Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/16/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1045 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms tonight. Warm and humid conditions will be in place tomorrow through the weekend with a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Warm, but potentially unsettled weather will continue into next week as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM EDT...A batch of showers with some embedded thunderstorms continues to move across central NY into eastern NY as of 0230 UTC. The activity has been most concentrated over the Schoharie and western Mohawk Valleys northeast into the southern Adirondacks, and Lake George Region. The convection has shown signs of weakening with generally less than 1000 J/kg of instability per the SPC RAP mesoanalysis. The 0-6 km bulk shear weakens downstream towards Albany with generally 20-25 kts which is supported by the 00Z KALY sounding. The latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest have the activity rapidly diminishing between 03Z- 06Z/FRI especially north and west of Albany. We increased the POPs to likely and categorical values in these areas. Some rainfall rates will generally be in the 0.25-0.50"/hr range with heavier showers/isolated thunderstorms. We did keep some slight chance to low chance PoPs in between 06Z-10Z with the boundary still south of the region, and the tail of the short-wave trough moving through. Humidity levels will start to increase, and some patchy fog is possible due to recent wet soils, and the increasing low-level moisture. Lows will be in the 60-65F range in the valley areas, and mid to upper 50s over the elevated terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The pattern will remain rather similar through the entire short term period, with our region remaining within the fast west- southwest flow aloft. Our region will remain on the northern edge of the strong ridging in place across the central and eastern CONUS, so several quick moving upper level disturbances will be passing through the flow from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. This will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday, with the highest coverage generally during the afternoon and evening hours. With the strong winds aloft, 0-6 km bulk shear will continue to be 30 to 40 kts each day. However, instability still looks fairly limited, as rather warm temps aloft will keep instability to just about 1000 J/kg or less, along with fairly poor mid level lapse rates. While storms look to be around each day, the threat for widespread severe weather looks limited. However, with the warm and humid air mass in place, can`t totally rule out a rogue gusty pulse storm, as well as the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Temps look fairly seasonable, with valley highs in the lower 80s on Friday and Saturday (70s across the high terrain). Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Dewpoints will be starting to feel rather muggy, with values generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Hot and humid conditions look increasingly likely through at least next Tuesday, as mid/upper level ridging continues to build across the southeastern U.S. extending northward into the northeast. Uncertainties remain in timing and southward extent of shortwaves traversing the Great Lakes and southern Canada through early next week, which would modulate chances of showers/storms, especially across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT which will be closer to any of these passing features. If these disturbances remain farther north and west, stronger mid level capping could limit shower/thunderstorm coverage through Tuesday, especially southeast areas. For now, will indicate isolated to scattered coverage of mainly afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday due to these uncertainties. Model consensus suggests a stronger shortwave and attendant cold front may approach/pass through the region sometime later Wednesday into early Thursday, so will indicate slightly greater coverage of showers/storms during this period, with decreasing coverage possible by later Thursday. High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s across higher terrain areas. Dewpoints should remain in the 60s to lower 70s through this period, resulting in maximum heat indices of between 95-100 for many valley areas. Should confidence increase that these maximum heat indices will occur, then heat advisories would be needed. Will address this potential in the HWOALY. With the potential for more clouds and showers Wednesday, it may be slightly cooler for highs, mainly in the 80s. By Thursday, highs may cool into the 70s to lower 80s, or perhaps even cooler depending on the timing of the next cold front and how far south/east the next airmass extends. Overnight lows Sunday-Wednesday mornings mainly in the 60s, although perhaps only lower 70s within portions of the Hudson River Valley. Temps should cool into the 50s to lower 60s by Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An approaching upper level disturbance from the west will trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening for KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. Another upper level disturbance could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon. Showers continue expanding east/northeast and will continue to affect KGFL, KALB and KPSF through 04Z/Fri. There could be an embedded thunderstorm, but coverage of thunderstorms should remain limited and therefore will keep out mention in current TAFs. Locally heavy rainfall could occur, especially at KGFL. After 04Z/Fri, showers should taper off. Low clouds/fog may then form, especially at KPOU and KGFL, where IFR/LIFR conditions are possible. Elsewhere, mainly MVFR to IFR conditions are expected, especially for Cigs. On Friday, MVFR/IFR stratus may persist until late morning, especially at KPOU. Expect mainly VFR conditions for the afternoon. However, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, especially for KGFL and KALB. Light/variable winds overnight will trend into the southeast to south at 5-10 KT Friday. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Thanks to a couple of passing upper level disturbances, there will be a threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. RH values only look to lower to 50 to 60 percent each day during the afternoon and winds will be fairly light. During the overnight hours, RH values will recover close to 100 percent, and some dew and fog formation will be possible as well. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread hydrological issues on the main stem rivers are not expected the next several days. Through the weekend and into early next week, there will be a isolated to scattered threat for showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a threat for locally heavy downpours, especially by the weekend, as humidity levels and dewpoints will be increasing. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing flooding of urban, low lying or poor drainage areas. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis/Wasula LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL/NAS FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
854 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Weak shower activity continues moving over northeast Colorado with mostly virga and gusty winds. Brisk outflow from thunderstorms over the northeast corner of the stateis bringing wind gusts into the 20s into the Denver area along with dew points climbing into the lower 50s. Temperatures have cooled into the lower and mid 70s, so the airmass should remain too stable for any additional showers to develop as the outflow runs up against the foothills. Had updated the forecast to include isolated shower activity over parts of the northeast through about midnight, so no other updates are necessary. The latest HRRR doesn`t show any significant shower activity or any fog developing overnight. Just diminishing winds after the outflow boundaries run their course. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Hot dry air has pushed back into the I-25 corridor as expected. On the eastern part of the plains temperatures are cooler and the airmass will likely remained capped, with a slight chance of storms over the northern border and maybe the west part of the Palmer Divide early this evening. There is still a slight chance of tonight`s Nebraska MCS clipping the northeast corner of the state as well, though it will probably be further east. We still prefer an intermediate solution for the amount of cooling and moisture that comes in Friday morning. With less convection today, and those storms probably east of our area, the threat of fog making it all the way in to Denver looks less than it did before. The cooler temperatures will mean the we will likely be capped most of the day tomorrow, but there will probably be enough moisture for some storms late in the day and a better chance in the evening. With better moisture, when we do get storms there would be a threat of severe storms with CAPEs ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. The highest CAPEs may actually be closer to the mountains in the late afternoon/early evening if it gets warm enough, which is still uncertain. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Models have zonal flow aloft for the CWA Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday night, the upper ridge builds back into Colorado. There is a bit of weak upward synoptic scale energy for the CWA Friday night. There is downward energy in place Saturday night and Sunday. The low level winds are pretty weak through the period and generally adhere to normal diurnal trends with some downsloping mixed in. Moisture-wise, there is some around Friday evening, then it gets pretty sparse through Sunday night into the extended period. There is pretty decent CAPE in place over the plains Friday evening. There is way less for late day Saturday, the highest values over the southern CWA. For late day Sunday, there may be some CAPE over the far eastern border. For pops, will go with "scattered"s over the plains Friday evening, then 10-20%s over the western half of the CWA for late day Saturday. No pops for Sunday. For temperatures, Saturday`s highs are 1-2 C warmer than Friday`s. Sunday`s highs are 2-3 C warmer than Saturday`s. For the later days, Monday through Thursday, the upper ridge is centered right over Colorado all four days with pretty weak flow aloft. Monday is pretty dry but there is some increase Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures look to remain a bit above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 854 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Winds have shifted to the east and northeast with the arrival of outflow boundaries from northeast Colorado showers earlier this evening. Winds should remain out of the east for a few more hours and then become more southerly after midnight. No other aviation impacts are expected. However, with dew points now in the lower to mid 50s, if winds remain out of the east and skies clear out, then some radiation fog may develop. When winds transition to drainage southerlies, there should be enough drying to keep fog from forming. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The mountains will be dry again on Friday with a bit stronger winds than today. Gusts of 30 mph should be common in the afternoon, and minimum humidities will be around 15 percent. This will create marginal Red Flag conditions for much of the afternoon in the mountain valleys. Fuel conditions likely vary depending on recent rainfall, but in general they are getting to the point where rapid fire spread is possible with very high fire danger indices. Above normal temperatures and a drying airmass will create elevated fire weather weather conditions both Saturday and Sunday afternoons and early evenings. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ211-213-214. && $$ UPDATE...Dankers SHORT TERM.....Gimmestad LONG TERM......RJK AVIATION...Dankers FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad/RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1114 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move eastward into Canadian Maritimes overnight. Numerous upper level disturbances will move across the state Friday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the state later Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1115 PM Update... Temps were adjusted to fit the latest obs and conditions. The satl showed high clouds pushing ne. The latest sky forecast was matching up w/this situation quite nicely. Decided to push the precip chances back by at least 6 hrs as the latest RAP was matching up w/the regional radar showing rain well back across NYS. RAP showed rain moving into western areas by mid morning. Previous Discussion... The high pressure system will provide one more cool night before moving eastward into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday. Under a shallow inversion, lows will be in the low to mid 50s, but upper 40s are possible in cooler spots of Aroostook County. Some mid and high level clouds will arrive in northern zones just before sunrise and keep temps from dropping any lower. These clouds will be in association with an H700 trof propagating northeastward from Vermont. This mid level trof will be the main feature for Friday, bringing clouds and some shower activity with a weak baroclinic zone. The showers will be enhanced by the entrance region to a weak upper jet too. Nonetheless, both the upper level and surface trofs will rapidly decay as they move into the powerful high anchored in Maritime Canada. Most of the area will measure less than a tenth of inch of precip in the morning...if anything... except perhaps the Moosehead Lake region. No instability is expected and thunder remains out of the forecast. In spite of warm advection, the clouds and onshore flow will produce highs that are about the same or slightly lower than today`s readings. The other item of interest with the developing onshore flow will be the arrival of fog and stratus along the coast. For late tonight, it may reach the outer islands of Hancock County before retreating Friday morning. It will return Friday evening along the entire coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level westerly flow will be over the area Friday night through Sunday with several upper level shortwaves, while at low levels we will be under onshore southerly flow. Friday night...Marine layer setting up Downeast then moving inland. Widespread low clouds with some fog. Only a chance of light showers. Saturday and Saturday night...Weak upper level shortwave trough moves through Saturday afternoon and evening. This will bring an increasing shower chance. Went with likely PoPs in far North/Northwest Maine (best upper level dynamics), with chance PoPs elsewhere. Marine layer firmly entrenched thus only a small chance of thunder mainly extreme NW. Fairly muggy, but marine layer will keep temperatures down Saturday with highs around 70. Marine layer persists into Saturday night with areas of fog. Shower chances decreasing (but not totally going away) through the night as upper level shortwave exits. Sunday...Sunday`s a bit tougher day to pin down. Area seems to be in between upper level shortwave troughs in zonal flow. Airmass will be quite muggy, while marine layer seems to weaken a bit. If clouds can break some, could get storms, but if clouds persist, may just be a few showers and that`s it. Zonal flow in between shortwave troughs doesn`t really help convection. For now went with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers with a slight chance of storms. A bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday appears to be the most active day with a cold front moving through around late Monday. Doesn`t look like a strong system, but enough that put chance to likely PoPs in the forecast with a chance of storms as well. A bit less muggy on behind the cold front Tuesday with just a slight chance of showers, though can`t rule out cold front stalling out Downeast which would keep higher precip chances there if that were to happen. Model agreement goes down Wednesday through Friday. There is a recent model trend toward a decent upper level low diving southeast out of Quebec and toward our area, which would lead to increased precipitation chances especially Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday. However, as mentioned, still plenty of model disagreement and only trended forecast some toward this solution. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected. There is a chance of shallow fog near sunrise at HUL, BGR and BHB. The fog won`t last long. IFR cigs are possible at BHB by Friday evening. SHORT TERM: Friday Night... IFR ceilings likely Downeast with MVFR developing Northern Maine later in the night. Saturday...Likely remaining MVFR through the day Downeast and perhaps improving to VFR in the afternoon in the north. Saturday night...Widespread IFR ceilings, especially later in the night. Sunday...Improving to VFR most areas in the afternoon. Sunday night and Monday...Mostly MVFR with some IFR especially near the coast. Chance of storms. Monday Night and Tuesday...Improving to VFR most areas. Winds...Mainly light, except a bit breezy Monday afternoon with a cold front. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will remain light and seas will continue to run around 2 feet or less. Fog will become a concern later tonight...mostly towards coastal Hancock County. Any fog will dissolve in the morning, but will reform along the coast in the evening. SHORT TERM: Remaining below small craft. Fog will be an issue through Sunday, then gradual improvement Monday and Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near normal and it will be rather humid. By late in the weekend into early next week look for hot and humid conditions, especially across the southeast portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Radar shows numerous showers and thunderstorms breaking out under the strong August sun. The near term CAMs continue to advertise a noisy afternoon. RAP shows ML CAPE between 1500-2000J with moderate shear. SPC has issued a SWOMCD with a 40% of a watch. Isolated rotating storms will be possible as we progress into the afternoon. The highest threat will be for some gusty winds with the strongest storms along with brief heavy downpours. Convection will continue into the evening hours before decreasing in coverage and intensity later. It will be a muggy night with patchy fog if skies manage to clear at all. Lows will be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Weak upper troughing will once again tend to lead to mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Friday. Models develop moderate instability and shear so we could be looking at a virtual repeat of today. Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Prevalent zonal west-southwest flow aloft will persist from this weekend through the early part of next week before significant pattern amplification unfolds over the CONUS. A strong upper builds builds from the Four Corners region to the south central Plains by mid week. Downstream upper troffing will be prevalent over much of the GLAKS and eastern seaboard, with perhaps a trend towards slightly less heat and humidity late next week. It still looks quite warm however. Initially, a very warm air mass should build north and east into PA this weekend with heat indices by Sunday likely topping 90F over much of the southeast. Mainly diurnal convection chances persist each day, although in this pattern most areas will remain dry at any given time, and scattered afternoon/evening variety is favored. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Most of the area as improved to VFR, and any impacts going into the evening will be confined to those terminals that experience a hit from the scattered thunderstorms that are breaking out. Low clouds and fog are expected to bring more widespread restrictions again tonight into early Friday morning, with Friday afternoon seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms developing once again. .Outlook... Sat-Tue...VFR. Isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms possible, mainly in the afternoon/early evening hours. Late night and early morning fog/low clouds. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...DeVoir
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A couple strong to severe storms moving across northern Goshen county presently. These likely set off by the southern fringe of a shortwave moving across South Dakota as well as a diffuse outflow boundary. Some question as to how far they will progress into the Panhandle the rest of the afternoon. Of more concern is the likelihood for another round of strong convection later this evening/tonight up north as another shortwave passes by, a similar setup to last night. Activity should move out of the CWA very late tonight or early Friday morning. Friday and Saturday will continue to have a chance for convection mainly east of the mtns but should be isolated. Sufficient shear and instability for a few strong to severe storms but forcing remaining rather low. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A warmer and mainly dry weather regime should build into the area Sunday into early next as the upper high builds over the region and the stronger westerlies lift well north of the area. Chances for isolated mainly late day showers and storms should return by midweek as a bit of moisture lifts northward into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Nocturnal thunderstorms and low flight categories look to return to the Nebraska Panhandle and KCYS tonight...similar to what we had this morning. HRRR guidance showing this as well as LAMP MOS guidance. Generally followed both of these forecast tools for the 18Z TAFs today. Looks like KAIA could get hit pretty good this evening as HRRR simulated radar shows a severe storm moving through KAIA around 08Z. Still too early to put that in the KAIA TAF...but later shifts may need to add. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Little change is seen in the weather conditions through the weekend with critical to near critical conditions looking to remain confined to southwestern Carbon county. Another round of showers and storms is expected mainly over east central Wyoming across the northern Nebraska panhandle tonight with more isolated activity east of the mountains Friday and Saturday. Mainly dry and warmer conditions will move in Sunday and continue into early next week. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ304. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for WYZ304. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 H5 analysis this morning had High pressure anchored along the AZ/NM border. North of this feature, broad westerly flow extended from the Pacific NW, east southeast into the Ohio Valley. Within this flow, three distinct shortwaves were noted this morning. The first was over Nebraska, a second over eastern Montana, and a third over Washington state. As of midday, WV imagery had the Nebraska shortwave over SE Nebraska. The Montana wave was just about to enter western North Dakota and the Washington state wave, was crossing the Idaho panhandle. Strong subsidence was noted in the wake of the Nebraska shortwave today, and has led to clear skies across western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 75 at North Platte to 83 degrees at Valentine. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 An active pattern will continue over the next 24 to 36 hours across the high plains. Convective cloudiness in association with the Dakota shortwave continues to develop currently over eastern portions of Wyoming. This activity will approach western portions of the forecast area around 4-6 PM CT this evening per the latest HRRR and NAMNEST solns. As this activity works east into west central and central Nebraska mid evening, mid and upper level dynamics weaken quite a bit where widespread thunderstorms were earlier today. More widespread thunderstorm chances will arrive during the overnight hours. A strong shortwave, currently crossing the Idaho panhandle, will dive to the southeast into Wyoming this evening. Strong mid level warm air advection in advance of this feature, will overspread eastern Wyoming and the Panhandle during the mid to late evening hours. Favorable lift will transition to the east southeast overnight across the forecast area with precipitation chances continuing into the overnight. As for the severe threat: Steep mid level lapse rates and decent elevated CAPE is noted in the panhandle and eastern Wyoming this evening, which would be very favorable for large hail. However, once you travel east of the panhandle, mid level lapse rates and CAPE values drop rapidly. This would limit the hail threat across western and north central Nebraska tonight. The threat for strong thunderstorm winds appears limited as well as the best D CAPE is confined over far swrn Nebraska this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to exit the forecast area Friday morning with a brief lull in storms for most of Friday afternoon. By late afternoon, thunderstorms will begin to develop across nern Colorado INVOF of a surface boundary and thetae ridge. This activity will ride east into the evening hours with the best chances for precipitation being across southwestern portions of the forecast area. As activity transitions east across the forecast area, it will encounter limited CAPE and weaker lapse rates, which should limit the severe threat. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A northern stream low and trough of low pressure aloft will approach and track through the forecast area Saturday into Saturday night with another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Starting Sunday, high pressure aloft will build into the southern Rockies and southern Plains. H5 Hts will rise 80 to 100 meters from Sunday into Monday. This will lead to drier and warmer conditions across the forecast area through Tuesday. Ridging in the central CONUS will begin to break down midweek next week as a trough of low pressure deepens across the PAC NW. As lead shortwaves lift across the intermountain west, the high will retreat south. This will result in cooler temps and an increased threat for precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Isolated thunderstorm activity this evening becomes scattered after midnight and lasts through noon Friday. This thunderstorm activity is associated with an upper level disturbance, currently operating across nwrn WY/swrn MT, which will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska later tonight. An area of IFR/local LIFR in fog may form south of Interstate 80, 09z-15z Friday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1016 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will remain stalled to the west through Friday then dissipate over the region this weekend. High pressure offshore will dominate early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM Thursday...Scattered thunderstorms still confined to the northern tier of the CWA from Martin County east along the Albemarle Sound, and over the central Outer Banks. High- resolution models continue to struggle with placement and extent of convection and will use a combination persistence/consensus approach for the near term forecast. Think the current convection over the northern tier will wane in the next hour or two with a lull in convection overnight, except for perhaps a few light showers. HRRR and 3km NAM show convection refiring near the coast toward morning (09z and later) before working its way inland later tomorrow morning. PoPs have been adjusted to reflect this trend, although confidence is still fairly low. Heavy downpours will be possible in any of the stronger storms as precipitable water values remain well over 2 inches. Lows continue above climo, in the mid/upr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thu...The front will remain stalled just to the west Friday, as shortwave energy continues to rotate through the upper flow. Deeper moisture will shift toward the coast as low level southerly flow continues. Scattered showers expected, with best chances in the morning along the coast. Heavy rain possible along the coast early. Low level thickness values, cloudy skies, and southerly flow support highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Thu...A cold front will dissipate N of the region thru weekend with sct shra and tsra from time to time espcly cst. Ridging over the Atlantic will extend over the area early to mid next week with wdly sct to sct convection and typical summertime heat and humidity. Fri night through Sun...Better moisture begins to shift to cst late in week into the weekend as front dissipates N of area. Will keep chc pops mainly for the cst this weekend with slight chc inland. No signif airmass change with highs upr 80s/lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Mon thru Wed...Ridging over the Atlantic will dominate this period. Mdls do show weakness aloft to the W and this may at times lead to some increased chc of convection but overall looks like typical summertime pattern of wdly sct to sct convection with better chcs inland in aftn and evening. Temps will cont near to slightly above normal with upr 80s and lower 90s for highs and muggy 70s for lows. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through 00z Saturday/... As of 625 PM Thursday...Very low confidence TAF this cycle with many different solutions with regards to coverage and extent of convection during the next 24 hours and its impact on flight operations. Using a consensus of the HRRR and NAM 3km shows the current scattered convection waning a bit overnight before redeveloping near the coast early Friday morning, then translating inland during the afternoon. Deep low-level moisture and a wet ground from early convection will lead to patchy IFR at KPGV, KISO and KOAJ and MVFR fog at KEWN for the 09z-12z period in the morning. Will include VCTS in all TAFs starting around midday on Friday. Long Term /Fri night through Tuesday/... As of 230 AM Thu...Deeper moisture begins to shift mainly E of taf sites Fri into early next week with less shra/tsra coverage and mainly VFR. As usual some patchy fog/st poss late night/early morn with high dewpts and rather light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 1015 PM Thursday...Wind directions a bit confused at late evening due to convection, but generally are SE over the northern zones and SW over southern marine areas. Seas continue at 2-3 feet. Wind speeds are mostly 5-15 knots. Front will remain to the west through Friday and SW 10-15 kt will continue across the waters. Seas will remain 2-4 ft overnight and continue into Fri. Long Term /Fri night through Tuesday/... As of 230 PM Thu...Models are trending a bit stronger with the SW winds Friday night into the first part of Sat. The GFS and NAM are quite a bit stronger than other guidance, developing SCA conditions, winds 20-25 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. Increased winds from previous forecast, still some uncertainty but a period of SCA could develop. Front will dissipate to the N with offshore high pres cont to dominate. This will lead to mainly S to SW winds 8 to 15 kts thru pd with 2 to 4 foot seas. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
604 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Short term concerns remain severe convective potential into this evening. Latest short range HIRES models showing potential for bowing complex moving into southwest MN early this evening. Have trended PoPs this way at the moment. MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg ahead of the front over eastern South Dakota along with forecast shear to 35 kts or so into southwest MN would favor some sort of severe potential. If a cold pool develops along the convective line, a bowing structure would be likely per HRRR trends. Heavier cumulus over eastern MN may yet yield an isolated shower/thunder late this afternoon/evening. SPC SWOMCD earlier indicated possible WW into SW MN for the evening. Will continue to monitor overall trends. The upper trough moves east into western WI by Friday morning. The convective potential should gradually wane through 06z Fri as the system moves east. CLouds and some fog is possible as the system exits to the east late. Bufkit profiles suggest lower humidity to remain much of Friday morning before lifting, especially to the east. The front exits over Wisconsin by Friday afternoon and should take most of the convective threat with it. Various HIRES models along with the deterministic models develop some convective potential into eastern MN again later Friday afternoon. Instability increases and we may see a weak convergence trough develop over eastern MN late afternoon which could trigger at least some isolated thunder. Will include a low end PoP for this possibility. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Showers and thunderstorms continue to look possible this weekend, as an upper-level low over northern Alberta/manitoba drags a cold front across the region. Models have come into better agreement with the timing of the front, with the best chance for precipitation now looking like Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Some uncertainty still exists on how widespread showers and thunderstorms will be along the front, as central/southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will be split between areas of better forcing with the upper level low to our north and a shortwave tracking to our south. Moisture return into the Upper Midwest looks to be rather paltry as well as a stationary front across Iowa/Illinois will block the flow of Gulf moisture into the region. Will continue to keep PoPs in the chance range saturday evening to Sunday morning, with further refinement expected as we are able to add higher resolution CAMs into the forecast. Not expecting any heavy rain or severe weather concerns with the lack of deep Gulf moisture over the region, although will have to watch the shortwave to our south and potential for stronger storms across southern Minnesota if guidance shifts its track farther north. Beyond Sunday, the forecast looks drier as zonal aloft transitions to drier northwest flow thanks to ridging building into the central US. Guidance has shown some consistency with developing a convective complex Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave rounds the periphery of the ridge to our southwest. Will keep PoPs low as there is little confidence in resolving the details with mesoscale features at this range. Temperatures will generally be warmer next week as heights rise and southerly flow develops over the region, but we may see a brief cool-down midweek as troughing develops over eastern Canada and its influences extend into the western Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Showers and thunderstorms look to spread east across the area tonight. Strong winds appear possible at western sites (KRWF and KAXN) as the line of storms moves through, but should see decreasing intensity with eastward progression. Attendant MVFR conditions are expected with the precipitation, with MVFR/IFR ceilings persisting overnight in the wake of the precipitation. May see areas of fog with MVFR visibilities as well. Improvement to VFR will occur late Friday morning and afternoon. South/southwest winds shift to west/northwest for Friday. KMSP... Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms between 05Z and 09Z, with MVFR ceilings in the wake of the precipitation. Expect ceiling to improve to VFR around 17Z Friday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SW 10 kts. Sun...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind S 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...ETA AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 418 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad trough through the northern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough was moving east of Upper Michigan while the next significant shrtwv was located over the central Dakotas. Although low level moisture was limited, SBCAPE values in the 250-500 J/Kg range with daytime heating was enough to support some sct/isold -shra over the west half of Upper Michigan. Tonight, expect any lingering -shra over central Upper Michigan to dissipate this evening with the loss of dayimte heating. After a period of favorable radiational cooling allows temps to drop into the lower 50s inland, increasing clouds late over the west half will keep readings from falling further. Some shra and possibly and isold tsra may move into the far west late. Friday into Friday night, sct/nmrs shra will spread through the area supported by moderate 700-300 qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv. Although cloud cover will limit surface heating, there may be enough elevated instability for a few tsra, similar to what was observed over North Dakota. Shra and a few tsra over the east should move east of the area by late evening with clearing moving into the west. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 347 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019 The large-scale long-term pattern initially looks to be a continuation of what we`ve seen the past several days: broad ridging stretching across most of the central and southern U.S., and an active northern stream across southern Canada with occasional dips in the jet that reach as far south as the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. That ridging builds all the way northward to near the Canadian border early next week before the pattern amplifies and the next system drops down across the Great Lakes towards the middle of next week. Yesterday`s battle between the EC and the rest of the guidance re: FROPA timing this weekend seems to be the EC`s favor. There will be a subtle mid-level short wave lifting northeastward into Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon, but with heights rising out ahead of it, plenty of dry air aloft, and all of the models dry through the day Saturday, have cleared out POPs - except for some chance POPs creeping in over far western Lake Superior in the afternoon. Therefore Saturday actually looks like quite a nice day now, with just a few clouds around and highs right around 80 for most. But ultimately that cold front and its associated shower/storm chances are delayed - not denied. The front should come through Sunday from west to east across Upper Michigan. And whereas yesterday I said the timing did not support organized or widespread thunderstorms, today I may have to eat my words. The slowing trend in the models allows much if not all of the region to destabilize up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE in the NAM, GFS, CMC, and EC. With 40-45 knots of 500 mb flow, 0-6 km bulk shear vectors in the above models all range from 35 to as high as 50 knots in the warm sector, suggesting strong to severe storm organization might be possible. PWATs rising above 1.5" also introduces a slight flash flood risk, but given the seasonably fast mid-level flow mentioned above, this risk would probably only materialize in an isolated instance or two of training storms. All that said, we`re still 3 days out and I suspect the FROPA timing might not be settled just yet either, so stay tuned. With high pressure behind this wave, have kept Monday dry and warm, but it`s a short-lived reprieve. The next short wave approaches Tuesday, but the model blend seems to bring PoPs in a bit early/too northerly Monday night, so have trimmed that back. Still think there will be at least a slight chance of showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon, though. Strong high pressure by August standards settles in Wednesday through the remainder of period. With 850 mb temps dropping to around 5 C behind this wave/cold front, the end of the week next week looks like some comfortable days and perhaps a few chilly nights, but given how far out this is, have not strayed far from the model blend for temps at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 747 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019 A few showers continue over western Upper Michigan this evening but will die off with the loss of daytime heating. Skies will stay VFR overnight, with the potential for MVFR ceilings with the next round of precipitation approach of the convective activity currently over the northern plains during the day. At KIWD, have included mention of BCFG for tonight as winds to be light and skies will clear for a period this evening. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 418 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019 Winds over the lake are expected to stay at or below 20 knots for the majority of this period. Models continue to show the chance at an active period of weather this weekend. Expect chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Latest model runs have backed off on the gusts for Sunday slightly but there still remains a fair chance at gusts up to 25 knots on Sunday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...lg/RJC AVIATION...RJT MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Isolated and weak convection developing across the San Juans at mid-afternoon, with a couple cells farther east on the plains in Las Animas County as well. Expect isolated activity to continue until sunset, with HRRR suggesting perhaps a stronger cell or two lingering toward midnight in Kiowa/Prowers counties where low level moisture/instability is greatest. Weak surface boundary then backs westward toward I-25 overnight, though lack of much in the way of organized convective outflow suggests any lower clouds and deeper moisture should stay farther east toward the KS border. On Fri, slightly stronger upper wave crosses the area, which should increase thunderstorm chances over most of the higher terrain in the afternoon. Rather meager low level moisture will still be the limiting factor for storms, with most activity fairly high based and weak. On the plains, deeper low level moisture and instability north of the Arkansas River and near the Kansas border may aide in the development of a few strong/severe storms late in the afternoon, especially Kiowa County which is clipped by the SPC SWODY2 slight risk for tomorrow. Max temps may drift down a degf or two at many locations Fri, as minor height falls push into the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 An upper disturbance will be exiting CO to the east late Fri evening with shower/tstms over the far southeast CO plains ending before 12Z Sat. Limited moisture over the area on Sat should lead to only some isolated chances for precip, mostly over the mtns, high valleys, and Palmer DVD. High temps on Sat will be in the 90s across the southeast plains, and in the lower to mid 80s in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys. Sun and Mon the upper ridge builds back over CO, and there will be little moisture over the area. Dry weather is expected both days, along with above average temps. Highs across southeast CO will be in the 90s, with lower 100s expected along the Arkansas River Valley from the Pueblo area to the KS border. The San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River Valley should see highs in the mid to upper 80s. Moisture is expected to move back into the area for Tue and Wed, and a weather disturbance is expected to move across the state on Wed. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to most of the area these day, but especially over the mtns. Thu precip should mostly be confined to the mtns and adjacent lower elevations. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very low risk of a tsra late this afternoon into early this evening at KALS, while drier air limits tsra chances at KPUB and KCOS. On Thu, deeper moisture remains just e-ne of the area, with only isolated afternoon convection expected over mainly the ern mts and plains. Again, chances for tsra look too low to mention in the taf. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Strong to severe storms across northeast Kansas are dropping south southeast and will at least pose some threat to parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight into Friday morning. Most of the latest data keeps the activity to our north and east, but the latest HRRR does show some development to the west across northeast Oklahoma Friday morning. Given current radar trends, feel some mention of showers and storms remains warranted, but did remove pops prior to 06Z, and lower them slightly between 06-12Z. The rest of the forecast looks good at this time. Update on the way. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....05 PLATE