Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/30/19

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
854 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Outflow from today`s severe thunderstorm out over far eastern plains continues to push west this evening, causing the need to adjust wind forecasts, especially for the airports. Otherwise, convection continues to sink south and out of the area. The one exception may be an area of thunderstorms in Nebraska which are slightly heading south. Earlier model runs had this activity pushing into our northeast corner near midnight, which is what the previous forecast had. However monitoring the strength and motion of the storms as well as recent model runs convinced me to take the slight chance out of the far northeast corner. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Storms have initiated this afternoon over the southern foothills and Palmer Divide as well as near a dryline that extends from roughly Flagler to Sterling. Storms don`t seem to be having much of a problem extending above the mid level inversion. With mixed- layer CAPEs near 2000 j/kg and deep layer shear between 40-45 knots, storms will likely become strong to severe east of a line from Larkspur to Sterling. The coverage of severe storms will likely not be widespread enough to warrant a watch but a few large hail and damaging wind gust reports will be likely. The combination of outflow from storms over the Palmer Divide and lee cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado will generate moderate southerly winds over the urban corridor and plains tonight. This will keep low temperatures a few degrees above normal. There remains some uncertainly with regards to low level moisture over the plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Models differ in the strength of a northerly push from a complex of storms over Wyoming and Nebraska. For example, the NAM has dew points in the low 50s at DIA Tuesday afternoon while the HRRR mixes dew points out to the low 30s. If more moisture stays in place tomorrow, there will be scattered storms that develop over the mountains and push eastward throughout the afternoon and evening. If the moisture mixes out, there will be lower coverage of storms and the storms will produce less rainfall and gustier winds. I leaned the forecast more towards the wetter solution by increasing the POPs but held them in the 20 to 30 percent range on the plains. Highs will reach 90+ degrees in Denver again and may reach the upper 90s if the moisture mixes out. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 An upper level low is forecast to remain in place over the northern Pacific coast Tuesday through Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will be centered over northeastern New Mexico on Tuesday evening which will lead to predominately clockwise flow. Tuesday evening, isolated to scattered convection will continue to spread off the higher terrain onto the eastern plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the area. Wednesday and Thursday the upper level ridge will lessen its hold on the high plains as is begins to move east. This will allow for higher monsoonal moisture to move onto the northeast plains. Models show precipitable water (PW) amounts will range from 0.9 to 1.6 inches across the plains by Thursday evening. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in this period with the biggest threat being heavy rainfall. There will be the possibility of 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall in 30 minutes from stronger storms. Friday through the weekend an upper level ridge will retrograde back to the west bringing slight warming to the forecast area. There will still be a chance for afternoon and evening convection with plenty of moisture and instability present. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Strong southerly winds across the terminals this evening will get a little push from the southeast, as outflow from thunderstorms further east push into the terminal areas. This will likely just affect DEN, but could affect APA and BJC, but believe the strong southerlies should slow the SE push down before it gets to the latter two. Then the southerlies will continue through most of the night tonight. Winds turn northerly during the late morning tomorrow and then easterly by the afternoon. Showers and storms may produce gusty outflow winds tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Kriederman SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
830 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Quick grid update mainly for fire weather. The Red Flag Warning for this evening has expired as fire weather conditions have calmed down. Humidities will start to recover later tonight in the 40 to 50% range before decreasing again tomorrow mid morning. Went ahead and issued the Red Flag Warning upgrade from the Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow. Winds look a little bit stronger based on the latest runs from the HRRR and NBM. The widespread red flag conditions in zone 304 today should verify easily for tomorrow. For the rest of tonight, cooler temperatures with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected along with some high clouds. Westerly flow aloft will help dry things out a bit tomorrow with just isolated thunderstorm activity possible east of the laramie range in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Some convection firing over eastern Converse county attm and expect this activity to increase a bit more the rest of the afternoon as it moves eastward. A few strong storms possible with strong wind gusts looking the main threat. This in response to a weak impulse riding over the top of the 4 corners upper high. Activity should move across mainly the northern Neb Panhandle into this evening with otherwise quiet weather expected elsewhere the rest of the night. Similar setup on Tuesday but the upper high looks to strengthen a bit over the area with convection looking more confined to the mtns near the Colorado border Tuesday afternoon as some warming at mid levels hinder development. Temperatures remaining quite warm across the CWA Tuesday with maxs in the mid 80s to mid 90s outside of the mtns. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Monsoonal moisture should begin returning more in earnest Weds and persist through the weekend as the upper high meanders around the 4 corners area. This will bring back pretty much daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and tstms to the CWA, currently looking most widespread on Thursday and Friday as a push of cooler air moves down the high plains. Temps rebound a bit over the weekend but remaining close to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Most terminals will remain VFR today and tonight as a strong are of high pressure settles in to the west. Low level moisture and thunderstorms will push east later tonight with only a very low chance of IFR conditions mainly across the panhandle. SCT to BKN high level clouds will develop tomorrow keeping conditions VFR at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Critical or near-critical Fire Weather conditions will continue over mainly southwest Carbon county into this evening, and likely develop again Tuesday afternoon due to gusty winds and dry air. Moisture will then increase over the region Wednesday with showers and storms becoming more likely Wednesday and especially Thursday, with cooler temperatures also helping to alleviate concerns then. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ304. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AL SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...AL FIRE WEATHER...RE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1033 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front moving into Lower Michigan early this afternoon. A secondary cold front is making its way over northwest WI along with an area of strato-cu, enhanced by steepening low level lapse rates and thermal troughing. A few light showers have developed across the northwoods, which could persist into early this evening within this beefier strato-cu. Looking farther west, high pressure is building southeast over the northern Plains, where skies clear. As a cooler airmass moves into the region, forecast concerns generally revolve around sky cover and temperatures. Tonight...The Canadian high pressure system will slide into the northern Mississippi Valley. Northwest to north winds will be cold advecting, with the thermal trough axis becoming centered over Wisconsin. 850mb temps are forecast to fall into the 6-7C range, which would put delta T`s in the 10-12C range over western Lake Superior by 7am Tue. As a result, think clouds will increase after midnight, and generally went with more clouds than guidance indicates. Because of these clouds and a tight pressure gradient, remained conservative with temps. Lows ranging from the low 50s in the north to low 60s in the south. Tuesday...The high pressure system will continue its slow march east and across the state of Wisconsin. With daytime mixing, clouds should eventually erode but think that will occur slower than guidance indicates. It will be a quiet and pleasant day with temps ranging from the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The main issue in the long-term portion of the forecast will be overnight fog potential along with precip timing/potential for the end of the work week in to next weekend. Tuesday night through Thursday night: A surface ridge will continue to build across the western Great Lakes through this time period, keeping fairly tranquil weather in place. Only some afternoon fair weather CU may develop each day, especially Tuesday and Wednesday as the area will be on the western side of the slowly departing upper- level trough. Otherwise, look for partly cloudy skies, generally light winds and more comfortable temperatures/humidity values through this time period. PWAT values are expected to drop to around 50 percent of normal for Tuesday through Thursday. This, along with light winds, will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight. This will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 40s in the typically cooler locations (mainly Tues night), while much of the rest of the area will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. This will also lead to some fog potential, especially in locations that have received heavier rainfall recently. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s to near 80. Rest of the extended: The high pressure system is expected to shift slowly off to the east and weaken through this time period, allowing more moist/southerly flow to increase across the area. At the same time, models are also showing a couple subtle shortwaves sliding through Friday into the weekend on the east side of an upper-level ridge. The exact timing on these features is challenging at best, which is not uncommon this far in advance of such systems. There are also signs that a frontal boundary may approach the area from the north Friday night into Saturday, helping to focus at least small precipitation chances. At this point, will stick with a blend of the models, bringing an increase in temps, some cloud cover and very low precip chances, Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Generally good flying conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Many of the clouds that were across the area during the afternoon have dissipated. But clouds from the Lake Superior region had overspread the far north, and should expand south at least somewhat overnight. Diurnal convective cloudiness will also reform tomorrow. Forecast soundings suggest a brief period of MVFR ceilings could occur during the middle to late morning until the mixed layer deepens. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 424 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Temperatures will continue to warm over the next few days, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. During that period, highs will reach well into the 90s and likely approach 100 degrees for some. Heat indices will likely approach 105 degrees, especially along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. Some relief is possible late in the week due to an increased risk of thunderstorms. In general, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at any point through the week, but may tend to be focused more in the overnight through early morning hours. A somewhat better chance of storms may arrive by Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 424 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The cold front that pushed through much of the area last night has continued to push southeast today, and now extends from the Ozarks back into central OK. In the wake of the front, RAP soundings show much drier low/mid level air working into the area. In fact, dewpoints across central Kansas have fallen into the mid to upper 40s (possibly due to better mixing and/or stronger subsidence). With the front remaining south of the area through this evening, no showers or storms are anticipated. This front will eventually return north over the next few days, likely stalling in a NW to SE fashion across the eastern half of Kansas. This front/baroclinic zone will reside on the edge of a broad upper level ridge centered over the central/southern High Plains. Through mid-week, a developing lee-side low/mid level trough should result in an increased LLJ and a gradual increase in elevated moisture transport across the Central Plains. This combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates within a broad EML plume will lead to increasing instability. Through WED AM, the elevated instability looks to be rooted above 700 mb and should be fairly weak (MUCAPE of 250 j/kg or less). Thinking the weak instability combined with broad WAA within the baroclinic zone will likely lead to some altocu development tonight and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The mid-levels look to remain too dry for any precip through Tuesday morning, but there may be enough moisture by Tuesday night for a few showers/storms to develop along the fringes of our CWA and pops were increased some in that area. That said, thinking the best chance of storms will remain across northern and northeastern KS. Martin .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 424 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Moisture and instability will continue to increase across the area from Wednesday through the first half of the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge over the High Plains is forecast to retrograde back to the west and will be centered over the Four Corners Region. This should open the door for a shortwave or two to drop southeast across the area within the NW flow aloft. Cooling temps aloft should lead to a weaker cap and continued steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, a continued southerly low-level flow should allow dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, with PWats of 1.5" to 2". Initially, the increasing dewpoints/humidity will be focused beneath the ridge, combining with highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees, leading to a decent chance of nearing or meeting Heat Advisory criteria. This will especially be the case Wednesday and Thursday along and west of I-35. As mentioned above, though, there will likely be an increased risk of thunderstorms towards the latter half of the week as the ridge shifts west. This should also lead to not-as-hot temperatures and a lessened threat of dangerous heat indices. East of the ridge, the flow aloft will increase some as well, with 30-40kt of deep layer shear expected. This combined with moderate to strong instability could allow a threat of organized strong/severe convection. Given a modest to strong cap in place, it could be that the daytime hours stay dry, with convection potentially more focused during the evening/overnight hours as the LLJ/WAA increases, providing better large-scale forcing for ascent. Any elevated convection that manages to impact the area should pose a large hail and heavy rain threat. Late in the week, there may be at least a conditional opportunity for SFC- based convection and potentially a greater severe threat. However, that will likely hinge on impacts from any previous convection and how strong the cap is. Stay tuned as we refine this potential in the coming days. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Light northeast winds this evening will remain light while becoming more easterly as high pressure over the Central Plains moves eastward. Low level southeast winds will return across the area on Tue with speeds of 10-15 mph common while VFR prevails across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 67 90 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 Hutchinson 66 91 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 Newton 65 88 67 95 / 0 0 10 10 ElDorado 65 88 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 65 90 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 66 93 69 100 / 10 10 10 0 Great Bend 65 93 70 99 / 0 0 10 0 Salina 65 89 68 96 / 0 10 20 10 McPherson 65 89 68 95 / 0 0 10 10 Coffeyville 64 88 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Chanute 63 86 66 90 / 0 0 10 20 Iola 63 85 66 89 / 0 0 20 20 Parsons-KPPF 65 87 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeast IL this evening and may last a couple of hours past midnight. An update is needed to account for the current radar trends in southeast IL just north of I-70. Models again have a poor handle on what is happening and what will occur next several hours so will probably be adjusting some pops/wx across southeast IL for rest of the night. Remainder of forecast looks fine as cold front continues to move southeast through the area. However, hard to find since winds have become very light everywhere except in southeast. Update will be sent shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest surface map shows the wind shift with the cold front has reached near the I-55 corridor, however the drier air lags behind a bit in Iowa. Bulk of the rain has pushed off into Indiana, though some rain lingers in the far southeast CWA and also near Tuscola and Mattoon. A few showers are also seen on radar immediately along the front. With the upper wave across about half of the forecast area, and drier air spreading in, the rain chances will mainly be across the eastern half of the forecast area into the evening. RAP/HRRR seem to be lingering the precip on a bit too long, though the 18Z HRRR may be finally latching onto the speed of the front and is starting to back off on the western extent. Thus, will have most areas dry by midnight. Temperatures on Tuesday will feel rather pleasant in most areas, with highs around 80. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Very little going on in the long term. The upper ridge over the Rockies will amplify as the week progresses, keeping the hot weather well to our west. With the resulting northwest upper flow, temperatures will be below normal much of the week, complete with lows in the 50s around mid week. While the highs gradually recover late this week, humidity levels are not expected to be excessive. The upper ridge will be far enough west that the nocturnal MCS`s that develop are expected to remain west of the Mississippi River. Thus, dry conditions should prevail. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites this evening and into the overnight hours. However, some light fog is possible in southeast IL and eastern IL, which could reach CMI and DEC where it takes a little longer for the dry air to advect in overnight. So will have TEMPO groups for both of light fog of 3-4sm. SPI/PIA/BMI should be drier and not see any fog. Scattered clouds this evening should quickly dissipate, especially at SPI & PIA. DEC and BMI could still some some scattered showers for an hour while CMI could see them for 2-3hrs. So for these sites will continue VCSH. CU will develop again tomorrow with lots of low level moisture around and plenty of start. Expecting cig heights just above 3kft so will have 3.5kft for all TAF sites and expecting broken cloud deck. Winds will be light and variable this evening with all sites except CMI behind the cold front...though CMI will see light and variable once front passes. Then expecting north-northwest winds tomorrow with speeds around 10kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 413 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes. The deeper moisture has moved east oef Upper Michigan and any signficant trailing shrtwvs near the mid level trough axis are expected remain well to the north through northern Ontario. However, a secondary cold front was moving into western Lake Superior. With the cooler air and increasing low level moisture, some light showers or sprinkles had developed over northeast MN. Isold -shra have also developed over eastern Upper Michigan near the Lake Superior breeze boundary. Tonight, expect the light showers or sprinkles over the east to dissipate this evening. Overnight, as winds veer nnw behind the cold front, upslope flow with the increasing low level moisture will support some light rain or drizzle for north central Upper Michigan, especially where upslope flow is strongest, and also for adjacent areas through Alger county. Tuesday, Drier air will move in by late morning bringing an end to any lingering light pcpn. Sunshine and mixing to 3k-4k ft will push temps into the lower 70s inland and drop dewpoints into the mid 40s. Lower readings in the mid to upper 60s are expected along Lake Superior. Increasing nw winds across Lake Superior will push waves into the 3 to 5 foot range resulting in hazardous beach conditions from Harvey eastward. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 328 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2019 High pressure will linger across the Upper Great Lakes as northwest flow persists through mid to late week. This will favor a gradual warming trend from mid to upper 70s to 80s be the end of the week. Late week through the weekend, there is still considerable uncertainty in regards to where/when precipitation may work it`s way into the region as a number of shortwaves push across the region later this week and weekend. Wednesday and Thursday, will be very similar days with pleasant and dry conditions. With forecast soundings showing significant dry air aloft as high pressure moves overhead, diurnal mixing will favor RHs in the 30 to 40% range. Thankfully, winds will be light and lake- driven both days. As for temperatures, warm air advection will push eastward during this time period, allowing temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows, especially on early Wednesday morning will be quite chilly compared to our normal low temperatures. The cooler spots look to be across the interior, with pre-dawn temperatures on Wednesday morning looking to drop into the low to mid 40s. Elsewhere, closer to Lake Superior temperatures will remain warmer, into the 50s. Thursday night into Friday, high pressure shifts east of the region and allows moisture to try and return northward as gradient winds take over and flow becomes more southerly. Depending on how the moisture return pans out and the next shortwave, we could see chances for showers and thunderstorm return on Friday. The GFS and Canadian show better chances, aided by a backdoor cold front. However, the ECMWF shows high pressure winning out and the front remaining north of the region. Over the upcoming weekend, depending on the timing of the above mentioned front and the strength of the post-frontal high, we could see the forecast go in either direction - mostly dry or chances for showers/storms. For now have kept what the NBM loaded with mostly slight chance mentions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 725 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2019 Breezy west to northwest winds will decrease after sunset. Additional low level moisture is expected to move in overnight as winds become northwest dropping cigs to MVFR. However, cigs should recover to VFR again by mid to late Tuesday morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 312 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2019 Breezy conditions are expected to develop this morning as a deepening low crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Gusts generally around 20 knots but up to 25 knots will occur across Lake Superior today, remaining breezy over the east half tonight as winds turn to the NW. Winds will be less than 20 knots prevailing Tuesday and below 15 knots Tuesday night through the remainder of this forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...Voss MARINE...KCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar imagery this evening shows a few showers and thunderstorms along or near the west edge of the Cumberland Plateau, while a much larger area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is approaching the Tennessee River from the west. Latest HRRR model brings this activity into our far western counties but weakens it as it does so, with the precip falling completely apart near or west of I-65. Additional activity looks to develop overnight and spread across the forecast area tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Based on this model output and radar trends, have updated latest pops for the evening and overnight hours, with main change to bump up precip chances along the Tennessee River. May have to raise them further if activity ends up not weakening as quickly. Rest of forecast is on track and just made updates based on latest obs. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Earlier showers across Middle Tennessee have almost entirely dissipated. Pre-frontal convection ongoing in West Tennessee will dissipate considerably before crossing into the mid state. The HRRR shows very little activity occurring in Middle Tennessee prior to about 10Z. Our rain chances will increase as the upper trough enters the mid state late tonight and through the morning, with convection diminishing during the afternoon as the surface front ushers in drier air. POP`s remain scattered for much of the forecast period, so will handle with PROB30 remarks with this set of TAF`s. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... High ceilings are spreading across the area from the north. One new signal this evening is the NAM, and to some extent the RAP and HRRR, are calling for some potential of low cloud development late tonight. What signal there is seems to be the highest from roughly CHK-ADM, but close enough that if low clouds do develop, they could potentially be an issue for KOKC, KOUN and KLAW. Right now the probability does now look high enough to include low clouds in the TAFs, but will watch trends through the night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ DISCUSSION... Frontal boundary continues to slowly move south across the fa with moisture pooling ahead of the front. The moisture pooling along with hot temperatures have lead to triple digit heat index values (100- 150) in some locations. Scattered showers/storms continue to develop and move across portions of southern OK and north TX early this afternoon. With the front and heating of the moist airmass, showers/storms will remain possible across S/SE portions of the fa the rest of this afternoon into possibly early evening although the chances will gradually shift south as well. Instability is sufficient enough that a few storms could become strong to severe before moving out of the fa. Dry conditions are expected for the next few days with temperatures gradually warming due to the upper ridge over the region. Models show the center of the upper high shifting a little bit west towards the end of the week which will reduce the influence of the ridge and could lead to N/NW flow over portions of the fa. Weak disturbances and/or MCSs moving in this flow could lead to some showers/storms, generally in eastern parts of the fa. There is still not a great deal of confidence in this rain forecast due to the uncertainty of how far west the ridge shifts and the subtle nature of any features that could lead to rain but low chances do seem warranted at this time and hopefully confidence will increase later this week. Another consequence of the shifting upper ridge and clouds/rain will be a slight cooling of temperatures late this week/weekend. After this weekend, models begin to disagree whether the region will be under NW flow or whether the upper ridge will continue over the area which will have an impact temperatures and on whether there are rain chances or not. Another thing to keep an eye on will be that fire weather conditions could approach elevated conditions towards the middle of the week. With very little to no rain in some areas over the last few weeks, vegetation is drying out and ERC values are increasing. Breezy southerly winds and potential min RH values of 15-25 percent in some locations, the near elevated conditions could be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 94 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 98 72 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 98 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 67 92 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 72 95 73 95 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 An upper ridge will be centered over northwest NM today and will drift a bit eastward tonight. There will be enough moisture and instability over the area today for showers/tstms to develop over the mtns by midday, and then move off over the lower elevations. By about midafternoon some storms are expected to move over the I-25 corridor, with the best chances being over El Paso County. Then the NAM and HRRR are indicating a line of storms working east or southeast across the plains through the evening hours. High temps will be just slightly above average in most locations today. Most if not all precip should end by midnight. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Tue and Wed the upper ridge will be centered over north central or northeast NM, with the best tap of moisture remaining over UT. However, there will still be enough moisture over the area for afternoon and evening showers/tstms, with the highest chances being over the mtns and high valleys, but the I-25 corridor could see isolated to scattered storms, and the southeast plains may be mainly dry, with just some isolated activity being possible. Highs on Tue and Wed will be above average over the southeast plains, with some readings into the lower 100s, while the high valleys should see highs around average, in the lower and mid 80s. On Thu, the upper ridge center is expected to be near the NM and TX border area, and the plume of moisture is expected to shift a bit eastward and will be over western CO. This should result in better chances for precip and the potential for heavy rain. The southeast plains should generally be dry on Thu. The upper ridge center is forecast to slowly drift westward over NM Fri through Sun. Moisture will remain trapped under the ridge over southern CO, for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially from the I-25 corridor and westward. The models don`t agree on precip chances over the southeast plains, with the GFS showing higher chances than the EC. Temps are expected to be a little cooler Fri through Sun, with lower to mid 90s for highs over the plains, and lower 80s in the high valleys. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 In general, expect VFR conditions across most of the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAf sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Showers and thunderstorms are trying to develop over the higher terrain as of 1730z, and will track east across the adjacent high valleys and plains through the afternoon and evening, reaching the far eastern plains late tonight. Therefore, mentioned VCTS for all three TAF sites starting around 21z-22z, and lasting through 02z tonight. Any storms that move across the sites will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief periods of moderate rain temporarily reducing visibilities, and small hail. Moore && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...MOORE