Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/12/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
332 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will push west of the Rio
Grande this evening, bringing localized heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and perhaps some small hail to parts of the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return on Friday
afternoon, then some drier air aloft coming in from the east will
shift the focus for thunderstorms west to southwestern New Mexico
for the weekend. An upper high over New Mexico will keep
temperatures on the warm side through the weekend. Additional
moisture looks to return to the area next week as the upper high
drifts further to the east.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Outflow boundaries from thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle
which passed through our area overnight and this morning helped to
boost low level moisture across the region, especially along and
east of the Rio Grande. RAP analysis shows SBCAPE values
generally around 500 J/Kg just east of the Rio Grande, and above
1000 J/Kg over much of Otero and Hudspeth Counties, with very
little CIN over the entire area. Instability values drop off
markedly west of the Rio Grande, as surface dewpoints drop off
into the upper-30s to lower-40s. Expect on-going thunderstorms
to continue to increase in coverage along/near the Rio Grande,
with new outflow initiating new thunderstorms west of the Rio
Grande this evening as low level moisture increases. Activity
should slowly die down the further west you go.
Localized downpours, gusts to 50 mph, and small hail will be the
main threat with any storms through the remainder of the evening
hours. Localized blowing dust will also be possible.
Similar conditions will persist tomorrow (Fri), with weak to
moderate instability, and continued ENE to NE flow aloft, which is
often favorable for convection developing over the Sacramento
Mountains and Otero Mesa to propogate into the LC/EP areas.
Heading into the weekend, drier/continental air aloft will begin
to filter into the area from the northeast, while a surface high
over the Midwest, with a ridge axis extending SW into the Southern
Plains, cuts off Gulf of Mexico moisture. Residual moisture will
remain west of the Rio Grande, with the focus for thunderstorms
mainly staying west of the Continental Divide.
Recycled moisture will return to the area early next week as the
subtropical ridge attempts to shift to the east. Better conditions
look to return towards the middle and later part of the week as
the ridge continues to trend eastward, and a series of inverted
troughs keep the Sierra Madres to our south rather active.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 12/00Z-13/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 with isolated to scattered
VRB30G45KT 3-5SM BKN050-070 through 06Z and again after 18Z with
greatest coverage over area mountains. Winds mainly out of the
northeast to southeast 5-15KTS except near storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
region into next week. There has been an increase in moisture which
will provide enough fuel for storms to develop, especially over the
mountains and then moving onto the lowlands again for Friday. Drier
air will push into eastern areas this weekend which will keep storms
mainly confined to areas west of the Continental Divide. High
temperatures will continue to push the century mark and minimum
relative humidities generally in the mid teens to lower 20s across
the lowlands. Humidities will remain in the 20s and 30s over the
mountains. A more consistent monsoon pattern looks to become
established later next week as the upper high pushes east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 67 91 66 93 / 10 20 10 0
Las Cruces 70 96 70 97 / 20 20 10 0
Alamogordo 69 96 68 98 / 10 30 10 20
Cloudcroft 53 74 52 75 / 20 50 20 20
Truth or Consequences 72 96 71 98 / 20 10 20 20
Silver City 67 90 65 90 / 30 40 20 40
Deming 69 97 68 97 / 20 10 10 10
Lordsburg 72 97 69 97 / 20 20 10 20
West El Paso Metro 76 98 75 99 / 20 10 10 0
Dell City 70 98 70 100 / 0 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 75 100 73 101 / 10 10 10 0
Loma Linda 72 92 71 93 / 10 20 20 0
Fabens 75 98 75 100 / 20 10 20 0
Santa Teresa 71 96 70 98 / 20 10 10 0
White Sands HQ 75 97 75 98 / 20 20 20 0
Jornada Range 69 96 68 98 / 20 20 20 0
Hatch 69 98 69 99 / 20 20 20 10
Columbus 74 98 73 98 / 20 0 10 0
Orogrande 71 96 70 97 / 10 20 10 0
Mayhill 57 83 56 85 / 20 40 20 20
Mescalero 56 84 55 86 / 20 50 20 20
Timberon 54 81 54 83 / 20 40 10 20
Winston 59 90 57 89 / 30 40 20 40
Hillsboro 67 95 65 95 / 30 20 20 30
Spaceport 67 96 67 97 / 20 20 20 10
Lake Roberts 59 91 57 91 / 30 50 20 50
Hurley 65 93 63 92 / 30 30 10 30
Cliff 61 98 59 98 / 30 40 20 40
Mule Creek 69 93 66 93 / 20 40 20 30
Faywood 68 93 66 92 / 30 20 20 20
Animas 70 98 69 98 / 20 0 20 10
Hachita 69 97 67 97 / 20 0 10 10
Antelope Wells 70 96 69 97 / 20 0 20 10
Cloverdale 69 92 68 91 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
944 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will approach from the northwest reaching into central
North Carolina on Friday, before stalling over the area. This
lingering boundary in the area will maintain a good chance of
showers or thunderstorms into the weekend. High pressure will
develop aloft into early next week, limiting thunderstorm
activity as drier air moves in.
&&
.UPDATE / 944 PM EDT / THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heavy rain in thunderstorms has remained well north of the Cape Fear
region tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The latest short
term high resolution guidance remaining fairly dry tonight, and
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms return towards early
Friday morning around sunrise. Other than quick adjustments to the
precipitation forecast, no major changes needed.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Scattered convection this aftn was
enhanced slightly by upper level disturbance just along the NC
coast. A very moist air mass combined with dynamics aloft will
continue to aid in convective development into tonight as focus
shifts inland. SW steering flow should keep most storms moving
parallel to the coast with a little greater push than previous
days, as gradient tightens. This will lessen any flooding threat
due to faster movement of shwrs/tstms. Main severe threat will
remain north and west into northern half of NC where mid to
upper level dynamics was located and where SPC has a marginal
risk outlined. Upper ridge building back westward from Atlantic
toward SC/GA coast looked to help limit convection over much of
NE SC this aftn.
Soundings show inversion just below 500 millibars with decent
dry layer in the mid to upper levels. This may limit depth and
intensity of storms into early this evening, but could also
produce DCAPE which could induce gusty winds in vicinity of any
TSTM. Shortwave trough digging down from the north will spark
stronger storms to our north and west initially, but as it nears
the forecast area by midnight, expect decent chc of
thunderstorms tonight. NAM shows area or line of convection
reaching into the I-95 corridor after midnight, mainly between
06-09z and then weakening as it tracks toward the coast.
A front will follow mid to upper trough into Fri, but will lose
definition as it reaches into NC, but the trough will reach our
our forecast area and linger through Friday. This lingering
boundary and shortwave energy aloft on Friday will provide focus
and will enhance deeper convection on Fri. Winds will veer more
westerly in the low to mid levels which should steer storms
toward the coast. Overall, expect an active day on Friday. SPC
has marginal risk extending across most of our local area as
this trough lingers with a very moist and unstable air mass.
Main threat would be localized wet downbursts that could produce
damaging wind gusts.
The actual front will drop farther south but should remain just
north of local forecast area, cutting from west to east across
NC. Plenty of moisture will remain south of the front over our
area Fri night. Temps will remain in the mid 70s for lows
overnight in warm and humid air mass while temps on Fri should
reach around 90 once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...A weak sfc frontal boundary along with mid-
level energy passing through the area and 75% 1000-500mb RH will
lead to rain likely on Saturday (60% PoPs). The rain will taper off
Saturday night although small chances for shras/tstms persist (20-
30%). High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s Saturday, with low temps
Saturday night mainly in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Diminishing likelihood of rain for the second
half of the weekend, however rain chances continue through the
period. Heat indices in the 100-104 range expected each aftn.
Precip Chances: 20-30% for the most part each day (mainly diurnally-
driven shras/tstms), with a persistent thermal trough inland.
Temps: Near to slightly above normal through the period, with highs
mainly in the low/mid 90s and lows in the mid/upr 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...The bulk of the convection early this evening has
remained west of KFLO and KLBT thus far. The latest HRRR has
suggested that scattered convection could impact the inland
terminals for a few hours this evening which looks plausible
given current trends. As a result, included VCTS for KFLO and
KLBT and reintroduced VCSH/VCTS for coastal terminals during the
morning. Potential convection possible again Friday afternoon,
primarily for inland terminals. Otherwise, plenty of convective
debris tonight after diurnal cu dissipates with the loss of
heating. Gusty southerly winds possible, especially KCRE/KMYR
once the sea breeze pushes inland during the day Friday.
Extended Outlook...Some early morning fog and stratus possible
with scattered convection this weekend, possibly becoming more
isolated early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Front/trough approaching from the
northwest tonight will tighten gradient flow with SW winds
increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Conditions should
near advisory levels, but should remain just below, with wind
gusts to 25 kt and seas to around 5 ft. Expect seas in the 3 to
5 ft range through Fri into Fri night with winds veering
slightly from SW to W-SW, especially heading into Sat morning as
front drops down closer to the waters. Shorter period wind
waves will dominate through the period, mixed with minor longer
period SE swell around 9 seconds.
SW flow averaging around 10 kt from Sunday through Tuesday, up to 15
kt by the middle of next week as high pressure remains offshore and
a thermal trough persists inland. Seas mainly 1-2 early next week
increase to 2-3 ft Wednesday. This will be characterized by a 4-5
second SSWly wind wave and a weak 9-10 second SEly swell.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MAS/RGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
953 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
The forecast has been generally on track in the near term, but
there have been some localized enhancements in the convective
precipitation and have adjusted PoPs accordingly for the
remainder of the evening, particularly in the ArkLaMiss Delta
region. Otherwise, expect precip to continue to wind down overall
as we go through the overnight and have cut back PoPs for the late
night just a bit based on recent HRRR guidance. Per latest NHC
guidance, all is on track regarding Tropical Storm Barry and
expected impacts for the forecast area going through the weekend.
/EC/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow:
Surface convergent axis, associated with mid level weakness in
the ridge, draped northeast to southwest across the forecast area
will continue to serve as a focus for a good coverage of
convection considering PWs around 2 inches. While convection will
linger through the evening, this focus will mainly be manifest
during max heating again Friday afternoon. Denser coverage of
cloud cover and convection will limit overall heating compared to
earlier in the week as only lower 90s may be achievable Friday.
Even though heat indices may reach into the lower 100s, duration
looks short as convection gets an earlier start. Therefore, will
not outlook heat in the HWO. /GG/
Saturday through next Wednesday:
Barry will be the main focus for this forecast as it will likely be
making landfall Saturday morning as a low-end hurricane along the
central Louisiana coast. The official NHC track has the storm moving
slowly northward in the following days along and just west of the
Mississippi River. There is still some variations in the model
guidance concerning the exact track, though they are starting to
come into better alignment. At this point, the location of landfall
could occur between Lake Charles to somewhere near the mouth of the
MS River. Wherever Barry does make landfall, the models do agree on
a due northward track from there. With this system, as with most
tropical systems, the greatest impacts will be on the "right" side
of the storm and, in this instance, on the east side of Barry. With
the current forecast track just west of the MS River, this gives
western MS and eastern LA the potential for tropical storm-force
winds along with a lot of rainfall from this slow-moving system. As
Barry progress slowly inland of the coast into central Louisiana,
perhaps most prominently aided by steering on the western flank of
low-level ridging emanating from the subtropical Atlantic, it likely
will begin to slowly weaken.
Now to get into the nitty-gritty...In regards to the heavy rainfall,
the bulk of the rains from Barry will begin to move into our area
beginning Saturday morning just as it`s making landfall. The system
and rains will move northward through the day and continue into
Sunday. By Sunday at 7am, the center of the system is forecast to be
located in northeast Louisiana with the heavy rains falling just
east of the center (east LA and west MS). Storm total rainfall
amounts are forecast to reach between 4 to 8 inches in southern MS
and eastern LA (basically within our flash flood watch area) with
isolated amounts of 10 inches or higher. Flash flooding will be the
main threat within our warning area.
There will be a limited threat for tropical storm-force winds as
well in our far SW counties/parishes, including Concordia,
Catahoula, and Adams. This will consist of sustained winds near the
center of Barry of 35 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible.
This could result in downed trees and powerlines with blocked roads
in that area.
A tertiary threat will be tornadoes. As the rainbands begin to move
inland, the threat for spin-up tornadoes will increase to a marginal
risk on Saturday and likely on Sunday as well as low-level shear
increases greatly.
As the system moves northward on Tuesday and becomes integrated into
the upper ridge, the rains will be gradually tapering off from south
to north. As this happens, temperatures will begin to rebound back
to normal values (into the low 90s). The upper ridge will dominate
the weather again then and we will be back to our normal summer
pattern by the middle of next week. /10/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 75 89 74 84 / 14 57 27 67
Meridian 73 91 75 84 / 11 61 29 76
Vicksburg 76 90 75 86 / 54 51 25 64
Hattiesburg 74 87 75 82 / 12 71 54 82
Natchez 74 89 75 83 / 36 58 33 72
Greenville 75 91 75 87 / 41 38 35 58
Greenwood 74 92 75 87 / 45 43 28 61
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for MSZ047>050-053>056-059>066-072>074.
LA...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for LAZ015-016-023>026.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
602 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
With upper-level high pressure centered over southern Colorado
today, a mostly dry westerly flow is moving through the center of
Wyoming. Enough mid-level moisture and some instability is in the
westerly flow across the northern part of the state to start
moderate cumulus early in the afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected through 9pm across northern WY
today. With a marginal risk of severe storms along and just over
the MT border, some of the storms farther north could produce
strong wind gusts over 40 mph. The HRRR is showing storms
primarily between 4pm and 8pm, and also indicating a good chance
of a northerly wind shift/push early in the evening, which could
create more storms in the southern Bighorn Basin and from Buffalo
south to the north part of Casper. In addition, mid-level moisture
is making its way northward through eastern UT and should produce
isolated showers and thunderstorms in western Sweetwater County
and maybe northeast toward South Pass. With 700mb temps reaching
+18C this afternoon, temps have already climbed into the upper 80s
to low 90s with RH values dropping below 15 percent. Breezy
westerly flow will also bring wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph into the
early evening hours, with gusts higher around thunderstorms.
Temperatures and winds should be fairly mild overnight as the weak
shortwave in southern MT scoots eastward and flattens the ridge
over the state. Weak ridging remains in place for Friday with a
weak shortwave trough expected to move from NE Nevada northeast to
southwest MT. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are thus
expected across northwest and northern WY during the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds should be somewhat weaker Friday and
afternoon high temperatures could be a couple of degrees cooler.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Early Friday evening will continue to see showers and
thunderstorms across northern WY as mid-level energy moves
eastward through southern Montana. The 500mb high pressure center
looks to strengthen again over SE Colorado, and this pattern will
again help moisture and weak instability to move into western WY.
Saturday afternoon and evening will again see scattered showers
and thunderstorms over western WY with warm dry conditions in
central and southern WY. Sunday is forecast to have a shortwave
trough move from the PacNW into northern MT, and the southern
extension will kick off more showers and thunderstorms across the
area Sunday afternoon and evening. The overall ridge seems to
flatten slightly Monday onward with the northern energy, keeping
afternoon high temps down to the upper 80s to around 90. Monday
should only see some isolated convective activity across northern
WY. Tuesday through Thursday will continue to be warm with little
storminess across northern WY and perhaps far southern WY. Breezy
westerly flow will also keep conditions mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 601 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across southern
and far northern Wyoming over the next couple of hours. Though
these storms are not severe they are producing gusty winds which
have the best chance of impacting KRKS. After these storms move
out of the area and the anticipated gusty afternoon winds
decrease, winds overnight should be light and conditions dry.
Friday afternoon will see more widespread isolated showers and
thunderstorms, especially over the mountains and northern WY.
Winds are not expected to be as strong as Thursday, but could
again be gusty around any thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Upper-level high pressure over Colorado and breezy westerly flow
has brought in warmer and drier air to much of Wyoming today. With
the high temps, low humidities, and breezy conditions, elevated
fire weather conditions will continue through the early evening,
particularly across central and southern WY. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into the
evening over Sweetwater County. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected as well across the northern third of
the state. Some of the storms along the MT/WY border could produce
strong wind gusts over 40 mph. In addition, a northerly wind shift
is expected across north-central WY after 8pm, and this shift is
likely to move from Buffalo south to the Casper area. Mild
conditions are expected overnight. Friday should see more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, particularly from northwest
into northern WY and over the mountains. Temperatures should cool
slightly Friday with humdities increasing by about 5 percent, and
winds should not be as strong.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McDonald
LONG TERM...McDonald
AVIATION...McDonald/Bourque
FIRE WEATHER...McDonald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
840 PM PDT Thu Jul 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...The weather pattern will be more summerlike through the
weekend as high pressure builds over the Four Corners region. This
will result in hotter temperatures areawide and thunderstorm chances
mainly in northwest Arizona and potentially far eastern Clark
County.
&&
.UPDATE...Activity across Northern Mohave county has diminished this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Thunderstorms between 1pm
and 7 pm produced roughly 150 lightning strikes, so a little bit
more active than yesterday evening, and the strikes again were
accompanied by very little rainfall.
Attention tonight turns to the south as a weak vorticity maxima over
the lower Colorado River Valley will slowly drift northward. Most of
the day this feature has just produced an extensive cloud deck, with
the outer fringes of the cirrus shield reaching the Las Vegas area
around sunset. Late tonight, this moisture, concentrated mainly
above 500mb, may result in just enough elevated instability for a
stray lightning strike or two. Not expecting much out of it, but the
HRRR and some of our better CAMs have suggested some light, high
based shower activity developing with this feature towards daybreak.
As such, added some mainly silent PoPs to parts of Clark and Mohave
county to account for this. The bigger impact through will be the
influence the added cloud cover has on overnight temps. Boosted
temps upward tonight from Las Vegas southeast where cloud cover will
be greatest. The warmer morning temps may also help boost high
temperatures tomorrow as the cloud cover begins to thin out by mid
morning.
-Outler-
&&
.DISCUSSION...Active day across north-central Arizona this afternoon
with scattered mainly dry thunderstorms occurring along the Mogollon
Rim. So far, only isolated lightning strikes have occurred in Mohave
County near the Utah border, but the potential of seeing additional
dry thunderstorms exists into this evening mainly north of the
Colorado River. Will leave the current Red Flag Warning in place as
the threat of additional dry thunderstorms exists. Friday could be a
bit more active across northwest Arizona as the mid level moisture
spreads further west. The models are showing more unstable
conditions with LI`s around 0/-2 along with slightly higher CAPE
values. Another thing to watch for is a weak disturbance pushing
north along the Colorado River which could also enhance thunderstorm
development across Mohave County. The lower levels look to remain
rather dry so majority of the thunderstorms will remain dry. Have
elected to issue a Red Flag Warning once again for Mohave County due
to the expected increase in mainly dry thunderstorms. We should also
see a bit more cumulus further west into Clark and eastern San
Bernardino Counties, but at this time thunderstorms are not
expected.
Saturday looks fairly similar to Friday with thunderstorm chances
remaining in mainly northwest Arizona. Although thunderstorm chances
remain rather slim in southern Nevada, it`s possible we could see a
brief thunderstorm over the Spring Mountain and Sheep range.
Confidence remains fairly low in anything developing west of the
Colorado River.
Drier air will being to push in from the west Sunday and next week
as a Pacific trough moves into the west coast. This will push any
thunderstorm chances east of the area. Temperatures are still
expected to remain a few degrees above normal into early next week.
The hottest period looks to be Friday through Sunday with Las Vegas
potentially reaching 110 degrees.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms expected to remain over
northern Mohave County this afternoon with conditions gradually
improving after sunset. Additional mid level moisture combined with
a weak disturbance moving up the Colorado River could help enhance
mainly dry thunderstorm development across mainly the higher terrain
of Mohave County. This potential combined with very dry conditions
has lead to a Red Flag Warning for Arizona Fire Weather Zone 102
from late morning until late evening Friday. Elsewhere, dry
conditions with normal afternoon winds expected.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south-southwesterly winds with
gusts between 20 and 25 kts expected to continue through the
remainder of the afternoon before dying down around sunset. Diurnal
southwesterly winds around 8 kts will take hold through the
overnight hours before becoming light and variable during the early
morning hours and tend toward an easterly component for the
afternoon. Increasing mid-to-high level clouds expected through the
day, though will remain above 12 kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwesterly gusty winds expected to continue
through the remainder of the afternoon until sunset when gusts die
off. The exception is KDAG who will gust from the west into the
early evening. Diurnal winds around 8 kts expected otherwise.
Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds expected throughout Mohave
County tomorrow afternoon. Increasing mid-to-high level cloud cover
through the day above 12 kft for the southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona TAF sites expected through the forecast period
while the southeastern California TAF sites remain mostly sunny.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Gorelow
AVIATION...Varian
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