Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/19/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through 00Z Sunday. Southwest to west winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to near 30 knots will become northwest and north and increase to around 15 to 25 knots and 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 30 to 35 knots after 02Z to 04Z Saturday. The north winds are expected to diminish to around 5 to 15 knots after 13Z to 17Z Saturday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday... Some high-based cumulus is evident in satellite imagery at this time over south-central and southeast Texas Panhandle. This area fits well with RAP analysis of higher theta-e values from surface through 700 mb. With modest low-level moisture flux convergence expected to continue into this evening, in areas along and east of surface trof, will maintain isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern half of forecast area through this evening. Threat for severe thunderstorms is low, but brief gusts above 50 MPH may occur due to forecast DCAPE values of 1000 to 1600 J/kg. Cold front currently moving into northwest Kansas expected to sweep through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening, clearing southeast Texas Panhandle by midnight. Winds will abruptly shift to northwest and north with frontal passage. Gusts of 30 to 40 MPH expected for about 3 to 4 hours following frontal passage, with strongest values expected over northern sections. Saturday expected to be sunny with high temperatures mainly in the lower- to mid-70s, close to seasonal norms. Light to moderate north winds in the morning will trend to east and south by late afternoon as post-frontal high pressure ridge departs to our east and lee trof takes shape across eastern New Mexico. Cockrell LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday... Current satellite analysis and the 12Z AMA upper air sounding have the area under zonal flow today. This is due to a broad trough over the area and much of the western CONUS with a jet maxima of about 150 kts just off the coast of British Columbia at H2. By Sunday afternoon this H2 trough will deepen over the Rocky Mountains, with the axis running from the Saskatchewan Province down into New Mexico. This will put the area under southwest flow in the left entrance region of a 120 knot jet at H2 on the downstream side of the trough by Sunday evening. By Sunday morning, an H5 low pressure will close off, lee side of the Rockies over eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South Dakota. The highest jet maxima of around 85 kts will be entering the H5 trough axis over central Colorado. By 1 PM Sunday, the H5 low pressure strengthens over South Dakota as it moves east. At the surface, a cold front will push through, entering the northwest CWA between 10 AM and 2 PM. This will cause the day time high forecast to be a bit tricky depending on the actual timing especially in the northwestern CWA. Winds are expected to be 20 to 30 knots ahead and just behind the front. Fire weather conditions are a concern in the northwest as fuels are dry and the RH will drop to around 10 percent. Monday and beyond, the CWA will come under NW to zonal flow allowing for things to be quiet for a few days with temperatures just slightly above normal. Will have a gradual warm up into the mid 70s at least for the southern Texas Panhandle by Wed. A shallow cold front is expected to come through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has a second push of much colder air Thursday night into Friday with much of the northwestern CWA dropping below freezing in the overnight hours. Also, the GFS has precip, most likely snow in the northwestern CWA, Thursday night into Friday morning. The GFS has greater coverage in precip chances over the area, while the Euro only has a small area in the far northwest CWA. The Canadian is dry. Even with freezing temperatures overnight for the northwest and mid 30s elsewhere, the GFS is the only model depicting below freezing 850 mb temperatures at this time. Friday is still seven days away but will have to watch and see what the models do with this system as the week goes on. Hoffeditz FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon mainly for the northwestern Combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. An approaching cold front Sunday will allow temperatures ahead of it to warm into the 70s. This cold front will enable strong west winds in front of it, and bring even stronger winds behind it for a short while. Sustained winds in the northwest CWA will be 25 to 30 mph gusting up to 40 at times. Dry fuels in the northwest combined with strong winds will also be accompanied by low relative humidities. Fire starts will be more likely ahead of the front in the warmer temperatures. However, if a fire is going as the front passes, the winds shift and the wind speeds will create a dangerous situation. As the timing of the front is key to fire weather conditions and the low confidence for the timing of the front will hold off on any highlights for now. Hoffeditz && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/99