Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/15/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

 558 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Crop of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift
to the east around 10-15kts until sunset or so and then become
isolated thereafter until midnight. Brief heavy rain, small hail and
gust outflow winds will be the main aviation hazards through
midnight. A similar crop of showers and storms is forecast for
Monday.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be hot across the entire area this week as strong
upper level high pressure dominates New Mexico. Showers and storms
will continue to develop over the high terrain each afternoon Monday
and Tuesday before pushing into nearby valleys and highlands during
the late afternoon and evening hours. A drier airmass will filter
into northwestern New Mexico Wednesday through Friday and force the
majority of the storm action into the southern half of the state.
Upper level high pressure will shift slowly northeast into the Great
Plains this weekend, opening the door for a more traditional monsoon
weather pattern early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor loop shows upper level high pressure centered
over the ABQ metro area today with storms forming in the surrounding
higher terrain. The 12Z PWAT of 0.97" at KABQ was the highest value
in over a week, which is above climo for July 14th. 12Z to 18Z model
guidance indicates similar storm evolution to yesterday as outflows
congeal storm action in central NM this evening. The 12Z HREF and 19Z
RAP are the most bullish with storms across the ABQ metro early this
evening as the upper level high backs off into the Gila region.

The upper high will focus over southern NM Monday and Tuesday as a
50 kt upper level jet axis moves through the central Rockies. This
will improve instability over northern NM and allow more organized
storm structures to propagate onto the high plains of eastern NM.
Models have been consistent with this pattern as well as developing
storms with higher QPF into central NM and the ABQ metro area each
evening.

A drier airmass will move into the northwestern half of the state
Wednesday and Thursday behind the exiting upper level wave over the
central Rockies. Surface dewpoints are shown to fall into the 30s
which will increase the diurnal temperature range over northern NM.
High temps may approach 100F around Farmington each of these days.
The main focus for convective activity will be over northern Mexico
and the Gila region where low level moisture remains in place.

Extended models have been at odds with convective coverage over NM
starting next weekend and no change was advertised on 12Z models
today. The GFS is now very aggressive with the upper high moving into
the Great Plains and allowing a deep moisture plume to shift north
into NM. The EC shows the high center stronger and centered over NM
with much less deep layer moisture. The forecast period then enters
our most climatologically favored timeframe for robust monsoon storm
coverage over the state so fingers are crossed on the GFS solution.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft is slowly relocating farther southwest of where
it was 24 hours ago, and consequently storms are being steered in
different directions. This is allowing storms to sustain themselves
better to the east of the Sangre de Cristos. Otherwise, the pattern
is quite similar to that of yesterday. Into tonight, good to
excellent RH recovery is forecast for most zones through dawn Monday.

The dome of high pressure aloft will continue to loiter over NM
through the first part of the week, with meager to modest moisture
cycling around the anticyclone. Daily rounds of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will continue with locally gusty thunderstorm
outflows and lightning being the most prominent fire weather
threats. Outside of precipitation, hot temperatures will persist,
staying slightly above average for the next few days while afternoon
humidity drops to 15 to 25 percent in lower elevations.

A belt of stiffer westerly flow will shove high pressure farther
south by Wednesday and more-so into Thursday. Drier air will
consequently filter into northwestern zones Wed and then over the
remainder of northern NM Thursday, limiting storms there. For next
weekend, high pressure is still expected to re-center north
northeast of NM, potentially drawing moisture back into NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

42



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 657 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Forecast challenge during this period is focused around
precipitation chances and severe weather risk.

At 18Z, warm front position was about on the Miss river with
dewpoint rises of 8-9F from east to west. SBCAPE values are
already 2k J/Kg with a very weak cap expected over the next hours.
Surface forcing/convergence is very weak along the boundary but
could nudge isolated thunderstorms as the front lifts northeast.
A few showers have popped west of Dubuque already. This axis will
shift northeast through the afternoon and evening. By mid-evening,
it parallels I-94 per latest RAP forecasts. The latest CAMs have
isolated thunderstorms on this boundary through sunset. Current
forecast has isolated thunderstorms shifting northeast on that
boundary.

A modest shortwave is working through SD /near KABR/ at this time
with the swirl clearly depicted in GOES imagery. This will
continue to track into a growing convectively unstable air mass
over MN /2500 J/Kg and SPC says a watch is likely ahead of it.
Mean flow will take this thunderstorm complex east while elements
will try to build southeast into the inflow. Current CAM solutions
target the I-94 corridor and north for storms. BUT, there is a
chance the instability axis from central MN to KDBQ currently
could provide an opportunity for the system to head more sewrd -
just southwest of I-94 in WI. This pattern/front is all evolving
northeast with time so, will need to monitor the thunderstorm
complex track carefully.

The forecast has been updated to increase thunderstorm chances
tonight along and north of I-94. Stout 100+ J/Kg convective
inhibition southwest of I-94 should limit convective development
southward, provided pattern evolves newrd through the evening.
Heavy rain, wind gusts to 50 mph, and lightning are the threats
overnight.

The low-level moisture transport increases to the west of the
complex overnight, behind the shortwave. This timing could cause
a flash flooding threat on/north of the boundary left over by the
leading complex. The best transport is into northern WI and the
12z HREF /ensemble of CAMS/ targets the Highway 8 corridor roughly
/or north/ with 3-6". This will need to be monitored closely as a
southward shift to the convection could bring the rain max into
Taylor/Clark counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Active summer pattern upcoming with heat/storms the main hazards.

Low-level moisture transport will remain directed across northern WI
in association with an upper shortwave trough. Some storms may be
ongoing across areas mainly north of I-94 in the morning. Diurnal
redevelopment is possible associated with any outflow boundaries
or the shortwave, but confidence on this evolution is low.
Additional storms could fire along the cold front back across MN
and sink southeast into the evening. With NAM soundings showing
capping near and south of I-90, expect the highest chances
generally across central/northern WI. Any storms trying to sink
south into the I-90 corridor during the evening would likely be on
a weakening trend given the strong cap/marginal shear. For areas
to the north, heavy rain remains a concern given the persistent
moisture transport/PWATs > 1.5 inches. A few strong/severe storms
are possible, but this will depend on destabilization or
formation of a more organized complex. Available shear in the 0-3
layer is only around 20-30 kts, so expect the severe threat
overall to be on the lower end. Highs again will be well in the
80s to low 90s, likely coolest over central/northern WI if more
clouds/storms remain. Tightening of the surface gradient ahead of
the front and more wind in the mid levels to mix will result in
southwest winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range.

Very warm and humid conditions will continue Tue-Wed as area remains
on edge of large upper ridge to the south. Periodic shower/storm
chances will continue with the surface front nearby and models
indicating embedded upper troughs passing around the periphery of
the ridge. Confidence though on the details of convection are quite
low with timing/placement of such waves, limiting confidence. The
strongest signal at this point is late Wed/Wed night with 12Z runs
of the GFS/ECMWF sliding a shortwave trough along the
international border. Instability/shear parameter space would
support strong/severe storms, but confidence in placement of
storms is low. Highs will range from the mid 80s to low 90s.

The focus shifts towards the heat late in the week as the ridge builds.
The GFS/ECMWF operational runs have been at odds the past few
days with the placement of the upper ridge, but the GFS looks to
be trending in the direction of the warmer ECMWF with less of a
trough into the Great Lakes late this week. That said, some
differences do still exist on the longwave evolution this coming
weekend. The ECMWF continues to show 925 mb temps of 28-32C Thur-
Sat along and south of I-90, with the GFS not quite as warm. The
warmer ECMWF could support highs in the mid 90s to near 100 in
some areas. Given the flat upper ridge (uncertainty on northward
extent of warmest air) and front sitting relatively close by,
which could spawn convection on the edge of the strong capping,
still some question on how warm it gets, but potential is there
for a period of dangerous heat for parts of the area late this
week. Lows during this time may be well into the 70s along with a
very muggy, humid airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The nearly stationary front was across eastern Minnesota into
northeast Iowa early this evening. Convection had developed along
the front over northeast Iowa and was generally drifting to the
northeast. Another area of convection was ongoing over northern
Minnesota with some activity trying to form over south central
Minnesota. The surface front is expected to drift northeast across
the area tonight and as it does, some convection will remain
possible along it. However, confidence on where this will be is
low but based on current trends, some activity could eventually
get close enough to KLSE to necessitate the inclusion of some
thunder this evening. The activity over Minnesota is being forced
by a short wave trough working slowly east across the region and
is on the northern edge of the mid-level capping. This capping
looks to slowly spread east through the night and if the
convection continues, it should pass by both airports to the north
during the overnight hours. In general, expecting VFR conditions
with some mid to high level clouds and gusty south winds Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baumgardt
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...04




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...Updated for 00z Aviation...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Synoptic Overview:

H5 analysis doesn`t look all too surprising for a middle of July
pattern. 588 dam height contour currently positioned over Iowa, with
flow less than 20 knots. Stronger flow within height gradient over
the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces, keeping the bulk
of the forcing up that way. Vorticity max, though rather week, over
South Dakota is providing weak forcing some convection during the
late morning and early afternoon hours well northwest of the CWA
today. Remnants of Barry continue to slowly work their way up the
Mississippi River Valley which will be one perturbation that gets
introduced to the large scale pattern over the central CONUS. A few
short-waves still possible to work their way through the relatively
zonal flow over the next 3 to 4 days.

Today and Tonight:

Yesterday`s short-wave and the boundary linked with it have shifted
eastward, keeping any of its impacts northeast of the CWA this
afternoon. There are two aspects of the setup that will be of
interest for this afternoon and evening. The first, is the low-level
flow remains relatively weak, and the flow at H85 is not as
favorably oriented to maximize WAA as it appeared prior. There still
will be modest transport of warm-moist air into the region this
afternoon. The second, is the weak vorticity maximum along the short-
wave currently over South Dakota. The main focus today will be on
temperatures. The cloud cover with the convection over South Dakota
is not on any fast track to arrive in Iowa, which will leave clear
skies during peak heating. Model soundings don`t appear to favor
robust mixing this afternoon. Thus, high temperatures today will
largely be driven by isolation. The last few cycles of guidance have
been coming couple of degrees cooler for high temperatures today,
which is likely the right trend given the weaker WAA. However, with
plenty of insolation, will still likely need to keep temperatures a
tad above guidance (but lower than previously forecasted yesterday).
With dew point temperature in the lower 70s, still looking at heat
indices in the mid 90s. With regards to precipitation this afternoon
and evening, will keep the forecast mostly dry for the area, as the
bulk of the forcing moving out of South Dakota will be mainly
confined to central Minnesota through the evening. HRRR and other
CAMs do try to place a few isolated showers in the northern tier
counties, but nothing that appears to be of much consequence. GFS is
most robust with 3000 J/kg CAPE in the north and northwest, with NAM
and members of the HREF closer to 2000. There could perhaps be a few
airmass showers that develop, but with lack of any substantial
forcing will leave minimal POPs if any across the north overnight
into early Monday morning.

Monday and Tuesday:

Mid-level flow remains weak into Monday over Iowa as height gradient
remains over the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Southerly surface to H85
flow does pick up a tad into Monday afternoon as Barry moves north.
Again the orientation doesn`t necessarily maximize WAA but will
help to maintain warm-moist airmass over the region. In addition,
boundary-layer mixing appears to be more favorable with the slightly
increased flow. As with Sunday, model guidance appears to be backing
off of temperatures a little bit, likely in response WAA not being
nearly as strong and cooler low to mid-level temperatures. With
insolation and mixing, will elect to still keep high temperatures a
tad above guidance, though is slightly lower than was forecast the
other day. Heat index values will remain in the mid 90s for Monday.
POPs will remain dry due to the lack of forcing on Monday afternoon.
Late Monday into Tuesday, short-wave kicks off through the northern
Plains and develops a baroclinic zone that will move eastward.
Advancement of Barry remnants also contribute to this mid-level flow
perturbation. Axis of SBCAPE above 3500 J/kg develops along the
boundary from Grand Island, NE through Sioux City, IA to just west
of MSP. 12z NAM and GFS bring this boundary further south and east
into Iowa than previous runs, which will increase POPs across the
north and northwest portions of the CWA. Shear environment ahead of
the boundary in the unstable airmass isn`t all to impressive, with 0-
6 km bulk shear at best 20 knots. Thus there won`t be much
organization to convection early Tuesday morning across the
northwest, and will more likely be of MCS variety. Of more
uncertainty would be POPs the rest of the day Tuesday for
southeastern portions of the CWA associated with Barry remnants. 12z
GFS attempts to expand rain showers far enough west for this area to
be impacted, however NAM and other guidance aren`t as happy about
that, confining them right along the Mississippi River. For now,
will focus on defining POPs across the north and northwest as there
is better consensus and slightly higher confidence, while not
deviating far from blended guidance POPs for the southeast.
Temperatures will still be warm Tuesday afternoon, but clouds from
convection in the northwest, and clouds from Barry remnants in the
southeast will likely bring brief some relief. Tuesday afternoon
highs in central Iowa will be dependent on the extent of cloud
cover, and could reach the lower 90s if there is clearing during the
late morning. Overall, temperatures now looking a little cooler for
Tuesday then it did yesterday.

Extended:

Beyond Tuesday, mid-level pattern becomes modestly amplified.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be the main story, with
heat indices potentially pushing above triple digits. Local
mesoscale and boundary-layer processes will be need to be assessed
as Wednesday and Thursday draw closer, as cloud cover and mixing can
largely alter the temperatures. But overall, warm-moist air looks
favorable to settle in over Iowa. With respect to precipitation in
the extended, GFS depicts a short-wave that will bring a vort max
through that provides forcing for a few isolated showers. However
ECMWF still does not bring substantial forcing that far south into
Iowa. For now will just leave blended POPs in for Wednesday. By the
end of next week, ridge pattern amplifies, with H5 heights above 590
dam likely. There could be potential for some light rain showers as
there always is when warm-moist airmasses move into the Midwest
during July. However, the strong flow will remain will north into
Canada, meaning there will not be any substantial forcing for
organized events. Most locations in the CWA will have a decent dry
run over the next week due to this.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the TAF period.
Cloud cover will increase across northwest Iowa overnight and
Monday morning before diminishing, remaining VFR. Winds will
increase Monday, with 15 to 20 kt gusts out of the south.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Hagenhoff



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

 928 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...
930PM UPDATE:
Thunderstorms across the region appear to be diminishing with the
main threats coming from gusty to damaging winds as cold pools
out-run their updraft bases and shut the storms down from the
north end of the line dropping south. Otherwise, the high dBZs in
radar returns for these storms have been setting off hail
algorithms above 1 inch which are not verifying. A quick check of
KDP as overly high is showing that most of the strong cores are
simply excess rain. The PoPs were updated into the next 6 hours to
account for better timing in the line as it passes over the
reminder of northeast Montana. Model data output in hourly data
has been very poor for PoPs coverage and timing over the last
several days especially the HRRR and RAP. So, have used HREF and
MRMS as starting points in PoP to fill in and handed edited from
there. GAH


600PM UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast were focused on making hourly data sets
out to 24 hours. Have also updated PoPs to for the next 3 to 6
hours for thunderstorms that are rapidly moving into the CWA. GAH


AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Forecast for this afternoon remains relatively similar to the
morning iteration. Storms are beginning to fire over southwestern
portions of the region and will slowly increase in both intensity
and number as the afternoon and evening carries on. Severe weather
is still expected for many locations this evening and tonight,
with hail and severe winds as the main threats. Otherwise, the
rest of the forecast was only nudged some with more recent model
solutions.  Bigelbach


PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION:
The synoptic scale weather pattern features a persistent features
a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the central Rockies
and central plains, while a trough of low pressure aloft from the
northwestern US states and northern Rockies. This results in a
steady westerly or southwesterly flow, steering multiple periods
of showers and thunderstorms across northeast Montana.

The storm prediction center has our CWA outlined for a slight
chance for severe thunderstorms today, and our southern zones for
Monday.

While it may be sometimes advisable to trust a model blend and
ensembles for the chances of precipitation, that seems to be a bit
more difficult to do today, as there still exists some significant
model disagreement for the placement of the expected thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The NAM keeps most of the
precipitation near and south of Highway 200. The HRRR keeps it
near and south of the Missouri River. The CMCnh and GFS spreads
the storms out quite a bit more, with a significant storm moving
through Phillips County. The EC is virtually quiet and mostly dry.
Felt it was best to err on the side of caution and broadbrush
some of this precipitation chances in the forecast. Next shift
might be able to be more specific if better consensus emerges in
the models later today. Overall, given the threat of severe
thunderstorms today, I tried to include the gust front as it moves
through the CWA from west to east. A number of the hourly wind
models consistently pick up some version of this gust front,
similar to yesterday`s. Felt it was best to try and incorporate
that into the forecast grids for this afternoon and evening. Late
tonight, storm will dissipate away toward the east and southeast.
Monday, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected,
but better model agreement shows most of that activity remaining
near and south of Highway 200.

By Tuesday morning showers look to become a bit more widespread
before the afternoon heat kicks in.

Tuesday evening, the next round of storms arrives, but seems to be
limited more to far southern and southeastern portions of our CWA.

For the later half of the week, a calmer and drier weather
pattern will ease most of the storms away, temporarily.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR-MVFR

DISCUSSION: Showers and thunderstorms will push through the
region this evening and tonight. This could cause operations
impacts to airfields as the storms pass over. Ceilings will remain
mostly at VFR levels, though dips into MVFR visibility levels
will be likely under the strongest storms. Ops for KGDV and KSDY
should be clear by 09Z.

WIND: Typically 5-15 kt over the next day or two and from the
west to northwest. Underneath active thunderstorms, variable
winds with gusts of from 20-40 kts may be possible this evening.

Bigelbach/GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 943 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Update issued to remove mention of almost all precipitation for
the remainder of the evening/overnight period. The line of
showers/thunder that moved into the western CWA a couple hours
ago has completely fallen apart...with just a few isolated light
showers remaining over NE Colorado...and these should dissipate
by 06z Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

High pressure and upper ridging continued to influence the
weather across the region today. Sunny skies prevailed along with
southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. RAP analysis and satellite showed
the upper ridge spanning across the northern half of the country
with high pressure centered over the desert southwest and Barry
located over Louisiana and southern Arkansas. At 2 PM MDT,
temperatures ranged in the 90s throughout the area as a few
thunderstorms began to develop along the Rockies. Additionally, a
few storms started to develop just northwest of Yuma county.

A disturbance working its way through the ridge axis is
anticipated to initiate storms along the Front Range (as is
currently occurring) and out onto the High Plains this afternoon
into the evening. Chances for a few thunderstorms spread into
eastern Colorado during this time, with activity forecast to stay
west of the Colorado border. However, weak flow and capping aloft
could prevent storms from making it very far into the region
before dissipating around sunset. Severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures fall into the 60s tonight, with a potential for some
cloud cover before midnight.

A similar setup is anticipated on Monday, with high pressure
remaining in place. Guidance does show a system working its way
across the northern Plains and another shortwave rounding the
ridge and generating storm chances. However, the better forcing
and shear look to be north and west of the forecast area, which
coincides with where SPC has a marginal/slight risk of severe
weather. Am thinking the region could see some showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, mainly locations
along and west of the Colorado border. Severe weather is not
anticipated, but will need to monitor this. Any storm activity
should dissipate before midnight Monday night, with low
temperatures forecast in the 60s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

For this long-term forecast period, the primary story will once
again be the heat that is expected to build next week. However,
there are still a few chances for storms that will need to be
monitored. This discussion will begin with storm chances for Tuesday
and Wednesday, then shift over to the heat and heat index concerns.

On Tuesday, the thunderstorm set-up is interesting and may be
conducive to some severe thunderstorms in the area. The Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather down to our
forecast area`s border with WFOs North Platte, NE and Boulder, CO. A
shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the northern Great
Plains with the NWS Goodland area on the southern periphery. Models
continue to struggle with how the ridge builds in later this week
and thus moisture flow into the area and/or the extent of drying air
across Colorado. These differences are causing large discrepancies
in the forecast instability across the area. Overall, think 1000-
1500 j/kg SB Cape seems reasonable. 850-500 mb lapse rates should
exceed 8 c/km, reaching as high as 9 C/km. What is interesting is
that wind shear also increases over the area, achieving values of 30-
40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear. With this amount of shear, in conjunction
with the instability, thinking there could be a few strong/severe
storms in the area Tuesday evening. They will form along a trough
axis over east Central Colorado before spreading northeast into NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska. Did forecast slight chance/chance pops so
storms should be more on the isolated side. Precipitable water
readings should be around 1.25 inches, which is around the 80th
percentile in terms of atmospheric moisture. While heavy downpours
are possible, there should be a lot of dry air near the surface so
evaporation will reduce overall rainfall amounts. Speaking of dry
air near the surface, DCape readings should be above 1000 j/kg,
making damaging winds as the primary threat with these storms.

On Wednesday, an additional shortwave trough will move through
although this one currently seems weaker. Cape values of 1000-1500
j/kg are once again expected but wind shear should be slightly
lower...0-6 km bulk shear around 30 kts. Storms should form once
again along a trough axis, but this time that should be over western
Kansas. Will add a mention in the hazardous weather outlook of
strong storms possible Wednesday.

Now to the heat. The heat is expected to really build across the
High Plains on Tuesday, lasting through at least Saturday now
according to the latest guidance. Many models are coming into better
agreement about the high pressure ridge building in, reducing the
chance for a front to slide south and disrupt the heat wave. Where
models are struggling is the boundary layer moisture content. This
is a big problem as the low level moisture will directly impact heat
indices and therefore potential heat headlines (heat index readings
of 105 or higher). For now, will continue to highlight the upcoming
heat wave in graphics and hazardous weather outlook. Felt this path
is appropriate given the lower confidence in heat index readings at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 502 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

With high pressure over the region thru the forecast period...VFR
conditions are expected for both terminals(KGLD/KMCK) w/ just
high clouds.

Winds for KGLD...S around 10kts thru 10z Monday...then SW around
10kts. By 20z...S around 10kts. Gusts up to 20kts from 00z-03z.

Winds for KMCK...S around 10kts thru 09z Monday...then light/
variable. By 20z...SE around 10kts. Gusts up to 20kts from 00z-
02z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Gray ME

 922 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will end this evening as a
cold front slides offshore. A weak surface trough will cross the
area on Monday with a few clouds. Otherwise warm and dry weather
is expected as high pressure gradually builds in through Monday
night. The high retreats offshore by Tuesday with the return
flow bringing increasingly hot, humid, and unsettled weather for
the remainder of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
920 PM Update...
Just a few sprinkles left over portions of north central NH
this evening. These should dry up in the next hour. Otherwise
forecast is on track with temperatures dipping into the lower
50s across the mountains and into the mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. Rockingham, Strafford, and York Counties may just
touch 60 by morning.



640 PM Update...
Showers are dissipating with the loss of daytime heating as they
move southeast out of Canada and into the mountains. Expect this
trend to continue with showers drying up over the next hour or
two. Have tapered PoPs down using latest HRRR output which has a
good handle on the situation. Added cloud cover to the
Connecticut River Valley and the mountain valleys where we are
forecasting morning dense fog. No other changes at this time.


Previous discussion...
At 18z...the surface cold front was situated along the coastal
plain. The upper impulse and surface front will slide offshore
by early evening taking scattered convection mainly showers with
isolated thunder with it. Overnight...scattered clouds with
patchy valley stratus and fog developing in the predawn hours.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Quiet Monday with a passing weak impulse and associated surface
trough crossing the area during the day with little fanfare. A
ridge of high pressure will gradually build in from the Great
Lakes and with comfortable humidity levels and ample sunshine
we`ll warm into the lower and mid 80s in all but the
international border area where upper 70s should be commonplace.

Mostly clear Monday night as the surface high slides offshore to
our south. Once again we should see some early morning valley
stratus and fog. Lows should be similar to tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hot and humid will be the rule through most of the upcoming weak
with the possibility of tropical downpours Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday will be a warm day but dewpoint temperatures will still
be reasonable. A warm front will be moving northeast toward the
forecast area which will spread showers into the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Wednesday the warm front moves through
with dewpoint temperatures rising into the low 70s. Heat
advisories might be needed Wednesday. A cold front will be
moving south Wednesday night. This front will stall over the
forecast area Thursday as the tropical moisture from Barry
approaches the forecast area. Tropical downpours are likely
Thursday. Thursday will be warm and sticky but clouds and rain
will limit surface heating so heat advisories not expected. The
frontal system moves north Thursday night ushering another surge
of hot weather with 850 temps 20-22C. Surface temperatures top
out in the lower to mid 90s and with dewpoint temperatures still
in the lower 70s heat advisories might be needed Friday. A cold
front moves through Saturday with a more comfortable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday Night/...VFR. Isold MVFR through 00z
Mon in -shra and isolated -tsra. Lcl IFR psb btw 08 and 12z Mon
and again Tue 08 to 12z in valley stratus and fog.

Long Term...VFR expected Tuesday. MVFR possible Tuesday night
and early Wednesday in showers and thunderstorms associated
with a warm front. VFR during the day Wednesday and then
MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Saturday morning associated with the remnants of Barry and a
cold frontal passage Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday Night/...Winds briefly near 20 kt in
gusts this evening with the cold frontal passage otherwise quiet
on the waters with winds and seas below SCA threshold.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below small craft
criteria.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord, NH ASOS remains out of service. It is unknown when
parts will be available to fix the system. During the outage,
TAFs will continue to be issued for Concord without amendments
scheduled. Climate data for Concord will also be affected,
although backup sources may be used to fill in data after the
fact.

The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower which was
severely damaged in a winter storm is rebuilt.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Schwibs
LONG TERM...Hawley



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

 655 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
especially south of a line from roughly Winamac to Bluffton
Indiana. Some locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail
are possible through early evening with these storms. Hot and
humid conditions will continue on Monday with peak afternoon heat
indices in the low to mid 90s. There is also a continued chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Monday, mainly in the afternoon. The
remnants of tropical system Barry will lift into the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday with a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms. As this system departs, dangerous heat and humidity
are expected for Thursday and Friday with peak afternoon heat
indices in excess of 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Main forecast issues for the short term include convective chances
through this evening, and then again for Monday. Heat indices may
also become more of a factor as we get into Monday afternoon.

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon indicating agitated cu
field beginning to transition into scattered showers/storms from
just north of the Quad Cities to near Rensselaer, This axis
represents position of stalled out sfc front and should continue
to be focus for additional development through the remainder of
afternoon. Placement of this front has resulted in a sharp
southwest to northeast sfc dew point gradient ranging from the low
to mid 70s far southwest to the low to mid 50s far northeast. RAP
analyses from 18Z indicate MLCAPES on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg
in association with zone of pooled moisture with the stalled
frontal boundary. With subtle mid level height rises today across
the Mid MS Valley and western Great Lakes, shear profiles have
become minimal with deep layer shear and effective shear less than
20 knots. Would expect pulsey nature in this moderate CAPE/low
shear environment, and slow movement of cells with weak steering
flow and pooled 1.75-2.00 inch PWAT axis could yield some
localized heavy rainfall late afternoon/early evening. Expecting
some downtick in convection after 01Z or 02Z with loss of diurnal
instability and overall lack of distinct mid/upper level forcing.
Instability axis should begin to migrate slightly northeastward
this evening and kept slight chance PoPs intact through late
evening. It is possible a few isolated showers and storms may
persist overnight, but will let evening shift assess trends.

Attention for Monday will then shift to a progressive northern
stream wave kicking out of the northern Plains, reaching the
western Great Lakes by daybreak. Some uptick in low level west-
southwest flow in advance of this feature should allow for old
stalled frontal boundary to gradually shift eastward as a warm
front on Monday, allowing higher dew point air to overspread the
forecast area. Extent of insolation and impacts on high
temperatures will be a big factor in heat indices, but with higher
dew points Monday forecast area-wide, would suspect low-mid 90s
dew points to be more common. Better low level moisture on Monday
should lessen capping issues experienced across much of the area
today, and in warm/moist advective regime have kept low-mid chance
Pops for thunder in the afternoon. A continued very low shear
environment will be in place, so pulse-type storms should be the
rule again.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Perhaps a brief lull in higher rain chances Monday evening into
the overnight before deeper moisture returns once again in advance
of remnants of tropical system Barry. Slow ingestion of this
upper trough with the northern stream will result in prolonged
shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Wednesday evening.
Some concern for locally heavy rainfall this period with
impressive 2+ inch PWAT axis residing across the area.

Thursday still appears to mark a transition to a potentially more
dangerous combination of heat and humidity. Eastward ejection of
remnants of Barry will allow for quick recovery in mid-upper level
heights, and strengthening southwest upper flow should advect a
strong low level thermal ridge (850 mb temps +22 to +25 deg C)
across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Chance of
storms could linger into Thursday, particularly across the east
where capping could be more delayed with the building mid level
ridging. Peak afternoon heat indices Thu-Fri in excess of 100
degrees appear increasingly likely with a chance some locations
could top 105.

The high heat/humidity will persist into late weekend, although
confidence in magnitude diminishes some as series of northern
stream waves could dampen the ridge enough to allow for showers
and storms to reach the southern Great Lakes. With this uncertainty,
kept PoPs on the low side for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Convection associated with quasi-stationary boundary remaining
just south of the terminals and expect quiet/VFR conditions to
persist through the overnight. Front will lift NW again tomorrow
morning. Some potential for showers/storms (mainly at KFWA) but
confidence in thunder timing and coverage remains low at this
point due to relatively weak forcing and marginal instability.
Will hold off on any thunder mention for now and re-assess with
06Z package.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...AGD


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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 701 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

A weak frontal boundary sagged into the Sandhills this morning. The
models show the front as a focus for scattered thunderstorms this
evening. Moisture is pooling behind the front and the RAP model
shows precipitable water increasing of over 1.50 inches which would
support a locally heavy rainfall threat. Winds aloft are actually
pretty strong with 30-45 kts at the 500mb-300mb levels. The MLCAPE
around 3000 J/KG across nrn Nebraska could support a few strong to
severe storms this evening. The upper level support is a subtropical
rotating through nrn Colorado.

If the thunderstorms form as expected this evening, then the front
could move further south and be the focus additional moisture
pooling and storm development late Monday afternoon and evening
across the central Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska. The NAM12 shows a
40-50kt 500mb Jetlet Monday afternoon which is the basis for the
slight severe thunderstorm risk as suggested by the SPC. Rain
chances ramp up to the likely category Monday evening with a
more expansive area of precipitable water above 1.50 inches.

The temperature and dew point forecast overnight through Monday
night leans on the model blend plus the guidance blend plus bias
correction. This is on the warmer, more moist, side of the forecast
envelope. Heat indices should rise to around 100F across Boyd county
where a heat advisory is in place Monday afternoon. Later forecasts
may add Holt county to the advisory where heat indices will approach
100F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The model consensus, which is in good agreement, suggests a weak
frontal boundary will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska all week
and into next weekend. This is likely the result of strong winds
aloft across the nrn Plains dictating low pressure to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies and outflow from storm activity across the nrn
Plains. This will pool moisture across Nebraska but at the same
time, h700mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 16C or warmer
ending rain chances.

The forecast is basically dry after Tuesday because the strong cap
allows just isolated rain chances. The model blended temperature
forecast is cool considering h700mb temperatures will range from 16C
to 18C, even across nrn Nebraska. If deep mixing occurs then the
warm air aloft would support highs in the low 100s as indicated by
the ECM model.

The temperature forecast is much cooler with highs in the upper 80s
to upper 90s and heat advisory conditions do not appear imminent;
dew points are expected to remain in the 60s. Given the caliber of
the warm air moving in aloft, however, the forecast could be too
cool and there is a chance that heat advisory conditions will become
widespread, especially across ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Scattered thunderstorms across northern and western Nebraska
should gradually weaken and end after sundown. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions to prevail. South winds will gradually decrease
this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 757 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2019

Surface ridge remains over lower Michigan and the eastern Upper
Peninsula this afternoon keeping us sunny, but warmer than yesterday
with southerly return flow. An MCS this morning mostly collapsed but
a few thunderstorms and plenty of cloud debris remain evident on
satellite this afternoon tracking through the Boundary Waters and
farther north towards Thunder Bay. Expect these showers and storms
will maintain themselves and drop southeastward across the eastern
arm of Lake Superior this evening and overnight following the 850-
500 mb thickness gradient and 700 mb wind, decaying as it runs into
the surface ridging. For everyone else, we`re looking at a dry
evening, though one that will be warm and humid.

But that`s where the confidence ends. The forecast for late tonight
and tomorrow remains clear as mud, owing to convection chaos. Best
guess right now is there will be two primary waves of precip,
besides the aforementioned decaying MCS over eastern Lake Superior.
The first wave will initially form as a convective cluster in MN and
track eastward. Synoptic flow trajectories would take it primarily
south of the Wisconsin line, but with the western U.P. being at the
nose of the LLJ, could be enough theta-e advection to support
renewed storm development late tonight into tomorrow morning,
primarily after 09z. The 12z CAMS are fairly split on rain chances
in the morning, with the NSSL-WRF and extended range HRRR showing
fairly robust storms across much of the area, but the NAM much drier
until the afternoon. For now, have put high-end chance POPs along
the WI border but tapered them off to slight chance or nothing
closer to MQT. Let`s see what happens.

The primary forcing for the second wave of precip will be a mid-
level short wave/surface cold front combo pushing across the Upper
Midwest Monday afternoon. It`s modeled not to reach Upper Michigan
until after 00z Tue but given how moist it will be, any prefrontal
trough or other minor disturbance out ahead of it could trigger the
next round of storms. For what it`s worth, the NAM hi-res nest
brings an impressive bow echo into our area tomorrow afternoon. But
remember, being drier in the morning it allows more instability to
build. Now in addition to the comparatively obvious forcing, the
abundance of moisture in the atmosphere (and therefore low LCLs and
very little CIN) means it`s certainly not impossible that we see
lake breeze storms in the afternoon as well. With so much
uncertainty in how these waves of precip will play out, took a
pretty broad- brushed approach to POPs keeping everything chance
or low-end likely. With strong instability, anything that does
develop will have a good shot of containing thunder.

Any storms that do form will also be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall, given that PWATs will be rising to 1.7-2.0". With
relatively slow steering flow as well (700 mb flow around 25-30 kts,
NAM modeled Bunkers Right vectors less than 20 kts), can`t dismiss
the potential for flash flooding tomorrow either depending on how
things evolve.

Other noteworthy feature to tomorrow`s forecast will be the winds.
With WAA and a LLJ increasing to 35-40 knots by late afternoon, will
have some pretty decent gusts all day and especially in the
afternoon. Have 20 knot gusts in the forecast across the board and
it`s certainly possible that some places gust even higher than that.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2019

An unsettled pattern will prevail throughout much of this forecast
period, with the first responsible feature being a low tracking
across Northern Ontario from west to east on Monday night. Looks
like most of the U.P. will see a brief break early Tuesday before
additional showers and thunderstorms reappears later on Tuesday,
thanks to a perturbation moving through as the remnants of Barry
pushes further inland/northward. From Wednesday through the rest
of the week, upper-level ridging builds in behind Barry`s remnants
as it gets absorbed into the overall pattern. This leaves the door
open for perturbations to continue to track right across the Upper
Great Lakes, particularly in the Wednesday night - Thursday night
time frame. By next weekend, guidance becomes less clear, with
lower confidence in potential solutions. What should be kept in
mind is that despite mentionable PoPs throughout much of this
week, all of this activity will be more hit and miss in nature,
with details of more specifics not able to be brought into better
light until closer to the forecast time period.

With ample warm air in place, temperatures will run above normal
through the week, with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees,
particularly on Tuesday. Lows will also run above normal,
struggling to drop below the mid 60s tomorrow night. Look for 60s,
albeit lower, to dominate for most locations throughout the
remainder of the week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 751 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2019

VFR conditions are expected this evening. After that confidence
decreases significantly. In general, will see mid to high clouds
building in from southwest and SHRA or TSSHRA developing late
tonight into Monday. There is high uncertainty regarding the
timing/location with the showers and storms so have kept only a
mention of VCSH. Any heavy showers and storms tomorrow could briefly
cause category reductions in cig and/or vis as well as locally
gustier winds.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2019

Will see winds increasing to near 20 knots out of the south tonight
and Monday as a system passes to the north but then stay light until
Thursday when they again approach 20 knots out of the south. With
more humid air moving in and numerous chances for thunderstorms this
week, will likely see at least patchy marine fog develop Monday
(with areas of dense fog certainly not out of the question) and then
be stuck with it much of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...RJC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 913 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will approach from the north overnight before
stalling across the region on Monday. Upper level ridging will
also build across the area early next week as moisture increases
in advance of the remnants of Barry. This feature in combination
with another weak front should result in increasing coverage of
showers and storms into mid and late week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 910 PM EDT Sunday...

Area remains in overall weak subsidence this evening between
deeper moisture to the southwest and the next weak upstream cold
front arriving from the north. Have seen isolated convection
develop along the instability gradient to the north ahead of the
front, and could see some of this make it into northeast
sections before fading per latest radar loops. Thus will leave
in isolated convection in spots over the next couple of hours
espcly where dewpoints have jumped into the 70s mainly
north/east of LYH. Latest HRRR also has isolated showers/storms
lingering along/east of the I-64 corridor with most of this gone
by midnight. Otherwise outside of debris clouds north and some
stratus west, will see mainly clear skies with patchy fog likely
mainly valleys over the northwest. Low temps also a bit more
muggy overnight as dewpoints start to return across the region
by morning, with lows mainly 60s west to 70-75 east after a
very warm early evening.

Previous discussion as of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Across the area temperatures were above normal and most locations
were experiencing mostly sunny to sunny skies. The exception was the
far southwestern sections of the region where there was a better
defined cumulus cloud field. It is this same location were isolated
showers or storms are still forecast heading into the early evening
hours. Cloud cover was also starting to increase a bit in areas
north of the I-64 corridor. This is another location we are watching
for the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop over, or move into the area from the north, as we head into
and through the evening hours. Any precipitation that is across the
area this evening is not expected to survive past midnight.

Through the remainder of the overnight hours, regions east of the
Blue Ridge are expected to remain mostly clear to clear. Across the
mountains, especially those of southeast West Virginia south into the
Northern Mountains of North Carolina, areas of low level stratus
cloud cover is expected to develop, and some patchy mountain/river
valley fog is expected late tonight, lasting into a few hours after
sunrise on Monday.

On Monday afternoon, we are expecting better coverage of showers and
storms across the area, especially the western half, as compared to
today. A frontal boundary stalled near the VA/NC border is expected
to lift north across parts of the area on Monday, bringing with it
increased humidity and low level instability. The catch though is
this low level instability will be nearly underneath an upper level
shortwave ridge. So, we will have to positive of the one fighting
with the negative of the other, but even still, parameters are
looking more promising for mainly diurnally and differential heating
based convection to fire across mainly the ridge tops first then
drift into neighboring valleys and western sections of the Piedmont.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s across
the mountains with lower 70s across the Piedmont. High temperatures
Monday are forecast slightly cooler than those of the today thanks
to increased cloud cover and precipitation from the low to mid 80s
across the mountains to the lower 90s across the Piedmont.

Confidence in the above forecast scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

The first few days of the week will feature the remnants of
Barry tracking north over the Mississippi Valley, then turning
east in response to westerly flow aloft at the mid-latitudes.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge in the western Atlantic will
stretch north across the southeastern and Mid Atlantic states
with 85H temps of +20 to +22 deg C. This will favor very warm
afternoons with temperatures in the low to mid 90s east, and
mainly in the 80s for the mountains. As the remnants of Barry
enter the Ohio Valley for mid-week, southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature will advect increasing low level moisture,
dewpoints creeping back into the 70s. Combination of heat and
dewpoints will likewise result in increasing heat indices with
potential for heat index to tease 100 across the piedmont.
Increasing moisture will also contribute to increasing CAPE
resulting in scattered showers and thundershowers, favoring the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Axis of Barry`s extratropical remnants is expected to cross the
Mid-Atlantic region Thursday, the crux of the deeper moisture
merging with a front and passing to our north. Never the less,
this axis of showers with embedded thunderstorms will be rain
efficient and feature higher rain rates its passage. Due to the
progressive nature, do not expect excessive rainfall to be an
issue.

Beyond Thursday, the upper ridge rebuilds with potential for
500 mb heights to test 595 dm. As such, pattern favors some very
warm temperatures for the weekend, 85h Temps of +23 to +24 deg
C, yeilding surface readings well into the 90s across southside
and into the piedmont. Dewpoints are also expected to remain
elevated, so heat indices may eclipse 100 for several days in a
row. Some relief may come from a pop-up afternoon/evening
showers/storms, but coverage is expected to be limited by a
westerly downslope wind at 85h mb and subsidence.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 731 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail across the region this evening into
tonight. The exception will be some very isolated, and brief
sub-VFR conditions associated with isolated shower/thunderstorm
development along and north of the I-64 corridor this evening.
Also, sub-VFR conditions are expected in the form of some
patchy mountain/river valley fog late night and early Monday
morning, as well as, some stratus cloud development over the
mountains during roughly the same time period. IFR/LIFR fog is
likely at KLWB late tonight into Monday morning. MVFR clouds are
possible at KBLF overnight into Monday morning.

Any sub-VFR conditions in fog and low clouds are expected to
rebound to VFR by the mid-morning. Isolated MVFR convection is
possible in the west Monday afternoon.

Forecast confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate
to high. The biggest challenge is the extent and ceiling height
of the expected stratus cloud development in the west
overnight.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

An upper ridge parked over the area will minimize precipitation
and sub-VFR conditions across the region MOnday afternoon and
evening through roughly Tuesday. Any precipitation will be
diurnal in nature, and any sub-VFR conditions will be confined
to primarily late night/early morning fog/stratus in the
mountain/river valleys.

Wednesday into Thursday, precipitation coverage will increase
as tropical moisture associated with the remnants of T.S. Barry
work its way into the area associated with an approaching then
passing cold front. This will allow for more coverage both
spatially and temporally for sub-VFR conditions.

By Friday, models differ as to how promptly this additional
moisture exits the region, so while sub-VFR coverage looks to be
less, it probably will not be zero.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

The ceilometer at LWB is having periodic problems which may
cause intermittent loss of data.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK
EQUIPMENT...DS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 557 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This afternoon a broad mid-level ridge remained stretched across
much of the CONUS, with Tropical Storm Barry progressing northward
across Louisiana and Arkansas.  Visible satellite imagery showed
some low/mid clouds in association with Barry extending as far north
as into northeast and east central KS.  However, there were enough
breaks in this cloud cover to still support decent afternoon heating
today with highs reaching into the low 90s.  With models showing
temperatures at or near the convective temperature across far east
central KS, cannot rule out the potential for a few isolated showers
and storms to pop-up through late this afternoon.  However, with
limited available moisture and lift present, confidence remains low
for this isolated development so have only some slight-chance PoPs.

For tonight, some short-range models show the potential for enough
low-level moisture to be present to support some very shallow fog
development briefly Monday morning around sunrise near river valleys
and in low-lying spots.  Due to low confidence, haven`t mentioned
fog in the forecast, but it will be something to monitor this
evening/overnight.  Otherwise, the continued northward progression
of the surface/mid-level lows associated with Barry will support
increasing coverage of low clouds across much of northeast and east
central KS Monday morning into the afternoon hours.  There is still
some model uncertainty with how long this cloud cover will linger
through the afternoon hours, which is resulting in a model spread of
nearly 10F degrees still for high temperatures across that area.
Have continued to trend a couple of degrees cooler across eastern KS
to account for this cloud cover with highs ranging from the mid 80s
to low 90s from east to west across the CWA, respectively. Much like
today, temperatures may be near the convective temperature tomorrow
to possibly support a few isolated showers/storms, however with very
little forcing present, confidence is quite low so only have some
slight chance PoPs mentioned for far east central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

By Tuesday, the remnants of Barry will start tracking further to the
northeast, which will allow the mid-level ridge to build back in
across the central U.S.  There is the potential for the ridge axis
to become more zonal by mid-week as a weak mid-level shortwave
trough tracks eastward across the Northern Plains. This passing
shortwave to the north may deepen enough to cause some embedded
disturbances within the mid-level flow to skim near the KS/NE border
to produce some scattered precipitation chances.  However,
confidence in any precipitation chances mid/late week are low due to
varying model solutions with how far north the ridge axis will be
able to build and, thus, where any embedded disturbances will track.
At this time, have some slight chance PoPs near the KS/NE border
Wednesday night, but otherwise have a dry forecast through the end
of the work week.  The mid-level ridge looks to steepen through the
latter half of the week and possibly even into next weekend as a mid-
level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.  As a result, this
pattern will support continued reinforcement of the heat and
humidity with steady warm, moist-air advection into the area.  The
GFS seems to be trending a few degrees cooler with high temperatures
by late week but it seems to be more of an outlier so have continued
to trend toward the warmer model guidance. With 850mb temperatures
surging into the 25C to 30C range by late week, it should support
high temperatures rising into the mid/upper 90s to low 100s starting
Wednesday persisting through at least the end of the work week.
These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to
low 70s will support heat index readings soaring into the 103 to 109
degree range through the end of the week and possibly even into
Saturday. As a result, continue to anticipate the need for heat
headlines for the latter half of the week.

Model solutions start to diverge by next weekend as some keep the
steep mid-level ridge in place while other models try to break down
the ridge some with embedded waves within the ridge axis possibly
tracking near the CWA.  Confidence at this time is low for any
precipitation chances, but it will be something to monitor in the
upcoming days as it could certainly have an impact on whether or not
the excessive heat persists into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The CU field has already begin to diminish over the last hour, and
this trend is expected to continue as the boundary layer
stabilizes. RAP forecast soundings show boundary layer moisture
to remain shallow with some mixing so ground fog formation appears
to be a low probability overnight. With this in mind will keep a
VFR forecast going. Think the CU field will return by the late
morning hours Monday with any precip chances to small to include a
mention in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters