Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/04/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface and upper trough will linger in the forecast area
through Tuesday. There will be scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough axis remains to our west over TN/AL/GA with upper
ridging off the coast. Precipitable water values are a bit lower
over our area compared to the coast and offshore which may in part
explain why convective coverage has been relatively sparse. Looking
at the SPC mesoanalysis at 700mb-500mb moisture there is a minimum
over our area. Regional radar showing some isolated showers but they
are low topped with little lightning due to very poor mid level
lapse rates and the drier air mentioned above.
Expect lingering showers to wane through the evening hours with loss
of heating. Little change in the airmass expected overnight with
some lingering clouds overnight. Expect overnight lows in the lower
70s. There is a possibility of some fog/stratus to develop late
tonight with nocturnal cooling but it is uncertain due to the
possibility of higher clouds being present.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will deepen slightly west of the region
on Sunday while a surface boundary becomes aligned nearly
parallel to the flow aloft causing it to stall over the area.
Ample moisture across the area, with precipitable water values
rising to around 2 inches, modest instability and short wave
disturbances passing along the eastern periphery of the upper
trough will result in a fairly wet day. As patchy early morning
fog dissipates, it looks like scattered showers could develop
during the morning hours, earlier than normal given the upper
level support. By afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to
be numerous in coverage. The potential for severe weather is
rather low given the high moisture content in the atmosphere,
but there is a threat for heavy rainfall to result in localized
flooding. High temperatures should be kept in the upper 80s to
around 90 given the expected cloud cover and precipitation.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish in the
evening on Sunday, but given a series of short wave
disturbances passing aloft will maintain isolated to scattered
convection in the forecast through the night. Lows will be
around 70.
Very little change to the overall pattern on Monday as the axis
of the upper level trough shifts slightly eastward over the
area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be a factor once
again, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will
generally be in the upper 80s.
The upper trough will begin to flatten some on Tuesday as a
light southerly flow becomes established at the surface. Expect
a more typical diurnal pattern, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with the
greatest coverage across eastern areas where the greatest
moisture and lift will occur. Temperatures should moderate
closer to normal, with highs in the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will amplify once again over the eastern
United States mid-late week, before shifting east of the area
next weekend. Plenty of moisture and sufficient instability will
result in isolated to scattered diurnal showers through much of
the period. A southerly flow should allow temperatures to be
slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There may be brief restrictions from showers through this
evening with additional restrictions likely early tomorrow
morning at OGB and AGS.
Widely scattered showers will continue through the early
evening. Though limited coverage favors predominantly VFR
conditions there may be brief restrictions from convection.
Convective debris clouds from Georgia will lift over the
forecast area through much of the night, preventing strong
radiational cooling. Though atmospheric moisture is high, mostly
cloudy skies will prevent widespread, dense fog. We still expect
patchy areas of dense fog to develop at fog prone locations
including AGS and OGB mainly from 09Z to 12Z. Elsewhere,
MVFR/IFR visibilities may briefly occur around sunrise. Recent
HRRR output supports a more optimistic overnight outlook, also
suggesting only patchy areas of dense fog.
Convection allowing models suggest higher shower and
thunderstorm coverage Sunday afternoon. Brief periods of
restrictions from convection may occur through the afternoon and
into the evening. Winds will be light and variable through much
of the 24 hr TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PWAT values remain high through
early next week, supporting early morning fog and stratus
concerns with diurnally driven convection. Drier air pushes into
the FA mid-week, lowering the threat of restrictions from
thunderstorms.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
746 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.AVIATION...
Weak cold frontal boundary under axis of modest midlevel moisture
has has allowed surface based thunderstorm activity over sections of
central Lower Michigan and the Saginaw Bay region. Plan view of
moisture progs show that convective activity is highly dependent upon
the midlevel moisture and RAP based mesoanalysis corroborates this
with little to no MLCAPE south of current activity. Dramatic
weakening of activity as it pushes south is no surprise and will
continue with loss of daytime heating. The surface based frontal
boundary and low-midlevel moisture axis will continue to push south
overnight. System relative flow trajectories will veer from the
northwest this evening to the northeast by Sunday morning. This will
effectively clear the moisture and lead to low level anticyclonic
flow and ridging for Sunday. Looked at a few soundings and did not
see anything in the way of fog potential. Will continue to carry a
low end VFR ceiling within the frontal zone. High based diurnal cu
for Southeast Michigan at 6000 ft agl Sunday afternoon.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Sunday
morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM / REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
As of 345 PM EDT...A quiet and pleasant early August day continues
across the region with broad and weak high pressure continuing to
maintain its grip across the lower Great Lakes. The area of high
pressure has allowed for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and a
good deal of insolation, with temperatures warming into the low/mid
80s with comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints largely hold in
the 50s for most areas. High temperatures this afternoon will peak
in the mid 80s for most, with a few upper 80s readings in the
greater Detroit metro.
Latest water vapor imagery continues to depict a southeastward-
progressing upper-level impulse working across north-central Lake
Michigan early this afternoon, helping to boost occasional pockets
of increased cloud cover downstream over Lower Michigan. Further
north, a weak cold front boundary is draped just south of the
Straits, and will continue slowly sagging south towards the Tri-
Cities region heading into the early evening hours, and will allow
the lingering high pressure to wash out. Just enough moisture
continues to pool ahead of this boundary, as evidence by dewpoints
attempting to push into the lower 60s across the Saginaw Valley,
yielding MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Timing of the approach of the
front still looks to interact with the approach of the
aforementioned upper impulse, which has already been evident in
widely scattered convection firing up across northern Lower.
As these two features inch closer to the region, expecting
additional scattered thunderstorm development to occur primarily
over the Saginaw Valley (possibly into portions of the northern
Thumb and south towards the I-69 corridor) 4pm-10pm, with activity
waning quickly with loss of daytime heating. Lack of shear, wind in
the column, steeper midlevel lapse rates, and more substantial
instability will ensure that thunderstorm activity largely behaves
and remains nonsevere. As a result, the primary threats will be
localized brief heavy downpours, occasional CG lightning, and
possible wind gusts up to around 40 mph. While not likely, cannot
completely rule out a rogue pea size hail report as there remains a
fair amount of dry air in the midlevels should an updraft get any
substantial vertical depth to it. Best potential for a storm to be
more on the stronger side will reside across the Saginaw Valley,
where just enough convergence along a modest near-surface theta-e
gradient may provide for consolidation of multicell activity.
After lingering convection dissipates by midnight tonight, some
questions arise as to the remainder of the overnight forecast as the
cold front settles further south across southeast Michigan. Various
sounding and hi-res solutions suggest weak moisture advection ahead
of the front which may result in localized areas of fog. Given
pattern recognition, more likely scenario would be the development
of at least scattered to possibly broken coverage of low clouds
which would hinder more in the way of greater fog coverage. Will
trend the forecast towards a cloudier solution, which will limit low
temperatures from fully radiating and settling in the low 60s/mid
60s Detroit metro.
SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
The cold front will continue its slow push south during the day
Sunday, with daytime heating helping to scour out cloud coverage
especially from north to south on the backside of the front. Still
some questions as to how far south the front gets, with daytime
heating helping to promote isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms to the south of the boundary. Will continue to leave
isolated mention of thunder across areas closer to the Ohio border,
but did expand PoPs a bit further northward towards the M-59
corridor to account for any potential delay in the front
progression. Continued lack of shear and modest instability at best
will limit thunderstorm strength to similar to today`s activity,
featuring brief downpours, gusty winds to around 40 mph, and rogue
pea size hail. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Sunday
as light north/northeast flow becomes established behind the front,
but still look to reach into the lower 80s for most with continued
high early August sun angle.
Weak surface ridging then builds into the region beginning Sunday
night, as any lingering thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly
focused just south of the Ohio border. The surface ridging will
allow for clearing skies and slightly better radiational cooling
conditions, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s,
coldest across the Thumb and portions of the glacial ridge.
Monday will likely feature a dry day with gradually increasing cloud
cover from northwest to southeast as prevailing upper-level
northwest flow gains more of a zonal component in response to
midlevel energy moving towards the northern Great Lakes. Attendant
cold front will then begin to push southeastward into Lower Michigan
Monday night, providing a better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms with better forcing to work with. Current nocturnal
timing of activity would tend to limit the severe threat, but will
need to keep a close eye on activity developing across northern
Lower and Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and if it can generate any
substantial cold pool as it approaches southeast Michigan. Lows
Monday night in the mid 60s as low-level moisture advection
increases ahead of the front.
LONG TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Shower/storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the extended
period Tuesday morning with elevated dewpoints /mid to upper 60s/ and
a cold front oriented from the Saginaw Bay area into southern Lake
Michigan. Using surface pressure advection as a frontal zone proxy
/in lieu of a defined wind shift or moisture gradient/, the frontal
translation appears quite slow on Tuesday leading to an extended
period of possible precip. NAM/ECMWF are the wettest solutions, but
QPF decreases further south and east hinting at less precip for the
Metro area. Instability will be highest near the MI/OH border with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE for the afternoon, decreasing to less than
1000 J/kg closer to the Tri-Cities along a narrow band of 0-3 km max
ThetaE values approaching 350 K. Limiting factors right now are the
low shear values /bulk 20 kts/ and sub- conditional instability aloft
/850-500 mb LRs barely 6 C/km/. Additionally, forecast sounding do
still appeared somewhat capped at this time. Nevertheless, the front
should clear out of the CWA shortly after 00Z with trailing weak NW
flow providing slight relief from the elevated humidity. Have also
kept gusts AOB 20 mph for the Tuesday afternoon. Highs are somewhat
unchanged, remaining a few degrees above climatological norms.
Wednesday will maintain some degree of persistence with regard to
temps and wind, but drier advection will knock down humidity levels
a tad, especially further west. A second slow moving cold front
should cross on Thursday which will bring another segment of
unsettled weather. Still a bit far out to parse out timing
specifics, but pretty confident that an airmass change will take
place by Friday morning as high pressure builds in to the northwest
with dry and cool Canadian air filling into much of Michigan. This
high influencing the Great Lakes will linger through much of next
weekend with temps falling back in line with seasonal averages
/highs in the mid 70s to low 80s/ and more comfortable dewpoints
/back down into the 50s/.
MARINE...
A weak cold front moves through the remainder of Lake Huron late
today and tonight and dissipates in favor of renewed high pressure
during Sunday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occur
along and ahead of the front, mainly near shoreline areas this
afternoon and which dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. A light but uniformly NE surface wind follows the front
across Lake Huron and Lower Michigan marine areas overnight through
Sunday before high pressure builds again over the region and holds
through Sunday night. The wind turns SW during Monday maintaining
warm air with increasing humidity and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the next front. This front arrives from
central Canada and moves through the central Great Lakes Tuesday. It
brings a light W to NW wind shift ahead of weak high pressure for
the mid week period.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...IRL/KK
MARINE.......BT
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
328 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Moist and relatively unstable air will flow into southern New
Mexico and west Texas this weekend and most of next week. As a
result thunderstorms will be affecting much of the region over the
next seven days, though areas west of the Rio Grande will have the
higher coverage of thunderstorms. A few storms may produce heavy
rainfall with possible flash flooding. Temperatures will remain
near normal in the higher elevations to slightly above normal in
the lowland deserts through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level ridge, with a rather ill-defined center at
500 mb remains over New Mexico, with plenty of trapped/recycled
mid-level moisture in place across the region. Light/variable
steering flow has resulted in slow-moving thunderstorms over the
higher terrain, and we`re starting to see some build-ups and
isolated showers over some of the desert mountains recently.
Surface obs show most of the central lowlands have dewpoints that
have mixed out into the upper-40s. RAP analysis shows limited
instability with MLCAPE values around 250-400 J/Kg around ELP, but
CIN is weak. Stronger instability is in place over SW New Mexico,
where surface dewpoints remain in the mid and upper-50s, and this
area will remain the most favored for thunderstorm coverage
heading into the evening as outflow from storms over the Gila
pushes south. Despite the weaker instability over S/C New Mexico
and Far West Texas, outflow boundaries will likely modify the
low-levels enough for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
this evening.
With the slow storm motion, locally heavy rainfall will remain the
primary threat with this evening`s thunderstorms, though some
small hail is possible in the higher terrain.
For tomorrow, the pattern looks much the same as today, but with
the subtropical ridge shifting slightly to the west, and northerly
flow aloft prevailing. This will help thunderstorms better
penetrate into the lowland deserts in the afternoon and evening.
Also, a slight push of low level moisture from the east will
improve low level moisture during the afternoon, keeping dewpoints
in the 50s area-wide.
Heading into next week, the pattern remains remarkably similar
day-to-day, with good agreement among GFS/ECMWF and ensembles. All
suggest keeping the broad upper ridge over New Mexico or nearby
eastern Arizona, and generally N to NE mid-level flow over the
area. This will focus monsoonal moisture to our west, but with
recycled moisture in the mid-levels trapped under the ridge, but
favoring areas near and west of the Rio Grande. This keeps the
risk of thunderstorms in the forecast, but likely with "low-end"
monsoon conditions for the Rio Grande Valley and points east. The
Gila will continue to be most favored for rainfall.
With the ridge overhead, we`ll likely keep temperatures in the
upper-90s to lower-100s.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 04/00Z-05/00Z...
In general, VFR conditions with FEW-SCT080-100. Storms expected
to move off mountains and spread to the lowlands, causing periods
of MVFR to IFR with vis 1-3SM BKN030- 050. Best thunderstorm
coverage over lowlands and area terminals looks to be along and
west of Rio Grande. Storms may continue into the early morning
hours. Another round of storms similar to today expected after
18Z. Winds generally light out of the NW to NE through overnight
before becoming more southeast to northeast after 12Z but gusts
over 40 knots possible near thunderstorms and with outflow
boundaries.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high will remain in place near the AZ/NM border region for
the next several days before slowly shifting eastward. This will
continue to keep monsoon moisture moving up through Arizona and
wrapping around into the area. This will keep a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms going across the entire area with best
chances remaining over mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with minimum
relative humidities around 20 percent and higher. Winds with upper
high in place will remain light except near thunderstorms. Vent
rates of fair to good continue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 76 98 75 97 / 30 30 30 10
Sierra Blanca 70 95 68 94 / 10 20 20 20
Las Cruces 70 95 70 95 / 30 30 30 20
Alamogordo 70 94 70 93 / 30 50 30 20
Cloudcroft 53 71 53 72 / 30 70 40 40
Truth or Consequences 71 92 71 93 / 40 40 40 30
Silver City 64 88 64 88 / 40 50 40 40
Deming 70 96 70 95 / 40 20 40 20
Lordsburg 70 97 71 96 / 50 20 40 20
West El Paso Metro 77 97 76 96 / 30 30 30 10
Dell City 74 96 71 95 / 10 30 10 20
Fort Hancock 77 99 75 98 / 10 20 30 20
Loma Linda 73 92 71 91 / 20 30 30 20
Fabens 77 99 76 97 / 20 30 30 10
Santa Teresa 73 96 73 96 / 30 30 30 10
White Sands HQ 74 95 74 94 / 30 40 30 20
Jornada Range 70 95 70 93 / 30 40 30 20
Hatch 70 95 70 95 / 40 30 30 20
Columbus 74 98 74 96 / 40 20 40 20
Orogrande 72 95 71 94 / 20 30 30 20
Mayhill 58 78 58 80 / 30 70 30 40
Mescalero 57 80 56 81 / 30 70 30 40
Timberon 56 79 56 79 / 30 60 30 30
Winston 58 85 58 85 / 40 60 40 40
Hillsboro 66 91 66 91 / 40 50 40 40
Spaceport 67 93 68 93 / 40 40 30 20
Lake Roberts 57 86 57 86 / 40 60 40 50
Hurley 63 90 63 89 / 40 50 40 30
Cliff 61 94 62 93 / 40 50 40 40
Mule Creek 66 91 66 91 / 50 50 40 40
Faywood 66 89 66 89 / 40 50 40 40
Animas 69 98 69 97 / 50 20 40 20
Hachita 67 96 68 95 / 50 20 40 20
Antelope Wells 68 95 69 93 / 50 20 40 20
Cloverdale 66 92 66 90 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 407 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Moisture has returned rather quickly over the past 12 hours or so
with water vapor imagery showing a deep plume working north and
east across the southwest U.S. GOES Sounder data estimating
precipitable water values in the Four Corners region has climbed
back above an inch with sharp gradient of drying as we work across
the northern zones (under three quarters of an inch). Steep lapse
rates with strong surface heating has led to a few stronger
storms. Storm motion will remain slow with training echoes
leading to heavier rainfall amounts raising the potential for
localized flooding. Have ramped gridded pops up across the entire
forecast area with some nocturnal activity anticipated overnight,
in-line with the current HRRR runs. After sunset, the mountain
hugging convection should show some drift into the valleys.
Showers and storms will wind late tonight, before re-firing around
midday on Sunday. Forecast PWAT`s on Sunday will climb into the
1.25 to 1.50" range and heavy rain should occur with most storms.
With deeper moisture in place, temps will be down a few degrees
off of today`s hot temps. Showers linger through Sunday evening
ahead of the ridge shifting westward and introducing drier
conditions late Sunday night and Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019
As the ridge shifts westward on Monday, drier conditions will move
back in along with climbing temps. Isolated, diurnally driven
mountain storms will still be in the picture Monday and Tuesday.
By Wednesday, the doors open back up again for another deep push
of monsoonal moisture lifting across Arizona and across the Four
Corners. Not quite as confident in categorical pops out in the day
5 through 7 timeframe that some blends are showing, so have
trimmed those back a bit, but convection still looks likely.
Should be an above normal precipitation week across much of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be running near to slightly above
seasonal norms for much of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Isolated to scattered storms will occur through 03Z this evening,
mainly over the higher terrain. Conditions will mainly be VFR for
most TAF sites, with brief MVFR possible in passing thunderstorms
with gusty outflow winds to 40 kts. There is a chance for additional
storm development overnight, but confidence in this is low. Storms
are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon and last through the
early evening similar to today.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...KJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
827 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
High pressure will continue to bring hot and mostly dry weather
to the region through the remainder of the weekend. A cold front
will move into Illinois Monday night and Tuesday bringing our next
chance of significant rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
No significant changes to grids expected this evening.
Quiet night shaping up as high pressure at the surface and
diffluence aloft continue to keep central and southeast Illinois
dry this evening. A northern stream wave produced some convection
to our north this afternoon and early evening and produced an
outflow boundary that we will need to monitor to see if it gets
close enough to the area to impact our weather Sunday. Although it
has slowed, it will likely get reinforced from outflow from storms
currently dropping south through southern Wisconsin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Broad high pressure dominates the region on the surface map this
afternoon, albeit weak. Not much in the way of weather makers,
and the forecast remains relatively quiet through the end of the
weekend. Aloft, 500 mb ridging continues to dominate the desert
SW, leaving Illinois in the resulting northwesterly flow. The
flow aloft weakens on the eastern side of the Mississippi River,
dropping into a weak troughing over the eastern half of the
country. This pattern sets up a series of waves passing both to
the north and the south in most of the models...but leaving the
forecast largely dry through the short term. Tonight, winds weaken
in the overnight as the inversion sets up, becoming more
northeasterly going into tomorrow. The few cumulus in the
southwest will dissipate towards sunset, but a few cirrus will
remain into the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees
warmer, but precip chances are creeping closer to the N/NE into
the afternoon as that weak boundary sags into the region.
NAM/ECMWF both dry, GFS is expectedly producing qpf to the north,
and edging into ILX CWA. The 18Z HRRR has trended to that same
solution and will likely end up seeing at least some
isolated/scattered mention NE of I-74 if the trend maintains.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Better chances for precip actually start on Monday evening as a
front sags into the region...with its low moving eastward just
north of the Can border. GFS, in line with recent trends, is a
little aggressive with precip development ahead of the system.
ECMWF and the NAM are a little drier until after midnight. This
sets up a period of showers and thunderstorms for the first few
days of the work week. Overall trend had been to slow down the
system in the GFS... but this run has the ECMWF joining in a
slower resolution of the precip for Wed morning. Either way, the
blended guidance is only pushing pops through Tuesday night and
tapering off until the end of the week. There may be a break for
Wed afternoon/evening, but chances come into the forecast again
for Thursday as another system settles into the FA. Both the GFS
and ECMWF are hinting at another round of predominantly split
waves, avoiding Central IL for the most part.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
A ridge of surface high pressure reamins entrenched over the area
bringing light winds and only scattered diurnal cumulus. Current
thunderstorm cluster in the Chicago metro will need to be watched
for the potential to push an outflow boundary into the I-74
corridor tonight. The remant may provide enough convergence
Sunday to produce some limited ceilings and possibly isolated
convection, particularly in the vicinity of KBMI and KCMI. Will
leave out for now and just bring in scattered cumulus to those
sights, but later shifts will need to monitor for the potential.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SYNOPSIS...Barker
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1144 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Dry weather is expected again tonight as High pressure over the
Great Lakes remains the dominate weather feature. Mainly dry and
warm weather is anticipated on Sunday and Monday...but an isolated
shower or storm cannot be ruled out.
An upper level weather disturbance will arrive in the Ohio valley
on early Tuesday morning...bring better chances for more organized
showers or storms for Tuesday. Lesser chances for rain are then
expected daily from Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
across Michigan...with continued cool NE flow in place across
Central Indiana. Dew points across the area were in the
comfortable middle 50s and GOES16 shows only a few high CI
passing across Central Indiana within the flow aloft. Water vapor
imagery continues to show strong ridging in place across the
western United States...with NW flow and lee side subsidence
spilling across the Upper midwest and Ohio Valley.
Little change is once again expected tonight as the models
continue to suggest the High pressure system to the north will
move very little and continued NW flow and subsidence is expected
across the area. Thus we will trend toward the persistence type
forecast of skies becoming mostly clear and similar low
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern through
Monday Night. Aloft...the models continue to keep strong ridging
in place across the wester United States through the period. This
results in continued NW flow aloft for Indiana and the Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure also remains in place across the
Great Lakes. Thus we have a continuation of the familiar pattern
of the past week. However on Sunday and Monday
afternoons...forecast soundings are showing a change. Lapse rates
appear favorable for some diurnal convection with attainable
convective temperatures and some CAPE present on each afternoon.
Best CAPE at this time appears on Monday. HRRR shows some widely
isolated convection developing on Sunday. Thus, although most
areas show be dry...and isolated afternoon or evening showers or
storm cannot be ruled out on Sunday and Monday
afternoons/evenings. Will keep some low chance pops in for now. As
for temps will continue to trend toward persistence.
On late monday night into Tuesday...the GFS indicates a more
organized short wave arriving across Indiana in the morning
before exiting on Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings hint at a
nearly saturated column at that time. Meanwhile within the lower
levels a surface trough is indicated to be passing across the
state. With these favorable ingredients of precip...will trend
pops higher on Tuesday morning as the best forcing passes. Given
the expect precip will trend monday high lows warmer and Tuesday
highs cooler than the NBM where opportunities arise.
&&
.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
The long term starts with chances for thunderstorms over central
Indiana as an upper wave moves through the area Tuesday night.
Small chances remain into Wednesday as a surface front moves
slowly southeast. Wednesday night currently looks dry, but by
Thursday there is enough variability in timing of upper waves
moving through northwest upper flow that most of the rest of the
period includes slight chance to low chances for thunderstorms
with no discernible period of either confidence in dry conditions
or in rain. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
long term. Confidence in Pops through the long term is average at
best, with better confidence in near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 04/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with high pressure over the region. Meanhwile, winds will
generally be northeasterly and light.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
953 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The last of today`s convection was noted dissipating over Grenada
and Simpson counties. Regional radars showed a few storms dropping
south over northeast Mississippi that a few hi-res models
suggested would drop into our CWA prior to sunrise but, the
latest HRRR doesn`t redevelop any convection until after sunrise
so have removed pops the remainder of the night. Patchy early
morning fog will be possible across our southeast again but dense
fog development is not anticipated. Morning lows were still on
track. /22/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Sunday: Despite the proximity of a cold core low over
south AL this afternoon, weak mid level shortwave ridging has
suppressed convection to a large extent so far. Deeper moisture is
evident in WV and Vis imagery near the MS river and radars are
showing some activity in this area. Do think we will see more
convection in other areas still late this afternoon into the
evening as cumulus field becomes increasingly congested.
Deeper moisture looks to spread back across the area Sunday as PWs
approach 2 inches in advance of a weak shortwave dropping into the
base of broad mid level trough. Depth of moisture will help limit
overall instability with lapse rate slightly greater than moist
adiabatic resulting in relatively skinny CAPEs./GG/
Monday through next Saturday: The theme of scattered daily
convection will remain through the end of the forecast period. An
upper ridge will persist over the western/central CONUS, with an
upper trough extending from the northeast through the Atlantic
coast. With considerable deep layer moisture remaining over the area
and mainly subtle mid level disturbances traversing the ridge/trough
interface, scattered mainly diurnal convection will remain in the
forecast.
Over the middle to latter portion of the week, the upper ridge will
build eastward, leading to an increasing trend in temps in our area.
Heat indices may begin to push into the triple digits, with heat
stress becoming more of a concern by the end of the week. There is
some potential the ridge will build far enough eastward to begin to
curtail rain chances and elevate heat concerns more. However, there
remains enough model disagreement at this point as to exactly where
the track of upper disturbances in NW flow will become established,
and it is still a bit too early to begin mentioning such a threat in
the HWO/graphics. Nevertheless, this will be something we continue
to monitor over the next few days. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Scattered TSRA were affecting GTR at 2330Z and wl move west of GTR
during the next hour. Elsewhere vcty TSRA may affect TAF sites
through 01Z but wl dissipate by 02Z. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail tonight away from TSRA until until 11Z when MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys wl be possible through 13Z in east and se MS. VFR
conditions wl prevail Sunday but isolated to scattered TSRA
development may again affect TAF sites. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 71 91 71 89 / 7 55 32 50
Meridian 71 92 71 90 / 7 60 38 57
Vicksburg 72 92 73 90 / 9 49 28 35
Hattiesburg 70 91 71 89 / 8 62 34 64
Natchez 71 90 72 88 / 11 45 31 47
Greenville 72 91 71 89 / 11 44 16 15
Greenwood 72 90 71 89 / 15 59 24 26
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
DL/22/26
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
631 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...
255 PM CDT
Through Sunday night...
Still monitoring for scattered thunderstorms to enter far northern
Illinois late today/early this evening, and likely in a decaying
phase. There also is a chance of a couple inland showers or
storms on Sunday afternoon.
The subtle surface trough in surface analysis continues draped
across southern Wisconsin with a very slowly southward
progression. This has served as a focus for a layering of moisture
with dew points in the mid 60s and mixed layer CAPE values over
1000 J/kg. Scattered convection has been slowly progressing
southward, with a slight south-southwestward motion noted in
recent KMKX radar trends. A steep low-level lapse rate regime
has favored outflows, though these too are not that progressive,
but enough to promote new cell growth to the south/southwest and
expect this behavior to continue through the state-line area
through 6 pm. The propagation will drive the cell movement more
than ambient flow but even that will be gradual.
Across northern Illinois, mid to upper 80s with some lowering of
dew points under a mainly cloud-free sky has shown the atmosphere
is pretty well-mixed. The gradient in the cumulus field across the
northern tier of Illinois counties, as well as objective analysis
of instability, shows that storms should be on a weakening trend
as they enter northern Illinois. Some festering/percolating of
cells may continue through mid to late evening in the Rockford
region, but in general a downward trend will be seen after 8 pm. A
few wind gusts over 30 mph are possible with downdraft CAPE in
excess of 800 J/kg across the northern tier of counties as
analyzed on modified RAP soundings to observations. With lake-
modified air inching its way westward over Cook County, we are not
expecting convective activity to impact the city of Chicago
itself.
With a very light wind field into the overnight and some increase
in dew points, there is a little potential for fog. This is
probably more so in any locations that do receive rain in far
northern Illinois.
The weakening surface boundary, with pressures only around 1016
mb, will be draped across the CWA on Sunday. Confluence along this
looks quite minimal. While that was the case today in Wisconsin
where scattered convection occurred, there was some help from the
mid-levels with a short wave moving overhead. So on Sunday with
very little to no upper forcing, would expect any coverage to be
extremely isolated, and probably focused more inland away from the
lake shadow of cooler/less unstable air.
Highs on Sunday look to be near what they were today under a
little more cumulus. The lake breeze, or at least the flop of
winds to the northeast, should be a little stronger than today.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
Monday through Saturday...
Southwesterly to westerly low-level flow will advance over the
area on Monday in response to a northern stream low moving from
Ontario into Quebec. This will steer the thermal ridge into the
area and likely result in highs right up to 90. The lake breeze is
also likely only to hug the shore if that. The system cold front
still looks to swing through the area Tuesday during the day.
Convective development to the northwest on Monday afternoon may
move into the area Monday night and of these there could be a few
stronger storms at least close to the CWA. The emphasis though in
thunderstorm chances still looks to be Tuesday and maybe more so
the central/southern CWA as it lines up better with peak heating.
Still far enough away and variance in guidance for timing of the
front to shift notably.
Beyond, drier air from the north looks to filter in and provide
quieter weather for at least Wednesday. A second cold front is
currently forecast around Thursday.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Convection which originated across southeastern Wisconsin earlier
this afternoon continues to disintegrate as it encounters a drier
low-level airmass across northeast Illinois. KRFD stands the
highest chance of nearby TS and showers, and even these chances
are diminishing. We`re also watching another area of convection
that`s sliding southward of out central Wisconsin. With the loss
of daytime heating and already limited instability ahead of this
complex, a gradual weakening trend to this second area of showers
and storms is anticipated through mid-late evening.
Winds will become light (less than 4 kts) and variable this
evening and overnight as high pressure moves in overhead. While
there is a non-zero fog potential tonight, the current thinking is
that the combination of convective cloud debris from the north and
the extremely shallow nature of the near-surface moist layer
should work against widespread fog formation. RFD has the highest
chances of BR tonight, but the chances appear too low to mention
elsewhere.
A lake breeze will push inland late Sunday morning with a renewed
thrust of ENE to NE winds. Moisture will be a bit higher by Sunday
afternoon, so expect a more developed Cu field with daytime
mixing. While isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in the destabilizing airmass, chances are too low to warrant VCSH
or VCTS mentions at this juncture. The lake breeze could serve as
a focusing mechanism for storms, but the late-morning/early-
afternoon push through ORD/MDW should help keep the more notable
convective chances off to the west.
Carlaw
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region early on Sunday. The
front will then stall just south of the region through Sunday night
before slowly returning north as a warm front into Monday as
high pressure builds from the west and quickly moves offshore.
A slow moving frontal system then impacts the region for the
mid week, before high pressure returns for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quite a bit of convective activity earlier this evening, but
coverage and intensity should diminish as the night progresses.
The cold front behind the pre-frontal trough moves through
overnight across interior sections, and should get into and just
through the city by about 9z. Much of the guidance then has the
boundary clearing far eastern sections towards and just after
12z with dew points beginning to decrease across northern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front that moves across Sunday will settle across the
southern portion of the coastal waters, just south of the
region throughout the day. Instability values do come down
primarily across the board, although the HRRR does keep some
CAPE leftover across far southern and southeastern parts of the
CWA. The MET and MAV guidance is adamant about it remaining dry
with low POPs, but there are some higher res guidance suggesting
some precip activity at various times throughout the day.
Therefore, thought it prudent to go with a slight chance POPs
across the entire area as the front does not sufficiently clear
the entire region out from the previous air mass and there may
be enough with spokes of energy with the northern branch in the
mid levels to trigger some showers. The best chance may be for
the late morning and early afternoon, but thought it best not
to get overly detailed as far as timing of any precip chances
for Sunday. Weak high pressure out of the Great Lakes should
begin to build in enough to keep things completely dry for
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will lead to a somewhat
more discernible drop in dew points / humidity levels by Monday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large scale blocking pattern with dominant high pressure over the
Southwestern U.S. and the Bermuda high will place our region in a
more unsettled period with a series of upper troughs and smaller
scale short waves moving through. At the surface, a nearly stalled
frontal boundary will quickly return north as a warm front on Monday
as high pressure shifts offshore. Chances of precipitation will be the
lowest Monday, with subsidence aloft and drier air overcoming any
lift from the front.
By Monday night into Tuesday, flow aloft becomes more west-
southwesterly as upper troughs begin to phase. As a result, moisture
begins to increase, with PWATs approaching two inches by Thursday.
There has been some consistent consensus for the best chance of any
rain and/or thunderstorms to be Wednesday and Thursday. Trended more
towards the Canadian/Euro as the GFS appears to wet in the extended.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing of smaller scale waves
that will move through, which lowers confidence on timing of any
potentially heavier periods of showers and thunderstorms, though it
is likely that most will be diurnally driven. The system then
finally begins to progress east of the area into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pre frontal trough will be remain over southern New England to
southeastern Pennsylvania this evening and early tonight, as a cold
front slowly approaches, and moves through early Sunday morning.
Lingering convection will slowly dissipate overnight.
VFR outside of any thunderstorm or patchy fog overnight, and
through then day Sunday.
Winds remain light overnight, and shift to light north by
Sunday morning. Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the N/NW as the
morning progresses, with some sea breeze development possible
during the afternoon for CT terminals, KJFK and KISP.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible late in showers and
thunderstorms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible in scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient through early next week will lead to
sub-SCA winds and seas. South-southwest flow then becomes more
persistent into the mid week as a frontal system slowly
approaches the waters, allowing ocean seas to build due to the
increasing swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Some localized flooding for urban and poor drainage areas is
possible in associated with any thunderstorms this evening.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall may be possible with
thunderstorms that develop on Wednesday and Thursday, which may
result in localized flooding for urban and poor drainage areas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some of the western south shore back bay locations will approach
minor coastal flood benchmarks for the high tide cycles for this
evening, and should fall just short of coastal flood benchmarks for
Sunday evening. A coastal flood statement remains in effect for
the Western south shore back bays for this evening. No
statements for Sunday evening are planned at this time.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/PW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MD/JE
HYDROLOGY...MD/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
910 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stay situated south of our area into
early next week. Another front drops southward toward the region
by midweek, clearing the area by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...
Widely scattered slow moving showers and storms continue to form
along the Blue Ridge where supported by a swath of lingering
1000 J/kg Cape values along with weak moisture convergence.
However most of this below capping aloft off evening soundings
making for more of a heavy rain than severe threat for now.
Latest HRRR shifts this broken axis of showers slowly
east/southeast over the next couple of hours before fading
around midnight given loss of heating. Thus arranged low pops
along/west of the Blue Ridge a few more hours prior to trending
over to more fog development as skies clear some overnight.
Elsewhere should remain dry with fog a bit more patchy than last
night after seeing more drying and less convection this
afternoon. Left lows similar to previous with most only dipping
into the 60s west and perhaps staying near 70 in spots across
the east.
Previous discussion as of 150 PM EDT Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms firing up along the Blue Ridge and
adjacent areas early this afternoon, due to differential heating
where we had low clouds earlier and a weak low level easterly flow.
The high-res models are favoring a scattering pattern of
showers/thunderstorms through the afternoon along and either side if
the Blue Ridge into the Alleghanys. Showers will fade toward
midnight, with residual cloudiness linger into the overnight.
Appears fog/low clouds may again form late tonight and then lift by
mid to late morning Sunday into the next cumulus field.
500 mb heights fall slightly Sunday with another shortwave moving
across. Still looks like drying may limit showers/storms across
Southeast WV as surface trough nudges east of the mountains.
Sampling of models suggest better coverage to occur along/south of
the NC/VA border and closer toward the front at the coast of NC/SC.
Will keep slight to low chance pops in the north to 40-50 south of
the VA border.
Temps will run close to normal with lows tonight in the lower to mid
60s mountains, to upper 60s around 70 east.
Sunday, the RH may sink a little in the mountains as somewhat drier
arrives. Highs to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains, to upper 80s east.
Confidence is high on temps and winds, and average on sky cover and
storm coverage through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...
Broad longwave trough at 500 mb positioned near or west of the
Blacksburg forecast area - a feature that has generally stayed with
us over the last few days - will continue to be the main driver of
sensible weather. Weak vort maxima/shortwaves in prevailing
northwest flow over the upper Midwest/northern Plains will serve to
reinforce this trough. Essentially the period is a modified
persistence weather pattern to that of recent days, with the
proximity of the longwave trough keeping the weather pattern
unsettled. While not entirely a washout, should have daily
thunderstorm chances, though with less upper level support Tuesday
may feature less storm coverage than Monday. Storm coverage should
follow typical diurnal frequency and strength tendencies; greatest
during the afternoon-early evening, then weakening/dissipating
shortly after sunset.
First shortwave trough over the mid-MS Valley will interact with a
filling closed low now over the northern Gulf states overnight
Sunday into Monday. Sufficient daytime heating on Monday, yielding
progged CAPEs for a most-unstable parcel between 1000-1500 J/kg,
should foster scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage especially
near and east of the Blue Ridge, with isolated to widely scattered
west of I-81. A small subset of those storms could pulse to strong
to severe levels producing localized gusty winds, with hail a
secondary possibility given anvil-level winds around 40-50 kts and
lapse rates in mid-levels close to moist-adiabatic levels. Localized
flooding could be possible as well, but it would take storms forming
over the same areas and/or over areas which have seen flooding in
prior days. Less shower/storm coverage appears likely toward
midnight.
For Tuesday, the two aforementioned phasing shortwaves shift to our
east, leaving our area in weak/relative shortwave ridging aloft
embedded in the broader longwave trough. Though the 12z GFS
indicates thunderstorm coverage toward scattered to numerous, both
the ECMWF and the NAM show little to no showers or storms. Forecast
will side closer to the NAM/ECMWF camp based on shortwave ridging
aloft and westerly flow in low-levels, but will still carry isolated
to widely scattered (PoPs 15-30%) areawide, highest in the Blue
Ridge. It may take until later in the day before areas west of I-81
see showers or storms. Tuesday night should see clearing in eastern
locales while clouds begin to increase in the west ahead of the next
shortwave trough aloft that looks to mainly affect our area
Wednesday.
Temps on the whole are near early-August climatology to a couple
degrees; highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low-mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...
Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into the end of the
upcoming workweek. Model disagreement in the large-scale pattern
leads to reduced predictability into next weekend.
In terms of more active weather days, model guidance shows some
consensus that Wednesday and Friday each should be on the more
active side. Surface cold fronts combine with stronger shortwave
energy in the northwest flow to encourage relatively high PoPs for
each day. At least on Wednesday, effective bulk shear values improve
to around 30-35 kts and most-unstable parcel CAPEs range from 1000-
2000 J/kg, which is on the higher end of a shear-instability
parameter space for a typical summer day. Thursday offers less storm
chances between both shortwave troughs.
Into the weekend, there`s more uncertainty in the large-scale
pattern and this seems to be due to differences in handling an
active northern stream across the U.S./Canadian border into Canada.
GFS actually shows the broad upper-level trough plaguing our area
weakening by the weekend to more of a zonal/weak ridge flow regime
across most of CONUS, with rising temperatures. On the other hand
the ECMWF builds a pronounced closed upper low over Quebec with
troughing extending into the Carolinas. This solution would also
usher in a shot of drier and somewhat cooler more stable air. Will
take a model blend approach to minimize errors for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Saturday...
Still looking at mainly VFR into the evening with widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms making for brief periods of
MVFR/IFR through shortly past sunset. However this likely
without direct impact to specific terminals so will amend when
needed at this point. Also uncertain to the degree of thunder
given shallow nature to ongoing showers so will only include
tsra in spots pending release coverage.
Fog appears likely again overnight even given some passing mid
and high clouds around at times. Latest guidance still showing
decent coverage of sub-VFR including IFR/LIFR or worse at
KBCB/KLWB with MVFR elsewhere late except KROA. Thus beefed up
coverage a bit more while expanding reduced vsbys by daybreak.
Fog and low clouds will again burn off by 14z/10AM Sunday giving
way to mainly VFR under scattered/broken cumulus. Will again see
some widely scattered convection develop during the afternoon
but mostly over southern sections. Since confidence again low on
coverage, will not include any vicinity mention at any locations
for Sunday afternoon.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR
ceilings can be expected Monday under a passing upper
disturbance with coverage becoming less by Tuesday in its wake.
This pattern will also result in MVFR or lower clouds and MVFR
fog due to moist low levels, especially at night. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop again Wednesday ahead of the next cold
front before seeing more in the way of VFR Thursday as this
boundary stalls out just north of the area.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...JH/WP