Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/20/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
The latest model runs and trends continue to shift a bit further
south with precipiation tonight. Therefore, shifted the chances
for thunderstorms further south.
UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
No major changes this evening. The latest CAM model output
continues to show thunderstorms developing across southern North
Dakota after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Quiet afternoon with weak surface high pressure over eastern
Montana. A 700 mb shortwave is forecast to eject off the Bighorn
Mountains towards the Black Hills this evening. Strong mid level
frontogenesis and moisture transport ahead of the wave should
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over northwest South
Dakota into southwest North Dakota near or shortly after sunset.
Overall, this setup appears similar to what happened last night,
just shifted a bit farther south. Forecast MUCAPE from the RAP is
generally less than 1000 J/kg on this side of the South Dakota
border, but you don`t have to go too much farther south to reach
over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and last night, the northern extent of the
instability gradient was placed too far south by model guidance.
Deep layer shear remains very impressive, with 60-75 kts bulk shear
in the 0-6 km layer. Given this amount of shear, a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, though the most unstable air is expected to
remain south of the ND/SD border. Think that the current suite of
CAM guidance reflectivity may be just a bit underdone in both
coverage and intensity.
Scattered showers and storms will linger across south central and
southeast North Dakota Saturday morning as the mid level wave tracks
eastward. The air mass that settles in behind the wave will be
characterized by weak surface flow and slightly cooler temperatures.
An elongated west-to-east oriented 500 mb trough with strong
curvature vorticity is forecast to sag down from Canada Saturday
afternoon. Some CAMs suggest that this trough may produce isolated
afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms across far north central
North Dakota.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Global models are in agreement that an amplified shortwave will
approach the Northern Plains Saturday night. Despite building
surface high pressure and a drier boundary layer, think there will
be enough forcing to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms as this feature moves through late Saturday into
Sunday. A strong storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon in a low
CAPE/high shear environment.
The synoptic pattern for early to mid next week calls for a highly
amplified upper ridge over the Rockies and surface high pressure
over the Great Plains. This will promote warmer temperatures, with
highs generally in the 80s. The position of the upper ridge places
the Northern Plains under northwest flow aloft. This is a favorable
setup for diurnal showers and storms, but predictability is too low
at this time to add a mention to the forecast on any given day.
Shower and storm chances do increase by the end of next week as a
strong upper level shortwave moves across Canada, flattening the
upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern
ND tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Quiet conditions tonight as a very warm airmass will stay over
western Kansas. 850 mb winds increase to 45-50 kts combining with
around 30 (C) 850 temps should keep overnight lows around the
lower to mid 70s.
Saturday should be our last day of 100 degree weather in southwest
Kansas for a while as a strong cold front will be entering the
northwest part of the state through the mid afternoon. Winds ahead
of the front should be in a south to southwest direction and both
the RAP and NAM models are suggesting compressional heating ahead
of the front especially for areas west of a Garden City to Liberal
line. It`s not out of the question we could see temperatures near
105 in those areas. Both models are fairly quick with the frontal
movement that it would break the CAP by the late afternoon...but
I`m more inclined to hold off the thunderstorm development until
the evening hours.
Thunderstorms will develop most likely post frontal as the cold
front moves through western Kansas during the evening. There
should be sufficient moisture and CAPE that some of these storms
could produce strong winds. Best chance for storms looks to stay
along and north of an Elkhart to Hays line.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Temperatures Sunday will be largely dependent on how far the cold
air sinks to the south and length of cloud cover/isolated
thunderstorms through the day. Upper level shortwave moves through
western Kansas mid Sunday morning through the early afternoon
which will keep the chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms
around mainly in our northern zones. This should push the front at
least to the Oklahoma border. There does look like some recovery
from the cloud cover and cold air will be present in our west and
areas along the Oklahoma border where temperatures will reach into
the upper 80s to near 90. Meanwhile the areas under clouds and
rain through the day along with the coldest air advection should
stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Monday northerly flow should keep temperatures cool through the
morning and then a high pressure from Nebraska should move in
giving us northeast winds through the day and a mixture of sun and
clouds. Temperatures through the area should be refreshing in the
low to middle 80s.
Overall through the rest of the week the 5950 dm ridge to our west
will stay primarily in the 4 corners region which should keep the
flow aloft more out of the north. 850 mb temperatures don`t show
great signs of heating back up until next Friday so overall high
temperatures should stay near seasonable levels for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Focus on this TAF cycle is the persistent breezy overnight winds
and potential for wind shear in the lowest couple of kft. A dry
downslope/subsident regime will promote VFR conditions with
respect to vsby and cigs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 102 68 84 / 0 10 20 20
GCK 73 105 65 82 / 0 10 30 20
EHA 75 105 64 84 / 10 10 30 20
LBL 75 105 66 84 / 0 10 20 20
HYS 75 102 67 79 / 0 10 30 40
P28 76 104 74 94 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
641 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Main focus is on potential for significant severe weather this
evening.
Latest surface observations as of 20 UTC indicated surface warm
front making slow progress northward ahead of developing surface
wave currently over southwest Minnesota. Warm front stretched from
near Sheboygan to near Stevene Point to LaCrosse. Warm front has
been a bit slower moving northward than previously forecast.
Meanwhiile, upstream convection has rapidly developed near and
just northeast of surface low pressure system. Discrete SC
structures and small line segments already taking shape southwest
of DLH to near Alexandria Minnesota. Convection already starting
to enter far northwest Wisconsin northwest of Hayward. Appears
active convection will start to impact the far northwest portion
of the forercast area by 22-23 UTC which is a little sooner than
previous CAM forecasts. CAMS,particularly the HRRR, have been
very consistent in convection growing upscale to impressive QLCS
and tracking it across the northcentral portion of the forecast
area. However latest few HRRR runs have been a bit further south
with the deep convection which seems to fit the latest radar and
satellite observations. Deep layer shear over the northern half of
the forecast area is impressive especially given the degree of
instablity currently situated over the southern half of Minnesota
and over the southwest half of Wisconsin. MLCAPES are well over
4000 J/kg in this area and the instablity continues to move slowly
northward ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The
combination of 0-6 km shear greater than 40-45 kts and instablity
certainly favors initially discrete SC storms over central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin capable of very large hail,
significant damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. There is
some uncertainty as to how quickly the convection can grow upscale
into large bowing line segment before impacting northcentral
Wisconsin. Another complicating factor is that the airmass over
far northern Wisconsin is still not as unstable as surface Tds are
still only in the mid-upper 50s. Thus, the greatest severe
weather threat may end up shifting a little further south. Given
the amount of 0-3 km shear, possibity of embedded weak tornadoes
within organized QLCS is also possible especially over northcentral
part of the forecast area.
ST forecast guidance has been pretty consistent on moving
convective activity east of the area around midnight.
Saturday, still somewhat uncertain for severe potential. Surface
boundary will likely extend somewhere over the central portion of
the forecast area. Models suggest another weak impulse make
interact with that boundary during the afterenoon hours which may
kick off additional convection. At this time, a slight risk for
the southern portion still seems warranted but will need to see
how overnight convection plays out as atmosphere may be pretty
worked over. Certainly will be noticably cooler for Saturday with
clouds and northerly winds especially north of I29.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
The main highlights from this forecast period are the precip
trends for Saturday night into Sunday and the upper-level pattern
change that will bring drier conditions and near seasonal
temperatures to the area.
Saturday night into Sunday...A nearly stationary frontal boundary
will propagate south over Wisconsin on Saturday. By Saturday
evening, a surface high pressure system will be moving into the
Upper Mississippi Valley helping to push the slow frontal boundary
south out of the forecast area. Model guidance indicates the main
axis of showers and storms will ride along this front, with less
significant precipitation trailing behind it. The possibility for
storms over the forecast area late Saturday evening and night
will be on the decrease, as instability and lapse rates decrease
across the forecast area as the front moves south. It is possible
for some of the trailing precipitation to stick around across
central and east-central Wisconsin into Sunday morning.
Rest of the extended...The upper-level pattern will begin to
change on Sunday evening over the Upper Mississippi Valley to a
northwest mean flow. At the same time, a strong ridge of high
pressure over the Northern Plains will continue to build. The
northwest flow aloft and a surface high pressure moving into the
Northern Plains from Canada will keep the forecast area dry
through the rest of the extended. There are some hints of a
shortwave impacting the area on Wednesday that could bring the
next chance for showers and storms, however, much uncertainty
remains with this feature. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
A mesoscale convective system is currently developing across
northwest Wisconsin and is forecast to dive southeast through all
of the TAF sites during the evening hours. This complex is
expected to bring mainly high winds and heavy rain, however
isolated tornadoes and large hail are also possible. The complex
is expected to reach RHI around 00Z, AUW/CWA just after 01Z,
KGRB/KATW/KOSH just after 03Z and KMTW after 04Z.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to end during the
overnight with relatively benign conditions through the morning
hours on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible on
Saturday, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin.
However there is quite a bit of model uncertainty with some models
keeping the activity south of the TAF sites. Therefore will leave
out of the current set of TAFs.
.KOSH...Southerly winds less than 10 knots this evening. Medium
confidence in TSRA impacting KOSH between 03-06Z this evening.
These thunderstorms could be strong to severe as they hit the
airport with damaging winds and heavy rain. Isolated tornadoes and
large hail are also possible. Introduced a prevailing group for
TSRA with northwest wind potential of 30 knots impacting the
terminal. Most favorable timing for thunderstorm activity Saturday
afternoon is between 17-23Z Saturday if it occurs.
Windshifts of interest include...potential for abrupt wind shift
to northwest due to thunderstorm winds at around 03Z. Low
confidence in wind direction post thunderstorm activity tonight,
current forecast keeps winds southwest.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ013-020-021-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019
...Cooler weather tomorrow with storms by later in the afternoon...
Currently, it was hot over the forecast area at 2 pm. COS already
tied their record high temp at 97 and we reached 103 in Pueblo.
Weather stations all along the lower ark rvr valley are all above
100F (108 at Lamar). Valleys were quite warm with mid 80s in the San
Luis Valley (SLV) and parts of the upper ark rvr valley. Except for
a few flat cumulus clouds, skies were sunny over the region.
Rest of today into Tonight...
It will continue to be dry across the region. Although the hi res
guidance is showing some low end qpf in some locations, I believe
this will mainly be virga at best. The only exception may be up in
NW Teller county where some light qpf will be possible early this
evening. With no outflows over the region, temps tonight will
remain quite warm. with lows on reaching into the 60s to around 70F
on the plains, 40s and 50s in the mtns.
Tomorrow...
Relief comes our way in the form of a cool front. Actual front
should come down the plains during the 12Z-15 UTC time frame with
increasing northerly winds and increasing low level moisture.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely start to ramp up along the
east facing slopes of the mtns by early afternoon, with the most
concentrated activity over the greater Pikes Peak region by later
tin the afternoon. 18 UTC run of the HRRR is now breaking out some
isolated tsra over the plains during the afternoon and have
introduced some low end pops over the plains during this period. By
mid to late afternoon, gusty NE winds will be likely over the plains
with strongest winds mainly along and north of US 50.
Max temps will once again be rather warm, with readings in the 90s
to lower 100s across the plains. The warmest readings should occur
over the far eastern plains out along the KS border. A good part of
EL Pas county should be in the 80s to lower 90s.
The mountains should also see quite a few showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow. Likewise, we are going to have to keep an eye on all of
the burn scars (including Waldo) for possible flash flooding during
the afternoon time period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Saturday night...
A subtle shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies will
deepen a surface low over far southeast Colorado and send a cold
front down the eastern Colorado plains by the early evening. The
upper level feature will draw increased deep layer moisture over
Colorado. Additionally, low level moisture will increase
considerably behind the front as humid air from the midwest wraps
around the surface low, raising dew points into the 50s to low 60s
across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains by evening. As
discussed earlier, thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
during the afternoon in response to daytime heating and upper
forcing associated with the shortwave. Multicellular thunderstorm
activity will progress east across the I-25 corridor and across
the eastern plains during the early evening under the influence of
continued shortwave forcing and moistening atmosphere. Although
deep layer shear will only be around 30 knots, steep low level
lapse rates and increased moisture yielding moderate levels of
CAPE should allow for some small hail and strong to low end severe
wind gusts. Storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall
which will put burn scars at risk, but quick motion will limit
the threat somewhat. Activity will quickly push east, clearing the
CO/KS border around or shortly after midnight.
Sunday - Friday...
The upper level ridge will expand over the southwest US during the
rest of the long term, centering itself over Arizona. This puts
Colorado on the northeast side of the ridge, leading to weak
northwest flow over the state. Moisture will continuously wrap
around the high and into Colorado, resulting in normal to above
normal TPW across the forecast area. Strong heating under the ridge
each day plus the abundant moisture will result in daily scattered
to widespread afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances over most
of the high terrain. Similar to last week, the I-25 corridor to the
CO/KS border will be progressively drier as steering from the
mountains will be weak. Precip chances east of the mountains will
depend mostly on initiation along outflow boundaries emanating from
the mountain storms. Sunday may be the exception, when mid to upper
level flow will still be weak-moderate and westerly before the
ridge really builds. The main threat with all storms during this
period will be locally heavy rainfall over a recent burn scar
(given slow movement and favorable moisture), along with strong
but sub-severe wind gusts under downdrafts and behind outflow
boundaries. CAPE in the 500-1000 range and deep shear less than 30
knots should preclude a severe weather threat.
Temperatures behind the weekend system will be considerably
cooler, with highs in the 80s across the plains and high valleys,
Thereafter, temperatures will warm back into the mid 90s across the
plains and mid to upper 80s in the high valleys and Colorado
Springs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019
VFR next 21 hours at all 3 taf sites. Thunderstorms may occur over
KPUB and KCOS tomorrow later in the afternoon bringing potentially
very gusty winds and brief periods of MVFR conditions due to low
cigs and locally heavy rain along with the possibility of some
blowing dust. Winds tomorrow morning will be from a NW component in
the morning at KPUB and KCOS becoming NE`erly in the afternoon.
Synoptic winds will be gusty at times.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...HODANISH