Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/21/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
923 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight will begin to weaken on
Monday. A frontal system will affect the area Monday night and
Tuesday. High pressure will rebuild late Tuesday through
Thursday before another storm system potentially moves in
Friday or Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The only meaningful change that was made for the late evening
update was the make adjustments to hourly temperatures and to
make further modifications to the overnight low forecast. The
few runs for the higher resolution guidance has backed off
slightly on the intensify of the thermal ridge noted in the
earlier discussion. The rest of the forecast was unchanged.
Fog: With wet grounds and light/calm winds expected to prevail,
the various model 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits progs
suggest there could a risk for fog/stratus late tonight,
especially over far interior Southeast and extending north into
Allendale and Hampton Counties in South Carolina where the
lowest values are forecast. However, with some model soundings
showing as much as 15 kt occurring in the 975-925 hPa layer, it
is unclear whether this will produce enough mechanical turbulence
atop the nocturnal inversion to favor stratus over fog. Indeed,
the various short-term statistical and probabilistic guidance
are all showing a number of possible scenarios ranging from
widespread dense fog west of the I-95 corridor to very little
fog or stratus. At this point, think the best course of action
is hold the forecast pretty much as is showing patchy fog and
stratus in the various sky and weather grids until a more
definitive trend begins to emerge. Did opt to include an "areas
of" qualifier to the fog across far interior Southeast Georgia
where both the H3R and RAP show 1000 hPa condensation pressure
deficits less than 15 hPa.
Temperatures: Modest radiational conditions will occur for much
of the night before fog/stratus begins to interrupt the
radiative process. Interestingly, the NAM12, RAP and H3R all
show some sort of boundary layer thermal ridge forming in the
Saint George-Givhans-West Ashley-Johns Island corridor after
midnight, which corresponds to about a 40 NM wide area of higher
surface temperatures. There is no apparent fog/stratus layer
noted in the various derived fields in this region with the
better fog/stratus parameter progged to occur well to the west
and southwest of this area, so it is unclear what is the cause
of this feature. Still, given the nearly unanimous agreement in
all three of the higher resolution guidance packages, will nudge
overnight lows up a few degrees in this area. It will be
interesting to see how/if this feature evolves overnight. Lows
will range from the upper 50s/near 60 well inland and over the
Francis Marion National Forest to the mid- upper 60s at the
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday: We maintained a dry forecast as deep layered dry air
persists above 850 MB for much of the region. Weak return flow
across far Southeast GA will extend west along the Gulf Coast
as a broad baroclinic zone will be in a genesis stage. Isolated
showers may develop just prior to sunset in our far southern GA
coastal zones, however we preferred onset of POPs to fall into the
Monday night period. Skies should become partly cloudy most areas by
afternoon with warm temps in the upper 70s to near 80 SC and lower
80s in GA.
Monday night and Tuesday: Deep moisture advection is forecast on
Monday night across the region as a warm front lifts north after
midnight. We continue to trend upward with rain chances late night
as models indicate a fairly extensive band of convective rains
advancing north. Temps will rise overnight with many of our minimum
temps likely occurring in the evening hours before clouds thicken
and showers increasing. On Tuesday, A deep long wave trough will
blanket much the U.S. east of the Rockies. Our area will see slow
but steady mid level height falls as a cold front advances through
the area reaching the coast in the afternoon. Showers and a few
tstms will accompany and precede the front. The risk of severe
weather does not look too impressive despite strong wind fields
aloft and warm low-level temps prior to fropa. Latest models show
instability parameters weakening during the afternoon hours as low
level dew points decrease in a mixing low level environment. Highs
will reach the lower to mid 80s most areas ahead of the front.
Wednesday: Dry and cooler conditions as high pressure builds over the
southeast states. Highs should only reach the lower to mid 70s from
north to south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry high pressure is expected to persist Wednesday night into
Thursday before a broad upper trough pattern brings potentially
unsettled weather into the weekend. There remain substantial
differences in the models regarding timing of features late in
the week. We expect an increase in rain chances beginning as
early as Thursday afternoon but more likely Friday into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS: VFR for much of the period. There are a few signals that a
brief period of MVFR cigs could occur shortly after midnight,
but confidence is in this scenario is quite low.
KSAV: VFR through about 06z with increased probabilities for
MVFR conditions. Shallow ground fog could occur as soon as 07z,
but this risk should end as some marine-based stratocumulus
moves inland from off the Atlantic and impacts the terminal.
These clouds will be around 2kft and will show a TEMPO group
11-14z to reflect this. Cigs should lift back to low-end VFR by
mid- morning with cigs lowering once again to MVFR during the
afternoon as another storm system begins to approach.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible Monday night
as a warm front lifts north through the area. Cigs could lower to
MVFR/IFR at times with increasing chances for showers. It should
become VFR on Tuesday with brief restrictions possible in convection
rains along a cold front. VFR expected mid week with chances for
increasing lower clouds and showers late week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: The last Small Craft Advisories have been allowed to
expire. West/northwest winds will back to the north/northeast
overnight as high pressure prevails in the wake of Nestor. Winds
will remain 10 kt or less with seas subsiding to 1-3 ft through
the night.
Monday through Friday: High pressure weakening to the northeast
will result in a light onshore flow Monday. The flow will veer
to southwest by early Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
through the waters. The surging will mainly be 15 kt or less. A
cold front will move into the waters late Tuesday with much
stronger surging Tuesday Night in cold air advection. We think
SCA conditions are likely over GA waters beyond 20 NM with the
best jetting occurring beyond 20 NM in northwest flow. There
could be some gusts to 25 kt within 20 NM, but SCAs are less
likely there. Winds will decrease during mid week as high
pressure builds north of the waters. The decreasing trend will
be short as onshore winds increase again by Thursday. Seas for
much of the week will be in the 2-4 ft range, highest offshore
with a period of higher seas likely near the Gulf Stream Tuesday
Night and early Wednesday in gusty northwest flow.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1048 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure
transitioning eastward across the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing east across
eastern Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Strong 540 dm cyclone was spinning over the Nebraska panhandle at
midday, and will continue to track east to near Sioux Falls,
South Dakota by sunrise Monday. This storm track is dryslotting SW
KS as expected, and all grids are dry. The Pacific cold front was
making progress eastward across the western zones as of midday,
with winds becoming NWly. NW winds will become modestly gusty
behind the frontal passage through the afternoon hours, gusting
30-35 mph, especially by late afternoon as the current mid/high
cloud canopy begins to clear west to east. The latest HRRR
iterations show the Pacific frontal boundary clearing Barber
county about 6 pm, with any convection east of our SE zones.
The NW winds will weaken temporarily for a few hours near sunset,
but increase again overnight, as the primary surge of NW winds
arrive. Models depict 850 mb NWly winds increasing to near 50 mph
around midnight. Much of this nocturnal momentum will not mix to
the surface, but some of it definitely will, and NW wind gusts of
30-35 mph are expected for several hours tonight. NW winds will
again relax somewhat for a few hours near sunrise. The winds will
keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent full radiational
cooling, with 30s west and 40s east sunrise Monday.
Strong NW winds will resume shortly after sunrise Monday, as full
sunshine will encourage mixing in the dry airmass. NW wind gusts
of 30-40 mph will be common across the NE 1/2 of SW KS daylight
Monday, with the strongest winds near Hays/I-70 nearest the
departing cyclone. NW winds will be much weaker across far SW KS.
850 mb temperatures are at their coolest Monday, but allowing for
full sunshine and NWly downslope momentum, afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 60s are still expected.
Monday night/Tuesday morning will be colder, as the radiational
cooling process improves with diminishing NW winds. Expecting 30s
all zones, at or below freezing across western zones.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Tuesday will be a spectacular autumn day, with full sunshine, much
less wind, and warmer temperatures in the upper 60s/near 70.
12z ECMWF indicates SW KS will remain in the warm sector on
Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s and lower
70s. An initial prefrontal trough is expected to bring a northerly
wind shift by afternoon, and the NBM wind grids picked up on this,
but little cold air advection is expected by these initial north
winds.
The true cold front will blast through SW KS Wednesday night with
very strong north winds. 12z ECMWF builds a 1035+mb surface high
north of Denver by sunrise Thursday, with an impressive pressure
gradient progged Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Used the
strongest wind guidance available, but fully expect that won`t be
enough. Wind gusts of 50-55 mph are expected. Upslope snow is
still shown by 12z ECMWF to hug the I-25 corridor, with 12z GFS
drier and more progressive. As expected, NBM pops for light rain
changing to light snow did increase on today`s model runs. A
frontogenetic band of light rain/snow is expected to spread
southward early Thursday, with 12z ECMWF QPF in the 0.10" range.
All to say, this will not be a major winter storm. Intense cold
north winds will be the primary impact Thursday morning.
A hard freeze looks like a lock Friday morning, with all models
showing a strong 1030mb surface ridge straddling SW KS and a
clearing sky. Many locations will fall well down into the 20s.
12z ECMWF develops a strong cutoff low over the Texas South Plains
by Friday evening, with associated rain south of SW KS. ECMWF
suggests rain from this cyclone`s deformation zone may clip the
SE zones Saturday, as the low ejects through Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Strong northwesterly winds will continue through tomorrow with
some gusts over 30 knots tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail with decreasing cloudiness.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Fire danger will increase across western zones this afternoon and
early evening, as clouds clear and NW winds and dry advection
increase. Red flag warning was retained through 8 pm CDT. Extremely
dry air (dewpoints currently near zero degrees) in eastern
Colorado will advect into the western zones through this evening,
with relative humidity falling rapidly as NW winds increase. Gusts
of 30-35 mph are expected by late afternoon and early evening. An
additional surge of strong NW winds are expected tonight, during
the 10 pm - midnight timeframe, with only modest nocturnal
relative humidity recovery.
Regarding Monday, strong NW winds are expected, with the strongest
winds north and east of Dodge City. Much lighter NW winds are
expected across far SW Kansas. NW winds gusts of 30-40 mph will be
common by late morning, with the strongest gusts (45-50 mph) near
Hays and the NE zones. As such, winds will easily reach red flag
criteria. Air will remain dry Monday, but it will also be cooler,
such that relative humidity will fail to reach red flag criteria
(15%) at most locations. With afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 60s, min RH of 18-20% is expected in the areas of strongest NW
winds Monday. Based on relative humidity criteria, will not issue
a fire weather watch, but any deviation to lower dewpoints will
push conditions to red flag. At any rate, outdoor burning is
strongly discouraged (especially NE of Dodge City) Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 35 62 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 33 63 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 35 64 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 41 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
P28 43 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
706 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are moving toward the north east of AUS. These
storms should stay east of AUS as they continue for the next hour or
two. All terminals are VFR at this time. MVFR ceilings will develop
in the Austin and San Antonio areas later this evening and continue
overnight. A cold front will move through the region early Monday and
showers and thunderstorms Monday morning to Austin and San Antonio
and a chance at DRT. Rain chances will end by around noon. VFR
conditions will prevail Monday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The main story of the short term will be the cold front expected
through tonight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of the front another
warm afternoon is producing more record high temperatures. Just like
yesterday the warm afternoon temperatures and abundant moisture could
spark off a few late afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the
I-35 corridor. The Texas Tech WRF and last few runs of the HRRR have
consistently shown this activity along and east of I-35 late this
afternoon into the evening hours.
Based on the latest high resolution models the front should arrive
across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country early Monday morning
(between 2-4am), moving into the I-35 corridor between 5-7am, and
then south through the Coastal Plains by 10am. While the best upper
level jet dynamics will remain north of the area across North Texas
and Oklahoma, where SPC has an enhanced risk of severe weather,
decent CAPE and modest shear will create a small window for some
strong, and possibly a severe storm or two across the area. The main
threats will be some hail (best chances across the Hill Country early
Monday morning), and damaging winds (anywhere along the broken line
of storms). Because of this SPC does have parts of the Hill Country
and Coastal Plains in either a Day 1 or Day 2 Marginal risk. High
resolution models depict a broken line of showers and storms moving
through the area. Any of these could produce a brief heavier shower,
but general rainfall amounts should be light. The time of day (early
morning through morning hours) should also help keep the severe risk
down to just the few strong to severe storms like we saw with the
last front.
The front will quickly clear the area through the day with drier and
cooler air filtering in behind it. Sunny skies should return by
Monday afternoon with winds out of the north between 10-15 mph. Highs
tomorrow should hold in the upper 70s to lower 80s, a good 10-15
degrees cooler than highs today. Because of the drier air and
decent post frontal winds elevated fire weather will be a concern
across the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau during the
afternoon hours on Monday.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be mostly sunny and seasonable
across South Central Texas. Afternoon highs will be near normal for
mid to late October in the upper 70s and lower 80s. While Tuesday
will see light winds and dry air remaining in place, southerly flow
will make a return on Wednesday hastening the return of Gulf of
Mexico moisture ahead of the next cold front.
Models are still in vast disagreement with the timing of the large
upper trough and cold front for Thursday. The GFS remains the most
progressive of the models having a large upper trough across the
Plains and a cold front that arrives mid-day on Thursday. The 12z
ECMWF and 12z Canadian continued the trend of their 00z runs and
remain deeper and slower with the trough and thereby are slower with
the front. The Canadian is a nice compromise between the extremes of
the GFS and ECMWF at this point, bringing the front through Thursday
evening, with the ECMWF moving it across the area Thursday night into
Friday. Regardless of the timing the front, which looks stronger than
the front moving through tonight, should bring another good shot of
rain for most areas along with much cooler temperatures. Highs Friday
should struggle to get out of the mid 60s, and by Saturday they will
only reach into the upper 60s to near 70. This means overnight lows
in the 40s for Friday through Sunday morning. One important note
about the ECMWF and Canadian solutions is they keep the upper trough
across north Texas into the weekend, which if it verifies would keep
rain chances around behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 65 78 53 80 54 / 80 40 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 78 49 80 51 / 70 40 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 80 51 80 52 / 60 50 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 60 76 50 77 51 / 90 20 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 65 86 52 84 56 / 20 - 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 77 49 78 52 / 90 30 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 69 84 50 83 54 / 50 30 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 79 51 80 52 / 70 50 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 79 50 80 52 / 60 60 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 69 81 53 80 55 / 60 40 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 70 81 53 81 55 / 50 40 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
842 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Observations and web cams continue to show dense fog developing
near the lakeshore over Manitowoc, Kewaunee and Door counties.
Have issued a dense fog advisory through 4 am Monday. Confidence
in the expiration time is low, but most meso-model vsby forecasts
show improvement by then, possibly due to increasing surface
winds. The midnight shift will need to monitor to see if the
headlines need to be extended.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/imagery show a weak high
pressure system centered across Wisconsin early this afternoon.
The last remnants of this morning`s low stratus and fog has pushed
into Lake Michigan. Meanwhile, low pressure is moving east over
South Dakota with an associated arcing band of rain. As this low
intensifies as it moves northeast into Wisconsin on Monday,
forecast concerns mainly revolve around precip trends, and
potential for gales and lakeshore flooding.
Tonight...Low pressure will move east towards the Minnesota and
Iowa border by 12z Monday. Ahead of the low, will see a large
swath of middle and high clouds sweep across the area. Southeast
winds will also be increasing through the night as the pressure
gradient tightens. The combo of cloud cover and increasing winds
will lead to a warmer night, with lows ranging from the low 40s
near the U.P. border to near 50 by the lakeshore. Models generally
indicate that low level moisture will increase very late tonight,
with progged soundings indicating that a chance of precip will
increase after about 09z over central WI. The rest of the area
should see dry weather hold on.
Monday...The strengthening low will lift northeast across western
Wisconsin through the day. A band of rain will be accompanying
the low, which will move from southwest to northeast across most
of the area during the morning. Some of the heaviest rain may
occur during the afternoon just ahead of the dry slot where models
project 100-200 j/kg of elevated cape will arrive. Therefore,
some claps of thunder appear possible along with some locally
heavy downpours. Decent rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches look
likely for most of the area. Gusty southeast winds to 30 or 35 mph
will lead to a wind driven rain at times and large waves of 6 to
10 ft along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The synoptic pattern will
be favorable for lakeshore flooding, though models do not
indicate much in the way of a storm surge. However, given 6 to 10
ft waves expected, this could lead to some flooding in low lying
areas along the lakeshore and beach erosion. Will hoist a
lakeshore flood advisory. Lowered highs a degree or two because of
the rainfall.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Surface and upper lows will move slowly northeast
from the Minnesota Arrowhead Monday night to near Hudson`s Bay
Wednesday. A period of dry weather is possible Monday evening,
before showers return Monday night into Tuesday as warm air wraps
around the system and arrives from the northwest.
Looks like the precipitation will remain as all rain with 925 mb
temperatures remaining above freezing until Wednesday. Mostly dry
and cool weather should follow for the middle and end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
There are many aviation concerns during this TAF period, including
fog potential along the lakeshore and in far northeast WI tonight,
the arrival of moderate to heavy rainfall and associated MVFR/IFR
flight conditions on Monday, and a significant threat of LLWS
late tonight into Monday.
Marine fog was impacting the Lake Michigan shoreline early this
evening, and resulting in VLIFR conditions at the MTW TAF site.
With continued east flow tonight, would expect the fog to continue
along the coast through most of the night, though increasing winds
may help improve conditions late. Another potential area of fog
is in far northeast WI, where east to southeast upslope flow
may result in some development after midnight.
A large area of rain will arrive late tonight into early Monday,
and become moderate to heavy during the late morning and early
afternoon. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR as the steadier/heavier rains arrive and fog forms. The
precipitation is expected to taper off as a dry slot arrives
later in the afternoon, and flight conditions may return to VFR in
some areas.
Very strong southeast winds will develop above the surface late
tonight into Monday morning, then veer south to southwest with
time during the afternoon. Winds aloft may reach 50 to 60 knots,
so significant LLWS is expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
A strong low pressure system will be passing across the area on
Monday and Tuesday. Ahead of the low, east to southeast winds
will increase late tonight into Monday morning, with gusts on the
Bay and Lake approaching 30 kts by midday. Wind gusts will peak on
Monday afternoon in the 30 to 35 kt range, before subsiding
somewhat on Monday evening.
After winds veer to the southwest, winds are expected to increase
again late Monday night into Tuesday. Gusts in the 30 to 35 kt
range appear likely from late Monday night into Tuesday night.
Wind gusts will be approaching gale force for much of the period
from Monday morning through Tuesday night. The latest guidance
suggests Tuesday into Tuesday night may have the greatest risk of
gales. As a result, will issue a small craft advisory starting at
6 am Monday and only mention a few gale force gusts possible for
the Bay. Later shifts may upgrade if enough support from the
latest trends. Will upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning on
Lake Michigan.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ022-040-050.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for
WIZ022-040-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
MARINE.........MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
748 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Dry conditions will persist through tonight with lows in the lower
50s. Showers, and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm, will
overspread the region on Monday as a strong frontal system moves
through. Temperatures then turn much cooler behind the front for
the remainder of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area and will not fall
off much tonight as influx of warmer air continues. Deepening low
pressure will take shape to the southwest and track quickly NE our
of Nebraska tonight and to near Lake Superior by Monday night as
strong upper level trough continues to cut off and become
negatively tilted. 2 features to watch for rain chances over the
next 24 to 36 hours. A pre frontal trough will quickly spread
rainshowers into the area after 12Z, rapidly shifting east by
18-21Z. Strongly forced line of showers and possibly some rumbles
of thunder will then accompany the strong cold front set to sweep
in and clear the area by 6Z Tues. Overall not sure how much
rainfall we will end up in the area with best moisture influx
occuring right along the front. Most locations should end up with
quarter to half inch of rain with pockets of higher amounts. Non-
zero severe threat still exists, but majority of models still
struggle to get sufficient moisture in here to allow for stronger
wind fields to aid in development. Winds will be gusty Monday
afternoon and could see some locally higher gusts with the
stronger showers/storms.
Colder air will quickly settle in Monday night with lows back into
the middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Wrap around moisture and weak waves dropping through the NW flow
will allow for at least a shot of some showers Tuesday across the
north. Tuesday will also be rather breezy as stronger winds are
mixed down with strong CAA. Weds should be dry as high pressure
moves east with yet another trough digging in for Thursday to
bring reinforcing shot of colder air into the weekend (highs
Friday struggling out of the 40s in many spots. Degree of
moisture return still in question so maintaining slgt chc to chc
pops ahead of the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Primary focus with respect to 00 UTC terminals for northern
Indiana is delay in timing and added delineation between
prefrontal and frontal rainbands.
Intense Plains cyclone with embedded shortwave through base over
Oklahoma Panhandle this evening. The shortwave will eject to the
northeast and drive a prefrontal trough with shallow convection
pinwheeling through northern Indiana about midday. Timing, per
HRRR and other higher-res guidance suggests a delay in onset.
Provided short two hour period of tempo IFR conditions associated
with passage of this succinct/strongly forced band of showers.
While still a non-zero chance for late afternoon embedded
thunderstorm associated with primary frontal passage, best
indications for destabilization/upper jet dynamics relegated south
of region. As such have again attempted to define this second band
with another tempo group degradation into IFR. Strong winds noted
as well with approach of system with veering through the day. Also
gave some semblance to frontal passage at KSBN late in the
forecast period. Later forecast iterations to continue to focus on
timing and subsequent fropa at KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
LMZ043-046.
Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
907 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Still have concerns about severe weather overnight, particularly
to the south of the Missouri River. Thunderstorms, some severe,
have developed over the central and southern Plains that have
developed in a narrow axis of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. 00Z upper air
analysis is showing strong low level moisture advection into
Missouri ahead of a upper low that is currently over Nebraska
Panhandle. Latest runs of the HRRR have been consistent that QLCS
will move into the western CWA after midnight that will move east
into Illinois and begin to weaken after 6 am. Shear/instability
parameters are similar to what was mentioned in the previous
discussion, with the potential for damaging winds and brief
tornadoes, particularly in the slight risk area.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
The main concern for tonight will be on convective trends and the
possibility of severe weather. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of a cold front draped
southward from a surface low moving through the northern Plains.
Confidence has increased in the amount of instability expected
overnight tonight, with SBCAPEs approaching 500 J/kg just south of a
retreating warm front. Exactly how far north this boundary gets will
be key, but current indications are that it should pass north of
southeast Missouri and parts of southwest Illinois very late
tonight. This amount of instability combined with strong low-level
shear and helicity along with the 0-3km shear vector oriented
perpendicular to the line suggests both damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes will be a threat in these locations. Timing wise, the
highest threat should be between roughly 3-6AM.
CAMS continue to suggest the QLCS will outrun the boundary to the
east, exiting the CWA by early Monday morning. Only lingering rain
showers are expected for the most part the rest of the morning
mainly across portions of south-central Illinois. The dry slot of
the midlatitude cyclone will move across the region during the day
on Monday, so expect decreasing clouds along with breezy
west/southwest winds. High temperatures will actually be near normal
even behind the front due to deep mixing and favorable
west/southwest flow off of the eastern Ozarks. Look for high
temperatures to reach the low 60s to low 70s from northwest to
southeast.
Brisk westerly surface winds will continue through Monday night (and
beyond) due to a strong pressure gradient south of a strong surface
low in Wisconsin. Sky cover should be mostly clear for the area,
with the exception of parts of northeast Missouri and west-central
Illinois which may get clipped by the southern edge of wraparound
low clouds. Temperatures Monday night should be near seasonal
normals, generally in the low to mid 40s across the bi-state region.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
The long term period will be one of typical fall temperature
transitions and occasional chances for rain. Confidence begins to
decrease beyond Thursday due to disagreement in guidance with
respect to the finer details in the large scale pattern.
A mature, occluded surface low will continue to track into the
western part of the Great Lakes during the day Tuesday, as the cold
front extending to its south makes eastward progress into the Ohio
Valley. The associated upper level low continues to broaden through
the midweek period to encapsulate the eastern two-thirds of the
nation under a longwave trough. This will drop high temperatures by
about 10 degrees with an H8 airmass of 0C to 5C moving overhead
through the day. It also has the potential to be a windy afternoon
with a stiff LLJ wrapping into the southern periphery of the low
from the west. Much drier air on northwest flow should result in
sunny conditions. Bufkit overview suggest mixing could be deep
enough to reach 35-40 kt winds aloft for a 3-5 hour period Tuesday
afternoon. Its safe to say gusts could reach 30-35 mph with
sustained winds of 15-20 mph north of I-70. Winds should quickly
subside through the evening as the sun sets and system pushes
further north of the region.
Surface high pressure builds into the gulf states late Tuesday into
Wednesday, which places the region under its western edge and shifts
surface flow out of the southwest. Dry conditions remain in place
and allow temperatures to respond well into the 60s to near 70
degrees. This doesn`t last long, however, with another cold front
dropping in from the north. The front arrives late Wednesday into
Thursday bringing a much cooler airmass into the Midwest with
showers possible along the front into the day Thursday. The overall
spread will likely be limited by the lack of any broad support, so
don`t expect any widespread rainfall at this point.
It`s beyond Thursday where guidance begins to make a notable split,
as mentioned in the previous updates. CMC/ECM continue to project an
upper level cutoff low at the southwestern end of the overall
trough, while the GFS is more progressive with a modest trough. The
GFS would be the drier solution, while the other options pull a
surface low out of the gulf with the northeastward progression of
the upper level low. This would bring the potential for stratiform
rainfall may as early as Saturday morning and potentially into
Sunday. Given current spread, confidence is rather is low in any
given solution with only slight chance to chance POPs through next
weekend. Temperatures are likely to below normal or at least
seasonably cool through the end of the period.
Maples
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Dry and VFR conditions are expected through 06Z. Then a line of
thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across area
affect KCOU between 07-10Z and KUIN and the St. Louis are
terminals between 09-13Z. These storms will likely reduce
visibilities and ceilings to IFR as the move through. In addition,
there may be wind gusts at or above 35 knots at KCOU and the St.
Louis area terminals, most likely from the west to southwest.
Thereafter, ceilings will improve to VFR early on Monday morning
at the same time that winds veer to the southwest and gusts into
the 20 to 30 knot range.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Dry and VFR conditions are expected until after 06Z. Then a line
of thunderstorms is expected to move through the terminal between
09-12Z. This line will likely reduce visibilities and ceilings to
IFR as the move through. In addition, there may be wind gusts at
or above 30 knots, most likely from the west to southwest. Thereafter,
ceilings will improve to VFR early on Monday morning at the same
time that winds veer to the southwest with gusts above 20 knots
possible.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
938 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Couple of updates this evening. First, dry air evident on the 00z
MPX sounding continues to impede the progress of rain moving into
southwest MN (it`s just reaching Sioux Falls, SD as of 9 pm). As a
result, further slowed the northeastward push of PoPs tonight. It
really doesn`t look like this band of rain gets its act together
until after 8z, when the RAP shows a good surge of moisture
transport coming up out of NE IA on the LLJ.
Other change was to add a wind advisory for western into southern
MN Monday night into Tuesday. This is a classic high wind setup
and given how high our confidence is that we will see wind gusts
of at least 50 mph, seems unnecessary to wait another shift to
get this out. Bigger question isn`t whether or not we need an
advisory, but whether or not a warning will be needed. Monday
night, RAP shows h85 winds increasing to over 60 kts on the west
side of the low in a region of CAA. GFS soundings also showing
occasional hours where top of the channel winds from western into
southern MN are up around 55 kts, so big winds are all but a
certainty, it`s just a question of how much of those winds we can
tap into to possibly push us into a warning (50 kt/58 mph gusts or
more).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Forecast concerns for the short term are precipitation timing and
extent of convective threat into Monday. Then remain wind becomes
an issue late Monday afternoon/night.
Thicker high clouds moving into the area now, but not fast enough to
hold temperatures from warming through the mid and upper 60s over a
portion of central MN. This should be the last mild day as the next
storm system is poised to affect the region. Slowed the eastward
progression of the precipitation band. It should work into eastern
MN by 12z Monday. Isentropic lift becomes maximized over eastern MN
08z-12z period. Some threat of thunder with this activity later
tonight. Will hold onto slight chance thunder for now. This works
east during the day Monday as the surface low tracks close to east
central MN. Dry slot may work into southern MN Monday afternoon and
we decreased PoP some to account for this possibility.
As the low lifts east/northeast and occludes over eastern MN late
Monday afternoon, we expect wind to increase over the western CWA
before 00z Tue. Model soundings suggest 45-50kt gust potential from
the northwest over west central MN Monday night. Strong pressure
gradient and CAA should allow winds to reach close to that
potential. We decided to hold off on headlines for the moment. One
more model run to hone in on finer timing details with regards to
surface low.
Colder air moves into the region Monday night, possible cold enough
to mix in some wet snow over the northwest CWA after 06z Wed.
Accumulation isn`t expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Unsettled weather continues into the start of the long term period
on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then benign conditions arrive for
the last half of the week.
A very tight surface pressure gradient looks to remain situated
over the area until at least mid-day Tuesday. NAM/GFS Bufkit both
indicate 40-50 knots at the top of the channel through Tuesday
morning, with gradual decrease on Tuesday afternoon as the trough
shifts farther into Ontario and the gradient relaxes. Temperatures
will only moderate a few degrees Tuesday given the low level cold
air advection and cloud cover/showers under the cyclonic flow
regime. Highs will top out in the low/mid 40s, with chilly
apparent temperatures in the 30s.
On Wednesday we quickly shift into westerly large scale flow. GFS
and ECMWF models continue to forecast a weak shortwave/PV feature
sliding from the Plains to MS Valley region as we transition to
an eastern trough/western CONUS ridge pattern. Have included
chance POPS for a rain/snow mix associated with this feature, and
although attendant precip amounts would mostly likely be light,
could envision higher POPs once strength/timing/track details are
more certain. At this point southern areas (along/south of the MN
River Valley) look to be favored.
From Thursday into the first half of the weekend, surface high
pressure dominates the region, and brings a dry forecast with
gradually moderating temperatures. Expect highs in the low/mid 50s
for Saturday.
By Sunday, notable differences in the models evolve with regard to
the large scale pattern, but at this point we look to stay removed
from forcing mechanisms for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 704PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Biggest change was to delay onset of precip by several hours at
all terminals, though looking at where things are at 23z based on
where hi-res models say it should be, it looks like we are finally
seeing the models lock in on timing for bringing initial burst of
rain in. As this initial band moves through, a complicating factor
for late Mon morning through the rest of the period is that a dry
slot will slide up across southeast MN and western WI, cutting off
precip for a time. As this is happening, a strong deformation band
of precip will get going on the west side of the low Monday
afternoon over western MN, that will be sliding in behind the dry
slot, bringing rain back in from west to east. For timing all of
these bouts of precip, stayed close to a blend of the short term
models at this point. Continued to keep thunder out of the TAFs,
but we could see a few rumbles with this initial band coming in,
while steep lapse rates beneath the dry slot cold promote
scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. For cigs,
they will go down fast with precip onset, a bit more uncertainty
with what happens with the dry slot, as we could see significant
improvements for a time before conditions crash again.
KMSP...We look to be settling in on 10-12z for precip onset at
MSP. Look for steady rain through about 18z, with a break Monday
afternoon as the dry slot moves through, with precip and strong
winds returning late in the period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR chc IFR. -SHRA likely. Wind NW at 30G40 kts.
Wed...Chc MVFR. Slight chc -SHRA. Wind NNW at 10-15 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ074-
075-082-083-091-092.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ041-
042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
917 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
02z:
A 994 mb surface low-pressure system in currently centered over
central South Dakota. With the parent storm system now vertically
stacked, ancillary low-pressure has developed along the occluding
front in central Kansas. From this, a surface cold front extends
from Topeka-to-Wichita-to-Enid-to-Lubbock with a surface dryline
draped across the I-35 corridor. Further upstream, a broad warm
sector encompasses eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and southwest
Missouri with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 50s. Storms,
now severe, have initiated across central Oklahoma at the
intersection of the surface cold front and dryline.
Per the 02z RAP analysis, the right entrance region of of 120 kt,
300-mb jet streak is nosing into portions of eastern KS, eastern
OK, and southwest MO. At 500 mb, a robust negatively-tilted
shortwave trough is analyzed across the Central Plains with
copious amounts of differential cyclonic vorticity advecting into
our forecast region. At 850 mb, a 50-70 kt low-level jet is
progged to nose into southwest Missouri by 06z. Meanwhile at the
surface, the winds were backed. This all adds up to very strongly
forced upward vertical motion across southwest Missouri with lots
of shear; two ingredients for a severe weather outbreak.
On the thermodynamic side, our 00z SGF sounding showed poor MLCAPE
on the order of 300 J/kg and a stout capping inversion. The
expectation at this time is, that as the low-level jet becomes
more pronounced, moisture, shear, instability, and lapse rates
will dramatically increase in the lower-levels which will help to
erode the cap.
Storm mode will rapidly evolve over the next hour across eastern
Oklahoma. Isolated supercells will quickly congeal into a squall
line as deep shear (0-6 km) vectors align roughly parallel to the
cold front. As this squall line enters southwest Missouri,
multiple bowing segments will develop as 0-3 km shear vectors on
the order of 40 kts align more perpendicular to the squall line,
allowing rear- inflow jets (RIJs) to punch downward toward the
surface. As this phenomena occurs, dangerous straight-line wind
gusts exceeding 70 MPH will become possible; and with 0-1 km
storm-relative helicity values approaching 400 m^2/s^2 out ahead
of the squall line, a few tornadoes are anticipated.
At this time, it is expected that all locations along and south of
Interstate 44 are at risk for severe weather late tonight into
early Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
An upper level low is currently located across the central Plains
with a trough extending south into the southern Plains. Surface
low pressure is located across western South Dakota with south to
southeasterly winds across our region. Gulf moisture is starting
to spread to the north into southern Arkansas and Oklahoma. The
moisture will continue to advect north tonight ahead of the
approaching system.
The upper level low will move east across the Plains this evening
and will send a cold front through the area late this evening into
the overnight hours. Instability is currently lacking, but as the
Gulf moisture continues to spread north, instability will start
to increase from south to north. Instability will likely continue
to increase across southern Missouri into the overnight hours.
There will be a cap in place through much of this evening, but as
height falls occur with the approaching upper level trough the
cap will begin to weaken. Vertical wind shear will also increase
as the upper level system moves across the area.
Storms are expected to develop along the front across Kansas and
Oklahoma by mid evening and quickly develop into a line. The line
will then race east late this evening into the overnight hours.
Timing: The line may start to affect extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri by as early as 9 pm and should push east
out of the waring area in south central Missouri by 6 am Monday
morning.
The deep layer shear, the increasing instability, and strong
forcing with this system will support a severe storm risk. With
the storm mode expected to be in the form of a line, the main
severe risk will be damaging straight line winds up to 70 mph. A
few of the strongest updrafts may also be capable of hail up to
the size of quarters. Strong low level shear will also support the
risk for spin up tornadoes within the line, mainly with surges in
the line to the east or east-northeast. The better severe
potential will be across southern Missouri where the better
instability will be in place generally along and south of I-44.
North of the interstate instability will be more limited, but with
the strong forcing along the front there will still be an isolated
strong to severe risk.
Some lingering showers may briefly occur behind the front for a
few hours, but drier air will quickly move in limiting the overall
post frontal rain chances.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Gusty west winds will develop on Monday with gusts to around 35
mph expected at times. A cooler air mass is expected for Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the upper
30s to middle 40s.
An upper level trough will dive to the southeast into the Plains
on Wednesday. A head of this system gusty southerly winds will
occur and allow highs to warm to around the 70 degree mark.
The trough and associated cold front will move south through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday night. Showers will develop
across along and behind the front. A colder air mass will spread
into the area on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and
lows in the 30s.
Medium range models differ on the upper level pattern late in the
week into next weekend leaving this period a lower confidence
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
CAMS models still consistent on developing severe storms in the
plains to our west in the next couple of hours and then forming a
squall line which will quickly push through the area overnight.
Expecting very breezy conditions with southerly winds initially at
15 to 25 kts becoming west behind the front and convection at 20
to 30 kts. Severe storms with variable winds over 60 mph will be
possible along with MVFR/IFR conditions. Outside of the
convection, could see a period behind the convection of MVFR, but
should go to VFR by daybreak.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Albano
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
An upper level trough was centered across the western NE PNHDL early
this afternoon with a trough axis extending southward into the
southern high Plains. A deepening surface low was located across
southwest SD, with a surface cold front extending south-southeast
and then southward across west central NE into west central KS, then
extending southwest into the northern TX PNHDL.
This afternoon through Tonight, the upper trough will lift northeast
across the central and southern Plains. DCVA ahead of the H5 trough
axis will lead to strong ascent and as the surface cold front moves
east, surface convergence combined with larger scale ascent will
cause shower and scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front.
The vertical wind shear profiles look quite favorable for severe
thunderstorms. However, lack of rich moisture return will limit the
instability in the warm sector ahead of the surface front across the
CWA late this afternoon and evening. Some of the CAMS do show 500 to
800 J/KG of MLCAPE developing towards 00Z MON. Given curving low-
level hodographs, resulting in streamwise horizontal vorticity, may
provide for stronger vertical perturbation pressure gradients to
cause thunderstorm updrafts to intensify despite having lower
instability. Initially, there may be scattered thunderstorms
developing along the cold front after 22Z across the west central
counties but as the DCVA increases a line of storms may evolve
through he evening hours along the front across the eastern
counties of the CWA. Several CAMs show the low-level shear
increasing after 00Z MON across the eastern counties of the CWA. If
stronger surface based updraft do develop, then these updraft may
rotate allowing for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The HRRR
forecast 200-300 J/KG of 0-1 KM SRH developing by 00Z ahead of the
surface front. Even if a line of storms were to develop, some of
the updrafts embedded within the line may exhibit low-top
supercell characteristics, but the main hazard may trend towards
isolates severe wind gusts. So I cannot rule out some isolated
weak tornadoes while storms remain scattered through the early
afternoon hours or if a QLCS develops with meso vortices along
the line.
Through the mid evening hours, as the boundary layer cools,
the storms will probably weaken after 3Z and may become elevated.
The surface front should move east of the CWA just after 6Z monday,
bringing an end to the showers and storms. Surface winds will become
west-northwest behind the surface front and overnight lows will drop
into the 40s.
Monday the upper level trough will amplify as it lifts northeast
into the upper Midwest with the H5 trough axis extending southward
across MO into the LA/TX border region. West-northwest surface
winds will increase through the mid morning hours and into the
afternoon and become more northwesterly. wind speeds will increase
to 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts up to 40 MPH. If forecast mixing
heights are a bit deeper across the western counties, then the
northwest winds may exceed 30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH. The
next forecast shift may have to issue a wind advisory for north
central KS. Highs Monday will only reach the upper 50s to lower
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Monday night Through Wednesday, the northwest flow across the
Plains will become zonal on Wednesday, as another H5 trough digs
southeast into the central Rockies Wednesday afternoon. A broad
surface ridge of high pressure will shift southeast into the gulf
coast states. The northwest winds will diminish and veer to the
southwest by Wednesday. Temperatures will warm slightly on
Tuesday with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday`s
highs will reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday night through Thursday, the H5 trough across the central
Rockies will dig southeast across the Plains and begin to shear
apart. The southern section of the H5 trough will amplify across
west TX. A surface cold front will move southward across the CWA
Wednesday night and become stationary across eastern OK and
northwest AR. Light rain will develop north of the front as
isentropic lift develops north of the surface front. Temperatures
may get cold enough for light snow to mix in with the rain across
the northwest counties of the CWA before ending during the morning
hours of Thursday. The rain may linger across east central KS
through Thursday afternoon but should shift southeast of the CWA as
a surface low develops across east TX and moves east into LA. The
Upper low across west TX will remain nearly stationary. Cloud cover
with periods of light rain and low-level CAA will only allow highs
to warm into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Friday, a surface ridge of high pressure will build southwest into
eastern KS. More insolation and diminishing surface winds will allow
highs to warm into the mid to upper 50s.
Friday night through Saturday night, the upper low over west TX will
get kicked northeast across southeast KS on Saturday, then northeast
across the mid MS river valley by 12Z SUN. Periods of rain will
develop late Friday night and extend through the day Saturday as
DCVA provide stronger ascent. Cloud cover and rainshowers will
probably only allow highs to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. The
rain should gradually end Saturday night as the upper low tracks
northeast across MO. AT this time, 850mb temperatures look to be
in the 5 to 10 deg C range, so the precip will be all rain. There
will not be much in the way of surface CAA.
Sunday, an upper level trough will dig south-southeast along the
western US into the southwestern US, allowing the upper level flow
to become west-southwest across the Plains. Highs on Sunday will
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with more insolation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
Scattered tsra will be possible at MHK terminal through 03Z and
then at TOP and FOE from 01Z to 05Z time period. Winds east
southeast becoming west in the 03Z to 05Z time period. Cigs mainly
vfr with a lowering to mvfr possible with tsra as well as mvfr
vsbys. Main concern will then will be strong winds from the west
developing after 12Z around 18kts with gusts to 28 kts, increasing
to around 23kts with gusts to 34 kts by 18Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53