Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/07/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
839 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Convection is all but gone across the CWA, save a few lingering
showers over South Park. There`s a few boundaries roaming the
plains from previous convection as well. Will clean out pops on
the GFE grids based of real data. Will also amend some of the
skies grids for the same.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
An upper high centered over the Old Mexico/New Mexico/Texas
borders is extending a ridge axis northwest into Utah and Idaho
putting a warm northwesterly flow aloft. Drier air has moved over
our mountains and into the urban corridor with dew points in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. A surface trough over the plains is helping
to keep higher dewpoints over towards the eastern state border,
also wrapping around into the northern Colorado plains. This will
allow for drier thunderstorms containing gusty outflow winds over
the mountains and urban corridor, especially southern parts, with
wetter storms to the east with a potential for hail. Storms
aren`t expected to last too far into the evening as we lose the
suns heat and there isn`t any real energy aloft to keep them
going.
A disturbance moving south over the northern plains is expected to
push in cooler air and more moisture into the area for Wednesday.
Some lift from this may produce some showers and possible storms
in Nebraska early Wednesday morning which may near our
northeastern plains, but confidence is low in this happening, have
kept PoPs out of the area for now. A cool front is expected to
push into the plains mid morning with northeasterly winds,
allowing for upslope flow into the mountains and increasing PW
values by about 0.3 inches. This should bring temperatures down a
few degrees and also increase shower/thunderstorm coverage across
the area, especially above and near the higher terrain with the
orographic lift. However, further east, models are showing
different ideas on the potential. The GFS, NAM and EC keep the
most of the plains pretty dry whereas the latest two extended runs
of the HRRR as well as the Canadian model show much more activity
coming out on to the plains. Have sided with more PoPs over the
plains due to a warmer temperature forecast than previous, and
forecast soundings showing the frontal inversion breaking around
the urban corridor at least. These storms will have more rain
compared to today as PW values increase to 0.75-1.1 across the
Front Range mountains, foothills and urban corridor. Values may be up
toward 1.2 inches over the far eastern plains, but looks like they
will stay capped through the afternoon. Have a slight chance for
thunder, but it may wait until the evening.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
It looks like the latter half of this week and through the weekend
will be a wet period across the forecast area. Synoptically, the
strong upper ridge that has been in place over the southwestern
United States for the past week or so will begin a gradual retreat
eastward as an upper trough moves onshore over western Oregon. As
the upper ridge axis shifts eastward, moist southerly flow will
increase over western Colorado. Winds aloft will also be on the
increase, helping to organize rounds of afternoon convection. The
ridge is forecast to take about 3 days to move completely away
from Colorado, so Thursday, Friday and Saturday could all see
afternoons and evenings with locally heavy rainfall from storms
that won`t be moving all that fast. Model soundings on the plains
indicate that precipitable water values could reach up to 1.50
inches at times. Large CAPE values are also forecast. With the
high precipitable water values and a warm late summer airmass in
place, heavy rain will become the largest threat each afternoon,
with a lesser threat of hail. High temperatures each afternoon
will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s before showers develop.
From Sunday through early next week, the upper trough over the
Pacific Northwest will bring a continuation of moderate winds
aloft across the state. This will combine with moisture lingering
over the state to keep the chance of showers going each afternoon
and evening through Tuesday. The threat of heavy rainfall may
shift down a little, but the threat of flooding will need to be
assessed each day, after seeing where thunderstorms develop.
Areas receiving rain will help to keep fire weather problems in
check. Temperatures will also remain around seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 833 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
A boundary with east-southeasterly winds should get to and across
DIA in the next 30-45 minutes. Have amended the TAF accordingly.
Normal drainage wind pattens are expected at the airport before
06Z. There should be no precipitation of ceiling issues well into
Wednesday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM....Dankers
AVIATION.....RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon & Tonight)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Low-level cumulus is increasing across southeast Wyoming late this
afternoon, especially along/west of the Laramie Range where we are
also seeing a few weak radar echos. Thunderstorms should be fairly
isolated this afternoon & evening given a warm thermal air mass in
place with H7 temperatures of +15C to +18C. HRRR shows very little
in the way of activity through the period, but enough to keep low-
end PoPs through the night. Northern portions of the CWA should be
favored for additional development over the next few hours, mainly
along the edge of the ridge. A couple of stronger storms cannot be
entirely ruled out with about 1500 J/kg CAPEs and 30-40 knots of 0
to 6 km shear, but capping will likely be a limiting factor.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday - Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Slightly greater coverage of showers and storms mid- through late
week and persisting into the weekend as WY/NE remain in the active
H5 shortwave traversing zone and supportive diurnal instability.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the
week but periodic cool downs will be likely with the rain showers
each afternoon.
Wednesday appears to be a more active day as the H5 ridge breaks
down with 20-30 meter height falls vs. this afternoon. Greater
implied mesoscale lift in conjunction with instability near 1500
J/Kg and 45-55 knots of deep layer shear could support isolated to
scattered strong to severe storms. This level of higher coverage
appears to continue into Thursday with yet another shortwave
trough rounding the top side of the parent H5 ridge right across
Southeast Wyoming. By Friday, H5 flow will become more zonal and
southwesterly as a deeper long wave trough develops off the west
coast. Saturday could be a reduced convective coverage day
depending where a shortwave ridge develops in the southwest flow
regime across the High Plains and perhaps into Sunday as WY/NE may
get dry slotted as the parent trough ejects across Montana. Will
monitor this pattern as we go through the week. If the trough
shifts farther south, that could imply enhanced storm/rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
For the remainder of this evening, expect to see vicinity showers,
possibly vicinity thunderstorms in the SE WY sites of KCYS, KLAR,
and KRWL. This will likely be around 03Z to 04Z. VFR conditions
will persists despite these light rain showers in the vicinity. Winds
will be light and variable overnight for the WY sites. Included
VCTS for tomorrow afternoon as it looks to be an early start to
thunderstorm activity over the sites in Wyoming. In the Panhandle,
VCTS is included in the forecast for this evening between 01Z and
05Z for the sites except KSNY. Expect evening thunderstorms to
dissipate before arriving to southern Panhandle. VFR conditions
will prevail despite nearby thunderstorm activity tonight.
Included the mention of VCTS for the Panhandle tomorrow starting
around 22Z due to the expectation of a busy afternoon of
convection. This will be refined as we get closer to tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Elevated fire weather conditions today and Wednesday across west and
northern Carbon County where the lowest minimum relative humidity and
higher winds will combine each afternoon. Humidity values will fall
into the 15 to 25 percent both afternoons with winds in the 15 to 20
mph range. 20-30 percent humidity values will also occur in Converse
and Albany counties as well but winds should be lower at 10-20 mph
overall. Greater moisture will occur thursday across larger area with
reduced fire weather concerns.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...BMW
FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
One of the hottest, if not the hottest day of the summer will
occur tomorrow. Most of the short-term high resolution models are
lining up quite well on the temperature forecast for tomorrow. The
HRRR and RAP in particular did a fairly good job on today`s
temperatures, which were the warmest solutions. It was 99 degrees
at Dodge City as of 2030z. The question for tomorrow will be how
far north and east the 105+ temperatures will reach. There is
likely going to be a large cluster of thunderstorms (mesoscale
convective system, or MCS) rolling south across eastern Kansas
early Wednesday, pushing an outflow boundary west. It all depends
on how far west and south this boundary and the easterly winds
behind it will reach. Ahead of this front/outflow boundary
temperatures will soar above 104 degrees. The official forecast
will call for 105+ for actual temperature highs south and east of
a Liberal to Dodge City to Pratt line. A Heat Advisory has been
issued, although the Heat Index will not be much more than the
actual temperature (if at all in some spots) due to the low
relative humidity in areas where it does reach 105+.
The aforementioned front/outflow boundary will become the focus
for late afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Additional
thunderstorms are likely to develop in other areas of low level
convergence farther west, as a shortwave trough will enhance the
lift across far western Kansas and eastern Colorado late in the
afternoon and evening. Several of the convective-allowing models
are showing a formidable MCS developing later in the evening. POPs
have been raised to 50 percent for most of the southwest Kansas
region with some increased confidence in an MCS late night
Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
From Thursday on through the weekend, there will be daily/nightly
chances for scattered thunderstorm activity as the global models
show the monsoon circulation shifting east across West Texas into
southwest Kansas. This is due to the summer subtropical ridge
weakening some and shifting east/southeast from its typical New
Mexico/Four Corners position. The latest ECMWF suggest that the
surface front will dry to redevelop back north with another
substantial hot surge pushing into southwest Kansas on Saturday
and especially Sunday-Monday. Should this occur, the highs through
this period will need to be increased to at or above 100 degrees
for these days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
A few ongoing widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible near
and south of the Dodge City Airport for the next hour or two so
will carry VCTS til 01z. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected.
VFR conditions can also expected at Garden City, Liberal, and
Hays over the next 24 hours. The winds will be southerly at
10knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 105 72 96 / 10 20 50 20
GCK 67 102 68 94 / 10 30 50 20
EHA 68 102 69 96 / 10 30 50 20
LBL 70 105 71 96 / 10 20 50 20
HYS 68 97 68 88 / 10 20 50 20
P28 73 106 74 97 / 10 10 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ065-066-
078>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
608 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Satellite and observations show mostly sunny skies across the area
this afternoon.
A weak surface high will continue to move east this evening. An
upper level wave will move into the area tonight. Models still have
a few differences in the timing of thunderstorms for tonight. The
GFS is earlier, but the NAM and HRRR are both later with the
thunderstorms. Have slowed down the PoPs just a little bit. Expect
most of the thunderstorms toward morning. With the thunderstorms
late tonight, they will likely continue into Wednesday morning
across the eastern part of the area. By afternoon, the wave is still
lingering and there could be a few, mainly spotty, showers and
thunderstorms with the afternoon heating.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
An upper level ridge just to the west of the forecast area will
leave northwest flow across the area for Wednesday night through
Sunday. There are expected to be some mainly weak upper level waves
that move through the area. These lead to on and off, mainly small,
chances for thunderstorms. With the waves being weaker in nature,
the models are challenged to keep the timing and location of the
waves consistent. This also leads to having smaller, more
generalized PoPs across the area. Temperatures should be mostly in
the 80s to lower 90s, just a little below the normal highs for this
time of year.
Sunday and Monday, the ridge pushes just a little east, but there
are still some weak waves that move across the ridge. This will keep
the small chances for thunderstorms across the area and some clouds
will keep temperatures in the 80s. By Tuesday, the ridge builds to
the west again. There is another wave that moves through, but it is
pretty weak. Temperatures will be just a little cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
The main issue in this TAF period will be chances for
thunderstorms. Current expectation is for scattered storms to move
out of South Dakota and into Nebraska late tonight, but the best
coverage may remain east of the terminals. The timing of this
convection is also tough to pin down, as some models show storms
as early as 06Z and some hardly bring any storms into the vicinity
until 11Z. This TAF takes the middle ground which is supported by
the latest HRRR runs.
Winds will become variable as storms through early Wednesday
morning.
Low-end chances for storms will linger through Wednesday, but
confidence is far too low to include in the TAF at this point.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
746 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 746 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Loosely organized MCS clusters in KY into southeast MO were justing
entering north and north central TN. These are feeding off a very
unstable airmass of MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 j/kg near the MS
River, with 1500-2000 j/kg near the I-65 corridor per the OHX
sounding. Continued progression south-southeastward is expected given
0-2km SR inflow of 20-25kt in TN. This flow weakens further south of
AL. Also, MLCAPE values drop into the 1000-1500 j/kg range in
northeast and north central AL. Thus, tough call on whether this
makes south progress past far north AL. Recent HRRR runs suggest a
marked decay of thunderstorm activity as it reaches southern TN and
north AL around 05-07Z, with the convection dying off completely late
tonight. Given current radar trends, southern TN will experience
these thunderstorms by 04-06Z. Thus, will maintain a period of likely
PoP in southern TN late this evening, then lower PoPs back into the
slight chance to chance range late tonight. We will keep a chance
into Wed morning in northeast AL and southern TN, with slight chances
further west.
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
At this time, it appears that the MCS mentioned in the near term
discussion should be ongoing across northeastern portions of the
forecast area around 12Z, and we have carried fairly high POPs for
this region through 15Z. However, the complex of showers and storms
is expected to make steady southeastward progress, leaving most of
the region rain-free during the late morning hours. Assuming that
lingering cloud cover in the wake of the departing MCS will scatter
by late tomorrow morning, fairly rapid boundary layer destabilization
is predicted to occur as temps warm into the lower 90s, and this
should foster the rapid redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
along a trailing outflow boundary bisecting the CWFA in a NW-to-SE
fashion. This activity will tend to shift southward or perhaps
southwestward during the late afternoon/early evening hours, and will
carry a similar threat for strong-marginally severe winds based on
little change in the kinematic/thermodynamic characteristics of the
local environment. Due to reasoning mentioned above, we have
indicated a gradual decrease in POPs beginning late Wednesday
evening, with lows falling into the u60s-l70s.
During the period from Thursday through Friday, guidance from all
global models indicates that the subtropical ridge to our west will
begin to restrengthen as it expands eastward across TX and into the
Sabine Valley region. Although gradual mid-level height rises and
weakening flow aloft in this regime will tend to provide a less
favorable environment for organized/severe convection, the TN Valley
will remain on the northeastern rim of the ridge, with a weak
disturbance diving southeastward expected to result in another round
of convection late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Due to
uncertainty on the timing of this disturbance, we have indicated high
chance POPs in the northwest late Thursday afternoon, and region-
wide from Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will once
again exhibit little fluctuation, with highs in the u80s- l90s and
lows in the u60s-l70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
A weak frontal boundary is forecast to continue to sag south into
central Alabama Friday night. This should keep isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast before this activity shifts
south of the area during the morning hours on Sunday. Despite some
weak northerly flow behind this boundary on Sunday, highs will still
climb into the lower 90s. This is mainly due to a strong upper level
ridge that shifts further eastward from the Texas area. Flow from the
Gulf of Mexico is the source region for air moving northward on the
eastern edge of this ridging aloft. This should keep very humid
conditions in place, likely increasing humidity into next week. Heat
index values will likely climb back into the 100 to 104 degree range
Sunday into the middle of next week.
Guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving southeast via northwest
flow Sunday night through Tuesday. At this point, timing is very
different with each model, so just kept scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the period. Despite increasing cloud cover
and precipitation chances at times with various shortwaves, highs in
the lower to mid 90s look likely. A more organized front is shown
dropping south into Alabama and Georgia on Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This may provide a bit more widespread coverage Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Throughout the period strong to marginally
severe storms may be possible with some of these shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
VFR conditions are expected this evening and into the overnight
hours. However, scattered thunderstorms may arrive in southern middle
TN and far north AL after 10Z. These will produce MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions with lower visibility in RA. A return to VFR
conditions will occur by 14Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...17
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
942 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019
MCS is diving southward across south central Kentucky presently
and may just clip southwestern Wayne county. Otherwise, still
seeing some shower and storms pushing across areas north of I-64.
This activity will slowly wind down over the next few hours. 00z
HRRR has come in much more lean on potential shower/storm coverage
through the rest of the night, and given the current MCS diving
southward, this may limit potential redevelopment and thus, the
HRRR may be catching onto this idea. Thus, going to drop pops back
to isolated through the rest of the night. May need to increase a
few areas after 07z if a few more pockets of more organized
showers/storms can get going. However, given the time of day, more
than likely coverage will remain isolated.
UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019
A few showers and storms continue to push through areas north of
I-64, but the trend has been for storms to overall weaken and that
will continue to be the case as we head further into the evening
hours. CAMS continue to show some redevelopment late tonight as
the forcing from the mid level trough pushing across the area
allows for development. Thus, no real reason to make any changes
at this point as everything in the ongoing forecast still looks
reasonable. May be able to refine precipitation chances towards
midnight as we watch radar trends, but until then, we will stick
with the current forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019
As of mid afternoon, a trough extended into the eastern Conus with
a ridge over the Southern Rockies. A shortwaves were moving
through this trough, the most significant was moving through the
Lake Erie and northern OH vicinity with another moving across the
lower OH Valley and another upstream in the MS Valley region. At
the surface, a cold front extended south into the Great Lakes and
OH Valley from an area of low pressure in Quebec. Convection is
more widespread nearer to the boundary with some isolated to
scattered showers and even a storm or two further south nearing
the northwest portion of the area. Insatiability remains greatest
at this time with westward extent with shear also increasing to
the west of the area as well.
Through this evening, some additional isolated to scattered
convection is anticipated particularly in the north and northwest.
The cold front will slowly near the area this evening and tonight
while the next couple of shortwaves approach. This should lead to
greater coverage of convection generally from later in the evening
and into the overnight. Shear should increase a bit as the front
and next wave near so a couple of strong storms with gusty winds
and locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out this evening. Some
uncertainty remains in the timing and area extent with convective
allowing models having run to run variability and not handling
current convection all that well.
The threat for convection will linger into Wednesday evening as
the boundary slowly crosses the area and moves into the Appalachians
and another couple of shortwaves cross East KY. Weak high pressure
will build into the area behind the boundary for Wednesday night.
After the anticipated rainfall during the next 12 to 24 hours,
low level moisture should be sufficient for a threat of fog with
skies expected to clear and winds slackening. The fog may be dense
in valleys, but was not confident just yet to include dense fog.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019
Thursday will start out with an exiting trough, a strong area of low
pressure to our north across Hudson Bay, and a strong ridge across
the southern U.S. This will keep NW to SE flow across the state into
the weekend, with flow strengthening as the area of low pressure to
our north continues to shift southeast into Quebec during this time,
and the upper level ridge enhances over the south and central conus.
This ridge will eventually build into the Commonwealth to round out
the weekend and heading into the first of next week. More zonal flow
after this point will allow some weak shortwaves to move through the
Ohio Valley to round out the period.
At the surface, a cold front will be riding the NW to SE flow,
heading towards the state, before laying out from west to east
across the state by Thursday evening where it will remain until
during the day Friday before drifting just south of the state by
evening. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
across much of the CWA during this time. Dry air in place as this
system moves in, and increasing heights aloft, will deter more
widespread concerns. Once this system moves through, a strong area
of high pressure will take hold from the north and remain in place
through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Will
note that the NBM was placing pops across portions of the CWA Friday
night through Saturday night, despite the strong dry air advection
moving into the region. After collaborating with neighboring
offices, had no problem removing these pops, and keeping this time
period dry and mostly clear. The next frontal boundary won`t near
the region until next Tuesday, but return flow on the backside of
the departing high will advect enough moisture into the region that
some isolated pops will be possible on both Sunday and Monday
afternoons ahead of this next system. Confidence on these,
however, is still fairly low.
High temperatures will generally be generally steady in the 80s
each day, with a slight dip into the low to to mid 80s on Friday
with the cold front moving through. Temperatures will then warm a
degree or two each day after that point, reaching the upper 80s by
the end of the period. Humidity levels will be nice on Saturday,
but should also begin increasing as we head towards the end of the
period. Overnight lows will start out in the mid and upper 60s
Thursday night ahead of the first cold front, then should cool to
the upper 50s and low 60s Friday and Saturday nights, before
following the same trends as the daytime temperatures. Any night
that clears off could see some valley fog, as well as a
ridge/valley split in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours,
although a few isolated showers or storms could threaten KSYM over
the next hour. A better chance for showers and storms will come
after 06z tonight, but coverage is still in question, so will
stick with VCTS in the TAFS for now. A stray showers or storm will
remain possible on Wednesday, but activity should be shifting more
into southeast Kentucky with time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
909 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
The forecast has been updated to add the chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of central Nebraska. A
cluster of storms is currently tracking southeast across south
central South Dakota and is expected to track into central
Nebraska by 1000 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Main forecast challenge is thunderstorm chances tonight. Monsoonal
moisture continues to rotate into the Central Plains. Precipitable
water values currently range from at least an inch to around an
inch and a half. Most unstable capes have increase to above 4000
J/KG. While it is likely that surfaced based storms will develop
by early this evening the location remains in question. Various
mesoscale models including the NMMM, ARW, and to a lesser extent
the HRRR and RAP suggest initiation of a thunderstorm cluster near
a Thedford to Brewster segment. Storm would then grow upscale and
move southeast given the instability and strong shear aloft.
OVerall POPs across the forecast area range from 30 to 40 percent
this evening given the model spread. A second concern is the
likely development of an MCS now beginning to develop a few
thunderstorms over wrn and cntrl ND. These storms should develop
into an MCS to propagate southeastward into eastern portions of
nctrl and nern NE near 06Z while continuing to move southeast.
This is likely to develop additional thunderstorms westward
across the central Sandhills overnight. Far southwestern areas
should remain outside any of this activity after midnight to
remain dry.
Lingering showers/storms in the morning in central NE, with a
slight chance returning to west and swrn areas in the afternoon.
Not expected much focus for storms until the next disturbance move
through Wednesday night. Highs to range from 86 to 92. A marginal
risk for severe to cover all of wrn NE except the far northeast
in general thunderstorm outlook. POPs Wed. night to range from
30-40 percent.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Daily chances for thunderstorms Thursday through Tuesday as the
upper ridge extending into the Rockies flattens out and extends
across the Southern Plains and sern U.S by late this weekend.
Highs cool to around 80 Thursday and Friday then mid 80s this
weekend, then back into the upper 70s to around 80 by monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
The main concern for this TAF period will be for the chances of
thunderstorms. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows
thunderstorms moving across the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of
central South Dakota. Latest model guidance suggests that the
storms in South Dakota will continue to track south and into
central Nebraska. Timing for the storms to impact central Nebraska
will be between 03z and 12z. Any strong to severe storms will be
generally along and east of highway 83. Aside from any
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected across the region
through the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Thorne
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Thorne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1029 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Have issued several updates this evening to suite of forecast
products per conglomerate southward/southeastward moving
convectively generated sfc cold pool convection moving so
quickly across mid state region. Leaned toward latest HRRR
solution for continued progression of shwrs/tstms south and
southeastward across remaining portions of mid state region
likely within the next hour. Mentioned patchy fog after midnight
across entire mid state region. Will be issuing another update to
suite of forecast products here shortly to emphasize that
remaining numerous shwrs/tstms moving into srn and ern portions of
mid state should end by midnight. With some deepening of upper
level flow after midnight, especially across Upper Cumberland
Region which could support passage of an embedded shortwave in
flow, will probably continue mention sct shwrs across this
portion of mid state region overnight. Depending on latest cloud
coverage and sfc front expected to move out of cntrl srn KY and
move into at least portions of mid state region after midnight,
may adjust either up or down previous mid state forecasted
overnight low temps by a few degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this evening
through early overnight hours. Have in VCTS but also tempo groups
for best timing chances per short term models for each terminal.
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis will be possible with stronger showers and
storms should they pass over terminals. Fog will be possible as
well overnight, along with some lingering light showers, but
expecting VFR conditions after sunrise and during the day
Wednesday with westerly/northwesterly winds around 10 knots with
gusts to around 15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 71 90 70 92 72 / 80 20 10 20 40
Clarksville 70 87 68 89 71 / 100 10 10 30 40
Crossville 65 83 64 84 65 / 100 30 10 20 30
Columbia 71 90 68 90 71 / 100 20 10 30 40
Lawrenceburg 70 89 67 89 71 / 90 20 10 20 40
Waverly 71 89 69 88 71 / 100 10 10 30 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........Barnwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
503 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Today and Wednesday will be hot with afternoon temperatures well
into the 90s with many places in central Washington reaching
triple digits. Wildfire smoke will plague portions of the Inland
Northwest contributing to areas of poor air quality. Much cooler
weather will arrive this weekend as well a the potential for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The weather pattern across the West
is defined by a weak, closed upper low off the Pacific Northwest and
high pressure over the Four-Corners region. The Inland Northwest
resides under southwesterly flow aloft between the two systems.
Skies are mostly clear across the region, except some cirrus clouds
approaching us from the south.
The main forecast challenge for the next 24-48 hours will be
predicting the direction smoke blows from the Williams Flats
wildfire in Ferry County, and the Eagle Bluff wildfire in British
Columbia. The latest HRRR Smoke model shows a west to northwest wind
carrying smoke into the Spokane area late this afternoon and
evening, and currently visible satellite trends affirm this. Between
this and the already smoky/hazy conditions across much of the
region, persistence is the most likely scenario for the next day or
so.
Look for hot temperatures to continue through Wednesday as the Four-
Corners ridge of high pressure influences the region. Highs will
likely be in the 90s across much of the region again on Wednesday,
with 100s in parts of the Columbia Basin and Lewis-Clark Valley. The
heat advisory will continue through Wednesday, and high temperatures
will be within a few degrees of record territory.
Convection will also be a tricky forecast the next few days as
moisture slowly pushes northward. Our current expectation is for
thunderstorm activity to remain primarily to our south today. A few
thunderstorms may creep northward along the Cascades and toward SE
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
Dang
Thursday through Tuesday: Pattern change expected. South to north
path provided by the positioning of a closed low circulation off the
coast with negatively tilted ridging over the Pacific Northwest is a
possible path for thunderstorms as early as Thursday morning so some
minor slight chance pops are likely to be included in that part of
the forecast. Friday and on through the remainder of the weekend
disturbances rotating around the edges of the offshore low get slung
up northeast into Eastern Washington and North Idaho which help to
not only deamplify the ridge in place but may also bring about
convection as well as some increase in wind. This continues on
through the weekend involving the entire low ejecting inland
which may result in quite a wet and unsettled Saturday involving
very wet slow moving thunderstorms. In fact some of this convection
may move slow enough there is some potential for flash flooding
so it will need to be closely monitored. The removal of the ridge
leaves either a trof and/or flat zonal flow which marks the
remainder of the forecast with cooler temperatures and minor pops
for convection. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Mainly VFR conditions with light winds the next 24
hours. Smoke from the Williams Flats Fire will occasionally bring
reduced visibilities and MVFR conditions to KGEG-KSFF-KCOE aft 06Z.
Think the smoke will be a few hours delayed compared to yesterday
given the westerly winds keeping the smoke a bit further north
until it sags south into the Spokane area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 98 63 94 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 97 62 94 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Pullman 60 95 59 90 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
Lewiston 71 102 70 96 68 90 / 0 0 20 10 20 20
Colville 52 103 53 101 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
Sandpoint 57 95 57 93 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
Kellogg 66 93 65 91 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
Moses Lake 65 102 64 97 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 99 70 95 68 88 / 10 10 10 0 10 20
Omak 66 102 66 98 67 90 / 0 10 0 0 10 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
Lewiston Area.
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-East Slopes Northern
Cascades.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
933 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Lingering showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Ozarks will
slowly diminish over the next several hours as inhibition
increases. A diffuse stationary boundary remains roughly along a
Nevada to Rolla line and will likely not move much more overnight
given the mid/upper level mean flow. Areas that received rainfall
this evening may see some light/patchy fog overnight given the
light winds and high RH`s however widespread fog is currently not
expected.
Model guidance generally suggests a quiet/dry overnight period as
forcing for precip will remain mainly to our northwest across
Nebraska, on the nose of a modest 850mb low level jet and upper
level disturbance. Current thunderstorm activity across South
Dakota will likely move southeast towards the area, reaching the
region by mid to late Wednesday morning, however there is some
slight model difference in timing. NAM and HRRR have both been
consistently suggesting storms to move into the region tomorrow.
Regardless,confidence is high enough to go ahead and increase
PoPs during the daytime from northwest to southeast across the
area as well as reduce max temps into the middle 80s from
Springfield north and upper 80s south of Springfield. Some model
guidance suggests even lower highs however have nudged down
slightly for now closer to a consensus of short term models.
There also appears to be a signal for strong instability for some
severe storms and locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding tomorrow
as the thunderstorm complex moves through, especially if storms
become oriented from northwest to southeast and move over the same
areas. The later in the day the storms move through, the more
energy/instability they will have to work with versus the earlier
in the day. It is also possible there could be some redevelopment
by late afternoon/evening if storms move through earlier in the
day. Confidence is just not high enough for a Flash Flood Watch at
this time however will continue to monitor short term trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
It was a warm and muggy day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures reached the low 90s while most
locations remained dry. We did have a few showers that were
developing over the eastern Ozarks this afternoon, and we could
see a few more develop in areas along and east of Highway 63. We
also could see a couple of strong storms develop as well.
For tonight, additional thunderstorm development will be possible
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. A large complex of
storms is also expected to develop over Nebraska, and move into
the Ozarks Region during the Wednesday morning hours.
The CAPE - Shear combination looks strong enough for an episode of
severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
being the primary risks. There is also a localized flash flood
risk for any areas that experience slow moving or training
thunderstorms. This activity is expected to exit the Ozarks early
Wednesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
For Wednesday night, look for more thunderstorm chances with
overnight lows in the low 70s. We will need to monitor for the
risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding heading into the
Thursday. The NAM 12 and some other solutions are indicating that
several inches of rain will be possible somewhere either within
or near the Ozarks.
By Friday, there could be a few storms over far southwest
Missouri, however, we think most locations are looking dry through
Friday afternoon. However, thunderstorm development is very likely
Friday night into Saturday morning.
An upper level disturbance will approach from the west, bringing
numerous thunderstorms to the region during the day on Saturday,
and possibly extending into Saturday night.
The summertime high is supposed to creep a little closer to the
Ozarks by early next work week. This could bring warmer
temperatures, however, rain chances will also be in the offing
since the low center remains to the south and west of the area.
This upper air structure will keep the Ozarks within the overall
storm track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
Isolated showers and storms will diminish this evening with the
area remaining VFR and dry the remainder of the night. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on
Wednesday however timing is in question. Winds will remain
generally light out of the west to northwest.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield