Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/22/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
649 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM (through Monday)...
18z surface analysis shows a very ill defined ridge positioned
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This feature was sandwiched
between a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians and a more
well defined front extending from central Indiana southwestward
through far northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Closer to
home, another warm and sticky day across central Alabama with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in most areas and dewpoints
in the lower to mid 70s.
As of early afternoon, radar was fairly active again with widely
scattered shra/tsra mainly west of a line from Anniston to
Childersburg to Montgomery. MLCAPE is slightly less today,
partially due to morning stratus and slower heating, and cells
have not been quite as robust today. Even so, PWATS are
approaching 2 inches (1.86" on the morning sounding) so will need
to monitor for heavy rainfall through this evening.
Expect generally diurnal convection to be on the wane quickly
this evening with a fairly quiet overnight period. Guidance is not
overly aggressive with fog/stratus tonight, but hard to shy away
from persistence. RAP guidance also shows low level condensation
pressure deficits below 10 millibars so at least patchy stratus
is likely.
The aforementioned surface front will make steady progress
southward tonight into Monday as an unusually strong shortwave
pushes across the Ohio Valley. Although the best surface
convergence is obviously along/just ahead of the front Monday
evening/night conditions will be quite favorable for scattered
shra/tsra across the area on Monday. Areal coverage will likely be
dependent on the amount of mixing and available CAPE with the NAM
looking overdone with its areal extent during the day tomorrow
especially south. Trended just slightly above the blended
guidance however.
15/CBD
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
/Issued at 0340 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/
On Monday night, the cold front will be approaching from the
northwest, providing a focus for additional convective
development. Rain chances should increase during the evening and
overnight hours with rain chances of 60 to 70 percent near and
north of I-20 through daybreak on Tuesday. While the southern half
of the forecast area appears to be in line for widespread showers
and storms on Tuesday afternoon, rainfall amounts along and north
of I-20 during the late morning and early afternoon will depend
on the timing of the cold front. Models have trended a touch
faster with the front which suggests the bulk of the rain will be
focused south of I-20.
Much drier air will be advected in behind the front for Wednesday
and Thursday with 20-30 percent rain chances confined to our
southeastern counties, just northwest of the stalling front.
Models are in worse agreement regarding the speed of the moisture
recovery for Friday and Saturday. Rain chances have been nudged
downward as a hedge between the dry ECMWF and rather wet GFS.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
We`ve varied conditions as of 23:40Z/6:40PM, ranging from VFR
clouds to slow-moving vicinity showers & storms. Such has been
reflected at select terminals to start the TAF period, with a
trend toward nil convective mentions as diurnal activity wanes by
mid-evening, or so. Overnight/early Monday, MVFR clouds could be
affecting several terminals, and have added a TEMPO period of IFR
at TCL-EET. We`ll monitor trends and adjust as necessary. Surface
winds will be calm to very light tonight.
Through the rest of Monday, VFR conditions are forecast outside of
diurnal showers & storms. A PROB30 group has been carried for all
terminals for convective activity. This will be refined as we get
closer to the late morning to afternoon time frame.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will mostly dissipate this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. A cold front will
approach the region from the north Monday evening. Ahead of the
front, more numerous showers and storms will overspread central
Alabama Monday afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms may
linger into Tuesday as the front slowly pushes across the area.
With a rather moist airmass in place, minimum relative humidity
values will remain well above critical thresholds through Tuesday.
Somewhat drier air will begin to move into the area by mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 72 88 71 81 63 / 30 60 60 50 10
Anniston 72 87 72 81 65 / 30 50 60 70 10
Birmingham 74 90 72 83 65 / 30 60 60 60 10
Tuscaloosa 73 89 73 84 66 / 40 50 60 50 10
Calera 72 88 71 82 66 / 20 50 60 70 10
Auburn 72 89 72 83 67 / 20 30 40 80 30
Montgomery 73 92 73 83 67 / 20 40 40 80 30
Troy 71 90 72 86 68 / 20 40 30 80 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1051 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine tonight
into Monday. Low pressure will move along the front Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region
Tuesday night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1045 PM Update...
Radar showed the last batch of showers near the Baxter State
Park region. These showers are expected to dissipate over the
next few hrs as they move east. Tweaked the hrly temps to match
the latest obs. Kept the mention of patchy fog in the forecast
for the early morning hrs w/partial clearing and light winds.
HRRR and NNM guidance matching up close to what the radar was
showing.
Previous Discussion...
An upper level disturbance will cross the region early tonight
with isolated showers possible. The cold front which crossed the
region today will stall across the Gulf of Maine tonight into
Monday. After any evening showers, party cloudy/mostly clear
skies are expected overnight. Low level moisture and light winds
could also allow patchy fog development overnight. High
pressure will cross the region early Monday. Low pressure will
track toward southern New England along the stalled cold front
later Monday. After a mostly sunny morning, clouds will increase
during the afternoon in advance of the approaching low. Showers
will also begin to expand northeast across the forecast area
during the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 50 to the mid 50s north, to around 60 to the lower 60s
Downeast. High temperatures Monday will range from the lower to
mid 70s north, to the upper 70s to around 80 Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The frontal wave will cause precip to break out towards the
coast on Monday night and spread northward overnight. Felt
confident enough to go with categorical pops for southern and
central Penobscot County as well as all of Hancock and
Washington counties. Confidence remains much lower towards
northern Aroostook County and will only assign chance pops.
Storm total QPF could total up to three quarters of an inch
along the coast, but amounts will decrease northward to a few
hundredths of an inch in the Saint John Valley and much of that
will be with showers on Tuesday afternoon. Do not expect any
thunderstorms with the wave passing to the south, but humidity
is such that some patchy fog can be expected in the southern
half of the forecast area Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Drier air and less cloud cover gradually arrives during
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The cooler air mass and cloud cover
will produce highs in the lower 70s on Tuesday. Decreasing
cloud cover and light winds will allow lows to drop into the 40s
in the Allagash on Tuesday night. Other locations will measure
lows in the low to mid 50s. The upper trough remains in place
Wednesday with the cool air mass. Can`t rule out a few light
afternoon showers, but will maintain low PoPs for now. Highs
will remain below normal on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend for Wednesday night into the weekend will be for the
cool upper trough to gradually transition to upper level ridging
and influence of the Bermuda High. Dry conditions are expected.
Temperatures and humidity will gradually rise from seasonable
to above normal by the weekend. Light pressure gradients will
ensure that daily sea breeze processes occur along the coast.
The increasing humidity towards the weekend will up the risk of
coastal fog late at night into early mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Isolated showers are possible this evening.
Generally expect VFR conditions tonight through Monday. However,
variable conditions are possible with any fog overnight. Local
MVFR conditions could also occur with showers across southwest
portions of the forecast area later Monday afternoon.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night - Tuesday...MVFR tempo IFR conditions are expected
for sites south of HUL, especially at BHB. These restrictions
will be due to vis in rain as well as cigs.
Wednesday - Friday... Generally VFR conditions are expected
with the possible exception of IFR cigs/vis at night at
BHB, mostly later in the week. Winds will be light at all sites
for the entire period.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Monday. Visibilities could be reduced in
any fog or showers this evening. Showers are possible again
later Monday afternoon.
SHORT TERM: Stable summer conditions over the cold waters
continue. Adjusted NWP guidance downward. No significant winds
or seas are expected during this forecast period. Fog is
possible Monday night into Tuesday and will become increasingly
likely again towards Saturday and Sunday as more humid air
circulates around the Bermuda High.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/Through Sunrise Tuesday/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking inland from the Gulf
Coast this afternoon have remained southeast of our region, but
have resulted in some high clouds filtering in across Central
Texas. Otherwise, no impacts are expected and the activity will
continue to dissipate this evening. Another mild night is expected
tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s and light southerly
winds.
The anticipated summertime cold front is currently draped across
the Texas Panhandle, extending northeastward across Oklahoma and
towards the Plains. The front will progress southeastward
overnight and approach the Red River by Monday morning. The latest
high res guidance develops some light showers along the front
early Monday morning, but at this time I only opted to paint
silent 10% PoPs along the Red River. Variable to southwesterly
winds are expected ahead of the cold front prior to northerly
winds arriving behind the front. The RAP and NAM are in agreement
on the cold front approaching the I-20 corridor by late Monday
morning, but "cold air" advection would still be delayed by a few
hours and result in another hot day with highs in the mid to upper
90s across North Texas. Southwesterly winds may also aid in
compressional warming across Central Texas Monday afternoon,
allowing temperatures to warm close to the century mark. We`ll
continue to monitor the progression on the front and the potential
impact to high temperatures.
The best potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the front remains to be during the afternoon and overnight hours.
Upper level forcing will remain well to the northeast, but the
front should provide enough lift to generate activity as it treks
southeastward. Strong gusty winds will be a threat given the
inverted-V profiles revealed in forecast soundings. Rain chances
should end Monday night across North Texas, but may linger into
early Tuesday morning across Central Texas. Otherwise, low
temperatures Monday night will be a few degrees cooler in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
Garcia
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Concerns: Wind shift, potential for showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon/evening.
VFR and southerly winds will prevail through tomorrow morning ahead
of a summertime cold front, which is slowly progressing southward
across the Plains this afternoon. Latest guidance keeps MVFR
ceilings south of ACT early Monday morning. Winds will initially
veer to westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front by mid morning,
but expect northerly winds to prevail across the Metroplex sites
by early afternoon and late afternoon/evening at Waco. Scattered
SHRA and TSRA will be possible after 18Z at the Metroplex sites
and after 21Z for ACT, but confidence remains low to include a
mention of VCTS at this time.
Garcia
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/
/Tuesday Onward/
Following Monday`s cold front, conditions will be noticeably
cooler and drier on Tuesday. In the morning, a few straggling
showers may still exist across our far southern zones, although
this activity is expected to taper off no later than noon. Some
lingering post-frontal cloud cover may exist across Central Texas
throughout the day, also contributing to slightly cooler
temperatures. A steady north breeze will advect drier air into the
area during the remainder of the day, while temperatures likely
only climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Wednesday and Thursday may be the most pleasant days of the week
owing to the arrival of lower dewpoints, mostly in the 50s. 50s
dewpoints are typically hard to come by in this part of the
country during mid summer, but it will be a welcome relief from
the rather humid summer we`ve experienced thus far. When coupled
with high temperatures several degrees below normal, it should be
a rather pleasant week by late July standards. The drier air will
also allow low temperatures to fall into the 60s both days. It
appears daily record lows at DFW and Waco won`t quite be touched,
but we could come within a couple of degrees.
A gradual warming trend will occur later in the week and into next
weekend as winds return to the southeast or south. Higher
dewpoints will make a return, and temperatures will climb back a
bit closer to normal in the mid 90s. However, the upper ridge is
expected to remain to our west, which may allow some isolated
storm chances to resume later next weekend as moisture returns.
-Stalley
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 96 75 89 69 / 0 30 20 5 0
Waco 76 98 75 91 68 / 0 10 40 10 5
Paris 74 92 71 86 64 / 0 30 20 5 0
Denton 75 95 73 89 67 / 0 30 20 5 0
McKinney 75 95 74 89 67 / 0 30 20 5 0
Dallas 79 98 76 90 70 / 0 30 20 5 0
Terrell 75 97 74 91 68 / 0 20 30 5 0
Corsicana 76 96 74 87 66 / 0 10 40 10 5
Temple 74 97 74 90 68 / 0 5 50 20 10
Mineral Wells 74 95 71 88 65 / 0 30 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
22/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
729 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated quasi-zonal flow across the
northern CONUS with an upstream shortwave trough over eastern MT and
ND. A mid/upper level low was located over Hudson Bay with a
shortwave on its flank dropping southeast through northern Ontario.
At the surface, high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba into the northern Plains was building eastward into the
northern Great Lakes bringing northern winds into Upper Michigan
with cooler drier air. Pesky cu field across Upper Mi limiting
insolation today and keeping temps a bit cooler than expected.
Readings have ranged from the low 60s right along the Lake Superior
shore to the mid to upper 70s far south and southeast.
Tonight, dissipating cu field will allow for favorable radiational
cooling conditions tonight. Expect min temps to drop into the mid
40s to around 50F over the interior while temps remain in the mid to
upper 50s near the Great Lakes. Shortwave trough from the northern
Plains passing through the area later tonight will have little or no
impact on weather given the dry air mass in place.
Monday, as the Plains shortwave trough passes se of the area a nw
flow aloft will develop across the area between the trough to the
east and the amplifying ridge over the Rockies. Sfc high pressure
and associated anticyclonic flow across the area will keep
conditions dry. Forecast soundings and upstream visible satellite
suggest there will be some cu development on Monday, but it may not
be as extensive as today given the potential for lowering of dew
points through the day through diurnal mixing. Using the mixed dew
point tool decided to fcst dewpoints a bit blo MOS guidance and
model blends, generally lowering values into the lower to mid 40s
across the interior. This combined with fcst highs in the mid to
upper should yield minimum RH values right around 30 pct over much
of the interior and perhaps lower than 30 pct at a few locations.
North to northwest winds gusting at or above 20 mph could result in
elevated wildfire concerns, especially for locations that missed out
on the wetting rains of the past couple of weeks.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019
The early portions of this forecast period will be dominated by
passing high pressure and NW flow. Normal to perhaps slightly below
temperatures with an extended period of dry weather will start the
week with the next legitimate shot at precip Friday into Saturday.
High pressure exits on Thursday with return southerly flow, and
associated warmup expected through the weekend.
As a low pressure passes well to the northeast across Hudson Bay on
Tuesday, a shortwave between the low and a central CONUS high
pressure will pass across the Upper Great Lakes. Models indicate a
chance for showers overnight Mon into Tuesday, however forcing and
moisture fall off quickly as they approach the UP, so have kept
slight chances over far western UP and Lake Superior only. Being
between a low and high pressure will also allow some deeper mixing
and gusty winds at times. There are some concerns wrt fire weather
as dry conditions have prevailed for most of the summer. Recent
precipitation will likely dry out of the fine fuels relatively
quickly. As mentioned in previous forecast, HDW index shows a steady
increase into mid-week across Upper Michigan and will bear keeping
an eye on this week.
For Wednesday and Thursday, things appear to remain dry, though with
high pressure progressing to the Ohio River Valley, southerly return
flow will slowly return. High temperatures will likely return to the
mid 80s for all of Upper Michigan, except for along Lake Michigan
with southern winds off the lake.
Our next precipitation chances comes on Friday as a shortwave digs
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region. A weak
cold front will drag across the UP Friday as a ridge across the
desert SW facilitates low-level convergence and moisture flux at
850mb in the Upper Midwest. GFS brings precipitation across the UP a
little faster in this run, reaching the western UP on Thursday night
around midnight. ECMWF hold off 6-12 hours reaching the UP Friday
morning as the GEM comes in the early afternoon. With these
discrepancies, chance PoPs remain until timing becomes a little bit
more clear. Any showers will likely linger through Saturday, as GEM
and ECMWF begin to hint at another shortwave approaching the Upper
Great Lakes region for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019
Some fog may once again visit the KIWD terminal overnight, but
isn`t expected to be as dense as it was early this morning. VFR
conditions are expected to otherwise prevail at all three
terminals through the TAF period. Northerly winds still gusting at
KSAW as of this writing will subside as the evening continues,
with light and variable to calm winds expected overnight at the
three terminals. Look for NE winds to dominate tomorrow coupled
with another afternoon fair weather CU field developing.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019
Winds below 20 knots are expected through much of the week under
prevailing high pressure. The approach of a sfc trough late in the
week (Thu night into Fri) will result in an increase of southwest
winds to perhaps 25 knots at that time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Latest RAP model shows broad Atlantic high pressure stretching
west across most of the Gulf of Mexico through Mon...as it/s axis
slips from north-central to south-central FL by late in the day.
This will maintain abundant moisture...PWAT values of 1.9 to 2
plus inches...and a predominately southeasterly flow pattern.
Although afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to onshore near the
coast.
It was another active day with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
resulting in 40 to 50 mph wind gusts...some downed trees...and
minor flooding. The strongest storms have dissipated as they moved
offshore but isolated storms along with areas of rain/showers are
ongoing and will continue for the next couple of hours. Will make
some minor updates to the forecasts shortly to reflect near term
conditions. Deep moisture along with a southeast flow pattern and
afternoon sea breezes Mon will again result in scattered to
numerous strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
22/00z TAFs. BKN-OVC mid and high clouds as TSRA/SHRA with MVFR
conditions exit the terminals by 02-03Z. VFR over night with
light VRBL/E winds. Winds become SE then SW to W during Mon.
Anticipate another day of SCT-NMRS TSRA with MVFR/IFR conditions
and gusty winds...AFT 17-20Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet...except locally higher
in and near thunderstorms. A high pressure ridge axis across
central FL and westward over the Gulf sinks down into far south FL
by Tue and resides there through the week - a southeast flow
pattern with afternoon sea breezes shifts to a southwest pattern.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 75 91 76 90 / 30 40 20 50
FMY 74 92 75 90 / 30 60 30 50
GIF 73 93 74 92 / 30 70 20 70
SRQ 74 91 75 90 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 72 92 73 91 / 30 40 20 50
SPG 76 91 76 90 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
19Z water vapor and profiler data show a MCV along the KS/NEB state
line over Republic CO while synoptically a shortwave was moving into
the Upper Midwest. Upper ridging was gradually strengthening over
the desert southwest and four corners region. At the surface, a
couple outflow boundaries had moved into the area. At 19Z, this
boundary appeared to be located from near Ottawa to near Abilene.
Although it is not that well defined. Because of the outflow
boundary, observations and model progs show the best instability
setting up across the southern portions of the forecast area,
generally south of Interstate 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
For this afternoon and this evening, models have been consistent in
redeveloping convection over the area as the boundary layer becomes
more unstable. While the CAMs have not had the best handle on the
showers and storms from this morning, they have been consistent in
developing storms between 4 and 6 PM. The current thinking is storms
will form over north central KS in the vicinity of the MCV with
development favored into east central KS along the instability axis.
Deep layer shear is only forecast to be around 25KT or 30KT, but
hodographs show a nice shape with easterly surface winds. So there
does appear to be an organized severe weather risk, but think the
SWODY1 outlook is a little to far north with the slight risk up to
the NEB state line. Based on the RAP and NAM instability progs, the
corridor for severe weather may be more from Minneapolis to Ottawa.
If a supercell storm can maintain a reasonable mesocyclone, there
could be a large hail risk. But with freezing levels nearly 15 KFT,
the more likely concerns are for damaging winds and torrential
rainfall. Forecast soundings show deep warm layers within the cloud
while precipital water values approach 2.5 inches. This looks to
be a favorable setup for efficient rain production and storm
motions may only be 10KT to 20KT. So there is the potential for an
isolated location to get a lot of rain in a short period of time.
Unfortunately confidence in where this may happen in very low.
Considered putting out a flash flood watch through this evening,
but given this uncertainty and that the likely area to see rain
hasn`t had any precip in several days with flash flood guidance up
to 3 inches in an hour, felt the risk was not widespread enough
to warrant a watch.
Models show the upper wave exiting the forecast area by 12Z Monday,
so think much if not all the precip will be over by Monday morning.
Lows are expected to fall into the 60s for most areas while the
surface gradient keeps enough mixing to prevent temps from bottoming
out. Much cooler and pleasant temperatures are expected on Monday
with highs around 80. The best part will be dryer air as dewpoints
stay in the lower and middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
For Monday night through next weekend, Models amplify the upper
ridge to the west through Tuesday. This is expected to keep
northerly upper flow over the central plains and the surface ridge
in place until it starts to break down on Wednesday. By mod week,
the pattern becomes less amplified wile the mean westerlies remain
across the northern tier of the country. So precip chances become a
little more dependent on mesoscale features. For now with no obvious
forcing for precip, the forecast is dry through the weekend. With
the surface ridge weakening and southerly low level flow returning
on Thursday, temps should trend warmer. Models show the warm temps
advecting back into the plains by Sunday when highs could be back
into the middle 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
Main challenge is figuring out where TS will go. Latest ons show
the best instability has developed south of the terminals and many
of the CAMs now show TS to be more likely south of I-70. Because
of this will remove the TEMPO and only go with a VCTS thinking the
stronger storms will remain south of the airports. There looks to
be a brief period of MVFR CIGS into the night before dry air works
in from the south. Think VFR conditions will prevail by sunrise
and through the day Monday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ058-
059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Currently monitoring a few clusters of strong/marginally-severe
thunderstorms moving southeast across southeastern KS. Also
watching more isolated convection to the west of Tulsa that has
formed along a weak pre-frontal convergence line. Storm
extrapolation along with recent HRRR output would put the best
chances of storms across far northeast OK over the next several
hours, and eventually into parts of northwest AR. It`s possible
that the stronger storms could produce gusty winds and perhaps
some hail, although expect a weakening trend generally after
midnight.
Have made some near term adjustments to PoPs, otherwise forecast
is in good shape.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 86 65 85 / 50 20 0 0
FSM 74 89 67 86 / 30 40 20 0
MLC 73 88 66 85 / 20 20 10 0
BVO 72 84 60 83 / 60 30 0 0
FYV 71 83 59 81 / 50 40 10 0
BYV 70 84 61 82 / 70 50 10 0
MKO 72 86 65 84 / 30 30 10 0
MIO 71 83 62 83 / 80 40 0 0
F10 73 87 65 85 / 20 20 10 0
HHW 72 92 68 86 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18