Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/03/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1049 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drift south through the area tonight. The front will briefly lift back to the north Thursday. A stronger cold front will usher in a stark change of airmass for the end of the week. Temperatures will moderate slowly through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The cold front has settled into far southern PA and is very close to the Mason-Dixon line as of 10PM. The front will likely not make it much south of the border before beginning to lift back north as a warm front Thursday. The HRRR continues to show areas of rain sliding ESE across the CWA overnight so I continued with the high POPs though the QPF will not be terribly heavy. Min temps will vary from the mid-upper 40s across the northern mountains to the low-mid 60s across the southern tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The frontal boundary will meander back to the north into central PA for a 5-10 hour period Thursday as a wave of low pressure slides east across central PA. MU Capes will increase to between 1000-1500 j/kg across portions of our western mtns zones - west of Interstate 99 Thursday afternoon, while cool air damming and periods of light to moderate stratiform rain keep capes minimal to non-existent throughout the Susq Valley and points east. Near and just to the NE of the wavy/quasi-stnry front will be some hefty, low-level (0-1 km) storm relative helicity of 250-350 m2/s2. Although SPC paints just a MRGL risk of severe TSRA due to the aforementioned CAPE limitation, the strong llvl shear along the boundary will lead to a rare mention of a few weak tornadoes with this lower end category of overall SVR TSRA. Max temps Thursday will exhibit a near 25 deg spread from NE to SW across our CWA, with mid 50s across the high terrain of Sullivan County to near 80F in valleys of southern Somerset county. High temps in the 60s will be prevalent throughout the majority of the forecast area Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Northerly flow will continue to drag cooler air into the area Thursday night into Friday. A few lingering showers are possible across northern PA into early Friday. Otherwise, building high pressure over the Great Lakes will bring improving conditions. A chilly Friday night is in store, as the sky clears and winds diminish. Patchy frost is likely across northern PA, and is possible in some of the normally chillier spots farther south. After a chilly start, Saturday will be a seasonably cool day with a good deal of sunshine. Flow will turn southerly Saturday night into Sunday, as high pressure slides off the New England coast and another frontal boundary approaches. Scattered showers are expected to develop as the day progresses on Sunday. The frontal boundary will slow down as it crosses the area on Monday, and it may be accompanied by a period of steady rainfall. Behind the front, another shot of below-normal temperatures is expected for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As a cold front sags southward across southern PA tonight into Thursday, IFR conditions will develop and periods of rain will occur for much of the region and most of the time (esp across the NE half of PA) later tonight and Thursday, with some low- moderate convective instability leading to scattered TSRA form the Western Mtns to the Ohio border. .Outlook... Thu...Rain/low cigs possible, especially northern Pa. Fri...Gusty NW winds. AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Sat...Patchy AM fog possible. Sun...Rain/low cigs possible NW half. Mon...Morning showers SE half of PA, then slowly improving conditions with areas of MVFR to IFR lingering over the Western Mtns through the afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Harrisburg set a record with a high temperature of 93 degrees. The old record was 87 set in 1927. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner CLIMATE...La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1008 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Cancelled gale warning as obs have come down and model guidance does not indicate any strengthening of the winds overnight. An isolated thunderstorm or two are being observed on satellite imagery under 100 J/kg of MUCAPE. Decreased the dew points and temperatures across the Arrowhead as obs are coming in colder than the forecast. This resulted in a little more snow. After careful thought, decided not to issue any winter weather headlines as impacts from this should be low - mainly because road temperatures are in the mid 40`s and it will take quite a bit of snow to overcome that to make for difficult travel. Will cover threat with an SPS. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Precipitation chances will continue to increase CWA wide this evening as an inverted trough slides in from the Northern Plains. The main concern is potential for accumulating snowfall along the International Border tonight. Initially, high pressure is building over southern Manitoba and western Ontario while a somewhat stationary front is draped from the Central Plains into the Central Great Lakes. A trough will lift from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains by this evening. Models have been a bit slow in the development of the inverted trough over the region, which is already evident per SPC Mesoanalysis and with precipitation already spreading in. Accounted for this by utilizing the latest HRRR and NMM guidance which are more in line with reality. Highs today will top out in the mid 40s along the North Shore of western Lake Superior, to the low 50s in southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation is likely CWA wide overnight. Confidence at this point in time is quite high CWA wide for QPF amounts with roughly 0.50 to 0.75 inches expected which is backed up by the latest SREF and GEFS plumes. The uncertainty lies in the precipitation types mainly across the International Border area and the Minnesota Iron Range. The latest (09Z) SREF guidance shows a large spread especially at INL with values ranging from 0 to 5 inches and no real clustering around a solution. Locations further south and east across the Iron Range show a range of 0 to 5.5 inches. There is bifurcation of clustering around lower (0-2 inches) and higher amounts (3-5 inches). The lower solution is contingent on surface temperatures remaining in the mid 30s while the higher solution is more likely with colder surface temperatures. Expect surface temperatures to remain mild as surface dew points should remain in the mid 30s, which should keep temperatures in the mid 30s across most areas overnight. Will need to keep a close eye on things because if drier air works its way in then surface temperatures could cool into the lower 30s and result in higher snowfall totals across the North. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s across the north to the mid 40s in southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. The inverted trough will lift into Ontario and the central Great Lakes on Thursday while high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Any rain/snow mix will come to an end early Thursday morning and become all rain. Precipitation will end from southwest to northeast across the majority of the CWA during the morning. Flow aloft will shift to a northerly direction and bring lake effect rain shower chances to much of the South Shore through the rest of the day. Highs will generally be in the 40s across the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure should lead to clearing skies Thursday night and it will get cold. The exception will be along a portion of the South Shore, mainly across northern Iron County. Northerly winds across the relatively warmer water of Lake Superior should produce some lake effect rain and snow showers over northern Iron County. We do not expect much accumulation at this time as delta-T values are not supportive and surface temperatures will remain above freezing. Elsewhere, clouds should diminish overnight and we expect lows from 25 to 30 over much of far northern Minnesota to the lower to mid thirties elsewhere. A widespread frost should occur with a freeze in spots as well. The only caveat is that clouds can be stubborn to erode at times in the fall so if they hold on longer, temperatures won`t get as cold. The next chance for showers will arrive Friday night and continue into Saturday as a longwave upper trough moves into the Northern Plains then over Minnesota Saturday. There remains some differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the strength of a shortwave in the base of the trough, the ECMWF is stronger and a bit slower. It also develops the surface low over Minnesota. There will be a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with chances diminishing but not ending Saturday night. We included a mention of thunder despite limited instability as forcing is quite strong. The upper trough will remain over or near the Northland into Sunday and a chance for showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday, especially over northern Minnesota. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will remain a few degrees below normal. Most areas will be dry Monday into Wednesday as an area of high pressure moves through the region. There will also be a slight warming trend and by Wednesday, highs are expected in the upper fifties to lower sixties. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 MVFR becoming more IFR as a system moves across the Northland tonight and departs on Thursday. Snow will mix with rain near KINL and there`s a low chance that there could be decent accumulations - if more snow occurs vsbys will be lower there. Gusty winds will occur through the evening near KDLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 1002 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Lake Superior was between high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario and low pressure well off to the south this afternoon. As a result, stronger east to northeast winds have developed. An area of low pressure will move through the region tonight and the stronger east/northeast winds will continue tonight. As the low moves away from the region on Thursday, the wind will decrease and back to northerly. It will take the waves a bit longer to subside on Thursday and we will likely need to extend the Small Craft Advisory from Chequamegon Bay to Saxon Harbor into Thursday evening. We also will likely need a Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the North Shore tonight into Thursday. High pressure will bring in a period of lighter winds Thursday night into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 40 47 36 51 / 100 90 0 0 INL 34 44 30 53 / 100 90 0 0 BRD 40 47 36 54 / 100 40 0 0 HYR 43 48 35 54 / 100 60 10 0 ASX 43 48 37 56 / 100 90 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ148. && $$ UPDATE...Wolfe SHORT TERM...WL LONG TERM...Melde AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
954 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 ...Short Term Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Regarding the overnight hours/Frost Advisory situation: THE BOTTOM LINE: Have added Greeley County to our going Frost Advisory (valid 3-9 AM Thursday), which now means we have 5 of our far northern /west- central Nebraska counties included. MORE DETAILS: As outlined well by preceding day-shifter below, tonight`s frost potential is not a "slam dunk", but is instead somewhat marginal/uncertain in nature. That being said, we do not want to "miss" the first first possible frost of the fall, so we are erring on the side of caution, if anything. Essentially, have maintained a mention of "patchy frost" and issued/maintained the Advisory for all counties where widespread lows as cold as 35-37 degrees are expected. Possible mitigating factors that could work against frost formation include: lingering pesky/at least scattered low clouds, and northerly breezes that are not truly calm (perhaps remaining up in the 4-8 MPH range). Whether or not any frost actually forms early Thurs AM in our northern/western zones, one thing we are confident in is that we will NOT see sub-freezing temps of 32-or-colder, so this is NOT a true freeze situation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Aloft: RAP tropopause analyses and aircraft wind data cont to show a moderately-amplified longwave pattern. An anomalous 594 dm subtropical high was over the Ern USA....centered over the TN Vly. A trof remained over the W...with a low over MT/WY. This low will move E along the US-Can border tonight and then begin to weaken N of the GtLks tomorrow. In its wake...heights will rise over the Plns with a low-amplitude shrtwv ridge developing. Meanwhile...the next trof will move onshore in the W. Surface: A strong quasi-stationary front extended from the Srn GtLks acrs KS into CO...with a couple weak lows migrated E along it. Strong high pres was over ON. One of these lows will become dominant over IL/IN tonight...forcing the front into the Srn Plns. Anticyclogenesis will occur over the Cntrl/Nrn Plns with 1028 mb developing. The axis of this high will drift acrs NEB/KS tomorrow. Rest of this afternoon: Mostly cldy. Cld bases are lifting and will cont to do so from W-E. Patchy drzl was roughly confined to the E 1/2 of the CWA as of 1845Z. That drzl will come to and end as cld bases rise. Some breaks in the OVC should develop W of Hwy 183. Tonight: Gradual clearing and cold. This will be the coldest night of the fall thus far. Patchy fog and possibly some patchy frost from LXN-ODX. There could be some stratus that lingers from GRI N and E...even past midnight. Cold! Lows will be svrl degs below normal which we haven`t seen much of since Sep 1. Frost: Decided to keep the Advisory as posted from the 4 AM shift... but am not excited about frost potential and confidence in verifying is not high. Despite temps dropping into the 30s... widespread stratus has lingered thru much of the day...and probably will linger into the evening in some locations. Unless there is decent decrease in dwpts/dry air advection...clearing in the presence of lingering low-lvl mstr is more likely to result in fog formation. The latent heat release would keep temps up just enough to preclude frost. The issue is the character of the fog. Predicting how widespread and thick fog might be is very difficult in most situations. Given that the fog could be patchy or confined to some areas and not others...that might allow for a little frost to occur where fog does not. One other negative factor is the winds will remain 4-7 kt as times. So...decided to keep the Frost Advisory but change/decrease the fcst wording from areas to patchy. It won`t hurt to cover sensitive vegetation W-NW of the Tri-Cities...just in case. Thu: Any patchy fog in the AM will rapidly dissipate. Should be sunny or mostly sunny. GFS and NAM RH cross sections suggests there could be a some patches of altocu moving in from the SW. A very nice day with low dwpts and light winds. There is a quite a diff between GFS and NAM MOS for high temps. GFS has 62F at GRI while the NAM has 53F since it hangs onto low clds longer. Did not go as warm as the GFS but certainly favored the warmer side of the guidance envelope. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Aloft: The longwave pattern that has dominated the CONUS over the last 30 days will finally break down. The Wrn trof is fcst to retrograde into the E Pac for a time...allowing a ridge to build over the Wrn USA with a trof in the E. There are diff`s in the 5-10 day time frame between the EC and the GFS/CMC ensemble means. The EC hangs onto the Wrn ridge a bit longer...whereas the GFS/CMC means bring the trof back into Wrn Can and the NW USA. As far as the shorter wavelengths...the shrtwv ridge will depart NEB/KS as the deep trof moving into the W tomorrow conts E. This trof will cross NEB/KS Sat followed by a weaker trof Sun. Once this trof exits to the E...the flow will shift to WNW or NW Mon- Tue as the ridge builds. Sig mdls spread dvlps over the E Pac and Wrn USA Tue. Surface: Fri high pres will strengthen as it heads into the GtLks. Meanwhile...a cool front associated with the Wrn trof will be progressing E. A low is fcst to form over WY Fri night and move E along the SD-NEB border. This should force the cool front (currently over KS) to lift back N as a warm front...but the cool front moving thru the Wrn USA will quickly follow and cross the CWA Sat AM. High pres will strengthen to about 1034 mb over the Wrn USA and slip SE onto the Plns Mon. This high will then head into the Ern USA Tue with modified return flow here. Temps: remaining cooler than normal...espcly during the daytime hrs. Some days will be much cooler than normal. Rain: Fri into Fri night is the next chance for shwrs/tstms. A few shwrs could linger into Sat AM. Then dry. Instability will be minimal with the Fri system. So no strong or svr tstms are expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 725 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 General overview: MVFR ceiling to prevail at least these first few hours, but rather high confidence in VFR through the majority of the period, along with precipitation-free conditions. There is the slightest chance of brief MVFR visibility in light fog especially a few hours either side of sunrise, but have only "hinted" at this with a "6SM BR" mention. Winds will not be much of an issue, with sustained speeds under 10KT the vast majority of the time, as direction prevails northerly through most of the period before turning more easterly late Thursday afternoon. Read on for more details regarding ceiling trends... Ceiling trends: Based on satellite trends, stubborn MVFR stratus is going to be at least slightly slower to scatter out than previously advertised (especially at KEAR). Am still a bit concerned that we may be too optimistic with timing, but have aimed for a 04Z return to VFR at both terminals (medium-confidence). Even after scattering of the low cloud deck does occur, cannot rule out at least brief/fleeting return of MVFR through the late-night hours. Overall though, especially the latter half of the period for Thursday daytime carries fairly high confidence in VFR under mostly clear skies. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ039-040-046- 060-061. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Pfannkuch
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure recedes to the south, though a few showers may affect far northern locations close to a developing cold front. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday when the cold front is forecast to travel across the region. Much cooler temperatures and dry weather conditions will be observed Friday as high pressure moves back in behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Scattered showers -- generally light -- have been maintaining their presence in the vicinity of a surface boundary this evening. This boundary is located near the northern ILN CWA boundary, characterized by a 10-15 degree change in temperatures across just the latitudinal width of a few counties. Aside from the showers, areas near and north of the boundary have also been getting into some thicker cloud cover -- even low stratus across parts of northern Ohio. Monitoring the trends for temps and clouds has forced some slight adjustments to temperature and sky grids through the overnight hours, generally in favor of slightly cooler and cloudier conditions in the vicinity of the boundary. PoPs were also adjusted slightly, but still with the idea (supported by recent HRRR runs) that coverage should diminish after the 04Z-06Z time frame. As it is, much of the ILN forecast area should remain dry, and within an area of warm and moist air to the south of the front. Previous discussion > Upper air charts show gradually decreasing geopotential heights, though still far above normal for early October. Surface analysis depicts high pressure moving slowly south, while a cold front lies across Northern Ohio. Hot temperatures persist this afternoon, with CVG DAY and CMH having observed new record highs in the lower to mid 90s. Models show the cold front containing ripples of short wave energy sagging into our northern counties, necessitating a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight. Though the models signal for precip cannot be ignored, dry air evident on GOES water vapor channel 9 along with the rather weak forcing south of the front suggest keeping pops lower than model blends, with only a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in counties north of DAY and CMH. The rest of the area should stay free from precip through tonight, being farther from the front and its moisture convergence and forcing. Once breezes die down this evening, extremely hot temps will fall off quickly, and radiational cooling and a lengthening night should allow readings in the mid 60s by 6 am, a couple degrees cooler than model blends. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... While the cold front remains near our northern counties Thursday morning, a surface low will develop and move through Northern Ohio. Hot temperatures will persist early, especially in southern and central locations, where readings should reach 90 again by early afternoon, with records possibly broken again at CMH and CVG. For Thursday afternoon, an abrupt change can be expected as the surface low drags a cold front across the region, bringing an end to the hot spell. Along with rapidly falling temperatures by evening, there will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms, limited by rather weak forcing and instability under a westerly flow aloft. Adjusted synoptic wind gusts up from model blend since it appears we will see gusts close to 30 knots with frontal passage. Any showers that develop should end Thursday night, while sky cover lingers under an inversion around 3000 ft, especially in northern counties. Lows in the low 50s will be over 10 degrees cooler than in the last several nights. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cooler, more seasonal weather pattern will dominate the long term period as the eastern half of the country is under the influence of Canadian high pressure behind large scale frontal systems pushing east. On Friday, northerly winds behind the departing cold front will likely produce a period of mostly cloudy conditions north of Interstate 70, hinted at by model 925mb and 850mb RH fields along with very chilly 850mb temperatures pushing south over relatively warm Lake Huron/Erie waters. Surface high pressure will build in through the day on Friday, with decreasing winds and drying low levels providing improving conditions into Friday evening. By Saturday, dry conditions and additional sunshine will start a bit of a warm up lasting into Sunday as the next frontal system approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will a few degrees above normal on Saturday and Sunday. Consensus model solution has arriving shortwave energy late in the weekend into Monday morning developing a shallow trough in the eastern United States. This supports development of a wave along the approaching frontal system along with likely precipitation, especially in the southeast CWA closer to the wave. Models start to diverge here, with the Euro and Canadian showing a slower, stronger wave impacting our southeast counties well into Monday, while the more progressive GFS clears the CWA by Monday morning. Took a conservative approach, lingering showers a bit into Monday. Cooler, drier air pushes back into the region behind the front late Monday into Tuesday, with the center of the high centered just to the north by Wednesday. This sends temperatures back to near or possibly just below normal values early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, though there are a few items to discuss. Showers this evening should generally remain north of the TAF sites, with just a slight chance that a few could affect KCMH/KLCK. While thick VFR clouds are expected at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK tonight, some MVFR and even IFR clouds are located not too far to the north. Though not the most likely scenario, it is possible that some lower ceilings could impact Columbus during the 04Z-10Z time frame. Otherwise, some valley fog is expected at KLUK, but VFR conditions should prevail elsewhere. Tomorrow, winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range, with gusts as high as 20-25 knots out of the west. Precipitation is appearing fairly unlikely for the TAF sites, with a chance in the afternoon at Columbus that currently appears too low to include in the forecast. Ceilings will gradually lower through the day, and although VFR conditions are expected through the end of the forecast period, lower ceilings appear likely heading into Friday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Friday, mainly in the morning. && .CLIMATE... Anomalously strong mid level ridge will persist over the area today, leading to high temperature records at Dayton, Cincinnati, and Columbus. Near-record highs are also possible Thursday at Cincinnati and Columbus. Records... OCT 3rd CVG 89...year 1910 & 1919 DAY 93...year 1900 CMH 89...year 1898 & 1953 ALL TIME OCT CVG 95...year 2019 (set October 1, 2019) DAY 94...year 2019 (set October 1 and October 2, 2019) CMH 94...year 2019 (set October 1 and October 2, 2019) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hogue AVIATION...Hatzos CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
938 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 930 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Scattered light rain showers can be expected through the remainder of the evening, but heavier showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to overspread northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan, and far northwest Ohio overnight. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially for locations along the Route 6 corridor extending northward across southern Lower Michigan. Tonight`s lows are expected to stay in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Dry but cooler conditions are expected Friday into Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Scattered light rain showers continue to overspread the region this evening, but more vigorous convection has developed over past few hours across portions of central/northern Missouri. These storms have developed in response to amplified upper trough progressing eastward across the Central/Northern Plains resulting in stronger frontal response. An axis of slightly stronger southwest flow is expected to lift northeast from Missouri across the far southern Great Lakes. Stronger forcing with aforementioned upper trough is expected to bypass the area to the northwest, but a pocket of fairly deep moisture convergence/isentropic lift with approaching low level jet and highly anomalous column moisture (PWATs near 2 inches sampled with 00Z DVN RAOB) should allow band of rain with perhaps few embedded thunderstorms to affect approximately northern third of the area. Still some potential of locally heavy rainfall given decent low/mid level moisture convergence, excessive PWATs, and some low/mid level frontogenesis forcing possibly coming into play. Setup appears favorable for narrow swaths of heavier rainfall, but confidence in exactly where these more favored areas will occur still on the low side so have maintained area-average QPF amounts in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range across the northern half of the forecast area tapering to lesser amounts south. Given recent heavy rainfall across northern locations, some minor flooding/ponding will be possible overnight, especially for areas receiving rainfall in excess of a half inch. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 A wind shift boundary was sinking south in IL during the afternoon hours as northeast winds overtook west winds. At the same time, subsidence and drying in the midlevels was observed out west in RAP soundings. We`ll have to watch for some drizzle within this this afternoon and evening especially as the low levels of the atmosphere still appear very moist. Then the dryness this afternoon is expected to be overtaken during the overnight by moisture again as a second wave rides along the boundary north and east towards the region. This second wave is paired with a decent theta-e surge and available upper divergence as the low pressure system passes overhead, however, am wondering if the aforementioned dryness might affect how moist it can get especially as models catch on to the aforementioned dry air so kept QPF closer to model consensus. Lingering rainfall especially east of IN-15 dissipates Thursday morning as the front pushes east of the area by late afternoon. With the tight pressure gradient across the area just behind the front, gusty winds to 30 mph are possible. The previous warm/moist airmass is replaced by appreciable cold/dry advection behind the front as a deepening 1030 mb high moves into the northern Great Lakes region. Thursday night, 850T drops down near 4 to 5C allowing lows to drop into the 40s in many areas despite some remnant low level moisture/cloudiness. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure and upper ridging will help to allow for a sunny day on Friday, but with 850Ts between 5 and 10C, highs will only be able to rise toward the upper 50s to mid 60s. This is as much as 10 degrees below average for this time of year. As the high pressure system pushes east for Saturday, another moisture return is evident ahead of a cold front for Saturday night. A strong low level jet over 40 kts produces some high moisture advection, but a majority of the contribution will be from the winds with a smaller moisture contribution this time. The better forcing for the front translates to our north and minimal upper level support passes overhead as the upper trough goes negatively tilted to our northwest. This all contributes to a lower precipitation potential for the region so will keep consensus PoPs, but lesser QPF will be observed compared to what we`ve seen recently. Some upper level energy follows the frontal passage allowing for more cloudiness and a delayed entrance of the approaching high pressure system until the next work week. 850Ts drop towards the low to mid single digits allowing for another fall-like cool spell. Highs for the bulk of this long term period will struggle to break out of the 60s for highs, which is near to slightly below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Southward sagging frontal boundary will continue to be focal point of some post-frontal IFR/LIFR cigs through the first half of this forecast valid period. Wind shift to the north should occur at KFWA over the next hour or two, along with an accompanying drop to MVFR cigs to possibly below 2000 feet after 03Z. A pocket of some light rain will affect KSBN in the 01Z to 04Z timeframe, but heavier showers with perhaps isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop later this evening across central Illinois and spread east-northeast across northern Indiana overnight. Still some uncertainty regarding southward extent of heavier rainfall, with KFWA currently looking to be on southern edge of heavier rainfall. In addition to vsby restrictions from rainfall, some fog is also possible across the region given the slow moving frontal boundary and abundant low level moisture. IFR/LIFR conditions will improve late morning Thursday as primary upper trough lifts across the Upper Midwest allowing front to more aggressively shift back south. Windy conditions with west-northwest wind gusts of around 25 knots are expected Thursday afternoon with transition to cigs above 2k feet and eventually VFR late. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Roller SHORT TERM...Roller LONG TERM...Roller AVIATION...Marsili Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: