Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/17/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
708 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Kept trends of previous TAF set largely intact. SE breezes will diminish this evening, then return by mid-morning Wednesday at similar levels to today. RAP BUFKIT forecast soundings and statistical guidance consistent in suggesting that MVFR cloud deck will form around an inversion at 025-030, with ceiling likely at least some of the time after midnight. This deck should lift/scatter out as daytime heating kicks back in. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will be the rule for the RGV throughout the short term period maintaining the hot, stable and humid conditions through Wed Night. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift eastwards a bit into Wed/Wed Night. But overall deep layer moisture levels will remain very limited over the RGV maintaining single digit pops. MAV/MET and ECMWF temp guidance is in very good agreement for maxes/mins through tomorrow night and will go close to a model blend for temps throughout the short term. Surface dewpoints will remain low enough to hold down the heat index values generally below Heat Advisory criteria. The exception will be the far western areas near the Falcon Reservoir which may briefly reach Advisory criteria for a couple of hours. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The long term starts with high pressure still in control for much of the region. Southerly or southeasterly winds will be somewhat elevated with breezy conditions expected as high pressure remains in place downstream and low pressure upstream. Sea breezes will likely develop each day and move inland at least to the HWY 77 corridor during the afternoon hours, however, limited moisture will be in place so expected only silent 10s at best. The strong high aloft will build across much of the southern tier US bringing continued hot conditions. In time, a weakness begin to develop later on in the period early next week. A cold front will begin to slide southward across the southeast US early next week in wake of the weakness. Most models show this boundary moving southward across central Texas and even into central GOMEX by the end of the period. With the low in the mid levels/thicknesses as well as a slight uptick in POPs/Clouds with the front expect temperatures to be held down to at least average if not slightly below in some areas. MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday Night): SCEC conditions have persisted across the Bay and Gulf waters this afternoon due to a pretty brisk PGF near the coastline. SCEC conditions will likely persist on through the short term period mainly for gusty SE winds. However, sustained SCA conditions are not expected through Wed Night. (Thursday through Tuesday): The short term pattern will mostly continue into the long term with 2 to 4 feet wave heights and cautionary wording winds gusts along the laguna and 0-20nm/near shore waters. Toward the end of the period there may be an increase in showers and storms as a cold front moves into the northern gulf. Confidence is fairly low in the rain chances later in the period, however, any convection will likely cause some localized higher winds and seas. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-Schroeder/56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Next round of showers and thunderstorms tied to remnants of Post T.C. Barry will move in by midnight, continuing off and on through much of Wednesday. Thereafter oppressive summer heat and humidity will be upon the region Thursday through the weekend with occasional showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Next round of showers and thunderstorms tied to Post T.C. Barry are drifting over eastern Lake Erie toward western New York late this evening. Also seeing some lighter showers begin to expand across the Niagara Frontier. Bulk of showers and some thunder will arrive over western New York by midnight, then move toward Finger Lakes and to east of Lake Ontario late tonight through daybreak on Wednesday. Currently, showers and thunderstorms are maximized in coverage on northern edge of H85 low-level jet/moisture transport just downstream of main mid level shortwave and sfc low which is the remnants of Post T.C. Barry. These forcing mechanisms along with axis of PWATs up to 2.0 inches slide across western and north central New York into mid morning Wednesday, then another surge of more concentrated showers and thunderstorms slides across later in the morning as shortwave axis crosses the area. Through mid morning Wednesday, elevated instability based just off the sfc stays mainly below 1000 j/kg and effective shear stays marginal for stronger storms, only 20-25 kts. Main concern will continue to be heavy rain from the stronger storms given PWATS so high and the very high freezing levels in place (near 15kft on the 00z BUF sounding). Should still see some motion to the storms as we saw earlier today, but any location that saw heavier rain earlier this afternoon (heaviest rain occurred over far nw Ontario county) and areas that are prone to poor drainage and/or ponding could see issues with any prolonged periods of showers and thunderstorms or if those showers and thunderstorms train over areas repeatedly. As occurred on Tuesday upstream, expect increasing coverage of showers and thundestorms late morning through the afternoon on Wednesday (as daytime instability increases) just ahead of where the shortwave trough will be at that time. At this point, best estimate for that match up of greatest instability and stronger forcing will be back across the Finger Lakes and into the Southern Tier, though southern portions of the Niagara Frontier may be in on this as well. Overall, right now there is not big signal from short term, high res guidance such as HRRR, RAP or HREF that widespread rainfall will be significant overnight into Wednesday morning. Therefore there are no plans to issue any kind of flood watch or any SPS at this time. Will continue to keep mention of heavy rains in the grids and Hazardous Weather Outlook. Concerning temperatures tonight, looks like we are done with the more comfortable temps observed the last few nights. For tonight, plan on readings to stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest on the lake plain. On Wednesday, clouds and the rain around will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than what we saw Tuesday afternoon as highs only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Even when it it not raining or stops raining, it will remain humid as dewpoints remain around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...Dangerously High Apparent Temperatures by Friday... While our attention this period will shift to the significant increase in heat and humidity...we will first have to deal with some leftover tropical `flavored` showers from the remnants of Barry. As we open this period Wednesday night...the mid level vestiges of Barry will be passing across Pennsylvania. While the associated swath of deep tropical moisture will have moved well to our southeast by this time...there may be enough jet induced forcing to support some leftover shower activity for sites east of the Genesee valley. Otherwise we can anticipate another muggy night with plenty of cloud cover. Thursday will then start an extended period of very warm and sultry weather. As heights build in the wake of the exited tropical remnants...H85 temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper teens c. Given a fairly well mixed environment and the return to at least partly sunny skies...this will EASILY support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s f across the lower elevations with some 90 degree readings sprinkled in for good measure in some of the valleys. Dew points in the lower 70s will then allow heat index values/apparent temps to reach into the low to mid 90s across the lake plains and valleys. This could prompt heat advisories... which are issued when apparent temps reach at least 95 for a minimum of two hours. Otherwise...the sultry conditions should be accompanied by dry weather...with only low chc pops for afternoon convection being in place across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Even in these areas though...weak capping below 10kft and relatively dry air in the mid levels may be enough to preclude any convection (thus the low pops). As an impressive sub tropical ridge builds across the southern tier of the country Thursday night and Friday...a 35 to 40kt jet extending around the northern periphery of the H7 portion of the ridge will advect even warmer and more humid air across the Lower Great Lakes. One can already see the potential that this airmass will have by seeing all of the heat related flags that are in place across the center of the country. H85 temps over our region are forecast to climb to around 20c Thursday night and to 22c on Friday. Its one thing to see this displayed by deterministic guidance...and even more impressive to see it in a consensus ensemble forecast such as the SREF or GFS. Herein lies the MAIN concern for the forecast package. Temperatures Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s for the lower elevations...then as the core of the oppressive airmass advects across the Lower Great Lakes...we can fully anticipate max temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s for the majority of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Readings will be several degrees lower in the lake cooled air in the immediate BUF suburbs...across the higher terrain and also in the Thousand Island region. This heat...when combined with dew points in the MID 70s...will support stifling apparent temperatures as high as 106. Heat advisories are expected for the entire region...with the risk for Excessive Heat Warnings for some of the counties bordering the south shore of Lake Ontario. In regards to precipitation during this particular twenty four hour period...guidance is suggesting that a convectively enhanced shortwave/MCS could make its way from the Upper Great Lakes into our region by Friday morning. While this system would likely be a much weakened state by the time it would reach our would give parts of the region a chance for a little rain during the morning. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms would be found over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon. Any late Friday convection would die off during the evening hours. Otherwise...Friday night will be Miami-like with dew points in the mid 70s holding temperatures up at oppressive levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Continued Unhealthy Heat and Humidity for the Weekend... An impressive 592-595dm sub tropical ridge extending across the southern half of the country will remain our dominant weather feature as we open this forecast period. Anomalously high H85 temperatures of 20 to 22c will continue to pour across our region around the `top` of this hemispheric sized anticyclone...and this will keep dangerously high heat and humidity in place throughout our forecast area. Max temps will be in the 90s for all but the lake shadowed areas immediately downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario and across some of the higher terrain...with heat indices/apparent temps likely exceeding 100 again for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario...including the bulk of Livingston co. This would support continued heat advisories and possible excessive heat warnings. While it will still be quite warm and uncomfortable on Sunday...the good news is that Saturday should be the last day of the potentially dangerous heat. A cold front is forecast to drop south across our region Saturday night and at this time...our concern will once again shift...this time from oppressive heat to the risk for severe weather. This boundary will likely become the focus for a an eastward propagating MCS. As has been discussed at length now.. the pattern developing is textbook for a tongue of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plume) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. One can see the `birth` of this elevated instability by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic inverted- V soundings at Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ). HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this unstable airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be seen in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection. Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact, a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports. The target for this severe weather potential is now Saturday night or early Sunday morning. As the front slowly pushes across and to our south of our region Sunday afternoon and is projected to stall over Pennsylvania. This would leave much of our forecast area prone to additional showers and thunderstorms...especially the Southern Tier. A reinforcing/secondary cool front is then forecast to push through the region late Monday. This should finally usher cooler and drier air into the region for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Light showers have expanded across the Niagara Frontier this evening. Even with some light rain, conditions should remain VFR. Next round of widespread showers and some thunderstorms with heavy downpours is beginning to push across eastern Lake Erie and will arrive by midnight for JHW, BUF and IAG and shortly thereafter at ROC, then later tonight at ART. Off and on showers and some thunderstorms will continue through late Wednesday morning, before diminishing in the afternoon except lingering longer at JHW. Except ceilings to fall to MVFR by daybreak Wednesday and continue to fall to IFR across the higher terrain including KJHW and KART. Should see cigs also fall to higher IFR or lower MVFR in the afternoon at IAG, BUF and ROC as passage of sfc trough/lake breeze off Ontario shifts winds to northerly in the afternoon. Visibility restrictions to at least MVFR will likely occur with most showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday night...IFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening at JHW. Thursday...VFR. Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A warm southwesterly flow will be present across the lakes through the end of the week. While winds may occasionally reach 15 knots, especially on Friday, waves will likely remain around 2 feet or less on the waters. There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times through the rest of the week and for the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce locally higher winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLA/Thomas NEAR TERM...JLA SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...HSK/JLA MARINE...HSK/JLA/Thomas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1027 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move through the region overnight. A cold front will move southwards across the area Wednesday into Wednesday evening. High pressure follows for Thursday into Friday and will be followed by another cold front Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1020 PM Update... Steady rain has pushed into NB w/some leftover showers across eastern Aroostook County this evening per the radar loop. Dewpoints as noted by the daycrew sure did dramatically rise w/the warm front as they are in the 60s across central and northern areas. The interior Downeast, and the coast are still in the upper 50s but will gradually climb overnight. Kept the mention of some fog in the forecast through early Wednesday morning. 00Z CAR sounding showed some instability w/moisture from 900mbs through 300mbs. The latest RAP and HRRR shows some more showers to set up across the west and then push east during the overnight hrs. MU CAPE of 300+ joules and decent shear(25-30 kts) to allow for some tstms. Decided to keep tstms in the forecast for the overnight period. There could be some heavy rainfall w/any tstm and possibly some stronger wind gusts given the shear. Confidence is not high enough to include the enhanced wording attm. Temps/dewpoints were tweaked to reflect the latest conditions. Previous Discussion... For Wednesday, the area will start the day in the warm sector with a cold front dropping southward from Quebec. The cold front will provide a good convection trigger. Dew points over 70F ahead of the front and PWs approaching 2 inches...with moisture from the remnants of Barry...and a deep warm cloud layer indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall. However, mid and high cloud cover streaming eastward may hinder development of SBCAPE and mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive. There is some shear towards the coast in the late afternoon with the entrance to an upper jet, but timing and placement of the shear may not be ideal. Low clouds and fog will return back along the coast by early evening. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will be exiting the Downeast coast early Wednesday night. Rain will taper to showers with slight chance of lingering thunder in more convective showers Downeast. Passing front will decrease fog amounts along coast, but given humid environment some patchy fog may make it inland along coastal Downeast beforehand. Strong surface high pressure will then push over the state for a clear night and dry day Thursday and Thurs evening with plenty of sunshine. Friday will bring return flow from south as high exits and boundary approaches from west. The onshore flow element will keep the coast cooler than Thursday, but inland areas will see a warmer day, nearing 80 in many spots. Additionally, patchy fog over the Gulf of Maine is expected to develop Thursday night into Friday morning, with the chance to work its way inland along coastal Downeast. Weak boundary will pass Friday assisted by daytime heating and convergence. The result will be some showers and a chance of thunder in the north. Main front will not have energy or forcing to pass through region until upper level jet streak advances east on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm air and moisture advection takes place Friday night, with dew point temperatures climbing into the mid 60s. The warm airmass will provide a jump start to expected hot temperatures Saturday afternoon. Timing of the cold front passage will be key for daily high temps and cloud cover during the day, as well as thunder potential. GFS has been relatively consistent in overall spatial extent and timing, with other long term guidance weaker but showing convective qualities. Upwards to 2000j/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6km shear will be present for storm growth. With some mid-level cooling, CAPE in the hail growth zone, and some drying in the low levels, highlighting potential hail concern. DCAPE values in the 500-1000 range also weigh chance of gusty winds. PWATs near 2 inches, so will need to keep track of Saturday afternoon for chance of heavier rainfall with convective storms. Some 90s will break out ahead of the front, mainly Downeast and Bangor Region. The north will be warm, but with proximity to front, expect cloud cover to restrict too many highs outside of the 80s. Other than quick moving high pressure on Sunday, remainder of the week wont have much in the way of stronger systems. There will be the chance for showers for most of the period as moisture filters back in quickly after the highs departure. Temperatures will return closer to normal after Saturday, with many widespread highs in the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: All sites will be VFR into the evening. By late evening, IFR cigs are possible at FVE and will be a threat through the remainder of the night. After midnight, expect LIFR to roll into BHB and coastal sites and remain until early Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the entire area after midnight. Scattered thunderstorms across the entire area will occur with a cold front on Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Wednesday Night: Cold front will slide off the Downeast coast. VFR is expected behind in north and towards BGR, but some fog and showers early evening will start out Downeast with IFR, especially for BHB. Winds will shift N behind frontal passage. Thursday and Thursday Night: VFR expected under high pressure. Light NE winds will shift SSW. Friday and Friday Night: VFR will continue for most terminals, with showers approaching the north. Some thunder is possible during afternoon in this area as well with potential reduction to MVFR. Winds will be light, between S and SW. Saturday: MVFR and IFR is possible amid a passing cold front with showers and thunderstorms during afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up tonight with a few gusts towards 20 kts possible. This will drive a modest increase in seas to 3 feet. Fog is probably the biggest issue...arriving after midnight and remaining most of Wednesday as a very humid airmass moves over the cold waters. SHORT TERM: Conditions expected to be below SCA criteria through the period. Waves are expected to be between 2 and 3 feet, building to 4 briefly Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1046 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Updated the forecast overnight to include a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in our KS counties as some CAMS, including the HRRR and HiResARW show convection developing from warm-advection type activity. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Main forecast challenge in the short term is the thunderstorm chances for tonight. Latest round of CAMs keep the local area pretty much dry tonight. Some convection may roll out of western Nebraska, but will likely be weakening by the time it reaches our CWA. Another complex of thunderstorms will also likely initiate over South Dakota. Rising 700mb temperatures to 13-15C should steer this cluster well to the northeast of the area as well. All that being said, models struggled yesterday, so confidence isn`t super high, therefore a slight chance for storms was maintained in northern portions of the area. Residual cloud cover from any overnight convection also gives some uncertainty to how quickly we warm up tomorrow. Nevertheless, models have trended a touch warmer, so I am relatively confident that most locations will see heat index values 102 to 110 degrees by late afternoon. With this excessive heat and overnight lows only falling to the low-mid 70s, an Excessive Heat Warning was issued for the entire area through Friday. By late tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop ahead of a diffuse front. A few storms could be severe as there is plenty of instability (4000J/kg+ of MLCAPE) to work with, but shear is lacking so I think "marginal" risk from SPC is reasonable. Thunderstorms will continue through the evening and overnight and will gradually wane and exit the area by Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 As mentioned above, heat will continue Thursday and Friday as the CONUS remains in pretty zonal flow aloft. Highs will be in the mid 90s to 100s each day...but slightly lower dewpoints may keep heat index values a few degrees cooler...especially on Friday. Dry conditions also prevail through this period. The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday as a front moves into the area and brings some relief from the heat. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be more bearable, with highs "only" in the 80s to near 90 degrees instead of the 90s and 100s. It also looks like we will head into another mostly dry period for next week as mid and upper level ridge build over the Rockies putting us in fairly quiet northwest flow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Marginal shear will occur overnight and have sided with putting this in the forecast. Kept thunder out of the forecast as CAMs still suggest that any convection should be north of the terminals. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
821 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Updated to remove expire red flag headline. Critical fire weather conditions will redevelop Wednesday afternoon and evening across most of eastern UT and western CO. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 339 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Thunderstorm coverage was a bit further west than models indicated as the models seem to be having a tough time handling the remnant moisture and drying things out too quickly. The focus for activity appears to be shifting eastward late this afternoon with the focus shifting towards the San Juans and west Elks by this evening. Expect most activity to end after sunset. The HRRR and to some extent NAMNest is showing some isolated thunderstorms moving in from the south across the southern valleys and San Juans late this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Precipitable water (PW) values, although they are decreasing across much of the area, do show a bump up above 0.75 towards an inch in this region overnight. Models had a very hard time picking up on the overnight convection last night, so am leaning towards this occurring. Increased PoPs in this area overnight with activity dissipating by sunrise. Much drier air moves in for Wednesday as PW values drop below 0.5. The gradient tightens a bit with better mixing as an upper level trough swings across the region. Enough PW remains near the Four Corners for isolated storms possible over the San Juans Wednesday afternoon, but for the most part, expect another hot and dry day with critical fire weather conditions expanding to include all lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for remaining valley zones to a Red Flag Warning for Wednesday and expanded it to include the Uinta Basin zone as it looks criteria will be met there as well. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 A much drier westerly flow will follow behind the trough passage Wednesday, with warm and dry conditions remaining through the end of the week. Thinking this trough will act to finally push the lingering moisture out of the region. Some breezy conditions may occur during the afternoons with potential for critical fire weather conditions, especially across the northern zones that remain in closer proximity to the upper level jet. Decided not to issue any Fire Weather Watch for Thursday yet with the Red Flag Warning ongoing for both today and Wednesday, as conditions appear marginal at this time, but something for later shifts to reassess. An upper level trough will move across the northern Rockies, near Canada on Friday, allowing the ridge of high pressure to build back over the region by the weekend. This will also allow more moisture to enter the region from the southwest as PW values increase above 0.75 inches on Saturday and above an inch by early next week. This will increase thunderstorm potential and coverage with better chances for wetting rain by early next week. The one concern with this moisture surge is the position of the high as it is directly overhead as opposed to the more favorable east of the divide positioning. The EC seems to have come around to agreement with the GFS on the more westerly position. So, the monsoonal moisture axis will be forced through New Mexico and Arizona, into Nevada and western Utah. We will still see some moisture increase, but it may not be as robust or widespread with storm coverage as remnants of that moisture plume will get entrained and recycled around the high. Regardless, look for an increase in showers and thunderstorms this weekend towards early next week with continued above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 459 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Expect breezy southwest winds from 10 to 15 MPH at most TAF sites through early this evening with occasional gusts as high as 30 MPH. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over the higher terrain with little chance for TAF sites to be impacted by rain, though strong and unpredictable outflow winds to 40 MPH are possible. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish before midnight. Fewer thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 817 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Dry, breezy and hot conditions are expected to redevelop Wednesday afternoon and bring a repeat of critical fire weather conditions over much of eastern UT and western CO. Hot and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week with some breezes during the afternoons. Sunday brings the first chance of rain with chances increasing a bit each day next week. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290-292. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ486-487- 490-491. && $$ UPDATE...CC SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...CC FIRE WEATHER...CC
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
951 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Barry will move through the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. It will remain humid through the entire week with hot conditions expected Thursday through the weekend as a large dome of heat develops over much of the eastern half of the United States. Outside of rain chances tonight and Wednesday, much of the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend will remain dry. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Remnants of Barry will continue to affect the region through the night. The next axis of energy is currently lifting northeast across our area, resulting in some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the I-71 corridor. With the loss of the daytime heating, expect to see a continued decreasing trend in lightning, but occasional showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will persist through the night. In the tropical airmass, locally heavy downpours can be expected. The faster storm motion should help limit widespread flooding issues, although with the excessive rainfall rates, any storms that train will pose a more localized flood threat. Warm and muggy conditions are expected again tonight with overnight lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Barry will move east across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing during the morning. By afternoon, pcpn coverage will begin to shift to the east as the region starts to become more in the wake of the system. Again, high pwats (2 inches plus), WCDs, skinny CAPEs, and high freezing levels will make collision/coalescence favorable with warm core centroids. Event so, overall rainfall amounts on a larger scale should be held in check, with only isolated threats for flooding/flash flooding. This will continued to be mentioned in the HWO. It will be humid, but temperatures will probably be the coolest of the week and upcoming weekend due to clouds and pcpn. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 80s. For Wednesday night, some weak mid level ridging will try to build into our area. This should allow for a rapid decrease in pcpn coverage/threat with skies becoming partly cloudy. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The majority of the moisture from what is left of Barry will be east of the region by Thursday morning. However there is a little lingering instability on Thursday to keep a 20 PoP in the forecast for about the southern 2/3 of the fa. Warm and humid conditions will affect the region with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This would push the heat index over 100 degrees. Thursday night into Friday, the H5 ridge starts to build north. This will allow the heat and humidity to build and peak Friday into Saturday. Highs are forecast to push into the mid 90s and dewpoints into the mid 70s, producing heat indices around 105. Will hold off on issuing an Excessive Heat Watch, but will keep the mention in the HWO. The heat and humidity will begin to lower Sunday as the H5 ridge begins to break down as a backdoor cold front drops into the region. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast with the front in the area. The front should be south of the region Monday, but lingering lift across the region could produce some scattered convection. Highs on Monday will be down into the upper 80s due to the cloud cover and convection. By Tuesday, high pressure centered over the Great Plains will be bringing less humid air into the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The remnants of Barry will shift slowly east across the Ohio Valley region tonight into Wednesday. We seem to be in a bit of a lull across our area at the moment with mainly just some very isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of the hi res models including the HRRR are showing some additional energy pivoting up across our area later this evening into the early morning hours. Will try to hit this with a tempo -tsra at the TAF sites. After that passes, more widespread shower activity is expected to overspread the TAF sites through the overnight hours and into Wednesday as the better forcing associated with the remnants works east. Some embedded thunder will be possible but think the prevailing ptype will be showers. Cigs will also gradually lower into MVFR later tonight and possibly into IFR during the morning hours on Wednesday. Cigs should then graduallylift back through MVFR category as the more widespread pcpn begins to taper off and the remnant low pushes off to the east. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Short term concerns remain convective trends through the period. Severe threat along with possible flash flood threat as well mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening. Iowa MCV has developed convection along a weak leftover boundary over southern MN. Outflow from the established convection is lifting across the southern portion of the metro and could work into the metro this evening. Will have to keep a small PoP and mention coverage term for isolated/scattered wording through this evening. Expect this activity to wane through about 03z. Overall 12Z HIRES models and latest available HRRR continue to show development of another complex over South Dakota this evening and racing to southwest MN by 12z WED. Will follow that trend for now and hopefully see a decreasing trend or drop the complex dropping farther to the south and exit the CWA during the morning. Then redevelopment and location where this will take place remains the main challenge. Will hold onto the high end PoPs from the NBM especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will all depend on what develops convectively overnight. The 12Z ECMWF holds off on overall development until the actual upper trough moves in late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night. Also, held onto the severe wording across the southern CWA for mainly Wednesday afternoon/night. Heavy rain/flash flood threat remains and will also depend on where significant boundaries develop/remain so have opted to forgo a flash flood watch for the CWA at the moment. Strong lift and impressive moisture transport moving across the area with PW`s nearing 2 inches should still produce significant rainfall rates, most likely 3-4 inches an hour once again. Any overnight complex should exit to the east Wednesday night, taking the severe/heavy rain threat with it. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Hot and humid weather will continue through the end of the work week, with Friday still looking to be the hottest day of the week. By Thursday, the upper trough will have lifted north of the area. A strengthening west to east jet will lift slightly north and allow the thermal ridge to begin expanding northward across the area. Southwesterly flow will persist Thursday and highs around 90 degrees with dew points climbing into the 70s will make for another hot day. The thermal ridge axis looks to move through late Thursday night through Friday morning. Continued SSW flow will bring slightly higher dew points northward with most guidance suggesting mid-70s are reasonable. Temperatures in the lower 90s still look on track, so heat index values should exceed 100 degrees during the day Friday. For this weekend, Saturday looks to be the best chance to be dry for most, although isolated thunder is possible given the unstable airmass in place. A decent upper trough looks to drop in from the northwest as the main upper jet streak shifts east of the Great Lakes, which would bring our best chance for storms along an approaching cold front as early as Saturday night. This cool front will drop through overnight and lead to a cooler trend into early next week. High pressure will build in from Canada behind the front, with dew points likely falling into the 50s and daytime highs maxing out in the 70s for the most part, but a few 80 degree readings will be possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Scattered thunderstorms continue near RWF late this evening, but they should be on a weakening trend during the next few hours. Mostly dry overnight, but a complex of weakening thunderstorms will push into western MN early Wednesday morning, likely degrading to a few showers by the time it reaches eastern MN. Additional thunderstorms will fire along a front Wednesday afternoon/evening which will pose a severe threat. Continued the PROB30 mention at all the TAF sites due to the uncertainty with timing and placement of the thunderstorm complex(es). Will need to watch for patchy fog overnight, given the light wind and recent rain. KMSP...The potential for showers continues to be too low to mention in the TAF Wednesday morning, with a better chance during the evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Winds light and variable. Fri...VFR. Isolated TSRA. Winds SW 5 kts becoming NW. Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...BORGHOFF
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 As of this afternoon, the isolated convection from this morning in north central KS has diminished. Furthermore, there is currently a cluster of storms near Wichita, a general weakening trend is favored as it moves east into an environment with more inhibition, which would keep us dry through the afternoon and evening. A ridge sits over the Southern Plains with the ridge axis expected to shift eastward as we head through the overnight hours as a lee trough strengthens to the west of our CWA. This will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen somewhat and maintain southwesterly flow through the short-term forecast period, with morning lows expected to fall back to around the mid 70s. The best forcing for convection overnight into early Wednesday morning appears to be associated with an embedded shortwave moving through the Dakotas, keeping the highest precip chances well north of the CWA. However, RAP/HRRR soundings from north central KS show WAA in the 850-700mb layer, which could provide lift sufficient enough to develop a few elevated storms on an isolated basis near sunrise, given CAPE within 500-1000 J/kg above 700mb. As a result, have added slight chance PoPs in north central KS after 06Z and lasting until around sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Transitioning into Wednesday, the multi-day excessive heat event looks to begin by afternoon... A few showers and/or isolated storms may persist through the morning hours with WAA near 700 mb. Otherwise, any thin layer of cloud cover near 700 mb should scatter by late morning and allow for rapid warming to occur. Afternoon temperatures are progged to reach the mid 90s to near 100. Dew points are expected to remain quite uncomfortable in the upper 60s and low 70s resulting in heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. With this persist heat expected through at least Saturday, have opted to upgrade the area to an Excessive Heat Warning from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough is progged traverse the High Plains Wednesday afternoon, developing thunderstorms across eastern CO/western NE along the lee trough. There is the potential for these to grow upscale and reach the western counties Wednesday evening. As the shortwave lifts northeastward and away from the convection and an overall unfavorable environment for MCS maintenance, thunderstorms will likely dissipate near/prior to entering central/north central KS. Otherwise, the hot and dry pattern looks to continue through the end of the week as the midlevel ridge remains across the southeastern half of the CONUS. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s combined with humid conditions will yield heat index values from 105 to 110. Furthermore, little relief will be felt overnight with temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to near 80. The pattern looks to finally break down as a midlevel trough across the Pacific Northwest ejects across Northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday, shunting a cool front through the area late Sunday into Monday. This will provide some relief from the heat with temperatures in the 80s by Monday. In addition, the frontal passage could provide some rainfall as well. Beyond Monday, the stout midlevel ridge looks to remain west of the area with more-comfortable conditions remaining across the area through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 A 925mb jet over central and north-central KS combined with low level WAA might be enough to get a few storms going overnight. Both the HRRR and RAP now show isolated convection in central KS by 07Z. However, confidence currently remains a little too low to mention at terminals tonight, but will monitor trends. LLWS associated with the aforementioned jet could impact the KMHK terminal from 09Z through 11Z with southerly winds around 35 kts at 1500 ft AGL. Otherwise, southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty by mid to late morning Wednesday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg/Picha LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Teefey