Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/28/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Weakening upper low over sw NM at 23Z will continue to track to the ne-e over NM as it opens into a trough. Isold to wdly sct convection associated with this feature south of Interstate 40 at 23Z is indicated by short term models to persist, possily becoming sct over south central and sern NM aft 02Z, where an isold strong to severe storm is possible. Meanwhile, a few light showers may develop as far north as KABQ. Clearing from west to east is expected by 28/12Z, although isold-lcl MVFR cigs possible 28/09-15Z in the KGUP area, from KRTN-KCAO associated with a weak surface boundary and from the KCVN vcnty swd due to moist low level sly flow. && .PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019... .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather system moving slowly east through southern New Mexico today will spark off a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-40 through this evening. A couple of these storms may become strong over southeast New Mexico where large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall are possible. Southwest winds will increase over the weekend with the strongest winds expected on Sunday. High temperatures will also warm above normal again for the entire area. A potentially significant rainfall event may develop over eastern New Mexico late Sunday through Tuesday as deep moisture surges north into the area. Temperatures will begin cooling closer to normal for the entire area by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... The recent extended stretch of mainly tranquil weather will come to an end over the weekend as a significant pattern change develops over North America. First, the upper level low that parked over AZ for the past several days is ejecting slowly eastward into southern NM today. 19Z LAPS and satellite analysis indicate moisture and instability is slowly increasing eastward south of I-40. The updated SPC outlook from this morning increased the marginal threat for severe storms from the southern deserts eastward across southeast NM this evening. The 12Z HREF and latest RAP guidance are certainly on board with convection advancing northeastward through the southeast plains. This latest forecast leans toward the higher NBM PoPs due to higher confidence. Any storms that impact the southeast will be capable of localized large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. A weak back door cold front will then sag southwest into northeast NM tonight in the wake of the departing upper wave. An area of low cigs is expected to develop along the CO border from near Raton eastward to Clayton. The aforementioned pattern change will take shape over the weekend as an unseasonably strong high amplitude wave pattern develops over North America. 700-500mb layer south-southwest flow will increase to near 30 kt on Saturday then become more southwest on Sunday while increasing to near 45 kt. A strengthening surface pressure gradient through this period will result in widespread breezy winds Saturday then widespread windy conditions on Sunday. Wind advisories are now looking more likely over parts of the west and northeast plains for Sunday. The potentially more significant aspect of the pattern change will be a remarkable +4 stdev moisture plume advecting northward into NM late Sunday through Tuesday. Medium range model guidance continues to show an area of 1-3" rainfall amounts extending over southeast NM during this period, followed by yet another wave of heavy rainfall by mid to late week. This second wave of precip is much more in question but has potential to impact areas farther west into the Rio Grande Valley by late next week. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy to windy conditions will expand over the forecast area this weekend with the strongest winds expected on Sunday. Winds may even reach Wind Advisory criteria in the northeast on Sunday. Even with dry conditions for most this weekend, minimum humidity values are currently forecast to stay just above critical thresholds. Still, a couple hours of localized critical fire weather conditions can`t be ruled out on Sunday for central and northeastern NM. Meanwhile, chances for wetting precipitation will rise for southeast and east central NM this weekend as moisture surges in from the south. With an unstable atmosphere, a few severe thunderstorms will also be possible in this area this weekend. Monday and Tuesday will likely feature the best chances for widespread wetting rainfall for the east as deeper moisture surges northward. Chances for rain will expand westward into central and western NM late next week as moisture seeps into the Rio Grande Valley. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
717 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0419 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ Tonight and Tomorrow. As easily felt outside this afternoon, temperatures achieved their advertised above average values with many places reaching the mid to upper 90s once again. This has been a trend for an extended period with expectation it continues well into next week. Unfortunately this adds to our worsening drought situation, as well as keeping elevated fire weather conditions in play throughout the next several days as soil moisture continues to deplete. For today, southerly flow across Central Alabama has accompanied widespread afternoon cumulus development, with isolated showers & thunderstorms in some local areas. Thus far, moisture quality and convective activity have favored the southeast where PWs have increased as high as ~1.9" per latest RAP mesoanalysis. Thus, adjusted PoPs from current observations with a downward trend through the evening. The only mentionable forecast change for this evening is inclusion of isolated activity a few hours later as locally heavier activity may linger a bit after dark. Otherwise, overnight temperatures in the upper 60s & lower 70s remain in place with clear & calm weather overall. For tomorrow, PoPs have been increased in the east where latest guidance suggests more favorable moisture convergence within the zone of higher PWs (1.8-1.9"), particularly east of I-65. Despite a relatively subsident atmosphere within the amplifying deep-layer ridge, thunderstorms have managed to take advantage of afternoon moisture/instability, where available, as convective temperatures are reached. Will also evaluate the morning RAOB as dry air aloft & the overall environment may favor a few strong wind gusts in any robust thunderstorm activity, though this remains low confidence as a whole. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s should be expected once again, outside of any areas lucky enough to receive rain. No other major changes were made to the below discussed long-term forecast. 40/Sizemore .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0306 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ Through Friday. Potential for record high temperatures continues through Thursday. The ridge continues to build across much of the Eastern CONUS on Sunday as a strong upper level low digs into the Pacific NW. For Central AL, this will mean continued dry and hot weather. High temps are expected to run in the mid to upper 90s each day through at least Thursday. Some guidance suggests a cold front could approach towards the end of next week, but that remains uncertain as models continue to disagree on if/how quickly the ridge breaks down. Given how anomalous the current pattern is, I`m hedging the forecast against a quick breakdown of the ridge, which might be influenced by a bias towards climatology in the extended. Therefore, the forecast will be for warmer and drier weather to continue through Friday. See the climate section below for the high temperature records. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. There are still some TSRA around in the eastern half of C AL at this time. I have VCSH mentioned for BHM/ASN/ANB for an hour. The activity should start deteriorating now that we have lost daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated TSRA is possible again the eastern portions of C AL again on Saturday afternoon, but is too low to mention at any of the terminals at this point. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Central Alabama will experience mostly dry and hot conditions through the end of next week. Afternoon relative humidity values will generally fall into the 30 percent range each afternoon. These low humidity values and high KBDI values will result in a continued elevated fire danger. Light winds are expected to keep us below red flag conditions. Fair weather will dominate, though a few spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Central Alabama this afternoon. The Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a fire alert that includes all of Central Alabama. For more information about restrictions, visit their web site at && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures: Today 9/27: Birmingham: 94 (1998, 1898, 1897) Montgomery: 96 (1954) Tuscaloosa: 97 (1954) Anniston: 97 (1954) Saturday 9/28: Birmingham: 94 (1986, 1911, 1904) Montgomery: 96 (1986) Tuscaloosa: 96 (1986, 1954) Anniston: 95 (1954) Sunday 9/29: Birmingham: 96 (1904) Montgomery: 96 (1904) Tuscaloosa: 96 (1986) Anniston: 95 (1904) Monday 9/30: Birmingham: 95 (1904) Montgomery: 97 (1904) Tuscaloosa: 96 (1954) Anniston: 94 (1904) Tuesday 10/1: Birmingham: 94 (1919) Montgomery: 95 (1954) Tuscaloosa: 95 (1954) Anniston: 93 (1954) Wednesday 10/2: Birmingham: 93 (1904) Montgomery: 95 (1904) Tuscaloosa: 95 (1954) Anniston: 93 (1954) Thursday 10/3: Birmingham: 93 (1911) Montgomery: 94 (1959) Tuscaloosa: 95 (1954) Anniston: 92 (1954) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 95 68 97 69 / 20 20 20 10 0 Anniston 70 95 69 97 69 / 20 30 20 10 0 Birmingham 72 96 73 97 72 / 20 20 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 70 97 72 98 72 / 10 10 0 0 0 Calera 70 98 70 99 69 / 20 20 10 0 0 Auburn 71 94 69 94 69 / 20 20 10 0 0 Montgomery 72 98 71 100 70 / 20 20 10 0 0 Troy 71 96 69 97 69 / 20 20 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$ 40/25/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
447 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 317 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Models initialized well today and continue to perform well with the placement of the current convection. PWATs from this morning`s sounding at Grand Junction was at .65 inches which is about 150% of normal so there is some available moisture for disturbances to work with. And work with them they are, as a weak disturbance is just clipping northern portions of our CWA while daytime heating and moisture and modest instability allow convection to form over the higher terrain. The biggest concern will be gusty winds this afternoon as convection taps into some stronger winds aloft. Gusts this afternoon have ranged in the 30 to 40 mph range north of I-70 and this trend will continue though some higher gusts under the convection is possible. Of note, the HRRR has been showing another weak disturbance moving through the area from mid-evening onwards generally north and along the I-70 corridor. If this pans out, the convection could continue for much of the overnight. Forecast follows suit though only slight chances for now. Later shifts can evaluate and modify as necessary. The big news continues to be the wind on Saturday as the next system drops down from the Pacific Northwest. This is the system that is expected to bring feet of snow to parts of Montana. For our neck of the woods, the upper level support for the system will slowly start moving into our area. The support is in the form of a 100kt jet that will strengthen over time. In addition to the jet, the surface pressure gradient will also tighten as the low gets closer to the area. This all means that we`ll see some winds on Saturday in a swath from east-central Utah up into northwestern Colorado. Gusts will reach 45 mph at times at the surface and possibly near 60 mph over Douglas Pass which has warranted a wind advisory for those areas tomorrow afternoon from noon through 9PM. The strongest winds are expected from 3PM through 6PM. A few showers and storms are also possible tomorrow afternoon but models have really pulled back on coverage and intensity for the area and shifted it to Idaho and Wyoming. Outside of the odd shower or storm, most areas will see partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures thanks to southwesterly flow and breezy conditions...more so for those areas in the advised areas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 317 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 More of the same on Sunday but it`ll be even windier. The low pressure will remain to our northwest but by this time, the jet stream will be blowing at 125 kts and will be directly overhead. Doesn`t look like there`ll be much in the way of clouds so nothing will inhibit deep mixing and with forecast soundings showing 50kt winds at 700mb, or 10,000 feet, we can expect a windy day, indeed. Any mixing will bring these winds to the surface. There`s a chance that some high wind warnings might be necessary for Sunday and if not warnings, certainly advisories. A few more model runs, and how windy we get on Saturday, will help with future forecasts. A few more showers and storms are possible mainly over the eastern Uintas and, to a lesser extent, the San Juans but again, the best precip will stay to our north. By Monday, the area of low pressure will have moved into Canada but the trough will remain to our west and the jet stream still stays overhead. Yep, another windy day expected though winds should be a less than those seen on Sunday. Dry conditions then set up with warm temperatures continuing until Wednesday when the upper level trough finally moves through. This trough passage will swing the winds back to the northwest bringing in some cooler air and dropping daytime highs several degrees. Dry conditions persist through the end of the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 443 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Gusty winds will continue this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over the mountains will the most and stronger storms north of Interstate 70. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours, due to spotty storm coverage. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001>003. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ024-025-027. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
940 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 - Heavy rain this evening across southern Lower Michigan - Low chances for rain linger into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Bands of heavy rain and convection will continue to develop through the late evening hours as a result of elevated instability and forcing from both the approaching cold front and llj. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms with hail cannot be completely ruled out given the elevated instability. However greater concerns continue to involve heavy rain and potential for mostly localized urban and small stream type flooding issues. Strong 1000-850 mb moisture transport as well as KGRR/rgnl radar trends continue to show potential for some localized flooding. Rgnl radar trends and latest runs of the HRRR suggest that the highest end rainfall amounts will most likely occur just south of our fcst area across extreme southern lower MI and northern IN (although it will be very close call for the I-94 corridor). Nevertheless widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or two are expected across roughly the southern half of our fcst area. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible where training of echoes is most persistent. This could cause some mainly urban and small stream type flooding issues. Our going forecast looks pretty good with only minor fcst tweaks necessary. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Rain amounts for tonight continue to be the forecast issue as various model solutions show a lull between the current batch of storms and a second area of convection forming over northern Illinois this evening and reaching into the southern half of Lower Michigan. We have adjusted QPF a bit further south with storm totals around 1.5 inches or more south of Grand Rapids and Lansing. This would include what falls this afternoon. The severe weather threat is low since the storms are elevated but we have seen winds gusting to over 50 mph near Lake Michigan on the backside of the convection, so there could be a period of strong winds in a wake low set up. Once the second batch of storms goes through tonight we expect improving conditions with only slight or low chances of rain over the rest of the weekend. Convection could form along a warm front on Sunday night or Monday morning, so this will have to be monitored. That warm front comes back south on Tuesday and Wednesday so more storms are possible then. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 815 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 There is currently active convection over most of our TAF sites and there is additional storms upstream to west of CHI that will have move through our TAF sites this evening. It would seem the heaviest storms will be in the 03z to 06z time frame. Expect IFR cigs/vsby in the stronger storms and gusty winds. There is a large area of low clouds (IFR) cigs just north of I-96 that will move south across the all of the TAF sites after 06z behind the rain and thunderstorms. The low clouds will clear out by mid to late afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 815 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Since winds have diminished we have replaced the gale warning with Small Craft Advisory that will continue it Saturday afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Laurens SYNOPSIS...Ostuno DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM MARINE...WDM
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
958 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move southeast into the Great Lakes tonight, then south across the Ohio Valley region Saturday into Saturday night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. High pressure will build back into the region through the first half of next week. This will lead to dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Storms in northeastern Indiana produced an outflow boundary late this afternoon, which proceeded to progress across a fairly healthy chunk of the ILN forecast area over the next several hours. The air mass over the ILN CWA was not particularly favorable for convection, but a region of greater boundary layer moisture had advected northward along the IN/OH border, and provided just enough instability to allow the outflow to spark off a series of showers and storms. This activity has dissipated with the loss of diurnal heating, leaving dry conditions for a while. The next chance for precipitation appears to be across the central and eastern sections of the CWA in the 08Z-14Z time frame, with consistent signals from the HRRR and NAM that a shortwave will combine with increasing moisture near and just above the boundary layer to bring storm development. PoPs were increased slightly for this activity, especially along and east of US-23 around 12Z. Based on current trends, some slight upward adjustments were made to min temps. Previous discussion > Have issued an SPS for our northern/eastern zones through early evening where warm temperatures, low dewpoints/low RHs, gusty winds, and dry small fuels have brought a short term enhanced fire danger. Otherwise, will continue to watch convection to our northwest per mosaic radar. Convection should make west central Ohio by late afternoon or early evening before falling apart during the evening hours. Have a chance of showers/storms there. Otherwise, some debris clouds will overspread the north while the south remains mostly clear. For the overnight hours, a cold front will continue to move southeast into the Great Lakes. Embedded s/wv energy and a low level jet will bring renewed convection along and ahead of the front. CAMs suggest that some of this convection, perhaps generated by an outflow boundary, may propagate or develop across our north late. For our southern zones, it will remain mostly clear for a good part of the night. Then, models indicate broad but weak, moist ascent in the 925 mb-850 mb range (associated with a weak mid level s/wv) which should allow skies to become partly cloudy. Elevated instability may also result in a low chance of a shower or storm, especially across south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Overnight lows will range from the lower to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Any convection ongoing in the east should wane or move east during the morning with a brief reprieve in the pcpn threat. Then, aforementioned cold front will make its way south into our northern zones during the afternoon. Stronger dynamics will remain to our north, but some moderate instability and weak low low level convergence will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the north. SPC just skims our far east with a marginal risk for severe storms. This is due to moderate instability overlapping with some moderate shear. Coverage is too small to mention in the HWO at this time. Southern locations should remain dry on Saturday. It will be another very warm to hot day, especially south where the front will not have moved through. Highs will range from the lower 80s far northwest, to the lower 90s along and south of the Ohio River. A record high could be threaten at KCVG. For Saturday night, convection should wane during the evening as the front slowly sags south toward the Ohio River. An upstream s/wv and a low level jet may bring renewed convection to our west/northwest overnight, but it is unclear if this will make it into our area. Have gone dry with skies ranging from partly to mostly cloudy. Lows will range from the lower to the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... he extended period begins with a front stalled over the region. The NAM and GFS are taking an H5 s/w across Ohio on the northern edge of the upper ridge which is producing some scattered convection. The ECMWF and CMC keep any precipitation northwest of the area. Leaned towards the drier forecast, since we have had a hard time getting rainfall lately. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s in the far northwest to around 90 in nrn KY. The H5 ridge will continue to expand northward during the first part of next week, with the center of the ridge reaching the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday. This will bring dry weather and unseasonably hot temperatures. Forecast highs Monday will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s Monday and lower 90s Tuesday. These readings will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal and could set records Tuesday. Forecast for Wednesday has changed a little. Models now are quicker in bringing a cold front into the region. The consensus is that it will have reached the northern counties by 00Z Thursday. This might bring isolated convection into the north. Highs will still be much above normal, ranging from upper 80s in the north to the lower 90s south. The front continues to push south Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring lower temperatures and chance PoPs. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the far northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While generally quiet conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the forecast period, convection cannot be completely ruled out at several times in the next 24 hours. Storms over northern Indiana / northwest Ohio have been building southward this evening, but it is not expected that they will make it into the Dayton / Columbus airports as of now. Later in the overnight and early Saturday morning, there is a slightly greater chance for scattered showers and storms to develop near the Dayton / Wilmington / Columbus airports. A VCSH has been included here. Cincinnati is less likely to be affected. Outside of any possible precipitation, tracking wind shifts will be the only real concern to watch in the TAFs. Gusty winds this afternoon have diminished, and will remain out of the SSW through the overnight hours in the 5-10 knot range. These winds will increase slightly tomorrow out of the SW, before a cold front moves into the area tomorrow night. This front will eventually shift winds to the NE, with a period of light and variable winds before it arrives. This looks like it will occur just beyond the end of the current forecast period. There may also be some low level wind shear overnight in northern Indiana and northwest Ohio, but right now it does not appear it will be strong enough to include in the TAFs. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .CLIMATE... Anomalously strong mid level ridge over the area late this weekend into next week. H5 heights look to be 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Temperatures are forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with temperatures approaching records next Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday. Records... SEP 30th CVG 92...year 1941 & 1953 DAY 94...year 1897 CMH 92...year 1953 OCT 1st CVG 88...year 1897, 1919 & 1927 DAY 93...year 1897 CMH 89...year 1952 OCT 2nd CVG 90...year 1919 DAY 90...year 1898 & 1900 CMH 88...year 1919 OCT 3rd CVG 89...year 1910 & 1919 DAY 93...year 1900 CMH 89...year 1898 & 1953 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hatzos CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible through the early overnight hours with isolated large hail and gusty winds as the main threats. The biggest concern however will likely be locally heavy rainfall and flooding. There also is some concern for flash flooding especially from northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday into early Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid and upper 60s. High temperatures on Saturday will range from around 70 across far southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 80s across northeast Indiana and portions of northwest Ohio. && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Initial cluster of showers and storms marking leading edge of steeper mid level lapse rates has brought pockets of heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with localized radar estimated 3+ inch amounts across west central Indiana (Pulaski County). Persistent isentropic ascent over associated outflow boundary also aided in training of these cells. With initial advective forcing beginning to shift across northwest Ohio, attention for late evening/early overnight will turn to northeast Illinois/northwest Indiana/southwest Lower Michigan. Sheared, low amplitude wave lifting across west central Illinois will continue to promote renewed convective development from west central Illinois into northwest Indiana. Robust shear profiles exist in association with low level jet in pre-frontal environment, with axis of steepest mid level lapse rates orienting itself across NW Indiana/SW Lower Michigan late evening/early overnight. This low level jet will also help advect a 750-1500 MLCAPE axis northeastward into far northwest portions of the forecast area late this evening. In mixed layer sense, still expecting enough convective inhibition to mitigate true surface based convective/tornado threat. Perhaps greatest concern in terms of severe threat next several hours will be potential of isolated large hail given combination of increasing instability, orientation of steepest mid level lapse rates, and the possibility of at least elevated supercell structures aiding large hail formation. Already monitoring one storm that appears to be producing very large hail northwest of Kankakee IL as of this writing. Greatest severe threat should exist locally in the 01Z- 05Z period with hail as first order threat, followed by isolated damaging wind gusts. A very brief window may still exist for isolated tornado potential far west late this evening, but confidence is very low. Heavy rain will be the primary concern overnight as highly anomalous 1.75 to 2 inch PWATS axis settles across northwest half of the area. Large portion of shear parallel to approaching boundary should promote cell mergers overnight with heavy rainfall potential. Expecting areas which received heaviest rainfall earlier today to at least get a brief break from heavier rain late this evening, but southeast progression of frontal forcing will shift this threat across these areas overnight. No changes currently anticipated to flash flood watch although an eventual slight eastward expansion may be needed. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Forecast is focused on the first 24 hours of the forecast. There are two main hazards that could affect portions of the area during that timeframe: Strong to Severe Storms, and Flash Flooding. There are two rounds of convection anticipated. This first round is the convection currently moving across the area and stretching back into IL. The second round is expected along a slow moving cold front late this evening/overnight. With this first round, storms will remain initially elevated while spreading eastwards as dewpoints in the 60s are still in east- central IL. BUFR sounding show instability within the EML ranges between 500 and 1000J/kg this afternoon and increases towards 1500 J/kg just prior to 00Z. Decent 0-6km and 0-3km shear of 30 to 35kt are in place across northern IN, southern Lower MI, and NW OH and hodographs within the EML are shown to be unidirectional. This setup would point primarily to a large hail and possibly a damaging wind risk. So far storms have struggled to produce hail over the size of nickels (Peoria, IL), but further destablization is anticipated as we move further into the afternoon hours. There is a narrow window around 00Z where low level dewpoints in the mid-60s surge into the western zones and storms could become surface based. Should this occur, then all hazards would be on the take. Confidence is low, but worth a mention, as this will be a very narrow window as soundings should low level winds veering quickly around 00Z. Storms with this round has shown the ability to produce locally heavy rainfall given increasing moisture advection. These storms should remain progressive, but recent RADAR trends show storms could become stalled over the same location. The second round of storms is expected this evening and overnight as a cold front slowly drifts southwards. The severe risk looks conditional with this round given the loss of daytime heating, and weak height rises aloft. With that being said, there remains decent enough instability and deep layer shear in place for a strong to severe storm. Hail and damaging wind gusts should be the main hazards especially given increased precip loading of the downdrafts bringing the 40-50kt LLJ to the surface. RUC 0-1km storm relative helicity will also be on the rise from 00Z to 06Z so there is a low, non-zero, chance for a brief tornado generally west of HWY 31. Looking at the flooding risk with this round: Models show a classic Maddox frontal type heavy rain scenario this evening and overnight. This is from the combination of surging surface dewpoints, 850mb advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture, a Pacific moisture teleconnection at 500mb, and a slow moving frontal boundary. Given these factors it`s no surprise models show PWATs in the 1.75" to 2" range early this afternoon into Saturday. Late this evening and overnight, the cold front will slowly enter the CWA. Storm motions at that time will become parallel to the front which will result in a prolonged period of storm training. Storm totals have been on the up-tick throughout the day and have trended with them. The result is up to 2 inches expected west of a White County to Kosciusko County, IN to Cass County, MI line. Lower amounts are expected east of this line. If the up-tick continues in model output then amounts will need to be adjusted. Considering the potential rainfall from both rounds of storms, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for locations west of a White County to Kosciusko County, IN to Cass County, MI for this afternoon through late tonight. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Front remains stalled over the area on Saturday with scattered storms possible. Cold front start to move back north on Sunday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US. An isolated storm can`t be ruled out across the NW. Monday through Tuesday continue to look very warm and dry. High temperatures could threaten a few records. Wednesday and Thursday sees the high shift to the east and allow another cold front to slide across the area with associated storms. Friday into the weekend, look pleasant as temperatures drop back towards normal for early October. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 650 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Difficult forecast for terminals regarding duration of thunder as complicated setup continues to unfold this evening. Area of showers and thunderstorms marking the eastward expansion of sharp increase in elevated instability continues to track eastward across northeast Indiana early this evening. Outflow boundary deposited from this convection along with fairly strong low level jet as allowed renewed storm development across northwest Indiana and these cells have trained over the same locations just south of the Route 30 corridor. Would expect a few more hours of thunderstorms at KFWA to begin this period with perhaps a break after 03Z. Focus late evening and especially overnight should eventually shift back across northwest Indiana into south central Lower Michigan where sheared upper level wave lifts northeast from Missouri and slowly southeast sagging frontal boundary result in renewed thunderstorm development. This should provide a period of storms at KSBN in the 04Z-08Z time window and eventually posing best threat of more organized thunder at KFWA in the 07Z-10Z period. Showers and storms should diminish after 10Z with a continued chance of scattered showers into Saturday as front stalls across the area. MVFR cigs are expected to accompany the front tonight from northwest to southeast with a period of IFR cigs also possible at KSBN late tonight/early Saturday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for INZ003>005-012>016-020. MI...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ077-078. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...CM LONG TERM...CM AVIATION...Marsili Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
259 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures and showers across the area for the next few days. Snow is likely in the surrounding mountains, with light slushy accumulations Sunday morning possible in some higher valleys. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday evening. The promised pattern change that brings much cooler and a showery regime has begun. Surface front has sagged and stalled out over northern Nevada. No weather has accompanied this front aside from a layer of altocumulus that cuts across the I80 corridor. As the anomalous upper low pressure system continues to amplify, increasing upwards motion along this boundary will generate showers later this evening. The favored area will be over Elko County with the higher resolution HRRR showing the preferred area just north of I80. An area of convective potential does exist southeast of Ely that includes Great Basin Natl Park, a thunderstorm is possible for this area this evening. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the cold deep trough pivots into northwest Nevada by Saturday afternoon/evening time frame. Showers will be expanding across northeast Nevada, but trailing back into the middle part of the state. Cold air quickly spreads across the state with 700 mb temperatures approaching -10C by Sunday morning. Snow levels will lower Saturday evening and reach many valleys floors overnight. The first significant snowfall will occur in the surrounding mountains, with several inches possible in the Rubies and a Winter Weather advisory will be issued to account for this. Current precipitation projections show one half inch /0.50/ to one inch /1.00/ will fall over White Pine and eastern Elko Counties. For other areas, lesser amounts are expected. While most of this falls as rain in the valleys, many mountains will be snow covered by Sunday morning. Light slushy accumulations (less than one inch) will occur at some valleys, although Lamoille and northern Elko County may receive 1-2 inches late Saturday night. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night through next Friday. Sunday and Monday. The storm system will still be present over NV with the system rotating a band of moisture across mainly northern NV. This moisture should still cause showers in northern NV and the northern reaches of central NV. At the same time the system will still be training unseasonably cold air across NV which will see the snow levels continue to be low. This means the showers for early next week will be mainly snow for the mountains and high valleys to a mix for mid valleys and pure rain for the lower valleys. The temperatures will be abnormally cold for this time of year which will likely lead to widespread below freezing temperatures during the overnight and morning hours. Tuesday. The storms system will leave the region by translating to the east with a ridge building into the area. This will lead to the departure of the moisture with only a few remnant showers lingering in mainly northeastern NV. The cold below freezing temperatures should remain over NV during the overnight and morning hours as well. Wednesday through Friday. The pattern should become a bit more progressive during the mid and latter portions of next week with a ridge followed by a weak trough. This time should be a mainly dry period with the exception of light rain possible on Thursday. Temperatures should warm during this period as well but be still be below normal overall. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue across northern and central Nevada today though it is breezy. A Storm system is beginning to move in to area with rain showers developing in Elko County today and then expand in coverage tonight into Saturday. The weekend will see the full system which will produce widespread rain and snow showers. Snow levels will plummet with this system with the snow expected to reach to the valley floors. This will lead mountain obscurations throughout all of NV. In addition lower clouds decks will be present at KELY which should be MVFR with the system passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... With colder and wetter weather arriving, there are no fire weather concerns for the next several days. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon PDT Sunday for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range. && $$ 88/99/99/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
728 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2019 RAP analysis indicates that the sfc low has quickly exited to the northeast and will reach James Bay before 20Z. Sfc obs show that the attendant cold front is just now beginning to push into IWD from the west as of 18Z, but the drier airmass will trail about 6 hours behind the front. Only a few isolated light rain showers remain over the west half, with some heavier showers stretching SW to NE through Menominee/Delta/Schoolcraft/E Alger counties along a band of 800-750 mb Fgen well ahead of the sfc front. May be a rumble of thunder or two in this area through the early evening. Showers will gradually diminish and exit east through this evening, drying out completely after midnight. Wind gusts have struggled at times to mix all the way to the surface today but there have been several spots with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. As the low continues to exit this afternoon and evening, winds will continue to diminish as they shift to NWerly behind the front. However, over the eastern UP and especially along the Lake Superior shoreline there will be another period with 10-20+ mph gusts overnight as high pressure building in from the west keeps the pressure gradient moderately strong over that region. Skies are expected to gradually clear from west to east through tonight, and some locations may have a decent chance to go Aurora hunting as the SWPC has a G2 geomagnetic storm watch in place. Pack a jacket though, as temperatures will be chilly! Should be just enough turbulence over the west as well to prevent frost formation but forecast lows are in the mid 30s over the interior with 40s expected lakeside. Tomorrow looks nice, with calmer winds and mostly clear skies, but highs will struggle to reach 60 for most. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 442 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2019 A trough amplifying over the western CONUS tonight into Saturday will result in a downstream ridge over the eastern CONUS later this weekend into early next week. As a result, there may be one or perhaps two, warm days (solidly above normal temps) early next week as an ejecting shortwave from the western trough sends an associated sfc low on a northeastward track just nw of Upper MI, placing the fcst area briefly in the warm sector. Warm advection ahead of the sfc low will result in the best chance of widespread rain late Sun into Mon. There will likely be lingering chances for showers into Tue as the cold frontal boundary with the early week`s system works its way through the area. Thereafter, models are trending toward some degree of troughing in se Canada which will allow cooler conditions (probably a few days of blo normal temps) to prevail until next weekend as sfc high pressure builds into the region. May even be some isolated lake effect rain showers in a ne flow lingering into midweek for west and north central sections. Sat night/Sun, high pressure should remain firmly in control, keeping conditions dry through the much of the period. Under clear skies at least into the evening hours, could be a little patchy frost forming over interior locations west and central Sat night as readings dip toward the mid 30s. 40s readings are expected along the Great Lakes shores. Increasing WAA ahead of a shortwave and associated sfc low lifting northward through the Plains, may produce a little light rain into the WI border counties late Sunday. Highs Sun will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s under increasing cloud cover. During Sun night, approach of sfc warm front, nose of 40-50kt low- level jet aimed toward Upper MI and advection of elevated instability of 500-1000 j/kg toward the area should yield more widespread rain and sct t-storms. With precipitable water surging up to around 1.5 inches, 200-250pct of normal, heavy rainfall will be possible. Rain will diminish to scattered showers on Mon as the sfc warm front lifts n of Upper MI. If the front does lift n, it will become a warm/humid day with high temps generally in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints into the 60s. Tue, as the shortwave lifts across northern Ontario this will push the system`s cold front southeast across the area. Placement of the front will be important as it will become a focus for episodes of moderate to heavy rainfall. Models continue to fcst a gradient across the fcst area with lowest chc of showers nw and highest potential southeast. High temps will fall back to the 60s Tue under clouds and pcpn and developing northerly onshore flow developing behind the front. Wed into Fri, the cold front is expected to push farther southeast of the area on Wed with sfc high pressure building in from Ontario/Manitoba. This should result in a general drying trend for the area mid to late week, however with one caveat. Models do indicate a pretty cool air mass advecting in behind the front with 850 mb temps dropping as low as -2C. This combination of colder air and any sw flow shortwave advecting across the area could spawn periods of scattered lake effect rain showers, especially into the west and north central sections of the cwa Wed-Thu where showers will be more favored in upslope/onshore ne flow. High temps will fall back into the 50s on Wed, and some higher terrain locations over the w and n central may see high temps drop into the upper 40s on Thu. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2019 Ceilings continue to improve early this evening with all three sites reporting MVFR/VFR at this time. Only concern in the first few hours of the forecast is at KCMX, where northerly winds may advect in enough moisture to lower ceilings IFR for a few hours before drier air works in. As the cold front continues to push through the region and high pressure builds in, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 242 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2019 A cold front located from just east of Isle Royale to near Houghton to near Land-o-Lakes WI this afternoon will continue eastward this evening and tonight. Behind the front winds shift to NW and relax back to around 20 kts over the east and lower over the west overnight. They subside further on Saturday to below 15 kts as high pressure moves overhead. The next strong system approaches Lake Superior Monday with some strong E winds to 25 kts possible as early as Sunday evening over the western lake. Winds of 20-30 kts out of the SE are possible over the eastern lake Monday morning. Otherwise, winds should remain at or below 20 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...RJT MARINE...KCW
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
850 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue to lift north through central NC tonight. A strong high pressure ridge aloft will build over the Gulf and Southeast states through the weekend, resulting in continued above normal temperatures. A backdoor front will then drop southward through the region early Monday, with high pressure nosing in from the northeast Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 835 PM Friday... Scattered storms continue to wax and wane along a warm front and merged seabreeze/outflows moving north through the CWA....stretching from approx CLT-HRJ-ISO-MHX. Storms have been sub-severe criteria until recently with a couple storms in Harnett and Hoke Counties show signs of depth and wet-downburst potential. Expect the northward migration of showers and storms to continue to the north through midnight but with an overall decreasing trend in coverage after midnight, with just a shower or two in the northern Piedmont in the morning...per latest HRRR runs. Some patchy fog is possible but coverage seems too low to add to the forecast given scattered mid-clouds and widespread anvil blow off for much of the area. Lows 67-71. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 PM Friday... More warm weather is on tap for Saturday as the stalled front from Friday will be well north of the region. This will be thanks to a mid-level ridge slowly amplifying over the northern Gulf of Mexico. 1000/850 MB thicknesses are forecast to be around 1420 M with 850 MB temperatures around 18 degrees C. These type of values will easily support high temperatures near 90 degrees. Most of the area will be dry Saturday with the exception being a slight chance of a storm moving off the mountains towards the Piedmont in the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM Friday... Mid and upper level ridge centered over the northern GOMEX and Southeast Coast today will expand once again across the southeastern quad of the US next week, resulting in another spell of temps 10-15 degrees or more above normal and mostly dry conditions. The lone period in the extended with higher uncertainty will be late Sun through late Mon, when a backdoor front is progged to slip down the mid-Atlantic coast and into central NC. Medium range guidance suggests some showers or an isolated storm mainly in the northeast CWA late Sunday amidst weak destablization ahead of the sfc-925mb front frontal zone, though the low level convergence and overall forcing looks weak. Will keep a 20-25 POP in for the afternoon and a 15-20 POP in the southern CWA overnight as the front slips south. Northeasterly flow behind the front should support some stratus across the northeast CWA early Monday, transitioning to or developing in the western Piedmont later Monday as the 925mb flow becomes more east-southeasterly. A few showers are possible but again mostly areas will remain dry with temps low to mid 80s. The heat returns for the latter half of the week, with 850mb temps again approaching or exceeding 20C by Thursday ion pre-frontal westerly flow and guidance in pretty good agreement on upper 80s Wednesday to solid lower 90s Thursday. This would again break high temp records. A long awaited strong front is then forecast to move into the area Friday and bring temps plummeting back to normal && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: A front remains stalled across central NC, roughly south of KRDU and KRWI, north of KFAY. Showers and storms across the south (KFAY) will likely continue for the next few hours or so, with reduced visbys and gusty winds where they occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU for much of the evening. A period of sub-vfr cigs and visbys is possible at all sites overnight, earliest at KRWI and possibly not at all at KFAY. Confidence is somewhat low regarding the occurrence, location and duration of the reduced cigs and visbys. As the stalled surface boundary lifts northward through the remainder of the area through Saturday morning, it should help improve aviation conditions back to VFR at KRWI and KRDU toward daybreak and elsewhere thereafter. -KC Looking ahead: A weak cold front will cross the region Monday morning with stratus likely developing across the eastern TAF sites and then spreading west. MVFR/ IFR conditions could then continue into Monday afternoon. -Haines && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures (Year) GSO RDU FAY 9/27 90 (2017) 94 (1998) 94 (2017) 9/28 92 (1939) 95 (1998) 95 (2017) The Piedmont Triad International Airport (KGSO) has only received 0.02" of rainfall for the month of September as of the 27th. If KGSO does not receive any more rainfall this month, this will be the second driest September on record (1903- Present). Year September Rainfall (inches) 1985 T 2019 0.02"* 1939 0.13" 1961 0.20" 2005 0.23" *As of September 27th. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Smith SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...KC/Haines CLIMATE...CC/ Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The RAP and NAM solutions show increasing low level convergence along the frontal boundary across south central KS where latest satellite imagery indicates some convective updrafts trying to develop. All of the CAMs have been consistent in storms developing along the boundary around 00Z. Initially storms will be capable of damaging hail and winds as deep layer shear around 45KT and 3000 to 4000 J/kg of CAPE promote severe storms. The NAM and GFS forecast soundings show the 0-3km hodograph becoming more curved and expansive as the low level jet strengthens. This causes 0-1km SRH in increase as well to around 300 m2/s2. Think by this time storms will be pretty much a broken line along the boundary, but there could be some potential for a tornado after sunset. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 As of 19Z this afternoon, a surface cold front is progressing southward across northeast Kansas, with the boundary located just northwest of Manhattan. The boundary will continue southward across the forecast area into this evening before stalling in east-central Kansas overnight. The airmass ahead of the front has become very hot and humid, especially for this time of the year, with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Instability will continue to build along and ahead of the front with models showing 3000 to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE into the evening hours, primarily near and south of the Kansas Turnpike. Looking at shear parameters near the boundary, directional shear is lacking due to primarily southwesterly flow through the column. Speed shear is more impressive as a result of stronger winds aloft. Thus, effective bulk shear values are expected to range from 30 to 40 kts just ahead of the boundary with higher values behind it. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary between 23Z and 01Z , with the most likely area of storm initiation along a line extending from near Emporia to near Topeka. Strong to severe storms will be possible given the amount of instability and shear in place. Large hail is looking like one of the main hazards of concern. Damaging wind will also be possible with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/Kg. Additionally, localized flash flooding will also be possible, especially where storms train over the same locations, with models showing precipitable water values increasing to near climatology max for this time of the year. Elevated storms will continue to be possible through the overnight period north of the frontal boundary as a result of isentropic ascent near the 850 mb front which will be located northwest of the surface boundary. Thus, rain will become possible over locations north of I-70 as we transition into the nighttime period. Going into Saturday, the surface warm front continues to be stalled along the I-35 corridor, with a baroclinic zone set up to the southeast. The overall placement of this front still has a great deal of uncertainty, with some disagreement between the deterministic models and even greater spread between the SREF members. Southerly flow south of the front will continue to enhance the gradients of temperature, moisture, and instability through the day. Saturday`s severe chances continue to be of concern, with continued southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels expected to steer a shortwave trough through the CWA. This will provide chances at ignition all along the front in the afternoon. Forecast hodographs continue to show good low-level backing of winds from 0-1 km AGL. Southern sections of the CWA will have surface-based CAPE values climbing to over 2000 J/kg, providing sufficient energy for strong storms once initiation occurs. Storms should spread southwest to northeast across the region. Initial convective mode could take on super cellular characteristics initially, but will most likely become less organized as they grow upscale. Winds and hail are the primary concern, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two. Storms should be rather progressive in their movement through the evening. PWAT`s continue to be well above the seasonal average, introducing flooding concerns. Storm total rainfall look to range from 1 to 3 inches, with the higher amounts being focused wherever training occurs. The best chances for flooding currently look to be south and east of I-35. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Transitioning into the extended period, an active weather pattern looks to continue into next week. Any lingering showers and storms look to end early Sunday as midlevel heights rapidly rise and the surface baroclinic zone progresses well north. Dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday as any notable shortwave troughs remain well north of the area with the main midlevel trough remaining across the western CONUS. The next good chance for showers and storms looks to arrive through the day Tuesday as a stronger shortwave trough ejects across the Northern Plains shunting an attendant surface trough into the area. Sufficient shear and instability is likely to be in place for the potential for severe thunderstorms, especially Tuesday afternoon. In addition, the front looks to be slow moving with the detachment of the midlevel shortwave across the Northern Plains. This will unfortunately set the stage for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall Tuesday into Thursday. Temperatures look to remain in the 80s prior to the arrival of the aforementioned surface front. Temperatures are likely to be notably cooler by Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Confidence is increasing in TS impacting the terminals this evening. Will use the CAMs to base timing of storms. Otherwise low clouds are expected to build in overnight and not leave the region. In fact models maintain an easterly wind over the area for much of the day with the frontal boundary remaining to the south of the terminals. This looks to be a favorable setup for MVFR or IFR CIGS to persist through much of the day Saturday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Teefey/Petersen LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Wolters