Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/31/19
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms are scattered over areas along and east of
the central mountain chain of New Mexico early this evening. Storms
will continue to slowly drift to the south and southeast, gradually
decreasing into the late evening and early morning hours just after
midnight. Storms in northeastern to east central parts of the state
could be strong with hail, gusty downburst winds, and heavy
downpours. A few storms are also found in west central parts of the
state, however these are much higher-based, posing more wind impact
than precipitation due to dry air beneath cloud bases. Outside of
the heavier downpours, VFR conditions will prevail, and the hot
temperatures will keep high density altitudes in place, creating
difficult ascents for some aircraft. Thunderstorms will impact
similar areas Saturday afternoon.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft anchored well west of New Mexico will shift
eastward to the Four Corners region on Saturday. The upper level
high will then meander over southern Colorado or northern New Mexico
much of next week. Moisture levels or fuel for thunderstorms will
briefly trend upward to near seasonal levels this holiday weekend
resulting in an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage as
compared to recent days. Storm chances will then gradually dwindle
beginning Tuesday. Daytime highs will average 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Surface boundary stretching from near Raton/east slopes of the
northern Sangre de Cristos southeastward to south of Clayton should become
an increasingly important player remainder of the afternoon into the
evening. Currently, MLCAPE values generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg
range along/north of this boundary within a respectable low level
upslope regime. Modest mid- to upper-level NW flow aloft topping this
low level upslope resulting in 20-25 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. This
environment will be sufficient to support organized storms/isolated
severe into the evening. High-res model suite to include latest HRRR
suggests broken line segments working across the northeast and east-
central plains into the early/mid evening with even the potential
for storms reaching Roswell area after midnight. A later shift may
need to update/freshen PoP across our southeast zones.
Beyond tonight, high pressure aloft centered over southeast
CA/southwest AZ will shift eastward and build back over the Four
Corners through Saturday. Upper level ridge axis will then meander over
southern CO/northern NM much of next week. Precipitable water values
forecast to briefly trend upward and closer to seasonable levels
next 24-48 hours as the Four Corners High reestablishes before
trending back down to below average Tuesday and beyond. As a result,
will continue to show an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage
through the weekend especially for Sunday with a low grade
thunderstorm forecast thereafter. Steering flow will become
increasingly unfavorable for the east with the focus shifting back
to the mountain and west during the extended for meager, daily storm
crops. Another backdoor front next Wed/Thu, perhaps. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest and portions of north central New Mexico will remain hot,
dry and unstable the next couple of days as the upper high moves
from over southern California to near the Four Corners. More above
normal temperatures with a few near-record highs are forecast.
Sufficient moisture will remain in place across roughly the
southeast half of the area for more wetting storms through the
weekend, though coverage will be limited with a fairly small wetting
footprint.
The upper high will then hold on over southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico through at least mid week with limited coverage of
wetting storms and above to well above normal temperatures
persisting. A backdoor front will invade the area late Tuesday and
will replenish moisture for improved humidity leading to a
potentially more active day Wednesday, mainly over northern portions
of the area. 12Z medium range model solutions differ thereafter with
the position and strength of the upper high, with the ECMWF holding
on to an anomalously strong 500mb high center directly overhead
through Friday. 11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
Some lingering low level cloud cover lifting across the CWA with
scattered cumulus clouds expected to continue through the
afternoon ahead of another shortwave that will propagate across
the surface boundary draped across much of the region. Expect
cooler afternoon high temperatures due to being in the cooler air
and lingering cloud cover only reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s
being a far cry from the 90s and 100 degree temperatures from
yesterday. Thunderstorm development looks to be minimal through
the evening developing late tonight and lasting through the
overnight. Coverage looks to be widely scattered with any severe
weather being constrained to the far southwest portions of the
state with the majority being into the panhandles of Oklahoma and
Texas. QPF amounts look to be minimal for much of the CWA less
than an inch being more the further east one goes.
These scattered rain showers and thunderstorms look to push out of
the CWA by the morning timeframe on Saturday to start the weekend
with morning lows mainly in the 60s. Improving sky conditions
with low level stratus in the morning extending into the afternoon
allowing temperatures to be mainly in the 80s under weaker
southeast wind flow. Expect a warming and drying trend heading
into the long term with 90s coming back into the forecast being
above average with no real chances for any precipitation heading
into the new work week and into next weekend. Enjoy what rain one
receives over night because it might be some time before any more
comes to fruition.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
Quiet weather returns to end the weekend and throughout the long
term forecast with no significant precipitation chances are
expected through the next weekend. Upper level ridging builds in
across the Rocky Mountains extending into the western high plains.
A weak shortwave propagates off the Colorado Rockies Tuesday
night but no effects look to affect the CWA with any precipitation
staying in eastern Colorado dissipating after sunset. Otherwise,
expect the aforementioned upper level ridge to be set in place
throughout the entirety of the week with morning low temperatures
mainly in the upper 50s to the 60s with afternoon highs into the
upper 80s and into the 90s for much of the week. The coolest day
will be Wednesday in wake of the shortwave mentioned above
dropping a weak cold front through the area being mostly dry and
cloud free due to the northwest flow aloft.
For some areas, the dry weather pattern will be a welcome relief
with as saturated the ground is with all of the recent rainfall the
past couple of weeks, but for others, rain is still needed for deeper
southwest Kansas south and west of Dodge City and Garden City. The
longer term climate forecasts still sees much of September to be around
average in terms of rainfall and temperatures with no significant
anomalies expected into the fall months.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 508 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
Quiet VFR conditions will continue through this evening, with only
scattered cumulus or mid level clouds. During the 06z-12z Sat time
frame, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm
air advection pattern, supported by a modest low level jet.
Confident that scattered convection will develop late tonight, but
models are all over the place regarding placement. In addition,
timing of initiation could be as late as 09z Sat. Latest HRRR
solutions are preferred, with convection developing along/east of
US 283 around 09z Sat. With the uncertainty, only carried VCTS/CB
in the TAFs, except kept GCK dry. With moist SEly boundary layer
flow continuing overnight, more confident on stratus development
through Saturday morning. Consensus of short term models suggests
IFR stratus ceilings at all terminals through Saturday morning,
and accepted this trend in the TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 82 66 93 / 40 30 20 0
GCK 62 84 64 94 / 40 10 10 0
EHA 62 89 63 94 / 40 10 20 0
LBL 65 86 65 94 / 50 20 20 0
HYS 64 78 64 87 / 50 30 10 0
P28 68 83 67 92 / 50 50 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019
Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast
periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/4-Corners.
Through Tonight: With forcing largely confined to differential
heating and weak low-level upslope flow, expect scattered diurnal
convection to develop along the Colorado Front Range this
afternoon -- progressing E-ESE toward eastern Colorado this
evening. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR suggest
that convection will approach Yuma/Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in
the 00-03Z time frame. Given that convection will approach from
the west after peak heating -- and that persistent stratus has
maintained significant convective inhibition (200-300 J/kg),
marginal instability (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), and atypically weak
DCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) over the Tri-State area this afternoon,
expect convection to weaken and gradually dissipate with eastern
extent invof the CO/KS border this evening -- though elevated
convection may develop in western KS overnight in assoc/w
strengthening low-level warm advection. Aside from some potential
for marginally severe hail associated with any robust elevated
updrafts, severe weather is not anticipated.
Sat-Sat night: The convective forecast in this period will highly
depend on mesoscale features emanating from convection developing
over the region overnight -- and the impact thereof on the
thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area on Saturday.
Low-level warm advection may aid in the development of convection
south of I-70 Saturday evening, however -- significant uncertainty
persists with regard to convective coverage and when/where/if
convection will even develop.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019
We`re looking at a pretty quiet extended forecast with mainly dry
conditions and a brief return to above normal temperatures Sunday
and Monday.
The extended forecast starts out with an upper ridge over the
western U.S. and northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. The
ridge will shift east over the forecast area through the day
Sunday and into Monday. Sunday high temperatures will be in the
low to mid 90s in eastern Colorado, with mid-80s to low 90s
expected in southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. By
Monday, temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Normal temperatures
range from the mid to upper 80s for highs and the mid-50s to low
60s for lows.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday evening will
progress eastward, reaching the Dakotas on Tuesday. Flow will
become west- northwesterly aloft over the Tri-State region. An
isolated shower or storm may be possible in the late
afternoon/early evening timeframe. Temperatures will be on a two-
day cooling trend with highs in the 80s on Tuesday and a few 70s
possible by Wednesday.
Thursday, a weak, quick-moving shortwave trough will move into
the region. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible in
the afternoon or evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019
The 00Z TAF period at MCK and GLD will begin as VFR with a broken
to overcast lower cloud deck with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop after 03Z. As storms diminish between
09-10Z, ceilings will lower to IFR. IFR conditions will continue
through about 18Z, after which ceilings will raise through MVFR to
VFR between 20-22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will continue to sag south across Ohio and
Indiana tonight, crossing the Ohio River as it washes out.
Several weak weather disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley over the weekend and keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area, moreso on Sunday, with smaller
chances on Saturday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Convection has weakened and moved generally south of the ILN CWA
this evening, with just a few showers (and one thunderstorm) still
remaining in the Kentucky counties. The cloud forecast overnight
is a little bit tricky, as drier boundary layer air is filtering
in from the north, but a steady stream of mid and high clouds
is continuing to move in from the WSW. There are still some
patches of low (3kft-5kft) clouds in place as well. Recent HRRR
runs and SREF probabilities are not especially robust in terms
of fog development, but any chance for this to occur looks most
likely in the far southern CWA, where dewpoints are higher and
some clearing still remains. While current trends support
continuing with the going min temp forecast, if the clearing
holds out a little longer in the south, then the northern
Kentucky and south-central Ohio counties may end up more in the
lower to middle 60 than middle to upper 60s.
Previous discussion >
Convection initiated about 2 PM over Franklin/Butler counties
and has not really grown in depth...yet. However, updrafts have
become more numerous during the past hour and expect this trend
to continue through the remainder of the afternoon before
activity peaks around 22Z. This is on the earlier side of the
guidance viewed earlier this morning. Special 30.18Z sounding
which is in support of Dorian modeling also helps paint the
mesoscale picture this afternoon - and this sounding indicated
MLCAPE around 600 J/kg which is substantially less than
objective analysis. Granted, we have likely destabilized some
since the balloon was launched so currently thinking MLCAPE is
around 800-1000 J/Kg. Balloon wind data showed meager low level
shear with the generally unidirectional westerly- northwesterly
flow. Shear is a little better at 3km /~20kts/ and at 6km
/~25kts/ but all of these values are marginal for storm
longevity and organization.
Recent /15Z and 16Z/ HRRR runs had suggested that upscale
growth via cell mergers may produce a swath or two of damaging
winds in the next few hours /before 7 pm/ over portions of
southern Ohio or extreme northern Kentucky, but the 17Z run came
in far less substantial on coverage. This kind of oscillation in
coverage/intensity suggests the background forcing is weak and
that observational trends /radar and satellite/ will be the best
clues to development potential over the next few hours. If we
can get storms to cluster together with time a few reports of
wind damage could occur - but so far the storms have not grown
deep enough for downdrafts to attain much acceleration. In
addition...the DCAPE values of the KILN special sounding are not
impressive - only ~650 j/kg. So it appears that it will be a
little while before the threat for a marginally severe storm or
two will be realized. Also cannot rule a bit of hail despite
overall meager mid level lapse rates - owing moreso to slowly
building instability before convective overturning will win out
by early this evening.
Still think the axis of highest storm coverage is where radar
/and recent GOES satellite with agitated cumulus field/ is
showing updrafts most numerous - from Oxford to Hillsboro and
points south to and across the Ohio River as storms/cold pools
will be coalescing and drifting southeast. Will take some time
for things to fill in but am still thinking a 50-60% coverage
maximum through this corridor through about 01Z when tapering
will begin.
Later in the night - as the cold front sinks further south -
easterly flow will develop north of the boundary. This may
keep stratus locked in after the rains diminish. If this does
not occur, the presence of the low level moisture ribbon may
allow fog to develop. Confidence is not high on this portion of
the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday continues to be a day of overall weak forcing, decent
moisture, and lack of low level focus. The washed out /
decaying front from overnight will be in northern Kentucky and
its low level moisture ribbon may be a focus for a few diurnally
forced showers and storms. The weak MCV from Missouri will be
shearing out / opening up as it moves through the Ohio Valley
with modestly enhanced flow, but little vertical motion. Most
areas will remain dry. A little stronger energy and mean
troughiness approaches Saturday night so increasing rain
chances later Saturday night still looks good.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mean mid level trough, with some weak embedded disturbances, will
traverse east across the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. This
will keep the weather unsettled on Sunday with scattered convection
peaking during the heat of the day and waning overnight. It will be
a little humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will fall
into the mid 60s.
Under a northwest flow aloft, a lingering chance of showers and
storms will continue into Labor Day. Again, warm and humid with highs
in the lower to mid 80s.
Looks like dry weather Monday night into Tuesday before the next
front moves into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low
chances of showers/storms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm and humid Tuesday with drier air moving in behind the front on
Wednesday.
Cooler and less humid weather is expected on Thursday. Highs will be
75 to 80.
For now, the majority of forecast models keep the main effects of
Dorian to our southeast/east as mid level trough and frontal
boundary keep the system away. Dry weather is expected again on
Friday with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation has ended at the TAF sites, leaving VFR conditions
with thick mid level cloud cover. Behind the storms, winds have
shifted to the north, and will continue to shift to the
northeast as the overnight hours progress. There may be some
continued thickening of clouds, but right now it appears that
these will remain VFR. Some fog may be possible at the
Cincinnati TAF sites (most likely at KLUK) but with clouds in
the area, this will be kept to the MVFR category for now.
Additional VFR clouds are expected tomorrow, with ENE winds of
around 10 knots or less. There is a very small chance of
precipitation during the afternoon at KCVG/KLUK but this appears
too low to include in the TAFs for now.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1101 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Most interest is on Hurricane Dorian. See Tropical section below
for how this relates to the Florida Keys.
Even aside from Dorian, weather over the Keys has been
occasionally wet and thundery over the past few days. This has
been aided by broad lift and cyclonic flow within a slowly
westward moving inverted trough over the Keys. The trough axis
this evening is now over the Southeast Gulf, and it will continue
on to the Central Gulf by late Saturday. On the eastern periphery
of the trough, southeast breezes will pick up overnight. This will
increase the moisture transport across the forecast area, while
localized areas of speed convergence will aid in lift. There is
also a TUTT-like upper low west of Andros Island that is enhancing
convection over the eastern Straits of Florida already. Given the
unstable and very moist air mass with steering flow from the
southeast, the oft- seen late night increase in upwind convective
coverage should readily occur overnight. Saturday sunrise will
greet much of the Keys with showers and thunderstorms. Indeed, the
experimental Caribbean HRRR model shows a peak in convective
activity over the Keys from 10z-14z, or 6-10 am. Have bumped PoPs
into the likely category for the overnight period.
Later in the day on Saturday, convective coverage should diminish
as southeast breezes start to diminish and we head to a normal
afternoon minima in activity in southeast flow.
A minor surface ridge axis, perhaps a col, will cross westward
across the Keys late Saturday night or Sunday morning. After that,
the Keys will come under the southwest edge of Dorian`s larger
scale wind flow, resulting at first merely in a turn of our wind
direction out of the west and northwest. At this point, the center
of Dorian will be east of the northern Bahamas. Some part of
Sunday could feature benign, sunny weather. Hurricanes are often
surrounded by a mote of dry sunny weather caused by subsidence
around the storm`s edge. This could end up being the case at some
point on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have picked up this evening on the eastern periphery of an
inverted trough that is exiting off to our west. Will insert the
Small Craft Exercise Caution headline in to some marine zones for
the rest of tonight.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the island chain through
the morning hours, and possibly lasting into the afternoon hours.
The shower and thunderstorm activity could become more numerous
between 10Z and 14Z. Thus, periods of sub VFR conditions can be
expected. Winds will continue at East to east southeast near 10
knots.
&&
.TROPICAL...
At 11 pm, the center of Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is located
about 550 miles due east of Ocean Reef.
The 11 pm NHC advisory continues a trend started earlier today of
slowing the forward progress of Dorian and adjusting the forecast
track further to the north/northeast and more distant from the
Keys. This trend includes the southern edge of the forecast cone,
which now just barely clips the far Upper Keys near Ocean Reef.
Wind speed probabilities for both tropical storm force and
hurricane force winds over the Keys have come down since early
today. However, the probabilities for tropical storm force winds
(39+ mph) still remain significant, most notably for the Upper
Keys. While this overall trend should be encouraging for residents
and visitors in the Keys, it is still too early to take your eye
off this powerful category 4 hurricane.
Should the Keys get tropical storm force winds, the earliest that
such winds would reasonably arrive is Sunday, with Monday being
more likely. Tuesday could very well be the most blustery day.
Dorian`s forecast track to near the east-central Florida
coastline will put us on the southwest side of the storm. With
counter-clockwise flow around the storm, this will result in
strongest winds out of the west-southwest for the Keys.
If winds are strong enough, this will lead to a pile-up of water
along the Bay and Gulf side of the Florida Keys. This effect will
be greatest across the Bayside communities of the Upper Keys.
Compounding the situation, slow moving systems east of Florida
tend to back-up the Gulf Stream. Coastal flooding tends to last
longer than expected when the flow volume of the Gulf Stream is
disrupted. Saltwater flooding of low-lying streets, lots, and
docks across the Florida Keys will range between one to three feet
above mean sea level, Monday through at least Tuesday night. This
is not truly hurricane storm surge but a rather the result of
wind-driven water piling up in Florida Bay, which can act like a
southwest-facing catcher`s mitt.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...Haner
Aviation/Nowcasts....SDR
Data Collection......DR
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
726 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
An upper level disturbance across the nrn Rockies moves east tonight
producing shower and thunderstorm activity across wrn and ncntl
Nebraska. The disturbance should exit the region Saturday morning.
The rapid refresh models and the NAM show moisture increasing
tonight to around 1.50 inches of precipitable water along and east
of highway 83. This moisture is at the lower and upper levels of the
atmosphere. A dry layer is shown in the NAM and RAP model soundings
in the 700-500mb layer which could limit rain chances. POPs for this
forecast are limited to 50 percent because of the dry air in the mid
levels. The RAP and NAM also show elevated instability around 1500
J/KG and K-indices in the 30s tonight which would support
thunderstorms.
The rain forecast tonight and Saturday morning uses the model blend
plus the NAM, RAP, HREF, HRRR models.
The SREF and numerical guidance is suggesting a pretty good fog
chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dew points rise into the
60s with south winds underway throughout the day Saturday. The NAM
suggests some dry air aloft at 850-700mb which should allow for
radiation. Areas of fog are in place Sunday morning.
The temperature forecast uses the guidance blend plus bias
correction for lows in the 50s tonight, highs in the 70s to lower
80s Saturday and lows around 60 Sunday morning. Bias correction
raised highs and lows a degree or two to the temperature
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
The model generated temperature forecast Monday continues to perk up
with highs predicted in the upper 80s across ncntl Nebraska where
humid air will reside to mid 90s across parts of western Nebraska
where a dry line surge will take place Monday afternoon. This is
close to the NAM model which suggested a few upper 90s across the
eastern Panhandle and this is consistent with h700mb rising to
around 16C.
Some of the models such as the NAM and GFS suggested isolated
thunderstorms Sunday evening as warm air aloft begins to surge into
ncntl Nebraska. This is entirely possible given the steepening lapse
rates and increasing instability aloft.
A fairly strong cold front will move through Nebraska Monday night
and Tuesday cooling highs into the 70s. The forecast is dry with the
front. The better forcing and instability will reside across SD.
Just an isolated shower chance is in place Tuesday night through
Friday. The dynamics are available but moisture is absent until
Thursday. Temperatures remain cool until Thursday with highs in the
70s. Meaningful rainfall might have to wait until Friday or later.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
Widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings are expected tonight into
at least the first half of Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also expected. Winds will be from the southeast
at around 10 kt.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1022 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019
.UPDATE...
One lone area of thunderstorms is still ongoing over Southwest
Arkansas, but this activity should dissipate within the next
couple of hours. Short-range model guidance continues to show good
agreement regarding the development of another MCS along a cold
front over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas after midnight
tonight. PoPs were adjusted slightly higher in the 06z-12z time
frame based on slightly increased confidence.
Updated products have already been sent.
CN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/
AVIATION...
For the 31/00z TAFs, fairly robust thunderstorms associated with
a decaying convective complex will persist across portions of East
Texas and possibly extreme Northwest Louisiana between KGGG and
KSHV for the first few hours of the period. Additional diurnally
driven convection associated with the afternoon sea breeze over
Deep East Texas should also gradually dissipate. Model guidance
suggest another complex of thunderstorms will develop after 31/06z
over Northeast Texas and Southeast Oklahoma, which will then
slowly move south and southwest, finally exiting the area around
noon local time Saturday. KTYR and KGGG may be affected by this
next complex if it develops.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail. Some patchy
fog cannot be completely ruled out overnight at terminals that
received rain during the previous 24 hours.
CN
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
Isold to sct convection ongoing across parts of the region will
continue through sunset. Of greater concern, however, is the
sub-severe MCS across N TX. The latest HRRR run seems to indicate
that it will not make much if any ewd progress today before
dissipating.
Our region remains at the outlet of the upper ridge to our w and
a trof over the Mid and Upper MS River Valley, and this has set
up a sort of quasi-nw flow scenario that would be more common to
us during early June. A good bit of uncertainty exists, as no
model, even the hi-res output, is handling this setup well. There
do, however, seem to be some signals that we could see a repeat
of last night, so have maintained some PoPs across our nw after
midnight tonight through much of Saturday.
For temps, have trended near and just below the NBM, and even
lower across our I-30 and nwd areas due to the possibility of
residual morning convection. /12/
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/
Upper-level ridge centered across the Texas Panhandle to become
firmly established across the region by Sunday and remain the
dominant weather feature through next week. With upper-ridge in
place, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to track northward across the
east coast from mid to late week providing very little impact to the
ArkLaTex. Temperatures going into early September will remain in the
mid to upper 90s areawide with very little precipitation expected.
/05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 69 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 70 91 70 94 / 20 30 10 10
TXK 70 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10
ELD 69 93 69 95 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 75 92 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
GGG 74 95 73 97 / 20 20 10 10
LFK 74 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
09/50