Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/09/19


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Water vapor loops showed a subtle disturbance moving out of northeast New Mexico toward southwest Kansas and the Panhandles this morning. Another stronger shortwave trough was moving out of Utah into Colorado early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms have persisted south of Dodge City through the morning and early afternoon hours. These storms appear to be forced along an old outflow boundary lingering in that area, as well as with lift from the New Mexico disturbance. Additional showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the area and farther south into the OK/TX panhandles. The last several runs of the various CAMs models have been more or less showing this convective activity spreading north and northeast across the forecast area through the late afternoon and early evening hours. The upper wave to our west will swing out across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas into Nebraska and the western Dakotas overnight tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave will move into west central and northwest Kansas late this evening and then transition across the area through the late night hours. The best chances for measurable precipitation will be across the western and northern sections of the forecast area. Rain chances will come to an end and there should be some clearing over western sections of the forecast area later tonight as the upper wave moves northeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing over central and eastern portions of the area Monday morning with a diminishing trend through the late morning and afternoon. A frontal boundary is progged to extend across west central into north central Kansas on Monday afternoon with thunderstorms possible along this front through the late afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures should rise back into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area but lingering cloudiness could have some impacts on this especially over central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 As the shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains tonight and Monday, another upper level trough deepens over the western states as shortwave energy dives out of the Gulf of Alaska into the upper trough. By Wednesday, this wave drops through the bottom of the upper trough and then heads northeast, taking the upper trough with it. This system will push a cold front south across western Kansas late Wednesday night and early Thursday. With the front moving through at the diurnally unfavorable time of day, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be fairly minimal. South central Kansas will see the best chance for storms as the front will be moving through there during the afternoon hours. Whatever storms develop along the front will move out of south central Kansas fairly quickly as the front continues south. A fairly cool, dry airmass will be moving into the central Plains behind this front. Low temperatures will more than likely dip into the 50s behind the front Thursday night with highs on Friday staying in the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 VFR will continue to prevail through this TAF cycle. A shortwave trough axis is passing SW KS early this morning, and this energy will combine with the low level jet to initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms through sunrise. Best chance of passing showers is at HYS through 12z Mon. Given the low level jet, included low level wind shear in all TAFs for the next several hours. After 15z Mon, strong south winds will impact aviation operations, with gusts in the 30-35 kt range. Only scattered mid/high clouds expected daylight Monday, with any late afternoon convection expected to remain near/west of a GCK-LBL line by around 00z Tue. Included VCTS/CB in the GCK/LBL TAFs near 00z Tue, as suggested by the HRRR model, but confidence in direct terminal impacts is low. South winds will diminish some at sunset Monday evening, but remain elevated through Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 89 69 88 / 40 30 20 20 GCK 66 91 64 89 / 50 20 20 10 EHA 64 89 64 87 / 60 10 20 20 LBL 67 89 68 88 / 50 20 20 10 HYS 69 87 68 86 / 50 30 30 20 P28 72 91 71 90 / 40 20 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms will remain spotty through the remainder of the afternoon hours, but should increase in coverage heading into the evening, mainly along and east of the Rio Grande, as outflow from thunderstorms in Mexico spreads northwards, and an upper level disturbance moves in from the west. Rainfall is likely to persist through the evening over some areas east of the Rio Grande. Drier air will start to push into the Gila Region and areas north and west of El Paso early in the week, with thunderstorms mainly focused near the international border and areas east of the Rio Grande. Drier air will likely take over by Wednesday and Thursday, with additional moisture improving thunderstorm chances Friday and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows a series of mostly weak shortwave troughs moving through eastern NM and areas east of ELP, and a somewhat stronger trough located near the AZ/NM border. Convection has been slow to develop, and is mostly been developing ahead of the shortwave troughs, with little of the usual orographic initiation. RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values over 500 J/Kg mainly around the periphery of the CWA, with a minimum over the Rio Grande and Tularosa Basins. CIN values are slowly eroding, generally -10 to -20 J/Kg and maximized in the minimum CAPE area. Several CAMS runs, particularly the NAM-init University of Arizona WRF from 12Z, suggest convection will mainly favor areas near and east of the Rio Grande this evening and tonight, with initiation occurring as outflow from thunderstorms over NW Chihuahua pushes into the area from the SW, and the westernmost shortwave approaches the Rio Grande. The shortwave looks to slow down tonight, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms going through the overnight hours, mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. The upper level pattern Monday through Wednesday has a high amplitude trough over the West Coast and Pacific Northwest. Mid-level winds from the southwest will cause mid-level moisture from Mexico to hang back across the eastern and southern portions of the CWA, with drier air working into northern New Mexico and into parts of the Gila. Drier air will also seep into the Gila at the surface, due to a surface trough persisting along the Rio Grande. The Pacific trough will eject into the northern Plains late Wed into Thursday, allowing the subtropical ridge to build westward over northern Mexico, and drier westerly flow to take over. There is some disagreement between the GFS (and its ensembles) and the ECMWF Wed/Thu... with the Euro favoring drier conditions, and the GFS keeping some enhanced moisture over the area trapped under the western edge of the ridge. Either way, both models suggest the western ridge axis will shift northwards on Friday and Saturday, reversing the mid-level flow and allowing more moisture to return to the area around the same time that low level SE flow increases. This will lead to another uptick in thunderstorm activity Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid 09/00Z-10/00Z Mostly VFR expected through the period. Isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over this period, especially in areas east of the Rio Grande. This will result in periods of MVFR and IFR, and possibly some LIFR near the strongest cells. Storms are expected to continue into the night hours. Also some of this activity will lead to mountain obscurations overnight. Winds continue from the southwest with speeds up to 15 kts through 3Z, then decrease between 5 to 10 kts. However, strong gusty winds are possible near storms due to outflow boundaries. More storms are expected tomorrow after 18Z with a better focus in areas east of the river and the mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moistures remains in the region as a series of upper level disturbances drag a moisture plume over New Mexico. The activity tonight will be more focused over areas east of the Rio Grande. Along with the possibility of periods of heavy rain with some of this storms. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms in those areas, and becoming more widespread tomorrow and Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity will stay over 35% in the lowlands and over 40% in the mountains which in turn leads to very good overnight recoveries. Ventilation rates remain between the fair and very good categories with some portions of the Sacramento Mountains in the poor category for the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 87 70 87 / 60 40 50 30 Sierra Blanca 65 80 64 80 / 80 70 60 60 Las Cruces 66 86 65 85 / 50 30 40 20 Alamogordo 67 85 65 88 / 60 40 40 30 Cloudcroft 48 65 49 66 / 70 60 40 60 Truth or Consequences 66 88 65 88 / 40 30 20 30 Silver City 60 80 59 80 / 20 30 20 50 Deming 67 88 65 87 / 30 30 40 30 Lordsburg 66 86 65 86 / 20 30 30 40 West El Paso Metro 71 87 71 88 / 50 40 50 30 Dell City 65 85 65 87 / 80 50 50 50 Fort Hancock 71 84 71 87 / 80 60 50 50 Loma Linda 64 79 64 81 / 70 40 50 40 Fabens 71 82 69 85 / 70 40 50 40 Santa Teresa 68 86 68 86 / 50 40 40 20 White Sands HQ 69 87 68 87 / 50 40 40 30 Jornada Range 64 88 64 87 / 50 30 40 20 Hatch 65 89 65 88 / 40 30 40 30 Columbus 67 87 66 86 / 40 40 40 20 Orogrande 68 84 66 86 / 60 40 40 30 Mayhill 55 74 54 75 / 70 70 40 70 Mescalero 53 75 53 76 / 70 50 30 50 Timberon 52 70 52 72 / 70 60 40 60 Winston 54 80 52 80 / 20 40 20 40 Hillsboro 61 86 59 86 / 20 30 20 40 Spaceport 63 88 62 87 / 40 30 30 30 Lake Roberts 52 80 52 80 / 10 30 10 40 Hurley 60 83 59 82 / 20 30 20 40 Cliff 59 88 57 88 / 10 30 20 40 Mule Creek 61 83 60 81 / 10 20 20 40 Faywood 60 84 59 83 / 20 30 30 40 Animas 65 86 64 86 / 40 50 30 40 Hachita 65 86 63 85 / 30 40 30 30 Antelope Wells 64 84 62 84 / 40 50 30 40 Cloverdale 62 79 62 78 / 50 50 30 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 25-Hardiman / 29-Crespo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
853 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Updating the forecast to hit fog harder in our Nebraska counties before a batch of rain moves in. Short-term models are landing in pretty good agreement with this. Fog will probably only last 3 to 6 hours, and could be locally dense, and should be largely gone by after sunrise, except perhaps for some areas well to the north and northeast that may hold onto some fog for a few hours after sunrise. Looks like our Kansas counties will stay well south of any major fog development. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 The main challenge today/tonight is the chance for thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The 12z and 18z NAMNest and the HRRR runs throughout the day have continued to bring a line of convection through the area during the overnight hours. This line is the best chance for precipitation over the next few days despite the persistent off and on chances. That being said, the model runs mentioned above continue to lessen the certainty that this convection will be widespread. Still scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening and again overnight. Patchy fog is again possible for areas along and north of I-80 during the overnight hours. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms may linger early Monday before moving off to the east. Then again Monday afternoon and evening there is a chance for some scattered showers/thunderstorms, but the better chance looks to be north and east of the area. Temperatures Monday will be warmer than today...with southerly flow as the surface trough is to the west of the area. Highs in the 80s are expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonal with highs in the 80s and scattered off and on chances for showers and storms. The next upper wave will move through Thursday which will bring another chance for thunderstorms to the region and another cool down. Highs will drop back into the 70s for the end of the work week as surface high pressure moves overhead. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Main concerns include LLWS for late tonight into Monday morning more toward KEAR. This is not a sure bet, and we will be more on the fringe of this. I left this out for KGRI for now. Some models are also hitting lower visibility a little hard again tonight, but the scenario will not be quite as favorable as compared to last night. Ceilings will also be tricky as they are forecast all over the place from different models, but went middle of the road IFR/MVFR for most of the night. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...Billings Wright LONG TERM...Billings Wright AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
924 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A few lingering showers continue just south of KSLN as an area of 850-700h moisture transport pushes into north central KS. Showers over northern OK from earlier this evening, also appear to be diurnally driven as they have diminished as well. Think most of the forecast area will see a "lull in the showers" for at least the next 3 to 6 hours, as the first area of moisture transport shifts to the north of the area as the warm front begins to push north. Latest RAP shows another area of 850-700h moisture transport increasing across central OK and lifting north into south central KS and areas west of I-135 after 09-10z or towards sunrise on Mon. This moisture transport and increased mid level isentropic lift will lead widely scattered showers again increasing early on Monday morning, possibly leading to showers lingering will into the morning hours on Mon. Most of the elevated instability lifts north of the area, so think showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder appear more likely. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A nearly stationary front continues to sit across Kansas this afternoon and will slowly drift north as a weak warm front late tonight. A weak PV wave and 850-700mb WAA continue to support a few scattered showers and storms this afternoon along the stationary front. Aloft, a trough axis extends from an upper low in the pacific northwest south through the Southern Rockies. This trough axis will rotate through the Central Plains late tonight. Best instability will be early in the evening over central KS. Best chances for showers and storms will be late evening/early morning. However an early evening storm would likely be strong across south central to central KS with gusts to 50mph with small hail. The passing shortwave tonight will support scattered convection overnight aided by moisture transport increasing across central and south central KS with a strengthening LLJ (40-50kts) progged to set up over portions of central and south central KS. Best storm chances remain off to the west of the area. Any overnight convection may linger through the morning tomorrow as the moisture transport is slow to move out. A tightened pressure gradient will support gusty winds tomorrow across portions of south central and central KS. Winds to 35kts are likely with higher gusts possible. Trended the winds up a bit, however, they may need to be adjusted up higher if model trends continue. Expect highs in the upper 80s in central KS to the low 90s across southeast KS tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms may develop again overnight tomorrow night into Tuesday across portions of central and south central KS supported by increased moisture transport and strong 850-700mb WAA. A few storms may be strong. Otherwise weak 500mb southwesterly flow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temps holding steady in the upper 80s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A deepening trough over the northwest CONUS will drift west through Montana on Thursday and push a sfc cold front through the Central Plains Thursday into Friday. The front will increase chances of showers and storms. As the previous forecaster mentioned these storms still appear to have severe potential including large hail and damaging winds as models continue to hold favorable cape/shear profiles. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front with high temps near 80 expected on Friday. Dry conditions will continue into the weekend with weak ridging setting up overhead.&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Satellite trends are showing the low clouds at KRSL receding and expect that deck to be well out of that region by 19z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail and some mdt CU forming in areas that experience breaks in the clouds. The warm front that is currently across the northern sections will keep a VCSH mentioned at KRSL, KSLN, and KGBD into the evening hours. A slighter chance for VCSH will occur at KHUT this afternoon with some diurnal heating. If enough heating occurs this afternoon, a few of the showers that develop could have a little more vertical ascent and produce thunder and lower end wind gusts and hail. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Satellite trends are showing the low clouds at KRSL receding and expect that deck to be well out of that region by 19z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail and some mdt CU forming in areas that experience breaks in the clouds. The warm front that is currently across the northern sections will keep a VCSH mentioned at KRSL, KSLN, and KGBD into the evening hours. A slighter chance for VCSH will occur at KHUT this afternoon with some diurnal heating. If enough heating occurs this afternoon, a few of the showers that develop could have a little more vertical ascent and produce thunder and lower end wind gusts and hail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 91 71 89 / 20 20 20 20 Hutchinson 72 89 72 88 / 30 20 20 20 Newton 72 89 71 88 / 20 20 20 20 ElDorado 74 91 71 88 / 20 10 20 10 Winfield-KWLD 73 92 71 90 / 20 0 20 10 Russell 70 88 70 88 / 40 40 30 20 Great Bend 70 88 71 88 / 40 40 30 20 Salina 71 88 72 89 / 30 30 30 30 McPherson 71 88 71 87 / 30 30 30 30 Coffeyville 72 93 71 90 / 10 0 10 10 Chanute 72 91 70 89 / 10 0 10 0 Iola 72 91 70 89 / 10 0 10 0 Parsons-KPPF 72 91 71 89 / 10 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 424 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Great Lakes keeping the thicker clouds/pcpn associated with a se MN shortwave to the south. Otherwise, a cool airmass continued to dominate the region with surface high pressure centered over northern Lake Superior. Tonight, the ridge will drift east of Lake Superior with ridging back through Upper Michigan. Expect enough clearing overnight as daytime cu/sc fade and the thicker mid/high clouds remain to the south for most of the night to allow good radiational cooling conditions. Typical cold spots inland, especially across Iron county, should drop into the lower to mid 30s with some patchy frost. Confidence in temps going much lower is limited as mid/high clouds may advance into the west late. Monday, clouds will gradually increase and thicken from the southwest as WAA and isentropic lift strengthens ahead surface trough advancing through the plains and a shrtwv lifting northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Rain should move into the west late in the afternoon with the heavier pcpn holding off until Mon night. Elevated instability and any thunder will also remain to the southwest of Upper Michigan. Southeast low level flow will bring in slightly warmer air pushing highs into the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019 Busy week ahead with two fairly big systems in the long-term - one right in the beginning (tomorrow night into Tuesday) and then another to end the week - and maybe some sneakier more subtle waves as well. The large scale pattern will be characterized by SE U.S. ridging and numerous short waves zipping along the jet stream through a western U.S. trough that will break down mid-week. The first system will be developing over the western Dakotas on Monday. Given confluence to our north over Ontario, models all shear out this wave as it progresses eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Nonetheless, models show PWATs rising to AOA 1.5" Monday night and with strong fgen and moisture convergence on the remnant warm front, will see periods of heavy rain overspread the entire CWA in the evening. Right now the heaviest rain looks to focus on the nose of the LLJ, which would be over western and then northern Lake Superior. Lesser (but still significant) rainfall amounts of generally 0.75-1.0" are expected on land. This morning`s 12z NAM develops some sort of meso-low or inverted trough near the Keweenaw around 06z Tue. The resulting pressure gradient and pressure falls/isallobaric acceleration drive winds over eastern Lake Superior well up over gale threshold and well into the 20s to near 30 kts on land. There is some support for this solution from the other hi-res guidance but it looks a little wonky and the GFS is not nearly as aggressive, so have more or less split the difference in wind gusts. Nonetheless, should see some 20-30 mph gusts overnight Monday night. On Tuesday the rain clears out as the warm front lifts away to the northeast. With some clearing Tuesday and 850 mb temps over 15 C, could actually be quite warm by September standards - highs in the 80s possible over the south-central and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. The models also build up some decent CAPE (up to 2000 J/kg south- central and east) but a capping inversion and very weak forcing along the cold-ish front Tuesday afternoon should limit any showers and thunderstorms to widely scattered at best. With enough westerly shear around, there`s an outside shot at a strong to severe storm but really I think the lack of forcing will preclude that from happening. That front sags slightly south but more or less remains in the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore it`s a low confidence forecast Wednesday, reminiscent of a mid-summer pattern with a short wave riding along the remnant boundary and rain chances dependent on upstream convective evolution. The 12z EC (and the 00z before it) pick up on some sort of stronger forced mesoscale system and drive another 0.5"+ rainfall over the area. May or may not actually see that materialize but there`s enough of a signal here for chance to likely (over the south) POPs. Then it`s yet another big system for the end of the week in all of the models. Right now it looks like a deeper system with stronger forcing for gusty winds (and possibly another round of gales on the water) as well as another round of soaking rain and/or thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. After that confidence breaks down so have left NBM POPs in resulting in dry weather Saturday and another round of showers Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 631 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019 Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 424 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019 Winds will remain under 20 knots tonight as high pressure over the area slides slowly off to the east. Winds will then increase later Mon into Tue as the high pres departs and low pres tracks e toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. Southeast gales will be possible over eastern Lake Superior where a Gale Watch has been posted. Gales may again be possible Thu into early Fri as a strong low pressure system moves from the plains to northern Ontario. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for LSZ267. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for LSZ264>266. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB