Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/23/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1035 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A southwest return flow around high pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast, will bring mild conditions tonight into Monday. A cold front will cross the area late Monday, bringing showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the early evening. A cooler air mass will be over the region on Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers possible. Fair and dry weather returns for Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1035 PM EDT...High clouds have increased a little bit, as they move over the area from the west. Temperatures in a couple of spots have fallen lower than previously forecast, but most of going forecast was on track. Mainly fair and mild night continues. Previous... The majority of the high resolution mesoscale guidance has trended drier for the mid to late pm across the west northwest portion of the forecast area. We did keep an isolated threat for a shower as a lake breeze or differential heating boundary may focus a few over the southern Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk Valley and the northern Catskills between 21Z-00Z. The 3-km NAM and ARW-WRF2 support this...but the 3-km HRRR and traditional ARW-WRF indicate dry conditions. Any activity should shrivel up with the loss of the diurnal heating. Tonight...A balmy night will be on tap compared to the last several with high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast continuing to pump mild air into the region. Lows will be in the mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations with upper 50s to lower/mid 60s over the higher terrain. Some low stratus may form and creep into western New England and the mid Hudson Valley. South to southwest winds will be 5 to 15 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tomorrow...The mid and upper level ridge breaks down as the flow aloft strengthens from the southwest. A potent mid and upper level low will be approaching from the Great Lakes Region and Ontario. A muggy air mass will continue ahead of the approaching short-wave trough and a sfc cold front. Scattered showers will likely blossom in the afternoon ahead of the front, as mid and upper level heights fall. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, but again instability in any shape, variety or computed form looks fairly weak with 750 J/kg or less with the sfc dewpts in the 60s. Their could be a few gusts of wind in the 35-50 mph range with any taller updrafts achieved. The deep shear and dynamics aloft are good with upper level divergence and the forecast area near the left front quadrant of a mid an upper level jet streak by 00Z/TUE. The severe threat is not zero, but the probability is very low. The greatest chance for thunderstorms looks like 4 pm to 10 pm. Highs will be above normal with 70s to lower to mid 80s across the region. PWATS will surge +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the 12Z GEFS, but with flow so fast aloft, and bone dry conditions lately (no rain in a week), any bursts of rain will be quick. A tenth to a third of an inch of rain will be welcomed. Mon Night...Cooler air will invade the region for the 1st day of Autumn (it will have begun at 350 am EDT on Mon). Some isolated to scattered showers will linger into the early evening with the upper low moving overhead. Lows will fall back into the 50s to around 60F across the region. Tuesday...Clearing is expected south of the I-90 corridor, but the cyclonic vorticity advection with the closed upper low coupled with minimal heating will allow for terrain forced and instability showers forming over the northern zones. Any additional QPF will be light. H850 temps will be a shade below normal, but nothing way below normal for the opening days of Fall. It will be brisk and cool compared to the previous few days with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the valleys, and 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. Tuesday night to Wednesday...High pressure builds in with fair and dry weather returning. A cool night with temps in the 40s to around 50F will be followed by a nice start to the mid week with highs near normal in the 60s to lower 70s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The period starts out Wednesday night with a progressive cold front and associated low-amplitude upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region. Guidance in good agreement with timing, as a few showers may make it into the the northwest part of our area by sunrise Thursday. Much of the area will remain dry through the night. The front and upper trough will move across our region on Thursday. Once again moisture looks to be limited, although low level convergence along the front and some forcing from the upper trough should result in at least scattered showers for much of the area. Temperatures will continue to be mild ahead of the cold front, cooling off in the Adirondacks where the front will be likely moving through earlier in the day. A period of dry and increasingly warmer weather then looks to occur during the Friday through Sunday time frame, as yet another upper level ridge is expected to build along the east coast. Initially, temperatures will be slightly above normal Friday, but then well above normal levels will be possible over the weekend as the ridge strengthens. There are some model differences, with the GFS indicating a cold front passage Saturday night. However, will side more with the drier/warmer ECMWF and CMC, which have the strong upper ridge remaining in place. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low Level Wind Shear expected at all TAF sites from this evening through the overnight period and included in TAFs. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Monday as high pressure holds its influence on the region. Mainly high clouds expected overnight and Monday morning. Some MVFR/IFR fog expected at KGFL as winds have gone calm already. With light winds overnight, do not expect any fog to form at other TAF sites. Precipitation chances increase beyond 18Z/Monday with the cold front. Winds will remain south to southwest between 5 and 10 kts overnight except KGFL where they will be calm most of the night. After daybreak Monday, south to southwest winds will increase to around 10 kts with gusts up to 20kts. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast will bring mild conditions to the region tonight. A cold front and a strong upper level disturbance will bring showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Cooler conditions return on Tuesday, as an upper low will keep isolated to scattered shower going for locations north of the Capital Region. The RH values will increase to 75 to 100 percent Monday morning, and the drop to 45 to 75 percent by the afternoon. The maximum RH values Tuesday morning will be in the 85 to 100 percent range. The winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, then increase to 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon before veering to the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph by the late afternoon into the early evening. A widespread wetting, but light rain may occur across the region tomorrow into Tuesday with amounts range from a tenth to third of an inch or so. It has not rained in about a week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated across the region over the next 7 days. The next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance on Monday into Tuesday morning. Most spots will see between one tenth and one third of an inch of rain, which will have little impact on area rivers and streams...maybe flows will rise a few centimeters and then recede. According to USGS streamflow, most area rivers are seeing near normal or below normal flows for mid to late September. Lingering showers on Tuesday (especially for northern areas)may yield additional rainfall amounts of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. More dry weather is expected for Tuesday night into the mid week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula NEAR TERM...SND/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1122 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move south of the region overnight. Low pressure will approach Monday and slowly cross northern Maine through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday evening. A cold front will approach and cross the area on Thursday followed by high pressure on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1120 PM Update...Adjusted the pops and temps to reflect the latest conditions. Radar showed isolated showers moving toward NW ME. Pulled back on the timing some using the HRRR and High Res WRF. Should see showers showing up across northern areas by early Monday morning. Temps were holding steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tweaks were made to show temps dropping off slightly overnight. Rest of the forecast looks fine. Previous Forecast... A southwest flow will be in place across the region tonight between an approaching cold front from the northwest and high pressure off the mid-atlantic. The southwest breeze and increasing cloud cover will keep low temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s across the region. A few showers are expected to develop across far northern areas overnight, especially toward the St.John Valley nearer to the approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly move south across Northern areas on Monday. Expect mainly cloudy skies and a chance for showers across northern and central areas on Monday. Across central and downeast areas, expect a partly sunny start followed by increasing afternoon clouds along with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs on Monday across the north will still be above normal but not as warm as today, with generally low to mid 70s expected. Across central and downeast areas, highs will be near 80 degrees but a little cooler near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Mon ngt, an upper low crossing E across QB prov will be close enough to result in weak secondary sfc cyclogenesis ovr Downeast, with banding of shwrs movg W to E into our FA, and then SW to NE across our FA on Tue. Depending on where the banding with isolated thunder occurs (which looks msly Cntrl and Downeast attm) and longevity ovr ptns of the FA, there is the potential of sig to lcly hvy rnfl late Mon ngt thru Tue eve, but for now, given the uncertainty of these factors, we went middle of the road for fcst 6 hrly QPF values for our Rgn thru this tm frame with max 90+ percent PoPs. Lgtr rnfl will cont late Tue ngt with shwrs becoming sct Wed morn as both sfc and upper low move E across the Can Maritimes, then ending Wed aftn. Temps will be cooler both Tue and Wed, spcly N and Cntrl areas with mild ovrngt lows. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our FA will receive a brief respite between system Wed eve into ovrngt before cldnss increases ahead of the next s/wv trof apchg from Cntrl Can late Wed ngt. Shwrs will then move into the FA by Thu ahead of the cold front associated with the s/wv as the s/wv moves msly N of our Rgn. Subsequently, the best event rnfl potential of a quarter to half inch will likely be experienced across the N where we weight the highest PoPs in the likely range with both lower PoPs and QPF Cntrl and Downeast areas. Shwrs end behind the cold front late Thu ngt, resulting in the return of fair, breezy and dry erly fall like wx for Fri and Sat as sfc hi pres from the great lks builds toward and crests the Rgn with the slower 12z ECMWF favored ovr the faster 00z GFS model solution for dry conditions Sat. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected tonight with southwest winds around 10 kts. Low level wind shear is possible vicinity KHUL/KBGR late tonight through early Monday morning. MVFR conditions can be expected at the northern terminals on Monday in showers with an approaching cold front. At KBGR/KBHB, VFR conditions much of the day. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon ngt thru Tue Ngt - IFR clgs/vsbys all TAF sites mainly in shwrs/rn with patchy late ngt fog Downeast sites late Mon ngt/early Tue morn. Lgt winds. Wed - MVFR clgs all TAF sites improving to VFR Wed aftn. Lgt winds. Wed ngt - All sites VFR. Lgt winds. Thu thru Thu ngt - All sites MVFR clgs/vsbys in shwrs. Lgt Winds. Fri - All sites VFR. Breezy NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is being issued beginning around daybreak Monday and continuing through Monday afternoon for the outer waters. Winds/seas are expected to slowly increase overnight. On Monday expectd gusts to around 25 KT and seas 4 to 7 feet. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially SCA conditions outer MZs mainly for seas Mon ngt, subsiding below SCA by Tue morn, then cont`d no hdlns for the remainder of the fcst. Went with about 90 percent blend of WW3/NWPS wv ht guidance for fcst wv hts, compromised of two spectral wv pd groups; a short fetch 6 to 8 sec group and an open Atlc long pd swell group of 12 sec. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
642 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front slowly moving east over eastern WI early this morning. Widespread light rain continues over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore areas ahead of the front, but lightning has been absent for the past several hours across the region and also upstream. Meanwhile, a shortwave is intensifying over the central Plains with another area of rain moving northeast over Iowa and southern Minnesota. Forecast concerns mainly revolve around rain trends along the front, and rain potential tonight ahead of the shortwave. Tonight...Light to moderate rain should be exiting the lakeshore areas late this afternoon or early this evening, resulting in a break in the precip for a time. Then the shortwave over the Plains will be swinging into the region during the evening. High res models are becoming more ambitious with precip returning this evening, thanks to moderate mid-level fgen and moisture convergence arriving just ahead of the shortwave. Mid-level lapse rates and instability are unimpressive tonight, but will keep a slight chance of a thunderstorm given the strength of the shortwave moving through. Some rain my linger though the night over far northern WI though most rain should exit elsewhere through the overnight. Monday...Comma head moisture behind the shortwave will be pivoting across northeast WI during the morning. Otherwise, steep low level lapse rates will develop with the heat of the day. Combined with low convective temps should result in scattered to broken cu formation by late morning. The cu rule is also on board with this scenario. Highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A brief dry period with above normal temperatures will be had Monday night and Tuesday before a low pressure system approaches the region from the west. A cold front will then sweep through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will have instability and shear to work with, especially out west, where MLCAPEs will be 1000 to 1500 J/kg with around 40 knots of bulk shear. Further east these values fall precipitously. There is a chance some of the storms could be strong to severe, especially out west given the instability and shear values, however the timing of the front, later into the evening hours on Tuesday, will not be that favorable for widespread severe weather development over our area. If the timing of the front changes though this could change. High pressure will bring another brief break in precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday along with cooler temperatures. Yet another low pressure system will bring the chance for rain back to the area late in the work week. Next weekend is a bit murky as there are indications another low pressure system could bring additional rain showers to the region by next Sunday. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An upper level disturbance will bring showers and MVFR conditions as it moves across the area overnight. Ceilings and visibilities will improve to VFR by midday Monday as drier air arrives. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
918 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 - Localized heavy rainfall possible through this evening - Rain chances focused on Wednesday and Saturday - Average to above average temperatures much of the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Radar shows one last decent area of rain moving across the west central cwa. That will take a few hours to exit the cwa to the east. Behind that, a few showers are moving northeast over Wisconins. However, latest HRRR shows that more or less diminishing before it moves over the cwa. Not planning on any changes to the forecast tonight and all lake shore headlines will remain in effect. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Our latest thoughts with this rain event are that most locations should not see impactful rain amounts. We are thinking that there will likely be a narrow axis of heavier rainfall that might create some short term minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas. Latest regional radar imagery is not impressive, and a lack of upstream flooding reports corroborates this thinking. The rain over Nrn Illinois and Ern Iowa is associated with a well defined wave centered over Wrn Illinois. This is the rain that is expected to move over most of the area through this evening. It will be a good general soaking for the area. The hi-res models have been indicating a narrow heavier rainfall axis, likely associated with the deformation zone of the wave, that will likely move between I-96 and I-94 this evening. It is in this area that the best potential for some localized flooding. The threat should then end by 06z. Thunder remains possible this evening, however the lack of upstream lightning with this wave so far makes us believe that coverage will be scattered at best. There could be a little uptick in lightning with the system strengthening, and low level jet increasing. With little lightning to start, the severe threat is quite low. A few more showers will be possible with the cold front before daybreak. Clouds will then clear out Monday afternoon. We will see a break from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening as high pressure aloft and at the surface moves through. The next chance of showers and a few storms will arrive early Wednesday morning, and linger through Wednesday evening. This does not look to concerning as it is fairly progressive, and instability is limited. If we are able to destabilize a bit more Wed afternoon ahead of the front, the storm threat may end up a little higher. Again, we will see a brief break in the unsettled weather for Thursday before the next chance for rain starts to move in on Friday. There is good agreement with the front coming in. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty on how quick it moves through. This is actually defendant on the evolution of a western low/trough. One possibility is that deep SW flow becomes established, and the front may linger longer, and we stay wet for next weekend. Another possibility is the upper low closes off over the desert SW, and the system would be more progressive and move out quicker. We will fine tune this as better trends become more clear. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A cold front stretches from Green Bay southwest to NE Missouri. Showers are falling ahead of it and will temporarily reduce vsbys as they move over the TAF sites this evening. After midnight, some MVFR fog is possible and IFR fog is not out of the question. Fog will dissipate by morning as drier air moves in and sfc winds increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 It looks like the Small Craft Advisory is working out nicely, and should hold well through this system. We are currently seeing 25 to 30 knots fairly common along the lakeshore from the SW. Winds will die off a bit as the system approaches, then will increase in the wake of the front as the cold air rushes in. The winds will then diminish Monday night. Our next marine event will come beginning Tuesday night and through Wednesday with the next fairly decent frontal system that will move through. Small Craft Advisories will be likely once again. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2019 Rainfall has already begun to move through lower MI this morning and early afternoon resulting in up to 0.25-1" of rain with the higher totals near and north of I-96. Meanwhile additional rainfall is expected later on this afternoon and evening, leading to rainfall totals up to 1-2 inches, locally up to 3 inches, by Monday morning. This rainfall is expected to cause some rises on rivers, but no rivers are expected to exceed bankfull. The rivers that may approach bankfull are most likely the White and Pere Marquette rivers, where heavy rain from last week has limited how much water the soil is able to absorb. Of greater concern is the potential for localized short-duration flooding of some small streams as well as ponding on roadways at low- spots and in poor drainage areas. The heaviest rain is likely to fall in the communities northwest of a line from South Haven to Saginaw. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall this evening and overnight, and will be moving out of the area by Monday morning. Water on roads at night is much harder to see, so drivers should slow down and pay extra attention. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...04 SYNOPSIS...NJJ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...ANH MARINE...NJJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
907 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .UPDATE... 907 PM CDT The remaining portion of the Flash Flood Watch, which was set to expire at 10 pm CDT, has been canceled. The initial cold front is currently moving across the Chicago metro, and with it is shifting the axis of higher PWAT air to the east of the CWA. The mid-level trough axis, evident on WV satellite across eastern Iowa at 9 pm, will likely bring isolated to scattered light to briefly moderate rain showers across the area late this evening into the overnight hours. While dew points and temps have lowered slightly with the initial surface front, noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive with a secondary front generally along or just ahead of the final batch of showers. Kluber && .SHORT TERM... 330 PM CDT Through Monday night... The flash flood risk continues to sharply drop over the area due to a limited duration of heavier rain. A quicker moving back edge is the primary reason for this, but also less of an overall footprint of the heaviest rain coverage. Have thus moved up the end time of the Flash Flood Watch. Will still be watching for an isolated flash flooding concern, as well as any brief gustier showers mainly along and east of I-55. The MCV embedded within the stronger southwest, moist flow is entering the southwest forecast area and will continue across Chicago through 7-8 p.m. This has been less pronounced with its heavy rain shield than earlier in Missouri, possibly owing to some moisture transport robbing from activity in southern Missouri. There are still pockets of heavier rates, but they are small in coverage and quick moving, with no observations the past 1-2 hours of sites over one half inch in one hour. Thus the flash flood risk seems really limited and the evening shift will likely be able to peel away more of the watch at a quicker rate. The southeast CWA had destabilized earlier based on modified RAP soundings, and despite gradually falling temperatures now, there likely still is some lower rooted CAPE. That should be preserved these next few hours due to dew points inching up and an LFC just off the deck. With slightly backed flow in central Illinois, partly induced by the MCV, there continues the low possibility of a threat of a brief tornado or two in the region (mainly south) given the low-level speed and directional shear. Cells have not shown any behavior as if they are harvesting that thus far. Confidence on this remains very low and likely would only be the eastern/southeastern part of the CWA in the outside chance it materializes. As this main MCV moves away, the area will still remain under broad upper jet forcing for ascent and within the presence of deep moisture for a few hours, but a period of mid-level suppression and lack of focus should keep any showers more scattered mid-evening through early overnight. A cold front will be moving southeastward during that time turning winds northwesterly and gradually ushering in drier air. Wind gusts will be enough over the lake to result in a sufficient onshore component for a heightened rip current risk in northwest Indiana late tonight into Monday. The sky looks sunny on Monday with highs in the 70s. MTF && .LONG TERM... 340 PM CDT Monday Night through Sunday... No major changes made to this period on the day shift. Strong subsidence will continue to overspread the region Monday night and into Tuesday as shortwave ridging (temporarily) builds in overhead. Still think that the potential for fog development looks fairly low even though moisture does look to remain trapped in the lowest 5 kft under the developing inversion. A dense plume of cirrus combined with soundings that show a propensity for things to remain pretty well mixed immediately off the surface should greatly curtail the potential for dense fog. Surface high pressure will slide off to our south and east through the day on Tuesday, allowing southerly return flow to develop back across the region. Moisture looks to remain insufficient to support precipitation chances until later Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next robust shortwave trough pivots across the Upper Midwest (but even then, moisture quality doesn`t look all that impressive). A substantial 130 kt jet streak is expected to nose into parts of Minnesota and southern Wisconsin during this time, which will drive a notable low-level ageostrophic response and ramp up a 50-55 kt low-level jet. While the dynamics with this system will be robust, it looks to come in essentially at the diurnal instability minimum. Forecast soundings look pretty capped to surface-based convection, and it may even be difficult to force elevated convection given a minimal amount of time for more appreciable moisture return. The blended guidance chance pops look reasonable at this point an no notable changes were made. Could get a bit gusty late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon as we tap into a belt of faster flow immediately off the surface. There is the chance for some post-frontal mid-level forcing on Wednesday that could result in mainly just showers for most of the area. Confidence on this is fairly low, but blended PoPs from guidance did provide rain chances. Looks like we`ll get another brief break on Thursday before the next storm system brings a renewed potential for showers and thunderstorms to the region to close out the week and into the upcoming weekend. Certainly looks mild for Friday into the weekend and according to the GFS and EC into the first days of October. Carlaw/MTF && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... 632 PM...The back edge of the rain continues to slowly move east across north central IL early this evening with a band of heavy rain from arr/dpa/pwk that will affect ord over the next hour or so. Vis under 1sm and ifr cigs are likely with this band of rain. This should all shift east of the Chicago terminals by mid evening with just isolated showers possible through the early overnight hours. Coverage with these showers looks fairly low so just vicinity mention for now. Outside of heavy rain/possible ifr cigs...prevailing mvfr cigs in the 1-2kft range look on track through early morning...clearing from west to east. Southerly winds have diminished with speeds under 10kts. Still some gust potential with the heavier showers. Winds will then shift more southwest or west as a trough moves across the area this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest early in the morning as a cold front moves across the area. Winds will remain northwest Monday with some gusts to 20kts possible through sunset Monday evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ002...3 AM Monday to 4 PM Monday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 10 PM Sunday. Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 4 PM Monday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Short term concern is extent of light showers moving across the southeast CWA into the evening. Latest radar showing some light showers beginning to pivot northward across south central MN along the MN River Valley. Water vapor imagery showing upper trough beginning to move into western MN with vorticity extension/PIVA moving into southwest MN at this time. Moisture was scoured some with early showers exiting to the east, but there may be enough forcing to continue to lift the showers across at least a portion of east central MN late afternoon/early evening. The latest HRRR has begun to trend that way. As the upper low continues to move east overnight, expect clouds to thin some from the west and showers to end into west central WI shortly after 06z Mon. Monday looks to be mainly sunny with temperatures moderating again with 70s common once again. Some high clouds may stream in later Monday night from the west, but dry conditions should continue. Lows Monday night should range in the low to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The weather pattern will remain fairly active through at least next week. Several storm systems will bring rain and thunderstorms. In particular, there is a chance for severe storms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. On Tuesday morning a very strong upper level will cross the northern Rockies and race towards the upper Midwest. This will drive a cold front through the region Tuesday afternoon. Surface temperatures should warm into the lower 80s ahead of this cold front, and dewpoints will climb into the mid 60s. 500mb height falls together with low level convergence along the aforementioned cold front should lead to convection by the late afternoon across western Minnesota. These storms will quickly move eastward across the rest of the region Tuesday evening. Damaging wind will probably be the main threat with these storms since they will be fast moving, and there will be large scale synoptic forcing for ascent. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a slight risk across much of the forecast area. The cold front will push well south of the region on Wednesday, and cold air advection will keep the boundary layer mixed and wind gusts near 30 mph Wednesday afternoon. Increased the forecast wind speeds to better align with the forecast soundings. Surface high pressure will build in Wednesday night, but another system will follow quickly on its heels and bring return flow and moisture up from the south on Thursday into Friday. This will set the stage for another round of thunderstorms with heavy rain as the primary threat. Looking ahead, the pattern repeats itself again Saturday and Sunday, and this could continue into early October. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Improving conditions will be the story of these TAFs. Only site with any lingering -SHRA at initialization will be KEAU while all other TAF sites will be dry. The precip will be out of the KEAU area by about 03z and will join the remaining TAF sites with clearing skies thru the overnight hours with little if any high clouds tomorrow. W winds 5-10 kts will back to SW by tomorrow and remain in the 5-10 kt range. KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue...Mainly VFR. Chance evening MVFR/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. Gusts 25-30 kts. Thu...Mainly VFR. Chance evening MVFR/SHRA. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...JPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
905 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Skies remain mostly clear this hour, despite a cold front approaching Middle Tennessee from the northwest. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows a dry, stable atmosphere still in place, which doesn`t portend well for our rain chances later on. Expect clouds to start increasing during the next few hours, and the latest HRRR does show a few light echoes sneaking into the Land-between- the-Lakes region prior to 12Z. So we`ll keep the low chance POP`s for late tonight. The actual frontal boundary will begin edging into Middle Tennessee shortly after 12Z. The current forecast seems to be in good shape for now, so no changes are planned at this time. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions overnight will give way to chances for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm during the day tomorrow. Cigs/vis may become MVFR or less should any heavy showers impact terminals. Have in best timing with current CAM consensus for each terminal, starting as early as 14Z for KCKV and as late as 19Z for KCSV. Rain chances should diminish from northwest to southeast during the late morning through the afternoon. Winds will be southwesterly overnight into mid morning, then becoming more westerly around 5 to 10 knots late morning/early afternoon, and northwesterly around 5 to 10 knots by the end of the TAF period. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......08 AVIATION........Barnwell