Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/29/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
923 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 As of 02 UTC, the surface cold front is roughly along a Minot to Watford City line and is on track to reach roughly the Bismarck to Hettinger corridor by 06 UTC. North winds have gusted to ~30 kt for about an hour behind the frontal passage in northwestern ND, as expected. Recent HRRR guidance captures both the timing and magnitude of this relatively brief increase in winds that`s being driven by low-level cold air advection and isallobaric forcing in the immediate wake of the frontal zone, so we relied on its output to make minor changes to hourly wind forecasts through about 07 UTC with this update cycle. We still believe low-level decoupling and related increases in boundary layer static stability prior to frontal passage will reduce wind potential with both time and southeastward extent. Otherwise, radar imagery reveals high-based, post-frontal showers in the north and that activity was simply extrapolated southeast toward Harvey and Carrington before exiting the area by about 06 UTC. Midlevel lapse rates are only around 6 C/km, and combined with lackluster tropospheric moisture content as exemplified by PWATs of 1.00 inches or less, bouyancy appears too limited for lightning production with this activity. UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Western and central ND remains in the pre-frontal warm sector as of 23 UTC, with the surface cold frontal zone near a Brandon, MB, to Estevan, SK, line at this hour. Modest pressure rises on the order of 1-2 mb/3 hour are being observed behind the front, but observed surface winds sustained in the 15-20 kt range have been common with frontal passage. Given that and the front`s expected progression through northwestern ND by 03 UTC -- close enough to the diurnal heating cycle that the boundary layer will still be relatively well-mixed -- we increased wind speeds into that range in that area with this update. Further southeast, the boundary layer will have more time to decouple prior to frontal passage, and low-level cold air advection behind the front is forecast to diminish with time per guidance including recent RAP cycles. Thus, we gradually weighted the wind forecast back toward the lower- speed multi-model consensus after 06 UTC. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to reflect observed trends and near-term bias- corrected NBM guidance through the evening with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Small precipitation chances, breezy and cooler conditions highlight the short term forecast. Low pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will track southeast across southern Manitoba tonight, dragging a cold front through western and central ND. There have been some showers across southern Saskatchewan today with a shower currently in Regina. Latest iterations of CAMS have been pretty consistent in bringing and area of showers across the northern tier counties this evening, associated with the frontal boundary. We introduced some small pops utilizing a blend of short term guidance. QPF is expected to be very light with most areas seeing only trace amounts if anything, given the dry lower atmosphere. Expect less clouds and no precipitation central and south tonight, but there may be a temporary spike in winds across the forecast area behind the cold front, as it sweeps southeast across the state. Winds will remain breezy along and east of the Highway 83 corridor through the day. After morning lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s, look for cool afternoon highs Thursday ranging from the mid 60s north to lower 70s south. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Generally quiet weather is expected early in the weekend with only hit and miss showers Friday and Saturday. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day. Sunday and Monday we see a building upper ridge trying to push into the High Plains, this should bring increasing temperatures, especially west. In addition, there will be a better chance of thunderstorms with daytime heating ahead of a Northern High Plains lee side trough, combined with shortwave energy propagating through the mean upper ridge. A quick cooldown Tuesday with dry conditions behind a northern stream shortwave. A stronger upper level system tries working it`s way through through the mean ridge, possibly bringing a better chance of thunderstorms by the end of the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the 00 UTC TAF cycle. A cold front will move southeast across western and central ND tonight, with a shift to north-northwest winds, which will gust to around 25 kt for an hour or two behind the frontal passage in parts of the area. Low-level wind shear remains likely at KJMS ahead of the front for a few hours either side of 06 UTC as light southerly surface winds continue while westerly winds aloft strengthen. Otherwise, only a period of VFR midlevel clouds and isolated to scattered, high-based showers are expected behind the front in the north this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A line of showers associated with a frontal boundary will continue to move eastward into western New England this evening. The line will exit Vermont shortly after midnight, followed by brief high pressure building in which will keep the area dry through Thursday night. A weak front will move through Friday and bring some light showers. High pressure follows this system on Saturday bringing cooler and drier weather to the region to start the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains largely on track as we progress into the evening hours. I did slow timing of departing cloud cover slightly based off latest sat/ob trends and also introduced some patchy post-frontal fog overnight, mainly across northern NY in line with most recent NAM 3km vsby output. Fog won`t be widespread, especially given stronger flow aloft associated with approaching upper trough advects into the area later tonight, but the idea that some may be floating around still looks reasonable at this point. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... A frontal boundary is progressing eastward through the region this afternoon, resulting in a line of light to moderate showers moving through. Ahead of the boundary, mesoanalysis showing a narrow moisture axis extending northward into Canada (PWATs around 1.6 inches), which is supporting some moderate showers. As the band progresses eastward into central and eastern Vermont later this afternoon into this evening, will see a brief uptick in precipitation rates and amounts as the front encounters an increasingly moist environment thanks to a weak coastal New England low. This low pressure system will direct onshore southeasterly flow towards Maine, New Hampshire, and somewhat extending into eastern Vermont. The best moisture and heaviest rainfall amounts this evening/overnight will stay well to the south and east of our forecast area, but the coastal low pressure system will work in tandem with the aforementioned frontal boundary to bring up to a half inch of precipitation to central and eastern Vermont this evening. There will be a fairly well-defined back edge to the rain showers that will bring a quick shift to drier weather overnight. In the wake of the showers, low-level moisture will linger overnight, which will result in some persisting low stratus clouds and areas of mist developing. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Brief ridge of high pressure will build in during the day Thursday, so mainly dry weather expected. Once the low clouds lift during the morning hours, we`ll see a mix of sun and some scattered fair weather cumulus clouds developing for the remainder of the day. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, with relatively low humidity values. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Wednesday...Brief surface ridge over the area Thursday night moves out Friday morning in advance of an approaching upper trough and attending cold front which will skirt along northern portions of the forecast area through the day. In general, the best dynamics stay north of the international border and overall deep moisture weakens as the front shifts over the area, so while some showers are possible, the day certainly won`t be a washout and precip should end by the afternoon`s high pressure over the Great Lakes begins to shift east. While the front will be dynamically weak, it will be thermally strong and usher in fall-like temperatures for Friday night which will last into the weekend. Highs ahead of the front on Friday will range through the 70s, with lows Friday night falling into mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Wednesday...Weather for the Labor Day holiday weekend begins about as good as you can get with high pressure dominating for Saturday through much of Sunday. The result will be generally sunny to partly cloudy skies but temps will be slightly below normal with 850mb temps only around +5-8C supporting highs of 70-75 and lows in the 40s Saturday night. For Sunday afternoon through Monday, models continue to trend towards more unsettled weather as a shortwave trough traversing the midwest takes aim at the mid-Atlantic and central/southern New England. Still some question whether the surface high stays strong enough to shunt the precip further south, so have offered some mid- chance to low-likely PoPs Sunday evening and night, with the highest chances being across southern Vermont. High pressure returns Monday night with drier weather expected for Tuesday along with a return of more summer like temperatures as highs rise into the mid 70s to around 80. This is due to increase south/southwesterly flow ahead our next front which looks to renew chances for showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Challenging with changeable flight conditions expected at our taf sites overnight into early Thursday morning. Radar shows a very slow moving broken line of showers across the CPV into central VT, which should exit our taf sites by 03z. Vis sat shows a window of clearing behind occluded type boundary approaching the slv with light bl flow. This clearing combined with saturated bl from today`s rainfall, along with light winds should result in some fog/br with ifr conditions likely at mss/slk and pbg. However, RAP and NAM3km indicate a low level jet develops at 15 to 25 knots around 500 feet agl, which may result in more stratus than fog for our taf sites overnight into Thursday morning. Have utilized tempo for BTV with 2sm sct 200 feet btwn 08-11z and similar for Rutland. Winds shift to the northwest on Thursday at 4 to 8 knots with cumulus clouds developing in favorable upslope flow wind component. Any lingering IFR at SLK/MSS should improve by 14z with mainly vfr except intervals of mvfr cigs at mtn sites. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Labor Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell/JMG SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...Updated Aviation section... .UPDATE... Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Update to increase/add near term low slight chance pops across the south for later tonight/overnight reflecting what the HRRR and the arw/nmm have been showing. Little to go on forcing wise however a decent moisture advection signal is in place overnight in the boundary layer, and isolated storms are already noted across eastern Colorado into the Texas panhandle. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Quiet weather for the short term forecast under the influence of surface high pressure and upper level ridging extending off the Rockies giving way to northwest flow aloft and dry conditions. Breezy south winds this afternoon 10-20 mph with temperatures pushing into the mid to upper 80s with the increased warm low level flow. Expect winds to ease after sunset and the few mid level clouds to clear out due to radiational cooling. Morning low temperatures heading into Thursday morning will be more mild in the 60s as the low level moisture and humidity starts to filter back in from the south ahead of the next storm system. Afternoon high temperatures will push back into the 90s with south winds picking up to 10-15 mph due to the increased daytime heating being the main drive for the diurnal trend. Changes come late Thursday as a shortwave pushes off the northern Rockies dropping a frontal boundary through the high plains bringing the first round of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the overnight through Friday morning. This first round will see the best chance for any severe weather due to the stronger daytime heating and instability with the moist Gulf of Mexico flow in the low levels. However, capping looks to be the main factor in storms making too far eastward out of Colorado along a dryline. Any storms look to be under severe thresholds east of Hwy 83 once the sun sets and the storms lose its juice. QPF amounts look to be under an inch increasing the further east as the next round for Friday afternoon and evening looks to be the heaviest giving into the flooding concerns that will be discussed more in depth for the long term forecast. Otherwise, the short term will remain fairly quiet with dry and warming temperatures expected with changes at the end of the period heading into the long term. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 The start of the long term forecast will be quite active behind the aforementioned frontal boundary as mentioned in the short term discussion. Cloud cover will linger for much of the day on Friday with some sun breaking out for far southwestern counties allowing for afternoon highs to push into the low 90s but closer to 80 the further north and east. Ongoing rain showers will linger for this part of the CWA with the next big round later in the evening and overnight into the start of the holiday weekend for Saturday. An additional 2-3 inches east of Hwy 183 and less than an inch the further west will come with this round associated with the main upper level trough supporting the surface boundary. Flooding will be the main concern for the start of the long term into the weekend to include possible river stage concerns as well. The models, though, have pulled back some on the QPF output where as before there was 3 plus inches for much of the second tier of eastern counties from Hays to Coldwater but now constrained to the St. John area and eastward. Ongoing storms and rain showers look extend into much of Saturday lingering in the eastern counties even into the evening hours. Mild temperatures in the 60s to start the weekend mornings and afternoon highs pushing only into the upper 70s to low 80s due to the ongoing precipitation and cloud cover. Expect more sun for Sunday and into Labor Day with highs pushing back into the upper 80s to low 90s as ridging and surface high pressure builds back into the high plains with the increased convergence aloft with the aforementioned trough pushed further east into the Missouri River Basin. Expect quiet weather for the most part into the extended long term through mid week with temperatures ranging from the 60s in the morning to near 90 during the peak heating hours of the afternoon, much near average for this time of year to start the month of September. A minimal chance for precipitation for Wednesday with a weak shortwave propagating across the region mainly looking more to affect northern counties along the I-70 corridor but confidence is low at this time due to being so far out and model inconsistency at this point. For now, the main concern will be for Friday and into Saturday with flash flooding and river flooding concerns being the main focus in areas already so saturated from the past week or so of heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Little has changed for this latest TAF cycle. There is a very slight chance convection could affect a terminal as far north as DDC, however any showers/storms this evening and early overnight ought to be brief and non-severe as well as quite isolated. Beyond this evening - weak gradient will allow light south wind through Friday afternoon, with best gust potential across central Kansas, so we could see some gusts as high as 15 to 20 knots around Hays to Dodge City. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 95 67 88 / 10 0 20 30 GCK 63 97 65 89 / 10 0 20 30 EHA 61 99 64 93 / 10 0 10 20 LBL 65 97 66 92 / 10 0 10 20 HYS 63 92 65 80 / 0 0 40 40 P28 67 94 69 87 / 30 20 20 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Russell SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Lowe AVIATION...Russell
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1046 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 248 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2019 Primary forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances Thursday. Another beautiful day across the region, as the surface ridge remains centered over the Ozarks. Surface winds have begun to shift more to the southwest and south, as the surface high continues to slide east and southeast. In response, we`ll end up with a gradual uptick in boundary layer warm air advection into Thursday; overnight lows will only dip into the middle to upper 60s. Into Thursday, with the surface ridge continuing to exit eastward, southerly flow will continue to transport higher dew points, ahead of an approaching surface front, into the low/mid-Missouri Valley. At present, it appears most short to mid-range guidance is likely over doing dew points 2 to 5 degrees F, given 18z surface analysis has 70 dew points still south of I-40 in Oklahoma. With this in mind, it would be best to temper model derived instability tomorrow afternoon. Regardless, confidence is increasing that storms will develop along the front as it drops out of Iowa/easter Nebraska into Missouri/eastern Kansas. Ahead of this boundary, a few runs of the RAP suggest some pre-frontal convection, around midday, focused along an axis of isentropic ascent is possible in eastern Kansas. This development will hinge on available low/mid-level moisture. Convection Thursday afternoon, along the front, will likely kick off mid to late afternoon in southern Iowa, which will be preceded by some likely morning rain/storms. Expect initial convection to organize into a line or somewhat broken line as it pushes into northern Missouri through the evening. Deep layer shear and instability will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms, capable of pockets of damaging winds and possibly hail up to quarter size. Rain and storm chances will carry into Friday, as a short wave trough moves through the region. With zonal flow aloft, the short wave will be slow to exit east. This will result in off and on rain chances through Friday and lingering through the day, Saturday. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2019 VFR conditions will dominate through much of the fcst period with concerns mainly confined to the end of the fcst as shwrs/storms approach from the north. Before then, winds will increase out of the southwest after 15z with speeds of 10-15 kts expected. Towards the latter half of the period, shwrs/storms are expected to track south towards our area, with model indications suggesting activity will move into the area during the 3-6z time frame. For now, have only offered a VCTS mention in response to various arrival times from latest model guidance. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Kurtz Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1144 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west tonight as moisture from Tropical Storm Erin streams north. As this moisture collides with the cold front, expect a period of heavy rainfall tonight into the early morning hours, especially on the coastal plain. High pressure builds in briefly behind the cold front for Thursday with another frontal boundary ushering in cooler and drier air Friday night and lasting through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1145PM UPDATE... Made a few minor adjustments to update hourly precipitation chances and temperatures. No significant change in forecast thinking. Band of heavier rain is now developing along the New Hampshire and southwest Maine coastline. 935PM... Adjustments to forecast are mainly on timing of precip and I did limit TSRA chance to just coastal areas based on current conditions. Watching the area of convection that is currently stretching from S central MA to ern Long Island, as this is where the source of the heaviest rain will be over the next 6 hours across coastal areas of NH and ME. HRRR and RAP in fair agreement, that some training may occur east of a line from Seacoast NH NNE toward KAUG-KWVL, and again this remains in the FFW area. Overall QPF is slightly lower, but could still localized amounts of 2-3 inches, with 1-2" possible in 2-3 hours in this area through about 06-07Z. The next hour or two should tell the story whether that band begins to form, and how intense it is, as it will feature pre-cold front instability interacting with coastal front. 625PM... Have adjusted POPs to fine tune the timing and coverage of the rain overnight. Also have lowered QPF somewhat, especially in the FFW area, as thinking is that basin average amounts will probably come 1-1.75" in these areas, and the higher amounts, in the 2-3" range will be more localized. These areas are hard to pinpoint exactly, but meso models do show some enhanced forcing along the coastal front this evening, and then into the SE upslope areas of the ME foothills midnight and shortly thereafter, which is well covered by the current FFW. The model trend is putting the best forcing and heaviest QPF along the coastal this evening, so this will need to be watched for any training or slow moving cells. Thinking is the greatest threat for flooding along the SW ME coast and adjacent inland areas will be thru around midnight, with the threat in mid-coast and central lingering until 3-4 AM. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Northern New England is awaiting synoptic scale forcing approaching from both the west and the south. To the west a NNE to SSW oriented cold front was slowly moving through eastern New York state. Showers and some stronger embedded convection was moving northeast along the front. To our south a plume of moisture associated with Tropical Storm Erin was impacting Connecticut and Massachusetts and was poised to reach southern NH later this afternoon. The airmass over the region is characterized by high theta-e air with deep warm cloud depths. Southerly winds and an increasing LLJ around 35 kts ahead of the front will feed into a convergence zone along the front supporting training of cells. Forcing for ascent will increase aloft as heights continue to fall. The interaction of these features will support efficient warm rain processes normally indicative of heavy and even torrential (2"/hour or more) rains overnight. Rainfall should spread into southwest Maine this evening and arc northward with time tonight, with isolated thunder over southern sections. The heaviest rainfall should occur late tonight into the overnight hours as the boundary slows as it nears the coast...generally in the area delineated by the Flash Flood Watch. Model consensus along with collaboration with the NERFC and SPC support totals of 1-3" along the front with the possibility of up to 4" in isolated areas. The Flash Flood Watch remains unchanged. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Precipitation moves out quickly in the morning as a potent short wave swings through. We remain in cyclonic flow aloft with a narrow ridge of high pressure building in briefly through Friday morning. The drier airmass will allow for sunny skies over central and southern NH with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Highs should warm into the mid 70s north to lower 80s in the typically warmer areas. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the 50s areawide. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through early next week. The entire forecast period consists of a broad low amplitude trough over much of the northern third of the CONUS with the exception of the Pacific northwest. With the mean jet position nearby or overhead we`ll see quick day-to-day changes in sensible weather as a series of impulses and weak surface systems traverse the area. In the dailies...a cold front will cross the area with scattered convection Friday night. High pressure follows for Saturday and early Sunday. A weak system arrives with clouds and a more widespread round of convection late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Moisture from offshore Tropical Storm Erin will overspread the region and interact with a cold front, leading to IFR conditions for southern New Hampshire and along the coastal plain beginning this evening, and for all TAF sites overnight. Expect low visibilities in +RA between 4-12Z Thursday before improvement from west to east. There will be some fog around during this time as well. A return to VFR conditions is likely later Thursday morning as the cold front pushes eastward. Lightning...We may see isolated thunderstorms near PSM...CON... and MHT tonight. Long Term... Fri PM...Sct MVFR in -shra/-tsra. Sun PM - Mon...Areas of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southeast onshore flow develops tonight but should stay below advisory levels. Onshore winds don`t last long enough to generate higher wave heights before a cold front arrives early Thursday morning, shifting winds to the west. Seas increase to 5 ft for the central and eastern far outer waters late Thursday night into Friday however. Long Term... Fri PM - Sat...SCA`s possible outside the bays. && .HYDROLOGY... Deep tropical moisture will interact with several atmospheric triggers to produce widespread heavy rainfall tonight into the early morning hours on Thursday. A front will stall near the coast and align perpendicular to the mean flow, allowing very high PWAT air to pool along it. A flash flood watch is in effect for southeastern NH and the foothills and coastal plain of Maine. Although flash flood guidance values are on the high side and we have been in a recent dry spell, any areas that see multiple rainfalls (training cells) of heavy rainfall in a short amount of time have the potential for localized flash flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides will begin Friday and continue over the weekend. While flooding is not expected, long-period swell associated with Tropical Storm Erin combined with expected tide levels may lead to splashover and nuisance flooding during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday late night high tides. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ012>014- 018>028. NH...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ010-012>014. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Schwibs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
947 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 MB), latest available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm, like 24 hours prior, depicts a complex middle and upper level flow pattern over the Southeastern United States including Florida and the Florida Keys, with the axis of a east to west oriented ridge above 500 mb extending in the Central Gulf from along 90W to across to across Central Florida thence northeast to near 30N 75W. East of that feature, a (TUTT) tropical upper tropospheric trough cell is migrating slowly westward and is now located just north of the Dominican Republic near 22N 70W. Of course, southeast of that feature is strengthening Hurricane Dorian, which was located at 8 pm to be at 19.2N 65.7W or about 60 miles NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. At the surface and in the middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest available marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 900 pm, details decoupled Tropical Depression #6 which at 5 pm was located about 165 miles ESE of Cape Hatteras, NC. This system trails a trough axis south southwestward into the Central Bahamas. As was the case 24 hours ago, there is a near 1015 mb meso- hi pressure center located over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Latest CIRA data suggests deep moisture, typical at this time of year, surrounds the Florida Keys with PWAT at 1.75 to 2.00 inches, but rises to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches upstream of the Keys across all of the Northern and Central Bahamas in association with aforementioned approaching TUTT cell and the low level trough. The evening sounding illustrated PWAT at about 1.80 inches with still gentle to moderate northwest to north flow from off of the surface up to 500 mb, then continuing to be light to gentle all the way to 150 mb. .CURRENTLY...As of 900 pm, skies are partly cloudy across all of the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Radar still detects isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated storms still exist along boundaries, mainly concentrated attm across the Eastern Florida Straits, but like last night, this was the remnants of clusters of showers and storms that moved off the Mainland from the seabreeze in the moist gentle to moderate northwesterly flow. Temperatures across the islands remain in the upper 80s with sticky dewpoints in the upper 70s. C-man stations along the Florida Reef are still recording NW winds between 10 and 15 knots, but with gusts between 15 and 20 knots. Island sensors are recording NW winds between 10 and 15 mph. .SHORT TERM...Overnight and Thursday, as the trough over the Bahamas continues to slide westward overnight towards the Keys, increasing moisture upstream of the Keys and surrounding waters will work its way westward, with PWAT rising to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches by 12Z. As such, HRRR and the Caribbean HRRR both agree additional showers and storms will redevelop later tonight again along boundaries upstream of both the Upper Florida Keys, as well as over the Extreme Southeastern Gulf of Mexico upstream of both the Middle and Lower Keys. The configuration of the ridge to our southwest and the approaching surface/low level trough will continue to allow for gentle to moderate winds this evening and overnight and early Thursday morning. The confluent flow will drive boundaries, showers and storms across the Keys and all surrounding waters. As such, we are carrying 50% chances for 12 hour pops for scattered showers and storms, above the 35% climo pops for the date. && .MARINE...Gentle to moderate breezes will continue overnight and Thursday morning. Winds and seas will be higher in and near some of these showers and storms. Hurricane Dorian is expected to track northwest overnight through Friday morning. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals for the next 24 hours, but there will be periods of shower and thunderstorm activity near each terminal. For example, convection will blossom over the Southeast Gulf after midnight and then move to the southeast toward EYW and MTH during the late night and morning hours. These showers should dissipate by mid-day Thursday, and the overall trend is reflected with VCSH in the TAFs. Then afternoon thunderstorms over the Everglades on Thu afternoon will slide to the southwest toward the Middle and possibly the Lower Keys during the late afternoon and early evening. && .TROPICAL...Now is the time to make sure you have a hurricane plan. Now is the time to have your supplies ready. Do not wait to make a plan and gather supplies when under increased stress. Portions of the Florida Keys are presently inside the forecast cone as of 900 pm. Remain up-to-date with the latest forecast either through or At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Looking ahead please consider these factors! (from CLR, previous Forecaster Discussion) The expected NW to WNW turn by strengthening Hurricane Dorian will take place Friday evening or Saturday morning east of the Bahamas. This turn is critical. How far west will the surface trough make it into the Gulf of Mexico? How quickly will the subtropical ridge build to the north of Dorian? Dorian`s eventual landfall location along the Florida east coast will depend upon the timing and degree of WNW turn Friday evening/Saturday morning. For now, the official track takes Dorian into north-central Florida. The average error for the day 5 forecast point is nearly 200 miles, and Dorian is not an easy forecast to resolve. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Tropical...Futterman Aviation/Nowcasts/Statements/Warnings....Haner Social Media...SDR Upper Air/Data Collection......DR/NB Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1034 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .DISCUSSION... Grids/zones were updated earlier to account for radar trends...most notably to increase POPs in areas where convection was more widespread. Latest high res runs weren`t very bullish on additional activity away from the coast overnight...but given such moist/unstable conditions in regional 00z soundings, plus the presence of the sfc boundary/troffing aloft, maintained slim POPs beyond 06z. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ AVIATION... Ongoing convection across S LA will continue over the next 2-3 hours resulting in the potential for TEMPO restrictions at KARA/KLFT. Outflow from these storms moving east could trigger the development of additional convection in the vicinity of KLCH through 02Z-03Z. Convection should diminish shortly thereafter and give way to clearing skies and light winds for the rest of the evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows diffuse cool front/trough boundary over NE TX/N LA. Radar showing scattered thunderstorms developed over C and SC LA where the high temperatures reached the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Further west across W LA and inland SE TX, thunderstorms have yet to redevelop mainly due to this morning`s convection and outflow boundary keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Had to load a mixture of latest HRRR temps/dewpoints for the afternoon, as NBM did not show this at all. Showers and thunderstorms expected to diminish by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Keeping at least 20% for the overnight hours for any development due to the proximity of the frontal boundary. Expecting scattered late morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The front should make some southward progress by Thursday night into Friday-Saturday to allow lower dewpoints and most of the precip chances to remain over the Gulf. Should see slightly lower overnight temperatures during this period. By Labor Day, expected to begin seeing a return of moisture to allow for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Moisture associated with a tropical wave over the Central Gulf will likely return slightly higher chances of precipitation by Tuesday- Wednesday of next week. DML MARINE... Generally light and variable winds can be expected the next few days as a weak frontal boundary settles near the coast or over the coastal waters. Winds will trend more east to northeast and strengthen slightly over the weekend and into early next week as a weak trough of low pressure moves west across the Gulf. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 10 10 LCH 76 92 75 92 / 30 40 10 20 LFT 75 92 73 93 / 50 40 10 10 BPT 77 90 77 90 / 20 40 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
822 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .UPDATE... Updated the grids to bring PoPS, weather and QPF in line with current trends in the Baton Rouge to Atchafalaya Basin area. Rain rates have been sustaining at a good clip with 3-4 inches indicated by radar thusfar. There is a backward propagation component to the convection northward. The HRRR wants to maintain rainfall into SW MS for the next 2-3 hours, which may or may not happen, but motions of any upstream developments would eventually move into the region that is getting the bulk of the rain currently. 24/RR && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Pressure fields and a slight lowering of dew points would indicate frontal boundary is probably pretty close to Interstate 10 this afternoon, with surface high pressure currently over southern Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms have developed, mainly to the west of a Baton Rouge to Boothville line, sinking southward a bit. Outside of thunderstorms, temperatures have heated up into the mid 90s. A few locations such as Pascagoula and New Orleans International did reach the Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees. SHORT TERM... Plan to allow Heat Advisory to expire at 6 pm CDT on schedule. At this time, it does not appear that we will reach criteria tomorrow with somewhat lower dew points expected. Thunderstorms this evening should remain primarily south of Interstate 10 and expect a significant diminishing trend near or shortly after sunset. If there is any precipitation tomorrow, it should be west of a Baton Rouge to Grand Isle line, and west of the Atchafalaya on Friday. Moisture will start returning from the southeast on Saturday with surface high shifting to the east coast. Any precipitation Saturday should be east of a Biloxi to Boothville line. Some concern that forecast highs might be a little too cool tomorrow if wind flow is a little more northerly than expected. In that case, highs would warm into the mid 90s instead of lower, but with lower dew points the next few days, heat index values will be lower. 35 LONG TERM... Weak tropical wave forecast to move westward across the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Labor Day, with shower and thunderstorm chances/coverage increasing Saturday night into Sunday, going with likely PoPs for much of the area Sunday. Wave should be west of the area by mid-day Labor Day. Beyond Labor Day, forecast will be dependent on the eventual track of Hurricane Dorian. Current forecast has Dorian over central Florida Monday afternoon. There is potential for Dorian to reach at least the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. For now, haven`t made major changes beyond Monday, but forecast confidence is rather uncertain for mid-week. Precipitation should hold temperatures in the 80s on Sunday, with near to slightly above normal temperatures early next week. 35 AVIATION... An approaching cold front has produced another round of spotty showers and storms this afternoon. At this time, better coverage of storms will be west of I-55 but mainly along the River Parishes and southwestward mainly affecting KHUM and KMSY. Main threats with any one storm will be gusty downdraft winds in excess of 25 to 35 knots, as well as periods of lower visibility within heavier rainfall leading to temporary reductions in flight categories. Otherwise, winds will eventually shift more from the north through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, and will dry out with VFR conditions expected. 18/35 MARINE... Convection diminishes and presses south into the western portion of the coastal waters tomorrow, then northerly winds and dry conditions following through the rest of the week. Next focus will be on Saturday and Sunday, as a tropical inverted trough/upper disturbance approaches from the east. Look for increasing shower/storm activity as well as gusty easterly winds developing. Confidence of Small Craft criteria is low at this time, but may likely reach exercise caution headlines. Beyond that, eventual track of Dorian will be determining factor of forecast, with potential for movement into at least the eastern Gulf early next week. 35 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Blue. River Flood Warning - Pearl River near Bogalusa. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 93 68 92 / 70 10 0 10 BTR 74 93 73 93 / 80 20 0 10 ASD 73 94 70 94 / 10 10 0 10 MSY 79 93 77 92 / 40 10 0 10 GPT 74 93 71 92 / 10 0 0 10 PQL 72 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 322 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2019 GOES visible satellite imagery this morning shows a broad area of clouds over the Upper Great Lakes this morning as residual scattered showers stretch from IWD to CMX and east from P53 to ESC. Most of these showers are remaining sub-6000 feet, as evidence from RAP soundings and radar imagery. RAP analysis shows an early Fall 987mb low pressure system lifting into the Hudson Bay, extending an elongated trough across Lake Superior and the Upper Great Lakes region. This low has kept Upper Michigan breezy through the overnight hours and into the early afternoon today. Expect that trend to continue right into tomorrow with a brief reprieve overnight tonight. For tonight, guidance is split for low temperatures with raw outputs remaining warm, mainly into the 50s as BC models dip down into the 40s and some upper 30s away from the Great Lakes. NBM sits slightly below the median at about the 40th percentile. Have split the difference across Upper Michigan, given expected clearing skies(although winds remain elevated) as the interior portions of the UP should fall into mid 40s, with 50s expected along the Great Lakes. Tomorrow, another embedded shortwave is set to pass across the UP in the afternoon. This shortwave will bring a good shot at showers and some chances at thunderstorms from west to east. SREF plumes continue to show near 500 J/kg across the UP from LNL to ERY. Expect thunderstorms that do develop to remain below severe criteria, but gusty winds will remain possible with some dry air aloft and 50 knots of bulk shear. This shortwave will move through with moderate q-vector conv that will help support a good amount of coverage in precipitation ahead of thunderstorm chances in the afternoon as deeper mixing sets in. The one question will be how much moisture return occurs after this mornings shortwave lifts north, allowing SW flow to briefly return ahead of tomorrow`s shortwave/cold front passage. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2019 Models suggest that mid/upper level troughing through the northern Great Lakes will give way to a more zonal pattern this weekend as the mid/upper level trough recedes to the north through Hudson Bay. Expect temperature readings near or slightly below average for this weekend with dry conditions under sfc high pressure. The pattern is expected to amplify again next week as a ridge builds through the Rockies and western Plains. As a result, a front moving through the northern Great Lakes Mon night-Tuesday will provide the focus for the next pcpn event. Fri-Sun, sfc high pressure and dry air will build into the northern Great Lakes behind Thurday`s cold front with pleasant conditions. Expected highs in the upper 60s to around 70F with breezy conditions on Friday will give way to light winds with lake breezes on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the lower 70s. Lows may drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s inland with readings in the lower 50s along the Great Lakes. Mon-Wed, Expect rain chances to increase, especially later Monday into Tuesday, as a frontal boundary sags into the area in response to the amplifying pattern. Confidence in the timing and extent of the rain is low given model differences/variability and ensemble spread with the speed/position of the front. So, chance POPs will continue to be utilized late Mon into Tue. Expect generally drier conditions Wed under building sfc high pressure. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 724 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2019 Skies will clear from west to east tonight. Winds will relax a bit, and take on a southwesterly component overnight into tomorrow ahead of another front expected to bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of the front, becoming west to northwesterly behind the front. Showers will push into KIWD/KCMX by mid-morning, and then push eastward towards KSAW in the early afternoon hours. Depending on how much instability can build ahead of the front, could see a thunderstorms or two near KSAW during the afternoon hours. For now have mentioned of VCTS. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 322 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2019 A few gale-force gusts will linger through this afternoon before falling back into the mid 20 knots range. Winds will turn more SW tonight increasing up to 30 knots at times. A cold front tomorrow afternoon will switch winds to the NW with 20 to 25 knot gusts persisting through Friday. After Friday, winds should remain below 20 knots through the rest of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...Ritzman MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
430 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... Very hot temperatures are expected again today with portions of south-central Arizona once again reaching excessive heat thresholds. Yet another period of excessive heat is expected on Friday and Saturday with most lower desert locations across seeing highs at or above 110 degrees. Storm chances return to the higher terrain of south-central Arizona again this afternoon and evening. Storm chances may expand westward later in the holiday weekend with isolated thunderstorms possibly even reaching southeast California. && .DISCUSSION... Latest streamline analysis indicates the center of the mid-tropospheric anticyclone is centered just east of Yuma, which places much of Arizona in a weak westerly flow. Across northern Sonora, latest satellite imagery reveals a broad area of vorticity, which is associated with cooler temperatures aloft across southeastern Arizona. Morning CAMs indicate convection is expected to be favored in these areas as well as along the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain east of Phoenix late this afternoon. Latest trends in the HRRR, local CAMs and HREF suggest a relatively high likelihood of an outflow boundary propagating northwestward through the Phoenix area this evening. The boundary should be capable of producing 30 mph gusts which will likely generate at least patchy blowing dust across Pinal and Maricopa Counties. Official precipitation chances across the lower deserts remain on the high end of guidance but generally less than 20 percent, mainly owing to a pocket of warm air aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates across central Arizona. Latest ACARS soundings indicate MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, along with 100-200 J/kg of CIN. Consequently, it will generally take increasing moisture convergence between the terrain-driven westerly flow and a strong outflow boundary to overcome the inhibition. Nevertheless, a few air mass thunderstorms even within the Phoenix metro area cannot be ruled out, given the excessive heat, seasonably high low-level dewpoints and subsequent instability. The Excessive Heat Warning will expire this evening. With a high temperature most likely reaching at least 110 deg in Phoenix, this will make 28 days at or above 110 deg, moving this year into fourth place all-time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Over the next several days, convective activity will generally fall on the low-grade monsoon end of the spectrum. Most of the thunderstorms that develop will focus across the high terrain east of Phoenix or down into southeast Arizona in areas southeast of Casa Grande. Models continue to depict occasional inverted trofs rotating around the high, but the high itself remains rather strong each day and centered across the central portions of the state; this tends to shunt the disturbances/inverted trofs to the south and they track mainly through northwest Mexico or far southern/southeast Arizona. On Thursday, an increase in clouds/humidity from the east plus slight weakening of the high and 850mb temps dropping to around 29C support high temps falling below heat warning thresholds for one day. Guidance has been very consistent lately in calling for the excessive heat to quickly rebound Friday into Saturday. ECMPHX ensemble guidance from the ECMWF actually calls for higher temps in Phoenix Fri/Sat than the currently ongoing heat event. NAEFS percentiles for 850mb temps keeps the 90+ percentile area going across the central deserts again on Friday and Saturday, and 850mb temps climb to near 31C by Saturday afternoon. With the high centered to the west of Phoenix, a drier north/northeast steering flow sets up and 500mb heights again reach or exceed 594dm. Surface dewpoints over the lower deserts are forecast to fall in to the upper 40s to low 50s during the afternoon hours. Everything supports another bout of excessive heat and the Excessive Heat Warning that was issued earlier for much of our lower deserts will continue. This warning includes much of southwest Arizona and far southeast California as well as south-central Arizona and the Phoenix area. Operational as well as ensemble guidance continues to suggest that better chances for monsoon activity will develop Sunday into the early part of next week. The upper high finally shifts further to the north and east and a deeper east to southeast steering flow sets up that is able to import healthy amounts of moisture westward and all the way into the southern California deserts. As such POPs Sunday into Tuesday reflect conditions climbing into the moderate grade with 10-20 percent POPs in the deserts and chance numbers over the high terrain. One of the better chances may be Sunday afternoon and evening as an inverted trof looks to be moving west and around the high, increasing storm chances over the southern part of Arizona. Of course, as clouds and humidity rise (along with potential for actual rain and rain-cooled outflows) high temperatures will finally drop off to near seasonal normal levels. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2330 UTC. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Large forecast uncertainty into this evening is tied to maintenance (or lack there of) of storms and outflows progressing north and west from E/SE AZ. Moderate to high confidence exists that a better defined boundary will progress into the Phoenix metro in the 03Z-05Z time frame causing an abrupt wind shift some where between an easterly and southerly direction. Lower confidence exists regarding wind gust speeds and propagation of dust along this boundary where lofted dust and a brief period of lower slantwise visibilities may be the more common impact. The lowest confidence exists with respect to the potential for TS to be maintained or re-develop over/near terminal sites. Recent HRRR iterations are probably most aggressive though even this output generally only shows decaying storms. Chances of an actual TS within a terminal footprint is probably only 10-20% at best. If storms can form in the metro, resulting wind directions will become extremely variable with stronger gusts potential for multiple wind shifts. EVentually, a general easterly component should settle over terminals beyond midnight as any activity wanes during the overnight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns through Thursday afternoon under clear skies. Some measure of southerly winds will be maintained with potential for some variability at KIPL through the evening/overnight. Gusty winds at KBLH should decrease during the evening with less gusty character Thursday afternoon. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday: The Monsoon High will migrate north of the area and towards the Four Corners by early next week. This will result in an easterly flow, which will be favorable for increasing relative humidities and at least isolated storms each day, particularly across eastern Arizona. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures are expected Saturday, though a cooling trend is anticipated through the middle of next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ534- 537-538-540>546-548>551-553>556-559-560-562. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>532-534-536>538-540>546-548>551-553>556-559-560- 562. CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ563-566-567-569-570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hirsch AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .UPDATE... Latest RAP model has broad mid level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface high pressure in the Gulf slips westward as a weak inverted trough tracks from the Bahamas to across the southern half of FL Thu...while a frontal boundary settles into the northern part of the state. These features will shift the onshore flow of the past couple of days to variable overnight then northeasterly or north-northeasterly Thu. The afternoon convection is pretty much done across the area although some will continue overnight offshore. Have made adjustments in the near term to better reflect the current trends and will update the forecasts shortly. On Thu the inverted trough will bring higher moisture to about the southern half of the state and provide the best rain chances there. && .AVIATION... 29/00Z TAFs. Limited afternoon SHRA/TSRA have just exited the southern terminals with VFR prevailing through the period. Although VCTS AFT 18Z-20Z could bring brief MVFR/LCL IFR. NW winds become light/VRBL then NE AFT 15Z. However TPA/PIE/SRQ winds back to NNW AFT 20Z. && .MARINE... Onshore winds shift tonight to northeast and east through the end of the week. Hurricane Dorian begins to approach later in the weekend and early next week with increasing rain chances and winds. Please monitor the latest forecasts and information from the National Hurricane Center. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 78 93 75 91 / 30 20 20 90 FMY 77 91 75 89 / 30 50 30 90 GIF 76 92 75 90 / 10 40 20 90 SRQ 77 92 75 91 / 30 40 20 90 BKV 75 94 73 91 / 20 20 20 80 SPG 78 92 76 91 / 40 30 20 90 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude UPPER AIR...42/Norman DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close