Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/05/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
904 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Only minor changes were made to tonight`s forecast mainly to
increase POPs from now through around 2am. Water vapor imagery
shows plenty of moisture over the area and RAP analysis shows
decent divergence aloft. This combination will allow for showers
to continue mainly over the mountains and eastern plains. Moderate
westerly winds have pushed through the Denver metro this evening
which should keep conditions mainly dry. Only a few light showers
may make it to the surface there. With clouds and moisture in
place, low temperatures will be around 4 to 5 degrees above
normal tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Currently, scattered thunderstorms have developed over the
mountains and higher terrain this afternoon with very slow motions
to the east. Automated rainfall gauges showing up to a third of
an inch in 30 minutes with the stronger storms. Moisture levels
continue to increase with precipitable water values increasing to
close to an inch by this evening. Convergence boundary also
developing over the Denver area which will help to fire additional
storms over the urban corridor. Main threat with these storms
will be heavy rain and localized flooding possible. Storms have
been very "pulsy" with very weak shear aloft. Expect activity to
continue well into the evening before gradually diminishing
overnight. Appears there is weak wave in the weak flow that will
be pushing across the county warning area overnight.
A weak cold front will push southward across the plains Monday
morning with light northeast flow developing during the afternoon.
This will result in higher low level moisture and better CAPE
values 1000-2000j/kg for Monday afternoon. The flow aloft is
stronger by Monday afternoon so the severe potential is a bit
higher. Despite high level moisture, the stronger steering flow
will keep storm motions moving at 10-15kt at least. Temperatures
will also be a bit cooler behind the front with high temperatures
down into the upper 80s/lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019
For Monday night into Tuesday the center of the upper ridge will be
over the four corners region. A shortwave will move through the
northeastern portions of the state bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the eastern plains into the evening hours on
Monday. With CAPE values upwards of 2000 j/kg and PW values above 1
inch, storms will be capable of producing periods of heavy rain.
Deep layer shear values are decent from 30 to 40 kts that could
support an isolated severe storm with large hail, especially over
the far northeastern counties of Logan, Sedgwick and Phillips.
Storms will dissipate from the NW to the ESE after midnight with
increasing stability behind the shortwave.
From Tuesday through mid-week the ridge will deepen slightly over
the SW portions of the CONUS helping to cut off the plume of
moisture from the subtropics. This will be reflected in a slight
decreasement of specific humidity values over western Colorado
through the day Tuesday. However, there will still be enough
moisture across the high terrain and eastern plains to support
diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Storms will
initiate over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide, then move
eastward through the evening hours. Environmental factors such as
CAPE will be better East of a Sterling to Akron line with deep shear
values higher then Monday with values up to 45-50 kts. Storms will
be capable of producing moderate to heavy rain, lightning and hail
with gusty winds. Highs on Tuesday will continue in the lower to mid
90s on Tuesday.
The center of the upper level high will shift southeast into
portions of NM and TX Wednesday, then into TX by Thursday. Monsoon
moisture will push into the desert southwest and into the central
Rockies. Precipitable water values will climb back over an inch by
Wednesday and into Thursday. Storms will be possible both days with
higher coverage on Thursday due to a shortwave trough. Storms will
be capable of gusty winds, heavy rain and localized flooding. High
temperatures will drop into the upper 80s by mid-week and continue
that trend into the weekend.
For Friday into Saturday, the upper level ridge will remain over TX
helping to pull continued southwesterly flow over Colorado. This
will continue increased chances of showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be near seasonal
normals with highs in the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 832 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Moderate westerly winds have pushed through the terminals behind
an outflow boundary this evening. Expect these westerly winds to
continue through around midnight before switching to drainage. A
weak cold front will turn winds northerly during the late morning
with another round of storms expected Monday afternoon. The
primary concern with these storms will be strong winds but the
storms could also lower ceilings.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1041 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface and upper trough will linger in the forecast area
through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Monday. Typical summer
weather is foreseen for the remainder of the week with scattered
diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar shows scattered showers across the western
Midlands and upper CSRA. These showers continue to initiate on
outflow boundaries from earlier convection and aided by weak
upper lift associated with the upper trough over the region. Hi-
res guidance continues to show showers lingering through the
evening hours but eventually dissipating later tonight so will
continue to carry chance pops through midnight and then lower
pops a bit during the early morning hours.
Heavy rain remains the biggest concern with slow storm movement
and high PWAT values over 2 inches. Abundant low level moisture
in place and nocturnal cooling may support fog/stratus during
the predawn hours, especially favored at the typical locations
near river valleys. Overnight lows will again be in the lower
70s, limited by cloud cover overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough axis will slowly approach from the west on
Monday then shift east across the area Monday night. Meanwhile,
a weak surface trough/front will remain nearly stationary across
the area. An approaching short wave and ample moisture will
result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the
eastern Midlands and Pee Dee Monday morning, with additional
passing short waves producing numerous showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values around
2 inches and slow moving storms will once again result in a
heavy rainfall/localized flooding threat. Cloud cover and
precipitation will keep temperatures limited to highs in the
upper 80s for most areas. Lows Monday night will be around 70.
The upper trough will begin to dampen out on Tuesday. Given less
upper level support or boundary at the surface to act as a
focus for convection, expect the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms to be isolated or scattered at best. Temperatures
will moderate with highs in the lower to mid 90s and nighttime
lows in the lower 70s.
The upper level trough will begin to deepen once again on
Wednesday, with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected. Highs will generally be in the lower
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level trough will deepen to the east, placing the
region within a somewhat drier northwest flow aloft and causing
precipitable water values to lower. As a result, only expect
isolated to perhaps scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms
on Thursday and Friday. A short wave trough will swing through
during the start of the weekend, and with increasing moisture
there could be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. High temperatures will be on a warming trend Thursday and
could reach the mid to upper 90s by Friday, with slightly cooler
temperatures over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through the late
evening but coverage will be limited so impacts to the TAF
sites are unlikely.
Widespread rainfall occurred on Sunday and has lead to abundant
low level moisture, favoring early morning fog and stratus.
Although mostly cloudy skies will inhibit ideal radiational
cooling conditions, areas of low stratus should develop
overnight brining IFR or possibly LIFR restrictions. In addition
AGS and DNL, which experienced heavy rainfall Sunday, are more
likely to have limited visibility from early morning fog. The
HRRR which has performed well the past few days has been
trending more pessimistic with mainly ceiling restrictions from
08Z to around 12Z.
Monday, an approaching short wave and ample moisture will
result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Monday
morning. Additional passing short waves will produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. We have
added VCTS for all TAF sites from 18Z to 00Z due to the high
coverage expected. Winds will be light through the TAF period
and generally out of the W or NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Atmospheric moisture remains high
through Wednesday, supporting late night and early morning
stratus and fog plus mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
The main forecast concern was focused on the cold front and storm
potential associated with it Monday into Monday night. The GFS and
ECMWF look to be in better agreement with a solution Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing another front southward into the
state. The remainder of the work week is questionable wrt to
storms/severe chances with the surface high pressure over the
region and a few shortwaves trying to ride the upper level
northwest flow into the state. Thus, there remains low confidence
in any timing and location of storms.
Tonight into Tuesday...weak shortwave tracking across central and
southern Minnesota may spawn a few storms later this afternoon and
evening in this location as well as the far northwest corner of
the CWA. Highly sunshine dependent and there is a cu field
developed across far northwest Iowa, but the better deep moisture
convergence and forcing (what little there is) remains over
portions of Minnesota. Kept the mention of slight pops with the
outside chance of a storm rolling into Emmet County through 00z at
the latest. Otherwise, expect another ideal evening across Iowa
with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s and light winds
becoming southwest by Monday morning.
The next shortwave and associated cold front looks to swing
through the region Monday afternoon into the evening hours.
Timing is a bit slower per 04.12z NAM and ECMWF (and the 04.18z
HRRR and 04.12z HREF), which supports a better potential for
severe storms in the afternoon Monday with the lack of any
convection in the morning to slow down the instability building
into the CWA. MUCAPE values increase to 2000 J/kg to near 3000
J/kg by the afternoon with decent 0-6km shear of 30 knots. DCAPE
ranges from 300 to as high as 1300 J/kg according to the NAM. As
mentioned, the hires models suggest redevelopment past 22z Monday
and remain confident in the hail and damaging wind threat. Storms
linger across the southeast early Tuesday morning before the
potential for redevelopment past 18z across the southeast.
However, surface high pressure builds into the state providing
enough subsidence and dry air that the longevity of these storms
remains low.
Wednesday through Sunday...MCW looks to develop over portions of
Nebraska and track into eastern Kansas and western Missouri
WEdnesday night into Thursday. This may clip the southwest
portions of the state during the aforementioned time.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Expecting VFR conditions through at least 18Z of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and variable. TSRA will develop along a
boundary across northern Iowa around 18Z and expand through the
remainder of the TAF period across northern and central Iowa.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks to the forecast package tonight to account for trends
in radar imagery and observations. Temperatures across the area,
especially west of I-45 tonight are running warm by a few
degrees, so went ahead and adjusted hourly temperatures up a
notch. Otherwise, earlier shower activity has dissipated this
evening, so went ahead removed the mention of a slight chance for
showers from the forecast through the early morning hours. The
HRRR and RAP both initialized best this evening in terms of timing
and coverage, so went ahead and trended the short term closer to
those model solutions. Showers and isolated thunderstorms look to
return along the coast and over the bays and Gulf waters shortly
before sunrise.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/...
.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA activity around the northern terminals has
started to dissipate, and will continue to do so over the next
couple of hours. Overnight, conditions remain within VFR
thresholds at all terminals, with mostly light and variable winds.
Tomorrow we again expect to see SHRA/TSRA activity developing
along the sea breeze as it propagates northward, reaching metro
terminals by approximately 17Z and lasting through the early
evening hours...but generally conditions remain VFR.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 94 76 96 76 / 20 20 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 92 76 94 78 / 20 40 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 91 82 91 83 / 20 40 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1148 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
High pressure in place across the midwest will continue to provide
mainly dry weather tonight through Monday Evening. An isolated
shower or storm is possible on Monday afternoon...but most spots
will remain dry.
An upper level weather disturbance will arrive in the area on
early Tuesday morning...bringing rain chances back to Indiana.
Another round of showers are possible on Wednesday. Chances for
rain are expected to persist late this work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
over Iowa and Missouri. Light NE surface flow was in place across
Indiana with dew point temperatures near 60. GOES16 show mostly
clear skies across Indiana...with only a few CI present. Water
vapor shows strong ridging in place across the Rockies...with NW
flow in place streaming in to the Ohio Valley.
HRRR barely shows only minor...very isolated shower development
across northern parts of Central Indiana today. Based upon
satellite trend and a lack of cu development across the
area...confidence for any diurnal convection is quickly waning.
Thus as daytime heating is lost again...expect just a mostly clear
sky again tonight as the surface high will remain in place. With
little chance in the overall air mass...will again trend lows
toward persistence.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Monday appears to the be the last day in what has been an
unchanging weather pattern of the past week. Once again the
Surface high looks be the dominate weather feature as it is
expected to sag southward across Indiana to the deep south on
Monday night...setting up a light westerly flow. Forecast sounding
again hint as some instability available due to diurnal heating
on Monday afternoon...but given the recent trends and lack of
expected overall coverage...rain chances so slim to not be worthy
of a mention. Will trend toward partly cloudy with persistence
for highs.
On Late Monday night/early Tuesday morning...the GFS suggests a
moderate short wave reaching Indiana within the NW flow aloft. A
frontal boundary looks to accompany this feature. Time heights and
forecast soundings show the column trending toward saturation with
good lift in the vicinity. Thus will trend pops at or above the
NBM for late Monday and early Tuesday.
By Tuesday afternoon...the GFS shows the surface front and
associated forcing well east of Indiana. Forecast soundings appear
to be drying out. Thus as we approach Tuesday evening and night
will trend toward dry pops.
The GFS depicts yet another...yet somewhat less strong shortwave
to push across Indiana on Wednesday afternoon. Moisture appears
to be more limited with this feature as forecast soundings never
really trend toward saturation. Will trend pops here at or below
the NBM at this time as confidence is low.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
The long term pattern is characterized by a large upper trough
over the eastern U.S. and an upper ridge over the western/central
U.S. This will keep Indiana in a northwest flow pattern, which
will bring temperatures back down to near normal during the
extended. There will be some small off and on chances for
thunderstorms until the weekend, but no major forcing is apparent
and ensembles differ on timing of minor upper waves moving through
the main flow so no particular day to focus on. As the weekend
arrives, the upper ridge gets closer and could put to an end any
chances for rain or storms.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 05/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Conditions will be at VFR levels outside of any fog formation
early this morning. Cannot rule out MVFR/IFR fog formation in the
0509/0513 time frame. Otherwise, VFR will be the predominant
flight category for most of the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will
generally be light and eventually becoming westerly.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
The main concern this forecast period is thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to
develop across northwest Nebraska this afternoon. There is some
inconsistencies with the models in how far eastward the
thunderstorms will sustain themselves. Leaned more with HRRR and
HREF where storms will form into a cluster across northern
Nebraska and drop southeastward but should enter a less favorable
environment and will begin to diminish before reaching portions
of southwest and central Nebraska.
Storms that occur late this afternoon and evening have the
potential to become strong to severe, with the main hazards being
strong winds, large hail and heavy rain potential. The best chance
for severe thunderstorms will be across northwestern Nebraska,
mainly along and west of a line from Kilgore to Ellsworth.
A cold front will push through the area on Monday. There is a
chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in
association with the cold front. At this time the severe threat
looks to be marginal as storms may develop behind the cold front
in a less favorable environment for severe storms but with the
amount of moister in the area could have the potential for heavy
rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Surface high pressure will sit over the Central Plains Tuesday
into Wednesday before a frontal boundary moves through the area
Wednesday evening. Highs will remain seasonal in the 80s, with
slight chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A better chance of widespread thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon in association with the cold front. Cooler temperatures
on Thursday and Friday with highs only in the upper 70s to low
80s. There will be a chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Scattered thunderstorms across the central Sandhills to near VTN
will continue to push south and east this evening. Expect quickly
improving conditions at VTN with return to VFR by 05/01z. Rain and
storms will move into TIF/ANW/ONL areas by 05/02-04z timeframe and
be capable of brief strong winds up to 35 knots and visibility
less than 1 mile with RA+. Confidence in impacts at LBF are low at
the moment so have limited wording to VCSH for now with possible
amendments to come later.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Jurgensen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
914 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...Bumped up pops for Avoyelles and Rapides parishes with
convection approaching from the north. The trend has been a
lessening and weakening of the convection, but radar imagery
depicting several outflows advancing north and northeast that
will merge with activity that should restrengthen convection
temporarily.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/
DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.
AVIATION...
Local 88Ds show diurnal convection beginning to wane with daytime
heating coming to an end while the atmosphere has been pretty well
worked over for much of the forecast area...have held onto VCTS
for the next couple of hours all terminals to account for
lingering storms. Also threw in a TEMPO for the Acadiana terminals
as 88Ds show a little more widespread activity in this area.
Overnight, flying weather looks quiet as VFR conditions should
prevail...will have to take a closer look at fog potential with
the 06z TAFs for KLFT/KARA based on potential rainfall next hour.
Back to a more summer-like day tomorrow with convection mainly
driven by heating/boundary collisions as shortwave trof axis is
expected to be east of the area.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak sfc high pressure ridge across the Northern
Gulf and southern states. Aloft, similar conditions with weak
steering currents until around 250mb, which shows ridge over W
TX/NM, trough over the Eastern U.S. giving northerly flow over our
region between the two features.
Radar showing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over SE TX, scattered across S LA along the seabreeze. HRRR &
local ARW model shows this convection continuing through 00-01z
then rapidly diminishing around sunset and the loss of daytime
heating. However, expect convection to redevelop between 4-7 AM
Monday morning across the coastal waters, and slowly spread inland
once again late Monday morning into the afternoon, and can be
expected for Tuesday as well.
By Wednesday, the mid to upper level ridge to our west will build/
shift eastward towards our region. This will begin to diminish the
chances of showers and thunderstorms, but will also bring a
gradual increase in temperatures for afternoon highs, as well as
overnight lows. A little early for specifics on heat index values,
but preliminary estimates yield max heat index values in the
102-107 range Thursday through Saturday afternoons.
DML
MARINE...
High pressure over the northern Gulf will persist into early next
week. This will help maintain light southerly winds and low seas.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the
overnight and early morning hours though midweek. Winds and seas
will be locally higher near any thunderstorms. By Thursday into
next weekend, chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually
diminish as high pressure aloft moves over the region.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 92 73 92 / 40 40 10 30
LCH 76 91 76 90 / 30 40 10 30
LFT 74 91 75 90 / 30 40 20 40
BPT 76 88 76 89 / 40 50 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Aviation discussion updated below.
Storms in south central SD into NE will remain south of our area,
but should spread some high clouds over southern MN tonight.
Of greater concern is that some of the short term models are
suggesting that the storms Monday morning could be pretty hefty,
with the NAM and HRRR depicting potential for significant wind.
This will depend on storm evolution, of course, as the storms come
out of southern ND and northern SD, but it is something to watch.
Any redevelopment in the afternoon will depend on how strong and
widespread the morning storms are.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
A few showers have developed over western WI this afternoon, but
they are rather small and satellite presentation has been less
than impressive. May see a stray lightning strike out of them
during the next couple hours, otherwise they should remain as
showers.
An MCV over southern South Dakota is riding the northern periphery
of the southern Rockies` ridge eastward this afternoon. Cloud tops
have been warming and lightning activity has decreased. It is
likely this feature will eventually peter out as it begins to dive
southeast during the next few hours. Additional thunderstorm
activity will develop as a trough begins to reach North Dakota and
northern Minnesota overnight. This activity could be severe, but
by the time it begins to reach central Minnesota early Monday
morning it will outrun a more favorable environment ensuring a
weakening trend. The front, along with showers and embedded
thunderstorms will pass through Monday morning and early
afternoon, with activity possibly intensifying across southern MN
into western WI during the mid afternoon hours. Mid level lapse
rates are poor, which should limit the severe threat somewhat.
Still, there will be enough shear and modest amounts of
instability to potentially support a few stronger storms into the
early evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
A fairly quiet workweek is expected after the front drops south of
the area Monday night, as ridging to the southwest builds back in
and places the upper midwest under drier northwest flow aloft. A few
weak impulses in the northwest flow could lead to diurnally-driven
spotty shower and thunderstorm chances, but the only real shot at
organized precipitation comes Wednesday as a cutoff low over
northern Ontario drags a cold front through the region. Still some
uncertainty on how much precipitation we`ll actually see however, as
we get split by forcing from the upper low to our north and a
shortwave rounding the ridge to our southwest over eastern
SD/western Iowa. Will continue to keep PoPs in the 20-40% range to
account for this uncertainty. A favorable environment for
strong/severe thunderstorms will exist south of where the front ends
up Wednesday afternoon, if we manage enough forcing aloft, with CAPE
values around 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values around 30
kts. A return to an active pattern then looks possible this weekend
into next week as the ridge flattens in response to a trough coming
ashore in the pacific NW.
Temperatures will be cooler but still seasonable next week with
highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 50s
to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
Cumulus will dissipate this evening, with mostly clear skies most
likely in west central WI. Some fog is possible late tonight from
west central WI into south central MN, where south winds will be
the weakest. Elsewhere, south winds around 4-5 knots and incoming
high clouds should keep most of the fog at bay.
Main question will be arrivsal of storms. The CAMs are somewhat
variable, but most agree on storms entering west central MN in the
12z-15z time frame and moving east and southeast. There may be
some chance of storm redevelopment in south central MN later
Monday afternoon.
KMSP...Doubt there will any reduced visibility from fog late
tonight. Main concern will be timing of storms on Monday. The
best chance appears to be between 15-20Z, but they should not
last the entire time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon night...VFR. NW wind 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Still dealing with some widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity across portions of Northeast and East Central Louisiana
late this evening. This convection continues to fire along
residual outflow boundaries from previous convection and an area
of slightly higher PWAT from latest mesoanalysis. HRRR has a
pretty good handle on this activity and continues to diminish it
the closer we get to midnight without much in the way of
additional activity developing through the overnight hours. For
this reason, have adjusted pops upwards across our southeast
parishes only through midnight and then kept slight chance pops
going for this same region through the remainder of the night.
Temps are in the ballpark as far as hourly fcst temps are
concerned but did adjust hourly temp, dewpoint and rh grids to
mimic current trends as well as sky grids.
No other changes to the forecast were necessary with this update.
Updated package will be coming out shortly...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/
AVIATION...
Still dealing with isolated showers and thunderstorms across our
airspace this evening. One of which is in the vicinity of the MLU
terminal but coverage has really dissipated during the last hour
and expect this trend to continue over the next couple hours. Will
deal with any VCTS issues with amendments if necessary. Otherwise
the only issue keeping terminals from remaining VFR would be the
development of fog and have therefore added this possibility at
the MLU, TXK, ELD and LFK terminals. With LFK having seen heavy
rainfall earlier today, would not be surprised to see dense fog
developing at this terminal after midnight. Otherwise, any VSBY
concerns will quickly improve after sunrise on Monday with VFR
conditions quickly returning to all terminal locations after
13/14z.
Look for light and variable winds overnight, remaining light and
variable through the daytime hours on Monday.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 20
MLU 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 20
DEQ 71 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 72 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 20
ELD 72 93 74 94 / 10 20 10 20
TYR 75 92 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
GGG 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 75 93 75 94 / 10 40 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
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