Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/27/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 812 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Still some isolated to scattered convective activity ongoing
across the county warning area, mainly driven from terrain and
boundary interactions. Showers and thunderstorms most active and
strongest east and south of denver, especially across Elbert and
Lincoln counties. Nothing to strong with brief heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty winds. Evening sounding at DNR showed
precipitable water values have jumped close to an inch but mid
level inversion has kept a lid on thunderstorms from getting to
strong. Most of the activity will end by midnight, but could see
some lingering light showers in the mountains given approach of
upper wave and deeper moisture to the west. Will adjust forecast
to align with current storm trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Storms have formed along a boundary that was roughly over Greeley
to Sterling this afternoon. These storms have formed two outflow
boundaries with one moving northward and another moving
southward. Each of these may create more storms this afternoon so
POPs were increased along and north of the I-76 corridor.

This evening, storms will push off the mountains onto the plains
with generally light precipitation amounts. The trend in the high
resolution models is for the storms to be weaker this evening
than previous model runs. This would make sense with the
relatively dry air below 500 mb. Recent runs of the HRRR showed
showers and weak storms continuing after midnight over the
northeast corner of the state. I added POPs to indicate a slight
chance of showers over this area between 06 and 12Z tonight.

Moisture will increase on Saturday as precipitable water values
will reach above an inch on the plains during the late afternoon.
A mid to upper level shortwave will be moving through northern
Colorado around midday which will provide enough forcing to
generate scattered to widespread showers and storms. There are
likely POPs in the mountains tomorrow and people planning on being
outside should be aware of the high threat for lightning during
the afternoon. These showers and storms will produce brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. If storms begin to train over the same
area tomorrow there could be some minor flooding but with mean
wind increasing due to the shortwave bringing in better flow
aloft, the flood threat will be low. A severe storm or two cannot
be ruled out near the Wyoming border but low to moderate
instability and deep layer shear indicates storms will struggle
to sustain strong updrafts. Otherwise, highs will be a couple of
degrees cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Storms will continue through Saturday evening, both over the
higher terrain and over the eastern plains as the upper trough
traverses across the forecast area. A jet pushing into
southwestern Wyoming overnight will help sustain a slight chance
of mountains showers and thunderstorms through the night.

High surface pressure behind the upper trough will push down from
the lee of the Northern Rockies through the day on Sunday. This
will bring cooler, drier and more stable air, mostly to the
plains, with PWs about a third of an inch lower than Saturday.
Some upslope flow into the foothills and mountains will likely be
just enough to have isolated to scattered storms there in a low
CAPE and moderate shear environment. GFS shows a jet max pushing
into Nebraska Sunday night, putting our northeastern corner into
the RRQ of the jet. All the other models have the jet max
stretching further back into Wyoming, but if the GFS is right, we may
see a slight chance of elevated thunderstorms overnight Sunday
night.

The upper high will be just south of the Four Corners area Monday
morning, and will begin pushing east-northeast to be over far
southeastern Colorado by Thursday night. This will allow
subtropical moisture into the area, increasing diurnal
thunderstorm coverage each day, and keeping temperatures steady as
slight warming is counterbalanced with an increase in cloud cover.

On Friday, there are model discrepancies, but overall there will
be a shortwave trough passing to the north in Canada which will
push the upper high south. The only real affect should be cooler
temperatures but continued stormy afternoon and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 801 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Boundary has just pushed through KDEN as winds have shifted
northwest and this will likely hold through around 04z before
shifting southerly through the night. Still some scattered light
showers over APA and this activity will likely remain through 03z
before diminishing. Better chances for thunderstorm coverage on
Saturday afternoon with approach of upper level wave and deeper
moisture over the region.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Entrekin




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 922 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally remain centered over the southern
Appalachians as a stationary front persists over northern
Florida this weekend into early next week. By mid to late week,
a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track and only required minor adjustments to
hourly pops. 27/01z surface observations show weak low pressure
beginning sharpen northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida and the
stationary front. MSAS SMC fields also show moisture
convergence slowly increasing along the Georgia coast with a
recently uptick noted in reflectivity off the coast per KCLX
radar data. Both the RAP and H3R support the ongoing pop regime,
although a slight southward adjustment of the corridor of
highest pops was needed per going model trends.

26/21z surface and satellite analysis placed a stationary front
well offshore arching back through central Florida with surface
high pressure entrenched across the interior. Guidance is
similar in showing a weak wave of low pressure forming along the
front later this evening in response to a pronounced mid- level
vorticity maximum currently situated over northern Florida. As
the low develops, a pinching of the pressure gradient will
result in an increase in sfc-850 hPa moisture convergence along
the coast. This should result in a net increase in shower/tstm
activity over the coastal waters later this evening into early
Saturday as the low passes by well offshore, some of which
should move inland over the coastal counties. High resolution
data look to favor the Edisto Beach to Tybee Island corridor for
the better rain chances overnight and this is where the highest
pops (40-50%) have been placed through daybreak Saturday. There
will be a sharp decrease in moisture away from the coast and
pops will drop off to 0% as a result. A period of higher pops
may eventually be needed once confidence increases on exactly
where the corridor of strongest moisture convergence will form.

Mostly cloudy conditions this evening will give way to clearing
overnight, especially over the interior, but coastal areas
should see a fair amount of cloud cover for much of the night.
Lows will range from the mid-upper 60s well inland to the upper
70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
This weekend, steady northeast winds will remain across the forecast
area, supported by high pressure centered over the southern
Appalachians and a stationary front over northern Florida.
Relatively drier llvl air will build SW across the Coastal Plain of
SC and portions of GA. However, deeper moisture will remain along
and north of the stationary front south the GA/FL line. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the southern marine
zones, possibly drifting onshore across SE GA on Saturday.
Temperatures under a weakness in the H5 heights are expected to
remain near normals. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s. On Monday, the axis of drier air will
remain along the coast, with moisture building over the marine zones
and far inland. I will keep PoPs limited to SCHC across the marine
zones and keeping the land zones dry. Monday temperatures should
warm a degree or two from the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure responsible for dry and cooler conditions earlier in
the week will slowly modify and moisten ahead of an upper lvl trough
of low pressure making way to the Southeast United States by
midweek. Although a few showers or isolated thunderstorm are
possible Tuesday, the bulk of precip chances should arrive later
Wednesday then persist through late week as the mid-lvl trough
lingers aloft and a weak cold front attempts to shift into the
region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms have been introduced
into the forecast, highest across the area late week. High temps
should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. Low temps
should range in the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s near the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. Could see a few showers develop near KSAV early Saturday as
a wave of low pressure passes by well offshore. Guidance tends
to favor keeping this activity east of the terminal, but VCSH
will be carried 08-12z to cover.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at both CHS
and SAV terminals. There is a low-end chance for flight restrictions
at the SAV terminal this weekend due to showers and or thunderstorms
drifting onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will prevail over the southern Appalachians
while a stationary front is to our south. Expect northeast
winds around 15 kt and seas 2-4 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will remain centered over
the southern Appalachians as a stationary front running across
northern Florida. This pattern will support steady northeast around
15 kts on Saturday and Sunday. Wave heights are forecast to
generally range from 2-4 ft across the nearshore waters, with 5 ft
common across the outer GA waters. Monday through Wednesday, winds
will gradually turn from the southeast, with speeds between 5-10 kt.
Wave heights will gradually subside to 1-2 ft by Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The evening high tide may result in minor coastal flooding around
the Charleston Harbor next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Gray ME

 941 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tomorrow night and will move through the region on Sunday. Warm
and humid weather will continue on Monday. Another frontal
system will move through the region late Tuesday and Wednesday,
followed by unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
940 PM Update...
Small areas of stratus were affecting locations around
Penobscot Bay and also over York County and coastal New
Hampshire. These should expand and fog will develop as
temperatures continue to drop. No changes to the forecast
outside of adjusting hourly temperatures and dew points.


655 PM Update...
Minor changes to add fog in a few more places overnight,
including the Jetport and just into Cumberland County. Latest
HRRR and NARRE-TL show an arc of fog possibly forming from
there towards Concord in the early morning hours. Otherwise
skies were tweaked slightly but forecast is in good shape.


Previous discussion...
Another reasonably quiet night expected tonight. High pressure
is still in command of the weather over northern New England,
but sustained southerly flow is allowing dewpoints to climb a
little bit. Expect afternoon cu field to fall apart quickly
toward evening, resulting in clear skies and decent radiational
cooling. Once again expect to see some patchy fog develop over
favored valley locations.

&&SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high shifts east over the maritimes to start the day on
Saturday. As a closed upper level low and associated trof over
the western Great Lakes begins to migrate toward the east, we
can expect to see increased southerly flow over northern New
England. Although the best dynamics will be well west of our
area, we should start to see enough instability for some showers
and thunderstorms to form over the mountains. A continued
increase in dewpoints should result in patchy fog once again
Saturday night. Expect there could start to be some patchy fog
along the coast as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the long term warm and humid weather will be the rule with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. A cold front
approaches the forecast area Sunday. Convection may start before
noon in the mountains. Do not expect severe weather at this
time. Sunday will be warm with highs near 90 in southern New
Hampshire and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front
moves through by Monday morning however not much of a change in
airmass with temperatures still 85 to 90 and dewpoint
temperatures in the 60s. A warm front will quickly move north
through the forecast area Monday. There is a chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Tuesday is expected to be
hot and humid with highs in the 90s. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. Wednesday a cold
front approaches and showers and thunderstorms should be more
widespread. The front will slow down and gradually move off the
coast Thursday with the chance of showers again. Friday more
comfortable weather and somewhat lower dewpoints expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions can be expected. The
exception being mountain valley locations tonight where patchy
fogs sets up. Expect Lebanon and Whitefield to see some IFR
conditions in fog. Fog may be more widespread Saturday night.

Long Term...Expect mostly VFR. However MVFR/IFR possible in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags expected.

Long Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
criteria.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Pohl
LONG TERM...Hawley



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

 907 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.UPDATE...
852 PM CDT

The going forecast is trending along well and no major updates are
needed at this time. Spotty showers are ongoing across the open
waters of Lake Michigan in association with a band of warm
advection centered at 700 mb. Seeing some ACCAS off to the west of
our office, indicative of at least a bit of mid-level instability,
at the tail end of this area of modest ascent. Can`t rule out a
very isolated shower or two developing out of this mid-level
cloud deck, but chances look to remain under 15% and don`t see a
need to carry a weather mention at this point given a paucity of
instability above 700-600 mb.

Some hi-res guidance suggests the development of scattered showers
very late tonight and into Saturday morning. This seems to be tied
to another region of very modest warm advection near the 305-310 K
theta surfaces. Moisture looks pretty marginal and thermodynamic
profiles actually look capped to forcing under about 700 mb or so
(where the bulk of the warm advection is occurring). We`ll
continue to show some "silent" 10-15% PoPs along and north of I-80
Saturday morning as a result. Evening guidance continues to
support breezy southwest winds developing mid-late morning
tomorrow and nudged speeds up a hair in the evening update with
occasional gusts to around 30 mph.

Forecast soundings continue to appear capped to surface-based
convection through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Given a lack of
forcing mechanisms, the inherited dry forecast through Saturday
evening looks good. Updated products have been transmitted.

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM...
252 PM CDT

Through Saturday...

There are no significant forecast concerns through Saturday
afternoon, with the main item of note being very warm temperatures
Saturday afternoon. The short-wave that produced a few sprinkles
over the region this morning continues to progress southeast this
afternoon. In the presence of weak instability, this wave produced
enough forcing for a slightly agitated Cu field for parts of the
area south of I-80. A rogue shower popped up over northern
Livingston County out of the Cu field, though latest scans
indicate it`s already weakening given weak shear and instability.
Will monitor this area, but do not plan to add any mentionable
PoPs to the gridded forecast, as this shower was most pronounced
on satellite and still was very short lived.

This evening and overnight will be quiet with steady south-
southwesterly winds around 10 mph or less, featuring lows in the
mid-upper 60s outside of Chicago and low 70s in/near downtown.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a fairly stout upper
low for this time of year gyrating into western Ontario. Our area
will be south of a glancing blow of forcing from this wave.
Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate unfavorably dry profiles
aloft and likelihood of capping even to elevated parcels. Showers
and storms over the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Lakes
may drift southeast toward the state line Saturday morning.
However, given the aforementioned hostile environment over
northern Illinois, suspect that any activity that survives will be
decaying sprinkles/isolated light showers at most (with 12z ECMWF
depiction Saturday AM deemed to be an outlier). Stuck with a dry
official forecast, holding off any sprinkle mention for now.

Expecting some mid-level cloud cover Saturday, perhaps peaking in
the north in the morning, with scattered diurnal Cu in the
afternoon. Unidirectional southwest flow ahead of cold front
dropping south across Wisconsin will mean no low level
convergence along with large scale forcing being displaced well to
the north. Given these factors and narrow, skinny CAPE on
soundings, kept a dry forecast through the afternoon. Drier and
more well mixed profile on RAP soundings is overall preferred to
unrealistic low level dew points on GFS and NAM. Thus, with any
clouds not expected to impede warming, 925 mb temps peaking in
low-mid 20s Celsius, and southwest winds gusting to around 25 mph,
expecting highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (87-91 range). This
setup appears favorable to yield dew points mixing out some, or at
least not climbing during the afternoon, with primarily low-mid
60s F at peak heating. Therefore, despite the return of temps
around 90, max heat indices will only be a few degrees higher than
forecast highs, so not too uncomfortable for outdoor activities.

Castro

&&

.LONG TERM...
252 PM CDT

Saturday night through Friday...

Saturday night: A cold front associated with low pressure over
Ontario will stall across the southern half of WI by Saturday
evening. A weak mid-level wave passing over the stalled front
combined with a modest increase in low-level flow will likely
initiate scattered convection across the south half of WI during the
evening. This activity may gradually drift south into the northern
tier of counties around midnight, partially due to any resultant
outflow boundaries from the convection. With minimal forcing in the
area overnight and low-level flow nearly parallel to the boundary,
any activity should dissipate while possibly reaching as far south
as I-80. Am not expecting much coverage, with much of the area
likely remaining dry. Some storms on the stronger side across WI may
reach the state line before beginning the diminishing trend.

Sunday: Conditions will be somewhat similar to Saturday, with
capping likely inhibiting precip development through the day while
SW flow maintains warmer conditions across the region. Afternoon
temps around 90F are expected. Modest dew points in the mid 60s will
limit oppressive heat index readings, with values likely in the low
to possibly mid 90s.

Sunday night through Monday night: Broad upper troughing will track
eastward into the Upper MS Valley by Monday morning. An associated
surface low moving across northwest WI and western Upper MI Sunday
night will push a cold front across the CWA late Sunday night into
Monday night. Much of the area will experience the frontal passage
at a diurnally unfavorable time for convection, likely resulting in
scattered showers with only embedded thunder through the morning
into early afternoon. Overall, any given location will likely see
around a six hour window of precip potential. There will also be a
conditional chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon
across much of the area as the upper trough lags the cold front.
However, capping may prevent any convective initiation during this
time.

Tuesday through Thursday: An extended period of dry weather with
seasonable temperatures looks likely during this time as somewhat
stagnant mid-level flow across the CONUS places the region on the
eastern extent of broad ridging across the Great Plains. This should
keep the area far enough removed from any ring-of-fire activity on
the periphery of the ridge.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

Overall minimal aviation weather concerns through the rest of the
evening with gusty south to southwesterly winds subsiding. Modest
warm advection to our north is resulting in the development of
isolated to scattered showers across southeastern Wisconsin. Not
expecting any direct impacts from this activity on our area TAF
sites outside of a potential spit of rain this evening. Chances
appear too low to warrant a VCSH mention at this juncture.

Model guidance hints at the potential for some shower activity to
develop Saturday morning in association with another region of
modest warm advection. Guidance remains split regarding how much
moisture will be available, which lowers our confidence in the
precipitation potential. For the time being, will continue to
advertise precipitation-free TAFs, but a few showers aren`t out of
the realm of possibility. Will continue to monitor evening model
guidance and adjust the TAFs as necessary.

Surface winds will maintain a southwesterly direction on Saturday
and will likely become a bit gustier compared to today. Expect
occasional wind gusts into the 25-30 kt range as we mix into some
stronger flow aloft. Favored direction of 220-240 should curtail
any crosswind issues on E-W runways.

A cold front will approach the region from the north Saturday
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings appear capped to
surface-based convection across our region through the day, but
expect a broken line of thunderstorms to develop along the front
across southern Wisconsin during the evening hours. This activity
could sink south into northern Illinois late Saturday evening.
Confidence was too low to introduce a precipitation mention as we
expect convection to be on a weakening trend. Trends will be
monitored, however, for a potential VCTS or VCSH in subsequent TAF
issuances.

Carlaw/Porterfield

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 AM Saturday to 9 PM Saturday.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

 304 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...Current observations are showing two separate things
going on across southern Oregon and northern California. The first
is that thunderstorms have developed just east of the Warner
Mountains and extend northward into Lake County near Adel. These
cells will continue this afternoon with rain and lightning
possible. Severe weather, however, is really not expected today.

The other scenario is that the MP 97 fire near Canyonville is
producing smoke which is reducing visibilities downwind. So far,
the visibilities, even at the 4 low passes north of Grants Pass
on Interstate 5, are not enough to warrant a dense smoke
advisory, but will need to continue monitoring this-- especially
if the fire becomes plume-dominated once again. This smoke,
however, has caused the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality
to issue an Air Pollution advisory, which you can view via our
Air Quality Alert (AQAMFR). The HRRR smoke model shows significant
smoke entering the Rogue and Shasta Valleys west of the Cascades
this evening, and smoke mixing down the mountains south of Crater
Lake into Klamath County, including Klamath Falls later in the
evening. The southern Oregon Coast (south of Pistol River) will
also see some smoke return tonight as winds shift. Overall, don`t
expect too much of a change in the pattern over the weekend.

This pattern of hot and dry weather continues into next week.
There are some pockets of moisture increasing precipitation
chances, but it does not appear as if our instability and moisture
line up super well. We`re keeping a 10 percent chance or less of
precipitation across our area for this weekend.

A frontal system tries to move into the Pacific Northwest by
midweek, but this system will fizzle out by the time it reaches
the coast. This front will work to bring temperatures a little
bit lower than they were today, and will keep our "cooling trend"
going for a bit longer. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...For the 26/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog will
burn off before noon, but is expected to return this evening and
tonight.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with the exception of areas
affected by smoke from a wildfire burning near Canyonville. Smoke
from this fire will reduce visibilities in areas to the south,
including Grants Pass and KMFR in the Rogue Valley, and perhaps into
KLMT and and portions of Siskiyou County. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR
visibilities in these areas through tonight and portions of Friday,
especially in the afternoon and early evening. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Friday 26 July 2019...The thermal
trough will weaken through today, then build again Sunday evening.
Gales have diminished, yet winds will still be breezy and hazardous
to smaller craft south of Cape Blanco through this evening. Very
steep and hazardous seas are possible by Sunday afternoon and
conditions hazardous to small craft will exist for most of the
marine area.

Model winds are in agreement for magnitude as they build again
Sunday evening. Position is also in moderate agreement. This
provides moderate confidence for the return of warning conditions
for Hazardous seas south of Bookings. -Kilometers


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, 26 July 2019...
Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon, mainly east of
the Warner Mountains. Satellite imagery shows building cumulus
fields over Modoc and Lake Counties, and given the latest model
guidance, it still seems likely that a few isolated thunderstorms
will develop in these areas later this afternoon and evening. Some
isolated thunderstorms are possible farther west into Klamath and
eastern Siskiyou counties, as shown in some of the higher resolution
convective allowing models, but the dry air mass in place that far
west will likely limit development.

Otherwise, conditions today and Saturday should be very similar to
yesterday, with hot and dry conditions and breezy afternoon winds.
Despite improving overnight and early morning recoveries, the latest
humidity guidance this afternoon shows distinctly drier daytime
humidities Saturday and Sunday. This trend is resulting from drier
air moving into the midlevels, which is then mixed down to the
surface during the heat of the day. Combined with afternoon breezy
winds, some areas will approach Red Flag criteria, namely in the
Rogue, Shasta, and Scott Valleys, however these critical conditions
are not expected to be met.

It is also worth noting that the dry, unstable air mass could push
Haines values to 6 over Lake and Modoc counties Sunday and Monday,
with values of 5 for most locations elsewhere.

As for smoke concerns, expect NW surface winds to transition to SW
aloft as the east winds weaken through tonight. Low level smoke from
the Milepost 97 Fire will move south and SE, while the higher
portion of the smoke column should push out to the NE. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ350-370.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday
     night for PZZ376.

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 939 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

The Flash Flood Watch for the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains
has been cancelled early. The atmosphere has stabilized and heavy
rain has ended across the high terrain for this evening, ending
the flash flood threat. Also updated PoPs to account for ongoing
precipitation activity, including waning of precip over the high
terrain, and development of isolated showers and thunderstorms
over El Paso and northern Pueblo counties. Storms are initiating
along outflow boundaries and tapping into up to 500 j/kg CAPE.
Given anomalously high TPW, expect heavy rain to be possible with
this activity, in addition to cloud to ground lightning and wind
gusts to 40 mph. Precipitation should come to an end around
midnight. ~Line

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Currently...

Scattered showers were noted over the mountains at 2 pm. A few of
these showers were over the Spring burn scar. A couple of isolated
storms were note over the lower elevations between Pueblo and Canon
City. Otherwise the rest of the plains was dry.

Sat pix show a classic example of a "dirty ridge" over the
southwestern CONUS. Mid level anticyclonic gyre is clearly seen in
the water vapor imagery rotating over the SW, with the gyre centered
over the general 4 corners region. Quite a bit of moisture is
embedded within this gyre per sat pix imgy and 12 UTC sounding data.

CAPE over the region at this hour was minimal, especially over the
mtns. A theta-e axis of about 1000 CAPE was noted over the plains
extending from roughly KGLD sw`wd towards Kim.

Rest of today into tonight....

Main concern will be locally heavy rain over the mountains, with the
southern Sangres expected to receive the brunt of it per several
HRRR runs. Best chance of this heavy rain is expected this evening
after 7 pm and lasting into mid evening. Otherwise, scattered
showers and storms will be possible over all of the higher terrain
the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours. Given the NW
aloft, storms will move parallel to the Sangres this afternoon and
evening.

After storms end this evening skies should clear out for the most
part.

Tomorrow...

Expect to see a similar scenario to today precip-wise. NW flow aloft
will continue and believe the heaviest precip will be once again
over the southern Sangres. so Spring burn scar will be problematic
once again. Flow at mid levels tomorrow will have a bit more of a
westerly component to it at midlevel and this may allow for a
slightly better chance of showers and storms over the plains late
tomorrow afternoon. Later shifts may need to issue another Flash
Flood watch for the burn scars for tomorrow.

Max temps tomorrow will be similar to todays highs with generally
low to mid 90s over the plains and 70s and 80s over the higher
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Saturday night and Sunday...A relatively flat ridge over the desert
southwest will retreat even further west to southern CA and NV over
the weekend, as an upper disturbance crosses the northern Rockies.
This disturbance will push a cold front south into eastern CO Sunday
morning, but little cooling is expected with it. In fact, some
drying with this northerly push should help limit the spread of
convection, with just some scattered convection over the mts during
the aftn and eve. Look for low temps in the mid 40s to around 50F
for the high valleys Sat night, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the
plains. Max temps on Sun will climb into the 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper ridge redevelops and centers over the
Four Corners on Mon, then over the NM and CO border on Tue. Temps
start to creep upward, but models indicate that aftn and eve
convection will most likely remain over the mts with mainly dry
conditions for the plains. Expect highs around 80F for the high
valleys both days, while the plains will warm into the upper 80s to
mid 90s on Mon, then 90s to near 100F for Tue.

Wednesday through Friday...The ridge of high pressure slides east
and centers over the OK and TX Panhandles for Wed and Thu, while a
minor disturbance rotates north up across the Great Basin. The ridge
then tries to push back west along the NM and CO border on Fri. Long
range models show increased chances for pcpn across the forecast
area all three days, with convection spreading to the eastern plains
as well. Temps remain hot Wed and Thu with highs in the lower 80s
for the high valleys and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains, then
cool slightly on Fri with max temps around 80F for the high valleys,
and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Taf sites will likely see the threat of showers and storms later this
afternoon/evening and once again tomorrow afternoon/early evening
which may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR next
24 hours as I do not expect any low cigs tonight.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH