Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/11/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
948 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2019 .UPDATE... Center of the MCV appears to be just west of Luna, NM this evening. This low will continue to slowly trek north-northeastward tonight, but latest HRRR and HREF runs suggest much of the precipitation will reside on the AZ side of the border. Additionally, the area has stabilized considerably from earlier convection, limiting the threat for additional heavy rain until potentially Sunday afternoon with daytime heating. Tweaked PoPs for the rest of the night and removed much of the heavy rain wording. Updates out shortly. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...615 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2019... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE An upper level disturbance will travel northward over western NM tonight and Sunday, then northeastward across north central NM on Sunday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor the continental divide region tonight, with a secondary focus on the plains south of TCC during the evening, and lesser activity along the east slopes of the central mountain chain during the evening. Spottier activity will be found elsewhere until Sunday afternoon, when showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across central areas with isolated activity on the far eastern plains. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2019... .SYNOPSIS... With this morning`s cloud cover clearing, storms have begun to develop along the western and south-central portions of the state. Precipitation coverage should fill in later this evening with some storms along the western portions of the state lingering into the morning hours and the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. However, Sunday looks to be the more active day with scattered to numerous storms along the central and western portions of the state. Drier air will work its way into the state Monday and Tuesday, limiting storm coverage. Some uncertainty exists past mid-week. Temperatures will remain below normal across the western half of the state, before rebounding by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... The burn off of this morning`s cloud cover allowed for many sites to reach their convective temperatures for the day. As a result, storms will get a late start across the state as a closed low over the Four Corners region recycled moisture across the state. Locally heavy rainfall is the main threat for today, along with the potential for flash flooding. Currently, there is a Flash Flood Watch out for portions of the southwest mountains and west central highlands through Sunday morning. Confidence was not high enough to extend the watch region further east. In addition, gusty winds and small hail may exist with these storms. CAPE values were marginal for this afternoon (mid- 1000s), but the bulk shear just wasn`t there for today to produce stronger storms. This morning`s 12z sounding showed a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 1.22", tying the daily mean record for August 10. Precipitable water is projected to spike up to 1.4" by Sunday afternoon, with a sharp drop off to 0.58" by Monday afternoon. This setup usually has the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding, with Sunday shaping up to be the more active day. The combination of slow moving storms, already saturated soil, and 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in less than an hour enhances this risk, especially over recent burn scars. Highs will be several degrees below normal over the western half of the state Sunday associated with the increased precipitation. Drier air begins to move into the state Monday and Tuesday, limiting storm coverage. The exception being a backdoor cold front that moves through the northeast corner of the state Monday evening. Temperatures will be on the increase across the state- several degrees near to above normal, but the biggest change being decreasing temperatures over the west. By mid- week, some model uncertainty exists. One solution is that the high moves back over the state Wednesday and Thursday, recycling moisture for afternoon thunderstorms over the high terrain. The GFS shifts the high to our east for the weekend with another return plume of monsoon moisture. The ECMWF is less enthusiastic with low level moisture with the placement of the high to the south of the state. To be continued... 31 && .FIRE WEATHER... A monsoon burst pattern with record moisture in place over NM is expected to bring widespread rainfall with localized flash flooding through late Sunday. Storm motions today will be slowly northward with training cells over central and western NM. An upper wave will move slowly eastward through NM Sunday and lead to the greatest coverage of heavy rainfall so far this season. Storm motions will be toward the north-northeast Sunday with more training cells possible. A much drier airmass will move into the state Monday and Tuesday in the wake of the departing upper wave. High pressure will build over southern NM which will trend temps above normal areawide. A weak back door front is expected to slide into eastern NM Monday which may keep storms going over the northeast plains into Tuesday. Model guidance beyond Tuesday is struggling with how to handle the upper level high and moisture evolution over the state through late week. $$ 42 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is anchored across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles. && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Amazingly high moisture content across central and SE zones early this afternoon, with the dewpoint reaching 77 at Dodge City. With temperatures soaring into the 90s as the sky clears, issued a short term heat advisory for the SE zones this afternoon. Temperatures will not be extreme, but such high moisture content will make any outdoor work dangerous through 7 pm. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Remaining stratus was continuing to dissipate as of midday, in an exceptionally moist boundary layer. Surface dewpoints ranged from the upper 60s on the higher terrain of the western counties, to the sultry mid 70s SE of Dodge City. The dewpoint reading of 74 currently here at WFO DDC is the highest dewpoint this forecaster has seen at this office in over 3 years. Instability will mount rapidly this afternoon as August sunshine interacts with near 70 dewpoints, with CAPE near 4000 J/kg by peak heating. With the lack of convergence or a focusing mechanism, expecting most locations to remain dry through 7 pm, but with such high octane moisture and explosive instability, can`t rule out a thunderstorm somewhere. With temperatures rising into the 90s, and dewpoints holding in the lower 70s, some locations south and east of Dodge City will flirt with heat advisory criteria (105F) this afternoon. Scattered convection is expected to begin west of a Wakeeney- Syracuse line by 7 pm, as a discernible shortwave approaches from the southwest. 12z NAM, with strong support from the latest HRRR iterations and 12z GFS, forecasts a strong MCS to impact the NE zones this evening. Raised pops to the definite category and mentioned heavy rain for the NE zones. Storms will be propelled right along, so although rainfall rates will be highly efficient with precipitable water approaching 2 inches, am currently leaning against a flash flood watch. Will continue to reevaluate this, as confidence is high that the MCS will occur near the I-70 corridor and moisture availability will be near the top of the charts. Will make a final decision on a flash flood watch by this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm coverage is expected to diminish with southward extent (especially south of US 50) with weaker forcing. The expected MCS is expected to kick out an outflow boundary and a NEly wind shift overnight, with strong NE winds possible at times across much of SW KS. Additional convection will likely develop along this advancing wind shift, but chances will diminish quickly south of US 50. Outside of the heavy rain/flooding threat tonight, the primary severe risk will be damaging outflow winds of 60-70 mph from any organized MCS bowing segments. SPC has expanded their 5% wind/hail probabilities southward to include most of SW KS tonight, but feel the damaging wind threat is highest north of US 50. Models warm 850 mb temperatures about +2C on Sunday, and with morning stratus currently expected to be restricted to the NE zones, some warming will likely occur Sunday afternoon over Saturday`s readings. Afternoon temperatures will make more efficient progress into the 90s, with continued uncomfortable humidity. The lack of a SWly downslope component, and plenty of recent rainfall at many locales, should keep most locations below 100. Most of daylight Sunday will be dry for most zones, with scattered thunderstorm favoring the western/NW zones Sunday evening. Forcing for convection lifts north late Sunday, and all models including the 12z NAM/GFS and 00z ECMWF show excellent agreement with Sunday PM`s MCS impacting SW Nebraska and NW Kansas, ie, mainly north of SW KS. Kept pop grids focused on the northern zones Sunday night, and even those may have to be reduced further and/or trimmed northward. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Active convective pattern will continue on Monday. 12z ECMWF places the summer subtropical anticyclone well to our SE over Arkansas on Monday, with a well-defined shortwave embedded in westerly flow crossing SW KS at peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected primarily central/SE zones Monday afternoon/evening. NBM pops in the chance category were accepted, which matches well with 5% wind/hail risks from SPC. With the enhanced flow/shear with the shortwave, will need to monitor Monday afternoon/evening for severe convection potential. Weak cold front associated with the shortwave will pass Monday night/early Tuesday with a shift to N/NE winds and a modest reduction in temperatures. Tuesday afternoon temperatures will be reduced to the upper 80s and lower 90s, although with light easterly wind components, the humidity will again be high. Expecting a lull in thunderstorm activity daylight Tuesday, given the subsidence behind the departing shortwave. Upper high near Arkansas late Monday retrogrades westward rapidly, with 12z ECMWF placing the new center near El Paso, Texas by late Tuesday. As such, a period of NW flow aloft is expected, which will encourage daily convection from the Rockies to arrive in the western zones, probably at night Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday will we drier, windier and hotter. Flow aloft becomes SWly, with the lee trough increasing in strength, as a strong trough crosses the northern Rockies. South winds will be strong and rain chances will dwindle under a building capping inversion. A few locations will again reach 100 by Friday afternoon. Alas, it is still summer. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Scattered thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage overnight near and north of a Garden City to Dodge City line. These storms overnight will be capable of producing periods of very heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities will be possible at times from the heavy rains, especially in the Hays area between 4z and 8z Sunday. Outside these storms overnight the ceilings will be in the 6000 to 10000 ft AGL level based on BUFR soundings. The winds will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots through at least midnight and then they will shift to the as an outflow boundary moves south across southwest Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 70 97 72 96 / 20 10 10 20 GCK 68 96 66 93 / 30 10 30 10 EHA 67 98 66 92 / 10 20 30 20 LBL 68 100 68 93 / 10 20 20 20 HYS 68 90 69 92 / 80 20 30 10 P28 73 101 76 101 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046. && $$ UPDATE...Turner SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 ...Storms possible through the evening hours... .UPDATE... Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed across central/n-central Iowa this evening. Environment in this area is somewhat favorable for severe storms with MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear greater than 35 kts. The limiting factor thus far appears to be lack of focused lift/ascent to initiate and sustain updrafts as well as relative poor low to mid level lapse rates which are limiting parcel accelerations. The latest CAM guidance from the HRRR continues to show the possibility for some uptick in severe potential through about 9pm or 10pm this evening, before diurnal stabilization occurs. Main threats appear to be gusty winds, and perhaps a brief funnel cloud or tornado. Fowle && .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/ Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Area of high pressure centered across Lake Michigan is departing the area to the east. On the backside, a warm front is lifting northeast through Iowa with dew points in the low to mid 70s now in place across the western half of the state. The atmosphere is beginning to destabilize in that region with ML CAPE values nearing 2500 J/kg. A boundary just entering northwest Iowa will continue to move east/southeast this afternoon and should help convective initiation over north central Iowa between 20-22z(3-5 pm CDT). Deep layer effective shear near 40 kts and the aforementioned instability may be enough for a few organized storms to develop and may have an attendant severe weather chance with damaging winds the primary threat. An isolated tornado is possible with good surface vorticity and 0-3km CAPE near 150 J/kg supporting vortex stretching along with low LCLs (<1000 m). The effective SRH is marginal at 100-150 m2/s2. Melting layers greater than 15 kft will inhibit large hail unless a rotating storm becomes sustained. The severe weather threat should wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Locally heavy rainfall may occur but no impacts are expected this round. The storms will move south/southeast overnight. Areal coverage will decrease though as storms move towards the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor. A few storms may linger over far southern Iowa early Sunday morning otherwise much of the day is expected to be dry with highs mainly in the upper 70s north to mid to upper 80s south. An intense low level jet picks up Sunday night across Kansas and Nebraska with a complex of storms expected to develop along the nose of the forcing in Nebraska. This complex is forecast to move into western Iowa late Sunday night/early Monday morning. PWAT values increasing to over 2 inches will be in place as these storm move into Iowa with widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible with this complex. At this time, northern Iowa is on target for the greatest chance for this precipitation and possibly south into central Iowa. The severe weather threat should be limited by saturated soundings dampening the instability and the storms should be slightly elevated limiting the wind threat. These storms will last into part of Monday before moving to the east. Beyond Sunday night and Monday, no widespread beneficial precipitation appears to be within the rest of the seven day forecast. Dry Canadian high pressure will arrive by mid week and persist through Thursday night bringing cool temperatures for Wednesday. A return to southwest flow should arrive by Friday with a few storms possible Saturday. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/ Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as of 00Z across portions of central and north-central IA. Storms have the possibility to impact KFOD/KALO/KMCW through about 06Z. Could see brief reductions to vsbys, gusty winds, and lower cigs during any heavier t-storm. Forecast more uncertain at KDSM/KOTM depending on how organized convection becomes and eventual storm track. Late tonight into early Sun, also expecting the possibility of fairly widespread IFR and even LIFR CIGS in stratus. Some fog is possible as well. Expecting conditions to improve back to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Winds will shift from southerly tonight to northwesterly behind fropa. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Fowle DISCUSSION...Donavon AVIATION...Fowle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Overall no significant changes to previous forecast in the short term portion of the forecast through Sunday. Latest satellite and radar trends late this afternoon continue to show NW to SE orientated broken band of light to moderate showers extending from central Minnesota to northwest Illinois. This activity is associated with weak 850-700 layer WAA and frontogenetic forcing. The aformentioned forcing has made little eastward progress during the day with the elevated weak shower activity weakening as it crosses the Mississippi River Valley into western Wisconsin. RAP analysis soundings also indicate a relatively deep dry layer that presists over much of Wisconsin and will take a while to saturate the column. Expect highand mid-level clouds to continue to work their way southeast across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening in association with weak shortwave trough and attendant surface frontal boundary. Short-term model guidance suggests that weak surface wave will move east across the southern portion of the forecast area overnight into early Sunday morning. Associated weak WAA and QG forcing should be strong enough to generate a bit more organized band of showers over central Wisconsin toward midnight which is then forecast to move east across mainly the southern half of the forecast area early sunday morning. Given weak forcing and limited moisture, expected generally modest rainfall amounts of perhaps up to a third of an inch particularly south of highway 29. Current RAP analysis indicates virtually no elevated instablity anywhere across the forecast area late this afternoon and forecast sounding suggest perhaps maybe a few hundred J/Kg of elevated CAPE when best forcing arrives late tonight. Prefer not to mention thunder overnight into Sunday morning given paultry forecast instablity. Surface waveand associated scattered light preciptation should exit the forecast area by late Sunday morning, however associated clouds will be a bit slower to depart thereafter. Stuck close to latest blended guidance for max temperatures on Sunday, generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 A synoptic scale low pressure system moving across northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan Monday night could produce a decent rain across the southern half of the forecast area and possibly a threat of flooding along the lakeshore and southern bay due to sustained northeast winds pushing water towards the shore. Water levels on the lake and bay are unusually high. Scattered showers will accompany a cold front Wednesday with cooler and drier air to follow for Thursday. An upper ridge building in from the Plains will bring warmer temperatures towards the end of the week, with higher dewpoints and some thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 light to occasionally moderate rain is expected to overspread all areas roughly south of a line from RRL to MNM tonight. As this occurs, ceilings are expected to steadily lower, and reach MVFR/IFR later tonight into Sunday morning. Given that the steady rain is not expected to reach RHI, will back off a bit on the low ceilings there. The rain should taper off from northwest to southeast late tonight into Sunday morning, but low clouds will persist through most of the day. Ceilings may improve to VFR in the northwest part of the forecast area during the late afternoon and evening. Patchy fog may develop late Sunday evening if partial clearing occurs. A few thunderstorms will affect central WI and the southern Fox Valley overnight into Sunday morning, but the threat should remain south of the TAF sites. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....ESB LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 .DISCUSSION... Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the Mid-South. The region is upstream of an upper level ridge which will continue to build east over the next several days. A dense fog advisory has been issued for the area from 11 pm to 9 am. Current OBs show some locations already dropping under a mile in visibility, dew point depressions have dropped to 1 degree across much of the area, and the HRRR also shows the fog potential as well. KRF && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... Updated for aviation discussion PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ Dangerous Heat Wave expected across the Mid-South Sunday through Tuesday... Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving southeast across north Mississippi and most of this activity should move out of the region later this afternoon. An upper level ridge which is currently centered over the central U.S. will start to edge more toward the east starting tonight. This will help keep things dry tonight across the region. Temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year with lows Sunday morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The ridge will continue to spread east on Sunday with dry weather and warmer temperatures expected. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values exceeding 105 degrees over a large area of the Mid-South. The ridge will continue to influence the weather across the region for Sunday night and Monday. No rain is expected across the Mid- South from Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures Sunday night will be quite warm with lows Monday morning in the 70s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 90s with Heat Index values expected to exceed 110 degrees over western sections of the Mid- South. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. By Tuesday, a cold front will start to approach the region. As it gets closer to the Mid-South, scattered thunderstorms may develop. Temperatures will remain on the hot side on Tuesday with Heat Index values likely exceeding 110 degrees over a large portion of the Mid-South. The cold front will move into the region Tuesday night bringing thunderstorms ahead of the front. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong or severe with damaging winds being the main threat. The cold front will move into north Mississippi Wednesday morning bringing more thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures will not be as hot on Wednesday. The front should be south of the region by Wednesday night with dry weather expected. The front will remain across central Mississippi on Thursday so a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over portions of north Mississippi. The frontal boundary will start to move back north on Friday so there will be a few thunderstorms around the region. The front may move back into the Mid-South next Saturday possibly bringing a few thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal for Thursday through next Saturday. ARS && .AVIATION... VFR conds this evening with IFR/LIFR conds likely developing later tonight in low clouds and fog. VFR conds will return by mid morning and continue to the end of the period. Winds will be light through the period. SJM && .AVIATION... && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. Excessive Heat Watch from 10 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday evening for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR- Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. Excessive Heat Watch from 10 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS- Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS- Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha. Excessive Heat Watch from 10 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate- Tunica. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall- Monroe-Pontotoc-Tippah-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll- Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman- Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison- McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. Excessive Heat Watch from 10 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday evening for Shelby. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Fayette- Hardeman-Haywood-Lauderdale-Tipton. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
739 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Updated suite of forecast products to remove late this afternoon wording from zone forecast product. Per regional satellite trends and latest HRRR model solution, kept ptcldy skies across southwestern portions of mid state region thru night. Tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. Current temp trends generally in line with mid state overnight forecasted low temp values. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions continue through at least 08Z at all terminals. Periods of MVFR fog possible at MQY/CKV between 11Z and 13Z. IFR conditions with periods of LIFR possible at CSV between 08Z and 14Z. All terminals return to VFR by 14Z. Light, northerly to northeasterly winds expected throughout the TAF period. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......31 AVIATION........MacDonald