Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/31/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Showers and thunderstorms are scattered over areas along and east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico early this evening. Storms will continue to slowly drift to the south and southeast, gradually decreasing into the late evening and early morning hours just after midnight. Storms in northeastern to east central parts of the state could be strong with hail, gusty downburst winds, and heavy downpours. A few storms are also found in west central parts of the state, however these are much higher-based, posing more wind impact than precipitation due to dry air beneath cloud bases. Outside of the heavier downpours, VFR conditions will prevail, and the hot temperatures will keep high density altitudes in place, creating difficult ascents for some aircraft. Thunderstorms will impact similar areas Saturday afternoon. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft anchored well west of New Mexico will shift eastward to the Four Corners region on Saturday. The upper level high will then meander over southern Colorado or northern New Mexico much of next week. Moisture levels or fuel for thunderstorms will briefly trend upward to near seasonal levels this holiday weekend resulting in an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage as compared to recent days. Storm chances will then gradually dwindle beginning Tuesday. Daytime highs will average 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. && .DISCUSSION... Surface boundary stretching from near Raton/east slopes of the northern Sangre de Cristos southeastward to south of Clayton should become an increasingly important player remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Currently, MLCAPE values generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range along/north of this boundary within a respectable low level upslope regime. Modest mid- to upper-level NW flow aloft topping this low level upslope resulting in 20-25 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. This environment will be sufficient to support organized storms/isolated severe into the evening. High-res model suite to include latest HRRR suggests broken line segments working across the northeast and east- central plains into the early/mid evening with even the potential for storms reaching Roswell area after midnight. A later shift may need to update/freshen PoP across our southeast zones. Beyond tonight, high pressure aloft centered over southeast CA/southwest AZ will shift eastward and build back over the Four Corners through Saturday. Upper level ridge axis will then meander over southern CO/northern NM much of next week. Precipitable water values forecast to briefly trend upward and closer to seasonable levels next 24-48 hours as the Four Corners High reestablishes before trending back down to below average Tuesday and beyond. As a result, will continue to show an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage through the weekend especially for Sunday with a low grade thunderstorm forecast thereafter. Steering flow will become increasingly unfavorable for the east with the focus shifting back to the mountain and west during the extended for meager, daily storm crops. Another backdoor front next Wed/Thu, perhaps. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... Northwest and portions of north central New Mexico will remain hot, dry and unstable the next couple of days as the upper high moves from over southern California to near the Four Corners. More above normal temperatures with a few near-record highs are forecast. Sufficient moisture will remain in place across roughly the southeast half of the area for more wetting storms through the weekend, though coverage will be limited with a fairly small wetting footprint. The upper high will then hold on over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico through at least mid week with limited coverage of wetting storms and above to well above normal temperatures persisting. A backdoor front will invade the area late Tuesday and will replenish moisture for improved humidity leading to a potentially more active day Wednesday, mainly over northern portions of the area. 12Z medium range model solutions differ thereafter with the position and strength of the upper high, with the ECMWF holding on to an anomalously strong 500mb high center directly overhead through Friday. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Some lingering low level cloud cover lifting across the CWA with scattered cumulus clouds expected to continue through the afternoon ahead of another shortwave that will propagate across the surface boundary draped across much of the region. Expect cooler afternoon high temperatures due to being in the cooler air and lingering cloud cover only reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s being a far cry from the 90s and 100 degree temperatures from yesterday. Thunderstorm development looks to be minimal through the evening developing late tonight and lasting through the overnight. Coverage looks to be widely scattered with any severe weather being constrained to the far southwest portions of the state with the majority being into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. QPF amounts look to be minimal for much of the CWA less than an inch being more the further east one goes. These scattered rain showers and thunderstorms look to push out of the CWA by the morning timeframe on Saturday to start the weekend with morning lows mainly in the 60s. Improving sky conditions with low level stratus in the morning extending into the afternoon allowing temperatures to be mainly in the 80s under weaker southeast wind flow. Expect a warming and drying trend heading into the long term with 90s coming back into the forecast being above average with no real chances for any precipitation heading into the new work week and into next weekend. Enjoy what rain one receives over night because it might be some time before any more comes to fruition. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Quiet weather returns to end the weekend and throughout the long term forecast with no significant precipitation chances are expected through the next weekend. Upper level ridging builds in across the Rocky Mountains extending into the western high plains. A weak shortwave propagates off the Colorado Rockies Tuesday night but no effects look to affect the CWA with any precipitation staying in eastern Colorado dissipating after sunset. Otherwise, expect the aforementioned upper level ridge to be set in place throughout the entirety of the week with morning low temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to the 60s with afternoon highs into the upper 80s and into the 90s for much of the week. The coolest day will be Wednesday in wake of the shortwave mentioned above dropping a weak cold front through the area being mostly dry and cloud free due to the northwest flow aloft. For some areas, the dry weather pattern will be a welcome relief with as saturated the ground is with all of the recent rainfall the past couple of weeks, but for others, rain is still needed for deeper southwest Kansas south and west of Dodge City and Garden City. The longer term climate forecasts still sees much of September to be around average in terms of rainfall and temperatures with no significant anomalies expected into the fall months. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 508 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Quiet VFR conditions will continue through this evening, with only scattered cumulus or mid level clouds. During the 06z-12z Sat time frame, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm air advection pattern, supported by a modest low level jet. Confident that scattered convection will develop late tonight, but models are all over the place regarding placement. In addition, timing of initiation could be as late as 09z Sat. Latest HRRR solutions are preferred, with convection developing along/east of US 283 around 09z Sat. With the uncertainty, only carried VCTS/CB in the TAFs, except kept GCK dry. With moist SEly boundary layer flow continuing overnight, more confident on stratus development through Saturday morning. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus ceilings at all terminals through Saturday morning, and accepted this trend in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 82 66 93 / 40 30 20 0 GCK 62 84 64 94 / 40 10 10 0 EHA 62 89 63 94 / 40 10 20 0 LBL 65 86 65 94 / 50 20 20 0 HYS 64 78 64 87 / 50 30 10 0 P28 68 83 67 92 / 50 50 30 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Lowe AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners. Through Tonight: With forcing largely confined to differential heating and weak low-level upslope flow, expect scattered diurnal convection to develop along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon -- progressing E-ESE toward eastern Colorado this evening. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR suggest that convection will approach Yuma/Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in the 00-03Z time frame. Given that convection will approach from the west after peak heating -- and that persistent stratus has maintained significant convective inhibition (200-300 J/kg), marginal instability (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), and atypically weak DCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) over the Tri-State area this afternoon, expect convection to weaken and gradually dissipate with eastern extent invof the CO/KS border this evening -- though elevated convection may develop in western KS overnight in assoc/w strengthening low-level warm advection. Aside from some potential for marginally severe hail associated with any robust elevated updrafts, severe weather is not anticipated. Sat-Sat night: The convective forecast in this period will highly depend on mesoscale features emanating from convection developing over the region overnight -- and the impact thereof on the thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area on Saturday. Low-level warm advection may aid in the development of convection south of I-70 Saturday evening, however -- significant uncertainty persists with regard to convective coverage and when/where/if convection will even develop. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 We`re looking at a pretty quiet extended forecast with mainly dry conditions and a brief return to above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. The extended forecast starts out with an upper ridge over the western U.S. and northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. The ridge will shift east over the forecast area through the day Sunday and into Monday. Sunday high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s in eastern Colorado, with mid-80s to low 90s expected in southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. By Monday, temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Normal temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s for highs and the mid-50s to low 60s for lows. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday evening will progress eastward, reaching the Dakotas on Tuesday. Flow will become west- northwesterly aloft over the Tri-State region. An isolated shower or storm may be possible in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. Temperatures will be on a two- day cooling trend with highs in the 80s on Tuesday and a few 70s possible by Wednesday. Thursday, a weak, quick-moving shortwave trough will move into the region. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible in the afternoon or evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 552 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The 00Z TAF period at MCK and GLD will begin as VFR with a broken to overcast lower cloud deck with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop after 03Z. As storms diminish between 09-10Z, ceilings will lower to IFR. IFR conditions will continue through about 18Z, after which ceilings will raise through MVFR to VFR between 20-22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...LOCKHART
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will continue to sag south across Ohio and Indiana tonight, crossing the Ohio River as it washes out. Several weak weather disturbances will move through the Ohio Valley over the weekend and keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area, moreso on Sunday, with smaller chances on Saturday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Convection has weakened and moved generally south of the ILN CWA this evening, with just a few showers (and one thunderstorm) still remaining in the Kentucky counties. The cloud forecast overnight is a little bit tricky, as drier boundary layer air is filtering in from the north, but a steady stream of mid and high clouds is continuing to move in from the WSW. There are still some patches of low (3kft-5kft) clouds in place as well. Recent HRRR runs and SREF probabilities are not especially robust in terms of fog development, but any chance for this to occur looks most likely in the far southern CWA, where dewpoints are higher and some clearing still remains. While current trends support continuing with the going min temp forecast, if the clearing holds out a little longer in the south, then the northern Kentucky and south-central Ohio counties may end up more in the lower to middle 60 than middle to upper 60s. Previous discussion > Convection initiated about 2 PM over Franklin/Butler counties and has not really grown in depth...yet. However, updrafts have become more numerous during the past hour and expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the afternoon before activity peaks around 22Z. This is on the earlier side of the guidance viewed earlier this morning. Special 30.18Z sounding which is in support of Dorian modeling also helps paint the mesoscale picture this afternoon - and this sounding indicated MLCAPE around 600 J/kg which is substantially less than objective analysis. Granted, we have likely destabilized some since the balloon was launched so currently thinking MLCAPE is around 800-1000 J/Kg. Balloon wind data showed meager low level shear with the generally unidirectional westerly- northwesterly flow. Shear is a little better at 3km /~20kts/ and at 6km /~25kts/ but all of these values are marginal for storm longevity and organization. Recent /15Z and 16Z/ HRRR runs had suggested that upscale growth via cell mergers may produce a swath or two of damaging winds in the next few hours /before 7 pm/ over portions of southern Ohio or extreme northern Kentucky, but the 17Z run came in far less substantial on coverage. This kind of oscillation in coverage/intensity suggests the background forcing is weak and that observational trends /radar and satellite/ will be the best clues to development potential over the next few hours. If we can get storms to cluster together with time a few reports of wind damage could occur - but so far the storms have not grown deep enough for downdrafts to attain much acceleration. In addition...the DCAPE values of the KILN special sounding are not impressive - only ~650 j/kg. So it appears that it will be a little while before the threat for a marginally severe storm or two will be realized. Also cannot rule a bit of hail despite overall meager mid level lapse rates - owing moreso to slowly building instability before convective overturning will win out by early this evening. Still think the axis of highest storm coverage is where radar /and recent GOES satellite with agitated cumulus field/ is showing updrafts most numerous - from Oxford to Hillsboro and points south to and across the Ohio River as storms/cold pools will be coalescing and drifting southeast. Will take some time for things to fill in but am still thinking a 50-60% coverage maximum through this corridor through about 01Z when tapering will begin. Later in the night - as the cold front sinks further south - easterly flow will develop north of the boundary. This may keep stratus locked in after the rains diminish. If this does not occur, the presence of the low level moisture ribbon may allow fog to develop. Confidence is not high on this portion of the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Saturday continues to be a day of overall weak forcing, decent moisture, and lack of low level focus. The washed out / decaying front from overnight will be in northern Kentucky and its low level moisture ribbon may be a focus for a few diurnally forced showers and storms. The weak MCV from Missouri will be shearing out / opening up as it moves through the Ohio Valley with modestly enhanced flow, but little vertical motion. Most areas will remain dry. A little stronger energy and mean troughiness approaches Saturday night so increasing rain chances later Saturday night still looks good. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mean mid level trough, with some weak embedded disturbances, will traverse east across the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. This will keep the weather unsettled on Sunday with scattered convection peaking during the heat of the day and waning overnight. It will be a little humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will fall into the mid 60s. Under a northwest flow aloft, a lingering chance of showers and storms will continue into Labor Day. Again, warm and humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Looks like dry weather Monday night into Tuesday before the next front moves into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low chances of showers/storms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm and humid Tuesday with drier air moving in behind the front on Wednesday. Cooler and less humid weather is expected on Thursday. Highs will be 75 to 80. For now, the majority of forecast models keep the main effects of Dorian to our southeast/east as mid level trough and frontal boundary keep the system away. Dry weather is expected again on Friday with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation has ended at the TAF sites, leaving VFR conditions with thick mid level cloud cover. Behind the storms, winds have shifted to the north, and will continue to shift to the northeast as the overnight hours progress. There may be some continued thickening of clouds, but right now it appears that these will remain VFR. Some fog may be possible at the Cincinnati TAF sites (most likely at KLUK) but with clouds in the area, this will be kept to the MVFR category for now. Additional VFR clouds are expected tomorrow, with ENE winds of around 10 knots or less. There is a very small chance of precipitation during the afternoon at KCVG/KLUK but this appears too low to include in the TAFs for now. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1101 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .DISCUSSION... Most interest is on Hurricane Dorian. See Tropical section below for how this relates to the Florida Keys. Even aside from Dorian, weather over the Keys has been occasionally wet and thundery over the past few days. This has been aided by broad lift and cyclonic flow within a slowly westward moving inverted trough over the Keys. The trough axis this evening is now over the Southeast Gulf, and it will continue on to the Central Gulf by late Saturday. On the eastern periphery of the trough, southeast breezes will pick up overnight. This will increase the moisture transport across the forecast area, while localized areas of speed convergence will aid in lift. There is also a TUTT-like upper low west of Andros Island that is enhancing convection over the eastern Straits of Florida already. Given the unstable and very moist air mass with steering flow from the southeast, the oft- seen late night increase in upwind convective coverage should readily occur overnight. Saturday sunrise will greet much of the Keys with showers and thunderstorms. Indeed, the experimental Caribbean HRRR model shows a peak in convective activity over the Keys from 10z-14z, or 6-10 am. Have bumped PoPs into the likely category for the overnight period. Later in the day on Saturday, convective coverage should diminish as southeast breezes start to diminish and we head to a normal afternoon minima in activity in southeast flow. A minor surface ridge axis, perhaps a col, will cross westward across the Keys late Saturday night or Sunday morning. After that, the Keys will come under the southwest edge of Dorian`s larger scale wind flow, resulting at first merely in a turn of our wind direction out of the west and northwest. At this point, the center of Dorian will be east of the northern Bahamas. Some part of Sunday could feature benign, sunny weather. Hurricanes are often surrounded by a mote of dry sunny weather caused by subsidence around the storm`s edge. This could end up being the case at some point on Sunday. && .MARINE... Winds have picked up this evening on the eastern periphery of an inverted trough that is exiting off to our west. Will insert the Small Craft Exercise Caution headline in to some marine zones for the rest of tonight. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the island chain through the morning hours, and possibly lasting into the afternoon hours. The shower and thunderstorm activity could become more numerous between 10Z and 14Z. Thus, periods of sub VFR conditions can be expected. Winds will continue at East to east southeast near 10 knots. && .TROPICAL... At 11 pm, the center of Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is located about 550 miles due east of Ocean Reef. The 11 pm NHC advisory continues a trend started earlier today of slowing the forward progress of Dorian and adjusting the forecast track further to the north/northeast and more distant from the Keys. This trend includes the southern edge of the forecast cone, which now just barely clips the far Upper Keys near Ocean Reef. Wind speed probabilities for both tropical storm force and hurricane force winds over the Keys have come down since early today. However, the probabilities for tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) still remain significant, most notably for the Upper Keys. While this overall trend should be encouraging for residents and visitors in the Keys, it is still too early to take your eye off this powerful category 4 hurricane. Should the Keys get tropical storm force winds, the earliest that such winds would reasonably arrive is Sunday, with Monday being more likely. Tuesday could very well be the most blustery day. Dorian`s forecast track to near the east-central Florida coastline will put us on the southwest side of the storm. With counter-clockwise flow around the storm, this will result in strongest winds out of the west-southwest for the Keys. If winds are strong enough, this will lead to a pile-up of water along the Bay and Gulf side of the Florida Keys. This effect will be greatest across the Bayside communities of the Upper Keys. Compounding the situation, slow moving systems east of Florida tend to back-up the Gulf Stream. Coastal flooding tends to last longer than expected when the flow volume of the Gulf Stream is disrupted. Saltwater flooding of low-lying streets, lots, and docks across the Florida Keys will range between one to three feet above mean sea level, Monday through at least Tuesday night. This is not truly hurricane storm surge but a rather the result of wind-driven water piling up in Florida Bay, which can act like a southwest-facing catcher`s mitt. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Haner Aviation/Nowcasts....SDR Data Collection......DR Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
726 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 An upper level disturbance across the nrn Rockies moves east tonight producing shower and thunderstorm activity across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The disturbance should exit the region Saturday morning. The rapid refresh models and the NAM show moisture increasing tonight to around 1.50 inches of precipitable water along and east of highway 83. This moisture is at the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere. A dry layer is shown in the NAM and RAP model soundings in the 700-500mb layer which could limit rain chances. POPs for this forecast are limited to 50 percent because of the dry air in the mid levels. The RAP and NAM also show elevated instability around 1500 J/KG and K-indices in the 30s tonight which would support thunderstorms. The rain forecast tonight and Saturday morning uses the model blend plus the NAM, RAP, HREF, HRRR models. The SREF and numerical guidance is suggesting a pretty good fog chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dew points rise into the 60s with south winds underway throughout the day Saturday. The NAM suggests some dry air aloft at 850-700mb which should allow for radiation. Areas of fog are in place Sunday morning. The temperature forecast uses the guidance blend plus bias correction for lows in the 50s tonight, highs in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday and lows around 60 Sunday morning. Bias correction raised highs and lows a degree or two to the temperature forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The model generated temperature forecast Monday continues to perk up with highs predicted in the upper 80s across ncntl Nebraska where humid air will reside to mid 90s across parts of western Nebraska where a dry line surge will take place Monday afternoon. This is close to the NAM model which suggested a few upper 90s across the eastern Panhandle and this is consistent with h700mb rising to around 16C. Some of the models such as the NAM and GFS suggested isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening as warm air aloft begins to surge into ncntl Nebraska. This is entirely possible given the steepening lapse rates and increasing instability aloft. A fairly strong cold front will move through Nebraska Monday night and Tuesday cooling highs into the 70s. The forecast is dry with the front. The better forcing and instability will reside across SD. Just an isolated shower chance is in place Tuesday night through Friday. The dynamics are available but moisture is absent until Thursday. Temperatures remain cool until Thursday with highs in the 70s. Meaningful rainfall might have to wait until Friday or later. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings are expected tonight into at least the first half of Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. Winds will be from the southeast at around 10 kt. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1022 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .UPDATE... One lone area of thunderstorms is still ongoing over Southwest Arkansas, but this activity should dissipate within the next couple of hours. Short-range model guidance continues to show good agreement regarding the development of another MCS along a cold front over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas after midnight tonight. PoPs were adjusted slightly higher in the 06z-12z time frame based on slightly increased confidence. Updated products have already been sent. CN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ AVIATION... For the 31/00z TAFs, fairly robust thunderstorms associated with a decaying convective complex will persist across portions of East Texas and possibly extreme Northwest Louisiana between KGGG and KSHV for the first few hours of the period. Additional diurnally driven convection associated with the afternoon sea breeze over Deep East Texas should also gradually dissipate. Model guidance suggest another complex of thunderstorms will develop after 31/06z over Northeast Texas and Southeast Oklahoma, which will then slowly move south and southwest, finally exiting the area around noon local time Saturday. KTYR and KGGG may be affected by this next complex if it develops. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail. Some patchy fog cannot be completely ruled out overnight at terminals that received rain during the previous 24 hours. CN PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/ Isold to sct convection ongoing across parts of the region will continue through sunset. Of greater concern, however, is the sub-severe MCS across N TX. The latest HRRR run seems to indicate that it will not make much if any ewd progress today before dissipating. Our region remains at the outlet of the upper ridge to our w and a trof over the Mid and Upper MS River Valley, and this has set up a sort of quasi-nw flow scenario that would be more common to us during early June. A good bit of uncertainty exists, as no model, even the hi-res output, is handling this setup well. There do, however, seem to be some signals that we could see a repeat of last night, so have maintained some PoPs across our nw after midnight tonight through much of Saturday. For temps, have trended near and just below the NBM, and even lower across our I-30 and nwd areas due to the possibility of residual morning convection. /12/ LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/ Upper-level ridge centered across the Texas Panhandle to become firmly established across the region by Sunday and remain the dominant weather feature through next week. With upper-ridge in place, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to track northward across the east coast from mid to late week providing very little impact to the ArkLaTex. Temperatures going into early September will remain in the mid to upper 90s areawide with very little precipitation expected. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 MLU 69 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 10 DEQ 70 91 70 94 / 20 30 10 10 TXK 70 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 69 93 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 75 92 74 95 / 10 20 10 10 GGG 74 95 73 97 / 20 20 10 10 LFK 74 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/50