IFR ceilings to
become MVFR at PSF and POU and VFR at ALB and GFL by 15z/30.
However, we expect MVFR ceilings to persist through 00z
Thursday.
Winds will be light and variable through the entire TAF period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Coverage of showers will increase Thursday, with a widespread
soaking rainfall through Thursday night.&&
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will bring rainfall to the region late Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The heaviest rainfall will occur
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Storm total rainfall
amounts will be 1 to 3 inches, with the heaviest totals across
the Adirondacks and into southern Vermont. The rainfall will
result in rises on area waterways, with river flooding a
possibility. The greatest threat for river flooding will be for
areas north of Interstate 90. Some minor flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas is also possible. There is a marginal to
slight risk for flash flooding, especially within urban areas.
A Flood Watch will likely be needed.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.CLIMATE...
October rainfall through the 28th:
Albany NY: 6.71 inches (+3.38 inches).
Wettest on record 13.49 inches 1869 and 2nd wettest 9.00 inches 2005.
We need to get another 0.19 inches this month to make it into
the top 10 so looks like October 2019 will make into the record
books.
Glens Falls NY: 6.27 inches (+3.10 inches).
Wettest on record 8.49 inches 2005. So far October 2019 is the
7th wettest on record with more rain on the way.
Poughkeepsie NY: 4.57 inches (+0.50 inches).
Wettest on record 17.59 inches 2005. We need to get another 1.03
inches this month to make it into the top 10 so it`s possible.
Bennington VT: 5.82 inches (+2.42 inches)
Pittsfield MA: 7.75 inches (+3.34 inches)
For more climate data/records go to our climate page:
www.weather.gov/climate
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...JPV/Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
906 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
Made some adjustments to POPs and sky cover, increasing both
through tonight for parts of north-central Minnesota. Moist and
cool low levels advecting across warm inland lakes is leading to
some light snow down-wind of Red Lake, and additional snowfall is
possible downwind (to the east-northeast of) other larger inland
lakes like Leech Lake tonight into Wednesday. Little snowfall
accumulation is anticipated, less than an inch, and any
accumulations are likely to be very localized.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
The forecast focus in the short term will be on cloud cover and
its affect on temperatures. An upper level trough axis will move
over the Northland tonight and remain there through Wednesday
night. There were clouds over far northwest portions of the area
and there are questions how far east they will make it tonight as
the trough axis moves further east. The RAP has a decent handle on
the clouds, although it may be a bit fast. It suggests an
increase in clouds to the east late tonight over much of far
northern Minnesota. There will be flurries possible under any of
the thicker clouds tonight with a chance for light lake effect
snow east of the larger inland lakes, especially Red Lake. We have
higher POPs east of Red Lake with some light snow accumulation.
850MB temperatures will be from -10C to -14C tonight creating
favorable delta-T values but the lack of deeper moisture will be a
limiting factor. We lowered temperatures in spots tonight and
have lower teens to around 20 across the area. If the Iron Range
and Arrowhead remain cloud free through most of the night, lows
could be even lower.
Clouds will increase on Wednesday but there will still be breaks,
especially over far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Highs will remain well below normal and only reach the 30 to 36.
Clouds are expected to decrease Wednesday night as low level
ridging develops and it will again be cold with lows in the
teens with some of the traditionally colder areas possibly
reaching the single digits.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
Dry Thursday then a chance of rain and snow showers by Friday
afternoon which will linger through Saturday. A more active
period is expected Sunday through early next week with frequent
precipitation chances. Daytime temperatures will be below normal
through the long-term with overnight lows near normal.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will keep conditions
quiet on Thursday. Winds will veer southerly during the day as
the ridge axis slides to the east. A shortwave trough will move
out of the Dakotas and into Minnesota Thursday night continue
eastward through Friday night as a cool front moves through
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northwest Ontario. Low-level
convergence and falling heights aloft should support rain and
snow showers over the Northland Friday. A second shortwave trough
will move through the region Friday night and will keep a chance
of snow showers in the picture Friday night and Saturday. Lake
effect snow is possible for the Bayfield Peninsula and portions
of Ashland and Iron counties. Have raised POPs in these areas due
to the northwesterly flow over the lake, warm lake temperatures,
and cool 850 mb temperatures around -10 to -12 degrees C. By
Saturday, the surface trough and cool front will push east out of
the region. Cool cyclonic flow will will keep a potential for
rain and snow showers in play through Saturday. A brief period of
surface ridging will develop by Saturday afternoon and early
evening, which will provide a few hours of dry conditions before
the next wave moves into the area on Sunday.
Another shortwave trough will pass over the Northland Sunday into
Monday and should provide enough lift for scattered rain and snow
showers. An Alberta Clipper may pass through the region Monday
night into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites.
A mix of clear skies and mid-level VFR clouds through the forecast
period with west winds 5 to 10 knots. There is some inland lake
lake-effect snow showers going on downwind of some of the larger
lakes in northern Minnesota like Red Lake, but snow bands from
these inland lakes are not anticipated to impact any of the
forecast terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
As forecast, southwest winds around 18-22 knots are occurring
across the south shore leading to building waves and dangerous
conditions for small craft. These winds will weaken late tonight
into Wednesday morning, with a west wind around 10 to 15 knots
persisting through Wednesday across western Lake Superior. Winds
then become weaker Wednesday night through Thursday, around 5
knots or less. Stronger northwest winds late-week into the weekend
may lead to larger waves along the south shore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 34 18 35 / 0 0 0 0
INL 19 31 13 35 / 20 10 0 0
BRD 16 33 16 36 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 13 35 15 35 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 14 36 18 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ145-146.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...JJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
742 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019
Just completed an update. Complicated and slowly evolving scenario
occurring but overall the forecast is progressing as expected. Mid
level trough is in the process of getting organized and will
consolidate near/just east of our area. At the same time right
rear quadrant will be on top of this setting up deep lift.
First change was to add some brief freezing rain to the forecast
for the southeast third of the area ahead of the organizing
trough. Earlier there was some brief freezing further north along
Interstate 70. 00z DDC showed no ice in the column and supports
this area of freezing rain this evening.
For the rest of the night, snow should increase in area and
intensity, mainly over the northwest half, beginning this evening
and then should move and redevelop over the southeast third after
midnight. So kept the snowfall the same in the northwest half,
decreased it a little in the south central, and raised amounts a
little in the southeast per the above reasoning.
Also adjusted overnight temperatures and winds per latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis showed a closed low
moving from southern Idaho to northern Utah this morning and early
afternoon. The trough associated with this system extended across
much of the western CONUS, placing the tri-state region under
southwest flow aloft. Ahead of this disturbance, cloud cover
increased across the region through the day as light snow developed
in eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Northeast winds were
observed at 10 to 20 mph. At 1 PM MDT, temperatures ranged in the
20s to low 30s.
For tonight, the closed low should make its eastward turn and
track from Utah into Colorado. Moderate to heavy snowfall is
expected during this time, along with hazardous travel conditions.
Am planning to keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory in place as is. Have not made any major changes to
snowfall totals at this time and the overall forecast appears to
be on track. Temperatures mainly fall into the single digits and
teens overnight.
Snow chances linger into Wednesday as the storm tracks from Colorado
to Kansas. Snow chances then exit the region from west to east
through the afternoon. With northerly winds at 15 to 25 mph, blowing
snow may become a concern, particularly south of Interstate 70 where
winds could gust 25 to 35 mph. Cold temperatures prevail, with highs
only reaching into the upper teens to upper 20s.
Dry conditions are forecast Wednesday night, with low temperatures
ranging from the single digits below zero to the single digits above
zero (with the coldest temperatures in eastern Colorado). To make
matters worse, wind chill values range in the teens below zero to
the single digits below zero. Will need to monitor this temperature
forecast in the coming day to see if even colder temperatures will
be possible due to snow cover.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019
A warming and dry trend is on tap for the region during the extended
period. With the passage of the shortwave from the midweek system,
models build an amplified upper ridge over most of the western
portion of the country, extending into the west-central Rockies. The
upper ridge remains in place during this time, allowing for a
persistent WNW upper flow. There will be a couple weak shortwaves
the will traverse the east side of the upper ridge, but will stay
north of the CWA. Surface high pressure will shift over the area
during this time as well...keeping low level moisture at a minimum.
At most, the area will see increased cloud cover, especially
along/north of Highway 36.
There will be some lingering low wind chill readings in the minus 10
to minus 15 range for western portions of the CWA before daytime
heating takes over. This is covered well by the current Wind Chill
Advisory.
As the surface ridge shifts east of the CWA, some WAA on southerly
return flow will aid the downslope WNW upper flow to provide a
gradual warming trend, as compared with the expected highs from this
Thursday into next Tuesday.
For temps...daytime highs Thursday will range from the upper 30s
west...to the lower 40s east. By Friday, upper 30s to mid 40s. Going
into the upcoming weekend, mainly 40s on Saturday, 50s on Sunday,
then mainly 50s for next Monday/Tuesday. Some upper 40s west
possible on Monday. Overnight lows will have mainly teens
Thursday/Friday nights under clear skies. By the weekend, mainly
20s, which will extend to most locales going into next week. The
only caveat to the above numbers in the first couple of days will be
any lingering snowpack, which could lower temps by a few degrees,
especially at night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019
For Kgld, ifr conditions will become mvfr at 03z and this will
continue until 22z. Then vfr conditions will return at 22z.
Northeast winds near 13 knots will shift to the north at 14
knots at 16z. At 20z the winds will shift to the northwest 15
knots with gusts to 23 knots through the afternoon.
For Kmck, mvfr conditions are expected 20z when vfr conditions
return. Northeast winds near 12 knots will shift to the north at
12z at near 12 knots will continue until 20z. At 20z the winds
will shift to the northwest near 12 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ092.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ090-091.
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 7 AM MDT Thursday for
COZ090>092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
940 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019
.UPDATE...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms streaming northeast
across much of north Texas this evening. Convection to gradually
shift east throughout the overnight hours with a frontal boundary
that extends from Lufkin to Texarkana. Isentropic lift combined
with ripples in the mean overall southwest flow aloft to be the
main catalyst for convection. At the surface, fog will become
prevalant across much of the region, especially across areas east
of the frontal boundary. At this time, went ahead and added
patchy fog wording areawide. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
/05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/
AVIATION...
A cold front across the ArkLaTex will contribute to widespread
showers overnight through much of the day Wednesday. Isolated
thunderstorms may be possible after 30/18Z. Otherwise, ceilings
and vsbys to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR overnight with only gradual
improvement to MVFR/IFR on Wednesday. Otherwise, light east winds
overnight to become northwest, increasing to 10 to 15 knots and
gusty across east Texas, on Wednesday as high pressure builds
behind the cold front. /05/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/
The latest mid-level analysis indicates east Texas, northern
Louisiana, southwestern Arkansas, and southeastern Oklahoma in a
southwesterly 500mb flow well in advance of a closed low and its
associated trough digging into the Intermountain West. Isentropic
lift at 300K is providing forcing for showers and thunderstorms
upstream in Deep East Texas with scattered showers beginning to
develop in northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas. At
the surface, a cold front extends from the northeast from the
Missouri Valley and into our area across the ArkLaTex. Right now,
the front is best defined by a northerly to northeasterly wind
shift with broad thermal/isodrosothermal gradients along the
front.
This evening, the chance of showers will increase as the temp/dew
point gradients begin to tighten along a frontal boundary that
will be slow to make any further southeastward progression.
Isentropic lift shifting into the area along with weak vort energy
with ripples in the mid-level flow will contribute to forcing for
showers. The RAP indicates that a wedge of weak surface-based
instability will work its way into Deep East Texas this afternoon.
With 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE in this area, anticipate the best
chance for thunderstorms in this area as isentropic lift moves
into the area. A lesser chance is anticipated in East Texas and
southeastern Oklahoma with weak elevated instability in these
locations. The latest HRRR simulated radar solution indicates
scattered showers continuing to move northeastward across
northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas through the
overnight hours.
For tomorrow and tomorrow night, frontogenesis will continue as
the thermal gradient tightens with cold air advecting in behind a
slow moving frontal boundary and some warm air advection ahead of
this feature. Models are indicating moderate shear along with weak
elevated instability across the area with surface-based
instability along and southeast of the front extending from a line
from Lufkin to Shreveport to El Dorado. With this in mind, there
is a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon with peak
heating, with the best chance for Deep East Texas and central
Louisiana. This will be highly dependent on the positioning of
the front, which currently looks to remain straddled over the
region.
For temps, lows tonight will range from the upper 40s in McCurtain
County to the mid 60s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana.
The thermal gradient along the front will be most noticeable on
Wednesday along the front with highs range from the upper 50s
northwest of the I-30 corridor to near 80 in central Louisiana.
The cold front will make it southeastward progression on Wednesday
night, allowing for a potential freeze for locations northwest of
I-30 with low ranging from near freezing there to the mid 40s in
central Louisiana. /04-Woodrum/
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/
Deep upper trof axis to be traversing the Southern Plains/Lower MS
River Valley Thursday morning. Associated cold front will be well
ahead of the trof axis and well e of our region by this time.
Lingering shwrs may still be ongoing across the far ern and sern
areas of our CWA, but these will quickly come to an end prior to
midday. Strong CAA will continue to usher in a very cold airmass,
and with lingering clouds, temps on Thursday will struggle to reach
50 degrees. Sfc high pressure to settle in over the region by
Thursday night, allowing temps to plummet into the mid 20s to mid
30s areawide. Much of the region will be in danger of seeing temps
falling to near freezing, with portions of far NE TX/SW AR/SE OK
dipping into the 20s.
Temperatures well below normal are fcst to continue through the
weekend, as another trof and dry, reinforcing shot of cold air come
Saturday. Temps will begin a gradual warming trend, although still
remaining below-normal, into early next work week ahead of our next
storm system. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 72 39 51 / 80 90 90 10
MLU 61 76 45 54 / 60 80 90 50
DEQ 55 62 34 50 / 90 90 80 10
TXK 58 62 37 49 / 90 90 90 10
ELD 57 67 39 52 / 80 90 90 20
TYR 56 60 34 50 / 80 90 80 10
GGG 60 66 36 50 / 80 90 90 10
LFK 63 73 39 52 / 60 90 80 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
05/04