Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/22/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
551 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Precipitation is starting to develop near the northern border, a
bit further north and an hour or two faster than expected. It
looks like the focus should be northeast of Denver for about the
next six hours. It should all still be virga, but should be broad
enough for long enough to get some rain to the ground. We`re
making a minor update for higher PoPs on the northeast plains and
less further south. Also, the odds of thunder are looking pretty
low as CAPEs are only about 200 J/kg ahead of the wind shift and
the only lightning strikes in the cool air are associated with
much cooler air aloft over northern Wyoming. Left a slight chance
of thunder this evening but that`s probably a stretch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Jet related forcing is progressing east into Colorado while the
winds in Wyoming have been slow to turn northerly. Hence the
cooler, moister air looks like it will be late to arrive this
evening. The interaction between these two will likely be over
northeastern Colorado and areas a bit north and east from there,
in the evening hours and most likely mid to late evening. There`s
still a chance of something in Denver that would most likely have
to back in here from the northeast. The HRRR is still trying to do
this but doesn`t quite bring the rain into Denver, and the larger
scale models are similar. The current forecast is focused in the
right place so we`re just making some timing adjustments with an
emphasis on mid to late evening. The forcing is mostly aloft and
low levels aren`t very moist, so any rain amounts should be light.
For Sunday, drier and warmer air aloft with subsidence will move
in early. Can`t rule out a few cumulus over the mountains, but it
should be nearly clear. Warming at the surface will lag the air
aloft, but it should recover to be at least as warm as it is
today, with warmer highs likely over the mountains. It will be
breezy in the mountains in the afternoon with low humidities, but
not quite meeting Red Flag criteria.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Corrected typos.
Models have upper ridging over the CWA Sunday night, then strong
southwesterly flow aloft is progged Monday and Monday evening. A
weak upper trough is progged to move in and across the CWA early
Tuesday morning. By midday Tuesday, through the afternoon,
northwesterly flow aloft moves in and continues overnight. The QG
Omega fields have weak downward synoptic scale energy over the area
Sunday night. Weak upward energy is in place Monday and Monday
evening. Back to weak downward energy is in place Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. The low level winds look to be normal drainage
patterns Sunday night, east and southeasterlies Monday, downsloping
northwesterlies Monday night, variable and weak flow Tuesday, then a
cold front and upslope Tuesday night late. For moisture, it is
pretty dry Sunday night through Tuesday night. Through those five
periods, precipitable water proggs show values in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range. There is nothing in the way of any measurable
precipitation on the QPF fields through Tuesday night. Will leave
pops out through Tuesday night. For temperatures, Monday`s highs are
1.5-4.0 C higher than Sunday`s. Tuesday`s highs are 0-2 C warmer
than Monday`s. For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday,
models have west and southwesterly flow aloft through Thursday
evening. Then a weak upper trough moves across into Friday morning.
Then southwesterly flow aloft returns through Saturday. Moisture
increases a bit from Thursday onward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. There will be scattered
showers northeast of Denver through about 06z, with just some
virga or sprinkles in the Denver area. Ceilings may lower enough
to require instrument approaches to KDEN at times between 03z and
08z. Ceilings will dissipate by 12z Sunday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
642 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Sent update to issue Freeze Warnings for the Upper North Platte
River basin, including Saratoga, and southwestern Carbon county.
High clouds are either pushing to the east or will over the next
several hours. With pretty light winds, clearing skies, and low
dewpoints, expect these areas to drop below freezing tonight.
Further east, cloud cover will struggle to push east of the
Laramie Valley as an upper level trough axis takes it time to
eject. The Laramie Valley should get pretty cool tonight, so
decided to issue a Frost Advisory for that area starting at 300
AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening & overnight)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
We have two main near-term concerns during the evening & overnight
hours across the region. A Freeze Watch is in effect for mountains
and high valleys across southern Carbon & Albany counties for late
tonight and early Sunday. A rather potent mid-level disturbance is
progged to sweep across the region tonight, bringing the potential
for considerable mid/high level cloud cover which could impact our
low temperature readings. It should still get quite cold with lows
in the mid 30s, but confidence in a hard freeze is not high enough
to warrant an upgrade to a Warning at this time. Further east, the
potential for showers & thunderstorms will likely increase tonight
for our southeastern zones, roughly along/southeast of a line from
Cheyenne to Alliance. The air mass across the region remains quite
dry. However, moisture advection is already being evidenced by the
robust increase in cloud cover upstream over Colorado. Models show
excellent low-level frontogenesis and thermal advection over these
areas, and the HRRR has remained very consistent w/a strong signal
for a heavier SW-NE oriented precipitation band between 3-9z. This
seems to make sense with locally induced cyclogenesis taking place
in the Chugwater area later this evening. It would not be all that
surprising to see some sort of MCV take shape, so we opted to bump
up PoPs into the likely category. Thunderstorms will gradually end
after 09z.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday - Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Warming trend expected to commence Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
accompanied with dry conditions. Another cold front appears possible
mid-week but overall precipitation chances appear low at this
time as temperatures return back to normal values.
With the departing trough by Sunday to be quickly followed by a
shortwave ridge pattern, WAA will commence quickly after the cold
Sunday morning start. A return to dry, west winds will allow for
fire danger to increase, especially on Monday. Warmth continues in
Tuesday with values 4-7F degrees above normal. A broad longwave
trough should shift across the northern CONUS mid-week per multi-
model ensemble guidance and bring a cold front through the region.
However, given the low amplitude and limited moisture, overall
rain chances appear low at this time. After a quick cool down
Wednesday, a quick warm up may occur late week depending on
overall pattern evolution of a once cut-off low ejecting northeast
and bringing WAA in the southwest flow. For late week into next
weekend, SE WY and west NE may be just too far east of a large
trough along the entire west coast for possible sensible weather
impacts. Stay tuned on the development of this trough as it
evolves over the next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Most of the gusty winds have begun calming down at area terminals
and will continue to do so early this evening as VFR conditions
prevail. Rain showers have begun developing between KCYS and KSNY
and will continue to expand possibly reaching KBFF and KAIA. These
showers will last past midnight for the eastern most terminals and
could bring ceilings down to 5 kft, especially at KSNY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Lower fire weather risks today with cooler temperatures and slightly
greater moisture in place. However, winds will remain elevated across
the high terrain at 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Lower humidity
values will return Sunday through Tuesday as temperatures slowly warm.
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions return during this
period and can not fully rule out localized Red Flag conditions early
next week across southeast Wyoming, especially Monday afternoon.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
WYZ111-113.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ115.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
843 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.UPDATE...
The forecast is still on track this evening, and only minor
adjustments were needed to capture ongoing trends. Have omitted
all mentions of thunder through the overnight hours, as any
activity that would encroach on our northwestern zones later
tonight would likely consist of decaying rain showers at most.
Most of this activity will remain well north and west of the
forecast area. Dry and tranquil weather is expected for the
majority of the CWA, with lows falling into the low/mid 70s.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
/00Z TAFs/
Most of the afternoon convection that developed across Central
Texas has now dissipated as peak daytime heating has come to end.
An upper level disturbance currently across West Texas and New
Mexico is providing enough lift for showers and thunderstorms well
west of the North and Central Texas airports. This activity is not
expected to impact any of the terminals tonight. The main concern
overnight will be northward surge of stratus clouds that will
lead to MVFR at most area airports. Although IFR is possible
across Central Texas, the probability remains fairly low and will
not add it at this time to KACT.
All MVFR will gradually begin to mix out by mid morning, leaving
behind southerly winds at around 15 kts. A few showers and storms
will once again be possible across western portions of North
Texas and may potentially impact the Bowie cornerpost in the
afternoon, but impacts are expected to remain fairly minimal.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
/Sunday Night through Saturday/
By Sunday evening a quasi-stationary frontal boundary should be
draped across parts of central and southern Oklahoma. In the
vicinity of this boundary will be a pool of deep moisture content
with PWs in excess of 2". A broad area of low level convergence
will be present along with strengthening westerlies aloft. A
focused area of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday
evening across our far northern and northwestern counties into
southern Oklahoma. This area will remain the favored area of rain
chances through the upcoming week.
On Monday, a digging trough over the southwestern U.S. will become
increasingly cut off from the polar jet stream and should set up
shop somewhere over Arizona late Monday night. Meanwhile, across
North Texas, we`ll remain within an established southerly flow
regime through 700 mb. The remnant frontal boundary will still be
to our north and will serve as a focus for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms mainly across southern Oklahoma. Some of these may
impact areas along and north of I-20 through the afternoon.
On Tuesday, the upper trough to the west should remain parked
across southern Arizona, although a weaker mid and upper level
trough between 500-300 mb will spread northward along the Texas
coast. This should place most of the Southern Plains within a
region of modest height falls through the afternoon hours. With
the pool of higher moisture still draped across the Red River, we
should see at least decent coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Similar to Monday, coverage will be highest north
of I-20.
Guidance is in fair agreement through the end of the week with the
handling of the upper trough to the west, although there are some
timing and track differences. Despite this, most of the stronger
forcing for ascent should pass well to our north through Friday.
With persistent moist southerly flow, we`ll maintain some low PoPs
areawide Wednesday through Friday.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
/Through Sunday/
Deep southerly flow across North and Central Texas continues to
import Gulf moisture into the region, leading to another
unseasonably hot and humid day. Temperatures are already in the
mid 80s, and should have little difficulty making it into the low
to mid 90s this afternoon. Little in the way of convection is
expected today as upper-level ascent stays off to our west and
northwest.
Tonight, another surge of Gulf stratus can be expected across
North and Central Texas, with cloudy skies likely by sunrise. This
cloud cover, along with continued warm air advection, will lead to
a warm and humid night.
For Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over western
North Texas and western Oklahoma around daybreak. These
thunderstorms will likely work their way towards our northwestern
counties by afternoon. Right now, will only show chance PoPs
(30-50%) as there are some concerns about coverage. Depending on
which CAM you look at, it could be anywhere from a solid line of
convection to a broken line of widely scattered cells. If later
CAM runs begin converging around a solution showing a solid line,
PoPs will certainly need to be increased, and perhaps increased a
bit farther east as well. For this forecast, will keep PoPs below
15% for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. It is worth
mentioning however that a few models do show some isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms in the DFW area late Sunday
afternoon. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should check back
with later forecasts.
Forecast soundings from the HRRR in the vicinity of model
forecasted convection show large surface temperature/dewpoint
spreads and inverted-V profiles. Downdraft CAPE approaching 1,000
J/kg and steep 0-3 km lapse rates of nearly 9 C/km would allow for
efficient evaporative cooling within the precipitation core of
thunderstorms, leading to gusty outflow winds. The severe weather
threat is low overall, but some thunderstorms will be capable of
producing wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Cloud-to-ground
lightning will be a threat with all thunderstorms. In terms of
heavy rainfall potential, precipitable water values have come down
from their levels a few days ago, but will remain above the
climatological 90th percentile value for late September. Combined
with deep warm cloud layer, thunderstorms will be efficient
rainfall producers, but unless storms remain over an area for an
extended period of time, flash flooding will likely not be a
significant concern.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 75 90 75 / 0 10 20 30 20
Waco 74 96 73 94 73 / 0 5 5 10 10
Paris 72 89 72 87 71 / 0 20 30 40 30
Denton 74 91 74 88 73 / 0 10 30 30 30
McKinney 74 92 74 89 73 / 0 10 30 30 30
Dallas 76 92 76 91 75 / 0 5 20 30 20
Terrell 74 92 74 91 74 / 0 10 20 20 20
Corsicana 73 92 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 20 10
Temple 73 94 72 93 72 / 0 10 5 10 10
Mineral Wells 72 90 71 89 71 / 0 10 30 30 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
26/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
...Short Term and Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
The cold front is a just a bit farther northwest than previously
expected. Therefore the severe thunderstorm watch runs from Rooks
County Kansas up through Filmore county in Nebraska. Still expect
hail and wind gusts to be the main threats through around
midnight.
Also, I significantly increased PoPs after midnight as the HRRR
shows fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms over most of the
forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Our biggest weather concerns are in the short term period with a
brief window for possibly a few severe thunderstorms prior to the
cold front exiting our area to the south. At 315 PM CDT the cold
front was located along a line from around Hebron, to Mankato, to
Osborne and tracking southeast. Thunderstorms will likely form
along this front between 530 and 800 PM when the front should be
located near Beloit by that point in time. Deep layer wind shear
values around 40 kts with sfc based CAPE values of over 3000 J/KG
will support severe thunderstorm development along the cold front,
which will act as a forcing mechanism. However, these storms
along the cold front will quickly exit our forecast area to the
southeast.
Late evening and tonight.
Additional elevated thunderstorms will develop north of the cold
front late this evening generally after 9 or 10 pm and greatly
expand northward after midnight. However, these later
thunderstorms north of the boundary will have less instability to
work with and should generally not be severe although there could
be a few strong thunderstorms just north of the front over
northern Kansas for at time this evening. Again the main threat
for severe thunderstorms will those thunderstorms that form right
along the cold front boundary this evening. The general
thunderstorms that will expand north through the area late tonight
will likely be the most numerous along and south of I-80.
Sunday...
Thunderstorms will likely linger into Sunday morning, possibly
through mid to late morning across eastern zones. However, the
afternoon should be dry across the area with the storm system
departing our area. It will be a much cooler day behind the cool
front with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
We expect an upper low to cut off and hang out over the desert
southwest for few days before ejecting into the plains by late
week (Friday) with poor confidence on how this upper low will
track into the central plains. Overall rain chances this week are
currently low at best. We do expect a significant trough to
develop over the western United States by next weekend, but that
trough could get hung up over the west due to a strong ridge
across the southeastern portion of the country. Consequently,
confidence in precipitation chances as we head into next weekend
is also rather low. Overall temperatures should range from the 70s
to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
The cold front is well south of the terminals, but scattered
thunderstorms are still expected to move into the terminal
vicinity in the 06-15Z timeframe. These storms should be non-
severe at this point.
Winds will remain north to northwesterly through the TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1038 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a very
moist airmass surging northeast across Wisconsin ahead of a cold
front pushing east over Minnesota. Despite most unstable capes
upwards of 600 j/kg across the area, widespread low clouds
continue to shift northeast over northeast WI thereby limiting the
amount of instability that can develop. Some showers and drizzle are
developing over the area early this afternoon, but the area has
been thunderstorm free so far. The best severe weather parameters
reside over far western WI and Minnesota closer to the front. But
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and short range models
indicate at least isolated coverage for the rest of the afternoon.
A strong storm is possible, particularly over north-central WI
towards late afternoon. Forecast concerns revolve around precip
trends and potential for strong or severe storms.
Tonight...The cold front will slowly move east tonight and
approach northeast WI by 12z Sunday. Thunderstorms will be
possible ahead of the front as severe weather parameters peak over
north-central WI during the evening. Most unstable capes up to
1500 j/kg and effective shear around 30 kts may result in strong
or isolated severe storms over that area. HREF max reflectivity
paintball suggest the highest potential for strong storms will
occur during the 8 pm to midnight time period. With pwats upwards
of 1.80 inches, strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the
primary threats in the strongest of storms. Though the potential
for storms will diminish early overnight, spotty showers and
drizzle will be possible until the front clears. Since a
warm/humid airmass will be in place for the most of the night,
temps will remain summer-like, and range from near 60 in the north
to the upper 60s over the Fox Valley.
Sunday...The front will remain over eastern WI for most of the
day, which will lead to on and off showers at times. A
strengthening shortwave will then move into the northern
Mississippi Valley in the afternoon, at the same time as a wave of
low pressure slides into northern Illinois. Rainfall is expected
to return north on the northern flank of this low generally from
mid to late afternoon. So will show increasing rain chances during
this time, highest across east-central WI. Temps are not expected
to rise much due to the clouds and rain.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Sunday night...surface trough/cold front will complete its passage
across the area by early Sunday evening, with the upper trough
digging across the Great Lakes. Precip associated with the surface
features look to be pushing east of the area by mid-evening, but
increasing lift and forcing from the deep upper trough will
continue showers through much of the night. Prospects for thunder
are looking low as instability is almost nil but can`t rule out
some isolated rumbles of thunder. Patchy fog will be possible,
especially if clearing takes place before sunrise, but winds in
the boundary layer look to remain above 5-10 mph and should keep
things mixed up enough to limit fog potential. Temps will be
cooler than previous nights as cold air advection begins. Lows
look to drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s. The muggy
conditions will also come to an end through the night.
Monday and Monday night...cyclonic flow and the departing upper
trough could linger a shower or two, mainly across northern WI in
the morning, but the majority of the day/area looks to stay dry as
drier air advects into the area. Dry weather is expected Monday
night as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds into
the western Great Lakes. Light winds and clear skies will likely
lead to some fog development. Temps look to be near normal.
Tuesday into Wednesday...dry conditions will prevail for most of
Tuesday as ridging slides east of the area. Return flow and strong
warm air advection will ramp up ahead of an approaching cold
front. Strong cold front will swing across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Timing not favorable for severe weather,
but instability and bulk shear values of 40+ kts could lead to
some stronger storms. PWATS climb to near 1.5" so heavy rain will
be possible, but flooding issues should be minimized by the
progressive nature of the system. Will continue chance POPs into
Wednesday to both cover if the system slows down and for any
lingering post-frontal/cyclonic flow showers.
Rest of the forecast...dry weather returns Wednesday night into
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Another system
will impact the area later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
A cold front will produce showers and scattered thunderstorms
as it moves slowly across the area overnight. The front is expected
to stall across southern Wisconsin on Sunday. Flight conditions could
improve to VFR for awhile Sunday especially west of an IMT to STE, while
further east MVFR conditions and showers will prevail.
Showers and lower ceilings will return to most of the area Sunday
evening as low pressure moves northeast along the front to our
south.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ022-040-050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
711 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Quick update for cancellation of the Red Flag Warning for the San
Luis Valley. Incorporated latest obs data, and rest of the gridded
database looks good at this time. As a side note, looks like the
HRRR nailed the timing, location and movement of the isolated
convection across the plains this evening. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Critical fire weather conditions continue until around 8PM over the
San Luis Valley this evening and near critical fire weather
conditions will remain over the upper Arkansas River Valley, the
mountains, and southern I-25 corridor until around sunset.
Conditions are expected to remain dry throughout the evening hours
for the region. By around 2200 MDT this evening a cold front will
make its way into northern El Paso County and will spread south-
southeasterly, arriving to the New Mexico border by around 0300 to
0400 MDT tomorrow morning. Behind the cold front over El Paso
County there is the possibility for scattered showers during the
overnight hours. According to thermodynamic soundings the lowest
100 mb is still fairly dry, making it difficult for rain to make
it to the ground. What there is high certainty of is a low cloud
deck forming behind front, spreading across the plains.
As the trough axis aloft propagates across Colorado, dry air will be
associated with it. The dry air will plummet temperatures overnight
over the mountains and mountain valleys. Places like Creede will be
in the mid 20s, the San Luis Valley will be in the upper 20s, and
Leadville is expected to be in the mid 20s. The cold temperatures
will prompt a freeze warning over the San Luis Valley from 0400-0800
MDT on Sunday morning. Crops are at risk for impact. Outside of the
reaches of the valley floor, near the mountains, temperatures will
still be near freezing and likely won`t see a hard freeze, but there
is confidence over the valley floor. Over the plains the low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s and the teens to 20s
over the mountains.
Tomorrow afternoon will be much cooler and will actually be average
for this time of year over the region. Expect high temperatures over
the plains to be in the upper 70s, the mountain valleys in the low
70s, and the mountains to be in the 40s to 50s. Over the southern
reaches of the San Luis Valley will be near critical fire weather
conditions, but fire weather conditions will not be met.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Beautiful fall weather is expected for much of the week ahead with
temperatures remaining above normal east of the mountains and around
normal for the higher elevations. The southern mountains will have
the best chance for precipitation while dry weather continues on the
plains.
From Sunday night into Monday, a transient upper level ridge moves
across the state with dry and mild temperatures. An upper level trof
moves across the Great Basin with an upper low cutting off over
southern California. The northern stream energy stays well to the
north of Colorado with only a weak frontal boundary moving through
the eastern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Could see a few
showers or thunderstorms in the San Juans during this period, but
most areas will remain dry. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday on
the plains will be in the 80s with 70s in the higher valleys, and
50s and 60s in the mountains. With the weak front moving through the
plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler on the plains Wednesday.
On Thursday, the closed upper low lifts northeastward with a strong
low pressure system moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest. The
open wave moves across southeast Colorado on Friday. Precipitation
chances increase along and west of the mountains on Thursday. High
temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
on the plains Thursday and Friday, upper 60s in the higher valleys
and 40s and 50s in the mountains. Could see some scattered snow
showers in the higher elevations as well.
The trof remains over the western portion of the U.S. with an
amplifying ridge over the eastern half of the country. We remain in
southwest flow aloft Friday night through Saturday. This keeps much
of south central and southeast Colorado dry and warm. Highs will top
out from 80 to 90 on the plains, lower 70s in the high valleys, and
50s and 60s in the mountains.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
VFR conditions are anticipated for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout
the next 24 hours. Some showers will develop in the vicinity of KCOS
during the overnight as a front passes by, but the most likely
outcome will be low ceilings, which will also impact KPUB. At this
point in time, flight categories are expected to remain VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...SKELLY