Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/29/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019
.DISCUSSION...
The east coast sea breeze generated isolated storms over the
interior early this evening likely as a result of boundary
collisions with the larger lakes and finally with outflow from west
coast convection over Lake county. Atmosphere is quite moist but
warm temps aloft resulted in unimpressive lapse rates to limit
coverage and intensity of storms. Will hold onto a slight chance of
showers across the far western (Lake) and northern (Volusia) areas
into the early morning hours. Then mostly clear skies and very light
to calm winds may combine with full recovery of RH to produce some
patchy fog mainly over the interior. The HRRR is not bullish on this
scenario but the SREF probs show a 30 percent chance for at least
patchy fog focused along the Kissimmee River. If fog does develop,
it could be locally dense reducing visibilities 1 mile or less but
confidence is not high.
Min temps will remain much above normal in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours however patchy fog may produce IFR/MVFR
vis/cig reductions across the interior terminals (MCO/LEE/SFB) btwn
09-13Z. On Tue, SE winds 5 knots will become E/SE near 10 knots in
the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Favorable boating and mostly dry conditions will persist thru Tue. E
to SE winds 10 knots or less over the waters through Tue with seas 2-
3 feet, up to 4 feet well offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 87 73 87 / 20 40 30 40
MCO 73 89 73 89 / 20 40 10 40
MLB 75 87 75 88 / 10 30 30 30
VRB 73 88 74 88 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 74 89 73 89 / 30 40 10 40
SFB 73 89 73 89 / 20 40 10 40
ORL 75 89 74 88 / 20 40 10 40
FPR 72 88 74 88 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Kelly/Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
253 PM MDT Mon Oct 28 2019
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. An arctic cold front will
drop south through our area tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect
light snow for areas along the Montana Divide (1 to 3 inches),
the Snake River/Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands (1/2
inch to 2 inches). Most of this snow will come with a line along
the arctic cold front late tonight. Also, expect near wind
advisory winds overnight into tomorrow for the Snake River
plain/Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands. A special
weather statement is out for these areas. For the Big Hole
mountains to include Pine Creek pass, the Carbiou Range, Bear lake
Region, and the Wasatch mountains expect 4 to 8 inches of snow. A
winter weather advisory is in effect for these areas. Furthermore,
a wind chill warning has been issued for early tomorrow morning
into late tomorrow morning for the Beaverhead area/Clark county
and Island Park area/Fremont County areas for wind chill values
-20 to -25 degrees. These areas will be prone to breezier winds
and very cold temperatures as arctic air spills over the Montana
Divide. Snow will taper off over the Bear Lake region by late
afternoon tomorrow. Winds across the area will start to taper off
by late afternoon into early evening as well. Temperatures are
expected to be 20 to 25 degree below normal Tuesday afternoon
with no area reaching above freezing for the daytime
temperatures. For Wednesday morning most areas will get below
zero (around 30 degrees below normal) into the negatives to just
a few degrees above zero. Record low temperatures are expected
for most the area on Wednesday morning. Dry conditions and
overall light winds are expected Wednesday as high pressure
starts to build in from the west. Temperatures will again be well
below normal (around 20 degrees) on Wednesday during the day.
TWyatt
.LONG TERM...Halloween Day, Thursday, through next Monday. For
Halloween expect dry conditions with slightly breezy winds
especially late afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal,
around low thirties to mid thirties for most locations during the
late afternoon into early evening. Across our northeast areas by
Island Park and Dubois temperatures will be around the mid
twenties to upper twenties. Otherwise expect dry conditions for
all areas through the period in a overall light northerly to
northwesterly flow. Expect temperatures around 10 degrees below
normal on Thursday gradually warming to around normal by next
Monday.
TWyatt
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue
through about sunset at all terminals, with mid-high level clouds
remaining OVC and nudging lower with time. A low pressure system
and arctic cold front are forecast to drop N to S across the
forecast area this eve into the overnight hours, bringing a chance
of snow showers everywhere. The forecast progression of the front
will combine frontal lift with a wind-convergence-enhancement
zone to produce a more organized band of -SN along the front. We
used the hi-res HREF ensembles and HRRR guidance to try to time
this band out at KPIH/KIDA/KBYI with TEMPO groups. Otherwise,
confidence is not high enough to upgrade from VCSH for larger time
periods at this time. Believe some brief but decent snowfall
rates could bring vsbys down to IFR and cigs to MVFR for 1-3
hours, and we undercut MOS/NAM time- height guidance particularly
on vsbys in the TAFs. For KDIJ, -SN is likely to last longer, and
we upgraded to a FM group 03-08z with IFR cigs/vsbys likely (with
better support in the model guidance). Winds will turn into the N
behind the front and remain strong/gusty throughout the night into
most of Tues, likely setting up some crosswinds at all 4
terminals. KSUN will likely escape the brunt of these impacts,
with VFR conditions throughout the period and a largely diurnal
wind cycle. Winds may nudge into the SW this eve, but confidence
is low on crosswind potential.
KSmith
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Tuesday for IDZ060-061-063-064.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief lull in the wind today, while critical fire weather
concerns loom for Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather expected
through at least the next week with temperatures warming to a
little above average by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
With yesterday`s system all the way out into the Central High
Plains, gradients have briefly relaxed resulting in a significant
decrease in wind fields. The post-frontal air mass has kept
temperatures on the cooler side with the Valley staying in the
upper 60s to low 70s accompanied by very low relative humidities
(and dew points). While skies remain clear, some westerly
component to the wind will usher in patchy smoke from both
wildfires, the Kincade (Sonoma County) and Grizzly (Solano
County). The HRRR smoke loop brings some smoke generally along
I-80 potentially reaching areas of Davis and perhaps Sacramento.
A lull in the fire weather pattern is short with another event
unfolding for Tuesday morning into much of Wednesday. An upper low
with origins from the Arctic Ocean is currently crossing the
U.S./Canadian border as lower heights enter central Montana. Over
the course of the next 24 hours, a secondary trough peels off and
slides toward northern Utah. An impressive height gradient sets up
although it is much broader than the weekend system with the core
of height falls focused over the Central Great Basin. However, it
will still bring a period of strong, dry north to easterly winds
to the region accompanied by critical fire weather conditions. The
expected KSAC-KMFR pressure gradient will be around 10 mb which is
5 to 6 mb weaker than on Sunday.
From 8 AM Tuesday until 4 PM Wednesday, a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for a majority of interior Northern California.
Additional fire starts are possible with conditions supporting the
rapid spread of any new or existing fires. Relative humidities
will be extremely low, generally in the mid-single digits to low
teens during the day with very poor overnight recoveries. In
addition to the fire weather concerns, strong winds have prompted
the issuance of a Wind Advisory for much of the Sacramento Valley
into the Carquinez Strait and Delta region on Tuesday from 8 AM
through 11 PM. Power outages, downed trees which were weakened
from the weekend, as well as difficult driving conditions are all
possible. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight
hours and Wednesday morning with occasionally gusty easterly winds
lingering into Wednesday night over the Sierra foothills.
Overall, please exercise fire prevention techniques and have an
evacuation plan in place if a fire starts near you.
Heading into Thursday, the offshore ridge will edge closer to the
Pacific coast which brings an end to the active fire weather
pattern. However, humidities remain on the low side, albeit with
much lighter winds. High temperatures to remain slightly below to
around late October climatology while chilly overnights are
likely. Optimal radiational cooling conditions will be in place
with mid/upper 30s on Thursday morning which may support some
patchy frost. ~BRO
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
No major change from the previous forecast. Upper level high
pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and west coast will
dominate the weather pattern through the extended period. Winds
will generally be light under northerly flow around the high but
subsidence under the ridge will keep humidity values on the low
side for this time of year. Therefore, fire weather concerns will
be somewhat elevated compared to early November normals with no
precipitation in sight. Daytime highs Friday are forecast at near
or slightly above normal with a slow increase going into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Winds generally less than 10 knots through 15z Tuesday. Strong
winds expected across the Sacramento Valley, Delta region, Coastal
Mountains, and northern Sierra after 15z. Sustained winds 20 to
35 kt with gusts 30 to 45 kt expected through 06z Wednesday. &&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PDT Wednesday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn,
Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-
Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake
County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Motherlode From
1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador
and ElDorado Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama
County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San
Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Northern Sierra
Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-
Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra Including Lassen NP and
Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the Sierra Crest (West of Evans
Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the
Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West of the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge
Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-
Southern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of
Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-
Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County
Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF West of the Sierra Crest.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Carquinez
Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern
Lake County-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern
Lake County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern
Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area /
Northern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$