Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/26/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
835 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .DISCUSSION...Once again this evening, convection fired into fairly robust clusters of strong to severe storms, with the most intense causing wind damage in western Willacy County where radar was estimating 70+ mph winds as the microburst surged through. That was the second act of a tornadic mini-supercell in western Kenedy County with eerie similarities to June 24th, the "sequel" to the 2018 Great Flood. That`s where the similarities ended, fortunately, as plume and push of very dry mid level air won the battle...and will set the stage for continued heat (and a likely new August monthly heat record for much of the RGV) for much of the upcoming week, along with largely rain-free weather. That rain-free trend begins overnight...based on the "worked over" atmosphere this evening and the filtering of the deeper dry air later tonight. Given these trends, have reduced precipition gradually this evening, and cut off completely by 10 PM - with the main leftovers "debris" stratiform rain in the Lower Valley through the western Gulf. No changes for Monday...but as previously mentioned the heat will surge in low level south to even southwesterly (off the deck) flow with thicknesses well above average. Plenty of surface RH as well so advisories are looking more likely...and would not surprise if readings edge over 115 for several hours and require warnings particularly across the RGV if mixing of drier air higher up can`t erode the surface dewpoints enough. Stay tuned. No further forecasts have been published and text products to follow shortly. Update - 52/BSG && .AVIATION...Apologies for the late discussion on the 00Z forecast but elected to combine overall discussion into one based on gridded forecast changes as well as tracking/following up with the strong/severe thunderstorms for a few hours earlier. After adding convection into the TAFs through 8 PM, overnight will see anvil cirrus for several hours which should become scattered after midnight. Surface winds were disrupted by the convection but will come back to a less than 10 knot average overnight. Could see patchy MVFR conditions but expect only very short periods of ceiling if at all. As the aforementioned atmospheric dry air spreads south on Monday, forecast shifts to a wind-cast as atmospheric RH values drop noticeably. This should keep clouds to few-scattered MVFR cumulus all day. South to southeast winds will pick up quickly by mid to late morning and a pretty gusty afternoon is likely with sustained winds edging to 20 knots or so as thermal trough enhances the pressure gradient. 52/BSG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Another round of showers and thunderstorms is underway, as a weak mid-level trough persists across the Western Gulf and the diurnal seabreeze develops just inland. Radar imagery indicates numerous convection across Brooks and Kenedy counties, as well as the lower RGV. High-resolution convective models are in pretty good agreement with this convection expanding and moving gradually west-southwestward across Deep South Texas through the evening. The HRRR in particular has been fairly consistent, showing a few stronger cells possible. Though a marginally-severe storm cannot be ruled out, heavy rain will be the main threat this evening. 12Z KBRO sounding from this morning measured record-level moisture, with precipitable water values of 2.41 inches. This will undoubtedly lead to locally heavy downpours with torrential rainfall rates. Most of the region is under drought conditions, however, any rainfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour would cause some flooding issued in low-lying and urban areas. Tonight into Monday, the mid-level trough will pivot northeastward away from the region. Drier air will then filter back in, keeping rain chances low the rest of the period. The heat will continue with mid-level heights around 591 to 592dam along with surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s across the RGV. This will lead to heat indices exceeding 110 for much of the area and up to 115 across the inland coastal counties and lower RGV. Therefore, another Heat Advisory will be likely tomorrow. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Latest NWP guidance remains rather consistent with previous forecast through the long-term, with perhaps some changes in sight by later next weekend. On Tuesday, 500-mb high center will lie roughly near ELP, with ridge axis extending into the western Gulf of Mexico. The center of this subtropical high is progged to drift gradually westward through Friday, before drifting northward next weekend. This will maintain rather hot and humid conditions through Thursday, with only very slight (silent) rain chances. Should note that the ECMWF still holds the ridging somewhat stronger vs. the GFS during this period. Will continue to lean in the ECM`s direction, per continuity with previous forecast. With little change in guidance, both temps and PoP`s were left largely alone for this package. Still looks like a Heat Advisory may be required on Tuesday, with heat indices reaching into the 110-114 degree range across much of the CWA. Thereafter, slowly receding heights and gradually backing/weakening winds (south of a front stalled out over east/northeast Texas) should take a little edge off of the heat, with temps closer to climo norms by around Friday. For Friday, and perhaps more so into next weekend, another weakness aloft develops with the high center well off to the northwest. This should allow column RH to deepen, with a slight chance of sea-breeze showers and storms on Friday, increasing to a chance for next Saturday and Sunday. 12Z run of ECM appears to have come into better agreement with GFS on this, after taking a quick look. Speaking of the ECM (and looking way ahead), last night`s 00Z run wanted to bring a frontal boundary, with plenty of moisture, through the area around Labor Day (02 Sep). 12Z run brings a tropical circulation of some sort into the western Gulf from the east around this time. So confidence isn`t especially high beyond Saturday. Have trended PoP`s up to around 30% in this timeframe for now, though. MARINE (Now through Monday Night): The pressure gradient has tightened a bit today as pressure decreases across the TX Panhandle, leading to stronger southeast winds along the Bay today. Small craft will need to exercise caution the rest of the afternoon and into tonight as winds remain elevated. Moderate winds are expected again on Monday along with low to moderate seas across the Gulf waters, though thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish through Monday and Monday night. Tuesday through Saturday: Still anticipating moderate-to-fresh south-to-southeasterly breezes and generally moderate seas around 4 feet on Tuesday, courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient. Small Craft Exercise Caution wording will likely be needed Tuesday daytime on the Laguna Madre and perhaps on the nearshore Gulf waters as well. The pressure gradient will then become weaker through the rest of the period, as a front stalls across north Texas, resulting in light to modest southeasterly winds and favorable seas. At times, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting Wednesday, generally offshore, then expanding to all of the coastal waters beginning Thursday. There could be locally higher winds and seas in any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 96 82 95 / 20 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 81 100 82 97 / 30 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 81 100 81 100 / 20 10 10 10 MCALLEN 82 103 82 102 / 40 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 104 81 103 / 30 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 91 83 90 / 20 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 52/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
905 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Area radars show widespread showers expanding in coverage over most of the forecast area in response to elevated moisture return and warm advection, combined with strong upper forcing ahead of a shortwave. At 8 pm, this shortwave was moving through south central IA and central MO with a well defined swirl on radar over northern MO and a weaker, possible MCV moving into southeast IA. The bulk of lightning has been associated with the main vort max over MO, but there have been some isolated flashes over southeast IA due to the strong upper level lift and associated enhanced mid level lapse rates. Have updated the forecast to increase rain chances and coverage this evening and overnight over the forecast area and kept isolated thunderstorms mainly along the highway 34 corridor. The best lift will shift to east of the MS River after midnight into Monday morning and have increased pops over that area to likely and categorical. Rainfall rates support widespread quarter to half inch rainfall in this area. Models are coming into decent agreement with the current weak surface low, currently setting up near Kansas City, migrating northeast through southeast Iowa into west central IL by mid morning. This would place northeast MO and southeast IA in the prime spot for low level moisture pooling and fog, as indicated by the SREF and recent HRRR runs. Have thus added a mention late night early morning fog into the mix for these areas. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 18Z surface data has high pressure from New England back into the eastern Great Lakes. Dew points were in the the 50s from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes with 60s across the central and northern Plains. Dew points in the 70s were in the southern Plains into the deep South. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Return flow aloft combined with weak forcing will allow sprinkles and showers to persist through sunset. Tonight forcing will slowly increase as an upper level disturbance from the Missouri storm complex slowly moves northeast. This additional forcing combined with moisture flowing into the area should allow isolated to scattered showers to continue overnight with the better coverage generally east of the Mississippi. Rainfall amounts however will be less than one tenth inch. Monday has the potential to be interesting. Lingering showers are expected through the morning hours with the better coverage east of the Mississippi. Monday afternoon the next cold front will move into the area during peak heating. Moisture and forcing will be plentiful so thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. The severe potential is acknowledged given the forcing and favorable winds aloft. However if cloud cover persists through the day, which is possible, then it may greatly reduce the overall severe potential. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Monday night through Thursday, Showers and Thunderstorms will end overnight Monday with pleasant weather on tap for much of the upcoming week. The upper level flow over the central U.S. will shift to the northwest in response to a deep upper level closed low developing north of the Great Lakes and an upper level ridge building over the inter-mountain west. Skies will be mainly sunny through the period as cool surface high presssure builds into the the midwest, ushering in below normal temperatures. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Normal highs are in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be very cool ranging in the low to mid 50s. Friday, The next shortwave and associated cold front will approach the Mississippi Valley. The front may produce showers or thunderstorms but moisture wiil be limited with this system. There is uncertainty with the timing of the frontal passage but this will become clearer as we get closer to the event. Behind the front, skies will clear and a reinforcing shot of cool high pressure will build into the mid west. High temperatures will once again be pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Labor Day Weekend, Skies should be dry as high pressure settles in over the area. High temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 50s. Below normal temperatures, along with a northerly breeze, will make for a fall-like Labor Day weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Scattered showers associated with an upper level system will affect all terminals this evening with prevailing VFR conditions. Conditions are then expected to deteriorate overnight as an advancing warm front brings widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities into MVFR range or possibly lower. There will be a potential for at least isolated showers through the night. Monday, the low clouds may linger through much of the day and the forecast has a low confidence trend improving ceilings from IFR in the morning to MVFR in the afternoon. Another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected to reach the area by late afternoon, but more likely evening. These are advertised at all sites with prob30 groups at the end of the forecast period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Sheets SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...Kuhl AVIATION...Sheets
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday night, blustery and mild on Tuesday, then windy and much cooler Wednesday. Slow progression of the large scale pattern is expected for the next few days as an upper trough pushing into the area from the west undergoes strong amplification. The trough will slow mid- week as it closes off into an upper low over western Ontario. The bulk of the energy within the trough will lift toward northeast Canada late in the week, leaving weakening cyclonic upper flow across the area. The main precipitation event will occur with the frontal system crossing the area early in the period with only a few rounds of scattered light showers are expected thereafter. The result will probably be near to slightly below normal amounts for most locations. Despite day-to-day temperature variations due to the passage of individual weather systems, readings will probably end up near of slightly below normal for the period as a whole. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a sprawling high pressure system departing over the northeast conus early this afternoon. Onshore southeast flow around this massive high and daytime heating has produced another day of widespread fair weather clouds across the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow aloft ahead of shortwave energy moving over southeast Minnesota and an MCV over eastern Kansas is pushing higher moisture into southwest Wisconsin. A narrow band of showers is accompanying the leading edge of the more moist air, and its possible that some of these showers will reach into central Wisconsin late this afternoon or early evening. Will add a slight chance. As shortwave energy moves into the region, followed by an approaching cold front late on Monday, forecast concerns revolve around timing precip chances and whether a severe threat will develop. Tonight...Weak moisture convergence on the leading edge of the more moist air will lead to a chance of light showers or sprinkles over central to north-central WI this evening. Not sure how far east to carry slight chances of precip, as the moisture convergence generally weakens through the night. After a brief lull in the precip chances, the higher resolution guidance indicates that showers will expand over northern Illinois into southeast Wisconsin overnight, which will then approach east- central WI by early Monday morning. No firm consensus on this scenario, but given the showers over Illinois this afternoon, think this is a reasonable scenario. Lows will be warmer and mostly range from the low 50s near the U.P. border to the low 60s over the southern Fox Valley. Monday...Details remain murky in general. Many of the higher resolution models indicate the MCV over eastern Kansas will lift northeast across eastern Wisconsin during the day. If this occurs, marginal severe weather chances would become even lower. Otherwise, much of central and northern Wisconsin stand a decent bet of remaining dry during the morning. With 400 to 600 j/kg of cape moving in from the west during the afternoon ahead of a cold front, chances for thunderstorms will gradually increase across central and north-central WI. Deep layer shear will also be increasing into the 30-35 kt for thunderstorms to work with if any can develop. But with the cloud cover and potential for rain with the MCV, it is possible that thunderstorms will hold off into the evening with the approaching front. Temps will be similar to todays readings, though could be cooler over eastern WI if rain moves in during the morning. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The primary change in the guidance since yesterday has been to pull back significantly on the precipitation amounts during the next 36 hours. Timing has slowed a little as well. The decrease in QPF seems to primarily be related to the speed with which the primary forcing with the frontal system pushes through the area, and the fact it is now arriving well after dark. PWATs are still forecast to rise to AOA 1.5" for a time, so brief heavy rain is possible with the stronger convection. Although storm motion may be nearly parallel to the front, the front is expected to remain progressive. The main hydro issue will probably be ponding of water if the heavy rain occurs in urban areas. Gusty winds will be possible with the storms, with the potential for severe being limited at best. The default forecast initialization grids based on a broad-based blend of guidance products seemed reasonable for temperatures. In addition to QPF adjustments toward the latest guidance, also adjusted PoPs up some as the upper trough settles into the area mid-week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 A storm system remains on track to impact the region from late tonight into Monday, but details remain murky. It appears that the system will impact the area in pieces. The first piece may pass over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore areas in the morning, with rain and isolated storms, and mvfr cigs/vsbys. More showers and storms then look possible across much of the area from late afternoon into Monday night. At this point have placed in PROB30 groups for the morning across the east then TEMPO groups later in the afternoon when IFR conditions are possible with heavier showers. Across the west the best chance looks to be later in the morning and into the afternoon hours as the main system approaches. Although thunderstorms will be possible at times, coverage is too isolated to include in this set of TAFs. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for WIZ022-040-050. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1013 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 - Showers and a few thunderstorms Monday - 2 inches of rain possible in spots Tuesday morning - A final shot of precipitation possible Wednesday and breezy && .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 A quick look at some of the 00z data from satellite loops, the 21z SPC SREF and the 00z RAP model tell me that our overall on-going forecast is in good shape. It will rain over most of our CWA by early to mid afternoon. The lead southern stream shortwave, being forced northward by the income Pacific system, streams precipitable water values to around 1.9 inches by mid afternoon into our CWA. The moisture transport vectors from the 00z RAP still suggest the rain will be over most of our central and southern CWA by early afternoon. The near 700 mb condensation pressure deficit falls to near zero mb by 2 pm at Grand Rapids. The Specific Humidity rises from under 2 g/kg at 8 am to near 8 g/kg by 2 pm at Grand Rapids. The combination of the those two features alone suggests rain. The best instability remains over the western CWA and the most unstable cape does not get over 500 j/kg north and east of Grand Rapids through 8 pm Monday. Most of the day it stays under 500 j/kg over the entire CWA. So it`s questionable if we would have any thunderstorms till mid afternoon and then it would be south and west of GRR. That matches the SPC SREF 3 hour thunderstorm probability forecast too. Bottom line is our forecast overall looks on track. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 -- Showers and a few thunderstorms Monday -- Models remain consistent with timing showers and thunderstorms into the area after sunrise Monday and spreading northeast during the day. Thunderstorms shouldn`t be widespread but they are a concern. Forecast reasoning: Instability doesn`t look overly impressive and there is much dry air to overcome. Still, there is a potent upper low over the southern Plains that will lift north and a strong upper PV anomaly crossing Montana that will provide plenty of dynamic lift and should induce a moisture laden southeasterly low level jet during the day Monday. The low-level shear is a little troubling in terms of quick spinups that have a non-zero chance of occurring with the right type of outflow boundary interaction. -- 2 inches of rain possible in spots Tuesday morning -- Chances are increasing for brief but intense rainfall Tuesday morning with local amounts exceeding 2 inches in spots. This could impact the morning commute and nuisance flooding will also be possible. The best guess for location is currently from the Muskegon area northeastward. However, given the localized nature of the precipitation, we are far from certain exactly where this would occur. Forecast reasoning: Focus for rain will be associated with a cold front and a narrow unseasonably moist plume of moisture ahead of the front. Deterministic models show a sharp digging upper trough with attendant strong mid-level frontogenesis resulting from compression and rotation of the thermal gradient. Precipitation efficiency will be boosted by high precipitable water values. Rain rates could be impressive in spots, with 2 inches an hour or more not out of the question. Fortunately durations at any given location should be curtailed by the expected steady progression of the front. -- A final shot of precipitation possible Wednesday and breezy -- We included a slight chance of rain showers mainly north of Muskegon and near the lakeshore. Timing could be in the morning or in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts should be light and wind should be quick to diminish later in the day. Forecast reasoning: A distinct upper potential vorticity lobe will sweep east across Lower Michigan at the base of a sharp upper low. Given the stacked nature of this system, 850 mb temperatures will be cool, especially farther north, and marginally favorable for lake enhanced rain. There is some minor disagreement among models regarding timing of the lobe. What`s more certain is the upper low exiting the area later in the day to be replaced by dry northwest flow aloft and a loosening surface pressure gradient. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 724 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 I expect sold VFR conditions through 09z at all TAF sites. After 09z the clouds from the system moving toward us from the south start moving in. The way this system is moving in, area near and west of US-131 will see the MVFR to IFR first. The TAF sites near I-69 will be the last to see those conditions. Rainfall may be locally heavy near the Lake Michigan shore from late morning into and through the afternoon. Muskegon is most likely to have IFR or even LIFR in rain and fog by mid afternoon. Most sites will be at least MVFR with cigs by 21z. Solid IFR cigs are expected after 00z at all TAF sites. The risk for thunderstorms Monday at our TAF sites seems rater low but it is not zero. That is due to the instability not forecast to be all the high. Also with all the clouds from the system the afternoon heating will be a non issue, which will also limit the risk of thunderstorms. It will become breezy Monday and by afternoon winds at the surface will be in the 15 to 25 knot range with some gusts to near 30 possible by mid to late afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 We are increasingly concerned about wind and waves on Wednesday, which will mark a full day of elevated wind and waves beginning Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms combined with cool waters may limit beach activity Tuesday, but drier conditions and recovering water temperatures with strong onshore winds Wednesday may be a different story. As noted before, a small craft advisory will likely beginning early Tuesday, but will let subsequent shifts hammer out the details. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...TJT DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...WDM MARINE...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
715 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to increase evening rain chances along and west of the Mississippi River. && .DISCUSSION... Radar trends show area of convection lifting north across the southwest Delta counties. This region is still well ahead of an approaching shortwave crossing the Ozarks...and the associated lift will keep activity going through midnight along and west of the Mississippi River. Have updated rain chances accordingly. All other parameters are currently on track. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/ DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/ A fairly active radar will only likely become more active over the next hour or two, then storms should begin to decrease in coverage and intensity late this afternoon. Storms are moving a bit faster than I expected to see earlier this morning, reducing the threat of flooding across the area. Nevertheless with Precipitable water values around 2 inches locally heavy rainfall is possible and if multiple storms track across the same location flooding is possible. 20-30 mph wind is also possible from thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat of severe storms looks minimal. Most high temperatures across the Midsouth should be in the middle 80s, but much of the area should get some relief from rain cooled air and or thunderstorms outflow, knocking temperatures back down into the 70s. A few showers may linger through the night with additional redevelopment tomorrow as temperatures warm back into the middle 80s. It is very hard to predict coverage of storms this time of year with the lack of any well defined surface boundaries, but at this time it looks like coverage should be as significant as today. Highs should be in the middle 80s once again. Tuesday, a cold front is expected to approach from the North. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along this feature. The threat of severe storms looks minimal. It doesn`t look significantly cooler Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, but a drier airmass will move into the region. Some dew points may drop into the upper 50s, but most of us will be in the 60s. Highs will remain in the middle to upper 80s. However, those lower dew points along with North wind will make conditions feel cooler. A few showers may linger Wednesday in North Mississippi, but Thursday and Friday look dry as surface high pressure settles over the area with weak Northwest flow aloft. For the weekend, guidance is in poor agreement. The ECMWF is wetter featuring a deeper trough over the region with the GFS maintaining weak Northwest flow. Will feature slight chance pops for now with near normal temperatures. 30 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Set Convection has developed across much of the CWA. The only TAF site that might escape being impacted this evening is KMEM. HRRR shows convection eventually shifting to areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi tomorrow. Will continue with vicinity wording at KMKL and KTUP for much of the TAF period. MVFR CIGS will spread over the entire Mid-South by 05-06Z. CIGS will be gradually lift through the day. Winds will become light and variable this evening. Winds tomorrow will be from the SSE at 5-10 KTS. KRM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Forecast concern is overall precipitation timing/amounts with piecemeal trough through Monday evening. Currently, we have leading short wave trough moving through western MN generating fairly widespread light showers. Expect this trend to continue into the evening as it lifts slowly northeast. Will mention scattered wording for now. This trough lingers over the northeast CWA into tonight and will likely hold onto some low end PoP for lingering light showers. Then timing of next main upper trough continues to slow it eastward progression. Will bring in higher end PoPs over west central MN mainly after 06z Mon and then move slowly east to eastern MN around 12z. Hires solutions continue to bring at least a line of scattered/broken showers/thunder ahead of the trough into central MN. The latest iteration of the HRRR continue to back off on any real higher end PoP overnight and waits really until near 12z to develop activity to the west. Confidence is low on that happening at the moment with the HREF and various deterministic models still driving the activity into at least central MN by Monday morning. Thunder threat remains rather low with little instability noted over southern MN in the more cloudy/showery regime. Will bring chance thunder out west later tonight/mainly after 06z it appears. The trough moves into eastern MN Monday morning and we should be able to generate at least widespread showers over the central and east much of the day. This will limit temperatures to the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs. QPF remains similar in overall placement but models continue to diverge on overall amounts. We came out with a pretty much widespread 1 to 1.5 inch accumulation for the event across the northern 2/3rd of the CWA. Still wouldn`t be surprised to see some 2 inch totals where the upper trough/deformation remains longest. Placement on this would be from around Willmar/St Cloud to Little Falls area. Another secondary max could develop into west central WI into Monday afternoon as the main trough moves in. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Well-defined cold front will be situated over the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi River Valley by daybreak Tuesday morning with the bulk of the precipitation off to the east. The surface low over far east-central Manitoba province will continue to slowly slide northeast across Hudson Bay Tue-Thu, with a trailing weak surface trough expected to swing east over northern MN/WI Tue into Wed. This will result in some scattered weak instability showers underneath the cold pool Tuesday afternoon. Some of these showers may produce up to around 0.10" QPF, particularly north of I-94. The precip looks to end by Tuesday evening then dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with precipitation remaining north of the WFO MPX coverage area. In addition to the showers, breezy conditions can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient setting up over the area between the departing potent low pressure system and incoming high pressure from the west. High pressure will then prevail across the north-central CONUS from late Wednesday on through the weekend. A weak cold front will drop through the region late Thursday into Friday, but this will be a dry front, with dry conditions continuing through next weekend. Temperatures will generally remain below normal, with highs around 70 every day except Thursday which will have highs hit the mid-to-upper 70s in advance of the dry cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Primarily VFR with dry conditions, but could see a few MVFR ceilings and light sprinkles this evening and overnight. On Monday an area of rain will spread across the region from the southwest, and should have clouds lower as well. There is enough instability to mention thunder in the tafs on Monday. Should see ceilings lift from west to east during the evening. KMSP... Did push back the timing of MVFR clouds since the guidance seems to be a little to quick based on the current trends. It also appears like the best chance for thunder will be during the early afternoon. Could see VFR conditions return Monday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR with afternoon MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind W at 20G30 kt. WED...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15G25 kt. THU...VFR. Wind WSW at 10G20 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...JRB