Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/19/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

807 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to the forecast east of a
line from Santa Rosa to Ruidoso (south of I-40) through late evening.
Isolated cells popped up during the early evening. The Canadian and
HRRR models picked up on this. With a moist, south southeasterly,
low-level return flow developing, there is a chance that a cell or
two could linger over the southeast into the late night hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger into the early evening
over the southeast plains. A moist, south and southeasterly return
flow of low-level moisture will then develop across the far eastern
plains tonight. Areas of low clouds may produce MVFR conditions along
the eastern border of NM south of the Caprock late tonight into
early Thursday morning. These clouds may reach as far west as the
Pecos River Valley including Roswell. Thursday afternoon and evening
an upper level low pressure system will interact with the improving
moisture over NM to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most
of this activity will move toward the north and northeast at speeds
from 15 to 30 kt. Clusters and lines of storms may be difficult to
circumnavigate in some areas.

.PREV DISCUSSION...412 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly quiet conditions are expected over northern and central New
Mexico tonight with a few stray thunderstorms possible early this
evening from Quay to eastern Chaves counties. Overnight lows should
be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Increasing moisture will result in
more showers and thunderstorms across the entire region on Thursday.
This will be relatively short-lived across the west and north as a
drier air mass returns for Friday. For Friday through the weekend,
the best chances for precipitation will be focused in south central
and southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, strong or severe storms cannot
be ruled out each afternoon from Thursday through Saturday near the
Texas border. Early next week may turn interesting as a wetter and
cooler pattern could evolve across the Land of Enchantment. It is
too early to pinpoint details at this time given high variability
in model solutions.

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite and radar imagery indicates a few storms developed
across the southeast quadrant of the CWA where 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE
is noted. 12Z HREF seems to be capturing the situation fairly well...
and will maintain isolated storms throughout Quay to eastern Chaves
counties through sunset with activity diminishing thereafter. GFS +
NAM suggest some activity could linger tonight in Lea County, so may
need to monitor to ensure PoPs do not need to be extended northward
and beyond sunset.

Pattern change is forthcoming on Thursday as flow backs more toward
the southwest. Forecast soundings depict decent moisture advection,
especially at the mid/upper levels, with PWATs approaching 1.50" for
the east central and southeast plains. As a result, storms over wrn
NM should be wetter in nature with locally heavy rains possible for
the eastern plains. A mitigating factor may be the quicker movement
of storms. A strong/severe pulse storm cannot be ruled out along the
TX border, with the marginal degree of buoyancy potentially keeping
things in check.

Drier air starts to invade western NM for Thu night, shutting down
precipitation chances in this region. Meanwhile, showers/storms will
persist in northern and eastern NM. The upper low will open up/eject
northeast from the northern Great Basin to south central Canada for
Friday. As a result, drier air will continue to shift eastward, but
will not completely clear the CWA. Meanwhile, there may be a greater
threat for severe storms near the TX border as buoyancy and shear is
forecast to be a tad stronger. Tropical moisture associated with TC
Lorena could remain in play across the south central and southeast
zones for Saturday and maybe Sunday. In fact, the SREF suggests the
southeast plains may be at risk for strong/severe storms during peak
heating.

Models remain in strong agreement that upr level energy will quickly
dive south from the PacNW to the Great Basin, eventually closing off
a low early next week. Beyond that, the finer details are incredibly
sketchy as deterministic models vary significantly on its trajectory
and strength. The NBM guidance has a wetter/cooler regime throughout
NM, and see no reason to deviate until a clearer picture comes forth.
DPorter

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions with only isolated storms expected over
the southeastern plains today. More moisture will be drawn into NM
Thu with increasing southwest winds producing scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over much of the area. Storms will favor the high
terrain over central and western NM before quickly moving
northeastward, while storms across the eastern plains will be strong
and wetter. Drier air punches into western NM Fri/Sat limiting
wetting storms to the eastern plains, mainly along and south of I-
40. Max ventilation increases through Sat with widespread excellent
Fri. The drier conditions and increasing winds over the west will
allow for some elevated and perhaps even isolated critical fire
weather conditions near the Four Corners (Northwest Plateau) Friday
afternoon. Ventilation trends down Sun with most areas dry and only
a chance for afternoon storms hugging the southern edge of the
forecast area. Major changes are on the horizon for early next week,
however forecast confidence is rather low concerning the details of
a strong storm system moving through the western CONUS. 24/RJH

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Deep low pressure moving east across southern Canada will push a
cold front into the area this evening. This is expected to fire a
band of showers and storms across northwest WI by early this
evening, then expanding along the front pushes farther southward
into the area (per latest CAMs). Better moisture transport is
directed from west central into northern WI this evening but
convergence along the front should be sufficient to maintain
showers and storms across our forecast area. Latest RAP/NAM produce
MUCAPE in the 1.5-3.0kJ/kg ranges with 0-3km bulk shear around 25kt.
So, will have to keep any eye out for a few stronger storms with
gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Another concern will be
heavier rainfall with storms as precipitable water values hover in
the 1.5-2 inch range. Thankfully latest CAMs showing fairly
transitory nature to the front and storms. However, will keep a
close eye on how rainfall evolves and be ready for short-fused
Flash Flood Watch if conditions warrant. This would be mainly across
those areas thats were impacted across northeast IA into far
southwest WI.

Frontal boundary hangs up across the area Thursday with isolated-
scattered showers and storms likely to bubble up during the heating
of the day. Bulk shear rather weak with RAP depicting MUCAPE
increasing into the 1.5-3.0kJ/KG during the afternoon mainly south
of I-90 with ambient precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. So,
main concern will be pockets of heavy rainfall with the storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The big picture for the end of the week and into the weekend will be
focused on periods of showers and storms as well as chances for
heavy rainfall. Showers and some storms may linger into Thursday
night as the stalled cold front slowly pushes further east. Warm air
advection ahead of an upper trough over the western CONUS may result in scattered showers and storms on Friday as moisture spreads north into the area. Not much in the way of organized convection as bulk shear looks to be minimal, but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible with warm cloud depths and climatologically higher PWATs around 1.5 inches.

The upper trough lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest from late
Friday into early Saturday, bringing what looks like two waves of
showers and storms to the area. The first looks to be from overnight
Friday into the morning hours of Saturday as warm air advection and
moisture transport increases overhead. Instability should be
limited during this time, but locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with 3-4 km warm cloud depths and PWATs of 1.5 to 2.0
inches. Depending exactly how the morning wave pans out and how
quickly it moves through, a second round of showers and storms
along a cold front could pack more of a punch Saturday
afternoon/evening. CAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk shear of
35-45 kts, could support some stronger storm development, with the
threat of additional heavy rainfall. Showers and storms may
continue into the overnight hours of Saturday/early Sunday as the
front exits. Will have to watch this system and fine tune details
in the coming days.

Once the front moves through, high pressure builds in behind it and
looks to bring seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and drier
conditions for the beginning of next week. Then the next chance of
precipitation then looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as the next
system moves through.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A front stretching from south-central MN into northwest WI will
slowly sag through the area overnight, becoming the focus for
showers and thunderstorms. Models have trended to a later onset
for the bulk of the activity, now suggesting storms may not get
going in earnest until after 08Z. Activity would then continue
into Thursday morning, but mostly clearing the TAF sites by around
14Z. Still expect conditions within thunderstorms to deteriorate
to MVFR and perhaps IFR as locally heavy rainfall will be likely.
Isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two will be possible
during the day Thursday. Lingering abundant moisture in the low
levels is expected to translate into MVFR to IFR ceilings through
much of the day on Thursday, though confidence remains fairly low
in how long this would persist and how low ceilings would drop.
Current expectation is for ceilings to rise slightly through the
day, becoming high-end MVFR by evening.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday
morning for WIZ053>055-061.

MN...None.
IA...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday
morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...Batzek
AVIATION...Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

724 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Aloft: RAP tropopause analyses and aircraft wind data depict weak
SW flow over the Plns with a longwave ridge from the Wrn Gulf to
Hudson Bay. A deep/digging trof was along the E coast. Wk SW flow
will remain over NEB/KS thru tomorrow as the Wrn trof moves
inland. By 00Z/Fri it will extend from ID-NV.

Surface: 997 mb low pres was along the MB-ONT border with a wk
cool front extending SW acrs Ern NEB to SW KS. This front bisects
the CWA and has become stationary from near Phillipsburg KS-Clay
Ctr-McCool Junction. Small wk high pres was over the Black Hills.
This front will remain stationary thru tonight. An MCS is fcst to
dvlp over Ern NEB or IA and it could send an outflow boundary
into the CWA. The front is fcst to lift N out of the area into Nrn
NEB tomorrow...putting the CWA back into the warm sector...but
the potential outflow boundary could be a complicating factor.

Rest of this afternoon: variable between mostly sunny and partly
cldy. There is a drastic diff in dwpts across the front and mdls
are not handling this well at all. Used RAP mdl but had to
manually shift everything SE to better match the location of the
front. This will need to be something to monitor in short-term
fcst updates thru this eve.

Can`t rule out an isold tstm dvlpg along and SE of the front...
where CIN is weakest...but there no help aloft.

Tonight: Mostly clr to partly cldy. Can`t rule out an isold shwr
or tstm. An MCS is fcst to dvlp from Ern NEB into IA. This could
send an outflow boundary into the CWA late. If the mdls are right
...it probably won`t trigger any shwrs/tstms. But the NAM nest and
NMM do dvlp tstms btwn JYR-HJH. Even if that does not occur...am
concerned the outflow boundary could also result in formation of
low stratus...espcly an aviation concern.

Thu: Mostly clr to partly cldy. Can`t rule out some tstms E of Hwy
281 in the morning. The areas that cooled down today will warm
right back up with mid 80s-low 90s from the Tri-Cities S and W.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Aloft: The last 3 runs of the GFS-FV3/EC/CMC/UKMET all maintain
SW flow over the Plns thru Sat. The deep Wrn trof will deamplify
and lift into the Nrn Plns Sat. The tail end of this trof is fcst
to cross NEB/KS Sun. A shrtwv ridge will arrive Mon. Upstream...
another moderately trof is fcst to move into the Wrn USA. The mdls
suggest a cut-off low will form over the Desert SW Mon-Wed...with
low-amplitude cyclonic WNW flow dvlpg acrs the Nrn USA.

Surface: The next cool front that will move thru NEB/KS was
already over the Wrn USA. The CWA will remain in the warm sector
Fri with this front moving thru Fri night or Sat AM. High pres
will briefly build in Sat. The 00Z EC ens mean suggests we need to
watch for a sfc low to form along the front over KS Sat night.
This would encourage MCS dvlpmt. The next low fcst to move into
Wrn Canada will induce warm frontogenesis from MT-NEB Sun. The
associated cool front is fcst to weaken and cross NEB/KS as a trof
Tue. A stronger cool front is slated to move thru Wed.

Temps: Thankfully...the recent summer heat that belongs in July
and not Sep will finally be gone. This fcstr hopes that`s it for
this year. Temps will still average just a fuzz above normal...but
we will see more 70s and low 80s for highs...and lows in the 50s.

Looking beyond Wed 9/25...ensembles from multiple natl centers
suggest the MJO will head into phases 8 and 1. Those phases
typically result in cooler than average temps. That should mean we
will enjoy some nice fall wx instead of summer in Sep.

Rain: While the fcst has a chance of tstms every day...am not
impressed with overall chances for rain. While the chances of rain
are not zero...believe the fcst is overdone with the mention of
shwrs/tstms. The pattern just doesn`t look that favorable.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

FCST challenge for tonight is whether some MVFR/IFR stratus moves
in tomorrow morning. A few of the models hinting at it. GRI is
more likely of the two sites to see stratus move in tomorrow
morning. Continued with the FEW006 as a hedge for now. If any
ceilings do move in, they should scatter out by mid-morning.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Beda

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

742 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough
through the Pacific Northwest and a ridge from the lower Mississipi
Valley into the central Great Lakes resulting in sw flow toward
Upper Michigan. A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast Manitoba
was lifting to the northeast dragging a cold front into northwest
MN. The band of shra/tsra from earlier today had dissipated leaving
a band of mid/high clouds over western Upper Michigan. Additional
light showers were developing over northeast MN in an area of
moderate 700-500 qvector conv and 850-700 fgen. Otherwise, breezy
southerly winds have pushed temps again to around 80 with dewpoints
into the lower 60s.

Tonight, although the strongest forcing with the shrtwv will remain
to the north strong 925-850 mb moisture transport/conv associated
with the strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet will support sct
shra/tsra development into Upper Michigan late this evening and
overnight. MUCAPE values to 1k J/Kg will support at least isold ts
but with effective shear of 20-30 knots potential for any stronger
storms is limited with the higher potential to the south where
instability is higher. South winds will again be gusty, especially
over the north where gusts in the 20-30 mph are expected.

Thursday, expect the front to weak over Upper Michigan leaving the
potential for additional shra/tsra development. Expect the best pcpn
chances over the southeast half especially in the afternoon when
MLCAPE values climb into the 500-1000 J/Kg range. Temps should
again climb into the mid to upper 70s. Southwest winds will again be
strong enough across Lake Michigan for a moderate to high swim risk
for the beaches in Schoolcraft county.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019

For the remainder of this week, the warm pattern (above to much
above normal temps) and humid conditions for mid Sept will continue
due to western N America mid-upper level trough and eastern N
America ridging. Late this week, the western trough will shift e and
ne, crossing the western Great Lakes Sun. This will result in
cooling early next week, bringing temps back down to around normal.
As for pcpn, vigorous shortwave currently moving across the western
Dakotas will move across northern Ontario Thu. Associated cold front
will weaken/stall/dissipate as it moves over the area as amplifying
western trough works to maintain/strengthen ridging over the western
Great Lakes. Decaying front could perhaps support some shra/tsra
across the fcst area Thu night into Fri morning as models indicate a
weak shortwave moving across the area. Mid-level trough arriving Sun
will likely provide a better potential of shra/tsra late Sat/Sat
night as the associated cold front moves across the area. Dry
weather should then prevail until the midweek period.

Beginning Thu night, Weak shortwave moving across the area may
support some shra/tsra development Thu night. However, coverage
should be limited if development occurs. Will likely see another
round of low clouds/fog take over under remnant frontal
boundary/light convergent wind field that includes weak onshore flow
off the Great Lakes for portions of the fcst area. Also any added
moisture/rain from shra/tsra that may develop would enhance
potential for areas of dense fog.

Can`t totally rule out isold convection on Fri, but with weak
shortwave exiting and 500mb heights rising a bit, pcpn chances
appear very limited. If low clouds/fog expand as expected Thu night,
light southeasterly low-level winds on Fri will help the low
clouds/fog potentially to persist into part of the afternoon,
especially closer to Lake MI. Will be another warm/humid day with
high temps in the 70s and dwpts mostly 60-65F. Fog/stratus may
expand again Fri night, especially east half under southerly upslope
winds off Lake MI.

Mid-level trough moving out across the Plains on Sat with associated
cold front approaching the Upper Mississippi Valley will result in
increasing southerly winds. With mixed layer winds to around 25kt,
should become a breezy day with winds gusting to 20-30mph, highest
west. Showers/t-storms should move into the w half of the fcst area
during Sat afternoon and then progress eastward during the evening.
With the cold front and moisture outrunning the better shortwave
dynamics, models not as bullish with qpf amounts. However, with
PWATS still running around 1.5 inches, there is a potential for
brief heavy rain with the t-storms.

With the cold front likely clearing the area Sun morning, mostly dry
weather will return Sun, and conditions will become less humid under
breezy westerly winds. Under a favorable westerly wind direction,
fairly tight pres gradient and at least weak CAA, winds could gust
35-40mph on the Keweenaw Sun. A secondary shortwave will be dropping
thru the passing trough, but given limited instability, not much
more than sprinkles expected Sun afternoon into Sun night.

Dry weather will continue Mon and probably Tue under building high
pressure. Next shortwave arriving Wed and WAA/isentropic lift ahead
of it will bring the next chance of showers at some point Tue
night/Wed.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019

Southerly winds will remain gusty this afternoon into this evening
at all terminals. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
across all terminals tonight. However, confidence in timing and
coverage remains low so only have VCSH mentions for now to highlight
a general trend in timing. Although a low level jet will also be
develop that could support some LLWS, mixing should remain high
enough so that gusty winds will remain at the surface. Low level
moisture with lingering sw flow Thursday morning should support MVFR
cigs at KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019

Stability may remain high enough as the low level jet strengthens
tonight so that gusts remain below gales. However, there may be
brief periods of a few gale force gusts over the east half.
By Thursday, a weakening front sags south of the lake, and winds
diminish below 20 knots. This front remains fairly washed out and
high pressure generally takes hold through Friday night, keeping
winds below 20 knots. Saturday through Sunday, winds southerly winds
will veers westerly throughout the weekend as a cold front pushes
eastward. Ahead of and behind the front, winds of 20-30 knots are
expected. It is possible there could be a window of gales in there
as well.

Occasional fog will remain possible through the end of the week,
likely until we can get drier air to move in with a stronger cold
front arriving over the weekend. The most likely locations for fog
occurrence will be over the west half today, as well as locations
near the MN Arrowhead.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

1005 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A Canadian high pressure will build down the Eastern Seaboard
today and settle over the region from Thursday into the weekend.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Wednesday...

Fair and cool weather expected overnight thanks to sfc high pressure
extending south across the Carolinas, and subsident northerly flow
aloft. The clouds and cigs to our west are expected to slowly drift
west overnight. Meanwhile, stratus and stratocu along the coast
are depicted by the HRRR to slowly drift westward given the low
level NE flow, possibly drifting toward our NE zones toward
daybreak, but mostly remaining to our east overnight. Either way
however, low-impact weather overnight.

Based on current dwpt trends, lows tonight around 50 look good, with
perhaps a few of the normally colder locations dipping into the
upper 40s.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will continue to build down the eastern seaboard on
Thursday and settle over NC by Thursday night. This will result in
mostly clear skies and cooler than normal highs and lows. 1000-
850mb thicknesses in the 1355-1365m range suggest highs in the mid
70s and lows in the lower 50s, with climatology supporting mid and
upper 40s in rural areas.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to extend across NC through the
weekend as mid level ridging builds overhead, and continued low PW
(under 1") with a stable column will result in dry weather. After
one last day of well below normal temps Fri, the high center will
push offshore Sat, and the resulting moderation in air mass will
induce the rise in high temps back to above normal values, although
morning lows will stay somewhat cool, in the 50s.

Dry weather appears likely to hold Mon through Wed despite warm air
advection ahead of an approaching cold front which crosses NC NW to
SE on Tue, accompanying a mid level shortwave trough. Mid and high
clouds are likely, especially north, but the preceding low level
flow will have enough of a westerly component to minimize low level
moistening, and frontal convergence is lacking. The front provides
more of a glancing blow as the cooler air mass to our N quickly
exits off the Northeast coast, resulting in just minor cooling on
Wed. Expect temps through the period to be well above normal, with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. -GIH

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 725 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with a few mid-level
clouds filtering in from the north. Winds during the period will
remain northeasterly with occasional gusts Thursday afternoon up to
15 kts. Overnight, not much in the way of obstructions as far as fog
or low stratus is concerned.

Long term: VFR conditions expected to remain for several days as
surface high pressure remains in place overhead for the vast
majority of the forecast period.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Ellis

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

622 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Not much change form the past few days: Hot with a few afternoon
showers. Visible satellite imagery shows some clusters of cumulus
have developed and the HRRR shows some very isolated pulse showers
through sunset, mainly in counties along/east of Missouri Hwy 13.

Similar conditions are expected Thursday with maybe a slight
uptick in afternoon shower activity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Heavy rain potential with a moisture rich Gulf air mass and the
remains of TS Imelda are the main concern for this period.

Friday-Weekend: Moisture return will begin to impact the region
Friday. We will see increased coverage of showers and a few storms
as pwat`s increase to an unseasonably high 1.8 inches (varies
based on guidance). Mechanisms for deep lift will be lacking
Friday, but any showers that do develop will likely be efficient
rain producers. The overall rain coverage will increase into the
weekend as pwats increase to close to 2.0 inches in some areas and
the moisture begins to interact with a front moving south into
eastern KS and northern MO by Saturday night. That front begins to
wash out/weaken by Sunday/Monday as it moves south into our area.
The best chances for heavy rain looks to be late Saturday night
through Sunday night. Went with a model blend which has 2-4 inches
of rain along/north of I-44 then gradually lesser amounts to the
southeast.

Monday-Wednesday: Models vary quite a bit with a shortwave
expected to move through (or into) the western CONUS during this
period. The operational GFS is stronger and farther east with a
closed low into the central/southern High Plains by late Tue
versus the GFS ensembles and ECMWF which hold back the shortwave
much farther west. Really don`t have a good feel at all how much
rain we will see for this period, but in general the GFS looks too
bullish for rain. The model blend in the forecast database is on
the higher end of rainfall amounts versus most guidance.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Continued quiet weather thanks to a ridge across the region. There
could be some diurnal showers and storms Thursday afternoon, but
coverage appears quite limited so did not include that in the TAF.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Today Thursday
Springfield 94/1960 96/1954
Joplin 96/1952 98/1954
West Plains 96/1972 97/1954
Rolla/Vichy 95/1953 100/1954

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Schaumann