Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1049 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly slide east across the Canadian
Maritimes through Friday, while a coastal storm meanders off the
coast southeast of Long Island. Bands of rain will occasionally
extend into areas mainly south and east of Albany through
Friday. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels during this
time, although daytime temperatures will be chilly south and
east of Albany where clouds and occasional rain occur.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT...This update is to retool the PoPs and light
rain based on the latest KENX radar, and recent sfc and mesonet
observations. Also the latest 3-km NAMnest and HRRR trends
still are under playing the northwest light rain extent and we
followed the latest radar trends. We increased the PoPs to
likely values over the southern Berkshires, southern and central
Taconics, and the southeast Catskills. Also, the sky cover was
increased further north and west slightly based on the latest
GOES-16 IR imagery. The light rain should diminish in the early
morning, as the low wobbles a little bit to the south and east.
Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of the
Capital Region, and mid and upper 40s from the Tri Cities south
and east with north to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday, the coastal low is expected to briefly retrograde
westward during the day, before shifting back to the south and
eventually southeast Thursday night into Friday. Increasing mid
level frontogenesis should allow another band of light to
moderate rainfall to extend into southeast areas in the
afternoon. However, there could be a break in the morning, and
from the Capital Region and areas north and west into the
southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga
region, there may be a period of clearing between mid morning
and early afternoon before clouds increase again from the
southeast. Assuming some midday breaks in the clouds occur, high
temps may reach the lower/mid 60s in some of these areas, while
remaining in the 50s across southeast areas where clouds and
eventually rain occur. The rain may extend into the Capital
Region and southern VT toward sunset. It will be breezy for
southeast areas, where again north to northeast winds may gust
up to 30 mph.
Thursday night-Friday, a weakening band of rain may extend into
the Capital Region, eastern Mohawk Valley and Saratoga region
into southern VT Thursday evening, before weakening further as
it tries to extend north and west. Occasional showers or rain
will continue across the southern Taconics, Berkshires and
Litchfield County possibly into the mid Hudson Valley and
southeast Catskills. Forcing from the offshore low should begin
shifting south and east Friday, so some areas of light rain or
showers should become limited to southeast areas by afternoon,
although can not rule out some pockets of drizzle, especially
across higher terrain areas. Low clouds may actually expand
north and west through the day as a low level southeast flow
develops. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 40s, except for some
30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks, where some
breaks in the clouds may occur early. Highs Friday mainly in the
upper 50s to lower 60, slightly cooler than Thursday due to the
expectation for more widespread low clouds developing.
Friday night-Saturday, although coastal low should continue
trending farther south and east of the region, low level
moisture may tend to stream northwest ahead of the next
approaching system from the west. This should lead to mostly
cloudy skies Friday night through at least Saturday morning, and
can not completely rule out some isolated light showers or
patchy drizzle, especially across higher elevations. Some
brief clearing could occur Saturday afternoon for some areas
with narrow mid level ridging building east, but low level
moisture may remain trapped and tough to scour out. Some showers
with an approaching front may reach NW areas late in the
afternoon. Lows Friday night mostly in the 40s, and highs
Saturday in the mid 50s to lower 60s, although could be warmer
should any breaks of sun develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended period, a large mature cyclone
will be located over the upper Midwest with a massive and
stacked cutoff upper level low. The storm`s cold front will be
located well ahead of this decaying storm system and will be
moving across the Northeast for Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. There won`t be much moisture with this system and the
only forcing will be due to the surface boundary. As a result, a
few brief and light rain showers are possible for Saturday
night (especially western and northern areas), otherwise, the
front will pass through dry with winds swifting from the west-
southwest to west-northwest and clearing skies for Sunday. Lows
will be in the 40s for Sat night. Even behind the boundary for
Sunday, it won`t be too cooler, as sunshine and southwest flow
aloft will allow for max temps to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the region.
High pressure will then be in control for Monday and Tuesday as
the large cutoff low moves across southern Canada and our
region is dominated by zonal flow aloft. There should be a
decent amount of sunshine both days, allowing highs to reach
into the 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the next system will be
approaching from the Great Lakes. A surface low and frontal
system will bring some rain showers to the region, with the best
chance on Wednesday. With more clouds and showers around, temps
will be held down in the 50s for Wednesday. Much cooler temps
aloft are expected to move in for behind this system for the
remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A coastal low will meander south and east of Long Island and New
England tonight into tomorrow.
VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hours for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. Some mid clouds will lower to a lower stratus
deck mainly at KPSF tonight at the 3.5-4 kft AGL range with VCSH
groups used. KALB/KGFL will mainly have the mid and high clouds.
Some light rain will be near KPOU with VFR/MVFR conditions until
04Z/THU. Some high stratus or mid level clouds will linger
overnight.
The mid and high clouds will gradually lower at KALB/KGFL late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon with perhaps a shower
getting close to KALB by 21Z/THU. Further south and east, the
threat for light rain increases again at KPSF/KPOU with low
VFR/MVFR conditions.
The winds will be northeast to north at less than 10 kts
tonight, but will increase from the north to northeast at 8-14
kts with some gusts close to 20-25 kts at KPSF/KPOU in the late
morning through the afternoon. LLWS may be needed late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night at KPSF/KPOU if the winds
decouple at the surface.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will slowly slide east across the Canadian
Maritimes through Friday, while a coastal storm meanders off the
coast southeast of Long Island. Bands of rain will occasionally
extend into areas mainly south and east of Albany through
Friday. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels during this
time, although daytime temperatures will be chilly south and
east of Albany where clouds and occasional rain occur.
RH will increase to 90-100 percent tonight, then fall to 30-45
percent across the southwest Adirondacks, and 45-65 percent
elsewhere (highest across Litchfield County and mid Hudson
Valley) Thursday afternoon.
North to northeast winds will average 5-15 mph tonight into
Thursday, except stronger, 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics,
Berkshires and Litchfield County.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts through Friday will range from one tenth of an
inch or less from Albany and points north and west, with one
tenth to one half inch to the south and east, except for amounts
of one half inch to up to 1.5 inches across the southern
Berkshires, southern Taconics and central/southern Litchfield
County. This will be a much needed rainfall for southeast areas,
with no significant hydrologic issues expected.
Some additional light showers will be possible this weekend
associated with a cold frontal passage.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
1915 UTC Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong
trough digging into the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold
front stretched from KMHE to KBFF with large area of stratus
behind it. Movement has slowed over the daylight hours, but will
be blasting across the area tonight.
Several weather impacts possible over the next 24 hours including
widespread killing freeze, accumulating snow and strong winds.
Confidence is high that the entire CWA will see a killing freeze
by Friday morning. As cold front sweeps into area after midnight,
temperatures will plummet rapidly across the western half of the
CWA. Clouds and strong winds may limit magnitude of cold, but as
skies clear and winds relax on Thursday night a prolonged period
of sub freezing temperatures is fairly certain, with probabilities
based on available datasets indicating chance of low temps below
28 degrees 100 percent most areas, with southeast CWA around 80
percent. Given this agreement on the magnitude of cold expected
will upgrade freeze watch to warning soon.
Next concern is potential for winter weather and first snow of the
season. Think precipitation threat will come in two phases, first
with fropa tonight and then late tomorrow morning as short wave
trough moves across CWA. Precipitation tonight is going to be
characterized by fairly shallow processes under a strong
inversion around H7. Lift with the front itself, along with low
level frontogenesis and shallow instability will provide necessary
lift, but may be more of a drizzle or very light rain as opposed
to much in the way of meaningful precipitation. Since
precipitation forcing is relegated to the low levels, introducing
ice into this area looks questionable and think as temperatures
plummet in the west that a light freezing rain will be primary
precip type as opposed to snow. Any freezing precipitation will be
fairly short lived as cold front moves south and given the very
warm surfaces out there doubt there will be any significant
accumulations. Will be a lull in precipitation until closer to 18z
when H5 trough sweeps across the plains. While best forcing will
be to the north of the area, favorable 650 mb frontogenesis and
elevated instability profile support a narrow band of moderate
snow forming and moving rapidly across area. If this does develop,
snowfall rates will be high, but area will move very quickly
limiting the amounts.
Finally, winds will be an issue across the area through the
afternoon on Friday. With strong pressure rises with the front and
40-45kts of flow just off the surface, expect to see period of
very strong winds as front passes tonight. With very dry soils
indicated on Nasa Sport LIS database will likely see period of
blowing dust in southwest CWA as well. Thankfully, impact should
be low given the time of day. Northerly winds will sustain around
30 mph throughout the day, further increasing the impacts of the
cold temps.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Friday morning through Wednesday night, a quiet and cool extended
forecast. Fiday`s upper level pattern will be similar to
Thursday`s despite the front exiting the area, especially in
respects to the pressure gradient. So bumped winds up higher than
what FB put into the grids with MOS guidance.
Friday highs will only climb to the 40s, but Saturday onward,
expect daily highs in the 60s. Friday and Saturday night lows will
be in the low to upper 20s. Sunday morning through Wednesday
morning we will see lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Not much weather to talk about in the extended after Thursday`s
event. Expecting frost to prevail over the extended period.
Monday`s shortwave looks less likely as latest guidance came in,
but kept NBM in for the extended pops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
VFR Conditions expected through 00z, but conditions will begin to
worsen from the north as a powerful cold front sweeps across the
area between 05-09Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase to
nearly 30 kts with higher gusts, and a MVFR possibly IFR ceiling
will move into area behind it. Best chance for precipitation is at
MCK which will stay rain through the period. At GLD, precip
chances are small, but could see period of very light -FZDZ
between 09-12Z. Probability of this becoming a widespread issue is
low.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to noon MDT
/1 PM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027.
Freeze Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday to 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ Friday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for
COZ090>092.
Freeze Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM MDT Friday for
COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to noon MDT
/1 PM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079-080.
Freeze Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday to 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
936 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over New England and deepening low pressure in the
lee of the Rockies will foster a tightening pressure gradient
tonight. Sfc winds will probably struggle to decouple and the
additional mixing coupled with continued warm air advection will
lead to much warmer temperatures tonight. Made some minor tweaks
to MinT, wind, wind gusts and sky grids. Could be some very light
showers on Thursday as low level mstr increases. Rest of the
forecast looks good. Frontal timing still looks on track for
Friday with much colder temperatures Friday afternoon through
Sunday. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/
AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this evening, but we
could see some MVFR decks develop by early morning and potentially
continue into late morning before rising to VFR criteria once
again. Main change in this TAF package was to account for the wind
gusts that look possible mostly between 02-08Z across CXO, UTS,
and CLL. Short term guidance such as the HRRR and ARW all
indicate the gusty conditions into the early morning hours before
lowering in speed. The tight pressure gradient remains over the
region tomorrow, and we could see some winds once again between 10
to 15 knots out of the southeast across all terminals.
Hathaway
PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/...
DISCUSSION...
While the weather for the upcoming week doesn`t look terribly
impactful, it`s not likely to be stagnant, either. Instead, we`ll
wobble between summer and fall-like conditions as fronts make
their way through the area, with onshore flow returning after the
fronts dissipate. Look for temperatures to reach back into the 90s
at their hottest, while northern parts of the area may see their
first sub-50 degree temperatures of the fall.
- Expect a trend towards warmer and more humid conditions through
tomorrow.
- Away from the coast, Friday`s temperatures may be warmest before
sunrise, as colder air will swoop in behind a cold front
crossing the area Friday morning.
- Look for things to gradually warm into next week until another
front arrives in the middle of next week.
SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Radar shows a couple showers in Colorado and Wharton counties, but
for the most part, the low level moisture - and by extension, our
ability to tap into any instability, is pretty limited. Not really
looking for anything different through tomorrow, even though
onshore flow will continue to slowly boost dewpoints in the area.
Though we may not be able to manage more spontaneous convection -
we are nearly in mid-October, after all - look for things to begin
changing from the northwest through the night tonight. As the
oncoming cold front approaches, we`ll see chances for showers or
even a thunderstorm start to creep upwards through the night. By
dawn, the front itself will be right on our doorstep, beginning
its push across Southeast Texas.
LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Look for the front to sweep across Southeast Texas through Friday
morning, reaching the coast around mid-day. A surface high of up
to around 1030 mb in the Panhandle will be well-positioned to push
the front effectively to the coast. However, with a mid-level
ridge of 590 dm holding over the Rio Grande Valley, drifting
slowly eastward, I expect we`ll lose our upper support for
convection as the front drives coastward. So, while rain potential
remains relatively high to the coast, it will be in an
increasingly narrow zone on the boundary and should wane by late
afternoon or early evening, leaving generally dry weather in its
wake. I`ll leave slight chance PoPs into the evening for any
lingering showers, but that`s about it.
The bigger factor to consider across the area in the wake of this
front will be temperatures cooling off through the day Friday,
along with breezy northwesterly winds carrying through the night
into Saturday.
Ridging will slide east of the area for early next week, which
will re-establish onshore flow, and begin a trend back towards
more summer-like, or at least early fall-like conditions in the
area. Rain chances will begin to creep back into the picture for
Monday afternoon as deep moisture improves, particularly near the
coast.
The next big change looks to be in the middle of the week with
another front sagging its way towards our area. This is at range,
and we still have the Friday front to get through, so it`s
probably not worth speculating too much at this time. For what
it`s worth, it appears this next front will not push through quite
as strongly, and may hang up somewhere over our area. This could
create a more drawn out stretch of rainier weather. But, again,
it`s probably not worth speculating too much at this range.
MARINE...
A tightening of the surface pressure gradient will result in an
strengthening of onshore surface winds overnight into tomorrow,
which should be accompanied by a slight increase in seas. On Friday
afternoon, a cold front approaches SE Texas with showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of its passage. Behind the front,
strong offshore winds will develop over the coastal waters Friday
night into Saturday with some wind gusts over 30 knots possible and
seas increasing to up to 7 to 9 feet through Saturday evening.
Caution and advisory flags will likely be required during this time.
By Sunday, the gradual building of surface high pressure back into
the area will reduce surface winds and diminish seas. Heading into
next week, we return to a weak to moderate onshore flow pattern.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 94 62 67 49 / 0 0 30 60 20
Houston (IAH) 73 90 72 76 54 / 0 0 10 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 87 79 83 63 / 0 0 10 60 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
837 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Clouds will overspread Illinois tonight as a weak storm system
arrives from the west. Light showers will begin to advance across
the region on Thursday. A cold front passing Thursday night into
Friday will bring more widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms. The front will also usher in our coldest air in a
long time, with some freezing temperatures possible Friday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
A short-wave trough lifting northeastward across Iowa has spread a
high overcast across central Illinois this evening. Further west,
regional radar mosaic reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
immediately beneath the wave over southwest Iowa, with scattered
showers further southward into Missouri along the trailing edge of
the feature. The showers across Missouri are tracking
northeastward: however, they will be encountering an unfavorable
environment across central Illinois as evidenced by very dry air
below 500mb on the 00z KILX upper air sounding. HRRR has been
consistently showing the showers dissipating as they approach, so
will maintain a dry forecast across the entire area through the
night. Given increased cloud cover and an E/SE wind of 5-10mph,
low temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than last
night...with readings mostly in the middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
A relatively weak storm complex in western Missouri will approach
Illinois overnight. A relatively dry air mass in place across
Illinois will keep rain at bay in central Illinois tonight, with
the primary result of the approaching complex just being
increasing clouds overnight. While we can`t rule out a few
sprinkles west of I-55 before sunrise, we kept a dry forecast
tonight. Lows will be about 10-15 degrees warmer than last night,
due to the cloud cover and steady southeast winds. Lows will be
in the mid to upper 50s.
Rain chances will increase from west to east on Thursday, as a
mid-level shortwave advances across IL from SW to NE. Instability
looks to be weak/marginal until late afternoon in our western
counties when MUCAPEs climb to 500 J/kg. Bulk shear will be
35-40KT west of Peoria to Springfield by sunset, which could help
a few storms produce some gusty winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
There is some model agreement that a brief break in the rain could
develop Thursday evening, before the cold front reaches western
Illinois toward 06z/1am. PoPs were increased to categorical
overnight into Friday morning, as the front traverses the area.
The timing of the FROPA will not be especially conducive for
severe storms, but the high shear-low CAPE environment could
allow some of the storms to pulse strong at times. Despite rain
chances extending from Thursday through Friday, rainfall amounts
should remain less than an inch in general.
One thing the models agree on are gusty south-southeast winds
ahead of the front Thursday night into Friday, then gusty W-NW
winds developing behind the front Friday afternoon. Sustained
winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph are likely with both the
southerly phase and the NW-erly phase. However, much colder air
will be ushered into the area on the NW flow. Highs on Friday will
be early in the day, followed by falling temperatures as rain
departs to the east by late afternoon.
Friday night looks to be our first attempt at freezing
temperatures for the Fall season. Frost will be limited due to
steady surface winds Friday night, but some areas could reach 32F
and freezing conditions. Anyone with delicate outdoor vegetation
should plan on taking actions to protect the plants before Friday
night.
Wind chills early Saturday morning will be below freezing, in the
20s. High temps on Saturday will struggle to climb into the mid
to upper 50s, with gusty west winds at 15-20 mph continuing the
wintry chill in the air.
Dry conditions look to continue this weekend through Monday
afternoon, under prevailing high surface pressure, as a deep upper
low churns over the western Great Lakes and NW Ontario. High
temperatures will rebound back into the low to mid 60s Sunday and
Monday, with colder air close by to the north.
The upper trough will shift east out of the western Great Lakes
Monday night, as the next trough progresses across the northern
Plains. A period of forcing for rain showers will be present in
the pre-trough air mass from Monday night through Tuesday, then
the upper trough axis will pass Tuesday night. Storm chances look
limited, so we kept thunder out of that portion of the forecast,
with just slight chances of rain during that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period. An
upper-level disturbance currently tracking across southwest Iowa
will spread mid/high clouds across central Illinois this evening.
Upstream radar imagery is showing a few light showers across
central Missouri: however, think these will dissipate as they
encounter drier air further northeast later this evening. As a
result, will maintain dry conditions with a high overcast at all
terminals tonight into Thursday morning. As a stronger storm
system slowly approaches from the west, ceilings will gradually
lower during the day Thursday, with showers developing west of
I-55 by mid to late afternoon. Have maintained VFR ceilings, but
introduced VCSH at KPIA after 20z accordingly. Lower clouds and
predominant showers will hold off until after 00z Fri.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
812 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Updated package to take down Red Flag Warning. Cold front is
moving through El Paso county and should pass through Pueblo by
2100 if not a little sooner. Seeing gusts up to around 50 mph
behind the front and have made adjustments to wind grids for
both timing and magnitude of speeds and gusts. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
...Sharply colder air, wind, and some snow for the region starting
later tonight...
Currently...
Skies were mostly clear across the region and it was warm. Temps at
2 pm were in the 80s across the lower plains and 70s on the divides.
Over the valleys, readings were in the 60s, with 50s and 40s in the
mountains. Winds over most of the region have been slow to
materialize, however over the central mountains at higher elevations,
it was quite gusty with 40 to 50 mph gusts being observed across the
higher terrain.
Rest of today and into Tonight...
Main concern is the cold front. Latest HRRR indicates the boundary
should cross the Palmer Divide during the 9-10 pm time frame, and
should reach the NM border by 3 am. Winds expected to be quite gusty
behind the front with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. Temperatures
will start dropping behind the boundary, with freezing temperatures
reaching the Palmer after 2 am.
As for snow, expect to see snow falling across the northern sections
of the central mountains after midnight, and this activity will drop
south with time. Snow will likely begin to fall across Teller and N
El Paso towards sunrise.
Thursday...
With snow expected to occur across N El Paso and Teller counties,
and it being an early season event, have decided to go with a snow
advisory for Teller and El Paso counties prior to sunrise and
lasting through the day Thursday. Snowfall amounts across Teller
will generally be 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts N side of
Pikes Peak. N El Paso will likely see 1 to 3" Dont think we will see
much on the roadways due to the very warm ground surfaces, however,
there is a pretty good chance we are going to see a band of heavy
snow move across the Pikes Peak region during the late morning/early
afternoon time period as the 700 mb front moves across, and this
could drop a quick inch or two of snow over the region.
It is going to be cold and windy across the plains tomorrow. The
strongest winds will be across the far eastern plains and eastern El
Paso county, with the least amount of wind across the Trinidad
region. Gusts to 45 mph will be likely. Temperatures will remain
steady or slowly drop across the region during the day light hours.
Wind chill readings over the plains will be in the 20s and 30s
tomorrow, wit teens in El Paso county.
As for snow on the rest of the plains, expect the best chance to
occur when the 700 mb forcing moves across the region during the
afternoon time period. The far eastern plains may not see any precip
until after 6 pm.
Max temps for the date of 10 October will likely occur at 12:01 AM
standard time across the plains. Min temps for the date will likely
occur at 11:59 pm standard time.
The San Luis Valley will be the warmest area tomorrow as max temps
will reach into the 50s. Borderline critical fire weather conditions
will be possible in the valley, especially across the southern tier
of the valley floor where winds will be the strongest. Overall
precip chances for the valley is low.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
...Very cold temperatures are anticipated from Thursday night into
Friday morning...
Initially, precipitation is expected to be on a decreasing trend
over the CWA Thursday evening as closed upper low shifts from
east-central Wyoming from late Thursday afternoon into
southeastern South Dakota Thursday night.
Primary meteorological focus during the longer term will be on the
projected very cold temperatures on tap for southern Colorado
from Thursday night into Friday morning with minimum temperature
values expected to drop into the teens, with even some positive
single digit readings possible over lower terrain locations
Thursday night/Friday morning as 1040+ MB surface high develops
over north-central Colorado. Therefore, have converted the Freeze
Watch to a Freeze Warning from Thursday evening into Friday
morning due to these meteorological trends.
From Friday into Friday night, dry conditions are expected over
southern Colorado as the closed upper low shifts into Minnesota.
Slowly moderating temperatures are also anticipated during this
time-frame.
Then, dry westerly component upper flow will allow basically dry
and warmer conditions to develop over the CWA from Saturday into
next Wednesday with warmest temperatures projected from later in
the weekend into early next week with maximum temperatures
climbing into the 70s over many eastern locations Sunday and
Monday.
In addition, the highest potential for gusty winds during the
longer term should be experienced from Thursday night into Friday
evening and then again by next Wednesday. At this time, the
highest potential for localized elevated fire weather concerns
during the longer term will be possible Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
...Strong storm will affect the plains starting tonight...
KCOS and KPUB
Strong cold front will move south across plains this evening,
crossing KCOS aoa 03-04 UTC and KPUB 04-05UTC. Cigs should remain at
VFR until after sunrise, then expect MVFR cigs with the strong north
to northeast winds during the afternoon time period. Some snow will
also reduce vis at KCOS, especially in the late morning and early
afternoon time period as a mid level front moves through. conditions
will likely improve later in the day.
KALS...
VFR with gusty sw winds tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 9 AM MDT Friday for
COZ083>089-093>099.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Thursday for
COZ081-082-084.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
717 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.UPDATE...
Will be canceling the Red Flag Warning for Mineral and Lyon
Counties (Zone 459). Wind gusts are in the 10-20 mph range with
humidities above 18% in many areas. HRRR guidance suggests winds
will remain similar though the evening with rising humidity, both
of which are below our critical fire weather thresholds.
Therefore the warning will be dropped early.
Looks like a cold night ahead. Coldest so far of the fall season
for many areas including Reno, Sparks, Carson City where mid to
upper 20s are likely even in urban downtown areas. We earlier
sent a heads up message on preparing irrigation, plants, and pets
for this cold weather. Don`t want to find myself slipping around
on sidewalk ice from sprinklers on my run tomorrow morning!
-Chris
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moving south of the forecast area will usher
much cooler temperatures into the region the next couple of
nights. Blustery conditions will continue south of Highway 50 this
evening before the winds decrease overnight. Gusty ridge top winds
will continue into Thursday. Plan for widespread freezes Thursday
and Friday mornings. Quieter weather will return next weekend
with mild and dry conditions.
DISCUSSION...
Very little has changed in the forecast reasoning today...thus the
forecast was changed very little.
An exiting area of upper level low pressure and its attendant
surface cold front will continue to move out of the area overnight.
Gusty surface winds are possible south of Highway 50 through the
evening. Effects of these gusty winds are covered in the Fire
Weather section below.
Gusty east winds will develop over the Sierra ridge tops this
evening and overnight and continue into Thursday. Strong low level
temperature and pressure gradients will help maintain gusty east
winds over Lake Tahoe tonight and Thursday. The Lake Wind Advisory
there will remain in effect through Thursday afternoon.
Cold air settles into the valleys overnight with widespread below
freezing temperatures. Many areas have seen temperatures below
freezing already...but this looks to be more in the hard freeze
realm...with even many urban sites in the 20s.
A low amplitude ridge develops for Thursday and Friday. This
should allow high temperatures to climb a bit...but stay well
below normal. Lighter winds will mean continued cold morning
lows.
A shortwave trough swings by to the north Saturday into Sunday.
While this should not produce any precipitation...we will see
increased cloud cover both days and an increase in winds for
Sunday.
Another weak ridge develops Monday. Then a trough offshore begins
to pump warmer air into the region Tuesday. Highs will be back
near normal (60s and 70s) for Monday through Wednesday. Some
solutions show a weak shortwave trough lifting northeast into
southern Nevada late Tuesday...but that should not bring any
precipitation to our area.
The next chance for substantial precipitation looks to be just
beyond the range of the forecast as a broad trough of low
pressure moves into the western U.S. late next week.
AVIATION...
Gusty northeast low level winds continue at most of the terminals
this evening and overnight. Surface winds will decrease late
tonight. At KMMH west to northwest winds will persist...but should
shift to the north and decrease this evening. Off the surface the
winds shift to the northeast and east this evening and overnight.
This is likely to induce low level wind shear at most of the
terminals this evening and overnight. Gusty ridge top winds
create turbulence along and west of the Sierra late tonight as
well.
Winds will decrease through the day Thursday as gradients lessen.
The strongest winds will persist along the ridge tops into early
Thursday evening.
VFR conditions and limited cloud cover will continue into the
weekend. There will be some increase in clouds Saturday and Sunday
north of Interstate 80...but no ceilings worse than VFR.
FIRE WEATHER...
A dry cold front has moved through most of the forecast area and is
currently working its way through southern Mono county. Across
southern Mono County, minimum humidity values are around 10% but
should increase once the front moves through and winds shift out of
the north. As such, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire
on time.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect across Mineral County through
this evening as northerly winds will continue to funnel through the
US-95 corridor into Walker Lake, Hawthorne, and Mina. Winds will
remain elevated in these areas through the evening and with dry air
filtering in behind the front critical fire weather conditions will
remain.
Very dry conditions are expected tonight into Friday as a dry
slot pushes in over the the higher elevations. This will bring poor
recoveries for the mid-slopes and ridges through the rest of the
week. Fuentes
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Lake Tahoe
in NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.UPDATE...
Shave out pops and weather in the 09-12Z time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The HRRR is keeping us quiet overnight. Updated obs and dew points
and with SE flow moisture will increase a bit. Patchy fog at
daybreak where clear, so not wide spread. Also low stratus clouds
will spread NE across deep E TX after daybreak. No other changes.
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a quiet evening and most of the overnight.
Toward daybreak we may see some light BR and then some MVFR decks
developing for a few hours into the mid and late morning hours.
Southerly winds will get cranking as any decks lift. Gusty in TX
along I-20 and KSHV too with S10-15G20-25KT. Aloft, winds will be
increasing speeds from the SW ahead of our next large scale low
and associated cold front. Wet weather ahead of a chill. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/
SHORT TERM.../now through Thursday night/
The main story in the short term period of the forecast will be
temperatures warming back well above normal through tomorrow, just
ahead of a rather significant cold front edging into the region
from the northwest late Thursday night (and also bring showers and
thunderstorms with it).
Temperatures are already warming back to above normal levels this
afternoon (although certainly far shy of the record heat we were
dealing with just a week ago), with today`s highs generally
ranging from the lower to upper 80s. Building southerly flow ahead
of big cold front already starting to plow south through the
Plains is responsible for this surge in temperatures and
associated gradual influx of better moisture originating from the
Gulf of Mexico. A lead disturbance ahead of the sharp upper level
trough driving the mentioned cold front may result in a few
showers skirting McCurtain County OK in the far northwest tonight
through midday tomorrow, but any significant chances of rain in
our region will mainly wait until tomorrow night. Before then, the
building southerly flow will bring in some lower clouds late
tonight into tomorrow morning, but there should be enough sun
midday through afternoon tomorrow to yield max temperatures around
90 degrees. Mixing of the strengthening flow down to the surface
tomorrow will result in southerly winds gusting over 20 mph
tomorrow in many areas, especially over eastern TX, but at this
point the thresholds for a lake wind advisory are not expected to
be met.
Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening to our northwest there
is expected to be a narrow time window for instability to
juxtapose with favorable wind shear just ahead of the incoming
cold front and in these areas the Storm Prediction Center is
advertising a Slight Risk for severe weather. Latest hi
resolution model guidance suggests this activity should congeal
into more of a squall line orientation that tries to edge into
extreme northwestern zones (mainly McCurtain Co OK) before the
cold front undercuts the favorable parameter space at the
surface and effectively ends the severe weather threat. So in
the far northwest edge of the Four State region there will be
a Marginal Risk for severe weather, mainly in the tomorrow
night time window, and some storms producing heavy downpours
and localized rain amounts to 3 inches cannot be ruled out as
well. The front should be quickly working through the Arklatex
between late tomorrow morning and Friday morning and the quick
drop in temperatures was weighted toward the more aggressive NAM
model, since it most often handles shallow cold frontal passages
best. /50/
LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
A deep upper trough centered over eastern SD and sw MN Friday
morning will slowly push an attended sfc front slowly swd across the
cwa. This will bring the coldest air of the season into the region,
initially as a shallow wedge of cold air creating a large area of
rain north of this front with perhaps enough large scale lift to
induce embedded tstms even as daytime temps remain steady to slowly
falling. Increasing nrly winds behind front may also prompt the need
for a LWA on Friday for mainly nw portions of area. However, any
threat of svr wx should be confined to prior to sunrise Friday due
to timing of day along with developing low lvl inversion with front,
in addition to better dynamics with upper low displaced well to the
north and movg into Great Lakes region, which will minimize svr
threat from redeveloping with sfc heating over srn portions of area
that could remain in warm sector beyond midday. What will exist will
be quite a steep temp gradient from north to south durg the day
Friday, where morning daytime highs up north will fall through the
50s durg the day and warm sector south of I-20 could rise to lower
or even mid 80s in some places.
In the wake of this strong front, zonal flow will increase and begin
to bring mid lvl moisture from Pacific streaming across the area,
Some of this moisture now ahead of schedule late Sat night into
Sunday with the question being whether moist layer thick enough to
generate rain that reaches the ground. Rainfall, if it occurs, will
be lgt and no instability to support any tstms so removing mention
early in week and gradually reintroducing mention of thunder as
temps begin to moderate back to seasonal and lapse rates
increase. /07/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 90 68 68 / 0 0 20 40
MLU 65 90 70 80 / 0 10 10 40
DEQ 65 85 54 58 / 0 20 70 60
TXK 66 88 60 62 / 0 10 40 50
ELD 64 89 69 72 / 0 10 20 40
TYR 70 90 57 60 / 0 0 50 50
GGG 69 90 62 65 / 0 0 30 50
LFK 69 90 68 68 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/50/07
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
821 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Winter storm forecast remains on track. Regional radar mosaic
shows heaviest snow is currently falling in a SW-NE oriented band
from far northeastern Wyoming into northwestern South Dakota with
some areas of lighter snow over the rest of northeastern Wyoming
and far western SD. The 00Z RAP sounding shows a dry layer from
700-500mb that will need be overcome before significant snow will
fall to the east of the Black Hills. It appears that will occur
around midnight or shortly after, coinciding with an increase in
mid-level frontogenesis and an increase in synoptic scale lift
due to jet-streak interaction. Some lightning currently noted near
Laramie WY as the next jet streak moves up from the southwest.
Still expect to see heavy snow develop over much of western South
Dakota later tonight with the heavy snow continuing into Thursday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Upper level analysis has deep sharp trof across the Northern
Rockies with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Significant upper
level system in the base of the trof is moving through Idaho at
the moment with ample cloud cover over the Northern Plains. Some
light precipitation has developed over northeastern Wyoming and
far northwestern South Dakota in the past couple of hours. At the
surface, strong cold front has moved south and east of the
forecast area, with breezy northwest winds behind it. Temperatures
are steadily falling into the 30s and 40s this afternoon.
A strong winter storm is on the doorstep of our forecast area,
with light snow just starting to develop over western portions of
the CWA. As the upper trof crosses the Northern Plains tonight,
snow will fall across much of the area. Snow will be heavy at
times across portions of northeast WY and western SD, with a
heavier band likely setting up over portions of western SD.
A tight pressure gradient will persist across much of the area,
especially the western SD plains, resulting in some blowing and
drifting snow all the way into Friday. Upslope enhanced snowfall
can be expected later tonight and Thursday, possibly Thursday
night as well, over the northern Black Hills area, where higher
amounts of a foot or more are likely before the storm tapers off.
As the upper trof moves east across the Plains late week, low
pressure will develop within the trof and generally track across
WY, southern SD/northern NE, and then intensifies as it moves
across eastern SD into northern MN. Some additional wrap-around
lighter snowfall looks likely later Thursday, Thursday night, and
into Friday as the low moves over and east of the area, especially
from the Black Hills eastward.
Generally, 5 to 12 inches of snowfall is expected across the
forecast area. Lighter amounts are expected across far south
central SD where some freezing precipitation is likely late
tonight into Thursday morning. Heavier amounts of 12 to locally 18
inches are possible across favored upslope areas of the northern
Black Hills. Heavier amounts of a foot to a little more are
possible across far northern South Dakota. Winter Storm Warnings
are in place for much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories
for far south central South Dakota.
Unseasonably cold air will remain across the area, with highs
mostly in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday and Friday and lows well
below freezing Thursday night and Friday night. At least a modest
warming trend is likely over the holiday weekend, with mainly dry
conditions, though temps will stay well below average in many
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 527 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019
IFR/LIFR conditions develop as snow expands across the region
tonight. Continued gusty northwest winds will cause reduced
visibilities from blowing snow. On Thursday morning, the heaviest
snow will start slowly shifting from west to east out of the area;
however, light snow will persist, as will the gusty winds and
blowing snow.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012-
013-024>031-041-042-072>074.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday
for SDZ014-032-043-044.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday
for SDZ046-047-049.
WY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>058-071.
&&
$$
Update...10
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...10