Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/07/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
839 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Convection is all but gone across the CWA, save a few lingering showers over South Park. There`s a few boundaries roaming the plains from previous convection as well. Will clean out pops on the GFE grids based of real data. Will also amend some of the skies grids for the same. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 An upper high centered over the Old Mexico/New Mexico/Texas borders is extending a ridge axis northwest into Utah and Idaho putting a warm northwesterly flow aloft. Drier air has moved over our mountains and into the urban corridor with dew points in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A surface trough over the plains is helping to keep higher dewpoints over towards the eastern state border, also wrapping around into the northern Colorado plains. This will allow for drier thunderstorms containing gusty outflow winds over the mountains and urban corridor, especially southern parts, with wetter storms to the east with a potential for hail. Storms aren`t expected to last too far into the evening as we lose the suns heat and there isn`t any real energy aloft to keep them going. A disturbance moving south over the northern plains is expected to push in cooler air and more moisture into the area for Wednesday. Some lift from this may produce some showers and possible storms in Nebraska early Wednesday morning which may near our northeastern plains, but confidence is low in this happening, have kept PoPs out of the area for now. A cool front is expected to push into the plains mid morning with northeasterly winds, allowing for upslope flow into the mountains and increasing PW values by about 0.3 inches. This should bring temperatures down a few degrees and also increase shower/thunderstorm coverage across the area, especially above and near the higher terrain with the orographic lift. However, further east, models are showing different ideas on the potential. The GFS, NAM and EC keep the most of the plains pretty dry whereas the latest two extended runs of the HRRR as well as the Canadian model show much more activity coming out on to the plains. Have sided with more PoPs over the plains due to a warmer temperature forecast than previous, and forecast soundings showing the frontal inversion breaking around the urban corridor at least. These storms will have more rain compared to today as PW values increase to 0.75-1.1 across the Front Range mountains, foothills and urban corridor. Values may be up toward 1.2 inches over the far eastern plains, but looks like they will stay capped through the afternoon. Have a slight chance for thunder, but it may wait until the evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 It looks like the latter half of this week and through the weekend will be a wet period across the forecast area. Synoptically, the strong upper ridge that has been in place over the southwestern United States for the past week or so will begin a gradual retreat eastward as an upper trough moves onshore over western Oregon. As the upper ridge axis shifts eastward, moist southerly flow will increase over western Colorado. Winds aloft will also be on the increase, helping to organize rounds of afternoon convection. The ridge is forecast to take about 3 days to move completely away from Colorado, so Thursday, Friday and Saturday could all see afternoons and evenings with locally heavy rainfall from storms that won`t be moving all that fast. Model soundings on the plains indicate that precipitable water values could reach up to 1.50 inches at times. Large CAPE values are also forecast. With the high precipitable water values and a warm late summer airmass in place, heavy rain will become the largest threat each afternoon, with a lesser threat of hail. High temperatures each afternoon will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s before showers develop. From Sunday through early next week, the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will bring a continuation of moderate winds aloft across the state. This will combine with moisture lingering over the state to keep the chance of showers going each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. The threat of heavy rainfall may shift down a little, but the threat of flooding will need to be assessed each day, after seeing where thunderstorms develop. Areas receiving rain will help to keep fire weather problems in check. Temperatures will also remain around seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 833 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 A boundary with east-southeasterly winds should get to and across DIA in the next 30-45 minutes. Have amended the TAF accordingly. Normal drainage wind pattens are expected at the airport before 06Z. There should be no precipitation of ceiling issues well into Wednesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......RJK SHORT TERM...Kriederman LONG TERM....Dankers AVIATION.....RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon & Tonight) Issued at 212 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Low-level cumulus is increasing across southeast Wyoming late this afternoon, especially along/west of the Laramie Range where we are also seeing a few weak radar echos. Thunderstorms should be fairly isolated this afternoon & evening given a warm thermal air mass in place with H7 temperatures of +15C to +18C. HRRR shows very little in the way of activity through the period, but enough to keep low- end PoPs through the night. Northern portions of the CWA should be favored for additional development over the next few hours, mainly along the edge of the ridge. A couple of stronger storms cannot be entirely ruled out with about 1500 J/kg CAPEs and 30-40 knots of 0 to 6 km shear, but capping will likely be a limiting factor. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday - Tuesday) Issued at 403 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Slightly greater coverage of showers and storms mid- through late week and persisting into the weekend as WY/NE remain in the active H5 shortwave traversing zone and supportive diurnal instability. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the week but periodic cool downs will be likely with the rain showers each afternoon. Wednesday appears to be a more active day as the H5 ridge breaks down with 20-30 meter height falls vs. this afternoon. Greater implied mesoscale lift in conjunction with instability near 1500 J/Kg and 45-55 knots of deep layer shear could support isolated to scattered strong to severe storms. This level of higher coverage appears to continue into Thursday with yet another shortwave trough rounding the top side of the parent H5 ridge right across Southeast Wyoming. By Friday, H5 flow will become more zonal and southwesterly as a deeper long wave trough develops off the west coast. Saturday could be a reduced convective coverage day depending where a shortwave ridge develops in the southwest flow regime across the High Plains and perhaps into Sunday as WY/NE may get dry slotted as the parent trough ejects across Montana. Will monitor this pattern as we go through the week. If the trough shifts farther south, that could imply enhanced storm/rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 529 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 For the remainder of this evening, expect to see vicinity showers, possibly vicinity thunderstorms in the SE WY sites of KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL. This will likely be around 03Z to 04Z. VFR conditions will persists despite these light rain showers in the vicinity. Winds will be light and variable overnight for the WY sites. Included VCTS for tomorrow afternoon as it looks to be an early start to thunderstorm activity over the sites in Wyoming. In the Panhandle, VCTS is included in the forecast for this evening between 01Z and 05Z for the sites except KSNY. Expect evening thunderstorms to dissipate before arriving to southern Panhandle. VFR conditions will prevail despite nearby thunderstorm activity tonight. Included the mention of VCTS for the Panhandle tomorrow starting around 22Z due to the expectation of a busy afternoon of convection. This will be refined as we get closer to tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 403 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Elevated fire weather conditions today and Wednesday across west and northern Carbon County where the lowest minimum relative humidity and higher winds will combine each afternoon. Humidity values will fall into the 15 to 25 percent both afternoons with winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. 20-30 percent humidity values will also occur in Converse and Albany counties as well but winds should be lower at 10-20 mph overall. Greater moisture will occur thursday across larger area with reduced fire weather concerns. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...JSA AVIATION...BMW FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 One of the hottest, if not the hottest day of the summer will occur tomorrow. Most of the short-term high resolution models are lining up quite well on the temperature forecast for tomorrow. The HRRR and RAP in particular did a fairly good job on today`s temperatures, which were the warmest solutions. It was 99 degrees at Dodge City as of 2030z. The question for tomorrow will be how far north and east the 105+ temperatures will reach. There is likely going to be a large cluster of thunderstorms (mesoscale convective system, or MCS) rolling south across eastern Kansas early Wednesday, pushing an outflow boundary west. It all depends on how far west and south this boundary and the easterly winds behind it will reach. Ahead of this front/outflow boundary temperatures will soar above 104 degrees. The official forecast will call for 105+ for actual temperature highs south and east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Pratt line. A Heat Advisory has been issued, although the Heat Index will not be much more than the actual temperature (if at all in some spots) due to the low relative humidity in areas where it does reach 105+. The aforementioned front/outflow boundary will become the focus for late afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Additional thunderstorms are likely to develop in other areas of low level convergence farther west, as a shortwave trough will enhance the lift across far western Kansas and eastern Colorado late in the afternoon and evening. Several of the convective-allowing models are showing a formidable MCS developing later in the evening. POPs have been raised to 50 percent for most of the southwest Kansas region with some increased confidence in an MCS late night Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 From Thursday on through the weekend, there will be daily/nightly chances for scattered thunderstorm activity as the global models show the monsoon circulation shifting east across West Texas into southwest Kansas. This is due to the summer subtropical ridge weakening some and shifting east/southeast from its typical New Mexico/Four Corners position. The latest ECMWF suggest that the surface front will dry to redevelop back north with another substantial hot surge pushing into southwest Kansas on Saturday and especially Sunday-Monday. Should this occur, the highs through this period will need to be increased to at or above 100 degrees for these days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 A few ongoing widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of the Dodge City Airport for the next hour or two so will carry VCTS til 01z. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected. VFR conditions can also expected at Garden City, Liberal, and Hays over the next 24 hours. The winds will be southerly at 10knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 70 105 72 96 / 10 20 50 20 GCK 67 102 68 94 / 10 30 50 20 EHA 68 102 69 96 / 10 30 50 20 LBL 70 105 71 96 / 10 20 50 20 HYS 68 97 68 88 / 10 20 50 20 P28 73 106 74 97 / 10 10 50 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ065-066- 078>081-086>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
608 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Satellite and observations show mostly sunny skies across the area this afternoon. A weak surface high will continue to move east this evening. An upper level wave will move into the area tonight. Models still have a few differences in the timing of thunderstorms for tonight. The GFS is earlier, but the NAM and HRRR are both later with the thunderstorms. Have slowed down the PoPs just a little bit. Expect most of the thunderstorms toward morning. With the thunderstorms late tonight, they will likely continue into Wednesday morning across the eastern part of the area. By afternoon, the wave is still lingering and there could be a few, mainly spotty, showers and thunderstorms with the afternoon heating. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 An upper level ridge just to the west of the forecast area will leave northwest flow across the area for Wednesday night through Sunday. There are expected to be some mainly weak upper level waves that move through the area. These lead to on and off, mainly small, chances for thunderstorms. With the waves being weaker in nature, the models are challenged to keep the timing and location of the waves consistent. This also leads to having smaller, more generalized PoPs across the area. Temperatures should be mostly in the 80s to lower 90s, just a little below the normal highs for this time of year. Sunday and Monday, the ridge pushes just a little east, but there are still some weak waves that move across the ridge. This will keep the small chances for thunderstorms across the area and some clouds will keep temperatures in the 80s. By Tuesday, the ridge builds to the west again. There is another wave that moves through, but it is pretty weak. Temperatures will be just a little cooler. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The main issue in this TAF period will be chances for thunderstorms. Current expectation is for scattered storms to move out of South Dakota and into Nebraska late tonight, but the best coverage may remain east of the terminals. The timing of this convection is also tough to pin down, as some models show storms as early as 06Z and some hardly bring any storms into the vicinity until 11Z. This TAF takes the middle ground which is supported by the latest HRRR runs. Winds will become variable as storms through early Wednesday morning. Low-end chances for storms will linger through Wednesday, but confidence is far too low to include in the TAF at this point. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
746 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 746 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Loosely organized MCS clusters in KY into southeast MO were justing entering north and north central TN. These are feeding off a very unstable airmass of MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 j/kg near the MS River, with 1500-2000 j/kg near the I-65 corridor per the OHX sounding. Continued progression south-southeastward is expected given 0-2km SR inflow of 20-25kt in TN. This flow weakens further south of AL. Also, MLCAPE values drop into the 1000-1500 j/kg range in northeast and north central AL. Thus, tough call on whether this makes south progress past far north AL. Recent HRRR runs suggest a marked decay of thunderstorm activity as it reaches southern TN and north AL around 05-07Z, with the convection dying off completely late tonight. Given current radar trends, southern TN will experience these thunderstorms by 04-06Z. Thus, will maintain a period of likely PoP in southern TN late this evening, then lower PoPs back into the slight chance to chance range late tonight. We will keep a chance into Wed morning in northeast AL and southern TN, with slight chances further west. .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 At this time, it appears that the MCS mentioned in the near term discussion should be ongoing across northeastern portions of the forecast area around 12Z, and we have carried fairly high POPs for this region through 15Z. However, the complex of showers and storms is expected to make steady southeastward progress, leaving most of the region rain-free during the late morning hours. Assuming that lingering cloud cover in the wake of the departing MCS will scatter by late tomorrow morning, fairly rapid boundary layer destabilization is predicted to occur as temps warm into the lower 90s, and this should foster the rapid redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along a trailing outflow boundary bisecting the CWFA in a NW-to-SE fashion. This activity will tend to shift southward or perhaps southwestward during the late afternoon/early evening hours, and will carry a similar threat for strong-marginally severe winds based on little change in the kinematic/thermodynamic characteristics of the local environment. Due to reasoning mentioned above, we have indicated a gradual decrease in POPs beginning late Wednesday evening, with lows falling into the u60s-l70s. During the period from Thursday through Friday, guidance from all global models indicates that the subtropical ridge to our west will begin to restrengthen as it expands eastward across TX and into the Sabine Valley region. Although gradual mid-level height rises and weakening flow aloft in this regime will tend to provide a less favorable environment for organized/severe convection, the TN Valley will remain on the northeastern rim of the ridge, with a weak disturbance diving southeastward expected to result in another round of convection late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Due to uncertainty on the timing of this disturbance, we have indicated high chance POPs in the northwest late Thursday afternoon, and region- wide from Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will once again exhibit little fluctuation, with highs in the u80s- l90s and lows in the u60s-l70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 A weak frontal boundary is forecast to continue to sag south into central Alabama Friday night. This should keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast before this activity shifts south of the area during the morning hours on Sunday. Despite some weak northerly flow behind this boundary on Sunday, highs will still climb into the lower 90s. This is mainly due to a strong upper level ridge that shifts further eastward from the Texas area. Flow from the Gulf of Mexico is the source region for air moving northward on the eastern edge of this ridging aloft. This should keep very humid conditions in place, likely increasing humidity into next week. Heat index values will likely climb back into the 100 to 104 degree range Sunday into the middle of next week. Guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving southeast via northwest flow Sunday night through Tuesday. At this point, timing is very different with each model, so just kept scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Despite increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances at times with various shortwaves, highs in the lower to mid 90s look likely. A more organized front is shown dropping south into Alabama and Georgia on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This may provide a bit more widespread coverage Wednesday and Wednesday night. Throughout the period strong to marginally severe storms may be possible with some of these shortwaves. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 VFR conditions are expected this evening and into the overnight hours. However, scattered thunderstorms may arrive in southern middle TN and far north AL after 10Z. These will produce MVFR and possibly IFR conditions with lower visibility in RA. A return to VFR conditions will occur by 14Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...KTW AVIATION...17 For more information please visit our website at
National Weather Service Jackson KY
942 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019 MCS is diving southward across south central Kentucky presently and may just clip southwestern Wayne county. Otherwise, still seeing some shower and storms pushing across areas north of I-64. This activity will slowly wind down over the next few hours. 00z HRRR has come in much more lean on potential shower/storm coverage through the rest of the night, and given the current MCS diving southward, this may limit potential redevelopment and thus, the HRRR may be catching onto this idea. Thus, going to drop pops back to isolated through the rest of the night. May need to increase a few areas after 07z if a few more pockets of more organized showers/storms can get going. However, given the time of day, more than likely coverage will remain isolated. UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019 A few showers and storms continue to push through areas north of I-64, but the trend has been for storms to overall weaken and that will continue to be the case as we head further into the evening hours. CAMS continue to show some redevelopment late tonight as the forcing from the mid level trough pushing across the area allows for development. Thus, no real reason to make any changes at this point as everything in the ongoing forecast still looks reasonable. May be able to refine precipitation chances towards midnight as we watch radar trends, but until then, we will stick with the current forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 435 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019 As of mid afternoon, a trough extended into the eastern Conus with a ridge over the Southern Rockies. A shortwaves were moving through this trough, the most significant was moving through the Lake Erie and northern OH vicinity with another moving across the lower OH Valley and another upstream in the MS Valley region. At the surface, a cold front extended south into the Great Lakes and OH Valley from an area of low pressure in Quebec. Convection is more widespread nearer to the boundary with some isolated to scattered showers and even a storm or two further south nearing the northwest portion of the area. Insatiability remains greatest at this time with westward extent with shear also increasing to the west of the area as well. Through this evening, some additional isolated to scattered convection is anticipated particularly in the north and northwest. The cold front will slowly near the area this evening and tonight while the next couple of shortwaves approach. This should lead to greater coverage of convection generally from later in the evening and into the overnight. Shear should increase a bit as the front and next wave near so a couple of strong storms with gusty winds and locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out this evening. Some uncertainty remains in the timing and area extent with convective allowing models having run to run variability and not handling current convection all that well. The threat for convection will linger into Wednesday evening as the boundary slowly crosses the area and moves into the Appalachians and another couple of shortwaves cross East KY. Weak high pressure will build into the area behind the boundary for Wednesday night. After the anticipated rainfall during the next 12 to 24 hours, low level moisture should be sufficient for a threat of fog with skies expected to clear and winds slackening. The fog may be dense in valleys, but was not confident just yet to include dense fog. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 413 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019 Thursday will start out with an exiting trough, a strong area of low pressure to our north across Hudson Bay, and a strong ridge across the southern U.S. This will keep NW to SE flow across the state into the weekend, with flow strengthening as the area of low pressure to our north continues to shift southeast into Quebec during this time, and the upper level ridge enhances over the south and central conus. This ridge will eventually build into the Commonwealth to round out the weekend and heading into the first of next week. More zonal flow after this point will allow some weak shortwaves to move through the Ohio Valley to round out the period. At the surface, a cold front will be riding the NW to SE flow, heading towards the state, before laying out from west to east across the state by Thursday evening where it will remain until during the day Friday before drifting just south of the state by evening. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the CWA during this time. Dry air in place as this system moves in, and increasing heights aloft, will deter more widespread concerns. Once this system moves through, a strong area of high pressure will take hold from the north and remain in place through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Will note that the NBM was placing pops across portions of the CWA Friday night through Saturday night, despite the strong dry air advection moving into the region. After collaborating with neighboring offices, had no problem removing these pops, and keeping this time period dry and mostly clear. The next frontal boundary won`t near the region until next Tuesday, but return flow on the backside of the departing high will advect enough moisture into the region that some isolated pops will be possible on both Sunday and Monday afternoons ahead of this next system. Confidence on these, however, is still fairly low. High temperatures will generally be generally steady in the 80s each day, with a slight dip into the low to to mid 80s on Friday with the cold front moving through. Temperatures will then warm a degree or two each day after that point, reaching the upper 80s by the end of the period. Humidity levels will be nice on Saturday, but should also begin increasing as we head towards the end of the period. Overnight lows will start out in the mid and upper 60s Thursday night ahead of the first cold front, then should cool to the upper 50s and low 60s Friday and Saturday nights, before following the same trends as the daytime temperatures. Any night that clears off could see some valley fog, as well as a ridge/valley split in temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019 Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours, although a few isolated showers or storms could threaten KSYM over the next hour. A better chance for showers and storms will come after 06z tonight, but coverage is still in question, so will stick with VCTS in the TAFS for now. A stray showers or storm will remain possible on Wednesday, but activity should be shifting more into southeast Kentucky with time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
909 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The forecast has been updated to add the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of central Nebraska. A cluster of storms is currently tracking southeast across south central South Dakota and is expected to track into central Nebraska by 1000 PM. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Main forecast challenge is thunderstorm chances tonight. Monsoonal moisture continues to rotate into the Central Plains. Precipitable water values currently range from at least an inch to around an inch and a half. Most unstable capes have increase to above 4000 J/KG. While it is likely that surfaced based storms will develop by early this evening the location remains in question. Various mesoscale models including the NMMM, ARW, and to a lesser extent the HRRR and RAP suggest initiation of a thunderstorm cluster near a Thedford to Brewster segment. Storm would then grow upscale and move southeast given the instability and strong shear aloft. OVerall POPs across the forecast area range from 30 to 40 percent this evening given the model spread. A second concern is the likely development of an MCS now beginning to develop a few thunderstorms over wrn and cntrl ND. These storms should develop into an MCS to propagate southeastward into eastern portions of nctrl and nern NE near 06Z while continuing to move southeast. This is likely to develop additional thunderstorms westward across the central Sandhills overnight. Far southwestern areas should remain outside any of this activity after midnight to remain dry. Lingering showers/storms in the morning in central NE, with a slight chance returning to west and swrn areas in the afternoon. Not expected much focus for storms until the next disturbance move through Wednesday night. Highs to range from 86 to 92. A marginal risk for severe to cover all of wrn NE except the far northeast in general thunderstorm outlook. POPs Wed. night to range from 30-40 percent. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Daily chances for thunderstorms Thursday through Tuesday as the upper ridge extending into the Rockies flattens out and extends across the Southern Plains and sern U.S by late this weekend. Highs cool to around 80 Thursday and Friday then mid 80s this weekend, then back into the upper 70s to around 80 by monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The main concern for this TAF period will be for the chances of thunderstorms. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows thunderstorms moving across the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of central South Dakota. Latest model guidance suggests that the storms in South Dakota will continue to track south and into central Nebraska. Timing for the storms to impact central Nebraska will be between 03z and 12z. Any strong to severe storms will be generally along and east of highway 83. Aside from any thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected across the region through the TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Thorne SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Thorne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1029 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .DISCUSSION... Have issued several updates this evening to suite of forecast products per conglomerate southward/southeastward moving convectively generated sfc cold pool convection moving so quickly across mid state region. Leaned toward latest HRRR solution for continued progression of shwrs/tstms south and southeastward across remaining portions of mid state region likely within the next hour. Mentioned patchy fog after midnight across entire mid state region. Will be issuing another update to suite of forecast products here shortly to emphasize that remaining numerous shwrs/tstms moving into srn and ern portions of mid state should end by midnight. With some deepening of upper level flow after midnight, especially across Upper Cumberland Region which could support passage of an embedded shortwave in flow, will probably continue mention sct shwrs across this portion of mid state region overnight. Depending on latest cloud coverage and sfc front expected to move out of cntrl srn KY and move into at least portions of mid state region after midnight, may adjust either up or down previous mid state forecasted overnight low temps by a few degrees. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this evening through early overnight hours. Have in VCTS but also tempo groups for best timing chances per short term models for each terminal. MVFR/IFR cigs/vis will be possible with stronger showers and storms should they pass over terminals. Fog will be possible as well overnight, along with some lingering light showers, but expecting VFR conditions after sunrise and during the day Wednesday with westerly/northwesterly winds around 10 knots with gusts to around 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 90 70 92 72 / 80 20 10 20 40 Clarksville 70 87 68 89 71 / 100 10 10 30 40 Crossville 65 83 64 84 65 / 100 30 10 20 30 Columbia 71 90 68 90 71 / 100 20 10 30 40 Lawrenceburg 70 89 67 89 71 / 90 20 10 20 40 Waverly 71 89 69 88 71 / 100 10 10 30 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......31 AVIATION........Barnwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
503 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will be hot with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s with many places in central Washington reaching triple digits. Wildfire smoke will plague portions of the Inland Northwest contributing to areas of poor air quality. Much cooler weather will arrive this weekend as well a the potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday night: The weather pattern across the West is defined by a weak, closed upper low off the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the Four-Corners region. The Inland Northwest resides under southwesterly flow aloft between the two systems. Skies are mostly clear across the region, except some cirrus clouds approaching us from the south. The main forecast challenge for the next 24-48 hours will be predicting the direction smoke blows from the Williams Flats wildfire in Ferry County, and the Eagle Bluff wildfire in British Columbia. The latest HRRR Smoke model shows a west to northwest wind carrying smoke into the Spokane area late this afternoon and evening, and currently visible satellite trends affirm this. Between this and the already smoky/hazy conditions across much of the region, persistence is the most likely scenario for the next day or so. Look for hot temperatures to continue through Wednesday as the Four- Corners ridge of high pressure influences the region. Highs will likely be in the 90s across much of the region again on Wednesday, with 100s in parts of the Columbia Basin and Lewis-Clark Valley. The heat advisory will continue through Wednesday, and high temperatures will be within a few degrees of record territory. Convection will also be a tricky forecast the next few days as moisture slowly pushes northward. Our current expectation is for thunderstorm activity to remain primarily to our south today. A few thunderstorms may creep northward along the Cascades and toward SE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dang Thursday through Tuesday: Pattern change expected. South to north path provided by the positioning of a closed low circulation off the coast with negatively tilted ridging over the Pacific Northwest is a possible path for thunderstorms as early as Thursday morning so some minor slight chance pops are likely to be included in that part of the forecast. Friday and on through the remainder of the weekend disturbances rotating around the edges of the offshore low get slung up northeast into Eastern Washington and North Idaho which help to not only deamplify the ridge in place but may also bring about convection as well as some increase in wind. This continues on through the weekend involving the entire low ejecting inland which may result in quite a wet and unsettled Saturday involving very wet slow moving thunderstorms. In fact some of this convection may move slow enough there is some potential for flash flooding so it will need to be closely monitored. The removal of the ridge leaves either a trof and/or flat zonal flow which marks the remainder of the forecast with cooler temperatures and minor pops for convection. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Mainly VFR conditions with light winds the next 24 hours. Smoke from the Williams Flats Fire will occasionally bring reduced visibilities and MVFR conditions to KGEG-KSFF-KCOE aft 06Z. Think the smoke will be a few hours delayed compared to yesterday given the westerly winds keeping the smoke a bit further north until it sags south into the Spokane area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 62 98 63 94 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 60 97 62 94 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 60 95 59 90 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Lewiston 71 102 70 96 68 90 / 0 0 20 10 20 20 Colville 52 103 53 101 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 Sandpoint 57 95 57 93 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 66 93 65 91 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Moses Lake 65 102 64 97 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 71 99 70 95 68 88 / 10 10 10 0 10 20 Omak 66 102 66 98 67 90 / 0 10 0 0 10 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties- Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-East Slopes Northern Cascades. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
933 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Lingering showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Ozarks will slowly diminish over the next several hours as inhibition increases. A diffuse stationary boundary remains roughly along a Nevada to Rolla line and will likely not move much more overnight given the mid/upper level mean flow. Areas that received rainfall this evening may see some light/patchy fog overnight given the light winds and high RH`s however widespread fog is currently not expected. Model guidance generally suggests a quiet/dry overnight period as forcing for precip will remain mainly to our northwest across Nebraska, on the nose of a modest 850mb low level jet and upper level disturbance. Current thunderstorm activity across South Dakota will likely move southeast towards the area, reaching the region by mid to late Wednesday morning, however there is some slight model difference in timing. NAM and HRRR have both been consistently suggesting storms to move into the region tomorrow. Regardless,confidence is high enough to go ahead and increase PoPs during the daytime from northwest to southeast across the area as well as reduce max temps into the middle 80s from Springfield north and upper 80s south of Springfield. Some model guidance suggests even lower highs however have nudged down slightly for now closer to a consensus of short term models. There also appears to be a signal for strong instability for some severe storms and locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding tomorrow as the thunderstorm complex moves through, especially if storms become oriented from northwest to southeast and move over the same areas. The later in the day the storms move through, the more energy/instability they will have to work with versus the earlier in the day. It is also possible there could be some redevelopment by late afternoon/evening if storms move through earlier in the day. Confidence is just not high enough for a Flash Flood Watch at this time however will continue to monitor short term trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) It was a warm and muggy day over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures reached the low 90s while most locations remained dry. We did have a few showers that were developing over the eastern Ozarks this afternoon, and we could see a few more develop in areas along and east of Highway 63. We also could see a couple of strong storms develop as well. For tonight, additional thunderstorm development will be possible across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. A large complex of storms is also expected to develop over Nebraska, and move into the Ozarks Region during the Wednesday morning hours. The CAPE - Shear combination looks strong enough for an episode of severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary risks. There is also a localized flash flood risk for any areas that experience slow moving or training thunderstorms. This activity is expected to exit the Ozarks early Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) For Wednesday night, look for more thunderstorm chances with overnight lows in the low 70s. We will need to monitor for the risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding heading into the Thursday. The NAM 12 and some other solutions are indicating that several inches of rain will be possible somewhere either within or near the Ozarks. By Friday, there could be a few storms over far southwest Missouri, however, we think most locations are looking dry through Friday afternoon. However, thunderstorm development is very likely Friday night into Saturday morning. An upper level disturbance will approach from the west, bringing numerous thunderstorms to the region during the day on Saturday, and possibly extending into Saturday night. The summertime high is supposed to creep a little closer to the Ozarks by early next work week. This could bring warmer temperatures, however, rain chances will also be in the offing since the low center remains to the south and west of the area. This upper air structure will keep the Ozarks within the overall storm track. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Isolated showers and storms will diminish this evening with the area remaining VFR and dry the remainder of the night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Wednesday however timing is in question. Winds will remain generally light out of the west to northwest. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Burchfield