Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/14/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 646 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Local and regional radars this afternoon continue to show some
pockets of snow/rain showers over areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. These are mainly being driven by the steep low
level lapse rates and weak omega in the cyclonic flow. Expect that
these will end early this evening as the boundary layer cools and
the lapse rates become less favorable. The next concern then
becomes when or if the clouds will clear out any overnight. Both
the 13.12Z NAM and 13.15Z RAP show lots of low level moisture
trapped under the inversion in the cyclonic flow with the clouds
extending all the way back into the Dakotas. This low level
cyclonic flow really does not start to relax until very late
tonight across the southern sections as an area of high pressure
moves across Iowa. If this clearing does occur, still some doubts
whether is would occur early enough to allow for much frost to
form or for temperatures to drop much below freezing. With these
unknowns, do not plan to issue either a frost advisory or freeze
warning but will issue a special weather statement to highlight
the potential. The clouds should then clear from south to north
through the day Monday as the area of low pressure over Ontario
continues to pull away from the region. With some sunshine, look
for warmer temperatures with highs in the 40s and lower 50s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Brief dry period will come to an end as a shortwave trough and
surface low/cold front move in for Tuesday. Rain chances increase
west to east Tuesday morning and continue into early afternoon. At
this time the greater amounts look to be to our north and east,
however, as the low becomes better organized after passing through
our area. With a small amount of CAPE (100-300 J/kg), there may be
some isolated thunder as well. Lingering wrap-around precipitation
may affect parts of western/north-central Wisconsin through the
evening, but should end by Wednesday as the low moves east.
Conditions will be cool Wednesday(highs mainly in the 40s). The area
will be on the northern fringe of high pressure centered across the
southern plains for mid to late week, setting up a stretch of drier
weather through at least Friday afternoon. As the high drifts east,
southerly return flow Thursday and Friday will allow temperatures to
climb back up into the 50s and 60s. Next shot at rain comes
Saturday, as a shortwave moves across the area. Following this
system, models show upper level troughing and an area of low
pressure moving into the Upper Midwest for Sunday/early next week,
but large placement and timing differences remain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Light rain or snow showers look to linger for the next hour or so
across the area, with VFR ceilings sticking around through this
evening. Ceilings upstream vary from MVFR to VFR as moisture
associated on the southern fringes of an expansive low encompasses
much of the Upper Midwest. Held on to VFR ceilings, but added a
group of lower scattered clouds tonight as confidence is low in
what the ceilings will do. Will have to monitor closely, but may
need to be adjusted with time, or with the next TAF issuance. West
winds lighten up this evening and stay light through the TAF
period while gradually backing to a more southerly direction by
Monday evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...NMB




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Brownsville TX

 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
some low level clouds across northern portions of the CWA early
this evening with clear skies across eastern portions of the Rio
Grande Valley. Ceilings were near 1500ft at KBKS to near 2500ft at
KHBV. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande
Valley tonight into early Monday morning even as a weak coastal
low moves northward along the lower Texas coast.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The relatively "cool" weather has been a nice break from what had
been "endless summer" across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley (with average temperatures through the 10th running up to 6
degrees above normal, ranking in the top five in several
locations). That cool-ish weather continued today for many inland
locations, were temperatures have only reached the mid 70s as of
230 PM. Toward the coast, partial clearing allowed a bump into the
lower 80s. Each of these trends have been accounted for in a mid
afternoon update, which both lowered forecasts inland and raised
them near the coast in southeast Cameron County.

Hereafter through Monday night, the summer sultriness
returns...gradually overnight and more robustly Monday through
Monday night. For tonight, deeper moisture along a pseudo warm front
remains/shifts north of the region, with perhaps a tail of moisture
continuing through Jim Hogg/Brooks southeast to the Lower Texas Gulf
waters. Left the slight chances for the overnight...matching
guidance consensus. Confidence not very high...and overall
precipitation would be passing light showers with minimal impact.
Otherwise, the only other concern is potential for patchy to areas
of fog.  With light to calm winds and recovery of warm/humid air
expected to raise dewpoints over neutral temperature ground...and
considering length of day...ingredients are in place for some fog
across rural areas. Based on a look at HRRR deterministic and
HREF probabilistic forecasts for low visibility, introduced patchy
wording across the brush country. Signal less clear across the
Valley so left out for now.

Any fog will burn of by 9 AM or so Monday, and any notable forcing
for precipitation shifts north.  What`s left is the potential for
isolated streamer showers/few storms mainly in the Gulf.  Current
forecast of 90 to 95 from east to west was left alone...a lean
toward the ECMWF which has done best through this summer and early
fall when the heat is on.

The soup arrives in full Monday night as light gentle southeast
breezes return.  Those breezes should end any fog threat though
sometimes the northern ranchlands can see development.  Lows will be
similar to those last work week (lower to upper 70s)...10 degrees
above average for mid October. Overall deep dry air sufficient for
no mentionable rainfall.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...A strong ridge of high
pressure aloft anchored across the CWA on Tuesday will boost temps
well above normal. Limited moisture and subsidence will keep
things dry as well. A cold front is expected to move slowly
southward overnight Tuesday, reaching the northern ranchlands by
Wednesday morning. A gradual push south across the CWA is expected
on Wednesday. Sufficient moisture aided by an accompanying
shortwave will boost PWATs up to 2.2 inches on Wednesday.
Dynamical forcing from this shortwave and the RRQ of an upper jet
streak along with kinematic forcing are expected on Wednesday. As
a result, will go with at least chance to likely POPs for much of
the CWA for Wednesday and Wednesday night. With the front expected
to stall near or just south of the CWA on Thursday, decent rain
chances will persist, especially across the southeast areas and
the adjacent waters given the strong coastal troughing in this
region. A bit of a drying trend is expected for the end of the
week as another shortwave moves through the CWA and advects the
deeper moisture east and northeast of the CWA. Not totally
convinced that we will completely dry out and so will tend to keep
slight chance to chance POPs for mainly eastern areas. Will
indicate a warming trend during this timeframe as the airmass
really begins to modify quickly. An influx of deeper moisture on
Sunday ahead of the next strong cold front will maintain chance
POPs.

NHC and some NWP output has been indicating the small potential
of a weak low pressure area developing across the southwest Gulf/Bay
of Campeche towards the end of the week. Even if this scenario does
pan out, the westerly shear will keep any such system weak and
likely remain east and northeast of the CWA. Indirectly, it will
only likely contribute to the continuing elevated water levels and
resulting minor coastal flooding.

MARINE...Much has quieted down since Friday afternoon-Saturday
with moderate seas and light to moderate winds. As gradients
collapse completely overnight (coastal trough dissipation) winds
should drop to 10 knots or less on the Gulf and nearly calm over
the bay. Southeast winds generally 10 knots or less Monday with
the usual afternoon increase over Laguna Madre...then gradient
picks up overnight over the Gulf but still 15 knots or less...with
seas remaining at 3 feet or less though wind waves will increase
a hair.

Otherwise...scattered showers/few thunderstorms tonight fading to
isolated streamers (mainly Gulf) Monday and no mentionable
precipitation Monday night with deeper dry air in place.

Brief SCA conditions will be possible on Wednesday across the
offshore waters as the next cold front moves south across the CWA.
Coastal trough development Wednesday night through Friday morning
will contribute to numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the waters. A weakening of the coastal trough
by the end of the week will diminish winds and seas and also rain
chances. Rain chances will increase once again by Sunday as
another surge of moisture occurs ahead of the next strong cold
front early next week.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/56



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Gray ME

 939 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy fog will increase again tonight, lasting
into Monday, mainly on the coastal plain and inland Mid Coast.
A vigorous low pressure system is likely to move across the
forecast area starting Wednesday, and may allow for a period of
heavy rain and windy conditions Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will slowly build over the region from the west
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
940 PM Update...
Calm fall night in progress and have made just a few changes for
falling dew points across the mountains. Fog should be
widespread across the coast and portions of the interior and
perhaps dense at times in the morning.


8 PM Update...
Temperatures have dropped into the mid 40s across the north and
the lower to mid 50s south. Dew points have also dropped into
the mid 30s across the mountains which is helping to foster
cooling temperatures. HREF and HRRR are still supporting
stratus clouds moving in from the waters overnight. Only a few
minor changes to the forecast so far as it is on track.


515 PM Update... Forecast is on track except for some warmer
readings realized this afternoon thanks to rapid cloud clearing.
Across the north, lower dew point readings were observed versus
the forecast, so will have to monitor for temperatures trends
tonight as temperatures may come down cooler than forecast over
western Maine. Also extended the SCA for southern most two
marine zones with observed waves up to around 6.5`.


Previously...
Mid-level ridging provides a nice day locally with temperatures
climbing a couple degrees above average and some Mid Coast
cloud cover. Meanwhile further west, a strongly forced closed
low churns over the Great Lakes region and central Ontario.
Tonight, heights aloft begin to fall as a shortwave axis rotates
around the closed low toward New England. Hires guidance
including the HREF continues to suggest onshore low-level
flow/weak positive moisture advection developing overnight with
high pressure moving offshore.

This will likely lead to a blanket of low stratus and fog by Monday
morning along coastal NH and ME, further into the coastal plain in
ME with greater southerly component to flow. Temperatures are a bit
tricky tonight; decoupling is likely early on, leading to quick
cooling after sundown, but then cooling slows or is halted
altogether with moist onshore flow. Therefore, coolest readings
in the 30s and perhaps fog will likely be in sheltered valley
locations of the north and into portions of the Connecticut
River Valley. Warmest readings are likely in coastal ME/NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Southwest flow increases, as will available moisture, in
response to an approaching shortwave trough Monday. This ought
to lift ceilings in the morning, however widespread status to
stratocu cover is expected persist through much of the day.
Moisture convergence may be strong enough to produce a brief,
light shower on the Mid Coast in the early afternoon. Modestly
higher dew points work in through the day, as does warmer 850mb
temps at 5-7C, however cloud cover will be the determining
factor for high temperatures tomorrow. Should breaks in the
clouds allow for mixing and solar insulation, temperatures could
easily increase into the low-70`s across the south. Don`t have
a ton of confidence in cloud breaks tomorrow however so stuck
fairly close to a raw model consensus with higher values closer
to MOS guidance across southern NH where cloud breaks are more
likely.

While deep moisture remains offshore and to the southeast, enough
forcing along a crossing cold front Monday evening into the
overnight could still produce a few light showers especially across
the north and in the mountains of ME/NH. Models and WPC eke out
only a tenth or two of rain with the crossing front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will briefly build over the region Tuesday. This
will allow for mainly sunny and dry conditions. Temperatures
will be seasonable for mid October, mainly in the 50s.

All eyes then shift towards low pressure moving east from the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. 12Z model suite and
ensemble solutions continue to a secondary area of low pressure
over the Mid Atlantic states late in the day Wednesday. This
system will track off the New Jersey coastline Wednesday
evening, before racing into southern New England Wednesday
night. During this period, rapid cyclogensis occurs with the
low plummeting to around 975 mb by the time the center reaches
approximately Portland, Maine by early Thursday morning.

Heavy rain will fall along and to the left of the H7 and surface
low. One to two inches of rainfall expected, however locally
higher amounts are possible over the east facing mountains. The
Canadian model QPF is at the high end of the spectrum, likely
because its track is slightly further east then other model
solutions, therefore any dry slotting is delayed.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s for daytime highs
on Wednesday. Cold air advection under gusty westerly winds will
keep temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s for high
temperatures from north to south on Thursday. Breezy conditions
will continue into Friday as the low slowly exits through the
Canadian Maritimes.

Thereafter, high pressure will build into the region over the
weekend. This will allow for dry conditions and moderating
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...
VFR prevails with light winds for the remainder of today. Tonight,
most guidance has consistently pointed toward low stratus
development as a likelihood especially over the Mid Coast with
weak, moist onshore flow as high pressure shifts into the Gulf
of Maine. While some radiation fog is expected to develop
tonight over the Connecticut River Valley, patchy dense fog and
MVFR or worse (IFR near dawn) ceilings are more likely to
develop at coastal and Mid Coast terminals. MVFR, and some brief
instances of IFR, ceilings may linger through the day with
scattering likely in the afternoon. Then, a cold front crosses
tomorrow night with improving conditions to follow as high
pressure nudges in from the west

Long Term...Increasing clouds expected on Wednesday with rain
arriving from west to east Wednesday evening. Will likely see a
period of IFR conditions and moderate rainfall along with some
wind shear. This ends from west to east early Thursday morning
as low pressure moves east. Behind the low expect gusty west to
northwest winds of 25 to 30KT especially Thursday morning.
Otherwise, we should see conditions improving to MVFR and VFR
Thursday and Thursday night, with the lower conditions lasting
longest in the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Waves and swells continue to come down tonight
with remaining SCAs on track to expire this evening. Light
northwest winds turn variable to southerly tonight, becoming
southeasterly onshore at 5-15 kts by Monday evening as a wave
aloft and associated cold front approaches. The front crosses
Monday night with a switch to westerly winds to follow.

Long Term...High pressure crests over the Gulf of Maine on
Tuesday. The next low pressure system tracks up the East Coast
on Wednesday and strengthens rapidly when it reaches the Gulf of
Maine Wednesday night. Expect southeasterly winds to back to the
northeast Wednesday night. Gale force westerly winds possible on
Thursday behind the departing low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Low pressure will undergo rapid intensification as it moves
quickly to the northeast Wednesday night. One to two inches of
rain will be likely as the surface and H7 moves from southern
New England to southern Maine. Some of the east facing locations
across the higher terrain of the headwaters may have locally
higher amounts. This precipitation in such a short amount of
time may allow for rapid rises on a few of our rivers.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 657 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

Similar conditions today as there were yesterday, as our low
pressure system begins moving across Northern Lake Superior. As seen
in RAP analysis and GOES WV, there are a few embedded waves cycling
through this low, kicking off -SHRASN throughout much of Upper
Michigan. Upper Michigan has not seen some of the steadier bands
that some high-res models were suggesting, but ASX has seen a steady
band overhead just west of IWD. A band to the east across APX`s cwa
has steadily brought -SHRA to eastern Upper through this afternoon,
with some showers finding their way into Schoolcraft and Luce
counties.

For tonight, as the next embedded shortwave continues to kick winds
around expect some additional lake-effect snow and rain showers to
kick off for the NW wind belts. With winds across eastern Upper
slowly veering more westerly expect this band to slowly diminish
while inching eastward. Depending on how the bands and shortwave
showers go, expecting somewhere along 1 to 2 inches tonight across
western Upper Michigan. However, this does seem like a scenario
where we can also get nothing if high-res guidance is off track.
Guidance for low temperatures tonight are among good agreement, with
10th percentile and 90th percentile within 4-5 degrees. Felt
comfortable going right with the median based off last night`s
performance and similar airmass overhead. High-res models have not
been handling today all too well, but do suggest some clearing
tonight across south-central and along Lake Michigan. Overall, the
chance for an inch or two of snow in west and central UP, with temps
in the upper 20s in usual cool spots to low 30s elsewhere.

On Columbus Day, the shortwave continues eastward as heights begin
to rise in the afternoon. PoPs left from overnight will slowly
dissipate as winds back more westerly, cutting off lake-effect flow
downstream. With some clear skies expected tonight into tomorrow,
based on high-res guidance, south-central UP and east into ERY may
warm up into the upper 40s with low 40s expected in the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

Models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail with
mid/upper level troughing into the Great Lakes giving way to ridging
toward the end of the week and sw flow this weekend as heights lower
across the western CONUS. Cold conditions will moderate with above
average temps from Friday into the weekend.

Monday night, moist low level westerly flow with 850 mb temps around
-3C will support lingering sct -shra through eastern Lake Superior
that may brush the far northeast, near Whitefish point. Otherwise,
increasing clouds ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will
keep temps from falling off as much late with readings climbing at
or above freezing.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, the models were in good agreement that the
vigorous shortwave trough from the northern Plains will dig into the
western Great Lakes. Moderate to strong 700-300 qvector conv with
this feature will support rain spreading across Upper Michigan
during the morning that will continue into through the evening.
Rainfall amounts across much of the area around 0.50 inch is
expected. However, lake enhancement with strong convergent winds
veering from ene to n and 850 temps to around 0C will bring heavier
amounts north central, likely into the 1.00-1.25 inch range. Higher
terrain locations could see even greater amounts.

Wednesday, lake effect/enhanced rain showers will continue north as
winds only slowly veer from n to nnw as 850 mb temps drop to -4C.
Some improvement may be possible by afternoon as the deeper moisture
slides to the east. Otherwise, blustery north winds will continue
over the east half with temps remaining in the 40s.

Thursday, with mid level and sfc ridging building into the area,
expect thinning clouds with some sunshine by afternoon. Highs should
still remain in the upper 40s to around 50.

Fri, WAA will increase ahead of a mid level shrtwv and sfc trough
moving toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. Although clouds will
increase with the potential for some light rain late, the WAA
will also help temps rebound into the 50s.

Sat-Sun, model differences were larger in handling the timing/amount
of pcpn into Sat as the ECMWF/GEM were faster and weaker compared to
the GFS/GEFS. So, only chance POPs were mentioned. A stronger
shortwave and sfc low is expected to develop and approach the
western Great Lakes by late Sunday or Sunday night with more
substantial rain possible.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

Transient snow showers will continue tonight at IWD and CMX from
lake effect while SAW will see some snow showers this evening until
the wind turns west enough to keep the snow to the north of the
site. Expecting mostly MVFR conditions in the snow showers.
Conditions will improve to VFR at SAW overnight with a west wind and
at IWD by Mon afternoon. CMX will be mostly VFR through the period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 416 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

Low pressure from the last few days is beginning to move east of Lake
Superior this afternoon. Winds have veered more west to northwest,
relaxing gusts to 20 to 25 knots. With slight ridging overnight on
Monday, winds will relax below 20 knots as another wave approaches
from the Central Plains. As the gradient tightens, NW winds gusting
up to 30 knots on Wednesday is possible. Another slight ridge will
pass on Thursday as a low passes to the north of the lake on Friday.
Southerly winds pick up to 25 knots on Friday lasting into the
weekend as another low pressure system approaches.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JAW