Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/30/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the state tonight into Monday. A warm front will lift north into the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build in on Thursday into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 9 PM Update...The wind is diminishing overland and valley temps are beginning to cool faster than surrounding area so adjusted temps a bit. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. The Frost Advisory remains in place for the Maine Central Highlands to the Downeast coast. Confidence is high that a hard freeze is in store across the north and west with frost as far s as the coast. High pres is expected to build into the region overnight. Clouds across the north are starting to dissipate as the dry air continues its trek into the state. Looking for clear skies overnight and winds dropping off the high presses east. Temps are expected to drop off quickly after sunset. The question is whether the winds will decouple enough for widespread frost. The latest RAP and NAM show winds decoupling enough for the potential for frost. Interestingly enough, the GEM tries to keep a wind around 5 mph or so, especially across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. This would keep the blyr mixed enough to prevent widespread frost. Decided to stay close to the previous thinking w/winds dropping off below 5 mph after 1-2 AM, which should be enough time for frost to develop. Some sites across the n and w, especially in the river valleys will see mid/upper 20s by daybreak. The potential for river valley fog is there. Tried to play for this in the forecast. Monday will see a good deal of sunshine after a cold start. Winds will be light averaging around 5 mph. Increasing clouds from the west by late in the afternoon. Daytime temps will be tad warmer than today, but near normal for the last day of September. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm front approaches from the west Monday night with increasing clouds. Still enough clearing and light enough winds earlier in the night for most areas to decouple and cool off to the mid 30s to low 40s. Not as cool as Sunday night though. For Tuesday, warm front moves through with light rain, mainly in the afternoon and mainly in the north, though there is a chance of rain Downeast as well. Rather juicy airmass behind the warm front Downeast late Tuesday into Tuesday night with dewpoints rising to near 60. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms Downeast late Tuesday into Tuesday evening, but didn`t have the confidence to put them into the forecast. Tuesday night, surface low passes north of us from west to east, and as this occurs, drags a cold front through Maine from north to south. Good shot at rain as the front moves south through the night, but rain doesn`t look very heavy as upper level dynamics aren`t impressive with ridging aloft just to our west. Cold front appears to push offshore Wednesday with cooler, drier airmass, though some model ensemble members hang up the front enough near the coast to where can`t totally rule out some rain Downeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday night into Thursday looks mostly dry and cool with high pressure off to the north and a cold front well offshore. Thursday night into Friday, a fairly potent shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes. A surface low looks to move from west to east through Southern New England. Some models have the system passing far enough to our south to keep us dry, while others having it getting far enough north to bring precipitation. With us being on the north side of the surface low and in the cool airmass, can`t rule out some snow in Northern Maine if all things work out perfectly...that is, the system comes far enough north into the cooler airmass with precipitation intensity peaking around daybreak Friday (minimum daytime heating). Raised PoPs to chance through the whole area, but only went with a bit of a mix north of Millinocket early Friday. Again, still lots of model uncertainty and lots of time for the forecast to be refined. Most likely solution is little or no snow. But with leaves still on the trees it bears watching as any wet snow can lead to impacts on vegetation. Cool high pressure for the weekend with below average temperatures. Next precipitation chance late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through Monday with light winds. The only caveat will be KPQI as some fog is possible around daybreak which could drop conditions briefly to MVFR/IFR. SHORT TERM: Tuesday and Tuesday Night... MVFR likely late Tuesday into Tuesday night with rain and low clouds. Breezy. Wednesday... Continued breezy with conditions improving to VFR by about mid- morning. Wednesday Night through Friday...Generally VFR. There is a chance of a weather system Friday which could bring precipitation and lower than VFR, but confidence is low. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines. N winds to pick up this evening to 10-15 kt w/gusts around 20 kt. Winds are expected to drop by Monday to around 10 kts. Seas 3-4 ft. Wave runup was a bit high starting out, so trimmed waves back by around a foot. SHORT TERM: Small craft likely late Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Cold front passes through early Wednesday, with conditions slowly improving to below small craft levels around late Wednesday and remaining below small craft through Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With king tides and a touch of surge and higher seas, can`t rule out some minor coastal flood and/or wave runup issues around the Tuesday early afternoon high tide. Most likely looks to be at the level of a coastal flood statement and nothing more. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCB Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Hewitt/Foisy Marine...Hewitt/Foisy Tides/Coastal Flooding...Foisy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1008 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Update to tweak timing of PoPs/Wx/QPF through Monday afternoon. Overall, forecast messaging still on track. Latest trends in environment indicating increasing WAA 925-700MB supporting continued rain development. Very stable low levels inhibit ML parcels, however MUCAPE axis of 1000-2000 J/KG on RAP analysis is show to stretch as far north as Highway 2. This has supported a few pulsy marginal updrafts, with reports of pea to half inch size hail. Activity developing over western SD matching CAMs convective signal and what may organize upstream and move into our CWA late tonight/early Monday. Elevated instability should continue to increase before transitioning east Monday morning, and with very high deep layer shear there is still potential for elevated supercell development with hail to 2" (higher?) and heavy rain main threats. UH tracks of latest CAMs trending more towards southeast ND compared to earlier this evening, which makes sense considering how much cooler temps are further north and where better instability will be in place by time activity spreads out of western ND. Tracks also weaken greatly as they move further east, so there is uncertainty on whether organized severe threat would hold together further east in our CWA. Will need to continue to monitor as environmental parameters could still support isolated sig hail threat late tonight-Monday morning, with best chance based on timing after 4AM. UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue to build and track over our forecast area with some thunderstorms having history of 0.5" per hour (or more) rates. Luckily training/back building has been limited, but there is still concern that the potential is still there and could create localized flood threat. CAMs show trend towards lull in rain intensity late this evening. Elevated instability axis builds northward after midnight, and stronger storms may develop upstream from our CWA and progress eastward after 4AM. No change in thoughts for late night through midday Monday severe threat, with signal in CAMs and model environmental parameters showing potential for elevated supercells. Will continue to monitor that situation/set up. During this update minor adjustments were made to reflect near term trends, otherwise forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Primary impacts or concerns in the short term involve severe storms chances and heavy rainfall threat. The rest of today and into the overnight a warmer and more moist airmass will continue to lift to the north over the FA. With PWats between 1 and 1.5" and 850mb jet focusing over the valley will see showers with embedded thunder persist into the late evening. For the overnight MUCAPE increases with the 18Z NAM showing 3500j/kg in the southern valley and cloud layer shear an impressive 50+kts will see the threat for elevated severe hail storms. CAMs have indicated stronger UH tracks moving into the FA from the west after 1am with model soundings showing analogs for significant hail with values above 2". It is another one of the low probability occurrence at a specific location with high impact type of events. With respect to the widespread rainfall amounts that are expected across the area overnight into tomorrow the most likely place for more than 2 inches will be from TVF to southern Grand Forks county to Valley city areas. Here a narrow strip of 0.75 to 1.25" has already occurred. Otherwise 1 to 2 inches is still expected with the higher amounts in the north and also would be if and where ever an elevated storm tracks overnight. Rainfall move out of the area during the afternoon with a dry Monday night expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The extended period starts off with southwest flow aloft and an upper trough over the intermountain west. A frontal boundary will extend from New Mexico northeastward through Wisconsin Tuesday morning...with ND/MN on the cold side of things. The upper trough will close off early and move eastward through the area as an upper low on Wednesday night. There could be some light rain showers across much of the area Wed/Thu, with snow showers possible in the far north late Wednesday night. With the cooler air in place Tuesday and the upper low reinforcing temps, highs will stay around 50 degrees for Tue-Thu. Frost will be a concern for growers by mid-late week as well. However, on Friday the cold surface high moves east with southerly winds returning ahead of a low pressure system. An upper trough and surface low then move through the region over the weekend...with good agreement from the GFS and ECMWF models. There will be a chance of rain over the weekend with this system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Prevailing MVFR ceilings should decrease to IFR (possibly LIFR) as low level moisture continues to linger over our area. Showers/thunderstorm with pockets of light fog are resulting in vis restrictions varying from 1 to 6sm, but not prevailing for most terminals in eastern ND and northwest MN. expect lull in thunderstorm activity late this evening before another round of storms (possibly stronger) develops after 9Z through 15Z. Showers may linger into the day Monday with ceilings slowly increasing. Some locations (KFAR has best chance) may see VFR by the end of the TAF period Monday afternoon. Winds will remain easterly tonight, though strongest gusts will decrease this evening. Low level wind shear will be possible for MN terminals late tonight and Monday morning. Eventually winds should shift to the north and then northwest as the larger system moves across the region. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1006 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 - Rain tapering off late this afternoon - Much warmer for Monday and Tuesday - Heavy rain possible for the middle part of the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 I updated the forecast to have drizzle and areas of fog overnight. I do not think the fog will get to thick but the warm front starts to make a serious push north overnight. It is after say 3 am that the low level jet (the main core of the 40 to 50 knot winds) which now is mostly west of the Mississippi River but after 3 am a branch of it focus on Western Wisconsin. That push of the warm front will bring more moist air into the cooler air over us and that typically means fog. Another aspect is there is a shortwave (convective) passing over over the souther 1/3 of Southern Lower Michigan. There are some scattered showers with that. Not enough instability for thunderstorms. So prior to 3 am I see areas of fog and drizzle with a few showers mostly south of I-96. After 3 am through the southern branch of the polar jet reaches southwest Michigan with the exit region over our western CWA. This allows the more unstable air to move in with that so the push of the warm front may cause scattered thunderstorms to develop. I admit the MUC is marginal only around 500 j/kg but the SPC 3 hour probability of thunderstorms does suggest thunderstorms west of US-131 in the 3 am to 10 am time frame. Also surface convergence on the warm front will help that cause too. If they even happen (they have been forecast by the HRRR and ESRL HRRR for most of the model runs I have seen tonight)they should not be anything to special, still it looks reasonable enough to have in the forecast. I still believe the warm front should clear the CWA by late afternoon so we should see highs well into the 80s by late afternoon. The air should be to stable for convection then but curiously the RAP model shows MUC near 3000 j/kg over western Lower Michigan by mid afternoon. There is not focus for storms to develop so this should be no problem unless the warm front does not get through. The bottom line is we will see fog and patchy drizzle most of the night with temperature mostly in the 50s. Clouds should clear by noon or so, then temperatures should jump into the 80s. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 This initial round of rain today will push east of the CWA over the next couple of hours as the mid level wave responsible for this event pulls away. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.7 inches have been observed just from todays rain with the highest amounts along and south of I96. Clearly the ground is saturated in many areas as a result of all the recent rain. Scattered showers and storms are still possible tonight into early Monday. This is when the warm front will be lifting through. Locally heavy rain looks to be the main risk with any storms. While a wing of instability will lift northward through the CWA the main low level jet is off to the west. Deep warm air advection sets up for Monday into Tuesday. A low level jet is shown to track through Wisconsin into Northern Lower Michigan. Thus it appears the main storm activity will be focused in those areas. This leaves my northern zones most prone to impacts. We will feature the highest POPs for those locations. Right now if we do see storms then the main risk would be for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The main period of concern is Tuesday night into Thursday and flooding appears to be the main potential impact. The period will feature a very moist airmass with several rounds of showers and storms likely to occur. With the ground saturated from all the recent rain and rivers on the rise the region will be prone to flooding. The surface frontal zone slips slowly southward through the region during this period and it could stall out for a period of time. Meanwhile a mid level wave is shown to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. It does still look like we will be on the cool side of this system. This will act to keep the storms elevated. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 For the most part the rain has come to an end early this evening, through drizzle is very much possible into the mid evening at all TAF sites. Solid IFR cigs prevailed from I-96 to I-94 and until the warm front clears the area during the midday hours of Monday, I expect IFR cigs to prevail. There are two glitches to watch for. The first is dense fog. We do have currently have a stationary front south of Michigan, but it will turn into a warm front after midnight and march it`s way north into Southwest Michigan during the early to mid morning hours of Monday. Once the front really starts to push north the higher dew point air will have to mix with the cooler air currently over this area. Typically that means fog. The RAP and NAM models are forecasting dense for near I-94 toward morning. The other glitch is thunderstorms developing on the warm front as it starts to lift north. Both the HRRR and ESL HRRR shows this happening. The storms would develop southwest of AZO and march northeast into the I-96 TAF sites by 12z before the storms dissipate. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Gusty east winds will continue this evening with some values over 20 knots at times. As a warm front lifts northward through the zones the wind will shift and become southwesterly Monday into Monday night. Northern zones will need to be monitored for possible headlines mainly starting Monday night. Confidence is not high enough yet to go with one. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...MJS DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...WDM MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
853 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated light showers are possible overnight. Dry weather will return to all areas on Monday, but temperatures will remain cool. A warming and drying trend is then forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. A dry weather system passing across northern California on Thursday will result in a pause in the warming trend. But warming will then likely continue late in the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Sunday...A deep upper trough over the Western U.S. maintained cool temperatures across our region today. Afternoon highs were anywhere from 4 to 12 degrees cooler than normal. An shortwave embedded in the northerly flow on the back side of the longwave trough dropped south into northern California today, triggering thunderstorms as far south Mendocino County late this afternoon. Scattered light showers managed to develop as far south as Sonoma and Napa Counties by early this evening and measurable rain has been recorded in northern and western Sonoma County. Recent radar data indicate shower activity has been dissipating across the North Bay over the past hour, which is consistent with model forecasts. The 00Z NAM forecasts no additional measurable rainfall overnight, while the latest HRRR continues to show isolated light showers through late tonight. Current forecast maintains slight shower chances overnight, but the potential for thunderstorms has ended. The airmass over our area remains very cool, with the 00Z Oakland Sounding indicating an 850 mb temperature of less than 5 deg C. Temperatures will remain well below normal on into Monday as the upper trough remains slow to move off to the east. One final shortwave is forecast to drop in from the north on Monday morning, but all precipitation with that disturbance is expected to remain to our north and east. The upper trough is forecast to finally move off to our east by Tuesday, allowing a warming and drying trend to start that day, and continue on into Wednesday. Models then generally agree that the warming trend will halt temporarily, or even reverse slightly, on Thursday as an upper trough moves across northern California. Precipitation with the Thursday trough is forecast to remain well to our north. The warming trend will then likely redevelop on Friday and continue on into next weekend as an upper ridge develops near the West Coast. && of 04:55 PM PDT Sunday...Breezy onshore winds with occasional gusts will continue into the early evening and decrease after 03-04z. Overnight, a weak system will move through the region from the north, producing mainly FEW/SCT clouds with bases 2000-4000 feet. FEW clouds with bases around 1500 feet will also occur. MVFR cigs most likely to develop around the Monterey Bay terminals overnight as moist northwest winds interact with the terrain. Elsewhere, VFR should prevail through the period. A few brief, isolated light showers are possible overnight tonight but too low of confidence and isolated to include in the TAFs. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West winds with gusts 20 to 25 kt will diminish 03-04z this evening. FEW/SCT clouds with bases near 4000 feet will continue through the overnight hours. A few clouds near 1500 feet may also develop overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...West-northwest winds 10-15 kt will continue through early evening and decrease overnight. MVFR developing overnight with SCT/BKN clouds near 2000 feet. These cigs will persist into Monday morning before clearing. Isolated showers may also be possible early Monday morning. Will include in the TAFs if confidence increases. && .MARINE...As of 8:43 PM PDT Sunday...Scattered showers will continue overnight across the coastal waters. Lighter winds are expected overnight through early Monday as an area of low pressure over the Great Basin moves east. Northwest winds will increase on Monday afternoon, resulting in hazardous conditions for small crafts Monday afternoon through evening. Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through the middle of the week. A moderate northwest swell and long period southerly swell will continue through mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: ST MARINE: ST Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Monday night with surface high pressure building into the region beginning Tuesday. High pressure will then translate offshore, but extend inland across NC through the middle of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1000 PM Sunday... Upper air analysis shows the anomalous 850mb ridge (1606m) centered overhead tonight and a the 700mb ridge (3124m) centered between GSO and FFC. A surface cold front, mmodulated in places by outflows, stretched from the Delmarva to the Shenandoah`s to the IL/IN/KY border region. Some convection associated with a weak upper disturbance rounding the ridge and its weak surface trough, as well as storms rolling off the mountains has mostly died off since sunset, though one cluster showers and isolated storms on outflow nearing the NC/VA border appears to be deep enough to tap into lingering, slightly elevated instability noted on the SPC mesoanalysis. Have adjusted POPs to account for some what should be a diminishing trend in the northern Piedmont in the next few hours. The other forecast challenge overnight is cloud cover associated with the northeasterly flow behind the cold front as it pushes south with otherwise little fanfare. Most guidance suggests some stratus...already observed around the Tidewater...will spread southwest across the area overnight, but recent satellite trends and latest RAP soundings have me wondering how deep the moist layer (near 1000ft) will be. Still increasingly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Sunday... Monday morning widespread stratus will be in place across central North Carolina in the wake of a weak cold front. Global and high res models are indicating some weak WAA/isentropic upglide rain across the Triad Monday morning, but this signal is weak. Forecast soundings show minimal saturation with little in the way of warm rain process taking place (collision and coalescence). Therefore anything that does occur will likely be drizzle or light rain. By Monday afternoon breaks will start to slowly appear in the clouds with a slow warming. Highs for Monday will be extremely difficult as widespread precipitation to help reinforce the CAD will be non-existent. The NAM guidance has upper 70s for the Triad, while the ECMWF is indicating mid-80s. For now have kept the forecast trended towards the warmer guidance as reinforcement of the CAD will be difficult given the lack of precipitation. Any breaks in the clouds will also likely result in surface temperatures quickly rising as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be around 15 degrees C. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 233 PM Sunday... Ridging both sfc and aloft will keep a dry and unseasonably warm pattern across our area for the mid-week period, until a strong cold front moves through on Friday. That front will bring a chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and t-storms on Friday, highest PoPs across the east invof more abundant moisture. High pressure will then build into the area from the north for this upcoming weekend, bringing with it a dry and much cooler airmass that will result in temps closer to normal, if not several degrees below normal. In short, very nice and comfortable weather is in store for central NC for next week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 725 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, though coverage is not high enough to include at a specific terminal. Best chances of showers/storms will be at KINT and KGSO this evening. Expect low stratus to develop and spread across central NC tonight, earliest at KRWI and KRDU and latest at KINT and KFAY. Cigs should initially be around 1 kft, briefly dipping into IFR before daybreak. Models suggest stratus will be slow to scatter and lift on Monday, potentially remaining MVFR into the late morning/early afternoon (though confidence in the timing is low). Winds should be light and variable tonight (though generally out of the east), increasing into the 5-10 kt range during the day Monday. -KC Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the extended period, though there could be a period of stratus around 3000 ft Monday night/Tuesday morning. -Haines && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures (Year) GSO RDU FAY 9/29 90 (1921) 92 (1941) 95 (1933) 10/2 91 (1986) 91 (1986) 93 (1986) 10/3 91 (1986) 91 (2002) 95 (1986) Record High Min Temperatures (Year) GSO RDU FAY 9/29 71 (2015) 74 (2015) 75 (2015) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Smith NEAR TERM...Smith SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...KC/Haines CLIMATE...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
236 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...This evening through Monday Continued areas of precip moving north-northeast across the forecast area as of 20Z this afternoon. Will continue with the winter weather advisory for the northwest mountains, which will run to 00Z this evening. Will also continue with the high wind warnings for eastern Sweetwater and into Natrona counties until 01Z this evening based upon recent reports of winds approaching 50 mph into the high wind warning area. The latest 20Z HRRR model update indicates that the scattered precip should slowly lessen with time into the evening, and expect that most of the precip should be confined to northwest Wyoming by after 03Z tonight. Most of the lingering precip into northwest and west of the Continental Divide should end as a period of light snow/flurries before ending generally by 06Z tonight. Much colder air will be in the wake of the northeast movement of the vort max at 500 millibars and surface cold front moving through the area after 06Z tonight. It is expected that widespread temperatures should drop well below freezing into the mid-upper teens and into the low-mid 20s especially west of the Continental Divide. Have issued a freeze warning for the western valleys and basins from 03Z tonight until 16Z Monday. The short term models differ involving timing of the next short wave to push across northwest Wyoming on Monday. The ECMWF model is quicker involving the increased low level moisture into the forecast area, compared to the slower GFS model solution. Will continue with isolated/scattered snow showers west of the Continental Divide through early afternoon, and then will follow closer to the GFS timing involving more numerous snow showers expected to move into northwest Wyoming by around 21Z Monday. Generally lighter precip amounts are expected, so will not be opting for a winter weather advisory at this time for Monday. May need to trend closer to the colder NAM temp guidance for Monday afternoon high temps. .LONG TERM...Monday night through Sunday Some lingering showers in the northwest and north are possible Monday night through Wednesday as the Canadian Low moves across northern Montana but most locations will be drying out. With moderate ridging building a warming trend will occur through the end of the work week with temperatures rising to near normal. The next system bringing precipitation will approach the region by next weekend, but models are not yet in agreement with timing and coverage. The ECMWF is still indicating Friday afternoon could see scattered showers across the northern half of the area while the GFS is dry. Have kept precip chances more in line with the ECMWF for now. Gusty afternoon winds will likely return next weekend across southern Wyoming. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Rain and snow will decrease after 00Z with VFR to MVFR conditions occurring at times. Mountains will be frequently obscured. Isolated rain and snow showers will occur after 01Z. Along and east of the continental divide, VFR to MVFR conditions will occur through 02Z with local IFR conditions in areas of heavier precipitation. The showers and storms will decrease after 02Z with only isolated activity through 06Z. Mountains will be frequently obscured. Strong to high southwest winds will occur from KRKS to KCPR this afternoon until shortly after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will continue its east-southeast movement through the region tonight and into Monday. Lingering rain and snow showers across the area will slowly dissipate by late tonight. Breezy to windy conditions will continue until mid evening, with high winds expected to continue into early evening in portions of Sweetwater and Natrona counties. Isolated snow showers in western sections on Monday will become more numerous by late afternoon across west and into northwest Wyoming as another weaker system moves across the area through Monday night. Relative humidity values will remain above critical values through the short term period. Mixing and smoke dispersion will remain in the poor category in the northern basins to excellent range in the eastern and southern sections. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ001- 002-012-014. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Monday for WYZ013-023-025>027. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ020-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...Troutman LONG TERM...Hulme AVIATION...Hulme FIRE WEATHER...Troutman