Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/06/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1022 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Latest surface analysis had weak low pressure centered over the MN/WI border, with a trailing cold front extending into the central Plains. The showers/isolated thunderstorms pushing into the area from the central UP and Lake Michigan are not handled well at all by most model guidance, although the HRRR has a clue and the 00Z NAM Nest coming in is also picking up on them. Most of the precipitation is supposed to come along/ahead of the cold front (and better dynamics), which is not supposed to arrive before late tonight/early Friday. Have already updated PoPs to try and account for latest trends, although additional tweaks are needed at this time. Also boosted overnight lows a few degrees given current readings, ample cloud cover, and climbing surface dew points. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High Impact Weather Potential: Low chance for a few non-severe thunderstorms late tonight. Pattern synopsis/forecast: This afternoon`s composite analysis reveals high pressure continuing to shift east across southern Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes region through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours. All the while, upstream leading compact shortwave continues to slide eastward along a rather tight thermal gradient across northeastern WI/U.P. before racing across the region locally later this afternoon and early evening. Surface low pressure situated across northern MN will slide southeastward through the remainder of the day before crossing northern MI overnight into early Friday morning. Combined with shortwave forcing and interacting with the aforementioned thermal gradient, expecting an area of stronger QG forcing to work its way through the region overnight. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower chances and timing through the remainder of the day and tonight. Primarily dry conditions are expected across much of the forecast area for the remainder of the afternoon (despite increasing cloud cover). However, fairly persistent eastward movement to radar returns pushing across far northern Lake Michigan at this time may pose a chance for light showers/sprinkles, primarily over the Tip of the Mitt and northwest lower, over the next several hours. More widespread shower/storm activity to the west of this initial batch...tied closer to the aforementioned wave and better forcing. Still expecting to see an expansion of light shower coverage as we head into later this evening and overnight hours as better forcing associated with the secondary shortwave trough and surface low slide across the region. Latest hi-res guidance continues to depict this thought as well with more numerous showers traversing the region after 01-03z this evening, continuing off/on right on through Friday morning. Overall, not a big rain-maker by any stretch with perhaps a few locations seeing up to a quarter of an inch of rain by the time precip wraps up Friday morning/midday. Thunder chances remain awfully low, but I have opted to add in thunder wording very late tonight across portions of northern lower as a ever so subtle axis of weak instabilty attempts to fold into parts of the region from Wisconsin late tonight into early Friday morning. No severe weather anticipated as that limited threat should remain to our west over WI. Tonight`s low temperatures certainly more mild than last night`s...ranging from the upper 40s in the typically cooler/ interior locales to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday evening) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 ...Thunder Friday... High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible early Friday, but not severe. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure will be moving into the forecast area, Friday morning. Thunderstorms along the warm front will still be continuing into the afternoon, as the low tracks through the region. CAA begins in E Upper and N Lower, by 21z/Fri, which should begin to diminish the Thunder threat, but would expect showers into Friday evening (00z/Sat). Models dry things out, but 850 mb temperatures don`t fall sub +5C until after 12z/Sat and thus making the delta T >13C. Moisture in the 850-700mb layer is limited (except on the NAM), so the LE Rain may be spotty to non-existent. High pressure will then build into the region and dry things out through Sunday evening. Primary Forecast Concerns...Main concern is the thunder threat, and whether we get anything going. Showalter index falls sub 0C so elevated convection is possible, but it leaves pretty quickly as the sfc cold air begins to push out the warm, stabilizing the layer. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. Extended (Sunday evening through Thursday)...Sunday night and Monday will be dry as the next system get set up in the Plains states. High pressure over James Bay, looks to bring dry air into the region, long enough to keep the rain out of the area until after 00z/Tuesday. Then the showers will make their way through the lower peninsula overnight, and then continue into Tuesday, until the cold front moves through. The cold front should be out by 12z/Wed, allowing for lingering showers. High pressure builds back into the region through Thursday, but another low pressure system is set to move through the region Thursday night into Friday bringing rain again to the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 759 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 A weak area of low pressure and associated cold front will cross lower MI on Friday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front, mainly after midnight tonight into midday Friday. The rain will help CIGs eventually lower to MVFR levels later tonight, with a few hours of IFR conditions not out of the question. Generally light winds are anticipated through most of the period, but will begin to become gusty out of the north and northwest behind the front late Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Primarily light winds and waves anticipated through tonight before a bit of gustiness returns at times during the day Friday...perhaps reaching SCA wind/wave criteria on much of the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron nearshore waters. A bit of gustiness possible Saturday as well, perhaps reaching SCA criteria before lighter winds/waves return to wrap up the weekend. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PB NEAR TERM...MG SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JL AVIATION...PB MARINE...MG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
848 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Widely scattered thunderstorms, a few strong, have been developing along several outflow mergers over far southeast WY, with weaker convection over much of Carbon County this evening. Latest RAP advects over 1000 j/kg CAPE westward toward Cheyenne. Increased PoPs to 30 percent over Laramie County through late this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Latest radar loop was showing a few showers and thunderstorms developing over the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. There is also some showers developing over the northern Laramie Range. This activity is not expected to become severe this evening due to limited instability. Latest water vapor loop was showing a fairly distinct shortwave approaching the west coast. This feature is drawing up quite a bit of moisture ahead of it. This shortwave and moisture is expected to spread east during the next 24hours and perhaps bring some low clouds to parts of the area along and east of the Laramie Range tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, tomorrow afternoon we should see more coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Severe coverage will be somewhat limited with the best focus across Converse and Niobrara counties where the shear will be close to 30 to 35kts near the surface low. Most of this convection should weaken and it shifts east during the evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 A fairly dry forecast for Saturday as upper shortwave moves through and shifts winds westerly through much of the day. Need to watching the next front that will be to our north over southern Montana Saturday night into Sunday. Much colder air behind this front as it surges south. GFS showing 700mb temperatures behind that front of +4 to +5C as it surges south and southwestward Sunday morning. GFS continues to show a negatively tilted upper low tracking across Wyoming Sunday afternoon into Monday. Looking at fairly widespread rainfall and maybe another chance at severe thunderstorms. Also need to be watching for strong wind event as 700mb winds near 50kts. Would think these would mainly impact the Arlington wind prone area...but will need to watch. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients exceeding 65 meters for a time Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 VFR under mostly cloudy skies west of KCYS, mostly clear to the east. Showers and isolated thunderstorms over southeast Wyoming TAF sites through 06/06Z. Variable and erratic gusts up to 40 kts associated with convective activity. Generally calm and dry overnight under a high-based BKN to OVC cloud deck. Winds and chances of showers and thunderstorms increase across the region after 06/18Z. Winds will be out of the south and west with gusts to 25 kts ahead of an incoming frontal passage expected to clear the area by 07/06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Marginal fire weather conditions are in place this afternoon. The only location reporting critical fire weather conditions is Otto Road along the I-80 foothills. Otherwise, wind speeds are fairly light with RH`s around 20 to 25 percent. Moisture will be on the increase this weekend which will favor more suppression on the current fires at Pedro Mountain and Ashenfelder. The main concern for the next few days will be new starts from lightning. Drier and very windy conditions are expected on Monday after the passage of a strong frontal boundary. Then southwest flow will kick in on Tuesday over areas west of the Laramie Range which will favor more critical fire weather conditions. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MAJ SHORT TERM...REC LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...AB FIRE WEATHER...REC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show shortwave energy and an associated low pressure system moving into the northern Minnesota early this afternoon. Within the warm advection regime ahead of the low, strong storms are moving across northwest WI within the leading edge of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability. These storms should push across north- central WI during the mid to late afternoon and northeast WI early this evening. As the low pressure moves across the area tonight, potential for strong storms and precip trends are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...Low pressure remains expected to track across far northern WI. Ahead of the low, mid-level moisture advection will push across the region during the evening. Meso-models have been under-doing convection all morning on the edge of the elevated instability over northeast Minnesota and northwest WI. Since models point towards upstream conditions pushing east across northern WI this evening, think will see scattered storms impact the area. With most unstable capes of 750-1000 j/kg, effective shears of 25 to 30 kts, and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km, could see a few strong and isolated severe storms through the evening hours with hail being the primary threat. Any storms should taper off to light rain overnight as precip gradually ends from southwest to northeast. Cloud bases will lower overnight as northwest winds increase behind the low. As a result, temps shouldn`t fall very much, so went with lows in the 50s at most locations. Friday...Ample low clouds are expected to linger across the area during the morning above a breezy north wind. Some clearing is possible during the afternoon, but forecast soundings indicate that fair weather clouds will develop where sunshine occurs. Therefore think skies will remain partly sunny/partly cloudy until the end of the afternoon. Lowered temps a couple degrees due to the greater cloud cover expected. Highs mostly ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Minimal changes were made to the long term forecast. The main opportunity for precipitation is still expected early next week, with a few lighter showers possible at other times. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal. For Friday night, added some patchy fog to the forecast, mainly across central and northern Wisconsin, as guidance continues to hint at this possibility. This also seems reasonable given a period of clear skies and lingering moisture from tonight`s rain. This weekend, surface high pressure will be situated from southern Manitoba to southern Ontario. Meanwhile, a surface low will move across the Central Plains. This puts northeast Wisconsin between two opposing air masses. Models continue to show the drier air to the north winning out, but that doesn`t eliminate the potential for some short-lived showers or sprinkles. The best chance would be Sunday morning and afternoon south of Hwy 29, closer to the surface low. The GFS is the most aggressive with this scenario, while the EC and Canadian keep the precip further south. Clouds will likely be variable through the weekend as they spread in from any showers or storms further west. Next week, models continue to pinpoint late Monday into Tuesday as the next chance for more widespread rain or thunderstorms. The Canadian has slowed down on timing, coming more in line with the GFS and EC. This leads to increased confidence in precip Monday night and Tuesday. Conditions dry out Wednesday as high pressure builds into Wisconsin, then beyond Wednesday forecast confidence is low as models diverge. Temperatures will generally be below normal through the long term, possibly rising closer to normal through the midweek depending on cloud cover and precip. Used a blend of the best performing guidance for daily highs and lows. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Ceilings were gradually lowering across the area, but the IFR/LIFR ceilings were still to the northwest. Those should drop southeast later in the night as a cyclone migrates across the region. Only a slow improvement is anticipated Friday as cyclonic flow and plenty of low-level moisture linger across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 North winds behind a low pressure system will become gusty on Friday morning. Winds of 15-25 kts are expected to peak around early afternoon before subsiding by early evening. A small craft advisory may be needed from mid-morning through mid- afternoon Friday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KLJ AVIATION.......Skowronski MARINE.........MPC
Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details
on the upcoming cooling trend. Keene
&& .AVIATION...For the 06/00Z TAFs...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue from the coastal range eastward through this evening, some of which will be strong producing gusty and erratic winds and hail. Thunderstorms are likely to peak in coverage and intensity through 02Z this evening but activity is likely to linger until around midnight/07Z. VFR ceilings are expected to be the predominant condition into this evening, except for MVFR ceilings and visibility in thunderstorms. Meanwhile, coastal IFR/LIFR stratus/fog will persist through Friday with the most extensive coverage and lowest ceiling heights early Friday morning. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday 5 September 2019...Winds and seas will remain relatively light through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will build into the waters Friday into Saturday. A series of weak to moderately strong fronts will follow late Saturday through Tuesday with a chance of light rain, The strongest of these fronts will move onshore Monday. Moderate west swell will build Sunday into Tuesday, rising from around 4 feet to a peak around 7 feet. -DW && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 905 PM PDT Thursday 5 September 2019...On Friday, expect dry but continued warm weather over the area. An upper trough will approach from the west and move into the area this weekend, bringing cooler conditions and a chance for showers, especially at the coast and into the Umpqua, Southern Oregon Cascades and northern Klamath County. Strongest afternoon breezes on Friday will be east of the Cascades. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening over the Southern Oregon Cascades, mainly from Crater Lake northward. Also on Saturday, expect some breezy to gusty afternoon and evening winds for areas east of the Cascades and into the Shasta valley. Another upper trough is possible early next week, bringing continued mild weather and additional chances for showers. -CC/Keene && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will be main concern through early this evening. Plenty of low level moisture exist from overnight thunderstorms with several locations west of the Cascades showing dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. This is pretty impressive for this time of the year and for this area. The fact that thunderstorms gave off some latent heat is going to provide a spring load for a very active day. In other words once that spring gives way, thunderstorms will begin to fire up. Were already starting to see the first signs of that. The latest satellite image shows instability clouds already developing with storms developing north of Crater Lake and east of the Cascades. Additionally the radar is starting to light up with thunderstorms developing in Modoc, Lake and eastern Klamath County. Thunderstorm coverage will increase over time with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected for most of the area. The only exception will be in northwest Douglas County and most of Siskiyou County where storms are expected to be isolated. Frequency of lighting and storm intensity is also expected to increase. Plenty of dynamics remain ahead of the upper low during and the models suggest the upper low/trough could become negatively tilted late this afternoon during the time of max heating. Upper level winds will also be stronger today, so it`s not out of the question a few storms could be strong to perhaps severe with locally gusty winds and small hail. Keep in mind that gusty and erratic winds are possible near the core of thunderstorms. Of note: There`s good agreement among the convective allowing models (CAM) for thunderstorms to fire up early to mid afternoon, then increasing in coverage late this afternoon into this evening. of particular concern is west of the Cascades where the CAM shows what could be strong storms forming along the Jackson/Josephine County border and moving north towards Douglas County. Additionally the latest high res HRRR also shows this with storms developing between 3-4 pm pdt. The focus for thunderstorms are expected to shift north and east as the upper trough swings through the area tonight. Still could not rule out thunderstorms in northern Lake and Klamath County later tonight, but the bulk of the action will ne north and east of our area. Dry weather returns Friday with shortwave ridging building into the area. The operational ECMWF and GFS and ensembles remain in fairly good agreement suggesting a pattern change for the weekend and likely lasting into at least the middle of next week. General troughiness will set up over the area bringing cooler weather. There is the potential for showers each day, but the specifics on location, timing and frequency varies. An upper trough approaches from the west to northwest Saturday afternoon, then splitting with an upper low forming south of our forecast area Sunday. The pattern is not one typically favorable for thunderstorms Saturday, but some of the models do hint at marginal instability from around Crater Lake north, so we`ll add a slight chance of storms there. Overall were expecting isolated to scattered showers. Saturday, the best chance for showers are expected to be along and east of the Cascades. Weak shortwave ridging builds in Sunday, but the models hint at some precipitation along the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide. Suspect this may be overdone given the shortwave ridging, so we`ll keep a slight chance mention for now. Another upper trough arrives Sunday night with troughing remaining over the area Monday through Wednesday. At the surface will be a series of weak fronts bringing a slight chance to a chance of showers mainly north of the Umpqua Divide, coast and northern Cascades. It will remain cool with temperatures near seasonal norms. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ616-617-620>625. CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281-284-285. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
630 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 410 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show wnw flow into the Upper Great Lakes this aftn. Well-defined shortwave that was over sw Saskatchewan 24hrs ago has weakened on its track toward Lake Superior. Trailing shortwave moving into northern ND/nw MN will become the more dominate feature tonight as it amplifies into the Great Lakes region. Shra/tsra, some strong/svr tsra, that were over northern MN early this morning have been tracking ese, mostly to the s of Upper MI today. As a result, the only measurable rainfall to occur has been from far western Upper MI toward KIMT. However, recently, approaching left exit of upper jet supporting the upstream shortwave and increasing deep layer forcing are resulting in new shra development across ne MN into western Upper MI. The increase in forcing for upward motion is quite apparent in the last hr or two of vis satellite imagery which shows a notable increasing trend in convective cloud development beyond that associated with current shra. As shortwave amplifies se into Great Lakes region tonight, expect the upstream shra to continue developing/expanding in coverage while spreading across the fcst area. Increasing upper divergence within the left exit of the upper jet will be a major contributor to the expanding shra. Given the forcing, some of the higher qpf model solutions may be on the right track. So, there could be some local 0.5 to 1 inch rainfall amounts tonight, but in general, 0.25 to 0.5 inches should be the rule. With axis of elevated instability aloft (potentially several hundred j/kg) also translating at least as far e as central Upper MI, will likely see a few tsra as well tonight. Sfc low pres over nw MN will track ese across far northern WI and/or western thru s central Upper MI tonight/early Fri. With the rainfall occurring over Lake Superior and as winds swing around to a ne to n direction with passage of the low, will likely see considerable upslope stratus/some high elevation fog develop later tonight. These low clouds may then go on to plague the w and n well into Fri aftn. Upsloping may also result in some -shra/-dz lingering for much of the morning. If the low clouds hang on thru Fri across the w and n, temps may not get above 60F. For now, have fcst high temps in the 60s across the board, coolest w and n and warmest s central. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 435 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2019 Models indicate that a gradually progressive pattern will prevail. A mid/upper level ridge from the Southern Plains through the Rockies will give way to lowering heights into early next week as a strong shortwave moves in from the Pacific this weekend. As a result, Northwest flow through the Great Lakes with mainly below normal temperatures will give way to southwest flow next week bringing a warm front a more widespread precipitation toward the region. Friday night, a strong shortwave moving through nrn Ontario just north of Lake Superior will drag a weak trough/front through the northern Great Lakes. Although the stronger forcing will remain well to the north, some light rain showers or sprinkles may be possible with the front, mainly through the north. Sat-Sun, Some lake enhanced rain may be possible early Saturday with favorable sfc-750 mb moisture and cyclonic low level flow. A secondary cold front is expected to move through the area late Saturday dropping 850 mb temps into the 2C to 4C range. With lake temps in the 13C-15C range, instability will be marginal to support any lake effect with increasingly anticyclonic flow. Surface high pressure will continue to dominate through Sunday with seasonably cool air as winds slowly veer to the northeast. Enough low level moisture will linger to keep skies mostly cloudy through the period. Mon-Tue, A warm front approaching the area by late Monday into Tuesday should bring widespread rain into the region. There is more uncertainty with the details regarding sfc low pressure development and pcpn timing/intensity as the GFS/GEFS/GEM suggest that a stronger shrtwv and sfc low will move through to the west of Upper Michigan compared to the ECMWF. Some thunder may also be possibly by Tuesday as moisture/instability spread to the northeast. PWAT values climbing at or above will also support the potential for heavy rain. Wed-Thu, Models consensus would push the higher pcpn chances east of the area by Wed. Cooler air with ne to e flow is expected to dominate the region as sfc high pressure builds southward from northern Manitoba and northern Ontario. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 630 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2019 VFR conditions will prevail into the evening at all sites. The shra along with development of upsloping winds at the terminals will likely result in conditions falling thru MVFR to LIFR. Gradual improvement is anticipated late Fri morning/early aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 410 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2019 Low pres tracking from nw MN across far northern WI/southern Upper MI tonight/early Fri will result in increasing easterly winds backing northerly tonight/early Fri across Lake Superior. There may be a period of 25-30kt wind gusts across western Lake Superior tonight as the low passes by the area. Winds will then fall back blo 20kt across the lake on Fri. Passage of a cold front will then bring increasing NW winds late Fri night/Sat. Expect the strongest winds over the e half of the lake where gusts may reach 25-30kt on Sat. Winds will diminish for Sun, but with sfc high pres passing by just n of Lake Superior, E to NE winds up to 20kt will be possible over far western Lake Superior. Winds will likely be on the increase later Mon into Tue as the high pres departs and low pres tracks e toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. Not out of the question that there could be a period of easterly gales as the low approaches. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weather system will bring an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms to the region this evening into Friday. Warmer and drier weather is expected Saturday. Then expect a major pattern change as cool and unsettled weather will arrive on Sunday and is expected to linger through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday: A series of disturbances will move across the area this afternoon through Friday. The first is moving in now bringing an increase in clouds. Radar is picking up on some returns across the eastern Columbia Basin into the Palouse, LC Valley and Camas Prairie. Think this is mainly moistening the atmosphere for later, but we could see some sprinkles or very light rain out of it. The next round will move in after sunset. This stuff is currently down in southern and central Oregon and it producing thunderstorms. The elevated instability isn`t super impressive, but do have slight chance mentioned overnight for portions of central WA into the ID Panhandle. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day on Friday. The best threat of thunder looks to remain south of our forecast area, but do have a slight chance mentioned extending from Moses Lake east into the Idaho Panhandle...mainly south of I-90 tonight and Friday. Several changes made to the forecast for the next 24 hrs. First was added some wind gusts overnight down in the Blue Mountains towards the LC Valley, Palouse and Camas Prairie as this is the best area for thunderstorms. The HRRR has shown a weak gust front the last several runs. Second change was to increase overnight lows given the extensive cloud cover expected. Third was decreased our high temps for Friday given the cloud cover and rain, especially for the eastern third of WA and the entire north ID Panhandle. /Nisbet Friday night and Saturday...High pressure will rapidly build in from the west Friday evening. Up-sloping flow into the Idaho Panhandle mountains will keep a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the forecast through the evening. This will be followed by a quick warming and drying trend through the day on Saturday. This will be short lived, however, as another storm system will be right behind. Expect on warn and dry day with temperatures rebounding 5-10 degrees over Friday. Saturday night through Wednesday...We are looking at a major pattern change through this period. A fast moving storm system will move into the region Saturday night and break down the weak ridge. A secondary low will follow on Sunday night. This low will then get reinforced by multiple short wave disturbances moving through the trough through about Wednesday. This will open the door for several days of cool, wet, and unsettled weather. Temperatures are expected to be 2-3 degrees on the cool side of normal with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. We can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms each day Sunday through Tuesday. The showers will get pushed back into the northern mountains on Wednesday. Moisture is plentiful and this will result in a widespread wetting rain, with moderate rain in the mountains. Thursday...Once more high pressure will build into the region on Thursday. Again this will be short lived as another storm system looks to move into the region on Friday. This will result in one warm and dry day, before the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases again on Friday. Tobin && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Challenging forecast through the period as moisture moves up from the south overnight into Friday. All sites should remain VFR under light northerly winds through the bulk of the overnight hours. Currently mid level moisture will be exiting the region early this evening with mere sprinkles. Waiting for the next band of convection overnight with light showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms. Some local gusts winds are possible especially near KPUW and KLWS. By early morning, the showers become more stratiform with the potential of MVFR conditions, especially at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW. Anticipate improving conditions from west to east through the afternoon. /rfox. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 61 72 54 81 56 73 / 80 90 10 0 20 40 Coeur d`Alene 61 67 52 79 55 71 / 80 90 10 0 20 50 Pullman 60 70 51 81 51 69 / 70 80 10 0 30 50 Lewiston 68 77 61 87 62 75 / 70 60 20 0 40 50 Colville 57 77 46 85 48 80 / 40 50 0 10 30 50 Sandpoint 57 66 50 80 53 72 / 60 80 10 0 20 60 Kellogg 60 64 56 78 58 69 / 70 100 30 0 20 60 Moses Lake 64 82 56 86 58 80 / 40 30 0 10 40 30 Wenatchee 69 84 63 84 64 79 / 20 30 0 10 30 20 Omak 63 83 58 86 60 79 / 30 20 0 10 30 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$