Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/05/19


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
904 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Only minor changes were made to tonight`s forecast mainly to increase POPs from now through around 2am. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of moisture over the area and RAP analysis shows decent divergence aloft. This combination will allow for showers to continue mainly over the mountains and eastern plains. Moderate westerly winds have pushed through the Denver metro this evening which should keep conditions mainly dry. Only a few light showers may make it to the surface there. With clouds and moisture in place, low temperatures will be around 4 to 5 degrees above normal tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Currently, scattered thunderstorms have developed over the mountains and higher terrain this afternoon with very slow motions to the east. Automated rainfall gauges showing up to a third of an inch in 30 minutes with the stronger storms. Moisture levels continue to increase with precipitable water values increasing to close to an inch by this evening. Convergence boundary also developing over the Denver area which will help to fire additional storms over the urban corridor. Main threat with these storms will be heavy rain and localized flooding possible. Storms have been very "pulsy" with very weak shear aloft. Expect activity to continue well into the evening before gradually diminishing overnight. Appears there is weak wave in the weak flow that will be pushing across the county warning area overnight. A weak cold front will push southward across the plains Monday morning with light northeast flow developing during the afternoon. This will result in higher low level moisture and better CAPE values 1000-2000j/kg for Monday afternoon. The flow aloft is stronger by Monday afternoon so the severe potential is a bit higher. Despite high level moisture, the stronger steering flow will keep storm motions moving at 10-15kt at least. Temperatures will also be a bit cooler behind the front with high temperatures down into the upper 80s/lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 For Monday night into Tuesday the center of the upper ridge will be over the four corners region. A shortwave will move through the northeastern portions of the state bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the eastern plains into the evening hours on Monday. With CAPE values upwards of 2000 j/kg and PW values above 1 inch, storms will be capable of producing periods of heavy rain. Deep layer shear values are decent from 30 to 40 kts that could support an isolated severe storm with large hail, especially over the far northeastern counties of Logan, Sedgwick and Phillips. Storms will dissipate from the NW to the ESE after midnight with increasing stability behind the shortwave. From Tuesday through mid-week the ridge will deepen slightly over the SW portions of the CONUS helping to cut off the plume of moisture from the subtropics. This will be reflected in a slight decreasement of specific humidity values over western Colorado through the day Tuesday. However, there will still be enough moisture across the high terrain and eastern plains to support diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide, then move eastward through the evening hours. Environmental factors such as CAPE will be better East of a Sterling to Akron line with deep shear values higher then Monday with values up to 45-50 kts. Storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rain, lightning and hail with gusty winds. Highs on Tuesday will continue in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday. The center of the upper level high will shift southeast into portions of NM and TX Wednesday, then into TX by Thursday. Monsoon moisture will push into the desert southwest and into the central Rockies. Precipitable water values will climb back over an inch by Wednesday and into Thursday. Storms will be possible both days with higher coverage on Thursday due to a shortwave trough. Storms will be capable of gusty winds, heavy rain and localized flooding. High temperatures will drop into the upper 80s by mid-week and continue that trend into the weekend. For Friday into Saturday, the upper level ridge will remain over TX helping to pull continued southwesterly flow over Colorado. This will continue increased chances of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs in the upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 832 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Moderate westerly winds have pushed through the terminals behind an outflow boundary this evening. Expect these westerly winds to continue through around midnight before switching to drainage. A weak cold front will turn winds northerly during the late morning with another round of storms expected Monday afternoon. The primary concern with these storms will be strong winds but the storms could also lower ceilings. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Danielson SHORT TERM...Entrekin LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1041 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A surface and upper trough will linger in the forecast area through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday. Typical summer weather is foreseen for the remainder of the week with scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Regional radar shows scattered showers across the western Midlands and upper CSRA. These showers continue to initiate on outflow boundaries from earlier convection and aided by weak upper lift associated with the upper trough over the region. Hi- res guidance continues to show showers lingering through the evening hours but eventually dissipating later tonight so will continue to carry chance pops through midnight and then lower pops a bit during the early morning hours. Heavy rain remains the biggest concern with slow storm movement and high PWAT values over 2 inches. Abundant low level moisture in place and nocturnal cooling may support fog/stratus during the predawn hours, especially favored at the typical locations near river valleys. Overnight lows will again be in the lower 70s, limited by cloud cover overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough axis will slowly approach from the west on Monday then shift east across the area Monday night. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/front will remain nearly stationary across the area. An approaching short wave and ample moisture will result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee Monday morning, with additional passing short waves producing numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values around 2 inches and slow moving storms will once again result in a heavy rainfall/localized flooding threat. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures limited to highs in the upper 80s for most areas. Lows Monday night will be around 70. The upper trough will begin to dampen out on Tuesday. Given less upper level support or boundary at the surface to act as a focus for convection, expect the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to be isolated or scattered at best. Temperatures will moderate with highs in the lower to mid 90s and nighttime lows in the lower 70s. The upper level trough will begin to deepen once again on Wednesday, with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper-level trough will deepen to the east, placing the region within a somewhat drier northwest flow aloft and causing precipitable water values to lower. As a result, only expect isolated to perhaps scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. A short wave trough will swing through during the start of the weekend, and with increasing moisture there could be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. High temperatures will be on a warming trend Thursday and could reach the mid to upper 90s by Friday, with slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through the late evening but coverage will be limited so impacts to the TAF sites are unlikely. Widespread rainfall occurred on Sunday and has lead to abundant low level moisture, favoring early morning fog and stratus. Although mostly cloudy skies will inhibit ideal radiational cooling conditions, areas of low stratus should develop overnight brining IFR or possibly LIFR restrictions. In addition AGS and DNL, which experienced heavy rainfall Sunday, are more likely to have limited visibility from early morning fog. The HRRR which has performed well the past few days has been trending more pessimistic with mainly ceiling restrictions from 08Z to around 12Z. Monday, an approaching short wave and ample moisture will result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Monday morning. Additional passing short waves will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. We have added VCTS for all TAF sites from 18Z to 00Z due to the high coverage expected. Winds will be light through the TAF period and generally out of the W or NW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Atmospheric moisture remains high through Wednesday, supporting late night and early morning stratus and fog plus mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The main forecast concern was focused on the cold front and storm potential associated with it Monday into Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF look to be in better agreement with a solution Wednesday night into Thursday bringing another front southward into the state. The remainder of the work week is questionable wrt to storms/severe chances with the surface high pressure over the region and a few shortwaves trying to ride the upper level northwest flow into the state. Thus, there remains low confidence in any timing and location of storms. Tonight into Tuesday...weak shortwave tracking across central and southern Minnesota may spawn a few storms later this afternoon and evening in this location as well as the far northwest corner of the CWA. Highly sunshine dependent and there is a cu field developed across far northwest Iowa, but the better deep moisture convergence and forcing (what little there is) remains over portions of Minnesota. Kept the mention of slight pops with the outside chance of a storm rolling into Emmet County through 00z at the latest. Otherwise, expect another ideal evening across Iowa with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s and light winds becoming southwest by Monday morning. The next shortwave and associated cold front looks to swing through the region Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Timing is a bit slower per 04.12z NAM and ECMWF (and the 04.18z HRRR and 04.12z HREF), which supports a better potential for severe storms in the afternoon Monday with the lack of any convection in the morning to slow down the instability building into the CWA. MUCAPE values increase to 2000 J/kg to near 3000 J/kg by the afternoon with decent 0-6km shear of 30 knots. DCAPE ranges from 300 to as high as 1300 J/kg according to the NAM. As mentioned, the hires models suggest redevelopment past 22z Monday and remain confident in the hail and damaging wind threat. Storms linger across the southeast early Tuesday morning before the potential for redevelopment past 18z across the southeast. However, surface high pressure builds into the state providing enough subsidence and dry air that the longevity of these storms remains low. Wednesday through Sunday...MCW looks to develop over portions of Nebraska and track into eastern Kansas and western Missouri WEdnesday night into Thursday. This may clip the southwest portions of the state during the aforementioned time. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/ Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Expecting VFR conditions through at least 18Z of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable. TSRA will develop along a boundary across northern Iowa around 18Z and expand through the remainder of the TAF period across northern and central Iowa. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Podrazik AVIATION...FAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... Minor tweaks to the forecast package tonight to account for trends in radar imagery and observations. Temperatures across the area, especially west of I-45 tonight are running warm by a few degrees, so went ahead and adjusted hourly temperatures up a notch. Otherwise, earlier shower activity has dissipated this evening, so went ahead removed the mention of a slight chance for showers from the forecast through the early morning hours. The HRRR and RAP both initialized best this evening in terms of timing and coverage, so went ahead and trended the short term closer to those model solutions. Showers and isolated thunderstorms look to return along the coast and over the bays and Gulf waters shortly before sunrise. Hathaway && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/... .AVIATION... Scattered SHRA/TSRA activity around the northern terminals has started to dissipate, and will continue to do so over the next couple of hours. Overnight, conditions remain within VFR thresholds at all terminals, with mostly light and variable winds. Tomorrow we again expect to see SHRA/TSRA activity developing along the sea breeze as it propagates northward, reaching metro terminals by approximately 17Z and lasting through the early evening hours...but generally conditions remain VFR. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 94 76 96 76 / 20 20 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 77 92 76 94 78 / 20 40 10 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 91 82 91 83 / 20 40 20 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1148 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure in place across the midwest will continue to provide mainly dry weather tonight through Monday Evening. An isolated shower or storm is possible on Monday afternoon...but most spots will remain dry. An upper level weather disturbance will arrive in the area on early Tuesday morning...bringing rain chances back to Indiana. Another round of showers are possible on Wednesday. Chances for rain are expected to persist late this work week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place over Iowa and Missouri. Light NE surface flow was in place across Indiana with dew point temperatures near 60. GOES16 show mostly clear skies across Indiana...with only a few CI present. Water vapor shows strong ridging in place across the Rockies...with NW flow in place streaming in to the Ohio Valley. HRRR barely shows only minor...very isolated shower development across northern parts of Central Indiana today. Based upon satellite trend and a lack of cu development across the area...confidence for any diurnal convection is quickly waning. Thus as daytime heating is lost again...expect just a mostly clear sky again tonight as the surface high will remain in place. With little chance in the overall air mass...will again trend lows toward persistence. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Monday appears to the be the last day in what has been an unchanging weather pattern of the past week. Once again the Surface high looks be the dominate weather feature as it is expected to sag southward across Indiana to the deep south on Monday night...setting up a light westerly flow. Forecast sounding again hint as some instability available due to diurnal heating on Monday afternoon...but given the recent trends and lack of expected overall coverage...rain chances so slim to not be worthy of a mention. Will trend toward partly cloudy with persistence for highs. On Late Monday night/early Tuesday morning...the GFS suggests a moderate short wave reaching Indiana within the NW flow aloft. A frontal boundary looks to accompany this feature. Time heights and forecast soundings show the column trending toward saturation with good lift in the vicinity. Thus will trend pops at or above the NBM for late Monday and early Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon...the GFS shows the surface front and associated forcing well east of Indiana. Forecast soundings appear to be drying out. Thus as we approach Tuesday evening and night will trend toward dry pops. The GFS depicts yet another...yet somewhat less strong shortwave to push across Indiana on Wednesday afternoon. Moisture appears to be more limited with this feature as forecast soundings never really trend toward saturation. Will trend pops here at or below the NBM at this time as confidence is low. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The long term pattern is characterized by a large upper trough over the eastern U.S. and an upper ridge over the western/central U.S. This will keep Indiana in a northwest flow pattern, which will bring temperatures back down to near normal during the extended. There will be some small off and on chances for thunderstorms until the weekend, but no major forcing is apparent and ensembles differ on timing of minor upper waves moving through the main flow so no particular day to focus on. As the weekend arrives, the upper ridge gets closer and could put to an end any chances for rain or storms. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 05/06Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Conditions will be at VFR levels outside of any fog formation early this morning. Cannot rule out MVFR/IFR fog formation in the 0509/0513 time frame. Otherwise, VFR will be the predominant flight category for most of the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will generally be light and eventually becoming westerly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The main concern this forecast period is thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to develop across northwest Nebraska this afternoon. There is some inconsistencies with the models in how far eastward the thunderstorms will sustain themselves. Leaned more with HRRR and HREF where storms will form into a cluster across northern Nebraska and drop southeastward but should enter a less favorable environment and will begin to diminish before reaching portions of southwest and central Nebraska. Storms that occur late this afternoon and evening have the potential to become strong to severe, with the main hazards being strong winds, large hail and heavy rain potential. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be across northwestern Nebraska, mainly along and west of a line from Kilgore to Ellsworth. A cold front will push through the area on Monday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in association with the cold front. At this time the severe threat looks to be marginal as storms may develop behind the cold front in a less favorable environment for severe storms but with the amount of moister in the area could have the potential for heavy rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Surface high pressure will sit over the Central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday before a frontal boundary moves through the area Wednesday evening. Highs will remain seasonal in the 80s, with slight chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A better chance of widespread thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon in association with the cold front. Cooler temperatures on Thursday and Friday with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be a chance of thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Scattered thunderstorms across the central Sandhills to near VTN will continue to push south and east this evening. Expect quickly improving conditions at VTN with return to VFR by 05/01z. Rain and storms will move into TIF/ANW/ONL areas by 05/02-04z timeframe and be capable of brief strong winds up to 35 knots and visibility less than 1 mile with RA+. Confidence in impacts at LBF are low at the moment so have limited wording to VCSH for now with possible amendments to come later. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Jurgensen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
914 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE...Bumped up pops for Avoyelles and Rapides parishes with convection approaching from the north. The trend has been a lessening and weakening of the convection, but radar imagery depicting several outflows advancing north and northeast that will merge with activity that should restrengthen convection temporarily. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ DISCUSSION... For 00z TAF issuance. AVIATION... Local 88Ds show diurnal convection beginning to wane with daytime heating coming to an end while the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over for much of the forecast area...have held onto VCTS for the next couple of hours all terminals to account for lingering storms. Also threw in a TEMPO for the Acadiana terminals as 88Ds show a little more widespread activity in this area. Overnight, flying weather looks quiet as VFR conditions should prevail...will have to take a closer look at fog potential with the 06z TAFs for KLFT/KARA based on potential rainfall next hour. Back to a more summer-like day tomorrow with convection mainly driven by heating/boundary collisions as shortwave trof axis is expected to be east of the area. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows weak sfc high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf and southern states. Aloft, similar conditions with weak steering currents until around 250mb, which shows ridge over W TX/NM, trough over the Eastern U.S. giving northerly flow over our region between the two features. Radar showing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over SE TX, scattered across S LA along the seabreeze. HRRR & local ARW model shows this convection continuing through 00-01z then rapidly diminishing around sunset and the loss of daytime heating. However, expect convection to redevelop between 4-7 AM Monday morning across the coastal waters, and slowly spread inland once again late Monday morning into the afternoon, and can be expected for Tuesday as well. By Wednesday, the mid to upper level ridge to our west will build/ shift eastward towards our region. This will begin to diminish the chances of showers and thunderstorms, but will also bring a gradual increase in temperatures for afternoon highs, as well as overnight lows. A little early for specifics on heat index values, but preliminary estimates yield max heat index values in the 102-107 range Thursday through Saturday afternoons. DML MARINE... High pressure over the northern Gulf will persist into early next week. This will help maintain light southerly winds and low seas. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the overnight and early morning hours though midweek. Winds and seas will be locally higher near any thunderstorms. By Thursday into next weekend, chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish as high pressure aloft moves over the region. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 92 73 92 / 40 40 10 30 LCH 76 91 76 90 / 30 40 10 30 LFT 74 91 75 90 / 30 40 20 40 BPT 76 88 76 89 / 40 50 20 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Aviation discussion updated below. Storms in south central SD into NE will remain south of our area, but should spread some high clouds over southern MN tonight. Of greater concern is that some of the short term models are suggesting that the storms Monday morning could be pretty hefty, with the NAM and HRRR depicting potential for significant wind. This will depend on storm evolution, of course, as the storms come out of southern ND and northern SD, but it is something to watch. Any redevelopment in the afternoon will depend on how strong and widespread the morning storms are. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A few showers have developed over western WI this afternoon, but they are rather small and satellite presentation has been less than impressive. May see a stray lightning strike out of them during the next couple hours, otherwise they should remain as showers. An MCV over southern South Dakota is riding the northern periphery of the southern Rockies` ridge eastward this afternoon. Cloud tops have been warming and lightning activity has decreased. It is likely this feature will eventually peter out as it begins to dive southeast during the next few hours. Additional thunderstorm activity will develop as a trough begins to reach North Dakota and northern Minnesota overnight. This activity could be severe, but by the time it begins to reach central Minnesota early Monday morning it will outrun a more favorable environment ensuring a weakening trend. The front, along with showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass through Monday morning and early afternoon, with activity possibly intensifying across southern MN into western WI during the mid afternoon hours. Mid level lapse rates are poor, which should limit the severe threat somewhat. Still, there will be enough shear and modest amounts of instability to potentially support a few stronger storms into the early evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A fairly quiet workweek is expected after the front drops south of the area Monday night, as ridging to the southwest builds back in and places the upper midwest under drier northwest flow aloft. A few weak impulses in the northwest flow could lead to diurnally-driven spotty shower and thunderstorm chances, but the only real shot at organized precipitation comes Wednesday as a cutoff low over northern Ontario drags a cold front through the region. Still some uncertainty on how much precipitation we`ll actually see however, as we get split by forcing from the upper low to our north and a shortwave rounding the ridge to our southwest over eastern SD/western Iowa. Will continue to keep PoPs in the 20-40% range to account for this uncertainty. A favorable environment for strong/severe thunderstorms will exist south of where the front ends up Wednesday afternoon, if we manage enough forcing aloft, with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values around 30 kts. A return to an active pattern then looks possible this weekend into next week as the ridge flattens in response to a trough coming ashore in the pacific NW. Temperatures will be cooler but still seasonable next week with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Cumulus will dissipate this evening, with mostly clear skies most likely in west central WI. Some fog is possible late tonight from west central WI into south central MN, where south winds will be the weakest. Elsewhere, south winds around 4-5 knots and incoming high clouds should keep most of the fog at bay. Main question will be arrivsal of storms. The CAMs are somewhat variable, but most agree on storms entering west central MN in the 12z-15z time frame and moving east and southeast. There may be some chance of storm redevelopment in south central MN later Monday afternoon. KMSP...Doubt there will any reduced visibility from fog late tonight. Main concern will be timing of storms on Monday. The best chance appears to be between 15-20Z, but they should not last the entire time. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon night...VFR. NW wind 5 kts. Tue...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts. Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...ETA AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... Still dealing with some widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of Northeast and East Central Louisiana late this evening. This convection continues to fire along residual outflow boundaries from previous convection and an area of slightly higher PWAT from latest mesoanalysis. HRRR has a pretty good handle on this activity and continues to diminish it the closer we get to midnight without much in the way of additional activity developing through the overnight hours. For this reason, have adjusted pops upwards across our southeast parishes only through midnight and then kept slight chance pops going for this same region through the remainder of the night. Temps are in the ballpark as far as hourly fcst temps are concerned but did adjust hourly temp, dewpoint and rh grids to mimic current trends as well as sky grids. No other changes to the forecast were necessary with this update. Updated package will be coming out shortly...13. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ AVIATION... Still dealing with isolated showers and thunderstorms across our airspace this evening. One of which is in the vicinity of the MLU terminal but coverage has really dissipated during the last hour and expect this trend to continue over the next couple hours. Will deal with any VCTS issues with amendments if necessary. Otherwise the only issue keeping terminals from remaining VFR would be the development of fog and have therefore added this possibility at the MLU, TXK, ELD and LFK terminals. With LFK having seen heavy rainfall earlier today, would not be surprised to see dense fog developing at this terminal after midnight. Otherwise, any VSBY concerns will quickly improve after sunrise on Monday with VFR conditions quickly returning to all terminal locations after 13/14z. Look for light and variable winds overnight, remaining light and variable through the daytime hours on Monday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 MLU 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 20 DEQ 71 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 72 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 20 ELD 72 93 74 94 / 10 20 10 20 TYR 75 92 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 GGG 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 LFK 75 93 75 94 / 10 40 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/13