Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1013 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 No significant changes to the forecast are needed for this update. The latest trend of a slight westward shift of the western gradient of snowfall overnight through Friday morning still holds true, but does not necessitate any adjustments to headlines. UPDATE Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Current radar and surface observations indicate an area of moderate snow across southwest into south central North Dakota. This lines up well with a strong impulse that can be seen from water vapor satellite imagery. Models do not seem to be handling this well. PoPs have already been extended across southwest into north central North Dakota, but it looks like further adjustments will need to be made. It seems that tonight`s expected area of greatest snowfall may be setting up a bit farther west. The 22Z HRRR did show a significant westward shift of both lighter accumulations and the gradient of +6". Will continue to monitor observational and rapid-refresh model trends for any adjustments to the forecast and/or headlines. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A powerful winter storm will continue to impact the eastern half of North Dakota through Saturday afternoon with accumulating snow and strong winds. The first main wave has pushed through and the next wave is expected tonight. Light snow lingers across central North Dakota as synoptic scale forcing continues to increase and the center of the surface low moves up into northern Minnesota while the upper is entering the western Dakotas. Only an additional inch of two of snow is expected today and tonight across southwest and portions of central North Dakota. Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory for locations such as Hettinger, Mott, New Salem and Bismarck. Higher amounts (3 to 7 inches) are expected across the James River Valley tonight as the next wave begins. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Significant additional snowfall accumulations are expected across portions of central North Dakota Friday and Saturday, along with even stronger winds. The 12z model suite agrees quite well on the storm track for Friday and Saturday, with the surface low stalling out across northwest Minnesota. This signal has been consistent over the past few days, with only minor shifts in the storm track from run to run. A very tight gradient of very high amounts (potentially 20+ inches) to low amounts (an inch or two) will set up across central North Dakota tomorrow into Saturday as the low pressure system wraps up and stalls. Locations on the edge of the higher amounts include Minot, Washburn, Bismarck, and surrounding areas. Though models are in good agreement on the track, even a slight shift in the storm track will have significant impacts on snowfall amounts. There is higher confidence that Minot and surrounding areas will see higher amounts as a TROWL develops and pushes into north central North Dakota late Friday night into Saturday morning and therefore a Winter Storm Warning has been issued through Saturday afternoon. Confidence that the TROWL will make it as far south as Bismarck or that the gradient will shift far enough west is lower and therefore we will continue with a Winter Weather Advisory for Bismarck and surrounding areas. The Winter Storm Warning across the Turtle Mountains and northern James Valley has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Confidence has increased that significant snowfall and very strong winds will impact these areas Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting to 60 mph will combine with 15+ inches of snow to create whiteout conditions and dangerous if not impossible travel. The official forecast has very significant snow accumulations for the eastern half of North Dakota. It is important to note however, that even though the forecast may say, for example 24 inches of snow, that doesn`t necessarily mean you will encounter 24 inches of snow on your driveway or street. During the day road temperatures should rise to near or slightly above freezing which will lead to melting and due to strong winds and the heavy, wet nature of the snow compaction will occur. The low finally pushes out of the Northern Plains on Sunday as the downstream ridge breaks down. At this time, Sunday and Monday mainly dry across western and central North Dakota with chilly temperatures lingering. Chances for snow may return on Tuesday as a clipper system moves through the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Snow will continue across southwest into central ND this evening and tonight. Generally expect MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities with the snow, though periods of LIFR visibility cannot be ruled out. Expect the snow to diminish at KDIK overnight, and at KBIS Friday morning. KJMS will see heavy snow tonight into Friday morning. Northwesterly winds will remain at 15-25 kts, gusting to 25-35 kts tonight. Winds will increase even more Friday afternoon, reaching sustained speeds of 25-30 kts, with gusts over 40 kts possible. The wind and snow will significantly reduce visibility at KJMS on Friday, possibly below 1/2SM. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ004-011-012- 022-036-037-047-048-050-051. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Friday for NDZ005-013-023- 025. Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ005-013-023-025. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ021-035- 046. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for NDZ019-020-034-041-042-044-045. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ003. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
836 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... Have increased winds a bit across the CWA tonight and nudged a few areas (north-south valleys and west slopes of certain mountains) into Wind Advisory category. Both HRRR and RAP13 have been consistent in depicting strong gusty winds for Sierra and Luna Cos and the downslope sections of the Hueco and Finlay Mountains of Hudspeth Co, while leaving other favored areas such as the Tularosa Basin and west slopes of Franklin/Organ Mountains in a lighter wind regime. A few other hi res models such as AZ WRF do show stronger gusts in these lighter areas. && Hefner && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow as we expect a cold front to arrive late tonight from the north. By tomorrow afternoon, we`ll see 24-hour temperature differences of 15 to 20 degrees as winds turn to the east. Pleasant weather will continue over the weekend, with warm and dry conditions. A slight chance of rain exists on Tuesday, but otherwise we will remain dry with fairly light winds. DISCUSSION... We`ve seen a warm October day today, with clear skies across southern New Mexico and west Texas. That`s about to change as we await our first major blast of cool air from the northern Rockies. Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a deep upper low centered over the northern Rockies. Currently, two frontal boundaries exist to our north. The first more shallow surface boundary has stalled across eastern NM/TX Panhandle, as it dives southward through the southern Plains. The second deeper boundary is following more closely to the trough axis, and will be the airmass that arrive later tonight from the north. Current timing for frontal passage will be around 9pm across the Gila Region and Sacramento mountains and shortly after midnight across the El Paso metro and International border. The result of this cold front will be dry and much cooler weather on Friday, with high temperatures around 15 degrees below average for mid-October. Winds will turn to the east through the day with mostly clear skies remaining in place. Dry weather will continue through the weekend as we begin a warming trend and weak ridging develops over the U.S. Southwest. Temperatures will be back closer to normal by Sunday. Low confidence exists in rain chances late Monday/Tuesday as tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is advected northward toward the border. Current model runs suggest this moisture will barely make it far enough north to affect us, with better rain chances over Chihuahua. The extended forecast looks dry with warm temperatures. AVIATION...Valid 11/00Z-12/00Z... VFR and SKC conditions through the forecast period, with the main aviation impact being wind this evening and overnight as a dry cold front moves through the region. Wind 260-300 at 15G25KT decreasing overnight at 350-020 at 12G20KT. After 12Z tomorrow, wind 010-060 at 10G20KT, gradually decreasing through the afternoon. FIRE WEATHER... A strong, but dry, cold front arrives from the north tonight, bringing breezy north wind overnight and into Friday. Min RH on Friday afternoon will reach the low teens west of the Rio Grande, but wind will be decreasing through the afternoon, keeping fire weather conditions under critical thresholds. Max vent rates will be poor to fair. The weekend will remain dry, with light winds, and min RH remaining above 25 percent. Max ventilation rates will be mostly poor to fair through the weekend due to low mixing heights and lighter wind. Temperatures will stay cool on Saturday, rising closer to normal on Sunday and for the start of the week. The next opportunity for rain, albeit low-end chances, looks to be early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 51 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 62 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 50 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 42 65 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 33 64 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 45 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 67 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 58 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 50 66 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 49 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 44 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 48 67 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 64 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 30 55 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 32 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 40 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 67 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 30 72 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 31 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 46 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 68 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Friday for NMZ407-409-410. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ401-402- 414>416. TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Friday for TXZ420. && $$ 99/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
939 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .DISCUSSION... A strong cold front over North Texas continues to head south at 10 to 15 mph. Strong convection has erupted along the front and am getting a touch worried that this line will hold together as it pushes toward the northern edge of the CWA between 09-11z. The 02z HRRR has initialized well and will be leaning toward the HRRR for the evening update. The HRRR/TT WRF maintain strong convection over the northern third of the CWA and will need to watch trends because a few strong storms look possible after 09z. Have lowed MinT grids for the northern third of the region as the front looks to move through College Station, Brenham and Crockett prior to 12z and have also lower MaxT grids for Friday as the front will be moving at a good clip and should reach Houston between 14-15z. A weak upper level disturbance could bring some patchy light rain to the area Friday afternoon before conditions dry out Friday night. As for the Wind Advisory, criteria should be met over the W-SW zones but not seeing the sustained 25 mph criteria over the central/east zones. Will make no changes to the current Advisory but not sure the Wind Advisory will be needed over the entire CWA. 43 && .CLIMATE... Today will be the last 90 degree day for a while. On average (1981-2010), City of Houston and College Station have 4 days at or above 90 degrees in Oct. This October, Col Station has had 8 days at or above 90 and Houston has 7 days. Hou Hobby typically has 2 days at or above 90 and this October there have been 7 days. Galveston typically does not have any days above 90 and this year there have been 7 days. The average high temperature for the first 10 days of the month were the warmest on record for Galveston and Hou Hobby, the 2nd warmest for the city of Houston and the 7th warmest for College Station. Autumn weather arrives tomorrow, enjoy the cool down. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR ceilings will transition to MVFR ceilings ahead of a frontal passage which is expected to push across the region in the morning hours. The front should arrive at CLL around 10-12Z and push off the coast closer to 14-16Z. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along the boundary and may linger slightly behind the main line of precipitation. Reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings also look possible with with line of thunderstorms that will move from the NW to the SE. Sustained north/northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 knots look possible with gusts around 25 knots behind the frontal passage. Winds should stay gusty through most of the afternoon hours and into the early evening. MVFR ceilings should also transition to VFR conditions through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Hathaway PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/... DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]... Quiet weather to start with across the area. CU scattered about along with southerly winds of 10-20 knots. Winds should relax this evening ahead of the incoming cold front. Fine line per radar/cold front extends from Snyder to near Abilene to Jacksboro to Ardmore OK. Temperatures drop about 10-15 degrees very rapidly in the wake of the front. Cold front races on southward tonight and should still be reaching the College Station area 5-7AM and Houston/Palacios 9-11AM and Galveston 11am-Noon. Soundings look to support showers along the boundary through the entire area. The lifting near the front will probably support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms though somewhat starved/meager on CAPE. Rainfall of .10 to 0.50 inches should be norm with the frontal passage and storms. A narrow wedge of moisture/lift/instability lingers post frontal near and just south of the 850 front in the afternoon and can`t rule out a little redevelopment of storms over the northern counties as the 850 front arrives. Gusty north winds will prevalent across the region Friday late morning through the afternoon hours and have a wind advisory in place. Gusts of 30-35 mph look possible mainly mainly west of the I-45 corridor. Cloudy post frontal passage with temperatures tumbling and combined with the winds wind chill readings will hover in the 50s and lower 60s. The high temperature will occur in the morning and afternoon temperatures will be falling. Chilly night compared to our recent history is on tap Friday night with lows in the mid 40s far north to 60 on the Island. 45 LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... High pressure builds in Saturday morning and gradual drying and clearing of skies across the north before a short wave riding up over the area brings back in some mid/upper clouds. Still plenty cool but with much lighter winds by the afternoon hours. Cold front well out into the Gulf with high pressure over SETX Saturday night and shifting slowly eastward. This will be setting the stage for a warm front to edge back north into the area early Monday morning bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as well as warmer and more humid. Rain chances remain elevated Monday through Wednesday with another cold front (not as strong) Wednesday morning. Rainfall may be heavier with this slower moving front that is more favorably aligned with moisture transport winds. 45 MARINE... SSE winds should relax overnight and early Friday before the cold front punches out over the coastal waters mid to late morning Friday. Strong gusty northerlies in the wake with rapidly building seas. SCA conditions look nearly for certain on all the waters and may be getting close with gale force gusts mid afternoon Friday through early Saturday morning. Mainly showers accompany the front but isolated thunderstorms will be possible. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 60 48 66 54 / 60 60 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 72 72 53 69 56 / 10 40 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 82 59 69 66 / 10 50 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria... Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Houston...Inland Brazoria... Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity... Walker. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Jackson... Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Grimes...Inland Jackson... Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Waller... Washington...Wharton. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...43
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... KNQA radar showed strong warm advection underway at midevening, in advance of a deep longwave trof lifting through the central and northern plains. Isolated showers over north central MS, rooted in an elevated layer, were gradually dissipating. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are likely toward sunrise, particularly along and west of the MS River. Our last mild night for a while. Current forecast remains on track. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ UPDATE... Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... Currently, winds are starting to gust around the area to 20 mph this afternoon as high temperatures increase to the mid 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s to 70s as a frontal boundary approaches the area. A cold front will approach the area by Friday morning. A line of scatted showers and thunderstorms will lag just a bit behind this front starting late Friday morning with the greatest potential for some strong storms mainly over northern Mississippi. Although we have weak low level sheer, short range models, specifically the HRRR do show some instability developing over northern Mississippi by Friday afternoon. The boundary is expect to be near the Mississippi/Alabama border by late Friday evening and move out of the area by Friday night/Saturday morning. However, some anafrontal precipitation will continue to be possible in the Mid- South through Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning should start to dip down to the 40s, as this front advects a much cooler airmass to the area. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s finally bringing actual fall-like temperatures to the Mid-South. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning will fall way into the upper 30s with the potential for some patchy frost in west Tennessee. Westerly flow in the upper levels will prevail by Sunday and some weaknesses in the flow pattern could promote shower development mainly in northern Mississippi. Temperatures will start to increase slowly Sunday through Tuesday to the upper 70s though Tuesday before another frontal boundary move through the area. The frontal passage in conjunction with a shortwave trough will push through the area again Tuesday giving us another potential for showers across the area. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the front moving out of the area by Wednesday evening with temperatures remaining in the lower 70s. SGW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs A few rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm associated with a pre-frontal trough are located just SE of UTA and may affect MEM through 01Z. Better chances for rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will occur along and behind a cold front mainly during the day on Friday. The best chances for thunder will be at TUP Friday afternoon and perhaps MEM late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. VFR conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions after passage of cold front. S winds increase towards morning with a few gusts, then veering NW/N with frontal passage CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$