Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/27/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
812 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 801 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Still some isolated to scattered convective activity ongoing across the county warning area, mainly driven from terrain and boundary interactions. Showers and thunderstorms most active and strongest east and south of denver, especially across Elbert and Lincoln counties. Nothing to strong with brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Evening sounding at DNR showed precipitable water values have jumped close to an inch but mid level inversion has kept a lid on thunderstorms from getting to strong. Most of the activity will end by midnight, but could see some lingering light showers in the mountains given approach of upper wave and deeper moisture to the west. Will adjust forecast to align with current storm trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Storms have formed along a boundary that was roughly over Greeley to Sterling this afternoon. These storms have formed two outflow boundaries with one moving northward and another moving southward. Each of these may create more storms this afternoon so POPs were increased along and north of the I-76 corridor. This evening, storms will push off the mountains onto the plains with generally light precipitation amounts. The trend in the high resolution models is for the storms to be weaker this evening than previous model runs. This would make sense with the relatively dry air below 500 mb. Recent runs of the HRRR showed showers and weak storms continuing after midnight over the northeast corner of the state. I added POPs to indicate a slight chance of showers over this area between 06 and 12Z tonight. Moisture will increase on Saturday as precipitable water values will reach above an inch on the plains during the late afternoon. A mid to upper level shortwave will be moving through northern Colorado around midday which will provide enough forcing to generate scattered to widespread showers and storms. There are likely POPs in the mountains tomorrow and people planning on being outside should be aware of the high threat for lightning during the afternoon. These showers and storms will produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. If storms begin to train over the same area tomorrow there could be some minor flooding but with mean wind increasing due to the shortwave bringing in better flow aloft, the flood threat will be low. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out near the Wyoming border but low to moderate instability and deep layer shear indicates storms will struggle to sustain strong updrafts. Otherwise, highs will be a couple of degrees cooler. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Storms will continue through Saturday evening, both over the higher terrain and over the eastern plains as the upper trough traverses across the forecast area. A jet pushing into southwestern Wyoming overnight will help sustain a slight chance of mountains showers and thunderstorms through the night. High surface pressure behind the upper trough will push down from the lee of the Northern Rockies through the day on Sunday. This will bring cooler, drier and more stable air, mostly to the plains, with PWs about a third of an inch lower than Saturday. Some upslope flow into the foothills and mountains will likely be just enough to have isolated to scattered storms there in a low CAPE and moderate shear environment. GFS shows a jet max pushing into Nebraska Sunday night, putting our northeastern corner into the RRQ of the jet. All the other models have the jet max stretching further back into Wyoming, but if the GFS is right, we may see a slight chance of elevated thunderstorms overnight Sunday night. The upper high will be just south of the Four Corners area Monday morning, and will begin pushing east-northeast to be over far southeastern Colorado by Thursday night. This will allow subtropical moisture into the area, increasing diurnal thunderstorm coverage each day, and keeping temperatures steady as slight warming is counterbalanced with an increase in cloud cover. On Friday, there are model discrepancies, but overall there will be a shortwave trough passing to the north in Canada which will push the upper high south. The only real affect should be cooler temperatures but continued stormy afternoon and evenings. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 801 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Boundary has just pushed through KDEN as winds have shifted northwest and this will likely hold through around 04z before shifting southerly through the night. Still some scattered light showers over APA and this activity will likely remain through 03z before diminishing. Better chances for thunderstorm coverage on Saturday afternoon with approach of upper level wave and deeper moisture over the region. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
922 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will generally remain centered over the southern Appalachians as a stationary front persists over northern Florida this weekend into early next week. By mid to late week, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Coastal Plain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The forecast is on track and only required minor adjustments to hourly pops. 27/01z surface observations show weak low pressure beginning sharpen northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida and the stationary front. MSAS SMC fields also show moisture convergence slowly increasing along the Georgia coast with a recently uptick noted in reflectivity off the coast per KCLX radar data. Both the RAP and H3R support the ongoing pop regime, although a slight southward adjustment of the corridor of highest pops was needed per going model trends. 26/21z surface and satellite analysis placed a stationary front well offshore arching back through central Florida with surface high pressure entrenched across the interior. Guidance is similar in showing a weak wave of low pressure forming along the front later this evening in response to a pronounced mid- level vorticity maximum currently situated over northern Florida. As the low develops, a pinching of the pressure gradient will result in an increase in sfc-850 hPa moisture convergence along the coast. This should result in a net increase in shower/tstm activity over the coastal waters later this evening into early Saturday as the low passes by well offshore, some of which should move inland over the coastal counties. High resolution data look to favor the Edisto Beach to Tybee Island corridor for the better rain chances overnight and this is where the highest pops (40-50%) have been placed through daybreak Saturday. There will be a sharp decrease in moisture away from the coast and pops will drop off to 0% as a result. A period of higher pops may eventually be needed once confidence increases on exactly where the corridor of strongest moisture convergence will form. Mostly cloudy conditions this evening will give way to clearing overnight, especially over the interior, but coastal areas should see a fair amount of cloud cover for much of the night. Lows will range from the mid-upper 60s well inland to the upper 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... This weekend, steady northeast winds will remain across the forecast area, supported by high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians and a stationary front over northern Florida. Relatively drier llvl air will build SW across the Coastal Plain of SC and portions of GA. However, deeper moisture will remain along and north of the stationary front south the GA/FL line. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the southern marine zones, possibly drifting onshore across SE GA on Saturday. Temperatures under a weakness in the H5 heights are expected to remain near normals. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. On Monday, the axis of drier air will remain along the coast, with moisture building over the marine zones and far inland. I will keep PoPs limited to SCHC across the marine zones and keeping the land zones dry. Monday temperatures should warm a degree or two from the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure responsible for dry and cooler conditions earlier in the week will slowly modify and moisten ahead of an upper lvl trough of low pressure making way to the Southeast United States by midweek. Although a few showers or isolated thunderstorm are possible Tuesday, the bulk of precip chances should arrive later Wednesday then persist through late week as the mid-lvl trough lingers aloft and a weak cold front attempts to shift into the region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms have been introduced into the forecast, highest across the area late week. High temps should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. Low temps should range in the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s near the coast. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Could see a few showers develop near KSAV early Saturday as a wave of low pressure passes by well offshore. Guidance tends to favor keeping this activity east of the terminal, but VCSH will be carried 08-12z to cover. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at both CHS and SAV terminals. There is a low-end chance for flight restrictions at the SAV terminal this weekend due to showers and or thunderstorms drifting onshore. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will prevail over the southern Appalachians while a stationary front is to our south. Expect northeast winds around 15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will remain centered over the southern Appalachians as a stationary front running across northern Florida. This pattern will support steady northeast around 15 kts on Saturday and Sunday. Wave heights are forecast to generally range from 2-4 ft across the nearshore waters, with 5 ft common across the outer GA waters. Monday through Wednesday, winds will gradually turn from the southeast, with speeds between 5-10 kt. Wave heights will gradually subside to 1-2 ft by Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The evening high tide may result in minor coastal flooding around the Charleston Harbor next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
941 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will approach from the northwest tomorrow night and will move through the region on Sunday. Warm and humid weather will continue on Monday. Another frontal system will move through the region late Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 940 PM Update... Small areas of stratus were affecting locations around Penobscot Bay and also over York County and coastal New Hampshire. These should expand and fog will develop as temperatures continue to drop. No changes to the forecast outside of adjusting hourly temperatures and dew points. 655 PM Update... Minor changes to add fog in a few more places overnight, including the Jetport and just into Cumberland County. Latest HRRR and NARRE-TL show an arc of fog possibly forming from there towards Concord in the early morning hours. Otherwise skies were tweaked slightly but forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion... Another reasonably quiet night expected tonight. High pressure is still in command of the weather over northern New England, but sustained southerly flow is allowing dewpoints to climb a little bit. Expect afternoon cu field to fall apart quickly toward evening, resulting in clear skies and decent radiational cooling. Once again expect to see some patchy fog develop over favored valley locations. &&SYNOPSIS... .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high shifts east over the maritimes to start the day on Saturday. As a closed upper level low and associated trof over the western Great Lakes begins to migrate toward the east, we can expect to see increased southerly flow over northern New England. Although the best dynamics will be well west of our area, we should start to see enough instability for some showers and thunderstorms to form over the mountains. A continued increase in dewpoints should result in patchy fog once again Saturday night. Expect there could start to be some patchy fog along the coast as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the long term warm and humid weather will be the rule with the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. A cold front approaches the forecast area Sunday. Convection may start before noon in the mountains. Do not expect severe weather at this time. Sunday will be warm with highs near 90 in southern New Hampshire and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front moves through by Monday morning however not much of a change in airmass with temperatures still 85 to 90 and dewpoint temperatures in the 60s. A warm front will quickly move north through the forecast area Monday. There is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Tuesday is expected to be hot and humid with highs in the 90s. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. Wednesday a cold front approaches and showers and thunderstorms should be more widespread. The front will slow down and gradually move off the coast Thursday with the chance of showers again. Friday more comfortable weather and somewhat lower dewpoints expected. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions can be expected. The exception being mountain valley locations tonight where patchy fogs sets up. Expect Lebanon and Whitefield to see some IFR conditions in fog. Fog may be more widespread Saturday night. Long Term...Expect mostly VFR. However MVFR/IFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags expected. Long Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA criteria. && .EQUIPMENT... The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter is off the air until further notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Pohl LONG TERM...Hawley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
907 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .UPDATE... 852 PM CDT The going forecast is trending along well and no major updates are needed at this time. Spotty showers are ongoing across the open waters of Lake Michigan in association with a band of warm advection centered at 700 mb. Seeing some ACCAS off to the west of our office, indicative of at least a bit of mid-level instability, at the tail end of this area of modest ascent. Can`t rule out a very isolated shower or two developing out of this mid-level cloud deck, but chances look to remain under 15% and don`t see a need to carry a weather mention at this point given a paucity of instability above 700-600 mb. Some hi-res guidance suggests the development of scattered showers very late tonight and into Saturday morning. This seems to be tied to another region of very modest warm advection near the 305-310 K theta surfaces. Moisture looks pretty marginal and thermodynamic profiles actually look capped to forcing under about 700 mb or so (where the bulk of the warm advection is occurring). We`ll continue to show some "silent" 10-15% PoPs along and north of I-80 Saturday morning as a result. Evening guidance continues to support breezy southwest winds developing mid-late morning tomorrow and nudged speeds up a hair in the evening update with occasional gusts to around 30 mph. Forecast soundings continue to appear capped to surface-based convection through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Given a lack of forcing mechanisms, the inherited dry forecast through Saturday evening looks good. Updated products have been transmitted. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... 252 PM CDT Through Saturday... There are no significant forecast concerns through Saturday afternoon, with the main item of note being very warm temperatures Saturday afternoon. The short-wave that produced a few sprinkles over the region this morning continues to progress southeast this afternoon. In the presence of weak instability, this wave produced enough forcing for a slightly agitated Cu field for parts of the area south of I-80. A rogue shower popped up over northern Livingston County out of the Cu field, though latest scans indicate it`s already weakening given weak shear and instability. Will monitor this area, but do not plan to add any mentionable PoPs to the gridded forecast, as this shower was most pronounced on satellite and still was very short lived. This evening and overnight will be quiet with steady south- southwesterly winds around 10 mph or less, featuring lows in the mid-upper 60s outside of Chicago and low 70s in/near downtown. Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a fairly stout upper low for this time of year gyrating into western Ontario. Our area will be south of a glancing blow of forcing from this wave. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate unfavorably dry profiles aloft and likelihood of capping even to elevated parcels. Showers and storms over the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Lakes may drift southeast toward the state line Saturday morning. However, given the aforementioned hostile environment over northern Illinois, suspect that any activity that survives will be decaying sprinkles/isolated light showers at most (with 12z ECMWF depiction Saturday AM deemed to be an outlier). Stuck with a dry official forecast, holding off any sprinkle mention for now. Expecting some mid-level cloud cover Saturday, perhaps peaking in the north in the morning, with scattered diurnal Cu in the afternoon. Unidirectional southwest flow ahead of cold front dropping south across Wisconsin will mean no low level convergence along with large scale forcing being displaced well to the north. Given these factors and narrow, skinny CAPE on soundings, kept a dry forecast through the afternoon. Drier and more well mixed profile on RAP soundings is overall preferred to unrealistic low level dew points on GFS and NAM. Thus, with any clouds not expected to impede warming, 925 mb temps peaking in low-mid 20s Celsius, and southwest winds gusting to around 25 mph, expecting highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (87-91 range). This setup appears favorable to yield dew points mixing out some, or at least not climbing during the afternoon, with primarily low-mid 60s F at peak heating. Therefore, despite the return of temps around 90, max heat indices will only be a few degrees higher than forecast highs, so not too uncomfortable for outdoor activities. Castro && .LONG TERM... 252 PM CDT Saturday night through Friday... Saturday night: A cold front associated with low pressure over Ontario will stall across the southern half of WI by Saturday evening. A weak mid-level wave passing over the stalled front combined with a modest increase in low-level flow will likely initiate scattered convection across the south half of WI during the evening. This activity may gradually drift south into the northern tier of counties around midnight, partially due to any resultant outflow boundaries from the convection. With minimal forcing in the area overnight and low-level flow nearly parallel to the boundary, any activity should dissipate while possibly reaching as far south as I-80. Am not expecting much coverage, with much of the area likely remaining dry. Some storms on the stronger side across WI may reach the state line before beginning the diminishing trend. Sunday: Conditions will be somewhat similar to Saturday, with capping likely inhibiting precip development through the day while SW flow maintains warmer conditions across the region. Afternoon temps around 90F are expected. Modest dew points in the mid 60s will limit oppressive heat index readings, with values likely in the low to possibly mid 90s. Sunday night through Monday night: Broad upper troughing will track eastward into the Upper MS Valley by Monday morning. An associated surface low moving across northwest WI and western Upper MI Sunday night will push a cold front across the CWA late Sunday night into Monday night. Much of the area will experience the frontal passage at a diurnally unfavorable time for convection, likely resulting in scattered showers with only embedded thunder through the morning into early afternoon. Overall, any given location will likely see around a six hour window of precip potential. There will also be a conditional chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon across much of the area as the upper trough lags the cold front. However, capping may prevent any convective initiation during this time. Tuesday through Thursday: An extended period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures looks likely during this time as somewhat stagnant mid-level flow across the CONUS places the region on the eastern extent of broad ridging across the Great Plains. This should keep the area far enough removed from any ring-of-fire activity on the periphery of the ridge. Kluber && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Overall minimal aviation weather concerns through the rest of the evening with gusty south to southwesterly winds subsiding. Modest warm advection to our north is resulting in the development of isolated to scattered showers across southeastern Wisconsin. Not expecting any direct impacts from this activity on our area TAF sites outside of a potential spit of rain this evening. Chances appear too low to warrant a VCSH mention at this juncture. Model guidance hints at the potential for some shower activity to develop Saturday morning in association with another region of modest warm advection. Guidance remains split regarding how much moisture will be available, which lowers our confidence in the precipitation potential. For the time being, will continue to advertise precipitation-free TAFs, but a few showers aren`t out of the realm of possibility. Will continue to monitor evening model guidance and adjust the TAFs as necessary. Surface winds will maintain a southwesterly direction on Saturday and will likely become a bit gustier compared to today. Expect occasional wind gusts into the 25-30 kt range as we mix into some stronger flow aloft. Favored direction of 220-240 should curtail any crosswind issues on E-W runways. A cold front will approach the region from the north Saturday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings appear capped to surface-based convection across our region through the day, but expect a broken line of thunderstorms to develop along the front across southern Wisconsin during the evening hours. This activity could sink south into northern Illinois late Saturday evening. Confidence was too low to introduce a precipitation mention as we expect convection to be on a weakening trend. Trends will be monitored, however, for a potential VCTS or VCSH in subsequent TAF issuances. Carlaw/Porterfield && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...10 AM Saturday to 9 PM Saturday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
304 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .DISCUSSION...Current observations are showing two separate things going on across southern Oregon and northern California. The first is that thunderstorms have developed just east of the Warner Mountains and extend northward into Lake County near Adel. These cells will continue this afternoon with rain and lightning possible. Severe weather, however, is really not expected today. The other scenario is that the MP 97 fire near Canyonville is producing smoke which is reducing visibilities downwind. So far, the visibilities, even at the 4 low passes north of Grants Pass on Interstate 5, are not enough to warrant a dense smoke advisory, but will need to continue monitoring this-- especially if the fire becomes plume-dominated once again. This smoke, however, has caused the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality to issue an Air Pollution advisory, which you can view via our Air Quality Alert (AQAMFR). The HRRR smoke model shows significant smoke entering the Rogue and Shasta Valleys west of the Cascades this evening, and smoke mixing down the mountains south of Crater Lake into Klamath County, including Klamath Falls later in the evening. The southern Oregon Coast (south of Pistol River) will also see some smoke return tonight as winds shift. Overall, don`t expect too much of a change in the pattern over the weekend. This pattern of hot and dry weather continues into next week. There are some pockets of moisture increasing precipitation chances, but it does not appear as if our instability and moisture line up super well. We`re keeping a 10 percent chance or less of precipitation across our area for this weekend. A frontal system tries to move into the Pacific Northwest by midweek, but this system will fizzle out by the time it reaches the coast. This front will work to bring temperatures a little bit lower than they were today, and will keep our "cooling trend" going for a bit longer. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...For the 26/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and over the coastal waters...Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog will burn off before noon, but is expected to return this evening and tonight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with the exception of areas affected by smoke from a wildfire burning near Canyonville. Smoke from this fire will reduce visibilities in areas to the south, including Grants Pass and KMFR in the Rogue Valley, and perhaps into KLMT and and portions of Siskiyou County. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities in these areas through tonight and portions of Friday, especially in the afternoon and early evening. -BPN && .MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Friday 26 July 2019...The thermal trough will weaken through today, then build again Sunday evening. Gales have diminished, yet winds will still be breezy and hazardous to smaller craft south of Cape Blanco through this evening. Very steep and hazardous seas are possible by Sunday afternoon and conditions hazardous to small craft will exist for most of the marine area. Model winds are in agreement for magnitude as they build again Sunday evening. Position is also in moderate agreement. This provides moderate confidence for the return of warning conditions for Hazardous seas south of Bookings. -Kilometers && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, 26 July 2019... Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon, mainly east of the Warner Mountains. Satellite imagery shows building cumulus fields over Modoc and Lake Counties, and given the latest model guidance, it still seems likely that a few isolated thunderstorms will develop in these areas later this afternoon and evening. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible farther west into Klamath and eastern Siskiyou counties, as shown in some of the higher resolution convective allowing models, but the dry air mass in place that far west will likely limit development. Otherwise, conditions today and Saturday should be very similar to yesterday, with hot and dry conditions and breezy afternoon winds. Despite improving overnight and early morning recoveries, the latest humidity guidance this afternoon shows distinctly drier daytime humidities Saturday and Sunday. This trend is resulting from drier air moving into the midlevels, which is then mixed down to the surface during the heat of the day. Combined with afternoon breezy winds, some areas will approach Red Flag criteria, namely in the Rogue, Shasta, and Scott Valleys, however these critical conditions are not expected to be met. It is also worth noting that the dry, unstable air mass could push Haines values to 6 over Lake and Modoc counties Sunday and Monday, with values of 5 for most locations elsewhere. As for smoke concerns, expect NW surface winds to transition to SW aloft as the east winds weaken through tonight. Low level smoke from the Milepost 97 Fire will move south and SE, while the higher portion of the smoke column should push out to the NE. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for PZZ376. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
939 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 The Flash Flood Watch for the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains has been cancelled early. The atmosphere has stabilized and heavy rain has ended across the high terrain for this evening, ending the flash flood threat. Also updated PoPs to account for ongoing precipitation activity, including waning of precip over the high terrain, and development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over El Paso and northern Pueblo counties. Storms are initiating along outflow boundaries and tapping into up to 500 j/kg CAPE. Given anomalously high TPW, expect heavy rain to be possible with this activity, in addition to cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph. Precipitation should come to an end around midnight. ~Line && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Currently... Scattered showers were noted over the mountains at 2 pm. A few of these showers were over the Spring burn scar. A couple of isolated storms were note over the lower elevations between Pueblo and Canon City. Otherwise the rest of the plains was dry. Sat pix show a classic example of a "dirty ridge" over the southwestern CONUS. Mid level anticyclonic gyre is clearly seen in the water vapor imagery rotating over the SW, with the gyre centered over the general 4 corners region. Quite a bit of moisture is embedded within this gyre per sat pix imgy and 12 UTC sounding data. CAPE over the region at this hour was minimal, especially over the mtns. A theta-e axis of about 1000 CAPE was noted over the plains extending from roughly KGLD sw`wd towards Kim. Rest of today into tonight.... Main concern will be locally heavy rain over the mountains, with the southern Sangres expected to receive the brunt of it per several HRRR runs. Best chance of this heavy rain is expected this evening after 7 pm and lasting into mid evening. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms will be possible over all of the higher terrain the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours. Given the NW aloft, storms will move parallel to the Sangres this afternoon and evening. After storms end this evening skies should clear out for the most part. Tomorrow... Expect to see a similar scenario to today precip-wise. NW flow aloft will continue and believe the heaviest precip will be once again over the southern Sangres. so Spring burn scar will be problematic once again. Flow at mid levels tomorrow will have a bit more of a westerly component to it at midlevel and this may allow for a slightly better chance of showers and storms over the plains late tomorrow afternoon. Later shifts may need to issue another Flash Flood watch for the burn scars for tomorrow. Max temps tomorrow will be similar to todays highs with generally low to mid 90s over the plains and 70s and 80s over the higher terrain. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Saturday night and Sunday...A relatively flat ridge over the desert southwest will retreat even further west to southern CA and NV over the weekend, as an upper disturbance crosses the northern Rockies. This disturbance will push a cold front south into eastern CO Sunday morning, but little cooling is expected with it. In fact, some drying with this northerly push should help limit the spread of convection, with just some scattered convection over the mts during the aftn and eve. Look for low temps in the mid 40s to around 50F for the high valleys Sat night, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Max temps on Sun will climb into the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Monday and Tuesday...The upper ridge redevelops and centers over the Four Corners on Mon, then over the NM and CO border on Tue. Temps start to creep upward, but models indicate that aftn and eve convection will most likely remain over the mts with mainly dry conditions for the plains. Expect highs around 80F for the high valleys both days, while the plains will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Mon, then 90s to near 100F for Tue. Wednesday through Friday...The ridge of high pressure slides east and centers over the OK and TX Panhandles for Wed and Thu, while a minor disturbance rotates north up across the Great Basin. The ridge then tries to push back west along the NM and CO border on Fri. Long range models show increased chances for pcpn across the forecast area all three days, with convection spreading to the eastern plains as well. Temps remain hot Wed and Thu with highs in the lower 80s for the high valleys and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains, then cool slightly on Fri with max temps around 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Taf sites will likely see the threat of showers and storms later this afternoon/evening and once again tomorrow afternoon/early evening which may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours as I do not expect any low cigs tonight. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LINE SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH