Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/05/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
653 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 At 2 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures ranged from the mid-40s to mid-50s. The latest RAP continues to show that the low ceilings will scatter out west of the Mississippi River between 4 PM and 7 PM and 7 PM and 10 PM for the remainder of the area. While we will be losing the low clouds temporarily, the mid and high clouds will be quickly moving into the region ahead of a negatively tilted short wave trough. The rain associated with this system will move into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa around midnight and reach the Mississippi River around 3 AM. With precipitable water between 1 and 1.5 inches, the rain could be heavy at times. Rain totals will range from 1 to 1.5 inches from southeast Minnesota into north- central Wisconsin and from a half to 1 inch elsewhere. The HREF indicates that a few locations could see anywhere from 2 to 2.25 inches. Fortunately, this rain will be falling on to areas which could take in some water, so not anticipating any flash flooding. While there is not much CAPE, there is some negative EPV and this may result in scattered storms. None of these storms are expected to become severe. On Saturday afternoon, the rain will be gradually ending from the west. The winds will shift to the southwest and remain in the 15 to 25 mph range. There will be even some gusts up to 30 mph. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 The shortwave trough quickly pulls to the north and east Saturday night with clearing skies. However, lingering cyclonic flow aloft as a secondary trough drops southeast on Sunday/Sunday night may keep more clouds around across northern WI and perhaps a few showers. For the first half of next week, a welcome period of dry weather is in store as high pressure drifts east across the MS Valley. A gradual warming trend will take place through mid-week as the surface high shifts east and return flow develops with highs back into the 60s and possibly 70s in some spots. Another upper trough will drag a cold front through along with increased rain chances late in the week, although confidence remains somewhat low on the evolution of this system. Ensemble guidance does, however, favor a period of below average temps behind the front late next week into the weekend with the potential for the first widespread freeze/frost for the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Ceilings at KRST should finally break out of MVFR around 00Z, so set ceilings to 5k ft at the start of the TAFs. VFR ceilings expected at both sites this evening, with rain chances moving in overnight ahead of an approaching surface low. Ceilings gradually lower overnight becoming MVFR for both KRST and KLSE by Saturday morning. Strong south to southeast winds expected ahead of a cold front as a tightened pressure gradient spreads over the area on Saturday. Wind shear concerns grow by mid morning ahead of the approaching front. Although it will be breezy at the surface, winds between 45 to 50 knots are expected at 2k ft through morning/early afternoon. A brief period of IFR ceilings possible at KRST, with KLSE likely remaining low end MVFR by early afternoon. Rain looks to move out by the afternoon hours, with perhaps a few vicinity showers lingering. Kept thunder mention out as instability looks limited. Ceilings should lift to VFR criteria closer to the end of the TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Rivers are rising or high in many locations and some minor flooding is occurring or forecast. With the additional rainfall up to around an inch expected Saturday, more rises will occur into the new week. Each successive rain event without recovery time is pushing the water system. Remarkably, much of the area is in the top 5 wettest years on record /125 years of records/...again. Dont expect the rivers to get down to seasonal normal levels this fall. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Batzek HYDROLOGY...Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1043 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sink southward and into the forecast tonight bring an end to the recent heat. A few showers or thunderstorms could accompany the front. The front will slowly move farther south and west Saturday but cloudiness and some light shower activity may remain, along with much cooler conditions. Another front will move into the region late Monday into Tuesday and provide a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, followed by fair conditions with seasonal temperatures during the middle to late part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A backdoor cold front will move into the forecast area tonight. High pressure behind the front centered in the Great Lakes Region will push cooler air into the forecast area. Strong surface convergence will occur near the front but lingering upper ridging will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage. The HRRR suggested scattered coverage. The upper ridging and associated relatively high mid-level temperatures along with the nocturnal timing should result in weak instability with a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to steadily fall late tonight as a cold air damming regime develops with northeasterly surface winds and southeasterly h85 winds resulting in low clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A backdoor cold front will push southward out the forecast area Saturday morning. Cool, northerly air will continue to feed into the forecast area through the day and mostly cloudy skies will prevent much diurnal heating. Daytime temperatures will likely be around 25 degrees lower than the previous day. The NAM model guidance is cooler than most and is likely handling the cold air damming set up the best. Some erosion of the wedge is possible across the southern forecast area given that the parent high is not as strong as a classic CAD event and the cloud layer is likely too shallow to produce precipitation for the majority of the day. The central and northern FA should see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The southern portion of the forecast area is less certain but should be between the low 70s and low 80s. Mostly cloudy skies should continue overnight preventing ideal radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday, the parent high shifts off of the New England coast allowing for moist, easterly flow over the forecast area. This will help to erode the wedge conditions and support a chance of rain, with highest rain chances to the south and east. With the warmer onshore flow and eroding cloudiness, daytime temperatures will be warmer. Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper-level trough and surface front should move through the Southeast late Monday into Tuesday. Models have been less progressive with the front which may slow or stall as it reaches the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will build into the Northeast again by Tuesday night and may end up pushing the front through as another backdoor cold front. Warm advection ahead of the front and the frontal passage itself will support a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Monday through Tuesday night. Though chances are low (generally 30% or less) given a still relatively dry air mass and mid-level ridging. Fair conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected behind the front for Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions lowering to MVFR for much of the period. Cold front currently across the northern Midlands and will move into the terminals over the next couple of hours then south of the area around daybreak. WSR-88D imagery shows a few showers and thunderstorms in far southeastern NC and continue to expect scattered showers around the terminals through daybreak. Confidence in timing and impacts to specific terminals too low to include attm so remain with VCSH at all sites. Behind the front winds will remain northeasterly with MVFR cigs persisting through mid to late afternoon Saturday. VFR conditions will return from 19z through the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog or stratus and associated restrictions possible through Tuesday. Restrictions possible in mainly diurnal convection Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Augusta Regional Airport (AGS) daily high temperature record: 10/4: 101 set 10/4/19. Previous date record was 97 degrees set in 1954. The high of 101 was also a record for the month of October surpassing yesterday, 10/3/19, when the high was 100. Before yesterday, the record for the month was 97 set on October 4th, 5th, and 6th in 1954. The daily high temperature record has now been either tied or broken on nine of the past ten days in Augusta beginning 9/25. Daily temperature records in the Augusta Area date back to 1873. Columbia Metro Airport (CAE) daily high temperature record: 10/4: 100 set 10/4/19. Previous date record was 97 degrees set in 1954. Five high temperature records have occurred during the past nine days in Columbia. Daily temperature records in the Columbia Area date back to 1887. Columbia`s record high for the month of October is 101 set October 5th in 1954. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1044 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through Saturday. A cold front will bring rain Sunday into Monday. High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Area of cirrus that is moving across the northern counties is beginning to break up. Expect this to continue and the skies to be mostly clear after midnight. Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s with some lower 40s in outlying locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue Saturday as the high moves off the New England coast. Expect temperatures to warm back into the 70s as warm advection rides on a veering east to southeast flow behind the high. Slow moving frontal system will be moving toward the area Saturday night. There will be a chance of showers after midnight as the air column moistens under increasing lift and convergence aloft. Under the blanket of mostly cloudy skies, lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will be making its way slowly southeast into our region on Sunday. There will be the likelihood of showers along the frontal boundary with a chance elsewhere. There could be enough instability for a rumble of thunder across the southeast zones during the afternoon. Clouds will thicken with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. A large scale mid level trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday night. Models continue to show that upper divergence will develop in the RR quad of an upper level jet (located on the east side of the mid level trough). This will induce airmass evacuation, which will in turn allow a low level jet to respond, which will impinge along the slow moving frontal boundary. This will result in moist ascent along and over the boundary, which should bring categorical PoPs to locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor, with probabilities decreasing toward west central Ohio. Model blends indicate rainfall totals from a half inch near the I-71 corridor to near 1.50 inches across the southeast zones. This will be beneficial given the dry conditions and the onset of drought conditions across the region. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 50s. On Monday, the cold front will continue southeast. Precipitation will taper off from west to east as the upper level jet moves away and the mid level trough axis moves overhead. An additional half inch of rain is expected over the southeast half of the forecast area before precipitation ends, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rain for locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Clouds will slowly decrease from the northwest. It will be cooler with the coolest reading expected across the southeast. Highs will range from the lower to mid 60s. As the overall mean mid level trough moves east Monday night, skies will clear as drier and cooler air moves in from the west. Lows will range from the lower to mid 40s. Dry with sunny weather is expected on Tuesday as the surface high traverses the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s. A mid level ridge is forecast to build near or just east of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Thursday in response to large scale mid level troughing digging into the intermountain west and the Great Plains. The center of surface high pressure will gradually move off to the north and east. Skies will be mostly clear/mostly sunny Tuesday night into Wednesday with a gradual increase in clouds Wednesday nigh into Thursday. It should remain dry. Cool lows in the lower to mid 40s Wednesday should give way to lower to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday. There remains much uncertainty in the timing of the large scale mid level trough as it moves east toward our region Friday into next weekend. Much of this depends on jet energy digging into the back side of the trough and whether a closed low forms as a result. This will have timing implications with the next frontal boundary. Will forecast partly cloudy skies for the end of the extend with low chances for showers for now as we head into next Friday. Temperatures will be a little above normal for early to mid October. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broken VFR stratocu continues to affect CMH/LCK due to cold air aloft associated with departing high pressure. Expect the sc to go scattered in the next few hours. Meanwhile bkn-sct cirrus is racing east across northern Indiana into northern Ohio. Some broken cirrus ceilings will also be possible for the first quarter of the taf period. After 06Z mostly clear skies are expected. The center of the high will be over New England with a H5 ridge over the Ohio Valley at 12Z Saturday. During the day Saturday, the ridge will work into the Appalachians and upper level moisture will begin to increase. Winds will veer from the northeast tonight to the southeast on Saturday, before becoming south after 00Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday into Monday && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Sites
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 .AVIATION... SHRA continue across southwest AR along and adjacent to a stalled out frontal boundary. Precipitation is expected to impact KADF and KHOT for the next several hours before dissipating. Prevailing VFR conditions are being observed across all terminals attm and expected to persist through the TAF cycle for all locations except KADF and KHOT, where heavy rainfall from today is expected to lead to low clouds and reduced visibilities to MVFR/IFR by sunrise. VFR conditions should quickly return after sunrise on Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019) Short Term...Tonight thru Sunday... Cold front has pushed thru the state, and a weak surface trof extended over portions of southwest AR this afternoon. With a ridge flattening out across the southeast, warm and moist air was being pumped up over the surface front and was resulting in scattered convection across southwest Arkansas. Some of this convection has been training over the same areas along the I-30 corridor for hours, and prompted the issuance of a flash flood warning. Several radar rainfall estimates in some areas are over 6-7 inches, and the heaviest rain is falling in an area where we have a lack of ground- based observations. Convection has been rather shallow, and cloud- top temperatures have not been excessively cold, so I suspect these radar estimates are too high. I should point out that most models have been clueless about the ongoing convection today. Even the short-term models like the HRRR have been trying to kill all the convection after an hour or two, and this keeps repeating from run to run. No surprise, but the models show little to no POPs after 00Z, but I have manually augmented POPs in the southwest this evening, and tapered these off by midnight. Looking ahead, the ridge will continue to flatten out during the remainder of the short term, and a second cold front will push down into the area late tomorrow into Sunday, bringing additional rainfall. POPs are being introduced in the NW zones tomorrow afternoon, and should overspread much of northern AR Saturday night. By Sunday, rain chances will be over 50 percent for much of the state. Extended Term...Sunday Night thru Friday Night... The period begins with a long-wave trough tracking east through the northern half of the U.S., with positive vorticity advection and high winds speeds aloft. The forcing aloft supports a surface cold front, which will have already entered the NW corner of the state by late Sunday. The front will track SE and bring rain chances throughout the day Monday, with cooler temperatures through the rest of the week. High and low temperatures next week will be slightly below normal. Weak upper level ridging will follow and become more zonal through mid week until early Thursday, when a deep upper trough approaches from the west, with strong upper level forcing and winds. This wave will support another surface cold front, forecast to enter the state from the west early Friday, bringing another round of rain chances (through Saturday morning) and colder than average temperatures behind the boundary. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...JONES