Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/17/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Brownsville TX

 708 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Kept trends of previous TAF set largely intact. SE
breezes will diminish this evening, then return by mid-morning
Wednesday at similar levels to today. RAP BUFKIT forecast
soundings and statistical guidance consistent in suggesting that
MVFR cloud deck will form around an inversion at 025-030, with
ceiling likely at least some of the time after midnight. This deck
should lift/scatter out as daytime heating kicks back in.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will be
the rule for the RGV throughout the short term period maintaining
the hot, stable and humid conditions through Wed Night. The 500 mb
ridge axis will shift eastwards a bit into Wed/Wed Night. But
overall deep layer moisture levels will remain very limited over the
RGV maintaining single digit pops. MAV/MET and ECMWF temp guidance
is in very good agreement for maxes/mins through tomorrow night and
will go close to a model blend for temps throughout the short term.
Surface dewpoints will remain low enough to hold down the heat index
values generally below Heat Advisory criteria. The exception will be
the far western areas near the Falcon Reservoir which may briefly
reach Advisory criteria for a couple of hours.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The long term starts with
high pressure still in control for much of the region. Southerly
or southeasterly winds will be somewhat elevated with breezy
conditions expected as high pressure remains in place downstream
and low pressure upstream. Sea breezes will likely develop each
day and move inland at least to the HWY 77 corridor during the
afternoon hours, however, limited moisture will be in place so
expected only silent 10s at best.

The strong high aloft will build across much of the southern tier
US bringing continued hot conditions. In time, a weakness begin to
develop later on in the period early next week. A cold front will
begin to slide southward across the southeast US early next week
in wake of the weakness. Most models show this boundary moving
southward across central Texas and even into central GOMEX by the
end of the period. With the low in the mid levels/thicknesses as
well as a slight uptick in POPs/Clouds with the front expect
temperatures to be held down to at least average if not slightly
below in some areas.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday Night): SCEC conditions have
persisted across the Bay and Gulf waters this afternoon due to a
pretty brisk PGF near the coastline. SCEC conditions will likely
persist on through the short term period mainly for gusty SE winds.
However, sustained SCA conditions are not expected through Wed
Night.

(Thursday through Tuesday): The short term pattern will mostly
continue into the long term with 2 to 4 feet wave heights and
cautionary wording winds gusts along the laguna and 0-20nm/near
shore waters. Toward the end of the period there may be an
increase in showers and storms as a cold front moves into the
northern gulf. Confidence is fairly low in the rain chances later
in the period, however, any convection will likely cause some
localized higher winds and seas.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-Schroeder/56



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Buffalo NY

 1037 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Next round of showers and thunderstorms tied to remnants of Post
T.C. Barry will move in by midnight, continuing off and on through
much of Wednesday. Thereafter oppressive summer heat and humidity
will be upon the region Thursday through the weekend with occasional
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next round of showers and thunderstorms tied to Post T.C. Barry are
drifting over eastern Lake Erie toward western New York late this
evening. Also seeing some lighter showers begin to expand across the
Niagara Frontier. Bulk of showers and some thunder will arrive over
western New York by midnight, then move toward Finger Lakes and to
east of Lake Ontario late tonight through daybreak on Wednesday.
Currently, showers and thunderstorms are maximized in coverage on
northern edge of H85 low-level jet/moisture transport just
downstream of main mid level shortwave and sfc low which is the
remnants of Post T.C. Barry. These forcing mechanisms along with
axis of PWATs up to 2.0 inches slide across western and north
central New York into mid morning Wednesday, then another surge of
more concentrated showers and thunderstorms slides across later in
the morning as shortwave axis crosses the area.

Through mid morning Wednesday, elevated instability based just off
the sfc stays mainly below 1000 j/kg and effective shear stays
marginal for stronger storms, only 20-25 kts. Main concern will
continue to be heavy rain from the stronger storms given PWATS so
high and the very high freezing levels in place (near 15kft on the
00z BUF sounding). Should still see some motion to the storms as we
saw earlier today, but any location that saw heavier rain earlier
this afternoon (heaviest rain occurred over far nw Ontario county)
and areas that are prone to poor drainage and/or ponding could see
issues with any prolonged periods of showers and thunderstorms or if
those showers and thunderstorms train over areas repeatedly.

As occurred on Tuesday upstream, expect increasing coverage of
showers and thundestorms late morning through the afternoon on
Wednesday (as daytime instability increases) just ahead of where
the shortwave trough will be at that time. At this point, best
estimate for that match up of greatest instability and stronger
forcing will be back across the Finger Lakes and into the
Southern Tier, though southern portions of the Niagara Frontier
may be in on this as well. Overall, right now there is not big
signal from short term, high res guidance such as HRRR, RAP or
HREF that widespread rainfall will be significant overnight into
Wednesday morning. Therefore there are no plans to issue any
kind of flood watch or any SPS at this time. Will continue to
keep mention of heavy rains in the grids and Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Concerning temperatures tonight, looks like we are done with the
more comfortable temps observed the last few nights. For
tonight, plan on readings to stay in the upper 60s to lower
70s, warmest on the lake plain. On Wednesday, clouds and the
rain around will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than what
we saw Tuesday afternoon as highs only reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Even when it it not raining or stops raining, it
will remain humid as dewpoints remain around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
...Dangerously High Apparent Temperatures by Friday...

While our attention this period will shift to the significant
increase in heat and humidity...we will first have to deal with some
leftover tropical `flavored` showers from the remnants of Barry.

As we open this period Wednesday night...the mid level vestiges of
Barry will be passing across Pennsylvania. While the associated
swath of deep tropical moisture will have moved well to our
southeast by this time...there may be enough jet induced forcing to
support some leftover shower activity for sites east of the Genesee
valley. Otherwise we can anticipate another muggy night with plenty
of cloud cover.

Thursday will then start an extended period of very warm and sultry
weather. As heights build in the wake of the exited tropical
remnants...H85 temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper
teens c. Given a fairly well mixed environment and the return to at
least partly sunny skies...this will EASILY support afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s f across the lower elevations
with some 90 degree readings sprinkled in for good measure in some
of the valleys. Dew points in the lower 70s will then allow heat
index values/apparent temps to reach into the low to mid 90s across
the lake plains and valleys. This could prompt heat advisories...
which are issued when apparent temps reach at least 95 for a minimum
of two hours. Otherwise...the sultry conditions should be
accompanied by dry weather...with only low chc pops for afternoon
convection being in place across parts of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes region. Even in these areas though...weak capping below
10kft and relatively dry air in the mid levels may be enough to
preclude any convection (thus the low pops).

As an impressive sub tropical ridge builds across the southern tier
of the country Thursday night and Friday...a 35 to 40kt jet
extending around the northern periphery of the H7 portion of the
ridge will advect even warmer and more humid air across the Lower
Great Lakes. One can already see the potential that this airmass
will have by seeing all of the heat related flags that are in place
across the center of the country. H85 temps over our region are
forecast to climb to around 20c Thursday night and to 22c on Friday.
Its one thing to see this displayed by deterministic guidance...and
even more impressive to see it in a consensus ensemble forecast such
as the SREF or GFS. Herein lies the MAIN concern for the forecast
package.

Temperatures Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s for
the lower elevations...then as the core of the oppressive airmass
advects across the Lower Great Lakes...we can fully anticipate max
temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s for the majority of the
forecast area Friday afternoon. Readings will be several degrees
lower in the lake cooled air in the immediate BUF suburbs...across
the higher terrain and also in the Thousand Island region. This
heat...when combined with dew points in the MID 70s...will support
stifling apparent temperatures as high as 106. Heat advisories are
expected for the entire region...with the risk for Excessive Heat
Warnings for some of the counties bordering the south shore of Lake
Ontario.

In regards to precipitation during this particular twenty four hour
period...guidance is suggesting that a convectively enhanced
shortwave/MCS could make its way from the Upper Great Lakes into our
region by Friday morning. While this system would likely be a much
weakened state by the time it would reach our area...it would give
parts of the region a chance for a little rain during the morning.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms would be found over
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon.

Any late Friday convection would die off during the evening hours.
Otherwise...Friday night will be Miami-like with dew points in the
mid 70s holding temperatures up at oppressive levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Continued Unhealthy Heat and Humidity for the Weekend...

An impressive 592-595dm sub tropical ridge extending across the
southern half of the country will remain our dominant weather
feature as we open this forecast period. Anomalously high H85
temperatures of 20 to 22c will continue to pour across our region
around the `top` of this hemispheric sized anticyclone...and this
will keep dangerously high heat and humidity in place throughout our
forecast area. Max temps will be in the 90s for all but the lake
shadowed areas immediately downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario and
across some of the higher terrain...with heat indices/apparent temps
likely exceeding 100 again for the counties lining the south shore
of Lake Ontario...including the bulk of Livingston co. This would
support continued heat advisories and possible excessive heat
warnings.

While it will still be quite warm and uncomfortable on Sunday...the
good news is that Saturday should be the last day of the potentially
dangerous heat. A cold front is forecast to drop south across our
region Saturday night and Sunday...so at this time...our concern
will once again shift...this time from oppressive heat to the risk
for severe weather. This boundary will likely become the focus for a
an eastward propagating MCS. As has been discussed at length now..
the pattern developing is textbook for a tongue of steep mid level
lapse rates (EML plume) to work from the Plains and Upper Great
Lakes into our region. One can see the `birth` of this elevated
instability by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic inverted-
V soundings at Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ). HYSPLIT
trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this
unstable airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be
seen in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate
forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this
significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak
frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse
rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection.
Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact,
a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days
when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained
numerous high end severe weather reports. The target for this severe
weather potential is now Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

As the front slowly pushes across and to our south of our region
Sunday afternoon and night...it is projected to stall over
Pennsylvania. This would leave much of our forecast area prone to
additional showers and thunderstorms...especially the Southern Tier.

A reinforcing/secondary cool front is then forecast to push through
the region late Monday. This should finally usher cooler and
drier air into the region for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light showers have expanded across the Niagara Frontier this
evening. Even with some light rain, conditions should remain VFR.
Next round of widespread showers and some thunderstorms with heavy
downpours is beginning to push across eastern Lake Erie and will
arrive by midnight for JHW, BUF and IAG and shortly thereafter at
ROC, then later tonight at ART. Off and on showers and some
thunderstorms will continue through late Wednesday morning, before
diminishing in the afternoon except lingering longer at JHW. Except
ceilings to fall to MVFR by daybreak Wednesday and continue to fall
to IFR across the higher terrain including KJHW and KART. Should see
cigs also fall to higher IFR or lower MVFR in the afternoon at IAG,
BUF and ROC as passage of sfc trough/lake breeze off Ontario shifts
winds to northerly in the afternoon. Visibility restrictions to at
least MVFR will likely occur with most showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...IFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening at JHW.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm southwesterly flow will be present across the lakes through
the end of the week. While winds may occasionally reach 15 knots,
especially on Friday, waves will likely remain around 2 feet or less
on the waters.

There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
through the rest of the week and for the weekend. Any thunderstorm
may produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLA/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HSK/JLA
MARINE...HSK/JLA/Thomas



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 1027 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through the region overnight. A cold
front will move southwards across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. High pressure follows for Thursday into
Friday and will be followed by another cold front Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1020 PM Update...
Steady rain has pushed into NB w/some leftover showers across
eastern Aroostook County this evening per the radar loop.
Dewpoints as noted by the daycrew sure did dramatically rise
w/the warm front as they are in the 60s across central and
northern areas. The interior Downeast, and the coast are still
in the upper 50s but will gradually climb overnight. Kept the
mention of some fog in the forecast through early Wednesday
morning. 00Z CAR sounding showed some instability w/moisture
from 900mbs through 300mbs. The latest RAP and HRRR shows some
more showers to set up across the west and then push east during
the overnight hrs. MU CAPE of 300+ joules and decent shear(25-30
kts) to allow for some tstms. Decided to keep tstms in the
forecast for the overnight period. There could be some heavy
rainfall w/any tstm and possibly some stronger wind gusts given
the shear. Confidence is not high enough to include the enhanced
wording attm. Temps/dewpoints were tweaked to reflect the
latest conditions.

Previous Discussion...
For Wednesday, the area will start the day in the warm sector
with a cold front dropping southward from Quebec. The cold front
will provide a good convection trigger. Dew points over 70F
ahead of the front and PWs approaching 2 inches...with moisture
from the remnants of Barry...and a deep warm cloud layer
indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall. However, mid
and high cloud cover streaming eastward may hinder development
of SBCAPE and mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive. There is
some shear towards the coast in the late afternoon with the
entrance to an upper jet, but timing and placement of the shear
may not be ideal. Low clouds and fog will return back along the
coast by early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will be exiting the Downeast coast early Wednesday
night. Rain will taper to showers with slight chance of
lingering thunder in more convective showers Downeast. Passing
front will decrease fog amounts along coast, but given humid
environment some patchy fog may make it inland along coastal
Downeast beforehand. Strong surface high pressure will then push
over the state for a clear night and dry day Thursday and Thurs
evening with plenty of sunshine. Friday will bring return flow
from south as high exits and boundary approaches from west. The
onshore flow element will keep the coast cooler than Thursday,
but inland areas will see a warmer day, nearing 80 in many
spots. Additionally, patchy fog over the Gulf of Maine is
expected to develop Thursday night into Friday morning, with the
chance to work its way inland along coastal Downeast.

Weak boundary will pass Friday assisted by daytime heating and
convergence. The result will be some showers and a chance of
thunder in the north. Main front will not have energy or forcing
to pass through region until upper level jet streak advances
east on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm air and moisture advection takes place Friday night, with dew
point temperatures climbing into the mid 60s. The warm airmass
will provide a jump start to expected hot temperatures Saturday
afternoon. Timing of the cold front passage will be key for
daily high temps and cloud cover during the day, as well as
thunder potential. GFS has been relatively consistent in overall
spatial extent and timing, with other long term guidance weaker
but showing convective qualities. Upwards to 2000j/kg of MLCAPE
and 30-40kts of 0-6km shear will be present for storm growth.
With some mid-level cooling, CAPE in the hail growth zone, and
some drying in the low levels, highlighting potential hail
concern. DCAPE values in the 500-1000 range also weigh chance
of gusty winds. PWATs near 2 inches, so will need to keep track
of Saturday afternoon for chance of heavier rainfall with
convective storms. Some 90s will break out ahead of the front,
mainly Downeast and Bangor Region. The north will be warm, but
with proximity to front, expect cloud cover to restrict too many
highs outside of the 80s.

Other than quick moving high pressure on Sunday, remainder of
the week wont have much in the way of stronger systems. There
will be the chance for showers for most of the period as
moisture filters back in quickly after the highs departure.
Temperatures will return closer to normal after Saturday, with
many widespread highs in the 80s and lows in the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: All sites will be VFR into the evening. By late
evening, IFR cigs are possible at FVE and will be a threat
through the remainder of the night. After midnight, expect LIFR
to roll into BHB and coastal sites and remain until early
Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across
the entire area after midnight. Scattered thunderstorms across
the entire area will occur with a cold front on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday Night: Cold front will slide off the Downeast coast.
VFR is expected behind in north and towards BGR, but some fog
and showers early evening will start out Downeast with IFR,
especially for BHB. Winds will shift N behind frontal passage.

Thursday and Thursday Night: VFR expected under high pressure.
Light NE winds will shift SSW.

Friday and Friday Night: VFR will continue for most terminals,
with showers approaching the north. Some thunder is possible
during afternoon in this area as well with potential reduction
to MVFR. Winds will be light, between S and SW.

Saturday: MVFR and IFR is possible amid a passing cold front
with showers and thunderstorms during afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up tonight with a few gusts towards
20 kts possible. This will drive a modest increase in seas to 3
feet. Fog is probably the biggest issue...arriving after
midnight and remaining most of Wednesday as a very humid airmass
moves over the cold waters.

SHORT TERM: Conditions expected to be below SCA criteria through
the period. Waves are expected to be between 2 and 3 feet,
building to 4 briefly Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 1046 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Updated the forecast overnight to include a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms in our KS counties as some CAMS,
including the HRRR and HiResARW show convection developing from
warm-advection type activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Main forecast challenge in the short term is the thunderstorm
chances for tonight. Latest round of CAMs keep the local area pretty
much dry tonight. Some convection may roll out of western
Nebraska, but will likely be weakening by the time it reaches our
CWA. Another complex of thunderstorms will also likely initiate
over South Dakota. Rising 700mb temperatures to 13-15C should
steer this cluster well to the northeast of the area as well. All
that being said, models struggled yesterday, so confidence isn`t
super high, therefore a slight chance for storms was maintained in
northern portions of the area.

Residual cloud cover from any overnight convection also gives some
uncertainty to how quickly we warm up tomorrow. Nevertheless, models
have trended a touch warmer, so I am relatively confident that most
locations will see heat index values 102 to 110 degrees by late
afternoon. With this excessive heat and overnight lows only falling
to the low-mid 70s, an Excessive Heat Warning was issued for the
entire area through Friday.

By late tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop ahead of a diffuse front. A few storms could be severe
as there is plenty of instability (4000J/kg+ of MLCAPE) to work
with, but shear is lacking so I think "marginal" risk from SPC is
reasonable. Thunderstorms will continue through the evening and
overnight and will gradually wane and exit the area by Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

As mentioned above, heat will continue Thursday and Friday as the
CONUS remains in pretty zonal flow aloft. Highs will be in the
mid 90s to 100s each day...but slightly lower dewpoints may keep
heat index values a few degrees cooler...especially on Friday. Dry
conditions also prevail through this period.

The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday
as a front moves into the area and brings some relief from the heat.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be more bearable, with highs
"only" in the 80s to near 90 degrees instead of the 90s and 100s. It
also looks like we will head into another mostly dry period for next
week as mid and upper level ridge build over the Rockies putting us
in fairly quiet northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Marginal shear will occur overnight and have sided with putting
this in the forecast. Kept thunder out of the forecast as CAMs
still suggest that any convection should be north of the
terminals.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

 821 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Updated to remove expire red flag headline. Critical fire weather
conditions will redevelop Wednesday afternoon and evening across
most of eastern UT and western CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Thunderstorm coverage was a bit further west than models indicated
as the models seem to be having a tough time handling the remnant
moisture and drying things out too quickly. The focus for activity
appears to be shifting eastward late this afternoon with the focus
shifting towards the San Juans and west Elks by this evening.
Expect most activity to end after sunset. The HRRR and to some
extent NAMNest is showing some isolated thunderstorms moving in
from the south across the southern valleys and San Juans late this
evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Precipitable
water (PW) values, although they are decreasing across much of the
area, do show a bump up above 0.75 towards an inch in this region
overnight. Models had a very hard time picking up on the overnight
convection last night, so am leaning towards this occurring.
Increased PoPs in this area overnight with activity dissipating
by sunrise.

Much drier air moves in for Wednesday as PW values drop below 0.5.
The gradient tightens a bit with better mixing as an upper level
trough swings across the region. Enough PW remains near the Four
Corners for isolated storms possible over the San Juans Wednesday
afternoon, but for the most part, expect another hot and dry day
with critical fire weather conditions expanding to include all
lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Upgraded
the Fire Weather Watch for remaining valley zones to a Red Flag
Warning for Wednesday and expanded it to include the Uinta Basin
zone as it looks criteria will be met there as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

A much drier westerly flow will follow behind the trough passage
Wednesday, with warm and dry conditions remaining through the end
of the week. Thinking this trough will act to finally push the
lingering moisture out of the region. Some breezy conditions may
occur during the afternoons with potential for critical fire
weather conditions, especially across the northern zones that
remain in closer proximity to the upper level jet. Decided not to
issue any Fire Weather Watch for Thursday yet with the Red Flag
Warning ongoing for both today and Wednesday, as conditions appear
marginal at this time, but something for later shifts to reassess.

An upper level trough will move across the northern Rockies, near
Canada on Friday, allowing the ridge of high pressure to build
back over the region by the weekend. This will also allow more
moisture to enter the region from the southwest as PW values
increase above 0.75 inches on Saturday and above an inch by early
next week. This will increase thunderstorm potential and coverage
with better chances for wetting rain by early next week. The one
concern with this moisture surge is the position of the high as it
is directly overhead as opposed to the more favorable east of the
divide positioning. The EC seems to have come around to agreement
with the GFS on the more westerly position. So, the monsoonal
moisture axis will be forced through New Mexico and Arizona, into
Nevada and western Utah. We will still see some moisture increase,
but it may not be as robust or widespread with storm coverage as
remnants of that moisture plume will get entrained and recycled
around the high. Regardless, look for an increase in showers and
thunderstorms this weekend towards early next week with continued
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Expect breezy southwest winds from 10 to 15 MPH at most TAF sites
through early this evening with occasional gusts as high as 30 MPH.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over the
higher terrain with little chance for TAF sites to be impacted by
rain, though strong and unpredictable outflow winds to 40 MPH are
possible. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish before midnight.
Fewer thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 817 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Dry, breezy and hot conditions are expected to redevelop Wednesday
afternoon and bring a repeat of critical fire weather conditions
over much of eastern UT and western CO. Hot and dry conditions
will continue through the end of the week with some breezes during
the afternoons. Sunday brings the first chance of rain with
chances increasing a bit each day next week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
     203-207-290-292.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ486-487-
     490-491.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 951 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Barry will move through the Ohio Valley tonight
and Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
It will remain humid through the entire week with hot conditions
expected Thursday through the weekend as a large dome of heat
develops over much of the eastern half of the United States. Outside
of rain chances tonight and Wednesday, much of the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend will remain dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Remnants of Barry will continue to affect the region through
the night. The next axis of energy is currently lifting
northeast across our area, resulting in some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the I-71 corridor.
With the loss of the daytime heating, expect to see a continued
decreasing trend in lightning, but occasional showers and
perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will persist through the night.
In the tropical airmass, locally heavy downpours can be
expected. The faster storm motion should help limit widespread
flooding issues, although with the excessive rainfall rates, any
storms that train will pose a more localized flood threat. Warm
and muggy conditions are expected again tonight with overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Barry will move east across the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be
ongoing during the morning. By afternoon, pcpn coverage will
begin to shift to the east as the region starts to become more
in the wake of the system. Again, high pwats (2 inches plus),
WCDs, skinny CAPEs, and high freezing levels will make
collision/coalescence favorable with warm core centroids. Event
so, overall rainfall amounts on a larger scale should be held in
check, with only isolated threats for flooding/flash flooding.
This will continued to be mentioned in the HWO. It will be
humid, but temperatures will probably be the coolest of the week
and upcoming weekend due to clouds and pcpn. Highs will warm
into the lower to mid 80s.

For Wednesday night, some weak mid level ridging will try to
build into our area. This should allow for a rapid decrease in
pcpn coverage/threat with skies becoming partly cloudy. It will
be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The majority of the moisture from what is left of Barry will be
east of the region by Thursday morning. However there is a
little lingering instability on Thursday to keep a 20 PoP in the
forecast for about the southern 2/3 of the fa. Warm and humid
conditions will affect the region with highs in the lower 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This would push the heat index over
100 degrees.

Thursday night into Friday, the H5 ridge starts to build north.
This will allow the heat and humidity to build and peak Friday
into Saturday. Highs are forecast to push into the mid 90s and
dewpoints into the mid 70s, producing heat indices around 105.
Will hold off on issuing an Excessive Heat Watch, but will keep
the mention in the HWO.

The heat and humidity will begin to lower Sunday as the H5
ridge begins to break down as a backdoor cold front drops into
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast with the front
in the area.

The front should be south of the region Monday, but lingering
lift across the region could produce some scattered convection.
Highs on Monday will be down into the upper 80s due to the cloud
cover and convection.

By Tuesday, high pressure centered over the Great Plains will
be bringing less humid air into the region. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Barry will shift slowly east across the Ohio
Valley region tonight into Wednesday. We seem to be in a bit of
a lull across our area at the moment with mainly just some very
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of the hi res
models including the HRRR are showing some additional energy
pivoting up across our area later this evening into the early
morning hours. Will try to hit this with a tempo -tsra at the
TAF sites. After that passes, more widespread shower activity
is expected to overspread the TAF sites through the overnight
hours and into Wednesday as the better forcing associated with
the remnants works east. Some embedded thunder will be possible
but think the prevailing ptype will be showers. Cigs will also
gradually lower into MVFR later tonight and possibly into IFR
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Cigs should then
graduallylift back through MVFR category as the more
widespread pcpn begins to taper off and the remnant low pushes
off to the east.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Short term concerns remain convective trends through the period.
Severe threat along with possible flash flood threat as well
mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Iowa MCV has developed convection along a weak leftover boundary
over southern MN. Outflow from the established convection is
lifting across the southern portion of the metro and could work
into the metro this evening. Will have to keep a small PoP and
mention coverage term for isolated/scattered wording through this
evening. Expect this activity to wane through about 03z.

Overall 12Z HIRES models and latest available HRRR continue to
show development of another complex over South Dakota this
evening and racing to southwest MN by 12z WED. Will follow that
trend for now and hopefully see a decreasing trend or drop the
complex dropping farther to the south and exit the CWA during the
morning. Then redevelopment and location where this will take
place remains the main challenge. Will hold onto the high end PoPs
from the NBM especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
It will all depend on what develops convectively overnight. The
12Z ECMWF holds off on overall development until the actual upper
trough moves in late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night. Also,
held onto the severe wording across the southern CWA for mainly
Wednesday afternoon/night.

Heavy rain/flash flood threat remains and will also depend on
where significant boundaries develop/remain so have opted to
forgo a flash flood watch for the CWA at the moment. Strong lift
and impressive moisture transport moving across the area with
PW`s nearing 2 inches should still produce significant rainfall
rates, most likely 3-4 inches an hour once again.

Any overnight complex should exit to the east Wednesday night,
taking the severe/heavy rain threat with it.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Hot and humid weather will continue through the end of the work
week, with Friday still looking to be the hottest day of the week.

By Thursday, the upper trough will have lifted north of the area.
A strengthening west to east jet will lift slightly north and
allow the thermal ridge to begin expanding northward across the
area. Southwesterly flow will persist Thursday and highs around 90
degrees with dew points climbing into the 70s will make for
another hot day.

The thermal ridge axis looks to move through late Thursday night
through Friday morning. Continued SSW flow will bring slightly higher
dew points northward with most guidance suggesting mid-70s are
reasonable. Temperatures in the lower 90s still look on track, so
heat index values should exceed 100 degrees during the day Friday.

For this weekend, Saturday looks to be the best chance to be dry
for most, although isolated thunder is possible given the unstable
airmass in place. A decent upper trough looks to drop in from the
northwest as the main upper jet streak shifts east of the Great
Lakes, which would bring our best chance for storms along an
approaching cold front as early as Saturday night. This cool front
will drop through overnight and lead to a cooler trend into early
next week. High pressure will build in from Canada behind the
front, with dew points likely falling into the 50s and daytime
highs maxing out in the 70s for the most part, but a few 80 degree
readings will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Scattered thunderstorms continue near RWF late this evening, but
they should be on a weakening trend during the next few hours.
Mostly dry overnight, but a complex of weakening thunderstorms
will push into western MN early Wednesday morning, likely
degrading to a few showers by the time it reaches eastern MN.
Additional thunderstorms will fire along a front Wednesday
afternoon/evening which will pose a severe threat. Continued the
PROB30 mention at all the TAF sites due to the uncertainty with
timing and placement of the thunderstorm complex(es). Will need
to watch for patchy fog overnight, given the light wind and
recent rain.


KMSP...The potential for showers continues to be too low to
mention in the TAF Wednesday morning, with a better chance during
the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds light and variable.
Fri...VFR. Isolated TSRA. Winds SW 5 kts becoming NW.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




...Update to aviation forecast discussion...



 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

As of this afternoon, the isolated convection from this morning in
north central KS has diminished. Furthermore, there is currently
a cluster of storms near Wichita, a general weakening trend is
favored as it moves east into an environment with more inhibition,
which would keep us dry through the afternoon and evening. A
ridge sits over the Southern Plains with the ridge axis expected
to shift eastward as we head through the overnight hours as a lee
trough strengthens to the west of our CWA. This will allow the
pressure gradient to strengthen somewhat and maintain
southwesterly flow through the short-term forecast period, with
morning lows expected to fall back to around the mid 70s.

The best forcing for convection overnight into early Wednesday
morning appears to be associated with an embedded shortwave moving
through the Dakotas, keeping the highest precip chances well north
of the CWA. However, RAP/HRRR soundings from north central KS
show WAA in the 850-700mb layer, which could provide lift
sufficient enough to develop a few elevated storms on an isolated
basis near sunrise, given CAPE within 500-1000 J/kg above 700mb.
As a result, have added slight chance PoPs in north central KS
after 06Z and lasting until around sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Transitioning into Wednesday, the multi-day excessive heat event
looks to begin by afternoon...

A few showers and/or isolated storms may persist through the morning
hours with WAA near 700 mb. Otherwise, any thin layer of cloud cover
near 700 mb should scatter by late morning and allow for rapid
warming to occur. Afternoon temperatures are progged to reach the
mid 90s to near 100. Dew points are expected to remain quite
uncomfortable in the upper 60s and low 70s resulting in heat index
values in the 105 to 110 degree range. With this persist heat
expected through at least Saturday, have opted to upgrade the area
to an Excessive Heat Warning from Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday evening. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough is progged
traverse the High Plains Wednesday afternoon, developing
thunderstorms across eastern CO/western NE along the lee trough.
There is the potential for these to grow upscale and reach the
western counties Wednesday evening. As the shortwave lifts
northeastward and away from the convection and an overall
unfavorable environment for MCS maintenance, thunderstorms will
likely dissipate near/prior to entering central/north central KS.

Otherwise, the hot and dry pattern looks to continue through the end
of the week as the midlevel ridge remains across the southeastern
half of the CONUS. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s
combined with humid conditions will yield heat index values from 105
to 110. Furthermore, little relief will be felt overnight with
temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to near 80. The pattern
looks to finally break down as a midlevel trough across the Pacific
Northwest ejects across Northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday,
shunting a cool front through the area late Sunday into Monday. This
will provide some relief from the heat with temperatures in the 80s
by Monday. In addition, the frontal passage could provide some
rainfall as well. Beyond Monday, the stout midlevel ridge looks to
remain west of the area with more-comfortable conditions remaining
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

A 925mb jet over central and north-central KS combined with low
level WAA might be enough to get a few storms going overnight.
Both the HRRR and RAP now show isolated convection in central KS
by 07Z. However, confidence currently remains a little too low to
mention at terminals tonight, but will monitor trends. LLWS
associated with the aforementioned jet could impact the KMHK
terminal from 09Z through 11Z with southerly winds around 35 kts
at 1500 ft AGL. Otherwise, southerly surface winds will increase
and become gusty by mid to late morning Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg/Picha
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Teefey