Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/08/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Quick update to increase precipitation and thunderstorms chances across much of the far west to account for the observed cells and lightning slowly making their way towards the MT/ND border. UPDATE Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Only minor tweaks to the forecast were made for this update as it continues to be a wait and see game with the convection slowly heading our way from Montana. A couple of near stationary thunderstorms have stalled out just on the Canadian side of the international border, but thus far these storms have not been able to back build further south. Should storms continue to hold their strength across eastern Montana, they may eventually enter into an environment characterized by 2000 to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE and 25 to 35 knots of effective shear per 02z RAP mesoanalysis. This would suggest the potential for some organized severe thunderstorms should they be able to access these parameters, but many of the CAMs continue to weaken storms as they nudge into the state. UPDATE Issued at 532 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 No major changes were needed for this early evening update. Decided to cut precipitation chances out across the entire forecast area until 03z except for the one small area along the Canadian border in the northwest where a few storms have tried to get going late this afternoon. Kept the mention of isolated thunderstorms for the next couple of hours in that area but at the moment it looks like most of the precipitation will stay north of the border. Otherwise, just blended in the latest observations to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A chance for strong to severe storms tonight and again on Monday highlights the short term forecast. A shallow trough aloft in the northwestern United States is slowly propagating east with a surface low and associated frontal boundaries currently centered in north central Montana. There is still a small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon over central North Dakota, but with no real forcing mechanism it is unlikely at this point. Convection has already begun in Montana and is expected to increase in severity this evening before reaching the western North Dakota border. Low-level moisture advection is boosting dew points into the mid to upper 60s across the forecast area, with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Overall set-up is marginal, however, with deep layer shear not overly strong and sounding analysis hinting at a cap developing late tonight. High-res models are also inconsistent with timing and severity, so a bit shaky in terms of confidence for level of severity tonight. Storms are expected to progress east overnight, slowly dissipating in central North Dakota through the morning, with an isolated severe storm or two still possible. Tomorrow, the upper-level trough continues to move east with the surface low in Montana today sliding over into North Dakota. Continued southeasterly surface flow will lead to a hot and humid day across the forecast area ahead of a cold front expected to slowly move southeast across the Northern Plains. Widespread severe weather threat for North Dakota, although timing of the cold front passage will be key for threat levels and storm mode. Generally 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE available along with steep low level lapse rates and an upper level vorticity max. Main problem for organized convection right now is the wind shear...low level wind shear is strongest in central and eastern North Dakota, while deep layer shear is best in western North Dakota. Thinking that the area in central ND where better low and deep layer shear overlap could be the best area for severe storms. Might be able to get a discrete cell or two in the afternoon before the cap erodes further and convection really starts to pop, with anvil-level storm motion hinting at upscale growth and an overall cluster storm mode expected by the evening. Also can`t rule out convection building in western ND in the evening after the front passes. Expecting hail and wind to be the main threat, along with heavy rain as PWAT values range from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A few rain shower and thunderstorm chances along with an overall warming trend highlights the extended forecast. The severe threat is expected to slowly lessen on Monday night as cooler and drier air moves in behind the cold front. However, still a good chance for precipitation through the night and Tuesday with a stacked low forecast to deepen over western North Dakota. Some thunderstorms are certainly possible along with the rain showers on the east side of the low with instability and steep lapse rates still present, but not expecting any of them to be severe. PWAT values are still around the 1.5 inch area, so heavy rain in these showers and thunderstorms is still a possibility. As the upper-level trough moves out of the region, a low-amplitude ridge begins to build over high pressure in the southwestern US. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be mostly dry before various chances of showers and thunderstorms returns for the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise, with highs in the widespread mid 80s expected by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 532 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Thunderstorms currently located over Montana may push into parts of western North Dakota late tonight. However confidence is low regarding the eventual coverage and intensity of these storms once they do arrive sometime after 03z tonight. A strong to severe storm is possible with thunderstorms potentially reaching as far south as KDIK. More severe thunderstorms are in the forecast for most of western and central North Dakota Monday afternoon and evening, with the best chances from the KMOT/KBIS corridor and east. VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any isolated heavy thunderstorm development. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
813 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Appears the stronger storms from early this evening that produced heavy rain and small hail are on the decrease as the airmass slowly stabilizes. There is still another wave of mid level moisture moving across the mountains, so we`ll still have a few showers and storms around for the rest of the evening. Storms on the northeast corner may linger past midnight, otherwise look for partial clearing and a mild night for the forecast area. Main updates surrounded evening shower and storm chances to reflect their evolution. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Most of the activity has been confined to the mountains and foothills this afternoon. Temperatures over the plains still running at or just below the convective temperature along the urban corridor, but warmer east of a Sterling to Akron line. HRRR spread the showers and thunderstorms northeast across the plains after 23z. Best potential for severe storms will be northeast where 100 mb ML CAPEs near 1800 j/kg, 400-700 j/kg urban corridor and Palmer Divide. Thunderstorms may linger until 09z over the northeast corner of the state tonight, but diminish in most areas elsewhere by 06z. Plenty of low level moisture for a mixture of stratus/fog mainly north and northeast of Denver late tonight so added patchy fog in those areas around 12z Monday. On Monday, overall scenario similar to this afternoon, but with slightly higher CAPES overall in the afternoon. Flow aloft southwesterly with storms developing over the higher terrain by early afternoon, spreading across the urban corridor and northeast plains after 21z. Directional shear weaker vs today, but if convective temperatures can be reached then a decent chance of thunderstorms across the plains by late afternoon. Marginal risk for one or two severe thunderstorms north and east of Denver in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A short wave aloft is expected to be moving out over the northeast plains Monday evening which will be pushing a round of thunderstorms ahead of it. Most thunderstorms should be over by mid-evening with improving conditions after that. The upper air pattern will be shifting to more westerly after this short wave, which will bring a drying and warming trend to the state. Temperatures should warm back into the 90s across the plains through the end of the week, and overnight lows by next weekend may be staying in the lower 60s. All the models show that Tuesday will be nearly convection-free, due to the moderate westerly flow aloft that flushes most moisture out of the state for about a 24 hour period. However, the medium range models are quick to bring mid-level moisture back into the state, which will bring isolated thunderstorm coverage back to the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The remainder of the week will then be a struggle between moisture at mid-levels and warming temperatures at low and mid levels which may warm enough to cap any convective development. The mountains and foothills will see showers develop each afternoon, but confidence in showers spreading onto the plains will be lower. As the pattern evolves through the week, the presence of the upper ridge will lead to weak winds at mid levels and slow storm motions when they do develop. All in all, typical July weather for Colorado will be the result. Those who like warm temperatures will be pleased, while those who like to see showers will also have something to track. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 813 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Disrupted wind field left behind by the evening convection will transition to normal south/southwest winds 03Z-06Z. Appears main storm threat is over for the Denver area TAF sites this evening, but can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm til 06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will persist. Look for high based showers and storms after 21Z Monday, with gusty and variable outflow winds to 35 knots the main threat. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Inflow to Dillon Reservoir should be peaking this week, and releases down the Blue River below the dam are expected to remain just below flood stage. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Dankers AVIATION...Barjenbruch HYDROLOGY...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1004 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Still some isolated sub-severe storms in east, but main threat is over. Thus, we allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 to expire at 10 pm. BT && .SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue... Severe thunderstorms possible today and Monday. Be prepared! Convection developing over the Beartooth/Absarokas is beginning to spread off the foothills, as shortwave to our west lifts from ID into western MT. Areas east of Billings are clear and quiet as warming mid level temps form a cap, but instability is increasing and latest mesoanalysis shows MLCapes to 1500 j/kg. There is a chance that the early onset of convection in our west will somewhat muddle up the air mass, but latest HRRR does show additional development in our NW a bit later in region of height falls, and as convection develops a cold pool and spreads east there will be plenty of instability to work with by this evening. Much of our cwa is at risk of seeing severe weather (hail/wind) over the next several hours, but the potential is lowest from Sheridan to Broadus where 700mb temps will be warming to near +14C. A cold front will slide through the region tonight. Despite the cooler air mass, the risk of severe storms will continue tomorrow as upper trof remains to our west supplying synoptic ascent. Low level winds will turn to the N-NE and this will keep moisture pooled on our side of the mountains. Today`s HREF shows sufficient shear and instability, with updraft helicity tracks favored over much of our cwa. High pwats support potential for flash flooding especially in our east. Monday will be a very active weather day. Upper trof will move to our east and Tuesday will be cooler w/ breezy NW winds. Freezing levels will be much lower and this suggests small hail with any thunderstorm that develops, otherwise instability will be quite a bit lower than what we are seeing today and no severe weather is anticipated. Look for temps in the 70s to mid 80s on Monday (warmest east), then mainly 70s on Tuesday. JKL .LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun... Active weather pattern looks to continue for the most part through this week. Upper level ridging builds across the forecast area Wednesday and will bring dry weather. However, the ridge gets flattened slightly Thursday into Friday as disturbances off the Pacific move across the northern Rockies. These disturbances will bring a returning chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. Precipitable water values look to be above 1 inch for much of the central and eastern portions of our forecast area Thursday through next weekend resulting in the potential for heavy rainfall. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s Wednesday through Saturday and lower 90s on Sunday. Far eastern MT will have highs in the 70s on Wednesday. Hooley/RMS && .AVIATION... Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm will roam the CWA through the night. Brief MVFR is possible, though not likely. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms (and sub-VFR conditions) will be more widespread on Monday. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 059/077 056/076 055/086 062/088 062/085 061/087 062/091 28/T 84/T 00/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 2//U LVM 053/074 049/074 049/084 056/087 055/085 055/085 056/088 29/T 83/T 00/B 13/T 33/T 33/T 2//U HDN 057/079 054/075 052/086 060/088 061/085 060/086 061/090 27/T 85/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 2//U MLS 060/082 057/073 052/082 060/088 062/086 061/086 062/089 44/T 86/T 20/U 00/U 22/T 32/T 2//U 4BQ 060/081 056/073 051/082 061/089 061/086 060/085 062/089 24/T 86/T 20/U 01/U 22/T 32/T 2//U BHK 059/082 056/071 050/078 057/088 060/084 059/084 061/087 44/T 87/T 40/U 01/U 22/T 32/T 3//U SHR 057/079 052/073 049/086 058/091 058/086 058/086 058/091 06/T 85/T 10/U 01/U 23/T 33/T 2//U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect southern Pennsylvania overnight. Some of the storms will bring heavy downpours. Drier air will begin to move south across the area on Monday, bringing more comfortable conditions into the middle of the week. The humidity rises for Thursday, then a cold front will push through by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have caused some flash flooding issues this evening across portions of the Laurel Highlands and the southern Alleghenies. The activity in these areas seems to be diminishing, but heavy showers are now developing farther to the east towards Franklin and Adams counties. The HRRR indicates that the shower activity could linger into the overnight, so the Flash Flood Watch will continue to 06z Monday and may be extended further if nocturnal convection develops. Farther to the north, some drier air should finally drop southward into northern PA overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Some showers are likely across the south Monday morning, but as the day goes on drier air will begin to mix down from some drier air filtering in aloft. This is the beginning of a couple days of much-needed drier weather for the area. Maxes on Monday will be in the u70s and l80s for most, just a deg or two cooler than today as the cold advection knocks the top of mixed layer temps down a bit. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging at the surface and aloft drifts east from the Ohio Valley and helps to gradually dry/clear things out Monday night through Wednesday, bringing us more comfortable nights with min temps in the lower 60s across the Susquehanna Valley. Accompanying daytime temperatures that will be a few degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday will be light wind near and under the surface high pressure area. The moderate dewpoints and mainly clear skies at night will lead to patchy fog for several hours around daybreak both Tuesday and Wed mornings. Moisture will increase in advance of a cold front which will push through the Commonwealth Thursday or Thursday night. Preceding this front, moderate PWAT anomalies of plus 1-2 sigma and a decent south-southwesterly LLJ will lead to a high probability for afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA - some of which could contain brief strong wind gusts. Afterward, the weather through the rest of the extended (Friday through Sunday period) will afford us with mainly dry weather, near to slightly below normal temps, and moderate humidity with sfc dewpoints initially in the 50s and 60s Friday and early Saturday as an area of PWATs around 20MM drifts overhead. For the bulk of next weekend, temps and dewpoints should slowly rise back to slightly above normal for Sunday afternoon with the chance of a stray shower or TSRA, primarily across northern PA and within the 18-23Z period. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rains showers continue to move northward across eastern central Pennsylvania. This will impact MDT and LNS over the next few hours. Expect MVFR cigs and vsbys. The calming winds have allowed for periods of IFR cigs at JST and AOO. AOO has improved to MVFR but considering the low level moisture it should see IFR cigs and vsbys late tonight, early tomorrow morning. IFR cigs and vsbys should begin around 06Z at JST and BFD as the inversion takes effect. These mainly IFR cigs will linger until mid Monday morning before lifting around 15Z. .Outlook... Mon...Isolated PM showers t-storms possible mainly srn 3/4. Tue...No sig wx. Wed...Isolated PM t-storms possible NW 1/3. Thu...Showers/t-storms likely with next frontal system. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for PAZ026>028-034>036- 056-063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/Evanego NEAR TERM...Evanego SHORT TERM...Ross/Evanego LONG TERM...Dangelo/Lambert AVIATION...Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 High pressure was sprawled across Lake Michigan early this afternoon. Afternoon cumulus developed today with gusty northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH. At 2 PM temperatues, ranged from 77 degrees at Freeport to 85 at Burlington. Dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s. An MCV was noted on satellite and radar moving into northwest Iowa this afternoon This feature will be moving into drier air across central Iowa later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Models are in good overall agreement during the short term period. Main forecast concerns are temperatures and the effects of that MCV on cloud cover moving across the area this evening. In the near term, initial thought was that the MCV moving across northwest Iowa would move into the western part of the area by 00 UTC Monday with increasing cloud cover. RAP13 700 to 300 MB vorticity washes out late this afternoon into this evening as the MCV approaches eastern Iowa with the remnants moving into western parts of far eastern iowa early this evening. Even though it is dissipating and limited moisture still expect some clouds to make it into western portions of eastern Iowa this evening. High pressure will slowly move into Lake Huron over the next 24 hours with the 500 HPA ridge moving into eastern Iowa by 00 UTC Tuesday. Expect clearing skies tonight with sunny skies through the day on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be a couple of degrees warmer than todays high temperatures with dew points slightly lower than today with easterly to southeasterly flow across the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through next Sunday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Monday night...Both sfc and upper ridging hang on long enough acrs the western GRT LKS for a dry Monday night, with maybe just some debris clouds spilling in from the west from upstream convection over the east central plains. With lingering dry sfc DPTS and a period of mainly clear skies,it should be another cooler night for this time of year with widespread low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible acrs northwest IL. Tuesday...This the period when a seasonably strong shortwave(now located acrs the Pacific NW) will propagate inland in the northern stream and make it acrs MN by Wed morning. Stronger forcing and lee- side diffluent cyclonic flow for more robust convection seems to lay out acrs the northeast plains, northwest IA into MN later Tue and Tue night. But if the local area can heat up into the at least the mid 80s with mid 60 DPTs, there may be enough instability to fuel locally strong sctrd storms by Tue afternoon especially west of the MS RVR. But fcst soundings show a building elevated mixed layer/cap aloft as the day progresses that may limit development. Also some potential for convective debris or even lingering showers/storms moving into the western CWA Tue from an Monday night MCS to the west. Thu some sfc temp warm-up potential uncertainty as well. There may be better forcing locally and low to mid layer warm air advection for more activity Tue night as the upper low moves east acrs the Dakotas and into western MN. This is when somewhat better shear and lingering instability may fuel some strong to possibly severe storms. Fcst soundings and moisture feed profiles also show precipital water increasing to 1.8 to near 2 inches overnight which would fuel locally heavy rainfall from any passing storm clusters. Still some uncertainty in timing and forcing for strong storm potential between the models this period, especially late night into Wed morning frontal passage and storms along that feature with enhanced shear profiles. This is when the stronger storms may occur at an unusual time around dawn Wed morning. But again, low confidence in any scenario at this time. Wednesday...The latest medium range models suggest that the upper level wave will dig southeast acrs the GRT LKS this period, with the best interaction of frontal forcing and instability for strong storms occurring south and east of the CWA later in the day after what even morning showers or storms clear out from the area. With currently accepted frontal feature timing, Wed afternoon could then be a breezy post-frontal period with the watch on for wrap-around clouds and even some sctrd instability showers into the north under lingering cyclonic flow in the vicinity of the passing upper trof. Thursday through next Sunday...Thursday into Friday still look to be post-frontal cooler/less humid days as upper MS RVR Valley-western GRT LKS ridging occupy the region. Then longer ranges still show broad building subtropical upper ridging taking hold of much of the central and western CONUS into the weekend. Besides warming temps to or above normal again into the weekend, the main northern periphery storm track would look to lay out from the northwest high plains, over to the northern GRT LKS. But in this pattern transition, there may be a chance for some of this northern activity to bleed down into portions of the CWA Friday night and into Saturday as lee-side of ridge northwesterlies angle down toward the southwestern GRT LKS. Will also be interesting to see if a tropical system in the Gulf develops and how far west/north inland this system makes it. It`s subsidence fields to the west and north of it may also help enhance the upper ridging locally keeping the area mainly rain free if the system pulls up far enough to the northwest. But of course the rains from the system itself may have to be eventually dealt with if it come too far north and west. ..12.. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Very quiet and VFR weather conditions will last the next 24+ hours. Northeast to east flow will quickly drop to around 5 kts by 00z, and should remain light through the period. Visibility will remain good, with somewhat low humidity levels for summer expected. The forest fire smoke is expected to remain northeast of Iowa and Illinois this next 24 hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 On the Mississippi River, river level trends continue with in-bank rises continuing from Dubuque on down to Muscatine from routed flow from upstream due to heavy rainfall to the north over the past week. A few sites such as Dubuque RR Bridge, Camanche, Rock Island LD15, and Muscatine will rise above or continue above the action stage for much of the upcoming week. The routed flow from upstream is also combining with already well above normal levels to continue to produce Minor flooding generally from New Boston on down to Gregory Landing in Missouri. The exception remains at Keokuk LD19 which will continue to hover just below the action stage this week. A few sites such as Gladstone LD18 and Burlington will experience a broad crest around a foot under the Moderate flood stage next week. As long as the area does not get impacted by widespread heavy rain events over the next 5-7 days, some of the sites that are in the minor flooding category should fall back below minor flood stage sometime during the next weekend. On the Wapsipinicon near DeWitt the river is expected to make it`s secondary crest at 11.2 feet by this evening, then start to fall again tonight, eventually dropping back below it`s flood stage Monday morning. The next chance for organized rains in or near the area will come Tuesday and Tuesday night. It is still uncertain how much rain and where it falls to assess the potential impact on local river basins. Then there are signs the main storm track may shift north again across the northern plains and into the northwestern GRT LKS by next weekend. This may have some impact eventually on the local Mississippi if more heavy rain and run-off can make it into the upper Mississippi River basin and get routed down southward. The impacts may be slowed falls, stalls in river levels or minor rises similar to what is currently taking place on the local stretch of the Mississippi. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cousins SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Removed some pops for later tonight. Satellite indicated some clouds trying to develop over SD and the southern valley with warm advection. Will keep low pops in the south late. No other changes at this update. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Little change at this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 The forecast in the near term focuses on lingering smoke and severe weather potential for Monday. As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds have been slowly increasing. These winds will help push smoke northward, but it`s been at a rather slow rate today. The southerly winds continue tonight and the thinking is that by tomorrow most of the area will be free from the smoke. The HRRR is more optimistic thinking that surface smoke will be nearly gone by midnight tonight. Tomorrow, a frontal boundary/inverted trough will exist across eastern ND, running from SW to NE. This boundary, along with an approaching upper wave, will create favorable thunderstorm conditions. With deep shear around 30kts and CAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg, some severe storms will be possible. Also, an elevated risk of flash flooding will exist as well from storms tomorrow. There is a chance of storms in the morning, but it looks like the best chance will be late in the afternoon and during the evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An active pattern is expected through the week as an upper level low will slowly move through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday and another upper level wave affects the area on Thursday night. There could be a few severe storms on Tuesday ahead of the upper low. Otherwise, expect a cooler Wednesday,but generally near average highs for this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Satellite indicated smoke generally along the Red River and over far northern MN and was moving to the north. The smoke area had 3 to 4 miles visibility. Scattered cumulus field was over southeast ND and over north central MN with cigs 45-55 hundred ft. Cumulus field will dissipate with sunset. Expect VFR conditions overnight however some MVFR cigs possible in Mon morning with precip moving into eastern ND. Also MVFR conditions can be expected in smoke areas tonight and north Mon morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Persistent convection over West-Central Texas earlier this evening has finally begun to dissipate and should be finished by midnight. The resulting cold pool has left an outflow boundary along a line from Gainesville to just south of Eastland. Temperatures to the west of the boundary have fallen into the middle 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Low temperatures have been knocked down a couple of degrees in these areas based on the mesoscale environment. The rest of the region should experience warm and muggy conditions with lows between 75 and 80. Will keep an eye on an apparent MCV near the San Angelo area as it moves east, but any additional thunderstorm activity associated with this feature will likely wait until things destabilize Monday afternoon. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ /00Z TAFs/ A ridge aloft has suppressed convection across the area thus far today. However, outflow from storms immediately west of the area is pushing east at 25 kt and may kick of a few showers as it approaches the western portion of the DFW TRACON 8-10 PM. A second boundary currently just to the west of a line from Bonham to Sulphur Springs is moving slowly southwest. Will therefore keep VCSH in the Metroplex airports through 03Z, with activity likely waning thereafter with the loss of surface heating. The main impact in the near-term will likely be near the Bowie arrival gate as a thunderstorm cluster approaches from the southwest. If storms get closer to the Metroplex that currently anticipated, will amend to include a VCTS for an hour or two, which would be around 02-03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at all locations. The disturbance responsible for the convection to the west will move east overnight, shifting the threat for storms eastward and including the Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco areas by Monday afternoon. VCTS has hence been included for Monday afternoon at all airports. 30 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ /Through Monday Morning/ Visible imagery shows a couple of areas of vertically developed cumulus this afternoon. The first is east of the US HWY 75 corridor/north of I-20. LAPS/RAP analysis indicate that instability in excess of 3000 J/kg with decreasing convective inhibition is in place. Convergence along outflow generated from a compact cluster of thunderstorms across the Ark-La-Tex may aid in continued upshear development deeper into North Texas. With instability being the greatest across Northeast TX...the potential for more widespread convection exists here and I`ve increased PoPs to near 50% for the rest of the afternoon. The greater instability also supports more vigorous updrafts and despite weak wind shear...20 to 25 degree dewpoint depressions will support a strong to marginally severe downburst risk. The other area that will have a risk for afternoon showers and storms will be across the Big Country (mainly areas near and west of the US HWY 281 corridor). While instability isn`t quite as large still remains near 2000 J/kg. In addition, modest convergence along remnant outflow boundaries may serve as focusing mechanisms for convective initiation. I`ll maintain a 20-30 PoP to address this potential. A gusty downburst risk will also exist here thanks to the hot and well mixed PBL. Along the immediate I-35`s possible that low PoPs at this time are overdone as RAP analysis suggests that the spine of a mid-level ridge (albeit it is struggling to build) will be in place. This could stunt updraft development as the airmass aloft remains warm and dry. I`ll still maintain some low PoPs along the I-35 corridor, generally north of I-20 this afternoon and into the early evening hours given that we will approach and possibly exceed convective temperatures. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the primary weather concerns. The remainder of the area (Central Texas) is expected to remain rain/storm-free. Overnight...shower and storm coverage will decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will be around seasonal normals with most locales falling into the 70s. A few of the urbanized regions may remain near 80 degrees for overnight low temperatures. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ /Tomorrow through Next Weekend/ The main story in the extended period is building heat through at least mid-week, with temperatures approaching 100 and heat indices around 105-110 in many locations Tuesday into Wednesday. Other than that, a few showers and storms will try to hang tough tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially towards the Big Country. Despite mid-level ridging attempting to build across the region early this week, convection generated over the southern High Plains through tonight will likely eject one or more MCVs/impulses towards western North Texas tomorrow. Diurnal heating, an uncapped environment, and the aforementioned mid-level feature will likely yield isolated to scattered convection by afternoon. Similar to prior days, weak 500mb flow will ensure that individual cells remain unorganized. However, tall buoyancy profiles (with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates could encourage a strong downburst or two in the most robust cores, most likely west of US-281. As for the heat, tomorrow should see heat indices solidly in the 100-105 range, especially near the I-35 corridor, where mid 90s highs and lower 70s dew points will intersect. While heat advisory criteria could be achieved in a few spots, it appears too localized for issuance at this time, especially considering a potential convective influence (e.g., clouds, outflow) from the west. The heat builds in earnest Tuesday into Wednesday as a mid/upper anticyclone builds to our west/northwest and 925-850mb temps rise further. Highs will climb into the upper 90s to near 100, combining with stubbornly high boundary-layer moisture to produce heat indices around 105-110. The one possible source of relief late Wednesday into Thursday may be related to a distant savior (in the form of a sharp shortwave impulse) over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. While this system`s attendant cold front will remain well north of North Texas, guidance suggests that it could kick off one or more convective clusters that sink south into a reservoir of surface-based buoyancy over the Ozarks. The GFS solution seems too aggressive with its convective "chain of events" into North Texas late Wednesday into Thursday, but a weaker form of this evolution seems plausible, given northerly flow aloft on the east side of the amplifying ridge. Therefore, the forecast now advertises slight-chance PoPs across parts of the region through Thursday. Although this evolution could stunt our warming trend some, the more likely scenario is that we maintain the heat through the end of the week, with temperatures remaining in the mid/upper 90s through Friday. At the least, surface dew points should fall some in response to weak dry-air advection from the northeast. Picca && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 95 78 98 79 / 20 20 20 5 5 Waco 76 95 77 98 77 / 5 10 10 5 5 Paris 75 92 75 93 76 / 30 20 10 5 5 Denton 77 94 78 99 78 / 20 30 20 5 10 McKinney 76 95 77 97 78 / 20 20 10 5 5 Dallas 80 96 78 99 79 / 20 20 10 5 5 Terrell 76 94 77 98 77 / 10 20 10 5 5 Corsicana 76 93 75 94 76 / 5 10 10 5 5 Temple 75 95 75 98 76 / 5 10 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 74 93 75 99 76 / 20 30 20 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/22
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1039 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019 We continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms fire up along and near what is left of a cold front. The SPC mesoanalysis shows much of the Cumberland Valley has been tapped out instability wise from earlier convection, and therefore this convection is expected to be on the decline as it moves south. However, the area the convection is progressing across right now has around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE to work with, and this will mainly lead to frequent lightning and heavy rainfall given the still elevated PWATs. The HRRR time lag seemed to have the better trend with this convection and leaned that direction for the grids. Updated PoPs to better reflect the latest trends and thinking. Also blended in the latest obs and trends for other elements as well. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019 A weak cold front continues to push across eastern Kentucky this evening, with northerly flow toward the Bath and Rowan county Kentucky Mesonet sites. Given the nearby boundary have kept at least isolated PoPs through the evening, but can adjust further once we see if additional convection does actually develop. Otherwise more minor adjustments were made to add in the latest obs and trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019 With a slow moving cold front draped across eastern Kentucky, convection has been ongoing through much of the early afternoon. With PWAT values around 2 inches, and very slow storm motions, storms have been putting down very heavy rainfall, with high rainfall rates. Lightning has also been prominent as a result. Several statements and warnings for flash flooding have been issued throughout the early afternoon. This front is nearing the VA/TN line, and should continue to shift away from the CWA throughout the late afternoon/evening. Best convection is drifting south of the border with it. However, lingering instability and moisture will keep some isolated convection ongoing across eastern Kentucky through the late afternoon. Once we lose afternoon heating, and the frontal boundary shifts farther away from the CWA, this precip will also dissipate. Northerly winds in the low and mid levels will introduce cooler and drier air into the CWA through the overnight. In response, a llvl inversion will form, and remaining moisture will be trapped near the surface. Fog will likely develop, especially in the river valleys, and in locations that received heavy rains during the day. It is likely that some of this could be locally dense as well. Heading into the day Monday, high pressure will take a stronger hold of the state. Fog will quickly lift into a low stratus layer and then dissipate throughout the morning. Despite northerly flow, strong radiational heating will help boost temps back into the mid 80s. In good news, humidity will be lower in comparison to this last week. CAMs do depict some isolated to scattered convection to our east and south during peak heating, and there is a very slight chance that a storm could move into the far eastern portion of the state...but confidence in this is very low. Otherwise, just some diurnally driven CU are expected. These will diminish Monday night once again with loss of mixing, and another llvl inversion develops. With good radiational cooling, valleys will likely drop off in temperature compared to the valleys, so a bit of a ridge/valley split is expected. Any lingering llvl moisture, or near water bodies, may lead to some patchy fog in the valleys as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019 The models are in fair agreement through the first part of the long term. An upper level ridge will remain in place over the southeastern CONUS through midweek. However, a shortwave trough will progress over the Ohio Valley late Wednesday through early Friday. By the weekend, zonal flow will begin to take hold, with a large ridge building over the western portion of the CONUS. The models also show a tropical system forming in the Gulf to the west of Florida later in the week. However, there is much model spread in regards to the development and track of this system through the weekend. The ECMWF has the system moving up through Louisiana and Arkansas on Sunday, whereas the GFS has the system tracking up the east coast over the Carolinas during this time. Will continue to monitor for any potential impacts to eastern Kentucky, but not expecting eastern Kentucky to be affected at this point. Closer to the surface, high pressure will build over the northeastern CONUS Tuesday as a cold front continues southward over the southern Georgia and Alabama. By Wednesday, a cold front will make its way across the central Plains towards the Ohio Valley. This front will progress over the Commonwealth Thursday, quickly exiting overnight into early Friday. High pressure is then expected to build over the region Friday afternoon and persist through the weekend. This will lead to chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along the Virginia and Tennessee borders Tuesday afternoon. With the loss of daytime heating, expecting showers and storms to dwindle overnight Tuesday. This brief period of dry weather will be followed by scattered showers for most of eastern Kentucky as well as the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wednesday. Expecting showers and storms to increase from west to east overnight Wednesday as the cold front begins to move over the area. Showers and storms will then decrease overnight Thursday as the front exits to the south. Mainly dry weather is then on tap for Friday afternoon through the weekend. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s through the extended; however, FROPA will bring a slight cool down for Friday, with highs in the middle 80s. By Sunday, very warm temperatures in the lower 90s are expected. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern, with lows in the upper 60s for most of the extended. But, lows will decrease to be in the mid 60s Friday and Saturday mornings due to FROPA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019 Most sites are beginning the TAF period in the VFR range, but some stratus has pushed into SME from near by showers leading to MVFR CIGs. There is some uncertainty through the evening on if and when we will see any additional convection, but for now will only go with VCSH at best through the the evening. After this fog and/or stratus will become the concern, as models are in good agreement and early precipitation will play a role. Overall stuck with some IFR or lower CIGs and VIS through the late night and into the early morning hours Monday. A better feel for trends will be seen in the 06Z TAF issuance. After this fog/stratus mixes out and we will see a return to VFR conditions through the afternoon. The winds will remain light and variable through the period, but the front may allow for weak northerly flow at some sites later in the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1044 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .DISCUSSION... Weather conditions are rather tranquil across the forecast area this evening, with light and variable winds allowing some inland locations to drop into the upper 70s before midnight. Big Pine is the cool spot at 78 degrees, with the office in Key West close behind at 80 degrees. Elsewhere most other land observing sites are still in the low 80s. Just about every wind direction can be found across the region, but all marine observations are coming in below 5 knots. Truly light and variable, with even a few spots reporting dead calm. Not many echoes to be found on radar at the time of writing, with a relatively thin sheet of mid- to upper- level stratus still blanketing the region from earlier storms. It is interesting to note a distinct inversion present around 500mb on the evening RAOB from KEY, with a clockwise spinning mesoscale feature evident on GOES infrared imagery. This subsidence is likely contributing to the convective suppression this evening, but it will probably be short-lived as the feature drifts south. Concerning the forecast, only minor adjustments to winds were required for the update. Although only isolated convection is currently present across the region, we are expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as lingering boundaries persist across the waters. In particular the western extent of the ridge axis is manifesting in south to southwest winds across the eastern Straits and in the vicinity of the Middle Keys, with HRRR guidance suggesting increased convergence along this zone overnight as it gradually overtakes the Middle and Upper Keys. There are less thermodynamic limiting factors compared to last night, as low-level moisture remains plentiful with modest ML CAPE (~1200 J/kg) and a lack of substantial ML CIN. This combined with typical mainland and Cuban exhalation should lead to just enough convergence for scattered convection to develop, particularly along lingering boundaries. The rest of the forecast is on track with overnight lows near 80 degrees. && .MARINE... Light to gentle breezes are expected tonight, with surface flow gradually becoming south to southwest dominate. From the synopsis: A western Atlantic ridge axis will settle south into the Straits of Florida and the north coast of Cuba tonight. A broad low pressure area will likely form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast around the middle of the week ahead, where it will meander through Friday. && .AVIATION... A broad cyclonic low level envelope is in place across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This evening`s KKEY 00Z RAOB sampled ample moisture and very few inhibiting convective factors. Light northwest to north surface breezes will turn to the south by 12Z, initiating weak BL convergence across an area populated by relic boundaries. Therefore, showers are included in the vicinity of both terminals after 09Z, followed by good chances for VCTS at both terminals after 16Z due to the strengthening cyclonic low level WSW flow. Statistical guidance agrees with our assessment of thunder chances Monday afternoon. Prepare for MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS spells. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...WLC Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Collection......DR Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
810 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... 810 PM CDT Quiet weather tonight with the only item of interest and potential impact to air quality for Monday being smoke from Canadian wildfires. Various GOES-16 ABIs and RGBs indicate concentrated smoke originating from eastern Manitoba and western Ontario fires, and drifting slowly southward over the Great Lakes region. Using this imagery, ceiling observations, and webcam photos indicate the leading edge of a finger of thicker smoke is to east central Wisconsin. A handful of ceiling observations show overcast 4500-6000 ft in this area, with it being rare to see smoke only (no true clouds) down to that height that far from fires. However, looking at the satellite data and observed and humidity fields, it does look to be just smoke. Also seeing a few sites reporting haze with visibility of 3-5 miles, with a few reports of people smelling it too in northern Wisconsin. The Alpena/Gaylord and Green Bay 00Z soundings show the northeast flow to be basically below 850 mb, and so given the drift direction of the smoke, this further verifies it is in the low-levels. With the low-level ridge moving slowly over Wisconsin overnight into Monday morning, the clockwise flow around this should turn winds more east-northeast over the CWA by daybreak. The result of this should be a cutoff in how far south thicker smoke reaches. Experimental HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecasts indicate some higher concentration values rotating southwestward north of I-80 overnight and into Monday morning. Even the near-surface smoke field from this model indicates some concentration, albeit much less, moving into the northern CWA. While little personal experience in using these specific HRRR fields, it does add a smidge of confidence that some smoke will infiltrate over part of our area. Predicting drifting smoke behavior -- the level of opacity and how low it will reach -- is challenging to say the least. But given some of the aforementioned, confidence in low-level smoke is higher than typical for at least early Monday in northern Illinois. Have for now added haze into the far northern Illinois forecast and bumped up sky cover some for overnight and Monday morning, and noted possibility of reduced air quality on social media platforms. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 239 PM CDT Through Monday night... For the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening, occasionally gusty, nnely winds will continue, with the strongest winds closer to the Lake Michigan shore. Will allow the Lakeshore Flood Advisory to expire on time at 5 PM CDT as waves gradually subside near the shore but have extended the Beach Hazard Statement for the Illinois beaches until late this evening and the Indiana beaches until early tomorrow morning. While wave action is still expected to subside, the trend should be a little slower than previously anticipated with winds remaining a little stronger over the lake into tonight. Dry conditions should prevail tonight through Monday night as broad high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes spreads south and east across the area. Deep layer drier air and large scale subsidence will support abundant sunshine Monday. With winds remaining, generally easterly to northeasterly, locations neat the lake will be cooler than inland locations. Highs inland should be in the lower 80s while highs along the lake only reach the lower 70s. Clear skies and diminishing winds west of the should allow lows tonight to drop into the upper 50s west of the Fox Valley. Winds should remain a little stronger over the rest of the CWA, limiting lows to the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM... 222 PM CDT Tuesday through Sunday... The quiescent stretch of weather will continue into Tuesday as we`ll remain under the influence of a dry and subsident airmass. Shortwave ridging will gradually begin to build east of the region through the afternoon, but latest indications are that very dry air in the 800-600 mb layer will preclude any noteworthy precipitation chances through the daytime hours. Fairly weak low- level flow should allow a lake breeze to push inland trough the afternoon, keeping high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s near the lakeshore while mid to even upper 80s remain prevalent inland. Things will begin to change more noticeably Tuesday night and into Wednesday, however, with the approach of a fairly pronounced shortwave which--with a fair degree of agreement--is slated to pinwheel across the Upper Midwest into Wednesday morning. While the low-level mass response ahead of this feature across Illinois doesn`t look to be all that robust (925-850 mb flow never really increases past 20 kts Tuesday night and into Wednesday), a notable moisture gradient immediately to our west will slosh eastward as south-southwesterly winds return. Low to mid 70s dewpoints should build across the CWA through Wednesday afternoon as a marked airmass change takes place. Guidance supports temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s during the afternoon. Depending on the amount of cloud cover ahead of this incoming shortwave/cold front, temperatures could conceivably nose into the lower 90s within the thermal ridge ahead of the front leading to heat indices pushing the century mark in spots. The associated increase in mid-level flow with the approach of the aforementioned shortwave will also foster an environment that will be conditionally supportive of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. While surface dewpoints look quite high, the overall depth of this higher moisture doesn`t look all that impressive on forecast soundings with dry air lingering above 850 mb. In addition, on its current trajectory, the large scale forcing for ascent associated with this shortwave should remain displaced to our north as the core of the mid-level height falls spread across northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior. Still, a cold front may come through during peak heating, so we`ll need to keep tabs on this system given the dynamics associated with it. Chance PoPs look good area-wide Wednesday afternoon. Things should temporarily quiet down behind this system as high pressure builds in overhead to close out the week. Forecast uncertainty begins to build over the weekend as a belt of faster northwesterly mid-level flow sets up overhead. As this occurs, guidance indicates steepening mid-level lapse rates at the edge of an expansive EML plume. At the same time, moisture will once again build northward. This could set the stage for another active ring of fire pattern with several MCSs riding the instability gradient. Global guidance hints at some potential towards Saturday night and into Sunday. Carlaw && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Dry and VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds expected to diminish this evening, with a light east northeast wind then likely through the period. Rodriguez && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ014 until 10 PM Sunday. IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002 until 5 AM Monday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...Northerly Is. to Michigan City IN until 5 AM Monday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
844 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to lower PoPs through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Convective activity has begun to diminish across the area this evening with the loss of heating, as well as due to the expansive coverage of convective outflow. Latest high-resolution guidance maintains best storm chances through tonight over the eastern Permian Basin and down toward the Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley, and given current trends, find it hard to disagree. Thus, have made an update to lower PoPs overnight tonight. While storms remain possible, the potential for strong to severe storms continues to decrease, with brief heavy rain and gusty winds remaining the main concerns. The remainder of the forecast through tonight looks to be on track. Updated products will be out shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ DISCUSSION... See 00Z Aviation Discussion below. AVIATION... Area radars show a chaotic convective environment at the moment, w/cells kicking out boundaries at random. As such, current winds are not much representative outside of local influences. Generally, winds will veer to SW-W over the next 24 hours as leeside troughing commences on the Front Range. A widespread cu field is forecast to develop each day, w/bases generally ~ 4.5 - 7 kft AGL. W/multiple boundaries in play, confidence is low as to convective timing/placement. Any convection that does develop will likely be confined to hvy rainfall/gusty winds. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ DISCUSSION... Visible imagery indicates that clouds are fairly widespread across the area, but there are/have been breaks. Surface based instability has been limited earlier by cloud cover, but 12Z NAM12 sounding shows high temps around 90 and that the cap will erode well before 21Z. Primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis was across the wrn areas and will move e during the diurnal heating cycle. The mtns are expected to serve as a focus for tstms today and steering flow is ne. Chance PoPs still look ok, HRRR and to a lesser degree RAP13 and 00Z ECMWF have shown storms developing across the ern 1/3 of CWFA before 21Z, presumably in warmer and more moist environment, and recent radar/satellite trends confirm models. Outflow boundaries could result in new development too and local increased coverage. We made tweaks to PoPs for rest of afternoon. Similar to last night we see the possibility for SHRA/TSRA to continue through the night as the mid-level theta-e ridge tracks e across the CWFA though the night. Local heavy rain and downburst winds continue to be the main concern. Drier conditions will slowly work from w to e on Mon favoring slight chance PoPs INVOF lingering moist axis across the far e-s CWFA. High temps on Mon will quickly warm back to 95-100 e of the mtns. The warming/drying trend will be more pronounced Tue/Wed with highs mostly 100-105 e of the mtns. Models are still in good agreement that the subtropical ridge will build nw and expand Thur-Sunday. GFS still develops precip Wed night- Thur night which seems overdone for now. High temps are expected to moderate some at least across PB where 7h temps mostly remain 13C or less which can and does occur with deep easterly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 94 73 101 / 30 30 10 10 Carlsbad 68 96 69 100 / 20 0 0 10 Dryden 73 95 74 99 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 70 94 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 67 90 68 94 / 20 0 0 10 Hobbs 66 94 67 100 / 20 10 0 10 Marfa 60 88 61 92 / 20 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 95 72 102 / 20 20 10 10 Odessa 70 96 72 102 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 69 98 70 104 / 20 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 84
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Currently...Some slow-moving storms have developed over the high terrain as well as the far southeast corner of the state this afternoon, but even though the region warmed quicker and more thoroughly as compared to yesterday, convection has been meager so far. Dewpoints are in the 50s for much of the plains, but in the 60s along the KS border so llvl moisture remains. Temps have warmed into the 80s to near 90F for the plains as of 3 pm, and in the 70s for the high valleys. Tonight...Latest HRRR model runs indicate that convection will continue to percolate over the higher terrain and adjacent plains until around midnight tonight before diminishing. Therefore, area burn scars will need to still be watched through the evening for any storms that develop, since storms will remain slow-moving. Plan on partially clearing skies overnight, though there may be some patchy low clouds in the San Luis Valley tonight. Lows tonight will cool into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...Southwest flow aloft will continue across the Four Corners and Colorado through the short term, as the upper trough over the western third of the country persists. The ridge of high pressure located over TX and OK will start to weaken and flatten though through the day tomorrow, as a shortwave tracks across Colorado. This disturbance is forecast to help kick off convection across the forecast area by midday, then track east across the plains through the evening. Convection is expected to be scattered over the mts, isolated over the plains, and the best area for storm activity will be over the Rampart Range and Palmer Divide where storm activity is likely. Day 2 severe weather outlook by SPC paints the Marginal area clipping El Paso and Kiowa Counties. Plan on maximum temps to climb a few degrees higher on Monday compared to Sunday, into the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Moore .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .Monday Night and Tuesday...Upper trough moves across the northern Rockies Monday evening through Tuesday. Main effect of the trough is to advect drier middle level air into the region from the west. In addition, weak westerly surface flow on the plains will advect the low level moisture to the east. As a result, expect a dry and warm day over the CWA. Only some very spotty thunderstorms are possible over the eastern mountains and Palmer Divide with very light precipitation. .Wednesday through Sunday...Models and ensemble means agree with a upper high developing over the four corners region. This pattern is typical of July, allowing for monsoon moisture to gradually get ingested into the upper high and recirculate around the upper high. In addition, there could be occasional cold fronts moving into the eastern plains bringing low level moisture into the eastern plains. On Wednesday, the first cold front will pass over the eastern plains bringing an increase in low level moisture. Atmosphere looks to be capped on the plains with the warm air aloft, and precipitation chances will be mostly confined to the over and near the mountains. The amount of mid level moisture gradually increases during the week and into the weekend with another weak cold front moving over the plains on Saturday. NBM continues to have the best chances for diurnal convection over and near the mountains with lower chances further east. This pattern will increase the coverage of precipitation, but these does appear to be a substantial influx of moisture. As a result, area average QPF values will be relatively low. There could be a few cells which can produce some locally heavy downpours, and these will only be of concern over the flash flood prone burn scars. With the warm air aloft, expect temperatures to be near or slightly above seasonal values. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 VFR conditions expected across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain this aftn, then affect the TAF sites between 21-23z. Storms should clear out of the San Luis Valley by 03z, while showers will linger along the I-25 corridor until around 06z before exiting to the east. Conditions will become MVFR to at times IFR under heavier showers and storms. Models are hinting at the possibility of some low clouds in the San Luis Valley overnight tonight, so included FEW015 at KALS starting at 07z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ The afternoon convection has quickly diminished earlier this evening as the bndry lyr has stabilized, with the RGB satellite imagery depicting that much of the convective debris has thinned rapidly as well. Mostly quiet conditions are expected tonight although a weak upper level trough/circulation will linger across portions of SW AR/N LA before weakening during the day Monday. Although the 00Z NAM depicts dry conditions overnight, the latest runs of the HRRR as well as the earlier runs of the HREF still suggest that isolated convection may redevelop late tonight near this feature along an area of H850-700 theta-e ridging near the residual cold pool which is still pronounced in the sfc theta-e analysis extending from the Red River Valley of extreme NE TX/SE OK SE into extreme Srn AR/N LA. Thus, despite having dropped pops through 06Z areawide, did retain slight chance pops late tonight along this corridor which may focus isolated convection redevelopment. Did have to lower min temps a tad tonight over the rain-cooled areas given the 02Z obs, with the warmest temps expected over the Wrn sections of E TX which were untouched with the convection/associated large outflow bndry that propagated SSW earlier this evening before washing out. Also lowered sky conditions this evening, but some AC development should increase late tonight near the aforementioned upper level feature. Also can`t rule out patchy FG development overnight as well over the rain-cooled areas, although this may be tempered late tonight with the additional elevated cloud cover redevelopment expected. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ AVIATION... VFR conditions should continue through much if not all of the 08/00Z TAF period. The convection continues to quickly diminish attm as the air mass has stabilized, with any isolated redevelopment limited to portions of SE OK/adjacent sections of extreme NE TX, but well away from any of the area terminals. However, areas of AC and cirrus cigs will linger over the region overnight, with the AC possibly increasing late tonight across portions of SW AR/N LA/adjacent NE TX near a weak upper level disturbance. Isolated to sct convection may redevelop after 06Z Monday across portions of SE TX/SW AR mainly N of the TXK terminal, but may fill in SE into Scntrl AR/possibly extreme Nrn LA after 09Z. However, low confidence precludes mention for the TXK/ELD/MLU terminals attm. Should the AC and cirrus cigs thin late, patchy FG may also develop across SW AR/Ncntrl LA where extensive rains fell earlier today. Also can`t rule out brief IFR/low MVFR cigs by/after 12Z across portions of Lower E TX, primarily affecting the LFK terminal. Otherwise, a sct cu field should develop by late morning/midday with isolated to widely sct convection again possible during the afternoon over portions of N LA/SW AR/adjacent NE TX/SE OK. But again, low confidence precludes mention for these potentially affected terminals attm, but coverage of any convection should be considerably less than what was observed earlier today. Lt/vrb winds tonight will become WSW 4-7kts after 14Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 94 77 94 / 10 20 10 10 MLU 74 95 76 96 / 20 30 20 10 DEQ 73 91 73 93 / 20 30 20 10 TXK 72 92 74 93 / 20 30 10 10 ELD 71 91 71 95 / 20 30 20 10 TYR 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 10 GGG 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 10 LFK 73 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15