Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/09/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Water vapor loops showed a subtle disturbance moving out of
northeast New Mexico toward southwest Kansas and the Panhandles
this morning. Another stronger shortwave trough was moving out of
Utah into Colorado early this afternoon.
A few thunderstorms have persisted south of Dodge City through the
morning and early afternoon hours. These storms appear to be forced
along an old outflow boundary lingering in that area, as well as
with lift from the New Mexico disturbance. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the area and farther
south into the OK/TX panhandles.
The last several runs of the various CAMs models have been more or
less showing this convective activity spreading north and northeast
across the forecast area through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. The upper wave to our west will swing out across northeast
Colorado and northwest Kansas into Nebraska and the western Dakotas
overnight tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
wave will move into west central and northwest Kansas late this
evening and then transition across the area through the late night
hours. The best chances for measurable precipitation will be
across the western and northern sections of the forecast area.
Rain chances will come to an end and there should be some clearing
over western sections of the forecast area later tonight as the
upper wave moves northeast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing over central
and eastern portions of the area Monday morning with a diminishing
trend through the late morning and afternoon. A frontal boundary
is progged to extend across west central into north central Kansas
on Monday afternoon with thunderstorms possible along this front
through the late afternoon and early evening hours.
High temperatures should rise back into the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area but lingering cloudiness could have some impacts
on this especially over central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
As the shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains tonight
and Monday, another upper level trough deepens over the western
states as shortwave energy dives out of the Gulf of Alaska into
the upper trough. By Wednesday, this wave drops through the bottom
of the upper trough and then heads northeast, taking the upper
trough with it. This system will push a cold front south across
western Kansas late Wednesday night and early Thursday. With the
front moving through at the diurnally unfavorable time of day,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be fairly minimal.
South central Kansas will see the best chance for storms as the
front will be moving through there during the afternoon hours.
Whatever storms develop along the front will move out of south
central Kansas fairly quickly as the front continues south.
A fairly cool, dry airmass will be moving into the central Plains
behind this front. Low temperatures will more than likely dip into
the 50s behind the front Thursday night with highs on Friday
staying in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
VFR will continue to prevail through this TAF cycle. A shortwave
trough axis is passing SW KS early this morning, and this energy
will combine with the low level jet to initiate isolated showers
and thunderstorms through sunrise. Best chance of passing showers
is at HYS through 12z Mon. Given the low level jet, included low
level wind shear in all TAFs for the next several hours. After
15z Mon, strong south winds will impact aviation operations, with
gusts in the 30-35 kt range. Only scattered mid/high clouds
expected daylight Monday, with any late afternoon convection
expected to remain near/west of a GCK-LBL line by around 00z Tue.
Included VCTS/CB in the GCK/LBL TAFs near 00z Tue, as suggested by
the HRRR model, but confidence in direct terminal impacts is low.
South winds will diminish some at sunset Monday evening, but
remain elevated through Monday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 89 69 88 / 40 30 20 20
GCK 66 91 64 89 / 50 20 20 10
EHA 64 89 64 87 / 60 10 20 20
LBL 67 89 68 88 / 50 20 20 10
HYS 69 87 68 86 / 50 30 30 20
P28 72 91 71 90 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will remain spotty through the remainder of the
afternoon hours, but should increase in coverage heading into the
evening, mainly along and east of the Rio Grande, as outflow from
thunderstorms in Mexico spreads northwards, and an upper level
disturbance moves in from the west. Rainfall is likely to persist
through the evening over some areas east of the Rio Grande.
Drier air will start to push into the Gila Region and areas north
and west of El Paso early in the week, with thunderstorms mainly
focused near the international border and areas east of the Rio
Grande. Drier air will likely take over by Wednesday and Thursday,
with additional moisture improving thunderstorm chances Friday and
into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a series of mostly weak shortwave
troughs moving through eastern NM and areas east of ELP, and a
somewhat stronger trough located near the AZ/NM border.
Convection has been slow to develop, and is mostly been
developing ahead of the shortwave troughs, with little of the
usual orographic initiation. RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values over
500 J/Kg mainly around the periphery of the CWA, with a minimum
over the Rio Grande and Tularosa Basins. CIN values are slowly
eroding, generally -10 to -20 J/Kg and maximized in the minimum
CAPE area.
Several CAMS runs, particularly the NAM-init University of Arizona
WRF from 12Z, suggest convection will mainly favor areas near and
east of the Rio Grande this evening and tonight, with initiation
occurring as outflow from thunderstorms over NW Chihuahua pushes
into the area from the SW, and the westernmost shortwave
approaches the Rio Grande.
The shortwave looks to slow down tonight, keeping the threat of
showers and thunderstorms going through the overnight hours,
mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
The upper level pattern Monday through Wednesday has a high
amplitude trough over the West Coast and Pacific Northwest.
Mid-level winds from the southwest will cause mid-level moisture
from Mexico to hang back across the eastern and southern portions
of the CWA, with drier air working into northern New Mexico and
into parts of the Gila. Drier air will also seep into the Gila at
the surface, due to a surface trough persisting along the Rio
Grande.
The Pacific trough will eject into the northern Plains late Wed
into Thursday, allowing the subtropical ridge to build westward
over northern Mexico, and drier westerly flow to take over. There
is some disagreement between the GFS (and its ensembles) and the
ECMWF Wed/Thu... with the Euro favoring drier conditions, and the
GFS keeping some enhanced moisture over the area trapped under
the western edge of the ridge.
Either way, both models suggest the western ridge axis will shift
northwards on Friday and Saturday, reversing the mid-level flow
and allowing more moisture to return to the area around the same
time that low level SE flow increases. This will lead to another
uptick in thunderstorm activity Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 09/00Z-10/00Z
Mostly VFR expected through the period. Isolated to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected over this period,
especially in areas east of the Rio Grande. This will result in
periods of MVFR and IFR, and possibly some LIFR near the
strongest cells. Storms are expected to continue into the night
hours. Also some of this activity will lead to mountain
obscurations overnight. Winds continue from the southwest with
speeds up to 15 kts through 3Z, then decrease between 5 to 10
kts. However, strong gusty winds are possible near storms due to
outflow boundaries. More storms are expected tomorrow after 18Z
with a better focus in areas east of the river and the mountains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moistures remains in the region as a series of upper level
disturbances drag a moisture plume over New Mexico. The activity
tonight will be more focused over areas east of the Rio Grande.
Along with the possibility of periods of heavy rain with some of
this storms. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms in those
areas, and becoming more widespread tomorrow and Tuesday. Minimum
relative humidity will stay over 35% in the lowlands and over 40%
in the mountains which in turn leads to very good overnight
recoveries. Ventilation rates remain between the fair and very
good categories with some portions of the Sacramento Mountains in
the poor category for the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 87 70 87 / 60 40 50 30
Sierra Blanca 65 80 64 80 / 80 70 60 60
Las Cruces 66 86 65 85 / 50 30 40 20
Alamogordo 67 85 65 88 / 60 40 40 30
Cloudcroft 48 65 49 66 / 70 60 40 60
Truth or Consequences 66 88 65 88 / 40 30 20 30
Silver City 60 80 59 80 / 20 30 20 50
Deming 67 88 65 87 / 30 30 40 30
Lordsburg 66 86 65 86 / 20 30 30 40
West El Paso Metro 71 87 71 88 / 50 40 50 30
Dell City 65 85 65 87 / 80 50 50 50
Fort Hancock 71 84 71 87 / 80 60 50 50
Loma Linda 64 79 64 81 / 70 40 50 40
Fabens 71 82 69 85 / 70 40 50 40
Santa Teresa 68 86 68 86 / 50 40 40 20
White Sands HQ 69 87 68 87 / 50 40 40 30
Jornada Range 64 88 64 87 / 50 30 40 20
Hatch 65 89 65 88 / 40 30 40 30
Columbus 67 87 66 86 / 40 40 40 20
Orogrande 68 84 66 86 / 60 40 40 30
Mayhill 55 74 54 75 / 70 70 40 70
Mescalero 53 75 53 76 / 70 50 30 50
Timberon 52 70 52 72 / 70 60 40 60
Winston 54 80 52 80 / 20 40 20 40
Hillsboro 61 86 59 86 / 20 30 20 40
Spaceport 63 88 62 87 / 40 30 30 30
Lake Roberts 52 80 52 80 / 10 30 10 40
Hurley 60 83 59 82 / 20 30 20 40
Cliff 59 88 57 88 / 10 30 20 40
Mule Creek 61 83 60 81 / 10 20 20 40
Faywood 60 84 59 83 / 20 30 30 40
Animas 65 86 64 86 / 40 50 30 40
Hachita 65 86 63 85 / 30 40 30 30
Antelope Wells 64 84 62 84 / 40 50 30 40
Cloverdale 62 79 62 78 / 50 50 30 40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25-Hardiman / 29-Crespo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
853 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Updating the forecast to hit fog harder in our Nebraska counties
before a batch of rain moves in. Short-term models are landing in
pretty good agreement with this. Fog will probably only last 3 to
6 hours, and could be locally dense, and should be largely gone
by after sunrise, except perhaps for some areas well to the north
and northeast that may hold onto some fog for a few hours after
sunrise. Looks like our Kansas counties will stay well south of
any major fog development.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
The main challenge today/tonight is the chance for thunderstorms
this evening and overnight. The 12z and 18z NAMNest and the HRRR
runs throughout the day have continued to bring a line of
convection through the area during the overnight hours. This line
is the best chance for precipitation over the next few days
despite the persistent off and on chances. That being said, the
model runs mentioned above continue to lessen the certainty that
this convection will be widespread. Still scattered
showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening and
again overnight.
Patchy fog is again possible for areas along and north of I-80
during the overnight hours.
Some scattered showers/thunderstorms may linger early Monday
before moving off to the east. Then again Monday afternoon and
evening there is a chance for some scattered
showers/thunderstorms, but the better chance looks to be north and
east of the area. Temperatures Monday will be warmer than
today...with southerly flow as the surface trough is to the west
of the area. Highs in the 80s are expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonal with highs in the 80s and
scattered off and on chances for showers and storms. The next
upper wave will move through Thursday which will bring another
chance for thunderstorms to the region and another cool down.
Highs will drop back into the 70s for the end of the work week as
surface high pressure moves overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Main concerns include LLWS for late tonight into Monday morning
more toward KEAR. This is not a sure bet, and we will be more on
the fringe of this. I left this out for KGRI for now. Some models
are also hitting lower visibility a little hard again tonight, but
the scenario will not be quite as favorable as compared to last
night. Ceilings will also be tricky as they are forecast all over
the place from different models, but went middle of the road
IFR/MVFR for most of the night.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
924 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
A few lingering showers continue just south of KSLN as an area of
850-700h moisture transport pushes into north central KS. Showers
over northern OK from earlier this evening, also appear to be
diurnally driven as they have diminished as well. Think most of the
forecast area will see a "lull in the showers" for at least the next
3 to 6 hours, as the first area of moisture transport shifts to the
north of the area as the warm front begins to push north. Latest RAP
shows another area of 850-700h moisture transport increasing across
central OK and lifting north into south central KS and areas west of
I-135 after 09-10z or towards sunrise on Mon. This moisture
transport and increased mid level isentropic lift will lead widely
scattered showers again increasing early on Monday morning, possibly
leading to showers lingering will into the morning hours on Mon.
Most of the elevated instability lifts north of the area, so think
showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder appear more likely.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
A nearly stationary front continues to sit across Kansas this
afternoon and will slowly drift north as a weak warm front late
tonight. A weak PV wave and 850-700mb WAA continue to support a
few scattered showers and storms this afternoon along the
stationary front. Aloft, a trough axis extends from an upper low
in the pacific northwest south through the Southern Rockies. This
trough axis will rotate through the Central Plains late tonight.
Best instability will be early in the evening over central KS.
Best chances for showers and storms will be late evening/early
morning. However an early evening storm would likely be strong
across south central to central KS with gusts to 50mph with small
hail.
The passing shortwave tonight will support scattered convection
overnight aided by moisture transport increasing across central and
south central KS with a strengthening LLJ (40-50kts) progged to set
up over portions of central and south central KS. Best storm chances
remain off to the west of the area. Any overnight convection may
linger through the morning tomorrow as the moisture transport is
slow to move out.
A tightened pressure gradient will support gusty winds tomorrow
across portions of south central and central KS. Winds to 35kts are
likely with higher gusts possible. Trended the winds up a bit,
however, they may need to be adjusted up higher if model trends
continue. Expect highs in the upper 80s in central KS to the low
90s across southeast KS tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop again overnight tomorrow night
into Tuesday across portions of central and south central KS
supported by increased moisture transport and strong 850-700mb
WAA. A few storms may be strong. Otherwise weak 500mb
southwesterly flow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temps
holding steady in the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
A deepening trough over the northwest CONUS will drift west
through Montana on Thursday and push a sfc cold front through the
Central Plains Thursday into Friday. The front will increase
chances of showers and storms. As the previous forecaster
mentioned these storms still appear to have severe potential
including large hail and damaging winds as models continue to hold
favorable cape/shear profiles.
Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front with high temps
near 80 expected on Friday. Dry conditions will continue into the
weekend with weak ridging setting up overhead.&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Satellite trends are showing the low clouds at KRSL receding and
expect that deck to be well out of that region by 19z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail and some mdt CU forming in areas that
experience breaks in the clouds. The warm front that is currently
across the northern sections will keep a VCSH mentioned at KRSL,
KSLN, and KGBD into the evening hours. A slighter chance for VCSH
will occur at KHUT this afternoon with some diurnal heating. If
enough heating occurs this afternoon, a few of the showers that
develop could have a little more vertical ascent and produce
thunder and lower end wind gusts and hail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
Satellite trends are showing the low clouds at KRSL receding and
expect that deck to be well out of that region by 19z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail and some mdt CU forming in areas that
experience breaks in the clouds. The warm front that is currently
across the northern sections will keep a VCSH mentioned at KRSL,
KSLN, and KGBD into the evening hours. A slighter chance for VCSH
will occur at KHUT this afternoon with some diurnal heating. If
enough heating occurs this afternoon, a few of the showers that
develop could have a little more vertical ascent and produce
thunder and lower end wind gusts and hail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 73 91 71 89 / 20 20 20 20
Hutchinson 72 89 72 88 / 30 20 20 20
Newton 72 89 71 88 / 20 20 20 20
ElDorado 74 91 71 88 / 20 10 20 10
Winfield-KWLD 73 92 71 90 / 20 0 20 10
Russell 70 88 70 88 / 40 40 30 20
Great Bend 70 88 71 88 / 40 40 30 20
Salina 71 88 72 89 / 30 30 30 30
McPherson 71 88 71 87 / 30 30 30 30
Coffeyville 72 93 71 90 / 10 0 10 10
Chanute 72 91 70 89 / 10 0 10 0
Iola 72 91 70 89 / 10 0 10 0
Parsons-KPPF 72 91 71 89 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent wnw mid/upper level
flow through the northern Great Lakes keeping the thicker
clouds/pcpn associated with a se MN shortwave to the south.
Otherwise, a cool airmass continued to dominate the region with
surface high pressure centered over northern Lake Superior.
Tonight, the ridge will drift east of Lake Superior with ridging
back through Upper Michigan. Expect enough clearing overnight as
daytime cu/sc fade and the thicker mid/high clouds remain to the
south for most of the night to allow good radiational cooling
conditions. Typical cold spots inland, especially across Iron
county, should drop into the lower to mid 30s with some patchy
frost. Confidence in temps going much lower is limited as mid/high
clouds may advance into the west late.
Monday, clouds will gradually increase and thicken from the
southwest as WAA and isentropic lift strengthens ahead surface
trough advancing through the plains and a shrtwv lifting
northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Rain should move into
the west late in the afternoon with the heavier pcpn holding off
until Mon night. Elevated instability and any thunder will also
remain to the southwest of Upper Michigan. Southeast low level
flow will bring in slightly warmer air pushing highs into the mid
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019
Busy week ahead with two fairly big systems in the long-term - one
right in the beginning (tomorrow night into Tuesday) and then
another to end the week - and maybe some sneakier more subtle waves
as well. The large scale pattern will be characterized by SE U.S.
ridging and numerous short waves zipping along the jet stream through
a western U.S. trough that will break down mid-week.
The first system will be developing over the western Dakotas on
Monday. Given confluence to our north over Ontario, models all shear
out this wave as it progresses eastward toward the Upper Great
Lakes. Nonetheless, models show PWATs rising to AOA 1.5" Monday
night and with strong fgen and moisture convergence on the remnant
warm front, will see periods of heavy rain overspread the entire CWA
in the evening. Right now the heaviest rain looks to focus on the
nose of the LLJ, which would be over western and then northern Lake
Superior. Lesser (but still significant) rainfall amounts of
generally 0.75-1.0" are expected on land. This morning`s 12z NAM
develops some sort of meso-low or inverted trough near the Keweenaw
around 06z Tue. The resulting pressure gradient and pressure
falls/isallobaric acceleration drive winds over eastern Lake
Superior well up over gale threshold and well into the 20s to near
30 kts on land. There is some support for this solution from the
other hi-res guidance but it looks a little wonky and the GFS is not
nearly as aggressive, so have more or less split the difference in
wind gusts. Nonetheless, should see some 20-30 mph gusts overnight
Monday night.
On Tuesday the rain clears out as the warm front lifts away to the
northeast. With some clearing Tuesday and 850 mb temps over 15 C,
could actually be quite warm by September standards - highs in the
80s possible over the south-central and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
The models also build up some decent CAPE (up to 2000 J/kg south-
central and east) but a capping inversion and very weak forcing
along the cold-ish front Tuesday afternoon should limit any showers
and thunderstorms to widely scattered at best. With enough westerly
shear around, there`s an outside shot at a strong to severe storm
but really I think the lack of forcing will preclude that from
happening.
That front sags slightly south but more or less remains in the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore it`s a low confidence
forecast Wednesday, reminiscent of a mid-summer pattern with a short
wave riding along the remnant boundary and rain chances dependent on
upstream convective evolution. The 12z EC (and the 00z before it)
pick up on some sort of stronger forced mesoscale system and drive
another 0.5"+ rainfall over the area. May or may not actually see
that materialize but there`s enough of a signal here for chance to
likely (over the south) POPs.
Then it`s yet another big system for the end of the week in all of
the models. Right now it looks like a deeper system with stronger
forcing for gusty winds (and possibly another round of gales on the
water) as well as another round of soaking rain and/or thunderstorms
Thursday and Thursday night. After that confidence breaks down so
have left NBM POPs in resulting in dry weather Saturday and another
round of showers Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019
Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast
period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 424 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2019
Winds will remain under 20 knots tonight as high pressure over the
area slides slowly off to the east. Winds will then increase later
Mon into Tue as the high pres departs and low pres tracks e toward
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Southeast gales will be possible
over eastern Lake Superior where a Gale Watch has been posted.
Gales may again be possible Thu into early Fri as a strong low
pressure system moves from the plains to northern Ontario.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
LSZ267.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
LSZ264>266.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB