Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/29/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 .DISCUSSION... The east coast sea breeze generated isolated storms over the interior early this evening likely as a result of boundary collisions with the larger lakes and finally with outflow from west coast convection over Lake county. Atmosphere is quite moist but warm temps aloft resulted in unimpressive lapse rates to limit coverage and intensity of storms. Will hold onto a slight chance of showers across the far western (Lake) and northern (Volusia) areas into the early morning hours. Then mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds may combine with full recovery of RH to produce some patchy fog mainly over the interior. The HRRR is not bullish on this scenario but the SREF probs show a 30 percent chance for at least patchy fog focused along the Kissimmee River. If fog does develop, it could be locally dense reducing visibilities 1 mile or less but confidence is not high. Min temps will remain much above normal in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR next 24 hours however patchy fog may produce IFR/MVFR vis/cig reductions across the interior terminals (MCO/LEE/SFB) btwn 09-13Z. On Tue, SE winds 5 knots will become E/SE near 10 knots in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Favorable boating and mostly dry conditions will persist thru Tue. E to SE winds 10 knots or less over the waters through Tue with seas 2- 3 feet, up to 4 feet well offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 87 73 87 / 20 40 30 40 MCO 73 89 73 89 / 20 40 10 40 MLB 75 87 75 88 / 10 30 30 30 VRB 73 88 74 88 / 10 20 30 30 LEE 74 89 73 89 / 30 40 10 40 SFB 73 89 73 89 / 20 40 10 40 ORL 75 89 74 88 / 20 40 10 40 FPR 72 88 74 88 / 10 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Kelly/Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
253 PM MDT Mon Oct 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. An arctic cold front will drop south through our area tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect light snow for areas along the Montana Divide (1 to 3 inches), the Snake River/Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands (1/2 inch to 2 inches). Most of this snow will come with a line along the arctic cold front late tonight. Also, expect near wind advisory winds overnight into tomorrow for the Snake River plain/Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands. A special weather statement is out for these areas. For the Big Hole mountains to include Pine Creek pass, the Carbiou Range, Bear lake Region, and the Wasatch mountains expect 4 to 8 inches of snow. A winter weather advisory is in effect for these areas. Furthermore, a wind chill warning has been issued for early tomorrow morning into late tomorrow morning for the Beaverhead area/Clark county and Island Park area/Fremont County areas for wind chill values -20 to -25 degrees. These areas will be prone to breezier winds and very cold temperatures as arctic air spills over the Montana Divide. Snow will taper off over the Bear Lake region by late afternoon tomorrow. Winds across the area will start to taper off by late afternoon into early evening as well. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degree below normal Tuesday afternoon with no area reaching above freezing for the daytime temperatures. For Wednesday morning most areas will get below zero (around 30 degrees below normal) into the negatives to just a few degrees above zero. Record low temperatures are expected for most the area on Wednesday morning. Dry conditions and overall light winds are expected Wednesday as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Temperatures will again be well below normal (around 20 degrees) on Wednesday during the day. TWyatt .LONG TERM...Halloween Day, Thursday, through next Monday. For Halloween expect dry conditions with slightly breezy winds especially late afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal, around low thirties to mid thirties for most locations during the late afternoon into early evening. Across our northeast areas by Island Park and Dubois temperatures will be around the mid twenties to upper twenties. Otherwise expect dry conditions for all areas through the period in a overall light northerly to northwesterly flow. Expect temperatures around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday gradually warming to around normal by next Monday. TWyatt && .AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue through about sunset at all terminals, with mid-high level clouds remaining OVC and nudging lower with time. A low pressure system and arctic cold front are forecast to drop N to S across the forecast area this eve into the overnight hours, bringing a chance of snow showers everywhere. The forecast progression of the front will combine frontal lift with a wind-convergence-enhancement zone to produce a more organized band of -SN along the front. We used the hi-res HREF ensembles and HRRR guidance to try to time this band out at KPIH/KIDA/KBYI with TEMPO groups. Otherwise, confidence is not high enough to upgrade from VCSH for larger time periods at this time. Believe some brief but decent snowfall rates could bring vsbys down to IFR and cigs to MVFR for 1-3 hours, and we undercut MOS/NAM time- height guidance particularly on vsbys in the TAFs. For KDIJ, -SN is likely to last longer, and we upgraded to a FM group 03-08z with IFR cigs/vsbys likely (with better support in the model guidance). Winds will turn into the N behind the front and remain strong/gusty throughout the night into most of Tues, likely setting up some crosswinds at all 4 terminals. KSUN will likely escape the brunt of these impacts, with VFR conditions throughout the period and a largely diurnal wind cycle. Winds may nudge into the SW this eve, but confidence is low on crosswind potential. KSmith && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Tuesday for IDZ060-061-063-064. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A brief lull in the wind today, while critical fire weather concerns loom for Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather expected through at least the next week with temperatures warming to a little above average by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... With yesterday`s system all the way out into the Central High Plains, gradients have briefly relaxed resulting in a significant decrease in wind fields. The post-frontal air mass has kept temperatures on the cooler side with the Valley staying in the upper 60s to low 70s accompanied by very low relative humidities (and dew points). While skies remain clear, some westerly component to the wind will usher in patchy smoke from both wildfires, the Kincade (Sonoma County) and Grizzly (Solano County). The HRRR smoke loop brings some smoke generally along I-80 potentially reaching areas of Davis and perhaps Sacramento. A lull in the fire weather pattern is short with another event unfolding for Tuesday morning into much of Wednesday. An upper low with origins from the Arctic Ocean is currently crossing the U.S./Canadian border as lower heights enter central Montana. Over the course of the next 24 hours, a secondary trough peels off and slides toward northern Utah. An impressive height gradient sets up although it is much broader than the weekend system with the core of height falls focused over the Central Great Basin. However, it will still bring a period of strong, dry north to easterly winds to the region accompanied by critical fire weather conditions. The expected KSAC-KMFR pressure gradient will be around 10 mb which is 5 to 6 mb weaker than on Sunday. From 8 AM Tuesday until 4 PM Wednesday, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a majority of interior Northern California. Additional fire starts are possible with conditions supporting the rapid spread of any new or existing fires. Relative humidities will be extremely low, generally in the mid-single digits to low teens during the day with very poor overnight recoveries. In addition to the fire weather concerns, strong winds have prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory for much of the Sacramento Valley into the Carquinez Strait and Delta region on Tuesday from 8 AM through 11 PM. Power outages, downed trees which were weakened from the weekend, as well as difficult driving conditions are all possible. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight hours and Wednesday morning with occasionally gusty easterly winds lingering into Wednesday night over the Sierra foothills. Overall, please exercise fire prevention techniques and have an evacuation plan in place if a fire starts near you. Heading into Thursday, the offshore ridge will edge closer to the Pacific coast which brings an end to the active fire weather pattern. However, humidities remain on the low side, albeit with much lighter winds. High temperatures to remain slightly below to around late October climatology while chilly overnights are likely. Optimal radiational cooling conditions will be in place with mid/upper 30s on Thursday morning which may support some patchy frost. ~BRO && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... No major change from the previous forecast. Upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and west coast will dominate the weather pattern through the extended period. Winds will generally be light under northerly flow around the high but subsidence under the ridge will keep humidity values on the low side for this time of year. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be somewhat elevated compared to early November normals with no precipitation in sight. Daytime highs Friday are forecast at near or slightly above normal with a slow increase going into the weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds generally less than 10 knots through 15z Tuesday. Strong winds expected across the Sacramento Valley, Delta region, Coastal Mountains, and northern Sierra after 15z. Sustained winds 20 to 35 kt with gusts 30 to 45 kt expected through 06z Wednesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PDT Wednesday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft- Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta- Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West of the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit- Southern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo- Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF West of the Sierra Crest. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$