Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1049 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly slide east across the Canadian Maritimes through Friday, while a coastal storm meanders off the coast southeast of Long Island. Bands of rain will occasionally extend into areas mainly south and east of Albany through Friday. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels during this time, although daytime temperatures will be chilly south and east of Albany where clouds and occasional rain occur. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1050 PM EDT...This update is to retool the PoPs and light rain based on the latest KENX radar, and recent sfc and mesonet observations. Also the latest 3-km NAMnest and HRRR trends still are under playing the northwest light rain extent and we followed the latest radar trends. We increased the PoPs to likely values over the southern Berkshires, southern and central Taconics, and the southeast Catskills. Also, the sky cover was increased further north and west slightly based on the latest GOES-16 IR imagery. The light rain should diminish in the early morning, as the low wobbles a little bit to the south and east. Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of the Capital Region, and mid and upper 40s from the Tri Cities south and east with north to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday, the coastal low is expected to briefly retrograde westward during the day, before shifting back to the south and eventually southeast Thursday night into Friday. Increasing mid level frontogenesis should allow another band of light to moderate rainfall to extend into southeast areas in the afternoon. However, there could be a break in the morning, and from the Capital Region and areas north and west into the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region, there may be a period of clearing between mid morning and early afternoon before clouds increase again from the southeast. Assuming some midday breaks in the clouds occur, high temps may reach the lower/mid 60s in some of these areas, while remaining in the 50s across southeast areas where clouds and eventually rain occur. The rain may extend into the Capital Region and southern VT toward sunset. It will be breezy for southeast areas, where again north to northeast winds may gust up to 30 mph. Thursday night-Friday, a weakening band of rain may extend into the Capital Region, eastern Mohawk Valley and Saratoga region into southern VT Thursday evening, before weakening further as it tries to extend north and west. Occasional showers or rain will continue across the southern Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County possibly into the mid Hudson Valley and southeast Catskills. Forcing from the offshore low should begin shifting south and east Friday, so some areas of light rain or showers should become limited to southeast areas by afternoon, although can not rule out some pockets of drizzle, especially across higher terrain areas. Low clouds may actually expand north and west through the day as a low level southeast flow develops. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 40s, except for some 30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks, where some breaks in the clouds may occur early. Highs Friday mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60, slightly cooler than Thursday due to the expectation for more widespread low clouds developing. Friday night-Saturday, although coastal low should continue trending farther south and east of the region, low level moisture may tend to stream northwest ahead of the next approaching system from the west. This should lead to mostly cloudy skies Friday night through at least Saturday morning, and can not completely rule out some isolated light showers or patchy drizzle, especially across higher elevations. Some brief clearing could occur Saturday afternoon for some areas with narrow mid level ridging building east, but low level moisture may remain trapped and tough to scour out. Some showers with an approaching front may reach NW areas late in the afternoon. Lows Friday night mostly in the 40s, and highs Saturday in the mid 50s to lower 60s, although could be warmer should any breaks of sun develop. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the start of the extended period, a large mature cyclone will be located over the upper Midwest with a massive and stacked cutoff upper level low. The storm`s cold front will be located well ahead of this decaying storm system and will be moving across the Northeast for Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There won`t be much moisture with this system and the only forcing will be due to the surface boundary. As a result, a few brief and light rain showers are possible for Saturday night (especially western and northern areas), otherwise, the front will pass through dry with winds swifting from the west- southwest to west-northwest and clearing skies for Sunday. Lows will be in the 40s for Sat night. Even behind the boundary for Sunday, it won`t be too cooler, as sunshine and southwest flow aloft will allow for max temps to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region. High pressure will then be in control for Monday and Tuesday as the large cutoff low moves across southern Canada and our region is dominated by zonal flow aloft. There should be a decent amount of sunshine both days, allowing highs to reach into the 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the next system will be approaching from the Great Lakes. A surface low and frontal system will bring some rain showers to the region, with the best chance on Wednesday. With more clouds and showers around, temps will be held down in the 50s for Wednesday. Much cooler temps aloft are expected to move in for behind this system for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A coastal low will meander south and east of Long Island and New England tonight into tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPSF. Some mid clouds will lower to a lower stratus deck mainly at KPSF tonight at the 3.5-4 kft AGL range with VCSH groups used. KALB/KGFL will mainly have the mid and high clouds. Some light rain will be near KPOU with VFR/MVFR conditions until 04Z/THU. Some high stratus or mid level clouds will linger overnight. The mid and high clouds will gradually lower at KALB/KGFL late tomorrow morning into the afternoon with perhaps a shower getting close to KALB by 21Z/THU. Further south and east, the threat for light rain increases again at KPSF/KPOU with low VFR/MVFR conditions. The winds will be northeast to north at less than 10 kts tonight, but will increase from the north to northeast at 8-14 kts with some gusts close to 20-25 kts at KPSF/KPOU in the late morning through the afternoon. LLWS may be needed late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night at KPSF/KPOU if the winds decouple at the surface. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will slowly slide east across the Canadian Maritimes through Friday, while a coastal storm meanders off the coast southeast of Long Island. Bands of rain will occasionally extend into areas mainly south and east of Albany through Friday. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels during this time, although daytime temperatures will be chilly south and east of Albany where clouds and occasional rain occur. RH will increase to 90-100 percent tonight, then fall to 30-45 percent across the southwest Adirondacks, and 45-65 percent elsewhere (highest across Litchfield County and mid Hudson Valley) Thursday afternoon. North to northeast winds will average 5-15 mph tonight into Thursday, except stronger, 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts through Friday will range from one tenth of an inch or less from Albany and points north and west, with one tenth to one half inch to the south and east, except for amounts of one half inch to up to 1.5 inches across the southern Berkshires, southern Taconics and central/southern Litchfield County. This will be a much needed rainfall for southeast areas, with no significant hydrologic issues expected. Some additional light showers will be possible this weekend associated with a cold frontal passage. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 1915 UTC Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong trough digging into the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front stretched from KMHE to KBFF with large area of stratus behind it. Movement has slowed over the daylight hours, but will be blasting across the area tonight. Several weather impacts possible over the next 24 hours including widespread killing freeze, accumulating snow and strong winds. Confidence is high that the entire CWA will see a killing freeze by Friday morning. As cold front sweeps into area after midnight, temperatures will plummet rapidly across the western half of the CWA. Clouds and strong winds may limit magnitude of cold, but as skies clear and winds relax on Thursday night a prolonged period of sub freezing temperatures is fairly certain, with probabilities based on available datasets indicating chance of low temps below 28 degrees 100 percent most areas, with southeast CWA around 80 percent. Given this agreement on the magnitude of cold expected will upgrade freeze watch to warning soon. Next concern is potential for winter weather and first snow of the season. Think precipitation threat will come in two phases, first with fropa tonight and then late tomorrow morning as short wave trough moves across CWA. Precipitation tonight is going to be characterized by fairly shallow processes under a strong inversion around H7. Lift with the front itself, along with low level frontogenesis and shallow instability will provide necessary lift, but may be more of a drizzle or very light rain as opposed to much in the way of meaningful precipitation. Since precipitation forcing is relegated to the low levels, introducing ice into this area looks questionable and think as temperatures plummet in the west that a light freezing rain will be primary precip type as opposed to snow. Any freezing precipitation will be fairly short lived as cold front moves south and given the very warm surfaces out there doubt there will be any significant accumulations. Will be a lull in precipitation until closer to 18z when H5 trough sweeps across the plains. While best forcing will be to the north of the area, favorable 650 mb frontogenesis and elevated instability profile support a narrow band of moderate snow forming and moving rapidly across area. If this does develop, snowfall rates will be high, but area will move very quickly limiting the amounts. Finally, winds will be an issue across the area through the afternoon on Friday. With strong pressure rises with the front and 40-45kts of flow just off the surface, expect to see period of very strong winds as front passes tonight. With very dry soils indicated on Nasa Sport LIS database will likely see period of blowing dust in southwest CWA as well. Thankfully, impact should be low given the time of day. Northerly winds will sustain around 30 mph throughout the day, further increasing the impacts of the cold temps. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Friday morning through Wednesday night, a quiet and cool extended forecast. Fiday`s upper level pattern will be similar to Thursday`s despite the front exiting the area, especially in respects to the pressure gradient. So bumped winds up higher than what FB put into the grids with MOS guidance. Friday highs will only climb to the 40s, but Saturday onward, expect daily highs in the 60s. Friday and Saturday night lows will be in the low to upper 20s. Sunday morning through Wednesday morning we will see lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Not much weather to talk about in the extended after Thursday`s event. Expecting frost to prevail over the extended period. Monday`s shortwave looks less likely as latest guidance came in, but kept NBM in for the extended pops. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 VFR Conditions expected through 00z, but conditions will begin to worsen from the north as a powerful cold front sweeps across the area between 05-09Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase to nearly 30 kts with higher gusts, and a MVFR possibly IFR ceiling will move into area behind it. Best chance for precipitation is at MCK which will stay rain through the period. At GLD, precip chances are small, but could see period of very light -FZDZ between 09-12Z. Probability of this becoming a widespread issue is low. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027. Freeze Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Friday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for COZ090>092. Freeze Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079-080. Freeze Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...EV AVIATION...JRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
936 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .DISCUSSION... High pressure over New England and deepening low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will foster a tightening pressure gradient tonight. Sfc winds will probably struggle to decouple and the additional mixing coupled with continued warm air advection will lead to much warmer temperatures tonight. Made some minor tweaks to MinT, wind, wind gusts and sky grids. Could be some very light showers on Thursday as low level mstr increases. Rest of the forecast looks good. Frontal timing still looks on track for Friday with much colder temperatures Friday afternoon through Sunday. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/ AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this evening, but we could see some MVFR decks develop by early morning and potentially continue into late morning before rising to VFR criteria once again. Main change in this TAF package was to account for the wind gusts that look possible mostly between 02-08Z across CXO, UTS, and CLL. Short term guidance such as the HRRR and ARW all indicate the gusty conditions into the early morning hours before lowering in speed. The tight pressure gradient remains over the region tomorrow, and we could see some winds once again between 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast across all terminals. Hathaway PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/... DISCUSSION... While the weather for the upcoming week doesn`t look terribly impactful, it`s not likely to be stagnant, either. Instead, we`ll wobble between summer and fall-like conditions as fronts make their way through the area, with onshore flow returning after the fronts dissipate. Look for temperatures to reach back into the 90s at their hottest, while northern parts of the area may see their first sub-50 degree temperatures of the fall. - Expect a trend towards warmer and more humid conditions through tomorrow. - Away from the coast, Friday`s temperatures may be warmest before sunrise, as colder air will swoop in behind a cold front crossing the area Friday morning. - Look for things to gradually warm into next week until another front arrives in the middle of next week. SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... Radar shows a couple showers in Colorado and Wharton counties, but for the most part, the low level moisture - and by extension, our ability to tap into any instability, is pretty limited. Not really looking for anything different through tomorrow, even though onshore flow will continue to slowly boost dewpoints in the area. Though we may not be able to manage more spontaneous convection - we are nearly in mid-October, after all - look for things to begin changing from the northwest through the night tonight. As the oncoming cold front approaches, we`ll see chances for showers or even a thunderstorm start to creep upwards through the night. By dawn, the front itself will be right on our doorstep, beginning its push across Southeast Texas. LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... Look for the front to sweep across Southeast Texas through Friday morning, reaching the coast around mid-day. A surface high of up to around 1030 mb in the Panhandle will be well-positioned to push the front effectively to the coast. However, with a mid-level ridge of 590 dm holding over the Rio Grande Valley, drifting slowly eastward, I expect we`ll lose our upper support for convection as the front drives coastward. So, while rain potential remains relatively high to the coast, it will be in an increasingly narrow zone on the boundary and should wane by late afternoon or early evening, leaving generally dry weather in its wake. I`ll leave slight chance PoPs into the evening for any lingering showers, but that`s about it. The bigger factor to consider across the area in the wake of this front will be temperatures cooling off through the day Friday, along with breezy northwesterly winds carrying through the night into Saturday. Ridging will slide east of the area for early next week, which will re-establish onshore flow, and begin a trend back towards more summer-like, or at least early fall-like conditions in the area. Rain chances will begin to creep back into the picture for Monday afternoon as deep moisture improves, particularly near the coast. The next big change looks to be in the middle of the week with another front sagging its way towards our area. This is at range, and we still have the Friday front to get through, so it`s probably not worth speculating too much at this time. For what it`s worth, it appears this next front will not push through quite as strongly, and may hang up somewhere over our area. This could create a more drawn out stretch of rainier weather. But, again, it`s probably not worth speculating too much at this range. MARINE... A tightening of the surface pressure gradient will result in an strengthening of onshore surface winds overnight into tomorrow, which should be accompanied by a slight increase in seas. On Friday afternoon, a cold front approaches SE Texas with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of its passage. Behind the front, strong offshore winds will develop over the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday with some wind gusts over 30 knots possible and seas increasing to up to 7 to 9 feet through Saturday evening. Caution and advisory flags will likely be required during this time. By Sunday, the gradual building of surface high pressure back into the area will reduce surface winds and diminish seas. Heading into next week, we return to a weak to moderate onshore flow pattern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 94 62 67 49 / 0 0 30 60 20 Houston (IAH) 73 90 72 76 54 / 0 0 10 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 79 87 79 83 63 / 0 0 10 60 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
837 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Clouds will overspread Illinois tonight as a weak storm system arrives from the west. Light showers will begin to advance across the region on Thursday. A cold front passing Thursday night into Friday will bring more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms. The front will also usher in our coldest air in a long time, with some freezing temperatures possible Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A short-wave trough lifting northeastward across Iowa has spread a high overcast across central Illinois this evening. Further west, regional radar mosaic reveals a cluster of thunderstorms immediately beneath the wave over southwest Iowa, with scattered showers further southward into Missouri along the trailing edge of the feature. The showers across Missouri are tracking northeastward: however, they will be encountering an unfavorable environment across central Illinois as evidenced by very dry air below 500mb on the 00z KILX upper air sounding. HRRR has been consistently showing the showers dissipating as they approach, so will maintain a dry forecast across the entire area through the night. Given increased cloud cover and an E/SE wind of 5-10mph, low temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than last night...with readings mostly in the middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A relatively weak storm complex in western Missouri will approach Illinois overnight. A relatively dry air mass in place across Illinois will keep rain at bay in central Illinois tonight, with the primary result of the approaching complex just being increasing clouds overnight. While we can`t rule out a few sprinkles west of I-55 before sunrise, we kept a dry forecast tonight. Lows will be about 10-15 degrees warmer than last night, due to the cloud cover and steady southeast winds. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. Rain chances will increase from west to east on Thursday, as a mid-level shortwave advances across IL from SW to NE. Instability looks to be weak/marginal until late afternoon in our western counties when MUCAPEs climb to 500 J/kg. Bulk shear will be 35-40KT west of Peoria to Springfield by sunset, which could help a few storms produce some gusty winds. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 There is some model agreement that a brief break in the rain could develop Thursday evening, before the cold front reaches western Illinois toward 06z/1am. PoPs were increased to categorical overnight into Friday morning, as the front traverses the area. The timing of the FROPA will not be especially conducive for severe storms, but the high shear-low CAPE environment could allow some of the storms to pulse strong at times. Despite rain chances extending from Thursday through Friday, rainfall amounts should remain less than an inch in general. One thing the models agree on are gusty south-southeast winds ahead of the front Thursday night into Friday, then gusty W-NW winds developing behind the front Friday afternoon. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph are likely with both the southerly phase and the NW-erly phase. However, much colder air will be ushered into the area on the NW flow. Highs on Friday will be early in the day, followed by falling temperatures as rain departs to the east by late afternoon. Friday night looks to be our first attempt at freezing temperatures for the Fall season. Frost will be limited due to steady surface winds Friday night, but some areas could reach 32F and freezing conditions. Anyone with delicate outdoor vegetation should plan on taking actions to protect the plants before Friday night. Wind chills early Saturday morning will be below freezing, in the 20s. High temps on Saturday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 50s, with gusty west winds at 15-20 mph continuing the wintry chill in the air. Dry conditions look to continue this weekend through Monday afternoon, under prevailing high surface pressure, as a deep upper low churns over the western Great Lakes and NW Ontario. High temperatures will rebound back into the low to mid 60s Sunday and Monday, with colder air close by to the north. The upper trough will shift east out of the western Great Lakes Monday night, as the next trough progresses across the northern Plains. A period of forcing for rain showers will be present in the pre-trough air mass from Monday night through Tuesday, then the upper trough axis will pass Tuesday night. Storm chances look limited, so we kept thunder out of that portion of the forecast, with just slight chances of rain during that time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period. An upper-level disturbance currently tracking across southwest Iowa will spread mid/high clouds across central Illinois this evening. Upstream radar imagery is showing a few light showers across central Missouri: however, think these will dissipate as they encounter drier air further northeast later this evening. As a result, will maintain dry conditions with a high overcast at all terminals tonight into Thursday morning. As a stronger storm system slowly approaches from the west, ceilings will gradually lower during the day Thursday, with showers developing west of I-55 by mid to late afternoon. Have maintained VFR ceilings, but introduced VCSH at KPIA after 20z accordingly. Lower clouds and predominant showers will hold off until after 00z Fri. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
812 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Updated package to take down Red Flag Warning. Cold front is moving through El Paso county and should pass through Pueblo by 2100 if not a little sooner. Seeing gusts up to around 50 mph behind the front and have made adjustments to wind grids for both timing and magnitude of speeds and gusts. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 ...Sharply colder air, wind, and some snow for the region starting later tonight... Currently... Skies were mostly clear across the region and it was warm. Temps at 2 pm were in the 80s across the lower plains and 70s on the divides. Over the valleys, readings were in the 60s, with 50s and 40s in the mountains. Winds over most of the region have been slow to materialize, however over the central mountains at higher elevations, it was quite gusty with 40 to 50 mph gusts being observed across the higher terrain. Rest of today and into Tonight... Main concern is the cold front. Latest HRRR indicates the boundary should cross the Palmer Divide during the 9-10 pm time frame, and should reach the NM border by 3 am. Winds expected to be quite gusty behind the front with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. Temperatures will start dropping behind the boundary, with freezing temperatures reaching the Palmer after 2 am. As for snow, expect to see snow falling across the northern sections of the central mountains after midnight, and this activity will drop south with time. Snow will likely begin to fall across Teller and N El Paso towards sunrise. Thursday... With snow expected to occur across N El Paso and Teller counties, and it being an early season event, have decided to go with a snow advisory for Teller and El Paso counties prior to sunrise and lasting through the day Thursday. Snowfall amounts across Teller will generally be 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts N side of Pikes Peak. N El Paso will likely see 1 to 3" Dont think we will see much on the roadways due to the very warm ground surfaces, however, there is a pretty good chance we are going to see a band of heavy snow move across the Pikes Peak region during the late morning/early afternoon time period as the 700 mb front moves across, and this could drop a quick inch or two of snow over the region. It is going to be cold and windy across the plains tomorrow. The strongest winds will be across the far eastern plains and eastern El Paso county, with the least amount of wind across the Trinidad region. Gusts to 45 mph will be likely. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly drop across the region during the day light hours. Wind chill readings over the plains will be in the 20s and 30s tomorrow, wit teens in El Paso county. As for snow on the rest of the plains, expect the best chance to occur when the 700 mb forcing moves across the region during the afternoon time period. The far eastern plains may not see any precip until after 6 pm. Max temps for the date of 10 October will likely occur at 12:01 AM standard time across the plains. Min temps for the date will likely occur at 11:59 pm standard time. The San Luis Valley will be the warmest area tomorrow as max temps will reach into the 50s. Borderline critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the valley, especially across the southern tier of the valley floor where winds will be the strongest. Overall precip chances for the valley is low. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 ...Very cold temperatures are anticipated from Thursday night into Friday morning... Initially, precipitation is expected to be on a decreasing trend over the CWA Thursday evening as closed upper low shifts from east-central Wyoming from late Thursday afternoon into southeastern South Dakota Thursday night. Primary meteorological focus during the longer term will be on the projected very cold temperatures on tap for southern Colorado from Thursday night into Friday morning with minimum temperature values expected to drop into the teens, with even some positive single digit readings possible over lower terrain locations Thursday night/Friday morning as 1040+ MB surface high develops over north-central Colorado. Therefore, have converted the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning from Thursday evening into Friday morning due to these meteorological trends. From Friday into Friday night, dry conditions are expected over southern Colorado as the closed upper low shifts into Minnesota. Slowly moderating temperatures are also anticipated during this time-frame. Then, dry westerly component upper flow will allow basically dry and warmer conditions to develop over the CWA from Saturday into next Wednesday with warmest temperatures projected from later in the weekend into early next week with maximum temperatures climbing into the 70s over many eastern locations Sunday and Monday. In addition, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term should be experienced from Thursday night into Friday evening and then again by next Wednesday. At this time, the highest potential for localized elevated fire weather concerns during the longer term will be possible Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 334 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 ...Strong storm will affect the plains starting tonight... KCOS and KPUB Strong cold front will move south across plains this evening, crossing KCOS aoa 03-04 UTC and KPUB 04-05UTC. Cigs should remain at VFR until after sunrise, then expect MVFR cigs with the strong north to northeast winds during the afternoon time period. Some snow will also reduce vis at KCOS, especially in the late morning and early afternoon time period as a mid level front moves through. conditions will likely improve later in the day. KALS... VFR with gusty sw winds tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ083>089-093>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ081-082-084. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ084. && $$ UPDATE...KT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
717 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Will be canceling the Red Flag Warning for Mineral and Lyon Counties (Zone 459). Wind gusts are in the 10-20 mph range with humidities above 18% in many areas. HRRR guidance suggests winds will remain similar though the evening with rising humidity, both of which are below our critical fire weather thresholds. Therefore the warning will be dropped early. Looks like a cold night ahead. Coldest so far of the fall season for many areas including Reno, Sparks, Carson City where mid to upper 20s are likely even in urban downtown areas. We earlier sent a heads up message on preparing irrigation, plants, and pets for this cold weather. Don`t want to find myself slipping around on sidewalk ice from sprinklers on my run tomorrow morning! -Chris && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019/ SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front moving south of the forecast area will usher much cooler temperatures into the region the next couple of nights. Blustery conditions will continue south of Highway 50 this evening before the winds decrease overnight. Gusty ridge top winds will continue into Thursday. Plan for widespread freezes Thursday and Friday mornings. Quieter weather will return next weekend with mild and dry conditions. DISCUSSION... Very little has changed in the forecast reasoning today...thus the forecast was changed very little. An exiting area of upper level low pressure and its attendant surface cold front will continue to move out of the area overnight. Gusty surface winds are possible south of Highway 50 through the evening. Effects of these gusty winds are covered in the Fire Weather section below. Gusty east winds will develop over the Sierra ridge tops this evening and overnight and continue into Thursday. Strong low level temperature and pressure gradients will help maintain gusty east winds over Lake Tahoe tonight and Thursday. The Lake Wind Advisory there will remain in effect through Thursday afternoon. Cold air settles into the valleys overnight with widespread below freezing temperatures. Many areas have seen temperatures below freezing already...but this looks to be more in the hard freeze realm...with even many urban sites in the 20s. A low amplitude ridge develops for Thursday and Friday. This should allow high temperatures to climb a bit...but stay well below normal. Lighter winds will mean continued cold morning lows. A shortwave trough swings by to the north Saturday into Sunday. While this should not produce any precipitation...we will see increased cloud cover both days and an increase in winds for Sunday. Another weak ridge develops Monday. Then a trough offshore begins to pump warmer air into the region Tuesday. Highs will be back near normal (60s and 70s) for Monday through Wednesday. Some solutions show a weak shortwave trough lifting northeast into southern Nevada late Tuesday...but that should not bring any precipitation to our area. The next chance for substantial precipitation looks to be just beyond the range of the forecast as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the western U.S. late next week. AVIATION... Gusty northeast low level winds continue at most of the terminals this evening and overnight. Surface winds will decrease late tonight. At KMMH west to northwest winds will persist...but should shift to the north and decrease this evening. Off the surface the winds shift to the northeast and east this evening and overnight. This is likely to induce low level wind shear at most of the terminals this evening and overnight. Gusty ridge top winds create turbulence along and west of the Sierra late tonight as well. Winds will decrease through the day Thursday as gradients lessen. The strongest winds will persist along the ridge tops into early Thursday evening. VFR conditions and limited cloud cover will continue into the weekend. There will be some increase in clouds Saturday and Sunday north of Interstate 80...but no ceilings worse than VFR. FIRE WEATHER... A dry cold front has moved through most of the forecast area and is currently working its way through southern Mono county. Across southern Mono County, minimum humidity values are around 10% but should increase once the front moves through and winds shift out of the north. As such, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire on time. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect across Mineral County through this evening as northerly winds will continue to funnel through the US-95 corridor into Walker Lake, Hawthorne, and Mina. Winds will remain elevated in these areas through the evening and with dry air filtering in behind the front critical fire weather conditions will remain. Very dry conditions are expected tonight into Friday as a dry slot pushes in over the the higher elevations. This will bring poor recoveries for the mid-slopes and ridges through the rest of the week. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Shave out pops and weather in the 09-12Z time frame. && .SHORT TERM... The HRRR is keeping us quiet overnight. Updated obs and dew points and with SE flow moisture will increase a bit. Patchy fog at daybreak where clear, so not wide spread. Also low stratus clouds will spread NE across deep E TX after daybreak. No other changes. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, a quiet evening and most of the overnight. Toward daybreak we may see some light BR and then some MVFR decks developing for a few hours into the mid and late morning hours. Southerly winds will get cranking as any decks lift. Gusty in TX along I-20 and KSHV too with S10-15G20-25KT. Aloft, winds will be increasing speeds from the SW ahead of our next large scale low and associated cold front. Wet weather ahead of a chill. /24/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/ SHORT TERM.../now through Thursday night/ The main story in the short term period of the forecast will be temperatures warming back well above normal through tomorrow, just ahead of a rather significant cold front edging into the region from the northwest late Thursday night (and also bring showers and thunderstorms with it). Temperatures are already warming back to above normal levels this afternoon (although certainly far shy of the record heat we were dealing with just a week ago), with today`s highs generally ranging from the lower to upper 80s. Building southerly flow ahead of big cold front already starting to plow south through the Plains is responsible for this surge in temperatures and associated gradual influx of better moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico. A lead disturbance ahead of the sharp upper level trough driving the mentioned cold front may result in a few showers skirting McCurtain County OK in the far northwest tonight through midday tomorrow, but any significant chances of rain in our region will mainly wait until tomorrow night. Before then, the building southerly flow will bring in some lower clouds late tonight into tomorrow morning, but there should be enough sun midday through afternoon tomorrow to yield max temperatures around 90 degrees. Mixing of the strengthening flow down to the surface tomorrow will result in southerly winds gusting over 20 mph tomorrow in many areas, especially over eastern TX, but at this point the thresholds for a lake wind advisory are not expected to be met. Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening to our northwest there is expected to be a narrow time window for instability to juxtapose with favorable wind shear just ahead of the incoming cold front and in these areas the Storm Prediction Center is advertising a Slight Risk for severe weather. Latest hi resolution model guidance suggests this activity should congeal into more of a squall line orientation that tries to edge into extreme northwestern zones (mainly McCurtain Co OK) before the cold front undercuts the favorable parameter space at the surface and effectively ends the severe weather threat. So in the far northwest edge of the Four State region there will be a Marginal Risk for severe weather, mainly in the tomorrow night time window, and some storms producing heavy downpours and localized rain amounts to 3 inches cannot be ruled out as well. The front should be quickly working through the Arklatex between late tomorrow morning and Friday morning and the quick drop in temperatures was weighted toward the more aggressive NAM model, since it most often handles shallow cold frontal passages best. /50/ LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ A deep upper trough centered over eastern SD and sw MN Friday morning will slowly push an attended sfc front slowly swd across the cwa. This will bring the coldest air of the season into the region, initially as a shallow wedge of cold air creating a large area of rain north of this front with perhaps enough large scale lift to induce embedded tstms even as daytime temps remain steady to slowly falling. Increasing nrly winds behind front may also prompt the need for a LWA on Friday for mainly nw portions of area. However, any threat of svr wx should be confined to prior to sunrise Friday due to timing of day along with developing low lvl inversion with front, in addition to better dynamics with upper low displaced well to the north and movg into Great Lakes region, which will minimize svr threat from redeveloping with sfc heating over srn portions of area that could remain in warm sector beyond midday. What will exist will be quite a steep temp gradient from north to south durg the day Friday, where morning daytime highs up north will fall through the 50s durg the day and warm sector south of I-20 could rise to lower or even mid 80s in some places. In the wake of this strong front, zonal flow will increase and begin to bring mid lvl moisture from Pacific streaming across the area, Some of this moisture now ahead of schedule late Sat night into Sunday with the question being whether moist layer thick enough to generate rain that reaches the ground. Rainfall, if it occurs, will be lgt and no instability to support any tstms so removing mention early in week and gradually reintroducing mention of thunder as temps begin to moderate back to seasonal and lapse rates increase. /07/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 90 68 68 / 0 0 20 40 MLU 65 90 70 80 / 0 10 10 40 DEQ 65 85 54 58 / 0 20 70 60 TXK 66 88 60 62 / 0 10 40 50 ELD 64 89 69 72 / 0 10 20 40 TYR 70 90 57 60 / 0 0 50 50 GGG 69 90 62 65 / 0 0 30 50 LFK 69 90 68 68 / 0 0 10 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/50/07
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
821 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Winter storm forecast remains on track. Regional radar mosaic shows heaviest snow is currently falling in a SW-NE oriented band from far northeastern Wyoming into northwestern South Dakota with some areas of lighter snow over the rest of northeastern Wyoming and far western SD. The 00Z RAP sounding shows a dry layer from 700-500mb that will need be overcome before significant snow will fall to the east of the Black Hills. It appears that will occur around midnight or shortly after, coinciding with an increase in mid-level frontogenesis and an increase in synoptic scale lift due to jet-streak interaction. Some lightning currently noted near Laramie WY as the next jet streak moves up from the southwest. Still expect to see heavy snow develop over much of western South Dakota later tonight with the heavy snow continuing into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Upper level analysis has deep sharp trof across the Northern Rockies with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Significant upper level system in the base of the trof is moving through Idaho at the moment with ample cloud cover over the Northern Plains. Some light precipitation has developed over northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota in the past couple of hours. At the surface, strong cold front has moved south and east of the forecast area, with breezy northwest winds behind it. Temperatures are steadily falling into the 30s and 40s this afternoon. A strong winter storm is on the doorstep of our forecast area, with light snow just starting to develop over western portions of the CWA. As the upper trof crosses the Northern Plains tonight, snow will fall across much of the area. Snow will be heavy at times across portions of northeast WY and western SD, with a heavier band likely setting up over portions of western SD. A tight pressure gradient will persist across much of the area, especially the western SD plains, resulting in some blowing and drifting snow all the way into Friday. Upslope enhanced snowfall can be expected later tonight and Thursday, possibly Thursday night as well, over the northern Black Hills area, where higher amounts of a foot or more are likely before the storm tapers off. As the upper trof moves east across the Plains late week, low pressure will develop within the trof and generally track across WY, southern SD/northern NE, and then intensifies as it moves across eastern SD into northern MN. Some additional wrap-around lighter snowfall looks likely later Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday as the low moves over and east of the area, especially from the Black Hills eastward. Generally, 5 to 12 inches of snowfall is expected across the forecast area. Lighter amounts are expected across far south central SD where some freezing precipitation is likely late tonight into Thursday morning. Heavier amounts of 12 to locally 18 inches are possible across favored upslope areas of the northern Black Hills. Heavier amounts of a foot to a little more are possible across far northern South Dakota. Winter Storm Warnings are in place for much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories for far south central South Dakota. Unseasonably cold air will remain across the area, with highs mostly in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday and Friday and lows well below freezing Thursday night and Friday night. At least a modest warming trend is likely over the holiday weekend, with mainly dry conditions, though temps will stay well below average in many areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 527 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 IFR/LIFR conditions develop as snow expands across the region tonight. Continued gusty northwest winds will cause reduced visibilities from blowing snow. On Thursday morning, the heaviest snow will start slowly shifting from west to east out of the area; however, light snow will persist, as will the gusty winds and blowing snow. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012- 013-024>031-041-042-072>074. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday for SDZ014-032-043-044. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>058-071. && $$ Update...10 DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...10