Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/16/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
806 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Will make a few tweaks to sky cover and temps, but in general the forecast is panning out about as expected. Therefore, no major changes are expected this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 The forecast challenge is how long to hang on to sprinkles/drizzle mention tonight, along with the impact cloud cover will have on temperatures tonight/Wednesday. Currently, other than a few breaks in the stratus layer across the Missouri River valley, cloudy skies dominate the weather picture this afternoon. Winds are breezy to windy out of the northwest and temperatures range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s. The upper level low pressure system churning its way southeast through the region, has produced some pockets of very light rain showers/sprinkles, as well as some areas of drizzle, across mainly northeast South Dakota/west central Minnesota today. In fact, this activity is ongoing, and likely to persist into early this evening. RAP output fed through BUFKIT suggests the depth of the stratus layer may shallow out enough by 9 or 10 pm CDT this evening to preclude any further mention of drizzle/sprinkles. Something for the evening shift to mull over. Short range guidance progs an area of high pressure over the northern high plains/front range to work its way east into the Dakotas overnight. Short range guidance also seems to think forcing along with strength of winds and low level dry air advection will send the western edge of the stratus clouds eastward toward the James River valley overnight. Areas that clear off out west overnight will see surface winds going light and variable at about the same time. This should help temperatures across the Missouri River valley to cool down into the 20s to near 30 degrees. Overnight lows further east under a more persistent overcast condition will likely remain in the 30s. As high pressure at surface and aloft works across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night, return flow winds/pressure pattern gets going from west to east. Much warmer air begins advecting into central South Dakota on Wednesday, spreading up across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota Wednesday night on southerly winds. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a decent downslope wind event setting up Wednesday night in the lee of the Prairie Coteau under this set up. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Main features to focus on in the extended include a weak trough passage Friday and a more robust system to close out the weekend and for the start of next week. This second feature will give us the best chance for moisture through the forecast period, however given the timescale (days 5-6-7), and the wide array of deterministic and ensemble outcomes, confidence with the overall handling of this system remains low. Despite this, p-type has mostly trended towards rain and thus generally the overall threats from the system will be limited. So, back to Thursday/Friday`s system, which will feature southeast low level flow initially. Low pressure and associated shortwave move into the western Dakotas around midnight, and proceeds east through the morning and into the afternoon, departing the eastern CWA around 21Z. Forcing and low level moisture is generally lacking with this feature, with mid/high based clouds that could generate some sprinkles but otherwise dry. Winds will increase for the Coteau downslope area briefly as low level flow shifts to the southwest but that is followed by a more west/northwest trajectory. Mixing ahead of the front is expected to aid in warming, so have notched up temperatures a few degrees over blended guidance for the James valley and east of the Coteau. A favorable mixing direction and weak cold advection will continue into Saturday so wouldn`t be surprised if were a little conservative for highs in the James valley. Favorable mixing will also influence winds Friday/Saturday, though blended guidance is just a few kts below higher end guidance so at this time no adjustments were made. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 MVFR cigs will likely persist well into the night across the eastern part of the area, but the west should be mainly VFR. Vsbys will generally favor VFR region-wide through tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Lower stratus clouds have been clearing east at a rate of 15 to 18 mph with the western third now pretty much clear. Some high clouds are also moving in from Montana. Temperatures have been falling in the clearing areas to the west, and have been more steady central and east. As the h850 warm advection continues and strengthens overnight the stratus will clear through the region, with patchy fog then forming after midnight over the snow covered areas. Temperatures will be challenging with the snow and possible fog creating micro climates tonight. Overall we left teh min temperatures in place. On Wednesday, more sunshine and much warmer temperatures will accelerate the snow melt. We raised the highs southwest and west central into teh mid 60s Wednesday where the 50th percentile of the MOS guidance places it and where the lake of snow cover fits the warmer scenario. UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Large stratus area currently associated with low level moisture and the low level baroclinic zone. As low level warm advection becomes more predominant the stratus will slowly erode. However, surface moisture over the snow covered areas should promote some fog formation. Then mid level warm advection will begin to increase clouds over the west and central late tonight and Wednesday. Current forecast looks ok. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show stratus being maintained with the exception of a few breaks from time to time across western/central ND. Water vapor imagery and BUFKIT soundings show drier air/subsidence through most of the column, except below 850mb/5kft. Within the low level moist layer, where breaks in the overcast have become established, a few showers are trying to form as there are decent low level lapse rates and weak vertical motion per RAP BUFKIT soundings. However they have been very short lived and sporadic in nature. Thus, will not carry any PoPs this afternoon as duration and location remain short and random. Low level warm air advection will commence southwest this evening and gradually propagate into south central ND after midnight. Increased upward vertical motion will initially allow some drier air aloft to mix through the low level moist column/below 5kft, but at the same time will also allow an inversion to develop near the ground given the snow cover and high moisture. Will likely see fog/stratus redevelop where clouds thin out for a time, and so have added in areas of fog mainly south central overnight. For Wednesday, clouds in the morning associated with a ribbon of warm air advection/upward vertical motion will continue to propagate east, allowing for a decrease in clouds from west to east. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 60s west to the colder mid 30s in the Turtle Mountains with deeper snowpack. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Warmer air will continue to overspread most of western and central ND through Thursday with highs in the mid 40s Turtle Mountains to the upper 60s west. The next upper trough and associated cold front arrives Friday with a slight chance of rainshowers. For the weekend, the GFS continues to come more in line with the ECMWF, which continues to swing an upper and surface low closer to eastern North Dakota than previous runs. This suggests a decent swath of rain is possible across central ND Sunday afternoon through Monday. There is some potential for up to around 1 inch of liquid in the James River Valley with this system. The majority of the precipitation looks like rain given the 850mb temperatures, but some snow is possible at times, especially as the system exits Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Widespread MVFR conditions associated with stratus clouds will gradually erode from west to east tonight. However areas of fog are expected to form over the snow covered areas, impacting KBIS- KJMS after 06z with IFR conditions. Expect conditions to become VFR KISN- KDIK after 02z, KMOT after 10z, and KBIS-KJMS after 12-15z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region tonight and Wednesday. Low pressure will intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and quickly track north into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. The low will continue northeast across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will return Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 9:20 PM Update: A surface ridge extends from off the southern New England coast north into Maine. The ridge will slide slowly east overnight. Clear across the FA, but upstream cirrus will spread east across the area overnight. By daybreak, there will likely be a broken deck of cirrus across northern areas with less in the way of cirrus toward the coast. Temperatures as of 9 PM have dropped into the low to mid 30s in most of the northern and central valleys and into the upper 30s in the colder valleys Down East. Did make some adjustments to the hourly temperatures and to lower the lows a few to several degrees. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Previous discussion: Calm before the storm so to speak. Broad upper trof moving across the region this afternoon as seen on the 12Z UA will be east of the region by evening w/high pres moving in from the west. Clouds will dissipate w/winds dropping off leading to a good radiational cooling night. Temps are expected to drop off quickly after sunset w/overnight temps dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the far north and west. Elsewhere, temps will generally be in the 30s. This matches the midnight crew`s thinking. The caveat to all this will be the high clouds shown by the short range guidance including the GEM/NAM and RAP to advance into northern areas overnight. This would halt the progression of any further drop in temps. For now, brought sky percentages to 60-70% and leaned w/the high clouds being partially thin allowing for some cooling. Collaborated w/GYX on going w/river valley fog given the relatively warm river/stream waters. For Wednesday, high pres is expected to push to the east in the morning with some high clouds across the northern 3rd of the CWA. The NAM and GEM were consistent w/showing the ridge axis to push in by early afternoon w/clouds dissipating, leading to some sunshine and a tad warmer reaching near normal readings. Winds will be slowly picking up from the south during the day. Clouds are expected to be back on the increase later in the afternoon in advance of the strong storm. Given the ridge axis holding in the afternoon, decided to push back rainfall percentages in the western and southwestern areas til Wednesday night. More on this in the Short Term section below. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will slide east of the Maritimes Wednesday night as a deep trough of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes supports primary low pressure over the eastern lakes and secondary low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A strong jet max surging through the base of the trough over the Carolinas will support intensification of the Mid-Atlantic low Wednesday night as it tracks up off southern New England and toward the Gulf of Maine. A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching low and behind departing high pressure will bring a rapidly increasing easterly wind Wednesday night with the strongest winds arriving by predawn Thursday morning Downeast. Rain will spread into the Downeast region after midnight and reach the north before dawn Thursday morning. Wind along the Downeast coast early Thursday morning may approach 20 to 30 mph with some gusts near the coast up to 45 mph. This may result in scattered power outages Downeast. By midday Thursday the low center will be near the coast and most of the steady rain will be over northern areas. Drier air circulating into the mid levels of the system will likely taper off the steady rain Downeast by Thursday afternoon leaving spotty showers or drizzle. The low will begin to occlude by the end of the day Thursday as precipitation tapers off to showers over the entire region. The low will continue northeast into the Maritimes later Thursday night into Friday as lingering clouds, spotty showers and a gusty northwest wind continue behind the system over our area. Clouds may begin to break up late in the day. Some sunshine is possible Downeast before the end of the day on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A gusty northwesterly breeze will continue Friday night as the low continues to track away through the northeastern Maritimes and high pressure begins to build in. The high will start to build over the area Saturday bringing a mostly sunny, more tranquil and seasonably cool day. This will be followed by a mostly clear and tranquil night Saturday night. The calm air and light winds will likely allow some fog to form by Sunday morning. High pressure nearby to the south and upper level ridging over the area will bring a mostly sunny and tranquil day Sunday followed by a clear night Sunday night. High pressure will slide off to the east on Monday as the next trough and associated low begins to approach from the west. This will bring sunshine Monday followed by increasing clouds Monday night with a chance that showers will begin to spread into the area late Monday night as an occlusion approaches. A southerly breeze will increase ahead of the front Monday night. The front will push into the area Tuesday with a strong southerly breeze and showers. The showers should slide east of the area Tuesday night and clouds may break up. A few showers are possible with a weak cold front on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: High pressure, mostly clear skies, and light winds will lead to potential for patchy river valley fog late tonight at sites such as PQI and HUL. Some minor LLWS is also possible overnight north of KHUL between the near-calm surface layer and 20 knots just above the nocturnal inversion. VFR conditions prevail Wednesday with winds shifting to S/SSE as return flow develops ahead of the upcoming storm system. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night: VFR early, lowering to IFR from south to north. Rapidly increasing east winds becoming strong by morning. Thursday: IFR in windswept heavy rain. Strong northeast winds. Wind and rain diminishing Downeast Thursday afternoon. Thursday night: IFR. Strong north winds becoming northwesterly. Friday: IFR becoming MVFR, and possibly VFR Downeast late. gusty NW winds. Saturday: VFR. Northwest winds diminishing. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Light winds less than 10 kts w/seas 1-2 ft. Winds and seas will be increasing on Wed as the wind direction shifts to the se at 10-15 kts and seas start building to 2-4 ft by later in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds will rapidly increase from the east Wednesday night likely reaching storm across the offshore waters and gale on the intracoastal waters after midnight as intensifying low pressure approaches. Storm/Gale will continue early Thursday morning with winds diminishing Thursday afternoon as the low center tracks over the waters. A gale watch remains in effect for the intracoastal waters with a storm watch now in effect for the offshore waters. Strong gusty NW winds are expected Thursday night into Friday. Winds will diminish later Friday night into Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ052. Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1005 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain over the area as low pressure moves through tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will prevail Thursday and Friday, then Gulf low pressure may bring unsettled weather next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Convective rains will continue to increase in both coverage and intensity the rest of the night as a pronounced southern stream shortwave will move through from the west. Forcing ahead of this feature along the stationary front across the area will allow for a wave of low pressure to form as it tracks across southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina overnight. There remains disagreement on the exact track of the surface low, with some models having it pass inland, with others closer to the coast, before it shifts into the ocean toward daybreak or shortly thereafter. There are more reports of heavy rains just upstream from the forecast area, and several hours straight of the RAP and HRRR are showing 2-4 inches from near Tybee north to southern Charleston County through 12Z Wednesday. The 00Z NAM has 1.5 to 3 inches, while the 18Z HREF also had a solid area of 2-3 inches in this same general vicinity. Thus we have felt compelled to add mention of heavy rains at times after midnight, mainly south of I-16 in georgia prior to 06Z, before it spreads north along the coastal corridor into South Carolina later tonight. Despite the lack of significant surface based instability, a few t-storms can still occur given the strong dynamics, with the risk generally near and south of I-16 in Georgia and along the coastal corridor into South Carolina after midnight. Temps won`t change much through the night, and breezy conditions will develop along and near the shore late as gusts reach 25-30 mph as the wave of low pressure moves across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The surface low will be moving through southern SC Wednesday morning, bringing a quick end to the ongoing precipitation. Most areas should be rain-free by early afternoon due to dry air advection and subsidence. We maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly along the coast and over the coastal waters during the morning due to weak elevated instability. Dry, cool high pressure will settle over the area Wednesday night through Friday with lows in the 40s away from the coast and highs in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models initially start out with decent agreement, showing high pressure moving off the coast Friday night. A Gulf of Mexico system approaches our area on Saturday. That`s where models disagree on whether we receive any precipitation from it. We opted to go with a blend of the models during this time period. By Sunday all of the models show precipitation over our area and this continues into Monday. Hence, we trended wetter during this time period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Flight restrictions down at least into the MVFR or IFR range will be the main forecast at both KCHS and KSAV tonight and at least Wednesday morning, resulting from energy aloft and the approach and passage of a wave of low pressure riding east- northeast along a stationary front. Periods of light to moderate rains and the potential for some heavy rain will occur during this time. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday afternoon conditions will improve into the VFR category, but along with that will be gusty westerly winds that peak at least near 20 or 25 kt. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions Wednesday night through Friday. Unsettled weather may bring flight restrictions Saturday/Sunday. && .MARINE... The main concern for tonight is in regards to the possibility of gale force winds over the Atlantic waters very late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Latest guidance suggests that the duration of any such wind gusts would be too limited to not hoist a Gale Warning. Thus we continue to run with solid Small Craft Advisories after 2 AM Wednesday on the outer Georgia waters and starting at 4 AM on all 0-20 nm waters. We certainly could see the issuance of an advisory in Charleston Harbor, but for now conditions look to stay just shy late tonight. Seas will respond to the strengthening winds, climbing from 2-4 ft early, up as high as 5 or 6 ft within 20 nm and even to 7 ft on the outer Georgia waters. The coverage of showers will increase as well, with heavy rains at times after midnight spreading from south to north, resulting in visibilities under 1 nm at times. Isolated t-storms will also develop during the overnight period. Low pressure will pass through the area Wednesday morning after which high pressure will gradually build across the waters. The strongest winds and largest seas are expected Wednesday morning due to the tightest gradient moving through. Cold air advection will gradually increase later Wednesday and Wednesday night though low-level winds will have dropped off considerably by then. We are showing solid Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing through much of Wednesday. High pressure will bring tranquil marine conditions Thursday and Friday. Conditions could start to deteriorate on Saturday as a system to our south approaches/develops. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flooding: Depending upon how quickly winds start to turn offshore in direction, minor coastal flooding is possible with the high tide Wednesday morning. A Coastal Flood Advisory is possible for parts of the South Carolina coast, including downtown Charleston. && .CLIMATE... Rainfall Records for 15 October: KCHS: 3.89/1954 KCXM: 3.49/1954 KSAV: 3.03/1971 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
954 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear and dry weather prevails across the Florida Keys on this mid October evening. Radars detect no significant precipitation across the service area. Temperatures along the island chain are slowly dropping through the lower 80s, and winds on land are from the ESE around 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure centered off the New England coast, with a feeble ridge axis extending southwest to the Florida peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a dominant deep layered ridge extending from the western Gulf across South Florida and the Keys to the Greater Antilles. The 00Z Key West, Miami and Nassau soundings all reflect the suppressing influence of this ridge, with low inversions based between 3000 and 4000 feet, dry mid levels, and below normal PW values ranging from 1.28 to 1.68 inches. Overnight, expect mostly clear and dry weather to continue, with only the slightest chance of a shower. Although the sounding data, current lack of any shower activity on radar, and the lack of shower activity early Tuesday morning would suggest that rain chances could probably be zeroed out for the overnight period, some of the CAM guidance including the HRRR does show scattered showers developing near the Lower Keys late tonight, and will opt to leave the existing 10 percent PoPs unchanged. Otherwise expect overnight lows to drop to between 75 and 80 degrees, with decreasing winds and clear skies allowing minor radiational cooling for sheltered interior island locations such as North Big Pine Key. The existing forecast is on track, and no updates are planned for this evening. && .MARINE... No watches, warnings or advisories are currently in effect, and none are anticipated during the next few days. Evening C-MAN and Weatherflow observations show gentle to moderate ESE breezes continuing along the Florida Reef Tract, while winds are slightly lower on the Gulf waters. Short-term guidance remains consistent in showing winds weakening a few knots and veering to the SE late tonight, then becoming light southerly on Wednesday as the ridge axis settles southward near the Keys waters. No significant changes are planned for the late evening forecast issuance. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH island terminals overnight and Wednesday, with mostly clear skies and little or no shower activity in the area, as dry and stable mid levels continue to suppress convection. Surface winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 knots this evening will veer to the SE and weaken late tonight, then become SSW around 5 knots on Wednesday afternoon. && .COASTAL FLOODING... Positive water level anomalies continue to run between 1.0 and 1.2 feet above predicted levels at the Key West and Vaca Key tide gauges. The Blackwater Sound gauge also continues to run above predicted levels. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys, while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys. This coastal flooding episode has been ongoing for over three weeks now, and there is nothing to indicate that it will end anytime soon. Underlying astronomical tides will decrease slightly during the next several days, but then will begin building again late next week toward a seasonal peak on October 29. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076-077. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Aviation...Jacobson Data Collection..........DR Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2019 ...Continued rain with gusty conditions developing late tonight... Vigorous closed mid-level low is pushing ESE through MN today per RAP analysis, with the associated deepening sfc low centered over south- central WI as of 18Z. Widespread moderate rain is currently falling mainly east of a line from Baraga to Iron River, primarily forced by WAA/Warm frontal Fgen. It`s a cold, gross-feeling rain, and in fact per radar imagery and forecast soundings the melting level is likely only 1-3kft AGL. Did have a brief METAR report of snow at LNL earlier today but primary p-type is expected to remain liquid through this afternoon. A little thunder also approached the UP border earlier, but it appears unlikely that any will reach the area at this point. As the low continues to deepen it will track ENE across Lake Michigan to northern Lower Michigan overnight. After a brief lull in the rainfall this afternoon, a deformation band currently developing over NW WI will fill in and track across the UP this evening into tonight. Looking more likely that at least some snow will mix in over the interior west this evening, but the window will close quickly as sfc temps are actually expected to warm slightly overnight. This precip will gradually diminish from west to east after midnight, but will continue into Wednesday primarily over the upslope-enhanced northcentral UP as well as the east where synoptic forcing will linger a little longer. Some lake enhancement may also contribute to drizzle and light rain holding on over the north central much of the day, as 850mb temperatures cool to -2 to -4C, over water sfc temps near 10C. In total through Wednesday afternoon, nearly everyone should see >0.5" of rain, with amounts near 1" over much of the area excluding the Keweenaw and south-central UP where lower totals are expected. Rainfall in excess of 1" and perhaps locally approaching 2" will be possible over the north-central and east where onshore and upslope enhancement occurs. The other primary impact of this system will be rapidly strengthening winds overnight into tomorrow, first out of the NE, then turning due N late tonight and eventually NNW Wednesday afternoon as they begin to weaken again following the departure of the sfc low. Expecting gusts of 25-35 mph from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon over all but the interior western UP, and wouldn`t be surprised to see a couple 40 mph reports along the Lake Superior shores near and east of Marquette tomorrow morning. A marginal threat of minor beach erosion or minor damage to docks, possible as waves are expected to reach nearly 12 feet, just shy of Lakeshore Flood Advisory criteria. If winds/waves were to overperform, the headline may be needed. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 437 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2019 Models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail with mid/upper level troughing into the Great Lakes giving way to ridging toward the end of the week and sw flow early next week as heights lower across northwest CONUS and the plains. Cold conditions will moderate with above average temps from Friday into early next week. Wednesday night, lake effect rain showers will continue north cyclonic 25-30 knot 950-900 mb winds and 850 mb temps to around -4C and inversion heights from 5k-6k ft. Thursday, some isolated lake effect rain showers will be possible early north central with with lingering north winds, 850 mb temps around -5C and inversion heights to 5k ft. With mid level and sfc ridging building into the area, expect thinning clouds with some sunshine by afternoon. Highs should still remain in the upper 40s to around 50. Fri, WAA will increase ahead of a mid level shrtwv and sfc trough moving toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. Although clouds will increase the WAA will also help temps rebound into the 50s. Friday night and Saturday, a shortwave moving through the western Great Lakes should bring another brief round of pcpn into the region. POPs have increased since models were more consistent with the forcing and pcpn timing. 700-500 mb fgen is likely to support a band of rain through Upper Michigan into Saturday afternoon. Some lighter WAA/isentropic lift pcpn is also possible from late Fri night into early Saturday. Sunday, expect dry weather to prevail ahead of the next system. Mild conditions will continue with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Mon-Tue, A stronger shortwave and sfc low is expected to develop and approach the western Great Lakes by late Sunday night into Monday or Monday night with more substantial rain and strong winds possible. Although the models have converged toward low development toward a low path to the west of Upper Michigan, confidence in any details remains limited low given lingering differences. Colder air moving in Tuesday could bring lake enhanced/effect rain possibly mixed with snow as 850 mb temps drop into the -1C to -4C range. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2019 IFR conditions at SAW and IWD will continue into tonight with light rain moving through before conditions slowly improve at both sites to MVFR, first at IWD. CMX will remain MVFR for most of this forecast period. North winds will become breezy later tonight with gusts of 20 to 30 knots, highest at KSAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2019 NE winds of 20 to 25 knots over western Lake Superior today will increase to 30 knots tonight across the entire lake. Northerly gales to 35-40 knots appear likely over the east half of Lake Superior late tonight into Wed as pres gradient tightens and cold advection and deeper mixing occur on the backside of the deepening storm system as it moves over northern Lake Huron. Gale warnings have been pushed back a few hours for LSZ265-267 and adjacent nearshore zones from late Tuesday night through much of Wed. A high pressure ridge will build in from the west Wed night into Thu, with winds subsiding eventually below 20 knots by Thu. By late Friday into Saturday, another low across Canada will extend a trough to the south, allowing southerly winds to gust up to 20 to 30 knots across central and eastern portions of the lake. Winds will fall back below 20 knots Saturday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ248>250-266. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ265. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...KCW