Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/13/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 509 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2019

RAP 500 mb height analysis and water vapor imagery showed a large
low pressure system centered over northern Minnesota today. With
ridging building over the west coast, this placed the region under
west to northwest flow aloft. Sunny skies prevailed across the
forecast area as northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots began to lighten.
At 2 PM MDT, temperatures ranged in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Quiet weather continues tonight, with clear skies and low
temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. Light and variable winds are
expected as the upper low tracks east to the Great Lakes.

On Sunday, ridging begins to progress into the High Plains behind
the departing system. The warming trend continues beneath the ridge,
with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s under sunny
skies. Relative humidity values will be in the 10 to 20 percent
range along and west of the Colorado border in the afternoon hours.
Fortunately, winds will be less than 10 mph, mitigating fire weather
concerns. The ridge flattens some Sunday night, putting the region
under nearly zonal flow as temperatures fall into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Went with forecast builder today for pops, looks like Monday 12z
through Saturday will be mostly quiet with minimal impacts.
Saturday night into Sunday looks to be our next chance for a
frontal system. Guidance for the late weekend system is night and
day depending on what model you look at. So, kept in NBM in the
extreme extended period.

Columbus Day, we can see a weak upper level trough over southern
California, this trough will continue to trek east but flatten and
shift heading towards the southeast come Tuesday morning. The
trough will be pushed south due to a strong closed low system
over the great lakes pushing southeastward. What does this mean
for the Goodland area?

So, in short, Columbus Day is looking to be a comfortable day.
Primarily zonal flow aloft, with light winds at the surface
becoming north around 10 to 15 mph after midnight 06Z Tuesday.
With daily highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 30s.

Tuesday, as the trough to the west heads east, it will push up
against the stronger upper level trough over the great lakes,
squeezing the pressure gradient over our area. Winds are expected
to pick up to around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. RH values
will be sitting in the lower 30s, as cooler and wetter air pushes
into our area, not expecting any fire weather criteria to be met
at this time. Expecting Tuesday to be a windy afternoon, with
highs around 60 and overnight lows in the low 30s.

Wednesday, guidance starts to become poorly aligned, but general
southwesterly to westerly flow can be expected aloft. Ridging
builds into the Tri-State area and highs will continue to warm
Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday, highs will be in the lower
70s, with Thursday highs in the upper 70s, and overnight lows with
quite a range from the mid 30s in our NW CWA to mid 40s in our SE
CWA.

Friday and Saturday, guidance appears to share a shift in the
upper level pattern bringing in daily highs to the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Saturday
night, we will see our next FROPA heading into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 509 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2019

VFR conditions are expected for both terminals(KGLD/KMCK) thru
the forecast period.

Winds for KGLD, light/variable thru 06z Sunday, then SW around
10kts. By 15z, NW around 10kts becoming SE by 22z.

Winds for KMCK, NW 10-15kts thru 01z, then light/variable. By
22z Sunday, E around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JN




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

 934 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy drizzle will persist tonight. Fair
weather is expected Sunday into early next week before the next
system approaches from the west for midweek which has the
potential to produce heavy rain. Windy conditions are expected
Thursday behind the departing system. Friday high pressure
begins builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
We`ve seen a break in the clouds progressing across New
Hampshire tonight. This has allowed temperatures to drop faster
within the clearing area. However, more clouds are moving in
from the west ahead of the cold front. Not expecting much if any
shower activity, but clouds will arrive and keep temperatures a
bit warmer overnight where they exist. Have made a few
adjustments to the hourly temperature trend based on
observations as well as the sky cover forecast based on the
above forecast reasoning and satellite imagery.

615PM UPDATE...
Some showers are making their way towards the Connecticut River
Valley this evening, and have expanded PoPs slightly in the
mountains and foothills to account for this. Otherwise we just
have some very light showers ongoing in the Rangeley/Moosehead
Lake region. Made nly minor changes to other parameters to
account for tonight`s trends.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A cloudy and drizzly day will become a cloudy and foggy night
as moisture continues to pool ahead of an approaching cold
front. Moisture from Melissa will finally begin to wane
overnight as that storm weakens and shifts east over the
Atlantic. The front arrives from the west overnight on the front
of a large and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region which
is slowly rotating eastward. HRRR and other near term models
are slower with the eastward exit of the moisture than
previously forecast, and have kept lower stratus and fog in
until morning when things will really clear out from the west.
Any light showers will be confined to the north country closer
to the better forcing for ascent. Overnight lows tonight will be
on the warm side with lower 40s north to mid 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low inches towards the northeast Sunday. Clouds clear
out for the most part except for some rogue cirrus and lingering
stratus over the waters. This along with the westerly winds will
allow temperatures to reach the 60s in most locations, with a
run at the upper 60s along the coastlines and for portions of
the interiors. Southeast winds return Sunday night allowing dew
point to increase gradually towards Monday morning. Lows Sunday
night will be cooler across the mountains as some minor CAA
filters in. Otherwise temperatures will be similar the previous
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In the meantime...a surface low deepens rapidly over the Corn
Belt in response to pressure drops aloft and quickly translates
into Hudson Bay by midday Monday. The cold front, which will
stretch from Hudson Bay through the Deep South, will arrive in
our neck of the woods Monday and bring rainfall to northern and
eastern sections of the area before quickly shifting east late
Monday into Tuesday morning. The mountains and foothills will
have the best chance for rain, but only a few hundredths are
expected as the system will be weakening rapidly.

Tuesday will be another transition day in between systems with
the next big weather-maker affecting New England on Wednesday
and Thursday. For Wednesday night into Thursday morning, have
gone almost 100% PoPs areawide as models are in better agreement
concerning the development of secondary low pressure over the
Gulf of Maine. There should be a good amount of rainfall with
this system as PWATs will be a just over an inch, which is about
the 90th percentile for that date...yielding between 1-2". With
the near drought ongoing the rains will be welcome.

The 980mb or better low pressure will move northeast Thursday
out of the forecast area, however there will be substantial
wrap-around clouds and showers. For the highest mountains and
foothills, cold air advection along with falling overnight
temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will mean a few
light snow shower.

On the backside of this system, a strong pressure gradient will
support anomalously strong u and v wind components. Expecting
winds gusting to near 35 mph over land Thursday with gales over
the waters. Friday into next weekend we will be clearing out
with strong high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR to IFR conditions expected tonight as moist
northeasterly low level flow continues. Conditions will improve
to MVFR and eventually VFR by Sunday midday as a cold front
moves east and clears things out.

Long Term...A moist onshore southerly flow may bring in some
lower clouds and perhaps some drizzle or light rain mainly in
eastern areas on Monday. Otherwise expect conditions improving
to VFR as a front pushes east through the area Monday night into
Tuesday. The next storm system arrives Wednesday night and will
bring widespread IFR conditions, rain, and perhaps some low
level wind shear.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Stout northeasterly flow weakens tonight as
Melissa moves farther out to sea. SCAs remain in effect outside
of Penobscot Bay. Large seas between 7-10 ft will continue to
drop overnight, with most areas sub-SCA criteria by early Sunday
morning.

Long Term...Light winds expected on Monday as a weak front
crosses the region. The next, stronger storm system will track
across the area on Wednesday night. Expect low pressure to track
near Cape Cod and then NNE toward the Bay of Fundy,
strengthening as it does so. Winds will increase out of the
southeast ahead of the low on Wednesday, shifting to the west
behind the low on Thursday. The best chance of gale force winds
will be on the back side of the low Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The persistent onshore flow and large waves will continue
through tonight. Despite the significant 1-1.3 ft surge the
very low astronomical tides have helped to prevent significant
impacts. Waves continue to subside through Sunday morning

The High Surf Advisory continues through midnight. Another High
Surf Advisory may be needed for just York Co beaches beyond
this.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Hanes




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

 959 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

A return to reality weather-wise, courtesy of surface high pressure
situated from the Mid South to the interior Mid Atlantic. The cold
front that moved across the area about a day ago was well to the east
and south of this region, extending south of SC Upstate, to south of
Macon and Pensacola. Post frontal clouds were until recently
displaced well SE of the area, but a passing upper level system and
upglide in the 305-310kt layer has produced a few mid/high clouds
from southern Cullman to DeKalb counties.

Short term forecast from the NAM and RAP suggest the northern extent
of the clouds should fade in the overnight, leading to a return of
generally clears skies. With cold air advection in place, night time
low temperatures will range from near 40 over parts of NW Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee to the upper 40s over NE Alabama. As noted
in the previous discussion, a small risk of pre-dawn light frosting
and/or fog formation cannot be totally ruled out. But development of
either looks low given not cold enough dewpoints and/or unlikely
temp/dewpoint convergence.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Low rain chances focused to the S and SE will continue into Sunday as
the upper jet and deepening mid-level shortwave swing across the
region. Again, the stronger lift and greater moisture are focused to
the SE, but some of the rain may drift into the HUN CWFA. An increase
in cloud cover will keep temperatures from rising out of the 60s for
most of the area Sunday.

Except for a few lingering showers in NE AL Sunday evening, a lull
in the action occurs Sunday night into Monday as one system departs
and the next one gathers steam over the Rockies. Modest warm-air
advection and some more sunshine will bring temperatures more in line
with where they should be for mid-October.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

A deepening northern stream trough will dive into the Ohio Valley
Tuesday and Wednesday, drawing the front back northward along with
rich Gulf moisture. Widespread rain along the front will develop to
the south Monday evening and will spread into the TN Valley late
Monday night/early Tuesday. There is good model agreement on a
widespread rain event for the area, but the location of the heaviest
rain axis remains in question. Deterministic models generally remain
focused along the I-20 corridor (and heavier QPF is focused to the
south accordingly) but some ensemble members hold out hope for higher
amounts entering the TN Valley. This event alone will not quash the
drought but will help alleviate some of the effects. 12Z models have
little in terms of lapse rates, so thunderstorms are possible but
they don`t look strong right now.

Another strong cold front will push across the region Wednesday,
ushering in another round of cooler/drier air for the latter half of
the week (though the next air mass does not look as cool as this one
has been). We`ll keep an eye out for frost although blended guidance
has trended warmer with the 12Z runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

VFR flying weather should continue across the area for the 00Z TAF
period. Weak high pressure over the southeastern states should
control the general weather situation, resulting in light winds
through early morning Sunday. Sufficient separation between dry bulb
temperature and dewpoint values should keep fog development
minimized. A system forming south of the region will bring increased
clouds (mainly mid altitude) over the region during Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...BCC
LONG TERM...BCC
AVIATION...RSB

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 630 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019

GOES imagery and RAP analysis continues to show a stalled low across
Northern Minnesota. A few embedded waves have spun across Upper
Michigan this morning bringing some -SHRASN across the western half
of the cwa. The WFO even got their first snowfall of the season
earlier this morning! Temperatures today overachieved some in the
east with little improvement across the western half.

Tonight, models suggest this low to begin to propagate eastward as
high pressure across Quebec moves over the ocean and another
shortwave pushes eastward across the Canadian Rockies. Winds look to
become more westerly by tomorrow morning with 850 temps about -5 to -
6 C. With that, expect some lake-effect showers to develop in the W
to NW belts. Sounding profiles suggest a mixed bag of precipitation
overnight, slowly becoming all by early tomorrow morning. With soil
temps still above freezing, expecting up to an inch of snow west of
a line from SAW to IMT. Western interior will fall into the upper 20s
with temps near 30 else where. With SW flow continuing overnight in
eastern UP, temps may hover in the mid 30s downwind of Lake
Michigan. Some lake-effect showers are expected through the evening
across the east in the SW belts, however these belts have yet to
gain much traction through this afternoon. Building waves across
Lake Michigan has begun to increase with some minor lakeshore
flooding expected across Schoolcraft County.

Tomorrow, lake-effect showers will continue in the morning
downstream of Lake Superior. Models suggest some pockets of showers
across the interior portions of Upper Michigan as the low progresses
eastward. Best chances remain west through the afternoon, with south-
central and eastward likely remaining dry through the afternoon
hours until the low moves east of the UP. With a 850mb cold pool
remaining above us, sounding profiles suggest winds to remain
elevated with temperatures struggling to break 40 west of Alger and
Delta Counties. Eastern counties and those down wind of Lake
Michigan may see the potential of low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019

An anomalously deep upper level low will continue to track very
slowly across Lake Superior and into southern Ontario through
Monday. Shortwave troughs rotating around the upper level low will
bring continued chances for precipitation though early Monday. The
low pressure will continue to weaken and shift into the Hudson Bay
area early next week. This will give much of the UP a brief break in
the precipitation Monday and Monday night. The next upper level low
will approach the area from the northwest on Tuesday. Ensembles
indicate negative height anomalies developing over the north Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with continued height falls as the low moves into
the eastern Great Lakes. A deepening surface low tracking into the
area on Tuesday with widespread precipitation developing as synoptic
scale lift increases. Models still diverge somewhat on the track and
timing but indications are that it could take a favorable track for
lake enhanced precipitation over the UP. Thursday looks to be the
driest day with a shortwave ridge moving into the region. A weak
shortwave trough will move into the region on Friday bringing a
chance for light precipitation.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages though midweek
before moderating to seasonal averages by next Friday. Winds should
become relatively light late Monday into Tuesday morning before
strengthening from the northwest as the approaching surface low
deepens.

Precipitation type though Monday will be in the from of a rain and
snow mix with a change over to all snow in the interior at night.
Winds become more favorable for lake enhance precipitation Sunday
and Sunday night. An inch or two of snow may accumulate in the
grassy areas over the interior with up to 3 inches at the highest
elevations. Still not expecting much in the way of impacts with the
relatively warm ground temperatures.

For the next storm system on Tuesday and Wednesday profiles support
mainly a rain scenario with some snow possibly mixing in over the
interior on Tuesday night. Friday`s precipitation will be in the
form of all rain as temperatures moderate with a southwest flow.

Conditions on Monday night look favorable for fog development over
the interior with breaks in the cloud cover, clearing skies and
anticedent moisture from recent precipitation. Have added the
mention for fog in the Wx for this area.

Used mainly NationalBlend guidance which seems to have a good handle
on the active pattern. Did bump up the PoPs across the western UP on
late Sunday/Sunday night as models are diminishing the lake enhanced
precipitation too early. NationalBlend has ramped up on the PoPs for
the Tue/Wed system to likely/categorical which look reasonable.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019

VFR conditions will continue into this evening at all sites except
for some brief MVFR conditions in snow showers. Conditions will fall
to MVFR later tonight at IWD and SAW and by Sun morning at CMX.
As winds turn more westerly on Sun, some lake-effect shra is
expected at CMX and perhaps IWD, with SAW remaining dry.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 357 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019

Lake Superior continues to be affected by a stalled low pressure
system sitting across Northern Minnesota. This low will move east
through the rest of the weekend, with winds becoming more westerly
and gusts falling to around 20 knots as the gradient relaxes. A
secondary trough will pass across Lake Superior midweek with NW
winds gusting up to 30 knots. At this time, there is a chance for
some gales as well on Wednesday afternoon. A ridge will move
overhead late this week, with stiff southerly winds gusting up to 25
knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...NJL
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JAW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sacramento CA

 336 PM PDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected into early next week. Near average
temperatures, then cooler than normal temperatures mid to late
week. A weather system could bring a chance of showers late week
into next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery shows hazy skies across the area due to
wildfire smoke. HRRR indicates smoke remaining over the Sierra,
generally south of I-80 the rest of today into early Sunday
morning. Elsewhere, hazy skies will be possible. Chilly morning
lows were observed at some spots today, with some preliminary
records broken this morning including Redding Airport 38 degrees
(old record was 39 degrees in 2008), and Vacaville 38 degrees (old
record was 41 degrees in 2013).

An approaching weak upper-level trough will bring increasing
cloud cover this afternoon into Sunday, as well as some minor
cooling. No precipitation is expected with this system given the
lack of moisture. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday night should
be a bit warmer given increasing cloud cover, and will remain
right around average. Dry conditions will persist into early next
week as ridging builds in behind the departing weekend system.
Daytime temperatures will be right around average over the next
few days, with Valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and mid
50s to low 70s over the mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

Upper ridge of high pressure over the west coast begins breaking
down on Wednesday as guidance brings an eastern Pacific upper low
pressure system towards the Pacific Northwest coast. Light showers
could spread over the Coastal Range and the western Shasta county
mountains Wednesday afternoon. The remainder of the forecast area
will likely see at least a slight cooling trend. Models diverge
late Wednesday into Thursday on depth and timing of this shortwave
system. Have increased precipitation coverage and QPF amounts as
models have trended towards a slightly wetter solution. Upper
troughing over the northwest U.S. will keep precipitation chances
over the northern mountains on Friday with continued well below
normal daytime highs. Long range models in decent agreement in
rebuilding upper ridging over the west coast going into next
weekend. Transition from trough to ridge will bring another round
breezy north winds early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for the TAF cycle with high clouds
passing over the region. Smoke (FU) aloft may be observed across
portion of the Sacramento Valley and Sierra due to the Caples Fire
burning in El Dorado County. For airports and areas surrounding
the fire, periods of MVFR conditions may be possible at times.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$