Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1013 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
No significant changes to the forecast are needed for this update.
The latest trend of a slight westward shift of the western
gradient of snowfall overnight through Friday morning still holds
true, but does not necessitate any adjustments to headlines.
UPDATE Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Current radar and surface observations indicate an area of
moderate snow across southwest into south central North Dakota.
This lines up well with a strong impulse that can be seen from
water vapor satellite imagery. Models do not seem to be handling
this well. PoPs have already been extended across southwest into
north central North Dakota, but it looks like further adjustments
will need to be made.
It seems that tonight`s expected area of greatest snowfall may be
setting up a bit farther west. The 22Z HRRR did show a
significant westward shift of both lighter accumulations and the
gradient of +6". Will continue to monitor observational and
rapid-refresh model trends for any adjustments to the forecast
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
A powerful winter storm will continue to impact the eastern half of
North Dakota through Saturday afternoon with accumulating snow and
The first main wave has pushed through and the next wave is expected
tonight. Light snow lingers across central North Dakota as synoptic
scale forcing continues to increase and the center of the surface
low moves up into northern Minnesota while the upper is entering the
Only an additional inch of two of snow is expected today and tonight
across southwest and portions of central North Dakota. Therefore,
the Winter Storm Warning has been replaced with a Winter Weather
Advisory for locations such as Hettinger, Mott, New Salem and
Bismarck. Higher amounts (3 to 7 inches) are expected across the
James River Valley tonight as the next wave begins.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Significant additional snowfall accumulations are expected across
portions of central North Dakota Friday and Saturday, along with
even stronger winds.
The 12z model suite agrees quite well on the storm track for Friday
and Saturday, with the surface low stalling out across northwest
Minnesota. This signal has been consistent over the past few days,
with only minor shifts in the storm track from run to run. A very
tight gradient of very high amounts (potentially 20+ inches) to low
amounts (an inch or two) will set up across central North Dakota
tomorrow into Saturday as the low pressure system wraps up and
stalls. Locations on the edge of the higher amounts include Minot,
Washburn, Bismarck, and surrounding areas. Though models are in
good agreement on the track, even a slight shift in the storm
track will have significant impacts on snowfall amounts. There is
higher confidence that Minot and surrounding areas will see higher
amounts as a TROWL develops and pushes into north central North
Dakota late Friday night into Saturday morning and therefore a
Winter Storm Warning has been issued through Saturday afternoon.
Confidence that the TROWL will make it as far south as Bismarck or
that the gradient will shift far enough west is lower and
therefore we will continue with a Winter Weather Advisory for
Bismarck and surrounding areas.
The Winter Storm Warning across the Turtle Mountains and northern
James Valley has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Confidence has
increased that significant snowfall and very strong winds will
impact these areas Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winds
gusting to 60 mph will combine with 15+ inches of snow to create
whiteout conditions and dangerous if not impossible travel.
The official forecast has very significant snow accumulations for
the eastern half of North Dakota. It is important to note however,
that even though the forecast may say, for example 24 inches of
snow, that doesn`t necessarily mean you will encounter 24 inches
of snow on your driveway or street. During the day road
temperatures should rise to near or slightly above freezing which
will lead to melting and due to strong winds and the heavy, wet
nature of the snow compaction will occur.
The low finally pushes out of the Northern Plains on Sunday as the
downstream ridge breaks down. At this time, Sunday and Monday mainly
dry across western and central North Dakota with chilly temperatures
lingering. Chances for snow may return on Tuesday as a clipper
system moves through the area.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Snow will continue across southwest into central ND this evening
and tonight. Generally expect MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities
with the snow, though periods of LIFR visibility cannot be ruled
out. Expect the snow to diminish at KDIK overnight, and at KBIS
Friday morning. KJMS will see heavy snow tonight into Friday
morning. Northwesterly winds will remain at 15-25 kts, gusting to
25-35 kts tonight. Winds will increase even more Friday afternoon,
reaching sustained speeds of 25-30 kts, with gusts over 40 kts
possible. The wind and snow will significantly reduce visibility
at KJMS on Friday, possibly below 1/2SM.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ004-011-012-
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Friday for NDZ005-013-023-
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ021-035-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
836 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Have increased winds a bit across the CWA tonight and nudged a few
areas (north-south valleys and west slopes of certain mountains)
into Wind Advisory category. Both HRRR and RAP13 have been
consistent in depicting strong gusty winds for Sierra and Luna Cos
and the downslope sections of the Hueco and Finlay Mountains of
Hudspeth Co, while leaving other favored areas such as the
Tularosa Basin and west slopes of Franklin/Organ Mountains in a
lighter wind regime. A few other hi res models such as AZ WRF do
show stronger gusts in these lighter areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow as we expect a cold
front to arrive late tonight from the north. By tomorrow
afternoon, we`ll see 24-hour temperature differences of 15 to 20
degrees as winds turn to the east. Pleasant weather will continue
over the weekend, with warm and dry conditions. A slight chance
of rain exists on Tuesday, but otherwise we will remain dry with
fairly light winds.
We`ve seen a warm October day today, with clear skies across
southern New Mexico and west Texas. That`s about to change as we
await our first major blast of cool air from the northern
Rockies. Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a deep upper
low centered over the northern Rockies. Currently, two frontal
boundaries exist to our north. The first more shallow surface
boundary has stalled across eastern NM/TX Panhandle, as it dives
southward through the southern Plains. The second deeper boundary
is following more closely to the trough axis, and will be the
airmass that arrive later tonight from the north. Current timing
for frontal passage will be around 9pm across the Gila Region and
Sacramento mountains and shortly after midnight across the El Paso
metro and International border.
The result of this cold front will be dry and much cooler weather
on Friday, with high temperatures around 15 degrees below average
for mid-October. Winds will turn to the east through the day with
mostly clear skies remaining in place.
Dry weather will continue through the weekend as we begin a
warming trend and weak ridging develops over the U.S. Southwest.
Temperatures will be back closer to normal by Sunday.
Low confidence exists in rain chances late Monday/Tuesday as
tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is advected northward
toward the border. Current model runs suggest this moisture will
barely make it far enough north to affect us, with better rain
chances over Chihuahua. The extended forecast looks dry with warm
VFR and SKC conditions through the forecast period, with the main
aviation impact being wind this evening and overnight as a dry cold
front moves through the region. Wind 260-300 at 15G25KT decreasing
overnight at 350-020 at 12G20KT. After 12Z tomorrow, wind 010-060 at
10G20KT, gradually decreasing through the afternoon.
A strong, but dry, cold front arrives from the north tonight,
bringing breezy north wind overnight and into Friday. Min RH on
Friday afternoon will reach the low teens west of the Rio Grande,
but wind will be decreasing through the afternoon, keeping fire
weather conditions under critical thresholds. Max vent rates will be
poor to fair.
The weekend will remain dry, with light winds, and min RH remaining
above 25 percent. Max ventilation rates will be mostly poor to fair
through the weekend due to low mixing heights and lighter wind.
Temperatures will stay cool on Saturday, rising closer to normal on
Sunday and for the start of the week. The next opportunity for rain,
albeit low-end chances, looks to be early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 51 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 44 62 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 45 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 44 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 29 50 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 42 65 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 33 64 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 45 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 46 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 52 67 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 44 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 50 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 45 58 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 50 66 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 48 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 49 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 44 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 48 67 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 45 64 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 30 55 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 32 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 33 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 29 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 40 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 42 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 67 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 39 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 30 72 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 31 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 41 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 46 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 44 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 47 68 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 48 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
NM...Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Friday for NMZ407-409-410.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ401-402-
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Friday for TXZ420.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
939 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
A strong cold front over North Texas continues to head south at 10
to 15 mph. Strong convection has erupted along the front and am
getting a touch worried that this line will hold together as it
pushes toward the northern edge of the CWA between 09-11z. The 02z
HRRR has initialized well and will be leaning toward the HRRR for
the evening update. The HRRR/TT WRF maintain strong convection
over the northern third of the CWA and will need to watch trends
because a few strong storms look possible after 09z.
Have lowed MinT grids for the northern third of the region as the
front looks to move through College Station, Brenham and Crockett
prior to 12z and have also lower MaxT grids for Friday as the
front will be moving at a good clip and should reach Houston
between 14-15z. A weak upper level disturbance could bring some
patchy light rain to the area Friday afternoon before conditions
dry out Friday night.
As for the Wind Advisory, criteria should be met over the W-SW
zones but not seeing the sustained 25 mph criteria over the
central/east zones. Will make no changes to the current Advisory
but not sure the Wind Advisory will be needed over the entire CWA.
Today will be the last 90 degree day for a while. On average
(1981-2010), City of Houston and College Station have 4 days at
or above 90 degrees in Oct. This October, Col Station has had 8
days at or above 90 and Houston has 7 days. Hou Hobby typically
has 2 days at or above 90 and this October there have been 7
days. Galveston typically does not have any days above 90 and this
year there have been 7 days. The average high temperature for the
first 10 days of the month were the warmest on record for
Galveston and Hou Hobby, the 2nd warmest for the city of Houston
and the 7th warmest for College Station. Autumn weather arrives
tomorrow, enjoy the cool down. 43
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR ceilings will transition to MVFR ceilings ahead of a frontal
passage which is expected to push across the region in the morning
hours. The front should arrive at CLL around 10-12Z and push off
the coast closer to 14-16Z. Showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated along the boundary and may linger slightly behind the
main line of precipitation. Reduced visibilities and lowered
ceilings also look possible with with line of thunderstorms that
will move from the NW to the SE. Sustained north/northwesterly
winds of 15 to 20 knots look possible with gusts around 25 knots
behind the frontal passage. Winds should stay gusty through most
of the afternoon hours and into the early evening. MVFR ceilings
should also transition to VFR conditions through the afternoon and
into the early evening hours.
PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/...
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...
Quiet weather to start with across the area. CU scattered about
along with southerly winds of 10-20 knots. Winds should relax this
evening ahead of the incoming cold front. Fine line per radar/cold
front extends from Snyder to near Abilene to Jacksboro to Ardmore
OK. Temperatures drop about 10-15 degrees very rapidly in the
wake of the front. Cold front races on southward tonight and
should still be reaching the College Station area 5-7AM and
Houston/Palacios 9-11AM and Galveston 11am-Noon. Soundings look to
support showers along the boundary through the entire area. The
lifting near the front will probably support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms though somewhat starved/meager on CAPE.
Rainfall of .10 to 0.50 inches should be norm with the frontal
passage and storms. A narrow wedge of moisture/lift/instability
lingers post frontal near and just south of the 850 front in the
afternoon and can`t rule out a little redevelopment of storms over
the northern counties as the 850 front arrives. Gusty north winds
will prevalent across the region Friday late morning through the
afternoon hours and have a wind advisory in place. Gusts of 30-35
mph look possible mainly mainly west of the I-45 corridor. Cloudy
post frontal passage with temperatures tumbling and combined with
the winds wind chill readings will hover in the 50s and lower 60s.
The high temperature will occur in the morning and afternoon
temperatures will be falling. Chilly night compared to our recent
history is on tap Friday night with lows in the mid 40s far north
to 60 on the Island.
LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
High pressure builds in Saturday morning and gradual drying and
clearing of skies across the north before a short wave riding up
over the area brings back in some mid/upper clouds. Still plenty
cool but with much lighter winds by the afternoon hours. Cold
front well out into the Gulf with high pressure over SETX Saturday
night and shifting slowly eastward. This will be setting the stage
for a warm front to edge back north into the area early Monday
morning bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day as well as warmer and more humid. Rain chances
remain elevated Monday through Wednesday with another cold front
(not as strong) Wednesday morning. Rainfall may be heavier with
this slower moving front that is more favorably aligned with
moisture transport winds.
SSE winds should relax overnight and early Friday before the cold
front punches out over the coastal waters mid to late morning
Friday. Strong gusty northerlies in the wake with rapidly building
seas. SCA conditions look nearly for certain on all the waters and
may be getting close with gale force gusts mid afternoon Friday
through early Saturday morning. Mainly showers accompany the front
but isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 60 48 66 54 / 60 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 72 72 53 69 56 / 10 40 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 82 59 69 66 / 10 50 20 10 10
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Grimes...Inland Jackson...
Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Waller...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
KNQA radar showed strong warm advection underway at midevening,
in advance of a deep longwave trof lifting through the central and
northern plains. Isolated showers over north central MS, rooted
in an elevated layer, were gradually dissipating. Additional
showers and a few thunderstorms are likely toward sunrise,
particularly along and west of the MS River.
Our last mild night for a while. Current forecast remains on
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
Currently, winds are starting to gust around the area to 20 mph
this afternoon as high temperatures increase to the mid 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s to 70s as a frontal
boundary approaches the area.
A cold front will approach the area by Friday morning. A line of
scatted showers and thunderstorms will lag just a bit behind this
front starting late Friday morning with the greatest potential for
some strong storms mainly over northern Mississippi. Although we
have weak low level sheer, short range models, specifically the
HRRR do show some instability developing over northern Mississippi
by Friday afternoon. The boundary is expect to be near the
Mississippi/Alabama border by late Friday evening and move out of
the area by Friday night/Saturday morning. However, some
anafrontal precipitation will continue to be possible in the Mid-
South through Saturday morning.
Temperatures Saturday morning should start to dip down to the
40s, as this front advects a much cooler airmass to the area. High
temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s finally bringing actual
fall-like temperatures to the Mid-South. Lows Sunday night into
Monday morning will fall way into the upper 30s with the potential
for some patchy frost in west Tennessee.
Westerly flow in the upper levels will prevail by Sunday and some
weaknesses in the flow pattern could promote shower development
mainly in northern Mississippi. Temperatures will start to
increase slowly Sunday through Tuesday to the upper 70s though
Tuesday before another frontal boundary move through the area.
The frontal passage in conjunction with a shortwave trough will
push through the area again Tuesday giving us another potential
for showers across the area. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the front
moving out of the area by Wednesday evening with temperatures
remaining in the lower 70s.
A few rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
associated with a pre-frontal trough are located just SE of UTA
and may affect MEM through 01Z. Better chances for rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms will occur along and behind a cold
front mainly during the day on Friday. The best chances for
thunder will be at TUP Friday afternoon and perhaps MEM late
Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. VFR conditions
expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions after passage of cold
front. S winds increase towards morning with a few gusts, then
veering NW/N with frontal passage